the smallest after an acceleration phase which happens around 5 minutes. As an example, on the figure \[fig:traj\], we can distinguish three main behaviors: the initial climb from 0s. to approximately 200s, a short acceleration phase from 200s. to 300s. and the common behavior after 300s. From figure \[fig:roc\], we can see that the initial climb is characterized with high variability in the rate of climb and an acceleration phase between 50s. and 100s., shown by a huge decrease in the rate of climb. During this phase, the predicted rate of climb is far from reality for both parameter sets. Thereafter, both models capture the acceleration phase and finally, they average the rate of climb during the common behavior, which fits well the positions as shown on figure \[fig:traj\].

Another interesting result is the evolution of the standard deviation, which is in parentheses, for the model with nominal values. It increases with time from 2 min. to 15 min. and afterwards, it seems to stabilize around 9 FL. This can be interpreted as an uncertainty cone, which is often used in the air traffic community, but here, we can see that the cone stops to grow at 15 minutes and 