Discussion
non-delayed recollections
The main finding of this study was that the MLOIE (i.e., the number of items to be remembered) affects the magnitude of hindsight bias, which supports the study’s tentative hypothesis. The larger the number of things to remember, the higher the hindsight bias. This finding is a simple but first reported contribution to the body of knowledge on hindsight bias.Some causes of the hindsight bias have been proposed based on four strategies for recollecting the initial responses: (1) recalling the old belief [We, however, should be aware that these single strategies could not explain the hindsight bias because complex interactions between multiple mechanisms might cause them [Another explanation is that a working memory load during encoding (i.e., keeping remembering a digit number while reading a story) prevents hindsight bias, probably because the working memory load prevents elaborative thinking during encoding, which impedes convincing feelings and prevents “creeping determinism” in recollection [Previous studies had controlled for the strength of the initial responses’ memory trace by the timing of providing correct information and the timing of recollection. This procedure caused delayed recollections to produce a more substantial hindsight bias than non-delayed recollections [It has been reported that hindsight bias induces undesirable risk perceptions and decision-making outcomes for financial investments [The hindsight bias is often viewed as a cognitive limitation producing unwanted results as a by-product of standard information processing and storage methods. Some studies, however, have suggested that the hindsight bias itself might be an adaptive phenomenon that improves the foresight judgments of individuals in a successively changing environment [As a limitation in the present study, we did not measure working memory. Although any dual task was not performed in the present study, there is a possibility that working memory affected the results. Besides, a small sample size could be another limitation. These limitations should be adequately treated in future studies.