The climate of Nigeria is dominated by the influence of three main wind currents: the Tropical Maritime (TM) air mass, the Tropical Continental (TC) air mass, and the Equatorial Easterlies (EE) (Ojo 1977). The TM and TC air masses meet along the Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD), which is a key driver of Nigeria's climate. The position of the ITD and oscillation during the year affects the spatial and temporal distribution of key climate characteristics of the country (Adegoke and Lamptey 1999). Following the annual movement of the ITD across the Equator, the rainfall season over Nigeria advances from the coast to the inland areas from March to August and retreats from September to November, with a pronounced dry period between December and February. The rainfall patterns in Nigeria show the southern parts of the country with annual rainfall over 3000 mm and semiarid conditions in the north with annual rainfall less than 500 mm.

#### Materials and Methods

#### Survey of Livestock Stakeholders

A survey of livestock stakeholders (farmers, researchers, marketers and traders) was carried out in Sahel, Sudan, Northern Guinea Savannah, Southern Guinea Savannah, and Derived Savannah zones of Nigeria (Fig. 1). The regions under these ecoclimatic zones cut across all the 19 States and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) of Nigeria. In total, 362 respondents were interviewed between April and June 2020. The survey instrument used was designed as an online questionnaire (for literate respondents). The other respondents who cannot fill the online form were administered printed questionnaire for the survey.

The distribution of the respondents was 22 in Sahel, 57 in Sudan, 61 in Northern Guinea Savannah, 80 in Southern Guinea Savannah, and 106 in Derived Savannah (Table 2). The respondents were purposively interviewed based on their engagement in livestock production, research or trading activities. The researchers were sourced

Fig. 1 Ecoclimate zones of Nigeria showing the study areas

Table 2 Production characteristics of livestock stakeholders in Savannah and Sudano-Sahelian zones of Nigeria (N ¼ 326)

N is the number of respondents

through their institutional affiliations. The farmers and marketers were sourced through the Agricultural Development Programs and Ministry of Agriculture (or Livestock) of the 19 States in the Northern regions of Nigeria as well as FCT. Key informant interview was conducted with Alhaji Ibrahim Mohammed – Director, FADAMA and Infrastructural Development of Yobe State Agricultural Development Program, Yobe State. The primary data obtained from this work were analyzed using frequency counts and percentages through crosstab analysis of Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) Version 16.

#### Climate Data and Analysis

Representative locations were chosen for Sahel, Sudan, and Northern Guinea Savannah. Ilela, Kiyawa, and Sabon Gari were chosen to represent Sahel, Sudan, and northern Guinea Savannah zone of Nigeria, respectively. Thirty-eight years' climate data from 1982 to 2019 were obtained from Nigerian Metrological Agency, Abuja. The data contained precipitation, relative humidity, and minimum and maximum temperature. This chapter employed the use of grid data obtained from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Authority (NOAA) reanalyzed historic data and complimented with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) data. The major climatic parameters used in this chapter are rainfall, relative humidity, and temperature. To understand the nature of rainfall variation and trend and to determine climate extremes, data from 1982 to 2019 (38 years) for all weather stations within the study area were used. Descriptive statistical methods such as mean and standard deviation were utilized. Furthermore, time series was used for the analysis of rainfall trend over time, and the Moving Average Technique was also used in the analyses of the data. This chapter employed the use of the 3-Year Moving Average. The moving average has the characteristics of reducing the amount of variation in a set of data. This property in the time series is used mostly to remove fluctuations that are not needed. The use of moving average resulted in the formation of new series in which each of the actual value of the original series is replaced by the mean of itself and some of the values immediately preceding it and directly following it Ayoade (2008). To estimate the value of a variable Y (i.e., rainfall), corresponding to a given value of a variable X (i.e., time), regression analysis was applied. This was accomplished by estimating the value of Y from a least-squares curve that fits the sample data.

#### Standardized Precipitation Index and Trend Analysis

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculation used was based on the longterm precipitation record for the desired period. This long-term record is fitted to a probability distribution, which is then transformed into a normal distribution so that the mean SPI for the location and desired period is zero (Edwards and McKee 1997). Positive SPI values indicate greater than median precipitation, and negative values indicate less than median precipitation. Because the SPI is normalized, wetter and drier climates can be represented in the same way, and wet periods can also be monitored using the SPI.

A correlation was done to determine how well a linear equation describes or explains the relationship between variables. From this analysis, the coefficient of determination was obtained, this is given by R2 . The standardized precipitation values were calculated for all the years from the use of the long-term mean, yearly mean, and the standard deviation using the equation below:

$$\mathfrak{q} = \frac{\underline{X} - \overline{X}}{\sigma}$$

where φ represents the standardized departure, x is the actual value of the parameter (annual rainfall), ẍ is the long term mean value of parameter (30 years rainfall average), and σ is the standard deviation.

#### Temperature Humidity Index

The temperature humidity index (THI) was calculated using the following formula:

$$\text{THI} = 0.8 \ast \text{T} + \text{RH} \ast (\text{T} \text{-14.4}) + 46.4$$

where T ¼ ambient or dry-bulb temperature in °C and RH¼relative humidity expressed as a proportion, that is, 75% humidity is expressed as 0.75.

#### Results and Discussion

#### Rainfall Trend/Patterns in Nigeria from 1982 to 2019

The analysis shows the standardized rainfall anomaly over different climatic zones in Nigeria from 1982 to 2019. In the coastal, tropical rainforest, guinea, Sudan savannah areas, it was observed that there are more wet years than dry years. But for the Sahel savannah, the dry years were more than the wet years during the 48 years study period. The result corresponds to IPCC projection stating that the coastal areas are prone to more wet years leading to the occurrence of flooding and rainfall induced erosion, while region around the Sahel will experience more of drought as a result of reduction in the total precipitation.

#### Comparison of Variations in Climatic Elements Among Sahel, Sudan, and Northern Guinea Savannah Zones

#### Precipitation

Figure 2 showed the weighted average precipitation for Sahel, Sudan, and Northern Guinea Savannah zones of Nigeria. Ilela in Sokoto State was used as a reference point for Sahel while Kiyawa, Jigawa State and Sabon Gari, Kaduna State were used as reference points for Sudan and Northern Guinea Savannah zones, respectively. The number of months with substantial period of precipitation was seven from April to October at Ilela (Sahel). The maximum precipitation (7.86 mm) was recorded in July. Similar trends of duration of precipitation were also observed at Kiyawa and Sabon Gari. However, the maximum amount of precipitation was 11.97 and 12.31 mm, respectively, for Kiyawa and Sabon Gari. Figure 3 showed the average total precipitation (mm) for Sahel, Sudan, and Northern Guinea Savannah zones of

Fig. 2 Weighted average precipitation for Sahel, Sudan, and Northern Guinea Savannah zones of Nigeria for 1982 to 2019

Nigeria from 1982 to 2019. The average total volume of precipitations within the 38 years for the three zones were 614.79, 937.32, and 958.58 mm, respectively, for the Sahel, Sudan, and Northern Guinea Savannah zones. The volume of precipitation for Sudan and Northern Guinea Savannah were almost similar for most periods of the year except for July, August, and September when the volumes of rainfall was higher in Northern Guinea Savannah zones of Nigeria. The onset and end of rainfall in the two regions were similar.

Analyses of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) over the Sahel Savannah of Nigeria are presented in Fig. 5. The figure showed that in the first decade (1971–1980) and the second decade (1981–1990) the whole region had mostly

Fig. 3 Average total precipitation (mm) for Sahel, Sudan, and Northern Guinea Savannah zones of Nigeria for 1982 to 2019

negative anomalies. This indicates the zone suffered from serious hydrological drought from 1971 to 1990. However, there was a recovery to positive anomalies in the third decade (1991–2000), fourth decade (2001–2010), and the current decade (2011–2018). The dry years were more than the wet years during the 48 years study period. The result shows the region recorded 27 dry years and 19 wet years which corresponds to IPCC (2007a) projection stating that the Sahel will experience more of drought as a result of reduction in the total precipitation. With the predominant dry years in the region, water erosion should not have been a problem. Areas affected by water erosion challenges in the region indicates the little rainfall amount recorded occurred at very short interval with high intensity thereby generating runoff. This rainfall pattern is typical under a changing climate.

The analysis shows rainfall trend over Sahel Savannah of Nigeria for 1982–2019 as shown in Fig. 1. From 1981 to 1997 rainfall was increasing and decreasing in cycle of 4–5 years, though the cycle was in a declining rainfall order. During the first decade (1982–1990), the pattern showed decreasing rainfall amount. The second decade (1991–2000) up to 2018 showed a steady increase in rainfall amount a little above the average for region. This trend showed by the moving average for the region is in line with the work of Nicholson and Palao (1993), who reported that rainfall in West Africa generally decreased with latitude with essentially zonal isohyets.

#### Rainfall Trend/Patterns in Guinea Savannah of Nigeria

Analyses of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) over the Guinea Savannah of Nigeria clearly show that the first decade (1982–1991) had positive anomalies, and in the second decade (1981–1990) the whole region had mostly negative anomalies.

