fei75766_ch18_569-609.indd 576  02/24/20 10:50 AM
Part VI    Learning-Cognitive Theories576
physical stimuli alone determined behavior, thentwoindividuals would respond in
exactly thesame waytoidentical stimuli. Ifpersonal traits weresolely responsible for
behavior, thenaperson would always respond inaconsistent andcharacteristic fash-
ion,eventodifferent events. Because neither ofthese conditions isvalid, something 
other thantheenvironment orpersonal traits must shape behavior. Rotter’s social 
learning theory hypothesizes thattheinteraction between person andenvironment is
acrucial factor inshaping behavior.
Thepsychological situation is“acomplex setofinteracting cuesacting upon an
individual foranyspecific timeperiod” (Rotter, 1982, p.318). People donotbehave 
inavacuum; instead, theyrespond tocueswithin theirperceived environment. These 
cuesserve todetermine forthem certain expectancies forbehavior-reinforcement 
sequences aswellasforreinforcement-reinforcement sequences. Thetimeperiod for
thecuesmayvaryfrom momentary tolengthy; thus, thepsychological situation isnot
limited bytime. One’s marital situation, forexample, mayberelatively constant over
alongperiod oftime, whereas thepsychological situation faced byadriver’s spinning 
outofcontrol onanicyroadmaybeextremely short. Thepsychological situation 
must beconsidered, along withexpectancies andreinforcement value, indetermining 
theprobability ofagiven response.
Basic Prediction Formula
Asahypothetical means ofpredicting specific behaviors, Rotter proposed abasic 
formula thatincludes allfourvariables ofprediction. Theformula represents an
idealistic rather thanapractical means ofprediction, andnoprecise values can
beplugged intoit.Consider thecaseofLaJuan, anacademically gifted college 
student whoislistening toadullandlengthy lecture byoneofherprofessors. To
theinternal cuesofboredom andtheexternal cuesofseeing slumbering classmates, 
what isthelikelihood thatLaJuan willrespond byresting herhead onthedeskin
anattempt tosleep? Thepsychological situation alone isnotresponsible forher
behavior, butitinteracts withherexpectancy forreinforcement plusthereinforce -
ment value ofsleep inthatparticular situation. LaJuan’s behavior potential can
beestimated byRotter’s (1982, p.302) basic formula fortheprediction ofgoal-
directed behavior:
BPx1,s1,ra = f(Ex1,ra,s1+RV
a,s1)
Thisformula isread: Thepotential forbehavior xtooccur insituation 1inrelation 
toreinforcement aisafunction oftheexpectancy thatbehavior xwillbefollowed by
reinforcement ainsituation 1andthevalue ofreinforcement ainsituation 1.
Applied toourexample, theformula suggests thatthelikelihood (behavior poten -
tial,orBP)thatLaJuanwillrestherheadonherdesk(behavior x)inadullandboring 
classwithother students slumbering (thepsychological situation, ors1)withthegoalof
sleep (reinforcement, orra)isafunction ofherexpectation thatsuchbehavior (Ex)will
befollowed bysleep (ra)inthisparticular classroom situation (s1),plusameasure ofhow
highly shedesires tosleep (reinforcement value, orRV a)inthisspecific situation (s).
Because precise measurement ofeachofthese variables maybebeyond thescientific 
study ofhuman behavior, Rotter proposed astrategy forpredicting general behaviors.Final PDF to printer