Results
human movements
POSTERIOR
To assess the effect that human movement has on spatial transmission, we fitted our model to the baseline prevalence, with and without human movements. Panel (Inferred prevalence from surveys of the TUMIKIA project in Kwale province, Kenya (top row), median prevalence of no-movement model fit to baseline data, (middle row), and median prevalence of movement model fit to baseline data (bottom row) at (Posterior median prevalence in each pixel at baseline, plotted against true pixel prevalence, with error bars showing the standard deviation, for the model with movements (To assess the short-term accuracy of the movement model, we ran our model forward from the baseline, using 500 parameter sets drawn from the ABC posterior, and validated against the 12 months and 24 months TUMIKIA trial survey data.In Parameters and sources.Mean baseline, midline and endline pixel prevalence in survey data (with 95% confidence intervals), and models with and without movements.