CHAPTER 1
Facts and Theories
of Adult Development
Suppose for a moment that people consulted lifespan developmental
psychologists as they do fortune tellers—to get a glimpse of their ownfuture. What would we tell them to expect as they grow older? Are therepredictable crises ahead? Are they likely to continue to mature andgrow , or is it all downhill from here? Will their basic natures and tem-peraments remain essentially as they are, or will internal unfolding orchanging circumstances (such as wars, illness, or technological innova-tions) reshape existing personalities? Do married couples grow apartwith the years, or do they come to resemble each other in personality asthey sometimes seem to do in appearance?
If asked to make these kinds of predictions for individuals, we
would hedge—and properly so. We would point out that the scientificstudy of adulthood is young and little is known with certainty . Only inthe past three decades have a substantial number of investigators beenactive in the field, and these have succeeded mainly in framing usefulquestions, not in providing definitive answers to them. We would alsoemphasize that science is concerned with generalizations, not specifics.Epidemiologists, for example, can tell us the life expectancy of the aver -
age man or the average woman and some of the factors (such as smok -
ing and exercise) that influence longevity , but they certainly cannot pre -
dict the exact age of death for any particular individual. Too many
people smoke and drink and live to 90 and too many athletes die youngto allow anything more than statements of probability .
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