CHARCOAL, FOOD, AND WATER PRODUCTION IN THE TROPICS: APPLYING NEXUS THINKING TO IMPROVE RESEARCH AND POLICY APPROACHES IN COMPLEX LANDSCAPES

EDITED BY : Tuyeni Heita Mwampamba, Adrian Ghilardi and Rob Bailis PUBLISHED IN : Frontiers in Environmental Science

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ISSN 1664-8714 ISBN 978-2-88963-247-3 DOI 10.3389/978-2-88963-247-3

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# CHARCOAL, FOOD, AND WATER PRODUCTION IN THE TROPICS: APPLYING NEXUS THINKING TO IMPROVE RESEARCH AND POLICY APPROACHES IN COMPLEX LANDSCAPES

#### Topic Editors:

Tuyeni Heita Mwampamba, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico Adrian Ghilardi, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico Rob Bailis, Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden

#### Editorial:

#### *Tuyeni H Mwampamba, Rob Bailis, Adrian Ghilardi*

Urbanization, food, and water consumption trends in many tropical countries show that demand for charcoal (as a source of cooking energy), meat, grain and water will rise to proportions that surpass the ability of existing ecosystems to supply these services simultaneously and at desired qualities. Consequently, drastic changes to policy and practice are needed to improve ecosystem potential and/or alter demand trends.

Traditional charcoal production in sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia and Latin America often competes or co-exists with livestock keeping and agriculture and has a tendency to occur in water-limited woodlands. The co-occurrence of charcoal and food production results in complex landscapes characterized by strong interactions between subsystems, managed by multiple sets of actors, with potentially competing objectives. These social-ecological systems provide goods and services that are essential to millions of people throughout the global south. Nevertheless, there have been very few detailed studies of such systems, particularly on the individual and combined effects of charcoal, crop, and livestock production on the hydrological system that maintains them and vice versa. As a result, these multi-use landscapes are typically managed by short-sighted, highly generalized, mono-sectorial policies that ignore important tradeoffs and undercapitalize on synergies. A system-level approach could provide important insights that improve and expand current understanding of this energy-food-water nexus.

Tackling urgent and complex problems composed of multiple and interrelated factors lies at the heart of nexus thinking - an approach that "examines the inter-relatedness and interdependencies of environmental resources and their transitions and fluxes across spatial scales and between compartments" (UNU-FLORES 2015) and relies on interdisciplinary research and multi-sector policy teams. It has attracted significant interest from international organizations, the private sector and governments as a way to develop integrated equitable solutions that involve inputs from multiple stakeholders. However, this approach is notably absent in the research arena.

Identifying appropriate interventions for achieving sustainable charcoal and food production and maintaining the underlying hydrological system on which they depend requires that the systems are considered simultaneously and that their biophysical, social, and political inter-relations are well understood. Taking charcoal as the nexus entry-point, this Research Topic aims to generate new understanding of charcoal production systems by incorporating agriculture and hydrology into the matrix. We were interested in empirical articles, reviews, meta-analytical articles and perspective papers that address at least two of the three nexus components and which offer provocative and insightful perspectives into the nexus as a whole.

We hope that this Research Topic will 1) facilitate identification of research gaps, policy opportunities and priorities for the nexus, 2) kick-start the development of a community of researchers and practitioners working on the nexus, and 3) permit the development of a research agenda that explores the nexus globally across multiple study sites.

Citation: Mwampamba, T. H., Ghilardi, A., Bailis, R., eds. (2020). Charcoal, Food, and Water Production in the Tropics: Applying Nexus Thinking to Improve Research and Policy Approaches in Complex Landscapes. Lausanne: Frontiers Media SA. doi: 10.3389/978-2-88963-247-3

# Table of Contents

Nike Doggart and Charles Meshack

*30 Conceptual Analysis: The Charcoal-Agriculture Nexus to Understand the Socio-Ecological Contexts Underlying Varied Sustainability Outcomes in African Landscapes*

Miyuki Iiyama, Henry Neufeldt, Mary Njenga, Abayneh Derero, Geoffrey M. Ndegwa, Athanase Mukuralinda, Philip Dobie, Ramni Jamnadass and Jeremias Mowo

*44 Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics*

M. J. Santos, Stefan C. Dekker, Vassilis Daioglou, Maarten C. Braakhekke and Detlef P. van Vuuren

*56 Integrating Food-Water-Energy Research Through a Socio-Ecosystem Approach*

Manuel Maass

*64 Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Charcoal Production in Complex Social-Ecological Systems*

Rafael González-López and Mario Giampietro

Ricardo Martins

*107 Incorporating Ecohydrological Processes Into an Analysis of Charcoal-Livestock Production Systems in the Tropics: An Alternative Interpretation of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus* Tuyeni H. Mwampamba, N. Loes M. B. van Schaik and

Luis A. Castillo Hernandez

# Co-exploring the Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Facilitating Dialogue through Participatory Scenario Building

Oliver W. Johnson1 \* and Louise Karlberg2

*1 Stockholm Environment Institute, Nairobi, Kenya, 2 Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden*

The "water-energy-food nexus" has become an increasingly popular way to frame the challenges associated with reconciling human development objectives with responsible management of natural resources and ecosystems. Yet the nexus is complex, requiring effective engagement between expert and Non-expert stakeholders in order to understand biophysical inter-linkages between resources and resource flows and social interactions between different actors in the socio-ecological system and landscape. This can be a substantial challenge due to varying levels of knowledge and understanding amongst actors with divergent, and often entrenched, interests. This paper presents insights on how participatory scenario-building processes can create space for dialogue amongst stakeholders with differing knowledge, experience, priorities, and political perspectives. Drawing on completed and on-going research applying a "nexus toolkit" in Ethiopia and Rwanda respectively, we contribute to a generalized conceptual framework for addressing, communicating, and assessing the water-energy-food nexus, with a particular focus on how to utilize the nexus concept in practice. This framework has significant potential to help better understand interactions at landscape level, for example, between charcoal production, food production, and environmental systems. We find that participatory scenario-building processes that facilitate engagement beyond technical aspects to include social, economic and political concerns provide a valuable space for discussing and negotiating development pathways that are sustainable both biophysically and socio-economically. In addition, the involvement of stakeholders throughout the project process greatly enhances the quality and legitimacy of results. Furthermore, we suggest that by building capacity amongst stakeholders to maintain a quantitative "nexus toolkit," it has a better chance of informing decision-making and for supporting the development of more technically refined analyses of alternative decisions and management strategies.

Keywords: water-energy-food nexus, scenario planning, stakeholder dialogue, co-exploration, Ethiopia, Rwanda

# INTRODUCTION

In recent years, the "water-energy-food security nexus" has become an increasingly popular way to frame the challenges associated with reconciling human development objectives with responsible management of natural resources and ecosystems (Bazilian et al., 2011; Hoff, 2011; Howells et al., 2013). The value of the "nexus" concept lies is its ability to clarify inter-linkages and

#### Edited by:

*Tuyeni Heita Mwampamba, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico*

#### Reviewed by:

*Indira Devi Puthussery, Kerala Agricultural University, India Joseph Sang, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Kenya*

> \*Correspondence: *Oliver W. Johnson*

<EMAIL_ADDRESS>
#### Specialty section:

*This article was submitted to Agroecology and Land Use Systems, a section of the journal Frontiers in Environmental Science*

> Received: *24 December 2016* Accepted: *05 May 2017* Published: *24 May 2017*

#### Citation:

*Johnson OW and Karlberg L (2017) Co-exploring the Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Facilitating Dialogue through Participatory Scenario Building. Front. Environ. Sci. 5:24. doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2017.00024*

**5**

competition for resources between different sectors of the economy and highlight the implications on development of (un)coordinated decision-making and management in these sectors. Therefore, a nexus approach is useful when there is a need to plan and govern interdependent resource-related matters, for instance, when different sectors depend on the same resources or the direct inputs from each other. In low-income countries, this pertains to hydropower generation, irrigation, fodder production, manure management, and the charcoal sector. In the latter case, a nexus analysis is of specific relevance given the complex interactions between the charcoal sector and deforestation, ecosystems, energy use, and income generation (see Chidumayo and Gumbo, 2013; Mwampamba et al., 2013; Zulu and Richardson, 2013).

The intrinsic complexity of the "nexus," particular in relation to the charcoal sector, underlines the need for effective engagement between expert and non-expert stakeholders in order to understand biophysical inter-linkages between resources and resource flows and social interactions between different actors in the socio-ecological system and landscape. Stakeholder engagement is also essential for building dialog and negotiating solutions around how to better coordinate decision-making and management across sectors for the purpose of sustainable and equitable development. However, achieving effective engagement between expert and non-expert stakeholders can be a substantial challenge due to varying levels of knowledge and understanding amongst actors with divergent and often entrenched, interests, and power to influence decision-making.

This paper presents insights on how participatory scenario-building processes can create space for dialog amongst stakeholders with differing knowledge, experience, priorities, power, and political perspectives. In doing so, we contribute to a generalized conceptual framework for addressing, communicating, and assessing the water-energy-food nexus, with a particular focus on how to utilize the nexus concept in practice to better understand challenges faced in the charcoal sector. To illustrate insights on how participatory scenario-building processes can help to illuminate particular nexus contexts in reality and create space for dialog on solutions to more integrated development pathways, we draw on completed and on-going action research projects in Ethiopia and Rwanda respectively. In these projects, we utilized a quantitative "nexus" toolkit, based upon the dynamic linking of a water and biomass modeling software tool—Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP)—with an energy and climate modeling software tool—Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP).

#### THE FOOD-ENERGY-WATER NEXUS CHALLENGE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Many countries across Sub-Saharan Africa are witnessing rapid growth and development, largely driven by the processes of energy transition and agricultural transformation (Africa Progress Panel, 2015; AfDB, 2016). Sustainable energy transitions involve moving away from traditional biomass use to more modern energy services, ensuring universal access to reliable electricity supply, all whilst meeting climate change mitigation goals. Options may include modern bioenergy and hydropower, both of which require access to water and land resources. Meanwhile, agricultural transformation typically refers to improved productivity through intensification and commercialization, as well as integration into world markets. Such transformation is likely to require significantly higher energy and water inputs to improve productivity. At the same time, withdrawal of water upstream for irrigation purposes may reduce the water available for hydropower generation and ecosystems. A changing climate places further emphasis on the need to effectively manage water resources to adapt to and minimize the impacts of more frequent droughts. These changes, in addition to population increases and shifting patterns of consumption, lead to greater demand for natural resources and ecosystem services (Hallding et al., 2012; Jäger and Patel, 2012; Bierbaum et al., 2014). These pressures are exacerbated by the impacts of climate change, potentially leading to degradation of resources and leaving many millions of people food, energy, and water insecure (Matthew et al., 2010; Lee et al., 2012).

The future of charcoal production, trade and use is closely connected to processes of energy transition and agricultural transformation. Increased use of charcoal in urban centers in sub-Saharan Africa complicates attempts to facilitate an energy transition to cleaner low-carbon energy services: over 80% of urban households in the region rely on charcoal as their main source of cooking, and demand is set to increase as population grows and urbanization continues (Zulu and Richardson, 2013). At the same time, the clearing of forest to make way for agricultural land often provides opportunities for charcoal production using cleared forest resources (Mwampamba et al., 2013). The environmental and ecosystem impacts of charcoal production—whether from forest resources cleared for agricultural production or otherwise—can be severe (Chidumayo and Gumbo, 2013).

Within Sub-Saharan Africa, Ethiopia, and Rwanda stand out as two countries with ambitious development plans based around transforming agriculture and energy transition. Although, vastly different in terms of geographical size and population, both countries show similarities in their GDP per capita, percentage of the population employed in agriculture and energy access rates (see **Figure 1**).