Fig. 4 Weighted average of relative humidity for Sahel, Sudan, and Northern Guinea Savannah zones of Nigeria for 1982 to 2019

However, there was a recovery to positive anomalies in 1991–2000, 2001–2010, and 2011–2018. The dry years were more than the wet years during the 38 years study period. The result shows the region recorded 22 dry years and 15 wet years which corresponds to IPCC projection stating that the region will experience more of wetness as a result of increase in the total precipitation. This is an indication of increased rainfall pattern in the Guinea Savannah region of Nigeria.

Figure 3 shows the rainfall trend over Guinea Savannah of Nigeria for 1971–2018. In the first decade (1971–1980) and the second decade (1981–1990), it was observed that rainfall was below normal (1971–2000) in the region. During the third (1991–2000), fourth (2001–2010), and current decade (2011–2018) it shows a steady increase in rainfall amount in the region above normal. This result is in line with the work of Nicholson and Palao (1993), who reported that rainfall in West Africa generally decreased with latitude with essentially zonal isohyets.

#### Relative Humidity

The variations of relative humidity for the zones being considered in this chapter are depicted in Fig. 4. The highest proportions of relative humidity were record in August in the three zones being considered in this chapter. However, the amount of water in the atmosphere was lowest in March of every year across the three regions as shown in Fig. 4. The highest values for relative humidity were 81.11%, 85.55%, and 88.06% in Sahel, Sudan, and Northern Guinea savannah zones, respectively. The lowest value also follows similar trend of decreasing northward the zones with 7.77%, 10.09%, and 12.53%, respectively, for Sahel, Sudan, and Northern Guinea savannah zones.

#### Atmospheric Temperature

Figures 5 and 6 show the minimum and maximum temperature in the Sahel, Sudan, and Northern Guinea Savannah zones of Nigeria as represented by Ilela, Kiyawa, and Sabon Gari. The highest value for minimum temperature was observed in May

Fig. 5: Weighted average of minimum temperature for Sahel, Sudan, and Northern Guinea Savannah zones of Nigeria for 1982 to 2019

and the coldest temperature was in January. While the coldest temperature at Ilela, the Sahel climate, is 12.29 °C; the other two climate zones had similar values of 9.34 °C. Ilela had the highest value for the minimum temperature which was 28.76 ° C which was followed by 26.55 °C recorded for Sabon Gari and the least among the three climate zones was 25.19 °C recorded by Kiyawa. The hottest average temperature recorded in all the three zones for the period under consideration in this chapter was 42.55 °C which was recorded at Ilela in the Sahel climate.

#### The Concept of Temperature Humidity Index

Figures 7 and 8 show the temperature humidity index as calculated using minimum and maximum temperatures, respectively. Animals, especially cattle, start having mild stress from index of 72 to 78. Severe stress starts from 79 to 88 (Table 1). Using the minimum temperatures as reference, the animals in Sahel ecoclimate were mildly

Fig. 6 Weighted average of maximum temperature for Sahel, Sudan, and Northern Guinea Savannah zones of Nigeria for 1982 to 2019

stressed due to heat and relative humidity interactions in May, June, and some days of July. Considering the animals during the maximum temperatures; they were mildly stressed in January, February, and December. That is the period of harmattan in the region. However, the animals are severely stressed for most of the other periods of the year. There were occasions of very severe stress on the animals during some parts of May and June (Fig. 8).

#### Livestock Production Characteristics in Sahel, Sudan, and Guinea Savannah Zones of Nigeria

Table 2 shows the production characteristics of livestock stakeholders in the Savannah and Sudano-Sahelian zones of Nigeria. Majority of the respondents were livestock farmers (62.3%). Substantial proportions of the respondents were research

Fig. 7 Temperature humidity index using minimum temperature at Ilela, Sokoto State, as reference point for Sahel ecoclimate zone

Fig. 8 Temperature humidity index using maximum temperature at Ilela, Sokoto State, as reference point for Sahel ecoclimate zone. According to the information in Table 1

scientists (28.2%) that are dealing with livestock production in the various agroecological zones covered in this chapter. About 10% of the respondents were dealing in buying and selling of livestock and poultry. Half the number of the stakeholders interviewed about the interrelationships between climate change and livestock

Table 1 The temperature humidity index chart

Source Dr. Frank Wiersma (1990). Department of Agricultural Engineering, University of Arizona, Tucson. Downloaded from http://www.veterinaryhandbook.com.au

production preferred intensive management system of production. This can be explained because more than 40% of them are into commercial poultry production. Semi-intensive is a system of choice for ruminant animal production and it is preferred by 40.8% of the stakeholders interviewed in this chapter. Umunna et al. (2014) reported 56.3% of small ruminant producers rearing their stock through semiintensive system.

The distribution of respondents was also shown in Table 3. The largest proportion of respondents (32.5%) was from Derived Savannah zone of Nigeria. This is commensurate to the very large land area of this zone when compared with some of the other zones (Fig. 1). The least population of respondents (6.7%) was from the Sahel zone. The Sahel zone in Nigeria is found at the uppermost portion of the country. Suleiman (2017) described the Sahel region of Africa as a 3,860-kilometer

Table 3 Features of Savannah and Sudano-Sahelian zones being experienced by respondents

N is the number of respondents; values in parenthesis are the percentages of their respective frequencies

arc-like land mass lying to the immediate South of the Sahara Desert and stretching East-West across the breadth of the African continent. He further stated that the region stretches from Senegal on the Atlantic coast, through parts of Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, and Sudan to Eritrea on the Red Sea coast. Almost all the respondents (92%) were aware of the concept of climate change and its other attribute of global warming. Very high awareness level of climate change (88%) was reported by Adebayo and Oruonye (2012) among farmers in Northern Taraba State.

The features that best describe Savannah and Sudano-Sahelian zones of Nigeria were presented in Table 3. Seasonal variation in availability of natural forage was reported by all the respondents interviewed in Sahel and Sudan zones. About 95% of the respondents in Northern Guinea Savannah zones corroborated the scarcity or non-availability of natural forages during the dry seasons. Life-threatening high temperature during dry season was also reported as 63.8% by 326 respondents. Low temperatures during Harmattan period were reported as 95.5%, 80.7%, 39.3%, 22.5%, and 17.0% by respondents from Sahel, Sudan, Northern Guinea Savannah, Southern Guinea Savannah, and Derived Savannah, respectively.

The Harmattan is a season in the West African subcontinent starting from November to mid-March. The season is highly dependent on air pressure variability in the Mediterranean area. The Harmattan period is dust laden and also characterized by low temperatures (Schwanghart and Schutt 2008). In Sahelian parts of Africa, Aeolian dust transport is made possible by several wind systems (Jäkel 2004; Engelstaedter et al. 2006). One of the wind system is Harmattan (Schwanghart and Schutt 2008).

Low precipitation was also reported in Table 3. The proportions of the respondents that stated low precipitation as a prominent feature of the climate system were highest for Sahel (86.4%) and lowest for Derived Savannah (21.7%). This is an indication that there is more aridity in the Sahel and less in the Derived Savannah. Variability in Sahel rainfall is inextricably connected with the variability of the atmospheric circulation. Annual mean rainfall in the Sahel of Nigeria is less than 200 mm (Biasutti 2019). The author opined that across the zones, abundance or scarcity of rainfall and its distribution over the rainy season and the associated maximum temperature extremes determines the success or failure of farming system with its antecedent effects on livestock production. Desert encroachments were reported as a feature of Sahel (59.1%) and Sudan (45.6%) zones. Nigeria is faced with rapid desert encroachment affecting 15 states in the North. Most of the States covered in this chapter were described as desertification frontline States by Olagunju (2015).

#### Livestock Population in Nigeria

The total population of cattle in Nigeria was 20,407,607 in 2019 as against 20,231,589 in 2018. The distribution of cattle in States within Nigeria was illustrated through Fig. 9. Zamfara tops the list of States with 3,432,486 heads of cattle. The goat population in Nigeria was totaled at 46,757,458 in 2019. The highest population of goats (5,488,904) in 2019 was recorded in Katsina State (Fig. 10). Like as it is for cattle, Zamfara State tops the list of states for sheep production with the population size of 7,314,023 sheep (Fig. 11). These populations were reported in the Executive summary of Annual Performance Survey of National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services in Nigeria (NAERLS 2019).

Fig. 9 Cattle population in Nigeria. (Source: Federal Department of Animal Production and Husbandry Services, FMARD, Abuja (Reported by NAERLS 2019))

The total populations of donkeys in Nigeria were 978,402 and 979,380 for 2018 and 2019, respectively (NAERLS 2019). The beast of burden (donkey), a very resilient animal is found mostly in about 11 states of the country (all within Sahel, Sudan, and Northern Guinea Savannah Zone of Nigeria) with the highest population found in Zamfara State (331,641) in 2019. Other states with prominent populations of donkeys in 2019 were Sokoto (153,657), Borno (143,707), Kano (135,962), Kebbi (82,870), Jigawa (25,135), and Gombe (14,241). Some other states like Bauchi and Yobe had populations of donkeys that are less than 1,500.

Camel is another livestock used as beast of burden in Nigeria. The total populations of camels in the country were 279,956 and 280,235 for 2018 and 2019, respectively. Almost half of all the camel population in Nigeria was found in Kano State with 128,104 heads of camel. Other states with some populations of camel in 2019 were Sokoto (60,346), Kebbi (50,483), Jigawa (12,851), Katsina (9,581), Bauchi (9,475), Niger (3,270), and Yobe (501). It was of note that the rate of increase in population of camel and donkey is very negligible. These animals (camel and donkey) are reported to

Fig. 10 Goat population in Nigeria. (Source: Federal Department of Animal Production and Husbandry Services, FMARD, Abuja (Reported by NAERLS 2019))

be dwindling in number as there is increased consumption and less production, therefore ways of increasing the population of this animal should be scientifically exploited to avoid the extinction of the species (Nelson et al. 2015).

