quantify that ignoring these correlations leads to an underestimation of total AEP uncertainty of, on average, 0.1%, and as large as 0.5% for specific sites. Although these are not large increases, these would still impact wind plant financing rates; further, we expect these values to increase for wind plants in complex terrain. Based on these results, we conclude that correlations between the identified uncertainty components should be considered when computing the total AEP uncertainty.'
bibliography:
- 'biblio.bib'
title: 'Operational-Based Annual Energy Production Uncertainty: Are its Components Actually Uncorrelated?'
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Introduction
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Calculations of wind plant annual energy production (AEP)—whether based on preconstruction data before a wind power plant is built or on operational data after a wind plant has started its operations—are vital for wind plant financial transactions. Preconstruction estimates of AEP are needed to secure and set the terms for new project financing, whereas operational estimates of long-term AEP are required for important wind plant transactions, such as refinancing, purchasing/selling, and mergers/acquisitions. The need for AEP analyses of wind plants is increasing because global wind capacity increased to 539 GW in 2017, representing 11% and 91% increases over 1-year and 5-year periods, respectively; capacity is expected to increase by 