Ethiopia has ambitions to become a middle-income country by 2025. A variety of targets have been set to help it reach this goal, including a number related to the agriculture and energy sectors. In 2010, the Government of Ethiopia established the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) followed by the Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy in 2012 (Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, 2010; Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2012). Both policy documents describe a pathway toward developing and modernizing the national economy in a sustainable, climate-compatible manner.

Ethiopia's GTP and GTP II targets build on long-standing agriculture growth and set targets associated with agricultural inputs (such as improved seeds, fertilizer, mechanization, land), energy generation (hydropower), irrigation, conservation, and land use. For example, by converting grazing and/or forest

land into cropland, the government aims to achieve a 13 per cent increase in cultivatable land. Meanwhile, irrigated land is expected to increase by more than 400 per cent during the same time period. Lastly, fertilizer use is projected to increase by roughly 100 per cent, leading to dramatic increases in productivity and agricultural output: e.g., increasing crop productivity by 30 per cent, power generation by 300 per cent, and sugar production by 600 per cent (Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, 2010).

As well as these conventional economic growth objectives, GTP also sets out a National Resource Conservation Plan that aims to rehabilitate land and increase forest cover. The CRGE strategy—which aims to ensure ambitious national development plans are not adversely affected by climate change further describes these conservation targets (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2012). While the targets set out in the CRGE strategy—shown in **Table 1**—are admirable, it is unclear whether all direct impacts or potential conflicts between targets have been adequately explored. For example, there is little to suggest that conflict between water use for irrigation and hydropower development has been studied. Similarly, continued and increasing exploitation of forest resources for charcoal production and construction purposes may make it increasingly difficult to meet forest cover targets. By 2014, over three million tonnes of charcoal were being consumed each year in Ethiopia's urban centers; as in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, attempts to regulate charcoal production and trade to make it more sustainable have been ineffective (Bekele and Girmay, 2014). Considering and pre-empting such conflicts is particularly important when analyzing potential welfare impacts, preparing coping mechanisms, and managing environmental feedback effects at the local level.

Furthermore, the rapid expansion of hydropower and irrigation infrastructure has heightened tensions with neighboring countries that depend extensively on water resources originating from the Ethiopian highlands for household, agricultural, and industrial consumption. Yet it also signals a changing geopolitical climate in which Ethiopia is becoming an important force in the Horn of Africa region (Rahmato, 2011; Verhoeven, 2011). Given these related concerns, it is unlikely that all the goals of the GTP and the CRGE can be met simultaneously, particularly when following a conventional sectoral approach (Karlberg et al., 2015a).

Meanwhile, Rwanda has committed itself to becoming a middle-income country by 2020. The countries Vision 2020 and Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategies

*Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (2012); Republic of Rwanda (2011).*

(EDPRS I and II) both set out clear intentions to intensify agriculture and increase national energy output (Republic of Rwanda, 2013, 2007). For example, agriculture is expected to grow by 8.5% annually and energy generation is expected to grow from 45 MW in 2006 to 563 MW in 2018, mainly through development of hydropower. These ambitions are also present at a sub-national level, with District Development Plans including provisions to modernize agriculture, invest in energy production and expand many water-intensive activities, such as mining, industrial development, and ecotourism.

These development goals place increasing pressure on limited water and biomass resources. Competition over water resources demanded by hydropower, irrigation, and water supply to major towns and various industries has the potential to create serious conflict. Meanwhile, biomass scarcity causes the country to import biomass from neighboring countries as well as having to allocate croplands to wood plantations, such as eucalyptus; in 2009, 21% of the biomass consumption was ascribed to unsustainable use of biomass and "the constant flow of charcoal into Kigali, exerts a considerable pressure on the wood resources of the country" (Drigo et al., 2013, p. vii). In addition, an intensified agricultural sector will demand more energy and water per hectare, although a modernized energy sector less dependent on traditional biomass is likely to be less landintensive.

In order to better understand the linkages between different sectors in future scenarios, Rwanda developed its Green Growth and Climate Resilience Strategy (GGCRS) in 2011 (Republic of Rwanda, 2011). The GGCRS was developed to guide decisions around natural resource management, investments and policy as well establish demonstration initiatives to support climate resilience activities and community livelihoods. The GGCRS centers around three cornerstones, shown in **Table 1**.

Whilst green growth and development plans in Ethiopia and Rwanda appear impressive—and have garnered significant support from international development partners (The Economist, 2010)—these ambitious national plans raise a number of concerns. In both countries, the political reality is complex. Despite exhibiting the formal institutions of democracy, civil society remains "stunted" (Matfess, 2015). Political opposition in Ethiopia is weak (Kefale, 2011) and the failure to meaningfully engage stakeholders at all levels of society, particularly at the local level, raises key issues of equity, representation, and recognition. This is likely to further exclude those who are already politically and socially marginalized (Jones and Carabine, 2013). There have been impressive efforts in Rwanda to reconstruct and modernize the country after genocide (Uvin, 2001; Ansoms, 2008), including huge steps to achieve better gender equality in political representation, with women taking 64 per cent of parliamentary seats in 2013 (United Nations, 2013). However, citizen participation is low in areas such as policy making, formulation of laws, decision-making and development, and evaluation of local government programmes (Interayamahanga, 2011). Decentralization has not increased the voice of local people, but has merely allowed the central level to extend its influence to the local level (Ansoms, 2008). This "developmental authoritarianism" (Matfess, 2015) reduces the prospects for democratic deliberation over green growth strategies and plans and the potential for developing alternative pathways and understandings of "sustainability."

Taken together, these issues point to the need for approaches that can "open up" space for dialog in order to deal with complex nexus issues. Such approaches need to be based on quantitative assessments of resources availabilities, as well as qualitative analysis of the impacts on whole socio-economic systems. Our goal is to develop, test and apply such an approach through a process of collaborative stakeholder dialog.

#### PARTICIPATORY SCENARIO BUILDING APPROACH FOR CO-EXPLORING THE NEXUS

The inherent complexity of the water-energy-food nexus approach makes stakeholder participation essential, particularly if space is to be opened up for actors with different perceptions to be heard, particularly those who are often marginalized. One way to open up space for co-exploration and dialog around nexus issues is through a participatory scenario-building approach, combining qualitative, and quantitative methods.

# Scenario Building for the Water-Energy-Food Nexus

Scenario building is becoming widely appreciated as an effective way in which to explore interactions between complex social and environment systems over the medium-to-long term (Swart et al., 2004; Kok et al., 2007; Volkery et al., 2008). Essentially, scenario building is a way to posit ideas about the future, with scenarios describing how the future may develop based on a certain set of assumptions about potential drivers of change and uncertainties (Bradfield et al., 2005; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). Exploratory scenarios are particularly relevant for investigating the water-energy-food nexus, as it allows us to explore development pathways arising from the interactions between different sectoral strategies.

Exploratory scenarios can be qualitative, quantitative or more often than not—a mix of the two. Often a "story and simulation approach" (Alcamo, 2008) is pursued whereby qualitative scenarios—storylines or narratives—describing the broader picture of future development are quantified for use in computer-based modeling tools. Typically, each scenario represents a possible future state of the social and environmental system under consideration (Spielmann et al., 2005).

Exploratory scenarios can also be used at different levels. For example, at the global level, scenarios were used in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES; Nakicenovic et al., 2000) and in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; O'Neill et al., 2015), the new scenario process replacing the SRES scenarios. On the local level there are numerous studies employing scenario planning, e.g., climate adaptation planning (Baard et al., 2011; Carlsen et al., 2013), integrated water resource management (Voinov and Gaddis, 2008) and governance of sustainable development (Bohunovsky et al., 2011).

# Participation and Engagement

Building scenarios can be done in many ways. Typically scenarios are constructed by developing a storyline or narrative (as in the story and simulation approach), based around first prioritizing the most uncertain and most important driving forces. These driving forces might encompass trends associated with population growth, economic growth and urbanization, potential changes in climate and planned policies, and interventions. Given the unlimited range of scenarios that can be developed, it often makes sense to narrow down to a small number of particularly relevant scenarios based upon broad plausible storylines/narratives. A typical starting narrative is the "business-as-usual" scenario, whereby the key drivers affecting future development are on-going demographic trends, such as population growth, economic growth, and increasing urbanization. Other scenarios may be based upon the implementation of planned national polices and interventions, or on certain climate change projections.

This leads to key questions around who defines the storyline, and whose voice is represented in this version of the future? Who decides which driving forces are most important? The water-energy-food nexus presents a particular challenge given the complex inter-linkages between sectors and the different future pathways identified with by actors in different sectors. Furthermore, quantifying a given future pathway for use in an analytical scenario building may place a bias on the views of technical experts over those of non-experts (e.g., practitioners, policy makers, and the public).

How might participation improve planning and decisionmaking processes? Fiorino (1990) identifies three main rationales for increasing participation. The first is substantive: the public's judgments about risk are equally sound, and sometimes better, than those of experts; hence, increasing participation can improve the outcomes of planning. From this perspective, participatory nexus scenario planning can help to increase knowledge and understanding of the water-energy-food security nexus in a particular context, particularly nuanced framing with multiple perspectives. Combining factual information and analytical techniques with "local knowledge and subjective perceptions" (Pahl-Wostl, 2002) "imagination and expertise" (Volkery et al., 2008) from different stakeholder groups can help to build consensus on the current conditions and key driving forces (Andersson et al., 2008) and lead to more accurate scenarios reflecting local realities (Patel et al., 2007; Reed et al., 2013).

The second rationale for participation is instrumental: decisions that involve citizens are seen as more legitimate; hence, increasing participation ensures better buy-in, which leads to better results. Increasing participation in nexus scenario building may help to ensure "that all stakeholder groups involved have a high degree of confidence" (Andersson et al., 2008). It is vital to ensure future scenario storylines are credible, legitimate and salient, particularly "with respect to personal beliefs, the equifinality of alternative development pathways, the validation and uncertainty of assumptions, stakeholder engagement in visions development, and participatory methods" (Rounsevell and Metzger, 2010). Making sure scenarios are relevant to stakeholder needs and priorities (Reed et al., 2013) may significantly increase the chances of buy-in to subsequent policy proposals based upon the nexus analysis (Robinson et al., 2011).

The third rationale is normative: the best judge of citizens' interests are citizens themselves, hence, increasing participation is the right thing to do. This normative drive for participation is derived from the need for dialog to clarify problems, identify unavoidable trade-offs and negotiate viable solutions to complex and uncertain environmental and societal problems (Patel et al., 2007; Voinov and Bousquet, 2010; Ravera et al., 2011). Participatory processes can help trigger conversations on future developments between stakeholders who might never typically engage with each other (Volkery et al., 2008). If managed effectively, such engagement can "increase the level of understanding between the various groups and therefore ameliorates the potential for future conflicts" (Andersson et al., 2008).

#### Challenges to Effective Participation

Despite the allure of participatory scenario building approaches to co-explore and address water-energy-food nexus issues, there are significant challenges to ensuring participation is effective. There are many rungs on the ladder of participation; from token participation (consultation and informing) to full citizen power (partnership and control; Arnstein, 1969). Not all mechanisms that are considered "participatory" actually provide opportunities for full engagement. In some cases, stakeholder engagement is merely symbolic (Voinov and Bousquet, 2010).

Participation in nexus scenario building is made difficult by the complex issues involved, typically crossing multiple sectors beyond the knowledge of any one person. This difficulty may be amplified if the quantitative technical models used to build scenarios are inaccessible. Indeed, there is often a risk of overwhelming stakeholders (Robinson et al., 2011). Avoiding this risk requires considerable investment in time and resources to ensure that complex information and decisions are presented to non-technical stakeholders in an accessible way (Kok et al., 2007; van Vliet et al., 2010; Robinson et al., 2011).

