
[BOR]
0: Safe
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[EOR]
[BOC]
This is the fundamental problem for the alliance of six.  If you split the vote, someone has to be the target of split.  Unless everything goes perfectly, that someone (or maybe even someone else who is paranoid) will be aware of it, and work to swing things back in their favor.

The longer this cycle goes, the more likely it is that Mike can avoid playing the idol, since the alliance is going to spend their effort going after each other.  That's the beauty of him flashing his idol - they already have a starting point for the meltdown (Dan getting votes) and three days to do the melting.
[EOC]

0: Safe