The possible factors responsible for large population of livestock in the Savannah and Sudano – Sahelian zones of Nigeria were presented in Table 3. On the top of the list of such factors is the abundance of grasses, legumes, and other fodder crops as indicated by 59.8% of the respondents. Large expanse of grassland was also said to be a prominent factor enabling large population of livestock on the semiarid zone of Sahel, Sudan, and the Guinea Savannahs. Other factors being reported in favor of the large population of livestock in the zones being considered in this chapter were low infestation of pathogens during wet and dry seasons with 33.7% and 32.2%, respectively. About 22% of the respondents stated that the flat plane topography in the zones might have contributed to the enormous populations of livestock being found in the zones. Lawal-Adebowale (2012) stated that the concentration of

Fig. 11 Sheep population in Nigeria. (Source: Federal Department of Animal Production and Husbandry Services, FMARD, Abuja (Reported by NAERLS 2019))

Nigeria's livestock-base in the northern region is most likely to have been influenced by the ecological condition of the region which is characterized by low rainfall duration, lighter sandy soils, and longer dry season. This submission was predicated by the fact that drier tropics or semi-arid regions are more favorable to the ruminants. However, concerted efforts need to be made at retaining the large population of livestock in these regions (Savannah and Sudano-Sahelian) because livestock production will be possibly limited in the future by climate variability as animal's water consumption is expected to increase. There will be more demand for agricultural lands because of increase due to need for 70% growth in production, and food security concern since about one-third of the global cereal harvest will be needed for livestock feed (Rojas-Downing et al. 2017).

Table 4 showed the stakeholders perception of the effect of changes on climatic elements of livestock production in the Savannah and Sudano-Sahelian zone of Nigeria. About 77% of all the respondents agreed to the fact that changes in climatic

Table 4 Stakeholders' perception of effect of changes in climatic elements on livestock production in the Savannah and Sudano-Sahelian zones of Nigeria

when their variations are in the extreme

N is the number of respondents; values in parenthesis are the percentages of their respective frequencies

elements affect livestock productivity. Kebede (2016) related the foremost reaction of animals under thermal weather as increase in respiration rate, rectal temperature, and heart rate. He further stated that the anticipated rise in temperature due to climate change is likely to aggravate the heat stress in livestock, adversely affecting their productive and reproductive performance and even death in extreme cases. The respondents observed that the climatic elements with most variations are atmospheric temperature (50.0%), rainfall (36.8%), and sunshine hour (5.8%). The climatic element with the least variation as being reported by the respondents is solar radiation (0.3%). Atmospheric temperature was also implicated by 69.9% of the respondents as a climatic element with the most debilitating effect on livestock when its variation is in the extreme. This was followed by relative humidity with 24.5% of the respondents stating that its effect can really affect livestock productivity.

#### Adaptive Measures Against the Effect of Climate Change on Livestock Production

Useable adaptive measures toward reducing the effects of climate change on livestock production are presented in Table 5. About 55% of the respondents agreed that the use of adaptive measures in alleviating the effect of climate change on livestock is capable of reducing its debilitating effect on livestock. The rest of the respondents, about 45%, were either neutral or disagreed with the fact that adaptive measures can mitigate the effect of climate change. It will be necessary to educate those that disagree on this very important fact. To guide the evolution of livestock production systems under the increase of temperature and extreme events, better information is needed regarding biophysical and social vulnerability, and this must be integrated with agriculture and livestock components (Nardone et al. 2010). The specific adaptive measures used by livestock farmers in the study locations are shown in Table 5 as well. At the top of the adaptive features of choice by respondents is provision of housing facilities for animals which was indicated by about 60% of the respondents. Provision of abundant water and supplements feeding were also indicated as adaptive measures by 45.4% and 44.2% of the respondents, respectively. Planting of tress to provide shades for livestock was of great interest because of the sustainable effect of this adaptive measure to livestock production. Trees are known to absorb carbon dioxide produced by man and animals that is apart from their primary function of shades as intended by livestock farmers. Development of superabsorbent fake leaves was proposed by scientists (Vince 2012) as a means of modulating the global temperature. This method was proposed as capable of removal of greenhouse gas from the atmosphere. The benefits of the introduction of artificial plants will be centered on geoengineering the planet which will be beyond its cooling effects.

Timely control of internal and external parasites was a choice of adaptive measure by a third of the respondents (31.3%). This is expected to eliminate the stress on health status of the animals which will go a long way in stabilizing the internal physiological equilibrium of the animals. If properly done, the animals will have enough energy to

Table 5 Useable adaptive measures toward reducing the effect of climate change on livestock production in Savannah and Sudano-Sahelian zones of Nigeria

Table 5 (continued)

N is the number of respondents; values in parenthesis are the percentages of their respective frequencies

combat stress from the environment. Storage of excess feed, especially during harvest, was stated as an adaptive measure by 32.5% of the respondents. This adaptive measure can be linked with another one that was also stated by the stakeholders, storage of crop residues obtainable during harvest (26.4%). These two measures are some of the important components of crop-livestock integration systems as discussed by Iyiola-Tunji et al. (2015). Feeding livestock with crop residues in a well-planned basis on the nutrient requirements and biomass needs of these animals will ensure adequate usage of the crop residues. Establishment of ranch, irrigation of pasture during dry season, making of multi-nutrient blocks, feeding of livestock with multi-nutrient blocks and seasonal migration of animals were of the other adaptive measures being carried out to combat the effect of climate change as reported by substantial proportion of the respondents. Integrating livestock and crop production will serve as a form of conservation, which will enable shifting from the traditional systems which is focused exclusively on livestock or crop to a new approach which sustainably combines both. Agroforestry (establishing trees alongside crops and pastures in a mix) as a land management approach can help maintain the balance between agricultural production, environmental protection, and carbon sequestration to offset emissions from the sector. Agroforestry may increase productivity and improve quality of air, soil, and water, biodiversity, pests and diseases, and improves nutrient cycling (Jose 2009; Smith et al. 2012).

#### Contribution of Livestock Production Activities Toward Climate Change

Table 6 showed the contribution of livestock production activities toward climate change. A lot of the stakeholders interviewed (62.3%) were aware of the

Table 6 Contribution of livestock production activities toward climate change

N is the number of respondents; values in parenthesis are the percentages of their respective frequencies

contribution of livestock production to climate change. Generations of substantial proportions of global greenhouse gases that are very bad for the environment were on the knowledge of more than half of the respondents (53.4%). Just about the third (35%) of the respondents were aware that livestock and their by-products account for several million tons of carbon dioxide production per year. Very large proportions (73.6%) of respondents were aware that extensive system of livestock production plays a critical role in land degradation, climate change, water, and biodiversity loss. About 90% of the respondents however believed that economic, social, health, and environment perspectives are critical to solving the problems of the contributions of livestock production to climate change and global warning. In 2006, an FAO publication entitled "Livestock's long shadow – Environmental issues and options" indicated that the influence of livestock on the environment was much greater than it was considered. This provided detailed perspectives on the impact of livestock on water, biodiversity, and climate change. The issue on climate change and 18% estimated contribution of livestock to overall GHG emissions is the concern that attracted the most attention. The FAO (2006) estimated 18% anthropogenic GHG emissions from livestock industry is disapproved by Goodland and Anhang (2009) who noted that the figure under-tallies emissions from certain production activities, underestimates demand, and absolutely omits some categories of emissions. They estimated that livestock production is contributing about 51% of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Goodland and Anhang (2009) revealed that CO2 from livestock respiration was ignored as a source of the GHGs from the FAO study (2006). Both manure and enteric fermentation contribute some 80% of methane emissions from agricultural activities and about 30–40% of the overall anthropogenic methane emissions (FAO 2006). The 62–89% of greenhouse emission recorded in this chapter was similar to the findings of FAO (2006). Similarly, there is an increasing awareness within the policy and research communities that fast growth in consumption and production of livestock commodities is contributing to variety of environmental problems. The main notable issue is livestock's significant contribution to anthropogenic emissions. Majority of the revenue is generated by pigs, chickens, sheep, goats, beef, and dairy cattle. These five species of livestock generate 92% of the overall revenue from livestock in Africa. In most rural communities, livestock is the only property of the poor, but it is highly susceptible to climate changes and extremes (Easterling and Aggarwal 2007; FAO 2007; Calvasa et al. 2009). The influence of climate change is anticipated to increase the susceptibility of livestock industry and reinforce current factors that are having impact on livestock farming systems (Gill and Smith 2008). The overall GHG emissions from livestock supply chains are approximately 7.1 gigatons CO2-equivalent annually for the 2005 reference point forming about 14.5 % of all emissions induced by humans (IPCC 2007a). About 44 % of the livestock industry emissions are in the form of CH4. Nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide represent 29% and 27%, respectively. Livestock supply chains emit 9.2 gigatons CO2-eq of CO2 annually or 5% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (IPCC 2007b). According to IPCC (2007b), 44% of anthropogenic CH4 emissions or 3.1 gigatons CO2-eq of CH4 every year and 53% of anthropogenic N2O emissions or 2 gigatons CO2-eq of N2O are produced annually. Similar results were observed in this chapter, which reported that livestock products account for 88–93% (Table 6) of the carbon dioxide production per year.