Despite best efforts, there remains the risk of participatory processes being framed such that the range of options considered reflects the preferences of incumbent interests. In this sense, participation is used as a "technology of legitimation" (Harrison and Mort, 1998 in Stirling, 2007, p. 264). As Stirling (2007) argues, participatory processes do not inherently solve the problem associated with expert-led planning: the sensitivity to framing by powerful interests. In order to make a difference, participatory processes need to open up the decision space beyond the options preferred by those with the most power and influence. They need to better inform and determine the technical analyses, and uncover alternatives that might not otherwise be considered.

# Participatory Nexus Scenario Building in Ethiopia and Rwanda

Given the potential benefits and pitfalls of participatory processes to understand and seek solutions to the water-energy-food nexus, it is important to design a structured—but flexible—process or method to effectively and sincerely engage with stakeholders as one moves between "story" and "simulation." In our research in Ethiopia and Rwanda, we sought to co-produce different plausible development scenarios with stakeholders. In Ethiopia, the geographical scope of our study was the Lake Tana subbasin1 , while the Akagera river basin formed the geographical scope of our study in Rwanda2 . The scenario co-production process in each case study was used to create space for dialog amongst stakeholders with differing knowledge, experience, priorities and political perspectives on how to address challenges and opportunities pertaining to the nexus.

2https://www.sei-international.org/mediamanager/documents/Projects/ FONERWA\_Project\_Flyer[2].pdf.

The process, shown in **Figure 2**, was based on a set of iterative steps consisting of engagement with technical and nontechnical stakeholders to identify the current state of affairs and posit scenarios about how the future might unfold, followed by quantitative modeling of these scenarios. In a workshop setting, stakeholders and the project team jointly developed the assumptions, populated the model with their own data and critiqued the results of the tool in an iterative approach until the model is deemed credible. Moreover, stakeholders analyzed the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of the results and compare them with the goals in national strategies and policies. Lastly, stakeholders participated in the formulation of new policies and technical innovations to be tested in the toolkit, thereby supporting the development of new interventions. Application of the "nexus tool-kit" in Ethiopia, including quantitative scenario modeling results on the waterenergy-food nexus in the Lake Tana region, are available (see Karlberg et al., 2015a). Scenario modeling in Rwanda is still on-going and thus results are not yet published.

## Initial Stakeholder Engagement and Model Development

The first step of the process consisted of initial engagement with stakeholders to understand the current context and setting, and discuss initial narratives or storylines about the future. In both case studies, local project partner(s) invited stakeholders for broader stakeholder engagement, as well as to be part of a smaller technical team who were part of developing the quantitative tools. In Ethiopia, the local project partner was the Bahir Dar University, a prominent university in the case study region. In Rwanda, and our local partner was the Albertine Rift Conservation Society (ARCOS), a conservation NGO headquartered in Kigali.

A first workshop was held with the broader stakeholder group to introduce the water-energy-food nexus concept, map out actors and institutions, define current issues pertaining to the nexus, and finally to create initial scenario narratives. In Ethiopia, 40 stakeholders attended the this first workshop, with participation from, for instance, the Bureau of Water Resource Development, the Bureau of Agriculture, the Bureau of Energy and Mines, the Fisheries Association, Environment Protection, Land Administration and Use Bureau, the Abbay Basin Authority, and Bahir Dar University. In Rwanda, around 25 stakeholders attended, representing the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Rwanda Natural Resources Authority, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Local Government and the three districts specifically targeted in the study. In both countries, it proved challenging to attract stakeholders from the government authorities and state-owned utilities in the energy sector.

In the first workshop in both Ethiopia and Rwanda, stakeholders were initially asked to describe the current situation in terms of water and land-use for energy and food production and related socio-ecological impacts. This information was used to develop the initial reference scenario, also called "business-asusual" (BAU). In this scenario for both cases, all existing resource

1https://www.sei-international.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-DB-2013-Nexus-Blue-Nile-Ethiopia.pdf.

management practices were assumed to remain the same, or change according to historical trends, but distributed amongst a growing population as per expected growth patterns. In order to compare this BAU development pathway, the stakeholders were then asked to generate a second scenario based on the national policy framework. For example, population growth in Ethiopia and Rwanda were expected to continue at 3.1 and 2.5 per cent per year (the figure for Ethiopia is adopted in the specific case study area). Meanwhile, agricultural transformation in both countries would continue to unfold slowly and energy transition would remain hampered by continued dependence on traditional or marginally more efficient biomass energy.

Back-to-back with the first workshop, an initial training on the quantitative tools used in the projects (the "nexus tool-kit") was provided to the local technical team in each country. The intention was to engage experts early on to acquire knowledge on the tool-kit so that they could co-develop the application and be proficient users at the termination of the projects. Typically participants in this team were technically proficient junior/mid-level employees from stakeholder organizations, who may or may not already have prior knowledge of the modeling tools. In Ethiopia, the technical team for LEAP consisted of representatives of the Ethiopian Electric Power Company (EEPCo), the Environmental Protection, Land Administration and Use Bureau and the Mines and Energy Resources Development and Promotion Agency and Bahir Dar University. The technical team for WEAP included representatives from for instance the Bureau of Water Resource Development, the Bureau of Agriculture, the Abbay Basin Authority, the Amhara Regional Agricultural Research Institute (ARARI), and Bahir Dar University. In Rwanda, the technical team members came from for instance the Energy Utility Corporation, the Ministry of Infrastructure, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Rwanda Natural Resources Authority, the Water and Sanitation Corporation, and a number of representatives from three districts specifically targeted in the study. In Ethiopia, it was particularly challenging to find energy experts. In Rwanda, energy experts were easier to access, but agricultural experts were difficult to access.

Based on the information gathered during the workshop, semi-structured interviews, local data-repositories made available by the stakeholders, and information found in the literature, a first model application was built using quantitative tools ("nexus tool-kit"). In our particular "nexus toolkit," we used the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool3 and LEAP4 . These software tools are two of the most common water and energy planning tools used globally today, particularly in data scarce environments. In dialog with stakeholders, the tool can be applied to test classical "what if " questions (e.g., what if we increase the energy tariff, subsidize fertilizer, build more irrigation dams etc.). SEI's WEAP and LEAP "nexus toolkit" are

3http://sei-us.org/software/weap.

4http://sei-us.org/software/leap.

modeling tools that use a broad set of data collected in the field and from other sources. The toolkit can then analyse several development pathways, conduct stakeholder analysis of outputs and finally evaluate different development pathways.

### Refining Scenario Story and Simulation

After the initial model application was completed by the modeling experts, a full-week training with the technical team was held in Ethiopia and Rwanda. During this week, the local application of the model was used as the training material. For instance, in Ethiopia the WEAP and LEAP model for the Lake Tana region was used. In Rwanda, a national level LEAP model was used and a WEAP model covering the Akagera basin was used. In this way, the technical team were given the opportunity to critique and refine the model assumptions and results—given their local knowledge—and were able to direct the modeling team to better or more appropriate data as necessary. In both cases, the technical training led to the emergence of invaluable and previously inaccessible reports and associated data on energy, water, and agriculture in the respective countries.

After a period of time, during which the model continued to be refined, a second workshop with the broader stakeholder group was then conducted (yet to be done in Rwanda). In Ethiopia, this workshop employed the use of the SWOT analysis approach (Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats). The SWOT analyses were complemented with questions about potential winners and losers under each scenario. The insights generated by these exercises thus highlighted the implications of each development trajectory for a variety of different stakeholder groups. Based on these implications, a set of unresolved dilemmas, also under the national framework scenario, were identified. As a response to this, the stakeholders defined a third scenario, hereafter called the "Nexus" scenario. As a result, the interaction between stakeholders and scientists in Ethiopia generated a revised set of narratives as well as a clearer understanding among the scientists on which data to include in the LEAP and WEAP models for the Lake Tana region.

### Co-exploring Scenario Impacts

In consecutive workshops in Ethiopia, modeling work was analyzed and critiqued by the technical team, which led to a refinement of data and assumptions in an iterative process, until the results were deemed credible. In Rwanda, these workshops will take place in 2017 and 2018. The broader stakeholder group in the Lake Tana region participated in refining the scenarios and assessing impacts, again using SWOT analysis. The outcome of participatory scenario modeling work in Ethiopia was identification of clear, yet unresolved, conflicts and tradeoffs over national plans for water resource use in agriculture and energy and over current patterns of biomass resource use, as well as development of a "nexus" scenario that sought to address these conflicts and trade-offs (Karlberg et al., 2015a).

Overall, each step in the process can be iterated as necessary to further refine the models/scenarios, build competence within the technical team and increase dialog between stakeholders. When discussions move toward seeking solutions that address trade-offs, etc., then the process can be viewed as coming to a close. For instance, the dialog might lead to plans for several promising technical innovations that may have positive impacts for both transforming the agricultural and the energy sectors, such as micro-hydro schemes, bio-digesters, improved cookstoves, water harvesting dams, conservation agriculture, etc. If the both the direct and indirect impacts of upscaling these technologies are unclear, the "nexus tool-kit" can in these cases help to quantify the resources allocations to different sectors and potential environmental impacts, as well as the production of both food and energy for different development trajectories.

# DISCUSSION AND LESSONS LEARNED

In order to further explore the conceptual approach demonstrated in this paper, we relate the process and methodology applied in the two case-studies in Ethiopia and Rwanda respectively with the rationales for participation (substantive, instrumental, and normative; Fiorino, 1990), and are thus able to confirm the relevance of all three in our proposed approach to scenario building in nexus studies. Furthermore, we provide a few concrete examples from each case-study as a way to illustrate how the water-energy-food nexus may play out in resources constrained, low-income countries in the tropics, with specific focus on charcoal.

#### Local Knowledge

The substantive argument for participatory nexus scenario planning emphasizes the importance of local knowledge and perceptions in fully understanding the water-energy-food security nexus in a particular context. During the initial interactions with the stakeholders a number of nexus issues that were of importance in the specific local setting were identified. In Ethiopia, our initial discussion revolved around water use for irrigation, hydropower generation, and maintaining environmental flow requirements in rivers and lakes. However, in subsequent workshops it became increasingly clear that biomass use for food, fodder, and fuel was just as important. Moreover, the use of water and biomass for energy and food production were strongly linked; current over-use of biomass for fodder and fuel was causing severe land-degradation and could only be partially offset by higher reliance on alternative energy sources such as electricity (e.g., hydropower). The analysis showed that if the management of biomass was to continue unchanged, demand would exceed supply by a factor of three by 2030 (Karlberg et al., 2015b), which has potentially severe implications for all sectors depending on biomass use, such as the charcoal industry and livestock rearing. Specifically, the demand for fuelwood, partly consisting of demand for charcoal, is predicted to exceed supply of woody biomass by a factor of five by 2030, thus highlighting the urgent need to address the energy supply situation and specifically the cooking fuel component.

In Rwanda, the current overuse of biomass for charcoal production, and the governance implications thereof, was one of the entry points for discussion. Being severely constrained by productive land area, the country will need to make wellinformed decisions and come to agreement on how to best make use of this land and the associated biomass. As the charcoal sector currently employs a significant proportion of the population, such decisions need to be followed by a strategy for providing alternative sources of income for those that currently derive their livelihoods from this sector, should the decision be to reduce the dependence of charcoal in the energy sector in future. Such alternatives are currently being co-explored with the stakeholders and the research team in the on-going project in Rwanda.

As discussions developed, it became clear that the interactions between the processes of agricultural transformations and energy transitions was strong and complex and that there was a need for quantitative assessments to provide illustrations of different plausible development trajectories to support the planning of natural resources management which hitherto had been based on educated guesses on the developments of the other sectors, at best. Participatory scenario building can significantly contribute to a critical review of data on issues pertaining to the waterenergy-food nexus.

#### Legitimacy

The instrumental rationale for participatory scenario building revolves around the notion that decisions involving citizens are likely to be more legitimate. We found that the iterative process of model development and scenario refinement in Ethiopia and Rwanda helped to make the narratives significantly more relevant and appropriate from the perspective of the stakeholder groups. Moreover, by co-developing the local model application with a team of technical experts scrutinizing and contributing to data, assumptions and results, improved the quality of the application.

