Estimated Magnitude of Benefit With Intensive vs Standard Systolic Blood Pressure Treatment Across a Range of Estimated Baseline Risk
cognitive impairment, dementia, PD, amnestic, aMCI
REGRESSION, BLOOD
Solid orange lines represent direct risk magnification, where the absolute risk reduction is directly proportional to the baseline risk assuming a constant relative treatment effect on the hazard ratio scale. Solid blue lines represent the association between average elastic-net Cox proportional hazards regression model–estimated absolute risk difference for each outcome across the full range of baseline risk. The shaded gray areas represent the 95% CIs for the estimated risk difference. The histogram represents the distribution of baseline risk of each outcome in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial population used in the current analysis. The blue circles represent the average observed risk difference for each outcome within quartiles of the Cox proportional hazards regression model–estimated absolute risk difference. The bars represent 95% CIs of the observed risk differences. aMCI indicates amnestic mild cognitive impairment; PD, probable dementia.The results of the hybrid risk- and effect-modeling analyses revealed that discrimination was not substantially improved from the full set, augmented reduced set, or basic reduced set in the primary analysis (eTable 6 in 