Global remittances in 2020 projected to decline more than during the Great Recession in every region of the world % decline in remittance inflows to low- and middle- income countries by world region in 2009 and 2020 (projected)
With many nations under stay-at-home orders and work restrictions due to the COVID-19 crisis, remittances – money sent by migrants to their home countries – are projected to fall by a record 20% this year. This decline, from a high of $714 billion in 2019 to an estimated $572 billion in 2020, comes as the world’s largest remittance-sending nations have experienced especially stringent lockdowns, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of data from the World Bank, Oxford University and Google.
The decline in remittances is projected to hit all regions of the world, as many of the 272 million international migrants lose their jobs and stop sending money home. Remittances to European and Central Asian countries the World Bank defines as low and middle income are projected to decline by 28%, while slightly smaller declines are expected for low- and middle-income nations in sub-Saharan Africa (23%), South Asia (22%), Latin America and the Caribbean (19%), and the Middle East and North Africa (20%), according to the World Bank. These projections are based on information about prevailing wages and the number of international migrants in each country.
It is not unusual for worldwide remittances from migrants to ebb and flow with economic circumstances in sending countries. In 2009, during the Great Recession, global remittances declined 5% as economies shrank. And in 2016, remittances fell 1%, driven by weak growth in many countries and declining oil prices. Remittances can also increase during hard times in migrants’ home countries. For example, remittances to Yemen more than doubled between 2011 and 2019 amid a civil war in that country.
Global remittances in 2020 projected  | to decline more than during the Great  | Recession in every region of the world  | % decline in remittance inflows to low- and middle-  | income countries by world region in 2009 and 2020  | (projected)  | 2009  | 5  | East Asia and Pacific  | 2020 (proj.)  | 13  | 11  | Latin America and Caribbean  | 19  | 6  | Middle East and North Africa  | 20  | +5  | South Asia  | 22  | Sub-Saharan Africa  | 23  | 15  | Europe and Central Asia  | 28  | Source: World Bank  | PEW RESEARCH CENTER 