Also, past project experience shows that if local stakeholders can maintain a quantitative model, it has a better chance of informing decision-making. In this context a note of caution is warranted. Nexus analysis quickly becomes complex and is therefore resource consuming. Thus, before embarking on a fullscale nexus analysis, it is critical to hold an initial workshop and perform some initial sector specific quantifications of resource demand and supply to reveal if any nexus issues actually exist. It is important to remember that not everything is a nexus issue, and some issues can be managed more easily within a specific sector.

#### Trade-Offs and Governance

The normative drive for participation highlights the importance of stakeholder dialogue to clarify problems, identify unavoidable trade-offs and negotiate viable solutions to complex and uncertain environmental and societal problems associated with the nexus. The process highlights constraining and reinforcing interlinkages between different sectors and thus stimulates vital discussion between stakeholder groups who may not have discussed their separate future pathways with each other before. The projects brought together stakeholders from the food, water, energy, and environment sectors to discuss the implications of different development trajectories and to jointly develop new strategies that would address outstanding dilemmas. To support this dialogue, the co-creation of the scenarios and the joint analysis of the impacts resulted in a better understanding of the dilemmas facing each sector and hence a more common ownership of the development of the region by all stakeholders. Moreover, since the analysis was based on the data and assumptions made by the local experts, and provided a quantitative illustration of different development trajectories, the focus on the discussions was on impacts and options for resolving dilemmas, rather than arguing and guessing over resources availabilities. Even though there was often disagreement amongst the stakeholders on what constituted more or less desirable uses of resources, there was a shared understanding of that whatever each sector does will impact on the others. As a consequence, in Ethiopia all stakeholders expressed a need for continued dialogue to ensure cross-sector coherence. The outcome therefore was the forming of a cross sector platform for dialogue, and an improved understanding of joint issues pertaining to resource scarcity (in this case specifically water and biomass) and the needs of other sectors. The project also revealed gaps in the current policy framework that would need to be addressed to ensure a desirable future for all.

During the workshops in both Ethiopia and Rwanda, a lot of time was spent discussing which actors and/or institutions that have the mandate to govern nexus issues. This experience was also shared in a nexus rapid appraisal conducted in Zambia (Zur Heide et al., 2015). It appears that water management agencies have a central role to play, since they commonly have a mandate to plan water resources allocation amongst several stakeholders. Yet, they lack the land-use aspects and can also be said to have vested interests. On the other hand, most stakeholders did not suggest a new institution to take on the role of overseeing nexus issues. In this context, the issue of level is also important, i.e., should the nexus be managed a local, national or regional levels. It appears that most actors are present at the national level which is also where policies are being developed, so the national level will be, if not possibly the only level for nexus governance, so at least a critical one. In summary, we note that the ownership of the process is a challenge which has to be addressed in each specific local context.

#### Challenges

A number of outstanding challenges were also identified in both projects. Firstly, we note that actors sit at different levels at different sectors. For instance, in Ethiopia we conducted social network analyses on the agriculture, energy, water, and environment sectors (Stein, 2013). It was found that whilst agriculture, water and environment consisted of large actor networks ranging from the local to the national level, the energy network was smaller and most actors were concentrated at the national level. As a consequence, it was sometimes difficult to get participation by energy actors in workshops held at the local level. Moreover, despite the energy sector in Rwanda and Ethiopia being more than 80% biomass based (World Bank, 2009) the energy sector actors were predominantly focused on electricity. Since biomass scarcity is a major challenge and impacts greatly on land management, the lack of focus on bioenergy becomes problematic from a nexus perspective.

On a related note, it became clear during the stakeholder workshops that different stakeholders had different abilities to impact the decision on the ultimate use of resources. In Ethiopia for instance, stakeholders expressed that hydropower generation, followed by irrigation, took priority over meeting environmental flow requirements. We therefore identified a challenge to manage different power relations amongst actors in a nexus context.

Lastly, we note that implementing a cross-sector process inevitably takes time. Changing policy and planning processes normally takes longer than the duration of a research project. On the other hand, the uptake of quantitative tools to support the planning and decision-making process is faster. Overall, we conclude that the impacts of a nexus project are most likely experienced beyond the closing of the project, and therefore a strong local partner with a clear mandate to continue to support the process is critical to achieve long-term impacts.

### CONCLUSIONS

The water-energy-food nexus concept takes an integrated approach to understanding ways in which human development can be pursued without adversely affecting natural resources and ecosystems. In this regard, the nexus approach has significant potential for exploring the barriers to and opportunities for sustainable production, trade and consumption of charcoal—an important and growing source of energy and income in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the complexities of the nexus require careful engagement with stakeholders to manage conflict and tensions around potential winners and losers of any future change or intervention.

In this conceptually-oriented paper, we proposed a participatory scenario-building process that facilitated engagement beyond technical aspects to include social, economic, and political concerns. Applying this participatory scenario-building process in empirical studies of the waterenergy-food nexus in Ethiopia and Rwanda, we found that such a process provides a valuable space for dialogues around development pathways that are sustainable both biophysically and socio-economically. Co-production and co-exploration of quantitative scenarios stimulates vital discussion between

#### REFERENCES

stakeholder groups who may not have discussed their separate future pathways with each other before, and contributes to a shared understanding of how the sectors depend on each other, and therefore illustrates the need for joint solutions to outstanding dilemmas. We found that even though there was often disagreement amongst the stakeholders on what constituted more or less desirable development outcomes, there was a shared understanding of the interlinkages between the sectors and how those could be addressed. Our proposed methodology to participatory scenario building addressing the water-energy-food nexus highlights the relevance of substantive, instrumental, and normative rationales for stakeholder involvement.

Furthermore, we found that equipped with technical expertise and knowledge of how their sector fits into the broader socio-ecological landscape and system, stakeholders may be able to achieve more sustainable and equitable options to address resources allocation in the water-energy-food nexus. An outstanding challenge relates to the ownership of the processes and water-energy-food nexus related issues, which needs to adapt to local institutional structures and existing platforms for collaboration. Managing different power relations amongst stakeholders in yet another challenges which special relevance to the nexus, since by definition this topic involves an array of various actors.

### AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS

Both authors co-wrote the paper; OJ led the organizing and writing and so was designated lead author.

#### FUNDING

The research in this paper is supported by the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) and Rwanda's Green Fund (FONERWA).

Decision-Makers. Working Paper No. 124. Stockholm: National Institute of Economic Research (NIER).

**Conflict of Interest Statement:** The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Copyright © 2017 Johnson and Karlberg. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

# The Marginalization of Sustainable Charcoal Production in the Policies of a Modernizing African Nation

Nike Doggart\* and Charles Meshack

Tanzania Forest Conservation Group, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Charcoal is the main cooking fuel for urban populations in many African countries. Urbanization and population growth are driving an increase in demand for charcoal, whilst deforestation reduces biomass stocks. Given increasing demand for charcoal, and decreasing availability of biomass, policies are urgently needed that ensure secure energy supplies for urban households and reduce deforestation. There is potential for charcoal to be produced sustainably in natural woodlands, but this requires supportive policies. Previous research has identified policy issues that have contributed to the charcoal sector remaining informal and environmentally destructive. In this paper, we describe how national policies in Tanzania on energy, forests, agriculture, land, and water, consider charcoal, and the degree to which they do, and do not, support sustainable charcoal production. The paper identifies policy gaps and a cross-sector tendency to marginalize natural forest management. By adopting a nexus approach, the paper highlights the inter-connections between sustainable charcoal production, ecosystem services, and trade-offs in the allocation of land, labor, and net primary production. In conclusion, sustainable charcoal production has been marginalized in multiple national policies. As a result, potential benefits of sustainable charcoal production are lost to multiple sectors.

Keywords: charcoal, sustainable forest management, policy analysis, nexus, Tanzania

# INTRODUCTION

Global wood charcoal production has trebled over the last 50 years from 17.3 million tons in 1964 to 53.1 million tons in 2014 (FAO, 2016). Sixty-one percent of current global production occurs in Africa (FAO, 2016), primarily to satisfy demand for cooking fuel from urban and peri-urban households (Mwampamba et al., 2013; d'Agostino et al., 2015). With Africa's population projected to double between 2015 and 2050 (UN, 2015), and with increased rural-urban migration in key producing countries, including Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Nigeria (FAO, 2016), demand for charcoal is projected to increase. Whilst demand for charcoal is projected to increase in Africa (IEA, 2014), the availability of woody biomass is declining due to widespread net deforestation (Hansen et al., 2013).

Charcoal can be produced without permanently deforesting or degrading a forested area, by protecting harvested areas from cultivation, intensive grazing, and fire, thus enabling natural regeneration. We use the term "to deforest," to mean the long-term or permanent removal of forest cover and conversion to a non-forested land use (Watson et al., 2000), whilst we follow the FAO (2003) definition that forest degradation means the long-term reduction of the overall potential supply of benefits from a forest, which includes carbon, wood, biodiversity, and other goods and

#### Edited by:

Tuyeni Heita Mwampamba, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico

#### Reviewed by:

Daniel Jones, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom Frank Kwaku Agyei, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Ghana

> \*Correspondence: Nike Doggart<EMAIL_ADDRESS>
#### Specialty section:

This article was submitted to Agroecology and Land Use Systems, a section of the journal Frontiers in Environmental Science

> Received: 22 January 2017 Accepted: 22 May 2017 Published: 08 June 2017

#### Citation:

Doggart N and Meshack C (2017) The Marginalization of Sustainable Charcoal Production in the Policies of a Modernizing African Nation. Front. Environ. Sci. 5:27. doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2017.00027 services. As Chidumayo and Gumbo (2013) have stated, woodlands in many tropical countries, including Tanzania, will regenerate within 8–30 years of trees being cut for charcoal. Similarly, Woollen et al. (2016) found that areas of Mopane woodland in Mozambique, under long term charcoal production, continued to provide most ecosystem services, so long as the woodland species continued to dominate the area.

Sustainable charcoal production requires owners of natural woodland to maintain forest cover over time, rather than converting it to other land uses, such as agriculture. In this paper, we assume that charcoal production is more likely to be sustainable if charcoal-dependent countries adopt, and implement, policies that explicitly support sustainable production and incentivize forest owners to maintain natural woodland for sustainable charcoal production. We assume that sustainable production is more likely to be achieved in woodlands with secure tenure, formalized management, and harvesting plans designed to maintain the broad ecosystem functions of the forest or woodland. This assumption is supported by evidence from Niger and Senegal, where the adoption of formalized, community-based woodfuel production has resulted in an increase in the forest stock (de Miranda et al., 2010). In contrast, in Tanzania and in many of the other top charcoal-producing countries in Africa, charcoal value chains are largely informal with production proceeding in the absence of sustainable harvesting plans (Sander et al., 2013; Schure et al., 2013). The informality of production, particularly the absence of formalized and sustainable harvesting, has contributed to widespread forest degradation and, to a lesser extent, deforestation, particularly in the vicinity of concentrated markets, such as large urban areas (Chidumayo and Gumbo, 2013). The role of national policy, in this context, is to document a nation's intention to manage natural forests for sustainable charcoal production, with lower level policy tools setting out the details of how the policy should be implemented. National policy therefore provides a foundation for the formalization of sustainable charcoal production, and for the allocation of forest lands for that purpose. If these assumptions are correct, then we can infer that embedding sustainable charcoal production in national policy will help to safeguard forests, and the ecosystem services that they provide. However, we also recognize that formalization does not guarantee sustainability (Schure et al., 2013), and that there are examples of government attempts to control supply which have, instead, disrupted supply (Ribot, 1999), and of informal production in which forest ecosystem services are sustained (Ribot, 1999; Woollen et al., 2016). We also recognize that there are currently few examples of formalized, sustainable charcoal production in practice (de Miranda et al., 2010; Zulu and Richardson, 2013). The relevance of including sustainable charcoal production in national policy and the risks of omitting it are explored throughout the paper. Despite the potential benefits of sustainable charcoal production, national policies in many African countries have not embraced the practice even in countries with development programmes, and research, promoting sustainable production [World Bank, 2009; Owen et al., 2013; Sander et al., 2013; CamCo Clean Energy (Tanzania) Limited, 2014].

