This is based on the UCAS applications and the report that was published at the end of June, 30 June. The European Union-domiciled applicants to Wales have decreased by 8 per cent, which contrasts with a 2 per cent increase for English institutions, and non-EU—so international students, not from Europe—have also decreased by 9 per cent to Welsh institutions, again contrasting with a 7 per cent increase in England. So, those are the signs of changes.
Okay. Could I then just ask you what you see as the main pressures on the Welsh higher education sector at the moment?
The funding position would be the main pressure. The recommendations made by Sir Ian Diamond in his review of higher education funding and student finance are in the process of being implemented, and the changes to the student finance arrangements will take effect from this September. However, the recommendations for re-establishing funding at Welsh institutions are expected to take quite a bit longer. That funding, when it returns to institutions, is intended to re-establish funding for higher cost provision, both full time and part time; reinstate funding for innovation; and maintain, at the very least, the research funding in real terms. Universities, in the meantime, are trying to minimise the cost reductions that they're making in order to maintain the infrastructure, so that when the funding comes they can get the best value out of it. We have announced our funding allocations for 2018-19. For the research and teaching grant, though, we are still funding at a lower level—£12.5 million less—then the starting point for the Diamond report, the 2015-16 starting report. But we expect to be able to start introducing funding from 2019-20 to make a start on implementing Diamond. And it's probably important to note that the Diamond recommendations predated Brexit, therefore the challenges introduced by Brexit are in addition to those that the Diamond report was addressing. The other pressures relate to student recruitment. I mentioned the EU and international students. There is also the start of a reduction, both in Welsh-domiciled and English-domiciled applications to Wales. Enrolments are obviously the key important number, which we'll see later. And the other pressures include pay and pension costs, not least the issues around the universities superannuation scheme pension fund, where there's potentially a significant increase in cost. Increased student expectations for modern facilities and infrastructure bring a requirement for capital expenditure and borrowing, which bring their own pressures. And finally, the uncertainty about potential consequences that could arise from the review in England of fees and funding—the Augar review.
In terms of European Union students and enrolment, is Wales forecast to do less well than England and, if so, why might that be?