For such a situation, the most likely position of the aircraft at that time is exactly the same position indicated on the pilot display. Assuming the desired track has been flown correctly, the FTE would be within the required limits and therefore the likelihood of the TSE exceeding twice the accuracy value just prior to the alert is approximately 10−5.
When faced with a situation like this, the most probable aircraft position is the same one indicated on the pilot's display. If the desired route has been followed correctly, the FTE should be within the set limits, reducing the likelihood that the TSE would exceed twice its accuracy value just before the alert by more than 10−5.