There are various reasons why sustainable charcoal production has been marginalized in national policies. Mwampamba et al. (2013) identified five misconceptions about charcoal that are held by policy-makers and other stakeholders, despite evidence that runs counter to those perceptions. These include beliefs that: charcoal is an energy source primarily for the poor; that charcoal use for cooking will decrease automatically, as a country becomes more developed; that charcoal production causes deforestation; that the charcoal sector is economically irrelevant; and that improved charcoal cook stoves mitigate deforestation. The authors highlight that a paucity of data on the charcoal trade has confounded attempts to nurture a more nuanced understanding of the trade amongst some policy-makers, and that, as a result, these beliefs have resulted in mis-guided policies. The question of why policy-makers have marginalized sustainable charcoal production in national policy is also explored in this paper.

Various authors, including Mwampamba et al. (2013) and Sander et al. (2013), have highlighted policy-related barriers to improving the sustainability of charcoal production in Tanzania. In this study, we retain their focus on Tanzania whilst defining more precisely those policy-related barriers. We describe how charcoal is currently addressed in energy, forest, agriculture, water, and land policies in Tanzania. We also update previous analyses by bringing in the National Energy Policy, 2015 (URT, 2015b), and the draft National Forest Policy, 2014 (URT, 2014), and broadening the scope of the analysis also to consider the land, agriculture, and water policies. We assess the degree to which different sectoral policies consider sustainable management of natural woodlands for charcoal production. In addition to looking at policy content, we also look briefly at the broader policy cycle in order to identify other factors that have influenced the treatment of charcoal in national policy. By applying nexus thinking, we explore the inter-sectoral implications of current policies. We highlight the inter-connections between sustainable charcoal production, natural woodland management, ecosystem services, and the energy, forest, agriculture, water, and land sectors, particularly when viewed through the lens of climate change.

The paper is focused on policies in Tanzania, the fifth largest charcoal producer in Africa (FAO, 2016). Tanzania stands out in terms of the extent to which charcoal has contributed to deforestation in the country. For example, in a study of 17 countries with the highest deforestation rates globally, the average proportion of deforestation attributable to charcoal was 6.9 ± 2.3%, with the highest proportion occurring in Tanzania at 33.16% (Chidumayo and Gumbo, 2013). However, the assumptions underpinning this estimate are only weakly validated, in terms of the interplay between charcoal and crop production, particularly in areas where charcoal production occurs during a land use transition from forest to cropland. Bailis et al. (2015) estimated that woodfuel harvesting contributed no

**Abbreviations:** CBFM, Community Based Forest Management; MNRT, Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism; TFCG, Tanzania Forest Conservation Group; TFS, Tanzania Forest Services Agency; TZS, Tanzanian Shilling; VLFR, Village Land Forest Reserve.

more than 20% of non-renewable biomass harvested in Tanzania. In the paper, we unpick some of the policy-related drivers of deforestation and forest degradation. We also challenge policy makers, in countries such as Tanzania that are undergoing rapid economic and land use change, to re-evaluate the land use trade-offs that are being made between agriculture and natural forests, and to embrace policies that promote sustainable charcoal production and natural woodland management.

### Charcoal and the Energy Sector

The nexus between charcoal and the energy sector in many African countries, including Tanzania, centers on its predominance in the national energy supply. Woodfuels including charcoal and fuel wood provide 85–90% of Tanzania's energy supply (World Bank, 2009; URT, 2015b). In urban areas, 71% of households depend on charcoal, whilst fuelwood is predominantly used in rural areas [CamCo Clean Energy (Tanzania) Limited, 2014]. Tanzania's urban population has increased from <1 to 12 million over the last 50 years (FAO, 2016). This growth trend is projected to continue, with a concomitant increase in the proportion of the population using charcoal (Sander et al., 2013).

#### Charcoal and the Forestry Sector

Perceptions of the charcoal–forest nexus have focused on forests as an input to charcoal production, and the impact, thereof, in terms of deforestation and forest degradation (Msuya et al., 2011; Mwampamba et al., 2013; Owen et al., 2013). Less attention has been paid to the potential for charcoal to generate revenues for sustainable natural woodland management, thereby contributing to the retention of forest cover. This can be attributed to the low level of effort that has been made in managing woodlands sustainably for charcoal production. This has created a "vicious cycle," where the status quo of unplanned production is perceived to be the only production model. This leads policy-makers to marginalize, and occasionally attempt to ban charcoal (Mwampamba et al., 2013), thereby missing the opportunity to generate revenues for investment in sustainable management, including in the context of communitybased forest management. The lack of investment in forest management perpetuates the unplanned production model, and so reinforces its negative impact on the forest resource base. From a climate change perspective, the absence of sustainable forest management results in the emission of greenhouse gases from the resultant deforestation and forest degradation (Bailis et al., 2015).

### Charcoal and the Agriculture Sector

The nexus between charcoal and the agriculture sector centers on the allocation of land, labor, and net primary production. The outcome of the nexus between agriculture and charcoal has important implications for forests, given that agriculture generally results in the conversion of forests to cropland i.e., deforestation, whilst charcoal production is more frequently a driver of forest degradation (Ribot, 1999; Chidumayo and Gumbo, 2013; Woollen et al., 2016). At one level, agriculture and charcoal production compete with each other for land, labor, and net primary production, albeit for the common purpose of feeding people. However, whilst sustainable charcoal production requires post-harvesting regeneration of woodland, crop production results in deforestation. Sustainable charcoal production from natural woodlands is existentially dependent on the continued availability of those woodlands, and, by default, the ecosystem services generated by those woodlands (**Figure 1**).

Although data on the proportion of deforestation attributable to specific drivers is not readily available in many countries (Hosonuma et al., 2012), there is considerable evidence to demonstrate that agriculture is the main driver of deforestation in Africa, even in countries, such as Tanzania, where charcoal has also been identified as a significant deforestation driver (Gibbs et al., 2010; Chidumayo and Gumbo, 2013; Krausmann et al., 2013; Willcock et al., 2016). The question of whether, and how much, deforestation is caused by charcoal production, has been raised by several authors (Ribot, 1999; Mwampamba et al., 2013) and raises complex semantic issues (Lund, 2015), as well as unpicking the spatially heterogeneous inter-play of drivers of land use change. The availability of higher resolution and more frequent remote sensing images is helping to generate a more robust, and finer scale understanding of land use change, including deforestation (Hansen et al., 2013).

Whilst crop production is a major driver of deforestation, it is also dependent on the ecosystem services that forests provide, such as regulation of water quality and flow, protection of soils from erosion, and provision of habitats for pollinators and predators of crop pests (Foley et al., 2005; Ninan and Inoue, 2013). As such, forests play a binding role in the nexus between charcoal and agriculture, particularly when we consider the hydrology of agricultural areas. The linkages between forest cover and the hydrology of an area are complex and vary between catchments (Brown et al., 2005; Price, 2011). Maintaining forest cover reduces the risk and severity of flooding in many catchments (Bradshaw et al., 2007), and sustains base flows in some catchments, particularly those prone to soil hardpan formation and soil compaction, when deforested (Bruijnzeel, 1988; Price, 2011). Deforestation therefore has implications for downstream agricultural production, particularly for areas under irrigation. With climate change, the risks to agricultural production due to fluctuating dry season flows are likely to increase with the longer, drier dry season predicted for parts of Africa, including parts of Tanzania, by some climate models (de Wit and Stankiewicz, 2006; Watkiss et al., 2011). Therefore, policies that promote incentives to maintain forest cover, including sustainable charcoal, may also contribute to safe-guarding dry-season irrigation in downstream agricultural areas.

The nexus between charcoal and crop production is bound further by their common labor force. CamCo Clean Energy (Tanzania) Limited (2014) estimate that 300,000 households are involved in charcoal production in Tanzania.

Most charcoal producers are also farmers who practice charcoal production in the dry season (Zulu and Richardson, 2013). Charcoal production also provides an economic safety net for farmers in case of crop failure or others shocks to a household's livelihood (ibid; Jones et al., 2016). This points to the potential for sustainable charcoal production to enhance

livelihood resilience in rural households vulnerable to climate change-related shocks.

The trade-off between charcoal production and agriculture is also influenced by land policy. Sustainable charcoal production requires national land policies that promote sustainable woodland management as a land use, and promote secure forest tenure, over a timescale proportionate to the 8–30-year woodland regeneration cycle. In this paper, we examine this nexus between charcoal, energy, forests, agriculture, land, and water, and the degree to which these connections are reflected in national policy.

## METHODS

We apply an interpretive approach to policy analysis (Yanow, 2007), specifically a close-reading of policy documents. We selected Tanzania as a case study due to its high dependency on charcoal amongst urban households, the high potential for scaling up sustainable charcoal production given extensive areas of woodland in the country, and the authors' familiarity with the charcoal trade in Tanzania through involvement in the ongoing "Transforming Tanzania's Charcoal Sector project" financed by the Government of Switzerland.

We reviewed over-arching national policies including the constitution (URT, 1977), development vision (URT, 1999), and national climate change strategy (URT, 2012). We reviewed the national policies for the energy, forest, agriculture, land, and water sectors. We reviewed each national policy document for references to sustainable charcoal production, natural forest management, charcoal, forest produce, woodfuel, biomass energy, and/or other terms with a similar meaning. For those sectoral policies that referred to any of these terms, we reviewed additional policy instruments including regulations, orders, guidelines, strategies, and plans. Text referring to those terms was compared to identify similarities and differences between policies. We compared the ways in which those terms are, or are not, presented in the policy background descriptions, issues, objectives, and statements. In our comparison, we also looked for statements on inter-sectoral connections related to sustainable forest management and/or the charcoal trade. The list of policy documents that we reviewed is provided in **Table 1**. We focused on charcoal produced from natural woodlands, rather than charcoal from plantations or fuel briquettes. We have followed FAO (2004) in its definitions of charcoal and fuelwood. However, we use a narrow definition of woodfuel to mean solid, direct woodfuels, specifically charcoal and firewood.