#### Adaptive Measures Toward Mitigation of Effect of Climate Change on Livestock

An adaptation such as the modification of production and management systems involves diversification of livestock animals and crops, integration of livestock systems with forestry and crop production, and changing the timing and locations of farm operations (IFAD 2010). Diversification of livestock and crop varieties can increase drought and heat wave tolerance, and may increase livestock production when animals are exposed to temperature and precipitation stresses. In addition, this diversity of crops and livestock animals is effective in fighting against climate change-related diseases and pest outbreaks (Kurukulasuriya and Rosenthal 2003; Batima et al. 2005; IFAD 2010). Changes in breeding strategies can help animals increase their tolerance to heat stress and diseases and improve their reproduction and growth development (Rowlinson et al. 2008; Henry et al. 2012). Adjusting animal diets can also be used as a mitigation measure, by changing the volume and composition of manure. GHG emissions can be reduced by balancing dietary proteins and feed supplements. If protein intake is reduced, the nitrogen excreted by animals can also be reduced. Supplements such as tannins are also known to have the potential to reduce emissions. Tannins are able to displace the nitrogen excretion from urine to feces to produce an overall reduction in emissions (Hess et al. 2006; Dickie et al. 2014). Some of the adaptable technologies for reducing the effect of livestock production activities on climate change and vice versa are also presented in Table 7 and discussions on each of them are presented below.

#### Proper Livestock Health Management and Welfare

On the top of the list of technologies as dictated by the respondents (63.2%) is proper livestock health management and welfare. Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may seem like extra work that can hurt business, but in reality, best management practices for reducing GHG emissions can be economical (Lindgren 2019). Animals that are maintained in optimum health conditions and given adequate welfare will have improved production efficiency and reduction of methane production from digestion of feeds.

#### Adequate Waste Management and Utilization

Almost equally important technology is adequate waste management and utilization as proposed by 59.2% of the respondents. The major contribution to greenhouse gas emissions is methane (CH4) from ruminant animals through belching when the animals digest their feeds (Plate I). The other sources of the deleterious gases are from fecal waste excretion and storage. Adequate waste management and utilization is capable of reducing the quantity of the greenhouse gases

Table 7 Adaptable technologies for reducing the effect of livestock production activities on climate change

N is the number of respondents; values in parenthesis are the percentages of their respective frequencies

Plate I Greenhouse gas emissions from cattle production. (Source: Lindgren (2019))

emissions. Livestock farmers in the Sahel, Sudan, and the Guinea Savannah zones of Nigeria use the fecal waste as organic fertilizers for crop production. There were occasions where the litter materials from poultry production are fed to cattle (Lamidi 2005).

#### Crop-Livestock Integration Systems

A lot of the effect of livestock production on climate change can be eliminated if the farmers can engage in crop-livestock integration systems. About half of the respondents (50.3%) agreed to this fact. Ickowicz et al. (2012) presented three variants of CLIS in

Fig. 12 Production efficiencies using management that can reduce GHG emissions beginning with selective breeding of a genotype for a particular system. (Adapted from Bell et al. (2012); modified by Iyiola-Tunji, A.O.) © 2012 Bell MJ,. Eckard RJ, Pryce JE. Published in [short citation] under CC BY 3.0 license. Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/50395

arid and semiarid areas: (i) livestock only grazing systems, (ii) rainfed mixed croplivestock systems, and (iii) irrigated mixed crop-livestock systems. CLIS combine cereal crops (mainly millet, cowpea, sorghum, cotton and groundnut) and majorly ruminant animal production activities in different proportions. Crop-livestock integration systems (CLIS) enable recycling of products and wastes between crop production and livestock production. These methods are capable of increasing feed resources availability during the dry season and also replenish the soil for crop production through the use of fecal wastes from livestock. The major engagement of agropastoralists in Nigeria involves CLIS in a way though biomass inputs and outputs recycling are not scientifically calculated by the farmers (Iyiola-Tunji et al. 2017).

#### Breeding for More Productive Animals

Breeding for more productive animals was suggested by 50% of the respondents as an adaptive measure for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Selective breeding that is aimed at improving production efficiencies had been reported to result into increase productivity and gross efficiency by optimize the cost of production and reduce the number of animals that are needed to produce the same quantity of products (Bell et al. 2012). Reports from van de Haar and St. Pierr (2006) and Chagunda et al. (2009) related that more energy-efficient animals produce less waste in the form of methane and nitrogen excretion per unit product. The path toward reduced emission of greenhouse gases through selective breeding is depicted in Fig. 12. Animals that are selectively bred to utilize low inputs and give high outputs are expected to produce milk and meat (as the case may be) efficiently. The quantity of GHG emissions will be reduced once the number of animals put into productive is reduced.

#### Use of Methane-Reducing Feed Additives

The use of methane reducing feed additives was stated by 26.4% of the respondents as being capable of reducing the effect of livestock production activities on GHG emissions. Kataria (2015) observed that the practice of using feed additives to mitigate enteric methane production is more prominent in developed countries of the world where ruminant livestock are kept in well-managed production systems and generally fed diets that are very high in digestibility and nutrients. The results of this practice according to the author are an efficient production (milk or meat) relative to the amount of methane emitted. Klop (2016) expressed the advantage of using feed additives to mitigate GHG emissions as they are supplied in such amounts that the basal diet composition will not be largely affected by the feed additives (Klop 2016). Methane-reducing feed additives and supplements inhibit methanogens in the rumen, and subsequently reduce enteric methane emissions (Curnow 2019). Methane-reducing feed additives and supplements can be synthetic chemicals, natural supplements and compounds, such as tannins, and seaweed fats and oils (Curnow 2019). van Zijderveld et al. (2010) had experimented with lauric acid, myristic acid, linseed oil, and calcium fumarate as additives and obtained favorable results in the reduction of GHG emissions. Sunflower oil and monensin offer the greatest reductions in methane without substantial reductions in diet digestibility (Beauchemin and McGinn 2006). It is of note that the practice of using feed additives as an adaptive measure to reduce GHG emissions in developing countries like Nigeria is almost nonexistent.

#### Ranching

To further reduce livestock's greenhouse gas emissions while continuing to provide meat for a growing world population, beef cattle ranchers are proactively implementing methane-reducing methods to manage manure, improve soil health, and enhance herd efficiency. Ranching will enable farmers to consciously engage in practices that are capable of mitigating the effect of climate change on their livestock and also make attempt at GHG emissions from their livestock.

#### Pathway of Responses

The dual pathways of responses between climate change and livestock production activities are depicted in Fig. 13. Activities from livestock have very high tendencies to impact negatively on the environment and eventually causing unfavorable variability of climate and its elements, which is indicated by the blue big (fat) arrow that goes away from livestock to the environment and climate. The major component of the activities of livestock that is known to cause injury to the environment as depicted in Fig. 13 is the production of greenhouse gases (shown in an orange box on the right-hand side of the pathway). From the respondents in this study, some adaptive measures were stated as having controlling and mitigating effect at reducing the effect of activities of livestock on the climate and the environment. When these measures such as planting of trees to absorb CO2, adequate waste management and utilization, feeding of livestock with methane reducing feed additives, and breeding of animals with faster growth rate are effectively deployed, the destruction of the environment will be reduced. Key breeding traits associated with climate change

Fig. 13 Dual pathways of responses between climate and livestock

resilience and adaptation include thermal tolerance, low quality feed, high survival rate, disease resistance, good body condition, and animal morphology (Hoffmann 2008; Oseni and Bebe 2008). In general, developing countries have a weak capacity for high-tech breeding programs toward livestock improvement (IFAD 2002). Therefore, programs based on controlled mating methods are likely to be more appropriate. These programs usually do not produce immediate improvements. Improvements are usually not seen for at least one growing season, so a livestock producer must be able to incorporate long-term planning into production management strategies. Such measures could include:

The environment and climate on the other side of the dual pathway is also known to induce stress on livestock. The respondents in this chapter stated that the components of the pathway that are in yellow boxes are capable of limiting the stress caused by high variations of climatic elements. The concept of crop-livestock integration system is advocated in this chapter as beneficial to livestock and environment in the short and long run.

#### Predicting Climatic Conditions Using Machine Learning Approach

The ability to forecast climatic conditions is essential for proper planning in livestock production. Machine learning (ML) approach leverages on past data to predict future events. Three (3) ML model were built to predict the monthly minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and relatively respectively based on information from the previous 11 months.

The methodology adopted is to treat each prediction task as a supervised learning problem. This involves transforming the time series data (Fig. 14) into a featuretarget dataset using auto regressive (AR) technique.

The parameter (temp\_min or temp\_max or relative humidity) to be predicted is set as the target (dependent) variable and in each case be defined by

$$T\min\left(t\right)|T\max\left(t\right)|RH(t) = f[T\min\left(t-n\right), T\max\left(t-n\right), RH(t-n)]\qquad(1)$$

t is the prediction date.

t-n denotes the time lags, n is an integer between 1 and 11

Tmin(t), Tmax(t), RH(t) are temperatures and relative humidity to be predicted.

