say first how it is applied to yield probabilities attached to values of local beables in a space-time region 1 and then what it would be for these to be altered by specification of values of local beables in a space-like separated region 2. This is not a straightforward matter. The Born rule may be correctly applied to yield more than one chance for the same event in region 1, and there is more than one way to understand the requirement that these chances be unaltered by what happens in region 2. As we’ll see, the upshot is that while Born rule probabilities do violate ([Factorizability]{}) (or (\[FactorizabilitySU\])) here, this counts as a violation of (LC) (or (LC)$_{SU}$) only if that condition is applied in a way that is not motivated by (IP)’s prohibition of space-like causal influences.

Probability and chance
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Bell credited his formulation of local causality (LC) with avoiding the “rather vague notions” of cause and effect by replacing them with a condition of probabilistic independence. The connection to (IP)’s motivating talk of ‘cause’ and ‘effect’ is provided by the thought that a cause alters (and typically raises) the chance of its effect. But this connection can 