By looking at policy content, we focused primarily on the policy formulation and decision-making stage of the policy cycle, and to a lesser degree, the agenda-setting and implementation steps. The policy cycle provides a conceptual framework based on a simplified chronology of the policy process. Jann and Wegrich (2007) present a 5-step policy cycle model comprising: agenda-setting, policy formulation and decisionmaking, implementation, evaluation, and termination. Agendasetting is the process by which issues are selected, or rejected, for inclusion in a particular policy. Research on agenda-setting might look at how policy makers select the issues to include in, or exclude from, national policy, and in which policy to include those issues. Research on agenda-setting also addresses political

#### TABLE 1 | Tanzanian policy documents reviewed.

#### OVER-ARCHING POLICY DOCUMENTS

The Constitution of the United Republic of Tanzania, 1977, Cap 2 (URT, 1977)

The Tanzania Development Vision 2025 (URT, 1999)

The National 5 Year Development Plan 2016/17–2020/21 (URT, 2016a)

#### ENERGY

The Rural Energy Act, 2005. Act No. 8 of 2005

The National Energy Policy, 2015 (URT, 2015b)

The National Energy Policy, Draft 2013

The National Energy Policy, 2003 (URT, 2003)

The Biomass Energy Strategy for Tanzania, Draft 2014 [CamCo Clean Energy (Tanzania) Limited (2014)]

Ministry of Energy and Minerals: Strategic Plan 2011/12–2015/16. MEM, 2011 (TFS, 2013b)

#### AGRICULTURE

The National Agriculture Policy, 2013 (URT, 2013a) The National Livestock Policy, 2006 (URT, 2006)

#### LAND

The National Land Policy, Draft 2016 (URT, 2016b)

The National Land Policy, 1997 (URT, 1997b)

The Land Act, 1999. Act No. 4 of 1999. Cap 113

The Village Land Act, 1999. Act No. 5 of 1999. Cap 114

#### WATER

The National Water Policy, 2002

The Water Resources Management Act, 2009. Act No. 11 of 2009

#### FOREST

#### Forest Policies

The National Forest Policy, 1998 (URT, 1998) The National Forest Policy, Draft 2014 (URT, 2014)

#### Forest Laws and Regulations

The Forest Act, 2002, Act No. 14 of 2002, Cap 323 The Forest (Amendment) Regulations, GN 324 of 2015 The Forest (Amendment) Regulations, GN 433 of 2013

The Forest (Amendment) Regulations, GN 69 of 2006

#### Forestry Sector Guidelines and Public Notices

Community-Based Forest Management Guidelines. Forestry and Beekeeping Division, 2007

Joint Forest Management Guidelines. Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism, 2013

Guidelines for Harvesting in Village Land Forest Reserves. Tanzania Forest Services Agency, 2013 (TFS, 2013a)

Public Notice regarding procedures for trade in forest products. Tanzania Forest Services Agency, 2015

Mwongozo wa uvunaji endelevu na biashara ya mazao ya misitu yanayovunwa katika misitu ya asili (Guidelines on sustainable harvesting and trade in forest products from natural forests). Tanzania Forest Services Agency, 2015

National Woodfuel Action Plan. Forestry and Beekeeping Division, 2009. Draft

Tanzania Forest Services Agency Strategic Plan. July 2014–June 19. Tanzania Forest Services Agency, 2013

#### Other Forestry Sector Reports

Participatory forest management in Tanzania: facts and figures. Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism, 2012

(Continued)

#### TABLE 1 | Continued

The National forest resources monitoring and assessment of Tanzania Mainland: main results. Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism, 2015 Maelezo kuhusu Wakala wa Huduma za Misitu, Tanzania: majukumu, mafanikio, changamoto na mikakati (2011–2015) [Information about the Tanzania Forest Services Agency: responsibilities, achievements, challenges and strategies (2011–2015)]. Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism, 2016 ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE The National Environmental Policy, VPO, 1997 (URT, 1997a) The Environmental Management Act, 2004. Act No. 20 of 2004. Cap 191 The Draft National Environment Policy 2016 (URT, 2016c) The National Climate Change Strategy, 2012 (URT, 2012)

questions in terms of whose issues make it onto the policy agenda, and who defines those issues. This flows into the policy formulation and decision-making step, which involves making choices about the purpose of a policy and the broad strategy to be pursued, in order to achieve those objectives. Once policy has been defined, the next step is for it to be implemented, including defining the regulatory, financial, and organizational details and enacting the strategies and plans. Policy implementation research includes looking at the way in which a policy is enacted, including its impact, cost-effectiveness, and inter-play with other policies. The evaluation and termination steps of the policy cycle cover the process of reviewing a policy and the subsequent steps of policy change. In reality, the steps are frequently overlapping, particularly when looking at an issue such as charcoal which cuts across multiple sectors each following its own unique policy cycle. The policy cycle framework has been criticized for being over-simplistic, top-down, and insensitive to context. It has also persisted in policy research, as a heuristic device, within which a plethora of quantitative and qualitative methods may be applied. Whilst recognizing its shortfalls, we find it to be a useful framework within which to position our research.

#### RESULTS

#### Tanzania's Development Vision as Determinant of Sector Policies

National policies are designed to guide a sector to play its part in achieving a broader national vision. As context for the paper's review of individual sectors, it is important to understand Tanzania's development vision as a key determinant of policy content. Tanzania's Development Vision 2025 aims at achieving "a high quality livelihood for its people, attain good governance through the rule of law and develop a strong and competitive economy" (URT, 1999).

In terms of economic development, it is envisaged that by 2025, "The economy will have been transformed from a low productivity agricultural economy to a semi-industrialized one..." In terms of economic targets, the Vision states that by 2025 there will be "a diversified and semi-industrialized economy with a substantial industrial sector comparable to typical middle-income countries." It is also envisioned that "fast growth will be pursued while effectively reversing current adverse trends in the loss and degradation of environmental resources (such as forests, fisheries, fresh water, climate, soils, biodiversity)." The national development vision is further elaborated in Tanzania's current 5 year development plan which includes targets to "reduce charcoal consumption in urban areas by 30% by 2020/21 and by 60% by 2025/26," as well as to "promote... renewable green energy technologies (biogas, LPG, Solar Energy)." Overall, the vision equates modernity with a shift away from the status quo where 75% of the work force is employed in an agriculture sector dominated by subsistence, small-scale crop production (URT, 2013a) and toward industrialization and a higher quality of life.

#### Woodfuel and Charcoal in National Policies

We found that, at policy level, no current national policies include objectives, or statements, giving specific directions on sustainable charcoal production. The word "charcoal" appears in the National Forest Policy, 1998 (URT, 1998) (N = 2), and the National Energy Policy, 2015 (URT, 2015b) (N = 5), seven times. Six of these seven occurrences are in the sector descriptions and outline the general importance of charcoal as an energy carrier in Tanzania, or its role in environmental degradation. One forest policy direction makes specific reference to restricting the export of charcoal. These statements are cited in **Table 2**. The Environmental Policy, 1997, uses the broader term "woodfuel" rather than charcoal, and provides the most comprehensive guidance, including policy objectives to "minimize woodfuel consumption and develop alternative energy sources and woodfuel energy efficiency and to promote rational exploitation of forest resources accompanied with reforestation and afforestation programmes...for domestic consumption and export..." The terms charcoal and woodfuel do not occur in the constitution and development vision, nor in the agriculture,

TABLE 2 | National policy statements that include the term "charcoal."

#### National Forest Policy, 1998 (URT, 1998)

2.0 Main sectoral problems and opportunities

The main reasons for deforestation are clearing for agriculture, overgrazing, wildfires, charcoal burning and over-exploitation of wood resources

4.2.5 Trade in forest products

Internal trade and export of certain forest products such as...charcoal..., may be restricted or remain under licensing until the conditions for sustainable forest management and utilization are in place

#### National Energy Policy, 2013

#### 1.2 Energy situation in Tanzania

The national energy balance indicates dominance of biomass use in the form of charcoal and firewood and its contribution to the total national energy consumption is about 85 percent

Charcoal consumption mainly in urban areas has nearly doubled over the past 10 years due to urbanization, high prices or scarcity of other alternatives particularly kerosene, electricity and LPG. It is projected that demand for charcoal, without supply and demand side interventions will double by 2030, from approximately 2.3 million tons of charcoal in 2012. The Government has been promoting substitution of charcoal and firewood by providing tax relief to stimulate the use of LPG in the country

livestock, land, or water policies. Overall, there is consistency between the energy, forest, and environmental policies which present charcoal as an environmental problem to be resolved primarily through fuel-switching. **Table 3** provides an overview and timeline of the policies and other key regulatory documents included in this review.

Consideration of cross-cutting issues, including environment, began to be a standard component of national policies in Tanzania after 2003 (URT, 2003). Thus, older policies, such as those for land, forest, and water, do not include sections on crosscutting issues, whilst the more recent agricultural, livestock, and energy policies include policy objectives and statements related to the environment as a cross-cutting issue.

### Sustainable Charcoal Production and the National Energy Policy

The focus on fuel-switching is exemplified in the mission of the National Energy Policy, 2015 (URT, 2015b), which is, "To provide reliable, affordable, safe, efficient and environment friendly modern energy services to all while ensuring effective participation of Tanzanians in the sector." Modern energy is defined as "energy that is based on petroleum, electricity or any other energy forms that have commercialized market channels, a higher heating or energy content value than traditional energy." In its policy statements, biomass is only included in relation to the objective of enhancing the utilization of renewable energy resources so as to increase its contribution in diversifying resources for electricity generation (URT, 2015b). A focus on fuel-switching from biomass to other energy carriers has remained consistent in Tanzania's national energy policies over the last 25 years. However, the 2015 policy differs from the 1992 and 2003 energy policies in excluding any objective related to sustainable production of woodfuels, except in the context of electricity generation. For example, the National Energy Policy, 2003 (URT, 2003), included the guiding statement "promote efficient biomass conversion and end-use technologies in order to save resources; reduce rate of deforestation and land degradation; and minimizing threats on climate change."

Between 2010 and 2014, the Government of Tanzania developed a biomass energy strategy and action plan, with financial support from the European Union. The primary goal of the strategy was, "To make biomass energy sustainable in Tanzania." The strategy proposed five activity bundles aimed at "ensuring that biomass energy is sustainable in Tanzania along the entire value chain," including sustainable charcoal production. However, as of May 2017, the strategy had not been adopted. Policies were also drafted for petroleum, natural gas, and renewable energy, of which the natural gas policy was approved, whilst others remained in draft form. These policies were then merged into the National Energy Policy, 2015 (URT, 2015b; Muhongo, 2016). Solid biomass energy was excluded from the National Energy Policy during the final stages of the policy revision process. A consultative draft of the National Energy Policy included a policy objective, "To enhance production and rational use of solid biomass resources," and a policy statement, "Encourage sustainable production of solid biomass" (URT,

(Continued)

2015a). During the stakeholder consultation process, Tanzanian Civil Society Organizations asked for the policy to provide even more guidance on charcoal and submitted specific proposals for text to be included in the policy (TFCG, 2015a). However, instead of providing more explicit guidance on charcoal, the objective on solid biomass resources was subsequently narrowed, solely to refer to biomass in the context of electricity generation. The result is a policy that, on the one hand, states that, "The national energy balance indicates dominance of biomass use in the form of charcoal and firewood and its contribution to the total national energy consumption is about 85 percent," and, on the other hand, provides no specific guidance on how to manage that energy carrier.

#### Sustainable Charcoal Production and the National Forest Policy

The National Forest Policy, 1998 (URT, 1998), also recognizes the importance of woodfuels in the national economy whilst promoting fuel-switching, in its direction that, "The use of alternative affordable sources of energy will be promoted through research and extension." In addition, the forest policy promotes the "establishment of private woodlots and plantations for woodfuel production." Tanzania's National Forest Policy, 1998 (URT, 1998), has been under review since 2008 when a zero draft was circulated to stakeholders for comments, with another draft circulated for comments in 2014, and a committee formed to finalize the policy in 2017. The lengthy revision process, in part, reflects the intervening transfer of forest management responsibilities from the Forestry and Beekeeping Division to the, more autonomous, Tanzania Forest Services Agency (TFS), which was established in 2010. In this paper, both the 1998 policy, and the 2014 draft policy document, are considered. Although in draft form, the 2014 policy is relevant as an indication of the policy direction being considered.

The four overall objectives of the 1998 policy include the objective, "To ensure sustainable supply of forest products and services by maintaining sufficient forest area under effective management;" and "To ensure ecosystem stability through conservation of forest biodiversity, water catchments and soil fertility." The policy includes policy objectives and statements reflecting a commitment to planned, sustainable forest management as a means to supply various forest products and ecosystem services, including charcoal. The goal of the 2014 draft forest policy, which has remained largely unchanged since 2008, is "enhanced contribution of the forest sector to the sustainable development of Tanzania and the conservation and management of her forest resources for the benefit of the present and future generations." Of its four objectives, the most relevant objective of the 2014 draft policy is, "To ensure sustainable supply of forest products and services by maintaining sufficient forest under effective management." As with the 1998 policy, the draft 2014 forest policy is supportive of community based forest management including sustainable production of charcoal and other forest products.

