Close state-level contests are nothing new in U.S. presidential elections Number of states where the winning candidate's popular-vote margin was less than 2 percentage points, by year
Over the 50 presidential elections that have taken place since 1824, the first election for which statewide popular votes were both determinative and reasonably reliably reported, there have been 187 instances in which a state was decided by less than 2 percentage points (our definition of “close” for the purposes of this post). That’s an average of 3.74 states with close races per election.
Close state-level contests are nothing new in U.S.  | presidential elections  | Number of states where the winning candidate's popular-vote  | margin was less than 2 percentage points, by year  | 12  | 8  | 1824  | 1864  | 1904  | 1944  | 1984  | 2020  | Note: Our analysis starts in 1824 the first election for which statewide popular  | votes were both determinative and reasonably reliably reported.  | Source: Pew Research Center ana alysis Election data from Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S  | Presidential Elections, Clerk of the U.S House of Representatives state election  | authorities (2016 and 2020), The Washington Post (2020).  | PEW RESEARCH CENTER 