Tmin(t-n), Tmax(t-n), and RH(t-n) are minimum, maximum temperatures, and relative humidity, respectively, each time lag.

The transformation resulted in a dataset with 445 samples, each with 34 new features. In order to build an ML model, the samples were divided into 361 train

Fig. 14 Time Series of Temperature and Relative Humidity (1982–2019)

(samples from 1982 to 2012) and 84 validations (samples from 2013 to 2019) sets. The Ensemble machine learning methods which are a stack of multiple learning algorithms were used to train our model. The choice of ensemble algorithm is to obtain better predictive performance than could be obtained from any of the constituent learning algorithms. For the three models that were built, the predictive accuracy measured by the R2 for minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity are 0.9353, 0.8772, and 0.9569 respectively. The plots of the actual prediction and the ground truth for minimum and maximum temperatures and relative humidity are shown in Figs. 15, 16, and 17, respectively.

The usefulness of the model developed can be successfully used to predict minimum and maximum temperature as well as relative humidity of Ilela, Sokoto State (representative of Sahel ecoclimate zone). If these predictions are done appropriately, livestock farmers can use the predicted values to calculate temperature humidity index which is indication of level of stress to livestock. Farmers can in essence adjust their management practices accordingly to ensure adequate adaptation in reducing the anticipated stress that may come to their farm animals.

Fig. 15 Plot of predicted and actual values for minimum temperature for Sahel

Fig. 16 Plot of predicted and actual values for maximum temperature for Sahel

Fig. 17 Plot of predicted and actual values for relative humidity for Sahel

#### Conclusion and Recommendations

Large proportions of livestock stakeholders in Nigeria are aware of the effect of climate change on livestock production as well as the contributions of livestock production activities to climate change through GHG emissions. About 55% of the respondents agreed that the use of adaptive measures in alleviating the effect of climate change on livestock is capable of reducing its debilitating effect on livestock. The rest of the respondents, about 45%, were either neutral or disagreed with the fact that adaptive measures can mitigate the effect of climate change. It will be necessary to educate those that disagree on this very important fact. About 90% of the respondents however believed that economic, social, health, and environment perspectives are critical to solving the problems of the contributions of livestock production to climate change and global warning. Based on the predictive model developed for temperature and relative humidity in a sample location (Ilela) using Machine Learning in this chapter, there is need for development of a web or standalone application that will be useable by Nigerian farmers, meteorological agencies, and extension organizations as climate fluctuation early warning system. Development of this predictive model needs to be expanded and made functional.

#### References

among rural farm families at adopted villages of National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services. J Agric Ext 19(2):46–58

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# Corona Virus, Climate Change, and Food Security 30

## Nkiru Theresa Meludu and Toyin Abolade

## Contents

N. T. Meludu (\*) · T. Abolade

This chapter was previously published non-open access with exclusive rights reserved by the Publisher. It has been changed retrospectively to open access under a CC BY 4.0 license and the copyright holder is "The Author(s)". For further details, please see the license information at the end of the chapter.

Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension Faculty of Agriculture, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria e-mail<EMAIL_ADDRESS>
#### Abstract

Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) is a current pandemic causing lockdown of cities and countries. The nature of this disease and the global cases are still considered as deadly all over the world. Analogous was drawn between the current COVID-19 pandemic and some of the other contemporary crises of the world as regards to climate change in addition to food shortage. Also, Survey Monkey instrument was used to generate emperical evidences from 514 respondents on covid-19 awareness and the effect on food security. Effects of diseases on climate change, such as the increasing frequency and strength of extreme weather events or the expanding range and spread of diseases was considered. Then, the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change was investigated. Prior to the pandemic, climate change already had adverse effects on agriculture and vice versa, which led to food insecurity. The need for fruits as well as leafy and root vegetables in peri-urban and urban areas is increasing, as well as the food shortage. A drop in agricultural production will be expected in the future if the pandemic continues for a few more months. The perception and adherence to the preventive measures for this pandemic were determined to reduce its spread and lessen its effect on agricultural production as well as to improve food security.

#### Keywords

Covid-19 · Climate outcomes · Consequences · Agriculture · Food insecurity

#### Introduction

A total of 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) have been set to transform our world, namely: no poverty, zero hunger, good health and well-being, quality education, gender equality, clean water and sanitation, affordable and clean energy, decent work and economic growth, industry, innovation and infrastucture, reduced inequality, sustainable cities and communities, responsible consumption and production, climate action, life below water, life on land, peace and justice strong institutions, partinership to achieve the goals (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) 2015).

SDGs are the organized principles for addressing environmental improvement objectives and sustaining the capacity of the usual structure to offer natural resources, flora and fauna services upon which the economy and humanity depends is crucial.

This chapter identified some of the issues influencing climate change and the effect of climate change on food security. It also discussed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is the current pandemic causing lockdown of the entire economy due to its global occurrence (World Health Organisation (WHO) 2020). Some emperical evidences were determined with the use of "Suervey Monkey" Instrument that generated responses from respondents from different parts different of Nigeria at the peak of the pandemic. This chapter highlighted the pandemic nature of COVID-19 and other hidden evidences in litreature. Essentially, some of the health constraints on climate change include the increasing occurrence of extreme weather events and the growing rate and spread of illnesses, such as malaria.

COVID-19, a persistent respiratory disease caused by corona virus is transmitted chiefly by contact with human and infected surfaces and the individual shows symptom of fever, cough, and shortness of breath and may advance to pneumonia, respiratory failure and death.

Furthermore, the relationship between pandemic and climate change was investigated, although climate change already had adverse effects on agricultural production, which led to food insecurity, especially in under developed countries. It is expected that agricultural production will drop in the subsequent years if COVID-19 pandemic persists for more months. The vulnerable groups include small-scale farmers, migrants, labourers/workers, nomads, and fisher folks who have been prevented from working on their farms and from taking care of their animals/ fisheries will fell the effect. These groups also face difficulty in obtaining access to proper marketplaces to retail their produces and processed goods as a result of increased food prices and inadequate purchasing resources. Informal laborers are also affected leading to hike in labor cost and income losses because of delayed harvesting of the produce.

#### Conceptualizing the Pandemic Nature of Coronavirus

COVID-19 could be described as a respiration set of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (World Health Organization (2020). This virus spreads primarily between people during close contact, often through small drops of discharge from the nostrils once an infested individual sneezes or coughs into the air. The droplets usually drop to the ground/surfaces without being suspended in the air moving 2-m distances (Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) 2020). People may contract the virus by touching polluted surfaces and then touching their faces (mouth, nose, and eyes). The first case of COVID-19 occurred in December 2019 in Wuhan, China's Hubei Province. Then, it subsequently spread globally, which resulted in the ongoing 2019–2020 coronavirus pandemic (Hui et al. 2020; World Health Organization (WHO) 2020). COVID-19 has an incubation period of usually 2–14 days for people who develop symptoms; however, some people who are infected do not develop any form of symptoms and are thus called asymptomatic. While it is easy to isolate and treat infected people that develop symptoms, the asymptomatic patients cannot be easily identified, isolated, and treated, thus posing a great risk of spreading of the virus. This brings fear to the people and also has crippled many economies worldwide, affecting agricultural production, thus causing food scarcity, hunger, and food insecurity. Interestingly, researchers worldwide are working tirelessly to develop vaccines/drugs and treatment regimes of the disease.

#### Symptoms Associated with COVID-19 (NCDC and Hopkins University 2020; WHO 2020)

10. Sore throat – This is caused by a virus-related contamination, such as cold or influenza. It is also very important that symptoms are appropriately observed.

#### Preventive Measures of COVID-19

There are preventive measures recommended to prevent COVID-19 infection, such as self-isolation when feeling sick; avoiding busy spaces; practicing good hygiene; proper handwashing; using alcohol-based sanitizers; maintaining social and physical distancing from others, especially those with symptoms; covering mouth while coughing and sneezing with tissues, which should be thrown properly in a closed dustbin; and preventing from touching the face with unwashed hands. Furthermore, mask should be used outdoor, where additional non-pharmaceutical techniques cannot be adhered, to reduce the rate of transmission (NCDC 2020; WHO 2020).

#### Strategies Implemented by the Government Globally to Control and Prevent the Spread of COVID-19

However, some of the measures implemented to prevent the spread of the virus, such as fumigation of public spaces with chemicals and the use of personal protective equipment (PPE), which are not properly disposed, can lead to land, water, and air pollution, which will later negatively affect the environment, possibly resulting in environmental challenges and food insecurity and these could be worst in lessdeveloped countries.

#### Diagnosis of COVID-19

The seriousness of the pandemic differs from person to person. COVID-19 infection could show minor sypmtoms, such as ordinary flue or common cold, or no symptoms at all. As the infection progresses, the symptoms change based on gender, generational, and the type of underlying illness. People with mild symptoms of COVID-19 infection usually get better in 14 days or less, although it takes 21 to 30 days to achieve full recovery (NCDC 2020; WHO 2020). Older people or those with underlying diseases, such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and cancers of any type, are susceptible to this infection (NCDC 2020), while children experience less severe symptoms. The mortality rate of adults less than 50 years who were infected with COVID-19 is less than 0.5%. Conversely, those older than 70 years had the highest mortality rate from the disease. The major problems related with COVID-19 include sepsis, excessive clotting, and damage to the vital organs in the body. Up to 30% of the individuals infected with COVID-19 exhibited elevated liver enzymes, known as transaminases (Sanders et al. 2020), resulting in organ failiure and eventually death.