URT (2002) and supporting regulations, guidelines, and orders provide further policy support for sustainably managed, productive forest reserves, including village land forest reserves. For example, the Forest Act, 2002, empowers Village Councils (through the designated village committee) to establish productive village land forest reserves and to issue permits for the extraction of forest produce including charcoal, provided that sustainable management plans are in place. Since the 1990s, more than 530 Village Land Forest Reserves have been established (TFS, 2012 plus TFCG data), including 2.4 million ha of woodland and forest, however, until 2012, none had integrated sustainable charcoal production into their management plans. In part this can be attributed to a lack of guidelines on policy implementation, with policy guidelines on forest product harvesting in village land forest reserves focusing on timber, rather than on charcoal (TFS, 2013a). Since 2012, a project in Morogoro Region, led by the Tanzania Forest Conservation Group (TFCG), has been piloting sustainable charcoal production embedded in community-based forest management as a demonstration for scaling up to other village land forests.

In the context of woodfuel, the draft 2014 National Forest Policy (URT, 2014) states that, "Establishment of private woodlots and plantations, planting of trees on farm for wood fuel production, efficient wood energy conversion and use technologies and alternative sources of energy will be promoted." As with other policies, there is a focus on fuel-switching and tree planting. Under the forestry sector, Tanzania's 5-year development plan includes a target of increasing forest area by 130,000 ha by 2020/21 and 160,000 ha by 2025 through tree planting, for which it indicates a budget of TZS 150 billion and a target of 280 million trees/year, for implementation by the Government (URT, 2016a). The commitment to expand plantations is also reflected in the TFS strategic plan for 2014/19 which includes a target of 50,000 ha of new plantation by 2019 (TFS, 2013b). The 5-year Development Plan indicates that all other forestry sector activities including capacity building and nature reserve management should be paid for by Development Partners (URT, 2016a). Although the policy promotes planting of trees for wood fuel, in reality, most plantations are targeting the timber market, given a higher price per cubic meter for wood when sold as timber than as charcoal. As such, replacing charcoal from natural woodlands with charcoal from plantations, is only likely to succeed at the point where charcoal becomes a more profitable end product than timber for plantation owners. The profitability of charcoal from plantations and woodlots relative to the profitability of timber and other forest products, is often overlooked by those proposing that planted trees be used in charcoal production.

# Sustainable Charcoal Production and the National Agriculture Policy

The 2013 Agriculture Policy's mission is, "to facilitate the transformation of the agricultural sector into a modern, commercial and competitive sector in order to ensure food security and poverty alleviation through increased volumes of competitive crop products" (URT, 2013a). The focus on transforming agriculture from traditional, subsistence crop production to a more intensive, commercialized system is aligned with the National Development Vision. The National Agriculture Policy states that, "by definition the agricultural sector is comprised of the crops, livestock, fisheries, forestry and hunting sub sectors," it then goes on to limit its scope to "crop production." Charcoal production and forestry are not included in the scope of the policy. Whilst the policy is not explicit in promoting the conversion of forests or woodlands to agriculture, it is implicit in its view that 440,000 km2 of land in Tanzania "are suitable for agricultural production." Similarly, the National Livestock Policy, (URT, 2006), includes 200,000 km2 of "fallow and forestland" in its estimate of the national rangeland resource. Evidence that this assumes woodland conversion to agriculture is also reflected in the National Land Use Framework Plan for 2013– 2033, which includes areas of woodland in the land categories designated for the expansion and intensification of agriculture (URT, 2013b).

As well as implicitly promoting land use change from woodland to agriculture, the National Agriculture Policy includes an objective to expand the area of agricultural land under irrigation from 0.4 to 7.1 million hectares (URT, 2013a). Expanding irrigation is presented as a strategy to mitigate climate change-related risks to agriculture. The dependence of agriculture on forest ecosystem services is recognized under cross-cutting issues and there is one policy statement, "efficient use of renewable natural resources shall be strengthened."

# Sustainable Charcoal Production and the National Land Policy

Tanzania has retained a land tenure structure that deliberately excludes the concept of "freehold" and is instead based on the principle that all land is public land where tenure is defined in terms of "rights of occupancy." The National Land Policy of 1997 (URT, 1997b) identifies five important characteristics, including development conditions, that are imposed on landholders. The objectives of the policy include, "Ensuring that land is put to its most productive use to promote rapid social and economic development of the country and protecting land resources from degradation for sustainable development." The policy is founded on a "use it or lose it" principle where rights of occupancy are tied to development conditions. This is important in the context of understanding the land policy–charcoal nexus since tenure is tied to land use. However, the concept of "use" is not defined either to include, or exclude, sustainable forest management including charcoal production. In contrast, other uses are explicitly covered including agriculture, both for crop cultivation and livestock, mining, and settlements. There are no examples of rights of occupancy being given to private land owners for sustainable charcoal production from natural woodlands.

In 2015, the Tanzanian Government began a revision of the National Land Policy. The draft National Land Policy of 2016 (URT, 2016b) retains important elements of the 1997 policy, including the concept of rights of occupancy and the categorization of land as village, general, and reserved land. The draft policy does not mention sustainable charcoal production, although it does include an objective for the "effective protection, conservation and sustainable utilization of environmentally sensitive areas," which are defined to include forests. The policy emphasizes formalization of land tenure including widespread issuing of granted and customary rights of occupancy. The promotion of the privatization of land tenure contrasts with the forest policy's focus on communally-owned village land forest reserves.

### Sustainable Charcoal Production and the National Water Policy

The water policy does not mention the term "charcoal," and equates the term "energy" with electricity. The National Water Policy recognizes the forest–water linkages and states that, "Forests have an important effect on the conservation of water resources." The policy goes on to state that with the current population growth rate, Tanzania will shift from having 2,700 m3 /person/year to 1,200 m3 /person/year between 2000/1 and 2025. According to UN criteria, this represents a transition toward water scarcity which is broadly defined as being 1,000 m3 /person/year (Falkenmark et al., 2007).

### DISCUSSION

The results of our analysis of Tanzanian policies on energy, forests, agriculture, land, and water, map out the marginalization of sustainable charcoal production across national policies despite the potential economic, social, and ecological benefits of managing natural woodlands sustainably for charcoal production. Our findings systematically document policy gaps related to sustainable charcoal production, and provide an indepth and updated analysis of the broader policy environment.

The marginalization of charcoal is most starkly apparent in Tanzania's energy policy, wherein the National Energy Policy 2015 (URT, 2015b) defines modern energy as the antonym to woodfuels, as the traditional energy carrier. The policy then deals exclusively with modern energy. This reflects a deeprooted perception that charcoal is part of the traditional way of life that the national development vision seeks to transform, and has no place in the model of modernity envisaged for the country. The omission of a policy objective or statement on sustainable charcoal production from the National Energy Policy means that for the duration of this policy cycle, there is no high-level commitment to produce charcoal and fuelwood more sustainably, nor to provide strategic oversight regarding its supply or quality. Given projected increases in demand for charcoal, and given that the majority of Tanzanians rely on woodfuel, this policy omission means that the National Energy Policy fails to provide guidance on Tanzania's main energy carrier, a situation that risks perpetuating uncontrolled production and concomitant negative environmental impacts. Even if Tanzania's draft biomass energy strategy were to be revived, in the absence of a policy-level objective on woodfuel, the strategy will have no anchor in national policy, thereby risking continued marginalization. This reinforces findings by Mwampamba et al. (2013) regarding the extent to which deeply rooted misconceptions about charcoal have led policymakers to select policies that seek to exclude charcoal from the national energy mix, rather than embrace sustainable production techniques.

Economic development inevitably leads to trade-offs between land uses, and requires choices to be made between the conversion of forests into anthropogenic land uses such as agriculture, on the one hand, and maintaining natural forests with their inherent ecosystem services, on the other (Foley et al., 2005). Our review has shown how Tanzania's development vision and sectoral policies have marginalized the sustainable woodland management land use option for village land. That agriculture is valued more highly than natural woodland, in part, reflects systemic challenges in integrating the complex concepts under-pinning ecosystem service valuation in decisions over allocation of land and natural resources (Martinez-Harms et al., 2015). Similarly the economic value of the charcoal trade, estimated at US\$ 650 million, is poorly understood and is not communicated in national accounts (Sander et al., 2013). For example, official national figures on government revenues from natural forest products do not distinguish charcoal from other products, including timber. Between 2011/12 and 2014/15, TFS reported TZS 187 billion (∼US\$ 86.5 million) in natural forest product royalties (TFS, 2016), however, the proportion attributable to charcoal is not stated. Although national figures do not disaggregate revenues from charcoal, at a lower level of government, some TFS Zonal offices disaggregate their revenue by forest product. Zonal government revenue figures indicate that charcoal comprised between 10 and 71% of natural forest product revenues in some zones (TFCG, 2015b, Lukumbuzya and Sianga, 2016). The absence of official figures on the value of the charcoal trade contributes to it being under-valued as a land use option, when compared with crops with well-documented trade data. Thus, whilst charcoal has many similarities with traditional crops, in terms of its requirements for land, labor, and net primary production, it is not considered a crop in the agriculture policy, and it is under-valued when land use tradeoffs are being made between agriculture and woodland on village land.

Similarly, sustainable charcoal production is not recognized explicitly as a land use in the National Land Policy. Given that land tenure is tied to land use in the Tanzanian land policy, the absence of explicit recognition for sustainable charcoal production as a land use category, risks the marginalization of sustainable woodland management in favor of agriculture and other cited land uses, particularly given the current trend to privatize village land.

Optimizing water allocation between sectors is another relevant area for policy makers to consider, in the context of selecting an optimal mix of energy carriers, particularly given projected population increases. Beyond charcoal's dependence on forests and forests' absorption of water, traditional charcoal production places minimal demand on water supplies. In contrast, electricity generation from fossil fuels, as promoted in the National Energy Policy, 2015 (URT, 2015b), consumes water at all stages of the energy production life cycle (Mielke et al., 2010). As such, charcoal production using earth kilns is a more water-efficient energy source than electricity, a relevant consideration in the context of growing water scarcity. The relative water requirements of different energy carriers are not considered by either the national water policy, nor by the National Energy Policy.

Given the 2013 National Agriculture Policy's objective to increase land under irrigation, so the protection of the base flows essential for dry-season irrigation becomes critical for policy implementation. Sustainable woodland management for charcoal production may, therefore, be a useful policy tool for protecting base flows, when compared with conversion of woodland to agriculture in catchment areas. Policies that favor sustainable forest management and provide incentives to communities to safeguard the forest resources on their land, may therefore contribute to securing base flows vital to downstream water users, as well as reducing flooding risks.

Few attempts have been made to look strategically at the potential volume of charcoal production from current natural forests in Tanzania. CamCo Clean Energy (Tanzania) Limited (2014) calculated that 2.3 million tons of charcoal were consumed in Tanzania in 2012. They estimated that this required 350,000 ha of woodland, assuming a mean biomass of 50 m3 /ha and a conversion efficiency of 19%. If we extrapolate this further and assume a 24 year rotation cycle for a sustainable system, it would require 8.4 million ha (24 × 350,000 ha) to be under management for sustainable charcoal production, in order to meet 2012 supply levels over the next 20 years or so. According to MNRT (2015) there are 21.6 million ha of forest on village land of which approximately 10%, or 2.3 million ha, are already included in areas under community-based forest management (CBFM). Of the existing areas under CBFM, a significant proportion is too ecologically sensitive to be appropriate for charcoal production, particularly given a tendency for CBFM projects to prioritize high biodiversity areas. Nonetheless, it shows that a significant proportion of charcoal demand could be met through sustainable production from the 21.6 million ha of woodland remaining on village land, including a portion of the area already under CBFM. Even meeting Tanzania's 5-year development plan target of reducing demand by 30%, would still require most of the remaining woodland on village land to be brought under sustainable production.

Given Tanzania's increasing, and increasingly urban, population, it is clear that sustainable charcoal production alone cannot meet projected urban energy needs. Undoubtedly fuel-switching is also needed. Including sustainable charcoal production in national policies would help to generate the broad political support and stakeholder buy-in that is needed to transform the trade in favor of sustainable production.

