The best way to come first is to go last.
The
best
way
to
come
first
is
to
go
last
.
An analysis of almost 50 years of competitions--including Eurovision Song Contests and world skating championships--has found that contestants are more likely to win if they are among the last to appear before the judges.
An
analysis
of
almost
50
years
of
competitions
--
including
Eurovision
Song
Contests
and
world
skating
championships
--
has
found
that
contestants
are
more
likely
to
win
if
they
are
among
the
last
to
appear
before
the
judges
.
The study by an American university appears to provide scientific proof that the best man, or woman, does not always win.
The
study
by
an
American
university
appears
to
provide
scientific
proof
that
the
best
man
,
or
woman
,
does
not
always
win
.
It found that, on average, the last competitor to appear in the Eurovision Song Contest was more than twice as likely to win as the one who went on first.
It
found
that
,
on
average
,
the
last
competitor
to
appear
in
the
Eurovision
Song
Contest
was
more
than
twice
as
likely
to
win
as
the
one
who
went
on
first
.
The first rounds of figure-skating championships, for which the running order is selected at random, showed more dramatic results.
The
first
rounds
of
figure-skating
championships
,
for
which
the
running
order
is
selected
at
random
,
showed
more
dramatic
results
.
The final skater had a 14 percent chance of victory, making him or her more than four times as likely to win as the first skater.
The
final
skater
had
a
14
percent
chance
of
victory
,
making
him
or
her
more
than
four
times
as
likely
to
win
as
the
first
skater
.
The study showed a gradual worsening of chances for competitors who appeared earlier in the running order.
The
study
showed
a
gradual
worsening
of
chances
for
competitors
who
appeared
earlier
in
the
running
order
.
A contestant who appears first in a contest is two percent less likely to win than one who appears second.
A
contestant
who
appears
first
in
a
contest
is
two
percent
less
likely
to
win
than
one
who
appears
second
.
A contestant who appears second is two percent less likely to win than one who appears third, and so on.
A
contestant
who
appears
second
is
two
percent
less
likely
to
win
than
one
who
appears
third
,
and
so
on
.
The findings are published in the March issue of Acta Psychologica, a scientific journal.
The
findings
are
published
in
the
March
issue
of
Acta
Psychologica
,
a
scientific
journal
.
Robert Hardman, a senior lecturer in psychology at London Metropolitan University who specializes in the science of decision-making, said that the results were interesting.
Robert
Hardman
,
a
senior
lecturer
in
psychology
at
London
Metropolitan
University
who
specializes
in
the
science
of
decision-making
,
said
that
the
results
were
interesting
.
He suggested that the effect was caused by the limitations of the human memory.
He
suggested
that
the
effect
was
caused
by
the
limitations
of
the
human
memory
.
"When people make comparisons, they aren't really able to make a lot of fine-grade discrimination.
``
When
people
make
comparisons
,
they
are
n't
really
able
to
make
a
lot
of
fine-grade
discrimination
.
When contestants appear at the beginning of a contest, judges have little to compare them to and are perhaps wary of the scores they give," he said.
When
contestants
appear
at
the
beginning
of
a
contest
,
judges
have
little
to
compare
them
to
and
are
perhaps
wary
of
the
scores
they
give
,
''
he
said
.
"Later on, when judges are able to compare the contestants to those that have gone before, they might give more extreme marks because they feel more confident about their judgments."
``
Later
on
,
when
judges
are
able
to
compare
the
contestants
to
those
that
have
gone
before
,
they
might
give
more
extreme
marks
because
they
feel
more
confident
about
their
judgments
.
''
The best way to come first is to go last. An analysis of almost 50 years of competitions--including Eurovision Song Contests and world skating championships--has found that contestants are more likely to win if they are among the last to appear before the judges.  The study by an American university appears to provide scientific proof that the best man, or woman, does not always win.  It found that, on average, the last competitor to appear in the Eurovision Song Contest was more than twice as likely to win as the one who went on first.  The first rounds of figure-skating championships, for which the running order is selected at random, showed more dramatic results. The final skater had a 14 percent chance of victory, making him or her more than four times as likely to win as the first skater.  The study showed a gradual worsening of chances for competitors who appeared earlier in the running order. A contestant who appears first in a contest is two percent less likely to win than one who appears second. A contestant who appears second is two percent less likely to win than one who appears third, and so on.  The findings are published in the March issue of Acta Psychologica, a scientific journal.  Robert Hardman, a senior lecturer in psychology at London Metropolitan University who specializes in the science of decision-making, said that the results were interesting. He suggested that the effect was caused by the limitations of the human memory.  "When people make comparisons, they aren't really able to make a lot of fine-grade discrimination. When contestants appear at the beginning of a contest, judges have little to compare them to and are perhaps wary of the scores they give," he said.  "Later on, when judges are able to compare the contestants to those that have gone before, they might give more extreme marks because they feel more confident about their judgments."