Estyn, NAHT, UCAC, NASUWT, WJEC and Qualifications Wales have pointed to the way in which the Government has managed the reforms that have been happening over the past few years as one of the things that has led to some of these difficulties. You mentioned the fact that they come wave upon wave. Well, what about the tsunami of curriculum reform that we're currently facing? That is, how confident can we be that the situation won't deteriorate as the new curriculum is introduced—rather than improve?
That is a very key question, isn't it? We have started to discuss this, specifically in particular in a forum that includes publishers in Wales, with the Welsh Government around the table and Qualifications Wales around the table. I think one of the very interesting questions and important questions is: what will the nature of the information available in April 2019 be in terms of the new curriculum? At what level of detail will it be? To what extent will it be adapted again after April 2019? Is it detailed enough, really, for teachers to start discussing their programmes of teaching, and that we then still have a role with publishers, even though this is for this curriculum and not for qualifications? WJEC has a tradition of publishing resources over the key stages and other key stages as well. I think there is a need to discuss the implications of the timetable as it starts to appear, because there is a need to start teaching the new curriculum in September 2022. If we're talking about a year of preparation, that brings us back to September 2021. If we're talking about working on resources available for that preparation year, we're talking about September 2020. So, the timetable does appear already tight, particularly if there's something that's not quite certain about that curriculum statement in 2019, and that there is a lot of work to turn that into teaching programmes. So, I think it is a key question, and I can't be confident at the moment that this is going to work.
Did you want to come in, Philip?
I think one of the big differences is it's a tsunami we can see coming. So, young people will be assessed for the first time, assuming linear exams, in the summer 2027, which is some way away, and, actually, given the reform process historically, this is probably the most foresight we've seen of a big change like this. There is a big dependency on the curriculum and the curriculum being described in such a way that we can relate qualifications to that curriculum, because qualifications should relate to the curriculum rather than drive the curriculum, so we do need to see something coming out of that. I think, for us, once we've seen the curriculum, and we've got better sight of it, we'll be able to plan things out. We've already started engagement with awarding bodies over the possible supply chain for these new qualifications, and, ultimately, there'll be a go/no-go decision that would need to be made, probably in 2023, which would be that if the conditions don't appear right for safe implementation, then we would make a recommendation to Welsh Government that these reforms are delayed in terms of the qualification, not in terms of the curriculum, for a year to allow the system to be able to catch up. So, we're starting to plan out not only the whole of the process, but also thinking about where we might have to make key decisions.