The exclusion from national policies of sustainable charcoal production reflects three factors that affect each step in the policy cycle. These are the absence of detailed, accurate data on the charcoal trade; deeply-rooted negative perceptions of the trade; and the weak organizing and advocacy capacity of producers, traders, and consumers. The lack of reliable, current data about many important attributes of the charcoal value chain, as well as deeply held negative perceptions of charcoal amongst policy makers, have been highlighted by various authors (Mwampamba et al., 2013; Owen et al., 2013; Sander et al., 2013). Statements by some Ministers and other policy-makers in the current Government, as reported in the Tanzanian media and/or observed by the authors, generally reinforce the findings of Mwampamba et al. (2013). For example, the belief that charcoal is responsible for much of Tanzania's deforestation, is commonly cited by Ministers as the primary reason for excluding charcoal from Tanzania's energy mix1,2. We propose three other reasons as to why policy makers choose to marginalize sustainable production. Firstly, few policy makers understand, or believe, that charcoal can be produced in a sustainable way. This reflects how few practical examples there are of charcoal being produced sustainably. Relatedly, technical expertise in managing natural woodlands for sustainable charcoal production is limited in Tanzania, where higher learning institutions have not embraced it into their curricula. Secondly, we contend that the role of agriculture as the main deforestation driver in Tanzania is poorly known amongst many policy-makers, in part, due to there being inadequate, and inadequately publicized, empirical research on deforestation drivers at a national scale. Given agriculture's primacy in Tanzania's economic development plans, we also speculate that it is politically convenient to apportion blame for deforestation on charcoal, instead of on agriculture. Thirdly, the difficulties of inter-sectoral coordination, required to transform the charcoal market, have hindered change. Undoubtedly, the political economy of the charcoal trade is complex and more indepth research is needed to understand more fully the dynamics at play during the agenda-setting step of the policy cycle.

Advocacy from actors along the charcoal value chain has been muted in Tanzania. This reflects the informal nature of the sector where producers, transporters, and traders are often poorly educated, poor, and lack coordinating networks for advocacy. This contrasts with the advocacy capacity of stakeholders in the natural gas sector where natural gas prospecting and development companies had the resources, experience, and networks to lobby the Ministry of Energy and

1 'On March 1, 2017, the Minister for Natural Resources and Tourism, Prof. Jumanne Magembe, banned transportation of charcoal from one district to another to combat what he described as deforestation in the country.' In Kitabu, G. How charcoal ban could work in the absence of viable alternative? The Guardian (Tanzania) 21/03/2017 P. 12. http://www.ippmedia.com/en/features/ how-charcoal-ban-could-work-absence-viable-alternative

2 Jumanne Maghembe, the minister of Tourism and Natural Resources, said in December that cutting wood for charcoal needs to stop because it spurs desertification. In Makoye, K. To save forests, Tanzania considers tax on charcoal. Reuters 23/01/2017. http://www.reuters.com/article/tanzania-forestcharcoal-idUSL5N1F945L

Minerals intensively during the formulation of the Natural Gas Policy and the National Energy Policy. Although some civil society organizations, including the Tanzania Forest Conservation Group, have facilitated meetings to highlight issues around charcoal production and to promote sustainable charcoal production, these efforts were insufficient to persuade the Tanzanian Government on the critical need for the 2015 National Energy Policy to provide direction for sustainable charcoal production (URT, 2015b). The weak voice of charcoal stakeholders has contributed to the National Energy Policy's exclusive focus on fossil fuels and electricity generation.

The review has identified important priorities for research including: quantitative assessments of the relative impact of drivers of deforestation and forest degradation; rigorous comparative studies of the costs and benefits of alternative energy carriers and policy options, taking into consideration intersectoral implications; experimentation with different models of sustainable charcoal production; and a strategic environmental assessment and cost-benefit analysis of the Government's tree planting proposals relative to increased investment in natural woodland management.

# CONCLUSION

Sustainable charcoal production from natural woodlands has been marginalized as a policy option in all sectors in Tanzania. The marginalization of sustainable charcoal production in the energy and forest sectors is exacerbated by the land policy in providing no explicit recognition of sustainable woodland management as a recognized land use, and by the agricultural policy in promoting the expansion of agricultural land. If woodlands do not generate income for their owners, including communities, the economic rationale to convert woodland to agricultural land is strengthened. Assuming that sustainable charcoal production can incentivize sustainable woodland management, an opportunity is therefore being missed to embed a sustainable financing mechanism into participatory woodland management. Widespread conversion of woodland to agriculture inevitably undermines the ecosystem services generated by those woodlands, with corresponding risks to those sectors that depend on those ecosystem services, particularly agriculture. The marginalization of sustainable charcoal production from national policy is, therefore, a missed opportunity given the potential for it to contribute to more climate-resilient rural livelihoods, urban energy security, and sustainable management of woodlands with their inherent ecosystem services including climate change mitigation.

Based on this review we recommend that policy objectives and statements supporting sustainable charcoal be included in

### REFERENCES

the energy and forest sector policies whilst revising policies on water, agriculture, and land to include objectives and statements that promote sustainable natural forest management and reduce agriculture-driven deforestation. We envisage a charcoal market supplying charcoal from sustainably managed, community- and privately-owned woodlands to urban households. Tax revenues would continue to be retained at village and district level in order to incentivize and finance sustainable management of natural woodlands. The professionalism and organization of charcoal producers would increase with concomitant environmental benefits in terms of compliance with efficiency and sustainability guidelines, as well as improved livelihoods for producers, and other rural development gains.

The benefits of sustainable charcoal production become evident when viewed from the perspectives of multiple sectors. The nexus approach to policy analysis adopted in this paper highlights the need for policy makers to consider the intersectoral implications of charcoal production and to develop more robust mechanisms to value ecosystem services when making tradeoffs in the allocation of land and natural resources. The analysis also highlights the need for change throughout the policy cycle, including generating a stronger knowledge base, and valuing the needs and interests of more marginalized stakeholders, including woodland-owning communities and charcoal producers. The lessons learned from Tanzania have implications for other countries dependent on charcoal from natural woodlands including the leading charcoal producers in Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, and Nigeria.

# AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS

ND: lead author responsible for review concept, research design, drafting of the manuscript. CM: responsible for significant intellectual contributions to review design, inputs, and confirmation of manuscript for submission.

# FUNDING

Funding for this research was provided by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation as part of its grant to the Tanzania Forest Conservation Group for the Transforming Tanzania's Charcoal Sector project.

# ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors thank Tuyeni Mwampamba, Bettie Luwuge, Elida Fundi, Charles Leonard, and two reviewers for their comments on drafts of this paper.

Tanzania. Report to Development Partners Group and the UK Department for International Development.

**Conflict of Interest Statement:** The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Copyright © 2017 Doggart and Meshack. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

# Conceptual Analysis: The Charcoal-Agriculture Nexus to Understand the Socio-Ecological Contexts Underlying Varied Sustainability Outcomes in African Landscapes

#### Miyuki Iiyama1, 2 \*, Henry Neufeldt 2 , Mary Njenga2 , Abayneh Derero3 , Geoffrey M. Ndegwa4 , Athanase Mukuralinda5 , Philip Dobie2 , Ramni Jamnadass 2 and Jeremias Mowo2

#### Edited by:

*Tuyeni Heita Mwampamba, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico*

#### Reviewed by:

*Harriet Elizabeth Smith, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom Matthew Owen, Kikenni Consulting Ltd., United Kingdom*

\*Correspondence:

*Miyuki Iiyama<EMAIL_ADDRESS><EMAIL_ADDRESS>
#### Specialty section:

*This article was submitted to Agroecology and Land Use Systems, a section of the journal Frontiers in Environmental Science*

> Received: *27 December 2016* Accepted: *30 May 2017* Published: *14 June 2017*

#### Citation:

*Iiyama M, Neufeldt H, Njenga M, Derero A, Ndegwa GM, Mukuralinda A, Dobie P, Jamnadass R and Mowo J (2017) Conceptual Analysis: The Charcoal-Agriculture Nexus to Understand the Socio-Ecological Contexts Underlying Varied Sustainability Outcomes in African Landscapes. Front. Environ. Sci. 5:31. doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2017.00031* *1 Research Strategy Office, Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS), Tsukuba, Japan, 2 World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya, 3 Ethiopian Environment and Forest Research Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 4 Independent Consultant – Natural Resource Management, Renewable Energy and Environment, Nairobi, Kenya, 5 Rwanda Country Office, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Butare, Rwanda*

The production of charcoal is an important socio-economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Charcoal production is one of the leading drivers of rural land-use changes in SSA, although the intensity of impacts on the multi-functionality of landscapes varies considerably. Within a given landscape, charcoal production is closely interconnected to agriculture production both as major livelihoods, while both critically depend on the same ecosystem services. The interactions between charcoal and agricultural production systems can lead to positive synergies of impacts, but will more often result in trade-offs and even vicious cycles. Such sustainability outcomes vary from one site to another due to the heterogeneity of contexts, including agricultural production systems that affect the adoption of technologies and practices. Trade-offs or cases of vicious cycles occur when one-off resource exploitation of natural trees for charcoal production for short-term economic gains permanently impairs ecosystem functions. Given the fact that charcoal, as an important energy source for the growing urban populations and an essential livelihood for the rural populations, cannot be readily substituted in SSA, there must be policies to support charcoal production. Policies should encourage sustainable technologies and practices, either by establishing plantations or by encouraging regeneration, whichever is more suitable for the local environment. To guide context-specific interventions, this paper presents a new perspective—the charcoal-agriculture nexus—aimed at facilitating the understanding of the socio-economic and ecological interactions of charcoal and agricultural production. The nexus especially highlights two dimensions of the socio-ecological contexts: charcoal value chains and tenure systems. Combinations of the two are assumed to underlie varied socio-economic and ecological sustainability outcomes by conditioning incentive mechanisms to affect the adoption of technologies and practices in charcoal and agriculture productions. Contrasting sustainability outcomes from East Africa are presented and discussed through the lens of the charcoal-agriculture nexus. The paper then concludes by emphasizing the importance of taking into account the two-dimensional socio-ecological contexts into effective policy interventions to turn charcoal-agriculture interactions into synergies.

Keywords: the charcoal-agriculture nexus, socio-ecological contexts, value chain, tenure systems, sustainability outcomes, landscapes, Africa

#### INTRODUCTION

The production of charcoal is an important socio-economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) (Mwampamba et al., 2013; Schure et al., 2014). Charcoal is one of the most important cooking energy sources in SSA, used by the majority of the urban population. It is also one of the most commercialized resources (World Bank, 2011; FAO, 2014).

At the same time, charcoal production is one of the leading drivers of rural land-use changes in SSA (Bailis et al., 2005; Iiyama et al., 2014b). The intensity of impacts on multiple ecosystem goods and services varies considerably across landscapes (Chidumayo and Gumbo, 2012). Some studies attempt to assess the impact of charcoal production on the environment, especially on deforestation. Some of them tend to attribute observed deforestation solely to charcoal production and use (Clancy, 2008; Adanu et al., 2009), without discussing the possibility of other competing activities which might also drive deforestation in a given landscape (Geist and Lambin, 2001). Others argue that charcoal is most often produced as a byproduct of displacement for agriculture, which appears to be the most important driver of deforestation (Chidumayo and Gumbo, 2012). Production of charcoal can lead to forest degradation due to large scale tree cutting at the production site level, even when not driving overall forest cover loss (Chidumayo and Gumbo, 2012; Iiyama et al., 2014b, 2015a). Empirical evidence from dryland rural landscapes suggests that charcoal production is indeed causing biodiversity loss, due to selective harvest of indigenous hardwood species (Luoga et al., 2000; Namaalwa et al., 2007; Naughton-Treves et al., 2007; Ndegwa et al., 2016).