#### Transformation of Situations Causing Typical Climate Change

Climate change is described as variation on usual climate conditions of an area across periods due to natural circumstances or artificial activities causing degradation of the environment (Nwosu 2012). Climate change is considered as a long-term shift in the average weather situation of a region, such as its typical temperature, rainfall, and wind patterns. This variation in weather indicates that the consequences estimated in a lot of countries will vary over the coming decades.

Weather variations are global phenomenon of climate transformation characterized through fluctuations observed on weather of the planet regarding temperature and precipitation, which are especially instigated through human activities (Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) 2002). The balancing of the weather condition to sustain ecosystems is under threat, as well as the future of humanity and the steadiness of the world economy.

In other words, climate change refers to the deviation in the geometric distribution of the average weather circumstances over a prolonged period of time. Climate change induces an increase in the occurrence of extreme weather events. The characteristics of weather variation poses risks to agricultural sustainability and results in food shortage, high level of poverty, and low level of human and physical development. Uninterestingly, weather variations negatively affect human health, water resources, land use, coastal infrastructure, and the environment (International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) 2010), particularly in developing countries, such as Nigeria, where irrigation is not often practiced, as well as in regions that experience heavy rainfall, thus causing extreme flooding and leaching.

Thus, the apprehension of weather variation cannot be overemphasized which is based on the biggest problem facing the world, affecting everything and everyone, due to the fact that it plays an important environmental influence on ecosystem. Climate change affects the ecosystems in numerous ways, and intermingles with poor growth. The cumulative impacts could lead to intense environmental variations (United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) 2009). The severity and frequency of diseases are often related with unfavorable weather conditions and unpredicted health concerns spreading in regions where they have not occurred before.

The consequences of weather variation on the availability, accessibility and stability of food supplies can cause major alterations in people's diet choices, which in turn have consequences on the health of the households and low recovery rate from the pandemic.

Nelson et al. (2018) has reported that climate change is expected to alter global nutrient availability, thereby exerting aftermath effects on malnutrition. The increasing CO2 levels are also expected to reduce the levels of proteins, iron, zinc, and vitamins B1, B2, B5, and B9 in staple foods and docosahexaenoic acid content of fish, which will cause malnutrition to millions of people worldwide after the COVID-19 pandemic (Colombo et al. 2019). COVID-19 pandemic and devastating consequences, and how to stop its spread have become the focus of the world. The greenhouse gases (GHGs) that significantly contribute to climate change, include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ammonia, and other trace gases (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007). The other factors causing weather variations are natural causes and human activities. Human activities, such as fumigation and disinfection of public places and improper disposal of used PPEs during the COVID-19 pandemic, also immensely contribute to climate change. The scorching of fossil fuels and the conversion of land for forestry to other uses, including agriculture, are also examples of human activities. Conversely, the natural causes of climate change include variations in ocean currents and atmospheric circulation.

#### Effects of Weather Variation on the Environment and Agriculture in Nigeria

The effects of weather variation on food production differ from one country to another which is dependent on the current climate condition affecting agricultural productivity differently. Nigeria, like all the other countries in the sub-Saharan Africa, is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change. Climate change variations from 1960 and 1999 in parts of Nigeria presented visible incidences of deficiency for a cumulative period of approximately 8–18 years in some parts of Nigeria (Obioha 2009; Muhammed et al. 2011). Uncertainties about the farming season due to the changes in rainfall pattern resulted in crop failure, thus leading to food shortages because of poor harvests. An increase in rainfall is also favorable for the outbreak of pests and crop diseases, which is detrimental to crop production. Specifically, pests and crop diseases are visible in response to weather variation, which hypothetically threaten livestock in the drier northern states of Nigeria (Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) 2002). Small-scale farmers face the problem of flooding, which destroys the infrastructure used to store or transport food from production areas to markets, thereby discouraging the farmers to produce more food (Aluko et al. 2008). Global warming also negatively affects the seafood and aquatic lives that are important to humans. In addition, climate change affects not only food security but also the livelihood of the people, thus obstructing the advancement of many developing and underdeveloped countries. It is quite obvious that the most serious challenge to agricultural production and mankind worldwide, especially in Africa, is climate change.

#### Effects of Climate Change on Food Security

African countries that rely solely on natural resources and rainfed agriculture are more vulnerable to the risks of climate change (IFAD 2010). The consequences of climate change effects are irreversible, potentially disastrous to the entire nation, most especially the developing and underdeveloped nations. For example, it was estimated that by 2020, agricultural production would decline by 50% in some countries with rainfed agriculture (Nanki et al. 2010), and this will be worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2008 analyzed that a temperature increase of 2.5 °C would result in a loss of 1.0–1.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in developed countries and 2–9% in developing countries. Generally, climate change causes floods, droughts, or tropical storms, which can take a major toll on a country's economy if a significant part of economic activity is sensitive to the weather and climate. Therefore, if the current trend of GHG emissions continues, the per capita GDP loss by 2022 will be as much as 3–35% (Tamirisa 2008; Harris et al. 2017). Africa is a good example of the influence of climate variability on a developing country's economy (USAID 2010; Zenebe et al. 2011). Boko et al. (2007) and IFAD (2010) reported that the rainfed agriculture and pastoral communities in Africa are dependent on annual rain and were identified to be more susceptible to the effects of climate change. Climate change have negative impacts on food production, especially livestock, in terms of CO2 and methane emissions. Livestock uses about 32% of arable land, and cattle rearing causes up to 70% of land degradation and pollution. Therefore, if forests are lost, it will be difficult to fight climate change (Meludu 2019).  Another scenario is that 1 ha of land for beef production will feed one person, the same hectare for rice production will feed 19 persons, and the same hectare for potato production will feed 22 persons. This competition is too high to achieve food security and eradicate poverty due to degradation and pollution.

#### Concepts of Food Security

Food security exists at all periods with individuals having financial access to necessary, harmless, and nutritious food that provides adequate requirement for sustainable life expectancy (FAO 2002; Meludu 2009; Meludu and Ewebiyi 2010). Food security and food insecurity are considered to be dynamics that depend solely on causes of not having enough food and the management. However, the partial and total lockdown implemented worldwide due to the COVID-19 pandemic has affected numerous economic activities, such as food distribution, restaurants, hospitality industries, and transportation activities. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries closed their borders, preventing the free flow of goods in to different countries and even within the cities. This restriction caused constraints in food distribution and food hoarding, which posed great challenges to food security. This is especially to the vulnerable population including; aged people (senior citizens), children, pregnant women and those with immune-compromised status. Due to the pandemic, food prices have increased worldwide; staple foods such as wheat, garri, rice and beans, tubers, meats, fruits, and vegetables became expensive. Adequate and effective support to encourage unhindered transportation of food items from source locations to various destinations, home deliveries became necessary to reduce human interactions and prevent the possibility of getting infected. When food security is compromised, the consequence is food insecurity.

Food accessibility is affected by the production, distribution, and stability of food (Fig. 1). Food accessibility refers to the easy access to food that is essential to combat hunger and overcome food insecurity. An individual or household's access to food can be influenced by their income and health conditions. Consumers must be able to have the purchasing power in order to have access to food. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the rate of unemployment has increased, which resulted in food insecurity. Individuals need to eat sufficiently to develop strong immunity against the virus and to be physically healthy to be able to digest and utilize the nutrients in the food consumed. Food utilization can also be influenced by nutritional values, health status of an individual, safety of the food, and how it is prepared before consumption. Food will be well utilized when people strictly adhere to the important safety precautions against COVID-19. Food stability is guaranteed if the governments worldwide make adequate preparations to reduce the rate of

postharvest losses to make food available during this pandemic so that people will remain healthy and safe.

Therefore, to achieve all the highlighted dimensions of food insecurity, the pandemic should be dealt with accordingly to reduce its impacts on climate change so as to avoid food shortage. If adequately managed, the resultant effects will reduce the occurrence of food insecurity globally.

#### Food Insecurity

Food insecurity could be considered as deficiency in access to adequate food amount in terms of quality and quantity. Inadequate diet and reduced immune system amplify vulnerability to diseases (Meludu 2011). Low diet is correlated with the increasing development of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) (Velmurugan et al. 2017).

Climate change-related incidents recurring everyday requires immediate action (Solly 2019). Therefore, a scientific innovation strategy for mitigating the impacts of climate chnage on agricultural systems is important. Increased food traceability aimed at preventing food loss due to contamination issues, prediction of extreme events is very germain at this period of pendemic (Dhaliwal and Williams 2019; Fabregas et al. 2018; Nkurunziza et al. 2019).

Food contamination caused by climate change also threatens the achievement of the SDGs, namely SDG 2 (zero hunger), SDG 3 (good health and well-being), SDG 8 (decent work and economic growth), SDG 12 (responsible consumption and production), and SDG 13 (climate action) and indirect effect on the other SDGs. Labor scarcities impacted producers, processors, traders, and distribution companies in food distribution chains necessitate workforces to be in near vicinity. The United Nations World Food Programme (UNWFP) predicted that approximately 265 million people will experience increased food insecurity by the end of 2020.

