2.2 Model structure
SECONDARY
Our Markov microsimulation model of ASD was developed using TreeAge (Williamstown, MA). Simulated participants with ASD enter the model at age 2 (health state InterventionDukeACT compared cord blood infusion to placebo and did not find an effect of cord blood treatment on the primary outcome, Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scale-III (VABS-3) socialization subdomain score at 6 months, or any of the pre-specified secondary outcomes [At model initiation, simulated participants are assigned a 6-month change in VABS-3 communication subscale score (SOC vs. CB), based on DukeACT findings. Simulated participants also draw 6-month changes in socialization and daily living subscale scores from the same distributions seen in DukeACT (no difference between SOC and intervention arms). As a conservative measure, we simulate the SOC group as receiving the full increase in VABS-3 subscale scores seen in DukeACT placebo group.