872 vIII. EMERGING  ISSuES AND  NEW  DIRECTIONS
measures of adolescent risky behavior for 
dropouts, GED recipients, and high school 
graduates. On this index, GED recipients 
are nearly identical to high school dropouts.
The skills that cause GED recipients to 
drop out of high school manifest themselves 
in many other life outcomes. One potential 
benefit of the GED certificate is that it opens 
doors to postsecondary education. Figure 
42.9 shows postsecondary educational at -
tainment for GED recipients and high school 
graduates. About 40% of GED recipients 
enroll in a 2- or 4-year college. Nearly half 
drop out within the first year. Only 3–4% 
earn a BA or AA degree by age 40.
GED recipients lack persistence in a vari -
ety of tasks in life. Figure 42.10 shows the 
survival rates in employment (overall), em -
ployment in a given job, marriage, and in 
the condition of not having been incarcer -
ated. GED recipients tend to exit employ -
ment, become divorced, and enter jail at rates similar to those of high school drop -
outs, while high school graduates are much 
more persistent.
Adjusting for their differences in cognitive 
ability, male GED recipients perform virtu -
ally the same as high school dropouts in the 
labor market. Figure 42.11 shows (a) hourly 
wages and (b) annual earnings of male GED 
recipients and high school graduates com -
pared to high school dropouts for differ -
ent age groups. The first set of bars shows 
outcomes after adjusting for age, race, and 
region of residence. The second set of bars 
shows effects after additionally adjusting for 
scores on the AFQT. The third set of bars 
shows the effects after additionally adjusting 
for standard measures of family background. 
GED recipients and high school graduates 
outperform dropouts in regressions that 
only adjust for age, race, and region of resi -
dence. After adjusting for cognitive ability, 
GED recipients are indistinguishable from 
FIGURE 42.9. Postsecondary educational attainment across education groups through age 40 
(NLSY79)—Males. Source: Heckman et al. (2014, Chapter 4), NLSY79. Note: The graph shows 
postsecondary educational attainment of GED recipients and high school graduates (HSG). Variable 
definitions: “Some College” represents people who entered any postsecondary institution ever. “Some 
College, More Than 1 Year” represents people who completed at least 1 year of some postsecondary 
education ever. “AA” represents people who obtained associate’s degrees ever. “BA” represents people 
who obtained bachelor’s degrees ever. “BA” also includes people with higher education: MA, PhD, and 
professional degrees. Tests of significance: The estimates for GED recipients and HSG are statistically 
significantly different at the 5% level for all but attainment of the AA degree.
0 .2 .4 .6 .8Proportion
Some
CollegeSome College,
More Than 1 YearAA BA
GED HSG SE