
Yes.  But this is *irrelevant*.  You're talking about averages, when we
have lots of information about THIS PLAYER IN PARTICULAR to base our
decisions on.

I might as well say "We know that very, very few people are more than 7 feet
tall, so chances are that Manute Bol is really only 6 foot 4."


Why isn't Lopez likely to hit that well?  He hit that well last year (after
adjusting his stats for park and league and such); he hit better (on an
absolute scale) than Olson or Berryhill did.  By a lot.

As for rushing...  If there really is a qualitative difference between the
minors and the majors that requires a period of adjustment (and I don't
believe there is), then wouldn't you rather waste Lopez's 22-year old good
season than his 23-year old very good season or his 24-year-old excellent
season?  The sooner you get him acclimated, the more of his prime you get to
use.


The point was not that 17 AB is a significant sample, but rather that he
hadn't done anything in spring training to cause even a blockhead manager
to question whether his minor league numbers were for real, or to send him
down "until he gets warmed up".


Most players are *never* ready for the bigs.  What does this have to do
with Javy Lopez?


See above.  


But I could apply the same reasoning to Frank Thomas or Barry Bonds.  Most
players aren't that good, so they probably won't be that good this year
either.


And demonstrated inabilities to hit their way out of a soap bubble.


Not superstars, not stars, not even good players.  Maybe average, if we're
being charitable.


Ummm.  Justice is a very fine hitter.  Pendleton might have another big year
in his bat, but he might also spend the season in Hamstring Hell.  Gant is a
big question mark.  The Bream/Hunter platoon is decent (not excellent) and
has rotten OBP or SLG (depending on who's in).  Blauser is a very valuable
bat... for a shortstop.



Wanna bet?  The difference between Lopez's bat and Olson/Berryhill could be
20 or 30 runs over the course of the season.  Given a choice between a player
with experience and a player who can play, I'll take the latter every time.


Just like Keith Mitchell did?


That was me, and you so far your only counter-proposal is that they
really don't understand how good Lopez is, or overvalue experience,
or some combination of the two.  I think my interpretation was more
flattering to the organization.


[Well-argued but inflammatory reply deleted.]

