Early views of the general: More favor a Democrat than Trump, but just a quarter think a Democrat will win % ofregistered voters who say they will
Currently, Democrats are more definite about their general election preferences than are Republicans: 73% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters say they will definitely vote for the party’s nominee, while 59% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they will definitely vote for Trump. The survey was conducted before Trump’s Senate impeachment trial. (See this report for views of the Senate trial and Donald Trump.)
Yet Republicans are far more confident of victory in November. Nearly four-in-ten Republican voters (38%) think Trump will definitely win reelection, while another 41% say he will probably win. Among Democratic voters, just 11% say the Democratic candidate will definitely win, while 32% see a Democratic victory as probable. Democratic voters are far more likely than Republicans to decline to express an opinion about the outcome (34% vs. 15%).
Early views of the general: More favor a Democrat than  | Trump, but just a quarter think a Democrat will win  | % ofregistered voters who say they will  | Vote for Trump  | Vote for Democrat  | Definitely Probably  | Definitely Probably  | DK  | Total  | 28  | 10 38 NET  | 38  | 10 48 NET  | 13  | Rep/Lean Rep  | 19  | 79  | 15  | 59  | 6  | Dem/Lean Dem 2  | 88 10  | 73  | 15  | % ofregistered voters who think  | will win the 2020 presidential election  | Trump  | Democratic candidate  | Definitely Probably  | Definitely Probably  | DK  | Total 19  | 30  | 49 NET  | 19  | 25 NET  | 26  | Rep/Lean Rep  | 41  | 80  | 38  | 15  | 5  | Dem/Lean Dem 20  | 11 32  | 22  | 44  | 34  | Notes: Based on registered voters. No answer responses not shown.  | Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 6 19, 2020  | PEW RESEARCH CENTER 