Probabilistic forecasts create impression of more decisive electoral victory Average self-reported certainty, anticipated vote share, and estimated likelihood of winning Experiment: Participants were presented with a hypothetical election forecast One group was given ability" a candidate 's expected "vote share another group was given the proba ability" of winning and a third was given both This shows given example had 87% results probal when bility the of winning candidate results was projected full given to get of 55% of share the vote and had an 87% probal bility of winning; results for full range of vote share projections and proba bilistic forecasts are available in the paper (see below).
The new study finds that numbers like these can leave people with the impression that the race is far less competitive than when they see polling data presented as the percentage of the vote they are expected to get – something familiar to the public.
Probabilistic forecasts create impression of more  | decisive electoral victory  | Average self-reported certainty, anticipated vote share, and  | estimated likelihood of winning  | Experiment: Participants were presented with a hypothetical election forecast  | One group was given ability" a candidate 's expected "vote share another group was  | given the proba ability" of winning and a third was given both This shows  | given example had 87% results probal when bility the of winning candidate results was projected full given to get of 55% of share the vote and  | had an 87% probal bility of winning; results for full range of vote share  | projections and proba bilistic forecasts are available in the paper (see below).  | FORECAST SHOWN  | to PARTICIPANTS  | Certainty about election outcome  | Vote share  | Both  | Proba bility  | 60%  | 70%  | 50%  | 55%  | 65%  | 75%  | Anticipated candidate vote share  | Vote share  | Both  | ACTUAL VOTE SHARE  | Probability  | 50%  | 55%  | 60%  | 65%  | 70%  | Likelihood candidate winning  | Vote share  | actual LIKELIHOOD  | Both  | OF WINNING  | Probability  | 50%  | 60%  | 70%  | 80%  | 90%  | Note: For full results see Westwood, Sean, Yphtach Lelkes and Solomon Messing.  | 2018 "Projecting public. confidence: How the Sean, probabilistic convabstac-3110044 horse race confuses and  | demobilizes the public. (https:!] papers ssm. convabstac-3110044  | Source: Pew Research Center ana lysis of survey experiment conducted via the  | American Trends Panel, March 2017 Estimates not weighted.  | PEW RESEARCH CENTER 