Conclusion
fractures, falls injury
We found that a short postal screener can predict falls amongst community-dwelling older people at higher risk of falling, but only with fair accuracy for recurrent falls. Although falls prediction improved with addition of frailty, mental and physical health-related quality of life questionnaires, the gain was marginal against the cost of a longer screener. Prediction of fractures over 12 months improved when adjusted for age, sex and BMI. These variables are simple to collect in the community setting. There is potential for our short postal screener to be used in UK primary care to identify those most at need of referral for further specialist clinical and social support. Nevertheless, a simple screening tool for falls injury with better predictive values is still needed.