[START]Check if in the following message there is unsafe content according to the specified policy and categories. Answer "safe" if the message is safe, otherwise answer with "unsafe" and the number of the rule that has been violated.
[BOR]
0: Safe
1: Be civil
2: Good faith argumentation only
3: No posts discouraging people to vote or shaming people for voting
4: No misinformation
5: Posts should be memes
6: No bots, spam or self-promotion

[EOR]
[BOC]
Wheres the bias? Show me or shut  the fuck up cus I'm out here trying to see what the actual data say and you just flappin' your gums.

The analysis is very very very fucking simple:

We're using the Gallup approval data because its the only consistent data longitudinal enough to do this kind of analysis.

Calculate the mean and standard deviation of approval ratings for presidents who won a second term (the average of the 30 days right before the election).

Calculate the mean and standard deviation in approval deltas from the approval at election time (november) relative to now (june). 

Take the presidents current polling, take a random sample from the delta distribution, and add the two numbers together. Calculate the probability that this number was sampled from a "winning re-election distribution". Write that probability down.

Do this many times (I did it 10k times).

You and every one who is in denial about Biden being an un-electable, piece of shit, you-are-causing-trump-to-win-by-running-biden, choice.

Yall are so full of shit its coming out of your ears.
[EOC]
unsafe
1
[END]

Safe Be civil Good faith argumentation only No posts discouraging people to vote or shaming people for voting No misinformation Posts should be memes No bots, spam or self-promotion