fei75766_ch18_569-609.indd 573  02/24/20 10:50 AM
Chapter 18     Rotter and Mischel: Cognitive Social Learning Theory573
thattheirbehaviors areadvancing them toward goals. Forexample, most college stu-
dents haveagoalofgraduation andarewilling toendure stress, tension, andhard
work inorder toreach thatgoal. Rather thanreducing tension, theprospect ofseveral 
difficult years ofcollege classes promises toincrease it.
Other things being equal, people aremost strongly reinforced bybehaviors 
thatmove them inthedirection ofanticipated goals. Thisstatement refers toRot-
ter’sempirical law of effect, which “defines reinforcement asanyaction, condition, or
event which affects theindividual’s movement toward agoal” (Rotter &Hochreich, 
1975, p.95).
Rotter’s fifthassumption isthatpeople are capable of anticipating events. 
Moreover, theyusetheir perceived movement inthedirection oftheanticipated 
event asacriterion forevaluating reinforcers. Beginning withthese fivegeneral 
assumptions, Rotter builtapersonality theory thatattempts topredict human 
behavior.
Predicting Specific Behaviors
Because Rotter’s primary concern wastheprediction ofhuman behavior, hesug-
gested fourvariables thatmust beanalyzed inorder tomake accurate predictions in
anyspecific situation. These variables arebehavior potential, expectancy, reinforce -
ment value, andthepsychological situation. Behavior potential refers tothelikelihood 
thatagiven behavior willoccur inaparticular situation; expectancy isaperson’s 
expectation ofbeing reinforced; reinforcement value istheperson’s preference fora
particular reinforcement; andthepsychological situation refers toacomplex pattern of
cuesthataperson perceives during aspecific timeperiod.
Behavior Potential
Broadly considered, behavior potential (BP)isthepossibility thataparticular response 
willoccur atagiven timeandplace. Several behavior potentials ofvarying strengths 
existinanypsychological situation. Forexample, asMegan walks toward arestau -
rant,shehasseveral behavioral potentials. Shemight passbywithout noticing theres-
taurant; actively ignore it;stoptoeat;think about stopping toeat,butgoon;examine 
thebuilding andcontents withaconsideration topurchase it;orstop, goinside, and
robthecashier. ForMegan, inthissituation, thepotential forsome ofthese behaviors 
would approach zero, some would beverylikely, andothers would beinbetween 
these extremes. How canaperson predict which behaviors aremost orleastlikely to
occur? 
The behavior potential in any situation is a function of both expectancy and rein -
forcement value. Ifaperson wishes toknow thelikelihood thatMegan willrobthe
cashier rather thanpurchase therestaurant orstoptoeat,forexample, wecould hold
expectancy constant andvaryreinforcement value. Ifeachofthese behavior poten -
tialscarried a70%expectancy ofbeing reinforced, thenaperson could make apredic -
tionabout theirrelative probability ofoccurrence based solely onthereinforcement 
value ofeach. Ifholding upthecashier carries apositive reinforcement value greater 
thanordering foodorbuying therestaurant, thenthatbehavior hasthegreatest occur -
rence potential. Final PDF to printer