
No, this is far from clear.  We only have the word of the FBI spokepeople that
a survivor made this claim.  We have the contradictory word of the lawyers who
spoke with the survivors individually that ALL of them agreed that they did
NOT have a suicide pact and did not intentionally start the fire.  In the absense
of any more evidence, I don't see how we can decide who to believe.
Furthermore, its quite possible that there was no general suicide pact and that
some small inner circle took it upon themselves to kill everyone else.
With the state of the area now, we may never know what happened.


Again, we have only the word of the FBI on this claim.  The lawyers who
have also talked to the survors deny that any of them are making that claim.


I will agree on your assessment as to the relative probabilities.  Its more likely
that the BD's started the fire than did the FBI.  But there is currently NO
way to decide what actually happened based on the publically available evidence
(which is nearly none).


   D.   The fire was an started accidentally by the BDs.  I am truely amazed that
        I have heard (or read) of no one suggesting this possibility.
        With all the tear gas and the lack of electical power in the compound and
        the adults wearing gas masks, it had to have been chaotic inside.
        I can easily image someone leaving a lamp too close to something or
        accidentally dropping a lamp or knocking one over.  With the winds, it
        would have quickly gotten out of control.


   No, I think that D is also quite reasonable.  I personally can't really
asses any relative probablities to either of these 3 probabilities although if
forced to bet on the issue, I would probably take an accident (either FBI or
BD) over intential setting of the fire).

   I would also like to add a comment related to the reports that bodies recovered
had gunshot wounds.  The coroner was on the Today Show this morning and categorically
denied that they've reach any such conclusions.  He pointed out that under intense
heat, sufficient pressure builds up in the head that can cause it to explode and
that this can look very much like a massive gunshot wound to the head which is
quite consisted with te reports I've read and heard.

   In short, there's been almost no evidence corroborating any of the many
scenarios as to what happened on Monday.  We should remain skeptical until
more information is available.  


-- 