result strongly depends on the prior distribution we instead use the inflection point of the sigmoid function at $$\label{eq:sig-inflection}
  1-\left[(T-1)/(MT-1)\right]^{1/T}$$ as a more conservative estimate, which for the case of our simulations is located at approximately $6.9\times 10^{-3}$. The inverse of $r$ corresponds to the mean time to extinction. From our considerations we, hence, expect the mean time to extinction for the scenarios marked by red squares in Figure \[fig:balanced\] to be below $6.9^{-1}\times 10^3\approx 145$ and the respective value for the conditions marked green to be in the order of $2\times 10^7$ or larger. Intermediate values are expected for the conditions marked yellow in the individual plots. Figure \[fig:E50-itime\] demonstrates, that assumptions we needed to make seem to hold and that the estimates indeed reflect the underlying extinction statistics to a great extent.

Obviously the classification of the conditions by the three scenarios to a meaningful extent reflects the extinction risks of the metapopulation in a sense, that Figure \[fig:balanced\] succeeds to highlight the main results. From the bounds for the mean extinction times to extinction derived above for the respective classes we can conclude that metapopulations in the red regions almost surely go extinct within a short time, 