Food insecurity can be illustrated by durations such as; chronic food insecurity is a longstanding food scarcity. Temporary food insecurity is a momentary circumstance of food insecurity where a populace agonizes from food insecurity transition at the time there is an unexpected drop in the capability to produce food for adequate nutritional status and lastly, Seasonal food insecurity is a condition that could happen from time to time.

Food insecurity "hot spots" according to the UNWFP include the following:

#### Effects of the Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic and Climate Change on Food Security

The COVID-19 pandemic has negative effects on climate change which lead to food insecurity. The process of fumigating public places (markets, churches, parking areas, offices, and the entire environment) pollutes the air which eventually affects the weather condition (Fig. 2).

COVID-19 has caused a dramatic loss of human lives worldwide. It also presented an unprecedented challenge with deep social and economic consequences, including food insecurity and malnutrition. An impact on the crusade of labor force and the distribution of inputs has also caused unacceptable constraint to food production. However, agriculture and food-related logistic services was considered to be among the important concerns during the COVID-19 pandemic; thus, food production and distribution should not be compromised.

Fig. 2 Conceptual framework of the interface between COVID-19, climate change, and food security

The government in every country adopted the idea of lockdown as part of the precautionary measures to stop the spread of COVID-19 among its citizens. On the contrary, this lockdown resulted in food shortage in that farmers, marketers, processors, and other stakeholders in the value/supply chain were unable to carry out their enterprise characteristics and the global food system has been destroyed.

#### Empirical Evidences Obtained Through Online Survey on COVID-19 Awareness and the Effect on Food Security

This study used SurveyMonkey (Monkey Survey 2020) to obtain answers to selected questions that were raised with regard to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on farming and food security. This study included 514 agricultural stakeholders as participants, of which 55.6% are male and 44.4% are female. It is so disappointing to note that many of these participants (45%) were not taking COVID-19 very seriously, and some were even unsure whether this disease is real or not. They considered it as politicians or rich man disease. This resulted in nonadherence to the safety measures implemented by the government, thereby causing the rapid spread of the disease. About 60% of the respondents learned of this pandemic through radio, television, and Internet, 15% from healthcare workers, 15% from family members, 5% from market places, and 5% from workplaces. This implies that many farmers did not have access to information and communications technologies (Fig. 3) or regular power supply. Thus, only a few people who had sufficient information were able to take adequate measures. This will cause many people to contract the virus, thereby leading to death and affecting agricultural activities which causes food insecurity.

Fig. 3 Channel of information on the COVID-19 pandemic

Fig. 4 Farmers' access to palliatives

Fig. 5 Effect of COVID-19 on access to money, farm, and office work

During the period of the lockdown to contain COVID-19, when all economic activities were put on hold, many industries could not pay the salaries of their workers; thus, there was either a pay cut or staff layoff. Due to this, the purchasing power was affected and food accessibility became difficult to achieve. Majority (75%) of the respondents disagreed with the way the government handled the palliative distribution as not everyone was given, especially the farmers, whereas less than average (25%) agreed (Fig. 4).

Farmers that were supposed to be on the farm working were asked to stay home as one of the measures to prevent them from contracting the disease. Almost all (90%) the farmers adhered to this, and 85% did not have access to money (Fig. 5). Most crop and livestock farmers in the developing countries rely solely on rainfed agriculture, whereas only few depend on irrigation. Unfortunately, the peak of COVID-19 occurred at the beginning of the rainy season, which is in April. The farmers were unable to perform their seasonal farming activities. Eventually, this will result in food shortage and food insecurity. Transport route blockage hinders the

Fig. 6 Distribution of the shortage of food, skipping of meals, food gift, spoilage of agricultural produce, and low demand for food

distribution of fresh goods; thus, high levels of postharvest loss and waste may be experienced.

Marketers play significant roles in ensuring adequate distribution of food products. During the pandemic, marketers were also asked to stay home for a period of weeks or months, depending on the number of index cases recorded in the region. During this period, marketing activities were disrupted as marketers could not buy or sell food as expected. Moreover, there were no available buses/trucks to transport goods and services; interstate borders were also closed. During this, food accessibility was a major challenge for households, thus, eventually leading to food insecurity. Processors are another category of people involve in food distribution. Due to lockdown, the raw materials used for food processing were not available. Therefore, much of foods processing/income were not achieved. This invariably resulted in food shortage and food insecurity and resulted in many (85%) households not having access to food. A high percentage of households reported skipping food once (60%) or twice (56%) a day (Fig. 6). Some crops are supposed to be harvested before the rain in flood-prone areas. However, due to the pandemic, they were left on the ground to spoil (70%). These measures also resulted in labor shortage which disrupted the production and processing of food, most especially for labor-intensive crops. Migrant workers left to their states, and those who stayed were not allowed to come out, which led to high labor cost even after the relaxation of some measures.

#### Conclusion

Climate variation causes events that affect many economies and has been linked to poor food production even before the pandemic. Thus, more effects were felt as part of the pandemic consequences, which led to food shortages. Lockdown and closure of borders led to farm labor shortage and increase in food prices. In addition, the amount of food that would have been produced by farmers reduced. Crops harvested by the farmers and ready for sale got wasted on the farm due to the movement restrictions. There were also few trucks available for transporting produces and food products, which led to an increase in transportation costs. Many low-income households, especially in the rural areas, could not afford to buy enough food to sustain the family, thereby causing hunger and malnutrition and lowering their immunity, which made them susceptible to diseases. This pandemic has affected the sustainable development goals toward achieving food security, namely, goal 1: no poverty, goal 2: zero hunger, goal 3: good health and well-being, goal 4: quality education, goal 5: gender equality, goal 6: clean water and sanitation, and goal 7: achieving human development goals and sustaining the ability of natural system to provide natural resources and ecosystem services by 2030.

#### Recommendation

Timely and effective policies should be implemented to prevent more effects on climate variations and also to reduce the consequences of COVID-19 so that extreme poverty and hunger can be avoided. To overcome challenges on food price, an adequate price control mechanism and a price monitoring system for food produce must be in place to evaluate the actions. Quality supervision of food items by the appropriate organs of the government is very important in ensuring food safety and quality, especially during and after the pandemic. Countries are encouraged to produce their own agricultural products. People are now advised to engage in agriculture to reduce the effect of the pandemic on food security.

#### References

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# Role of Small Grains in Adapting to Climate Change: Zvishavane District, Zimbabwe 31

Tendai Nciizah, Elinah Nciizah, Caroline Mubekaphi, and Adornis D. Nciizah

## Contents

This chapter was previously published non-open access with exclusive rights reserved by the Publisher. It has been changed retrospectively to open access under a CC BY 4.0 license and the copyright holder is "The Author(s)". For further details, please see the license information at the end of the chapter.

#### T. Nciizah

Department of Sociology, Rhodes University, Makhanda, South Africa

E. Nciizah Department of Development Studies, Zvishavane Campus, Midlands State University, Zvishavane, Zimbabwe e-mail<EMAIL_ADDRESS>
C. Mubekaphi School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Scottsville, South Africa

A. D. Nciizah (\*) Soil Science, Agricultural Research Council – Institute for Soil, Climate and Water, Pretoria, South Africa e-mail<EMAIL_ADDRESS>

#### Abstract

Climate change has become one of the most profound threats to smallholder agriculture in semi-arid and arid areas. Farmers in this sector are especially vulnerable to climate change due to reliance on rain-fed agriculture, limited access to capital and technology among other challenges. While several potential adaptation options exist, many barriers hinder effective adoption of these practices, hence production in marginal areas remains very low. This chapter discusses crop adaptation through the adoption of small grains in Zvishavane rural, a semi-arid area in Zimbabwe. Small grains are conducive in hot areas; their drought-tolerant nature enables them to thrive in marginal areas making them an appropriate strategy in responding to climate change. However, several production and policy challenges associated with small grain production hinder their adoption by farmers. In view of this, this chapter discusses the potential of small grains as an adaptation strategy to climate change in Zvishavane District, Zimbabwe, and addresses potential challenges and opportunities for increased adoption and future research. The review showed that farmers in Zvishavane have perceived climate change due to noticeable changes in rainfall and temperature patterns in the past years. Despite small grain production being the best strategy due to drought and high temperature tolerance, an insignificant number of Zvishavane farmers is involved in small grain production. This is due to numerous barriers such as high labor demand associated with small grain production, the challenge posed by the quelea birds, food preferences, low markets, and low extension services and government support. It is therefore necessary to encourage adoption of small grains by developing improved varieties, adoption of climate smart agricultural practices, improved technical support, and access to markets among other interventions.

#### Keywords

Adaptation · Climate change · Mitigation semi-arid areas · Small grain production · Smallholder farmers · Vulnerability

#### Introduction

Climate change has become one of the major threats to rain-fed agriculture resulting in major drawbacks in agricultural production and food security. IPCC (2007) notes that climate change has significantly modified rainfall and temperature patterns in many parts of the world. There is strong evidence of erratic rainfall and a noticeable shortening of the agricultural seasons worsened by higher ambient temperatures resulting in perennial crop failure and frequent droughts across the world (Jerie and Ndabaningi 2011). The adverse effects of climate change are more pronounced within the smallholder agricultural sector in Africa, including Zimbabwe, compared to the more technologically advanced and high resource input commercial sector. Generally, smallholder agriculture is practiced by families or households using only, or mostly, family labor and deriving from that work a large but variable share of their income, in kind or in cash (HLPE 2013). It therefore follows that the livelihoods of smallholder farmers largely depend on agriculture and are particularly vulnerable to several hazards. Consequently, if changing climatic conditions continue unabated, traditional rain-fed agricultural systems will become increasingly unsustainable with severe food security implications.

