One-step ahead prediction of computational models.
We conducted the one-step-ahead prediction to compare the predicted results and actual choice behaviors. To generate predictions, we utilized 8000 MCMC samples (2000 samples x 4 chains) drawn from individual posterior distributions to predict the probability of a “Go” choice in each of the four conditions, and averaged the predictions with each participant. Model 3 (7-parameter model) emerged as the best performing model, with a mean correlation coefficient of 0.890.(TIFF)Click here for additional data file.