Figure 1 Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Candidate Preferences in States Where Hispanics Changed the Outcome
Sen. Hillary Clinton would not have won primaries in the nation’s two largest states—California and Texas—if Latinos had not turned out in such large numbers and if they had not voted so heavily in her favor, according to an analysis of exit polling data. She also would not have carried a third state—New Mexico—without strong Latino support. In all three states, Latinos accounted for at least 30% of the total votes cast in the Democratic primary, and Clinton outpolled Sen. Barack Obama among Latinos by a ratio of about two-to-one.
In Tuesday’s primary in Texas, Clinton’s winning margin of votes among Latinos was nearly three times as great as her overall statewide lead in votes. Calculations based on exit poll data show that Obama carried Texas by 55% to 44% among all non-Latino voters. However, Latinos accounted for 32% of votes cast in the Texas primary, up from 24% in 2004. They favored Clinton over Obama by 66% to 32%.
In the Feb. 5 primary in California, Clinton’s winning margin of votes among Latinos was slightly larger than her statewide tally over Obama. Based on calculations made using exit poll data, the vote for Clinton and Obama among all non-Latino voters was a statistical dead heat of 46% to 46%. However, Hispanics made up 30% of the Democratic primary electorate in California, up from 16% in the 2004 Democratic primary. They favored Clinton over Obama by 67% to 32%.
In a tight race, Clinton won New Mexico by only one percentage point. Among Hispanics, however, her winning margin of votes was nine times as great as her overall statewide vote lead. Non-Hispanics voted for Obama 56% to 41%. In contrast, Hispanics favored Clinton 62% to 36%, and they were 35% of all voters.
Figure 1  | Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Candidate Preferences in  | States Where Hispanics Changed the Outcome  | Share of  | Candidate Preference  | All Voters  | Clinton  | (%)  | Obama  | TEXAS  | 100  | All  | 66  | 32  | Hispanics  | 68  | Non-Hispanics  | CALIFORNIA  | 100  | All  | 30  | Hispanics  | 46 46  | 70  | Non-Hispanics  | NEW MEXICO  | 49  | 100  | All  | 48  | 35  | Hispanics  | 65  | Non-Hispanics  | 56  | Source: 2008 National Election Pool state exit polls 