some of these calculated risks are that : 1 ) youre likely to believe him simply because you would like some chocolate cake , 2 ) that youll actually go get the milk and grab the handle of it in the process and thereby be the victim of his harmless prank by getting peanut butter all over your hand , and , 3 ) that although you may get mad once you find out there really is no cake and you feel foolish , that his chances of being punished any time soon by mom or dad for doing that to you are extremely low since your parents are on vacation and hes been left in charge for the week until they get back .