3.5. Individual Predicted “Risk of Progression” and Predicted “High- vs. Low-Risk of Progression” Groups
PD
An equation to calculate a patient’s predicted “risk of progression” derived from the above MV model was as follows:Then, the patients were classified into the “low-” or “high-risk of progression” group if the calculated risk value was lower or higher than the Youden or topleft cut-off. When using the Youden cut-off, 93% (38/41) of PD patients were accurately captured in the “high-risk of progression” group, indicating a high sensitivity of the Youden index (0.93), compared to 71% (29/41) when using the “topleft” cut-off. In contrast, using the topleft cut-off, 74% (64/87) of patients who achieved DC were accurately captured in the “low-risk of progression” group, indicating a high specificity (0.74) of the topleft cut-off, compared to 54% (47/87) when using the “Youden” cut-off (Two example cases showing consistency between the real-world responses and predicted risk of progression are shown in 