We have provided a first glimpse into this problem, but in the end it is up to experiment to discover new physics in multiplicity distributions at the AGS.

Summary and Conclusion
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We have estimated the probability that hard nucleon-nucleon collisions initiate the formation of seeds of quark-gluon plasma at AGS energies. Based on our previous studies we know that these will grow rapidly to convert most of the superheated hadronic matter to quark-gluon plasma. Our estimates are based on reasonable assumptions and approximations to the kinetic theory of hadronic physics. Better estimates could be made using event simulators like RQMD and ARC together with more detailed knowledge of multi-particle production in nucleon-nucleon collisions. We find that anywhere from 1% to 100% of central Au + Au collisions should lead to significant quark-gluon plasma formation. A major assumption is that there is a phase transition and that it is first order.

We have already proposed that the formation of plasma in rare events should have an observable consequence for hadron interferometry, deuteron production, and the meson multiplicity distribution. In this paper we have studied the effect on the multiplicity distribution. It would be observable as a shoulder or second maximum 