Likely Voters More Ideologically Polarized than Public Overall Ideological consistency among liberal liberal Share of each group likely to vote
The new wave of the panel survey was conducted Sept. 9-Oct. 3 with 3,154 adults who are part of the Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel, a nationally representative group of randomly selected U.S. adults surveyed online and by mail. These respondents are a subset of the more than 10,000 adults interviewed earlier this year as part of a year-long series of reports on political polarization in the American public.
Those who are consistently conservative and liberal, who together make up only about one-in-five (22%) in the general public, make up 36% of those most likely to vote. By contrast, those with mixed opinions will be only 24% of the electorate, although they constitute 39% of the general public. (Click here for details about how ideological consistency is measured.)
Although overall turnout among the public is likely to be around 40%, 73% of those who hold consistently conservative attitudes are likely to vote in the midterm, as are 52% of those with mostly conservative views. As other surveys have found, voters on the left are less politically engaged in this election: 58% of those with consistently liberal views and just 32% of those with mostly liberal attitudes are likely to turn out. And among those with about an equal mix of conservative and liberal attitudes, just 25% are likely to go to the polls.
Likely Voters More Ideologically  | Polarized than Public Overall  | Ideological consistency among  | Consist Mostly  | Mostly Consist  | liberal liberal  | Mixed  | cons cons  | Total 13%  | 21  | 39  | 18  | 9  | Likely voters 19%  | 17  | 24  | 23  | 17  | Share of each group likely to vote  | Consiste ently conse rvative  | 73  | Mostly conservative  | 52  | Mixed  | 25  | Mostly liberal  | 32  | Consiste intly liberal  | 588  | American Trends Panel (wave 7). Survey conducted September 9  | October 3 2014. Based on average Survey historical midterme September ection  | turnoutof 40%  | PEW RESEARCH CENTER 