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1: Open-ended question
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&gt; We have known lithium reserves[1] that would last an estimated 180 years based on current demand (study from 2011).

That study says nothing about pricing. Just because the reserves exist doesn't mean that they'll be recoverable at economic costs. Furthermore, the extraction capacity doesn't exist right now, and will be very expensive to build up. Though it might be okay, it's not a simple challenge, and is a definite potential stumbling block.

&gt; Revocation of tax credits could happen, but unlikely IMO. It would be more likely we see some sort of federal carbon tax than a revocation of current "green" tax breaks

I doubt that the credits would stay in place if a carbon tax is imposed. 

&gt; Elon is best friends with Larry Page, if anything they're going to partner. Apple is years behind TSLA. They may have cash, but Tesla was first to market here. They can't just throw cash at something and gain 10+ years of IP

The first mover advantage is not nearly the benefit that you imply. See this HBR article on the subject: https://hbr.org/2005/04/the-half-truth-of-first-mover-advantage

You are drastically underestimating the impact of competition. Also, have you actually done the research to understand the real value and protection of Tesla's IP? GM had a viable EV a decade before Tesla was even founded. I'm sure they, as well as many others, have plenty of IP to compete, and while Apple can't necessarily spend their way to instant research results, they can certainly purchase patents and technical talent.

&gt; Margin Compression note is a good point, but to say margins are going to be cut in half is excessive and rampant speculation.

You think that a company is going to be able to maintain a gross margin 2 times higher than one of the current industry leaders? No, a 50% drop is not at all unreasonable. 
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Safe Open-ended question Not offensive: at this point, we do not have the bandwidth to moderate overtly political discussions. Assume best intent and be excellent to each other. Not regarding using or support for Lemmy Not ad nauseam inducing: please make sure it is a question that would be new to most members [An actual topic of discussion]