They are four plus the current year. So, we've got numbers to 2019-20 at the moment, and expect to go to 2020-21.
And what are the universities expecting? What do they anticipate?
Well, for 2017-18, which is the year we're about to end now, they were expecting £38 million income from European students, and approximately £91 million from the various European programme funding sources, and that's about 8 per cent of the total income—£1.5 billion—of the sector. The forecasts are assuming that that continues, albeit that institutions have various scenarios that they have for all sorts of scenarios that we can all speculate on, and, as I mentioned earlier, the balancing act of maintaining infrastructure and resources and staff in the short term is where we are at the moment, or where the sector is at the moment. And there are also signs that the banks and lending institutions are becoming a bit more risk-averse in providing borrowing to institutions, and of more differentiation between individual institutions being made than has possibly been the case in the past. The sector made an operating deficit, again looking at all Welsh institutions collectively last year, 2016-17, of £17 million. That's before other gains and losses. And we're expecting a similar collective level of deficit for this financial year, if not slightly higher. Now, these are managed deficits and we are not currently seeing critical short-term cash availability issues in the sector. However, the increase in funding from Diamond is a key part of enabling the sector to return to longer-term financial sustainability. Short-term challenges can be met if there's a reasonable prospect of future funding. You can manage in the short-term, but there comes a point when the big cost reductions and infrastructure reductions have to be made. And, again, having mentioned the pressures on pay, pensions and other challenges, it is difficult to gauge whether, if those factors come into play as well, some of these cost reductions may have to be made before funding comes in to replace—either Diamond funding or the European replacement funding.
So, would it be fair to say that, in terms of the funding arrangements, and, in terms of the student numbers, one reason why we've got this recruitment problem is this lack of investment in the capital infrastructure that we've seen in recent years because of the financing arrangements from the Welsh Government, and the fee regime that we had previously, and the student finance regime that we had previously, not getting more cash into our Welsh universities perhaps, and that, over the next few years, there's going to have to be much more significant investment in capital if we're to raise the game and be more competitive, yes?