AEP uncertainty components, using data for over 470 wind plants. While in the analysis we focus on operational AEP calculation, we expect that the results from this analysis—namely, the potential identification of correlated uncertainty components—can be equally relevant for informing and improving preconstruction AEP methods.

In Section 2, we first describe the data sources used in this analysis (wind plant operational data and reanalysis products), the Monte Carlo approach to quantify single uncertainty components in operational AEP, and the approaches used to combine these uncertainty components. Section 3 presents the main results of our analysis in terms of uncertainty contributions and correlation among the different components. We conclude and suggest future work in Section 4.

Data and Methods
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Wind plant Operational Data and Reanalysis Products
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Operational wind plant energy production data for this analysis are obtained from the publicly available Energy Information Administration (EIA) 923 database [@eia18]. This database provides reporting of monthly net energy production from all power plants in the United States, including wind plants. More than 670 unique wind plants are available from this data set.

Long-term wind speed data (needed to perform the long-term or windiness correction in an AEP estimate) are used from 