Variahility in Horse Race Po Ils,
The polling variability in 2004 falls close to that seen in 1984 and 1988, when the average spread was 2.2% and 2.3%, respectively, and slightly above the election of 2000 (at 1.7%).
The greatest variability in the polls was seen in 1992, when Ross Perot’s on-again, off- again candidacy ­ and Bill Clinton’s rising support in the June-July time frame ­ resulted in average polling variability of 2.9 percentage points. By contrast, the 1996 campaign, when Clinton consistently held a large lead over challenger Bob Dole, saw the least variation from one poll to the other (an average spread of 1.2 percentage points).
Variahility in Horse Race Po Ils,  | 1980 --2004  | I  | 5 CONTERTION I  | 25  | is  | 1980 1984 1988 1997 1996 2000 2004  | Republican candidate 0 Democnitic candidate  | Baxdod polla cod ducced lune aadjuly ofeach year 