Temperature in the sub-Saharan Africa region is predicted to increase by between 1 °C and 2.5 °C by 2030, which will ultimately result in yield losses of up to 20% by the 2050s depending on region (IPCC 2007). Consistent with regional data, Zimbabwe's annual mean surface temperature has warmed by about 0.4 °C from 1900 to 2000 with the period from 1980 to date being the warmest on record. Moreover, the timing and amount of rainfall received are becoming increasingly uncertain, with current data showing that during the last 30 years there has been frequent droughts and rainfall has significantly decreased with shorter seasons (GoZ 2014). Consequently, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO 2007) observed that the crop failures have been a result of early termination of the rains in most seasons or low rainfalls in Zimbabwe, especially in semi-arid areas. Gukurume (2013) perceived that climate change in countries like Zimbabwe has presented insurmountable challenges to the agricultural sector as well as agricultural sustainability. Droughts, floods, increased temperature, increased rainfall variability, and declining precipitation negatively affected agriculture in Zimbabwe, with other districts recording almost nothing in terms of output (Zimbabwe Agricultural Sector survey 2019). The 2018/19 cropping season was marked by a late onset of rains, which resulted in abnormally dry conditions, affecting agricultural activities such as land preparation and planting (IPC Zimbabwe 2019).

The effects of climate change in Zimbabwe are exacerbated by the concentration of most smallholder farmers in marginal soils in semi-arid and arid areas located in the natural region IV and V, which makes them more vulnerable to climate change due to their low adaptive capacity. High temperature and erratic rainfall have resulted in constant low yields of the preferred maize staple in the country. Maize is not a drought-tolerant crop; hence, it is highly sensitive to harsh environmental conditions, which negatively affect the yield (Muzerengi and Tirivangasi 2019). There is therefore a need to implement adaptation and mitigation strategies that will ensure resilience to climate change. Adaptation has the potential to reduce adverse impacts of climate change and to enhance beneficial impacts and hence reduce vulnerability both in the short and long term (IPCC 2001). There are several adaptation interventions that have been suggested for smallholder farmers including but not limited to crop relocation, adjustment of planting dates, and crop variety; improved land management, e.g., erosion control and soil protection incorporating agroforestry (IPCC 2007). However, due to the vulnerability of maize to drought, there is the need to move away from the production of maize and look for alternative crops that thrive under changing climatic conditions. Sharma et al. (2002) highlighted that there is an urgent need to focus on improving crops relevant to the smallholder farmers and poor consumers in the semi-arid areas. This chapter focuses on the adoption of small grain crops, which have been shown to thrive under harsh conditions, as one of the most viable strategies that must be consistently implemented in such semi-arid and arid areas as Zvishavane District in Zimbabwe, which are facing significant production challenges due to climate change. Zvishavane District has experienced recurrent droughts, inconsistence rainfall, and is consequently one of the districts that constantly faces food insecurity in the country. According to Mawere et al. (2013), for the past two decades, Zvishavane, among others in Zimbabwe and beyond, has witnessed pronounced increases in temperature, recurrent droughts, and unpredictable rainfall patterns, yet people mainly depend on rain-fed agriculture and natural resources for their livelihoods. This chapter discusses the potential of small grains as an adaptation strategy to climate change in Zvishavane District, Zimbabwe, and addresses potential challenges and opportunities for increased adoption and future research. The chapter will answer the following questions:

#### Smallholder Farming in Zimbabwe

The smallholder sector is known for its small farms, mostly less than 2 hectares that are labor-intensive, uses traditional production techniques, and often lack institutional capacity and support (Louw 2013). The definition of smallholder farmer depends on the country; for instance, in Zimbabwe, smallholder farmers are typically farmers who are food insecure, predominantly in low rainfall areas who depend on rain-fed agriculture. Their reliance on rainfall for agricultural production exposes them to the risks posed by climate change. Smallholder farmers face challenges such as lack of infrastructure, reliance on rain-fed systems, highly degraded soils, a variety of chronic crop-affecting diseases, tough economic conditions due to poorly functioning markets, and limited access to credit, knowledge, and lack of farming skills (Mutekwa 2009). Lack of assets, information, and access to services deters smallholder farmers' involvement in possibly profitable markets. Moreover, most smallholder farmers are confronted with labor limitations as a result of HIV/AIDS, chronic illness, poverty, and illiteracy. Furthermore, smallholder farmers lack adequate knowledge, which leads to poor selection of cultivars, fertilizer application, and delayed planting of crops. As a result, the crop yields are negatively impacted. Worse still they are far from road networks to transport inputs, produce, and also access information and have a tendency to use inefficient modes of transport such as animals. In Zimbabwe there is nonexistence of investment in infrastructure, for instance, roads, storage, and market facilities and this handicap the potential role of smallholder farmers. This problem is not only common in Zimbabwe but the rest of Africa as well as most African government policies are unsuitable and inconsistent, and do not provide an enabling environment for the development of the small grains sector.

Mutasa (2011) highlighted the reasons below as challenges or factors that farmers are faced with that also increase farmers' vulnerability to climate change.

All the above mentioned challenges affect their competitiveness and it leads to them having high transport costs to sell their products in the market and buy inputs. In addition, smallholder farmers face challenges in accessing markets due to inadequate infrastructure, low productivity levels, inconsistencies in supply, and low quality owing to poor post-harvest practices (FAO). Smallholder farmers do not make much income as they lack a reliable market and as a result sell their produce at their farm gates or local market where they sell below market value (Aaron 2012). They tend to be inconsistent in production due to lack of bargaining power and inability to reliably supply their products fresh to markets (Aaron 2012). Harvested crops are threatened by insects such as weevils, larvae, termites, and rodents such as rats; these insects may be present in the grains making it less marketable. Some of the pests are attributed to lack of storage facilities as some smallholder farmers store grain in their sleeping quarters whereas those who have structures tend to be in very poor conditions and hence cannot hinder pest attack.

Changing climatic conditions have become one of the major challenges affecting smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe and the rest of the world. In 2016 and 2017, Zimbabwe had a drought, which was aggravated by the impact of El Niño. Smallholder farmers tend to suffer from these disasters due to their low adaptive capacity, which increase their vulnerability, hence they have no means of recovering from the effect this has on their livelihoods. Most smallholder farmers have a tendency to recover by selling their productive assets, such as their livestock or land. Moreover, these persistent droughts, which have taken place over the past few years due to changes in climate, continue to erode maize yields. For instance, maize yields have been reduced to less than 1.5 ton ha1 against a potential yield of more than 5 tons ha1 (de Jager et al. 2001).

Semi-arid and arid regions like Zvishavane district have some of the worst affected farmers in Zimbabwe. Zvishavane is a district in Zimbabwe bordered by Mberengwa, Chivi, and Shurugwi districts. The mean annual temperature is 20 °C although high temperatures of up to 30 °C have been recorded during the hot months from October to December (Nciizah 2014). The area receives an annual rainfall of about 450–600 mm placing it in region IV but during droughts there can be just 250 mm of rain (Oakland Institute Undated). According to the OCHA report ( 2012), region IV is subject to periodic seasonal droughts and severe dry spells during the rainy seasons, and crops can only be intensified by growing of drought-tolerant crops. Natural farming regions are a classification of the agricultural potential of the country, from natural region 1(>1000 mm per annum), which represents high altitude wet areas to natural farming region V, which receives low and erratic rainfall averaging 550 mm per annum (Mugabe et al. 2007). The table below shows the agroecological regions in Zimbabwe and their characteristics.

Rainfall in Zvishavane has been erratic such that in some areas like Mazvihwa, rain-fed agriculture has become unreliable, worsened by droughts that have gripped the country (Nciizah 2014). Despite the hot climatic condition of the district, agriculture remains the main source of livelihoods (Mugiya and Hofisi 2017). Just like all areas in Zimbabwe, the main crop grown by smallholder farmers in Zvishavane is maize. Droughts and little rainfall in the district have led to low maize crop yields leading to food insecurity to be high in the area. According to ZimVac (2015), Zvishavane was one of the districts with the highest food insecurity levels with 42.2%. In 2016, the level went up with 50% households being food insecure, hence the need for adaptation and mitigation measures in smallholder farming areas (ZimVac 2016). Adaptation measures include adjustment of planting dates and crop variety, crop relocation among others. However, one of the most recommended approach is the growing of drought-tolerant crops such as small grains (Gukurume 2013; Muzerengi and Tirivangasi 2019; Musara et al. 2019). Adoption of small grains becomes a crucial necessity that must be embraced by households in the area. Small grains grown in the area are sorghum and millet, with finger millet being more common than pearl millet (Nciizah 2014).

#### Farmers' Perceptions on Climate Change in Zvishavane

Smallholder farmers in Zvishavane perceive climate change using two variables, which are temperature and precipitation paying attention to events that have been occurring in the area for the past 10 to 20 years. Perceiving that climate is changing is crucial as it leads to adaptation. According to Jiri et al. (2015), perceptions help to shape smallholder farmers' coping and adaptation strategies. Adaptation is a two-step process, which requires that farmers first notice that the climate has changed and then secondly, implement adaptation strategies. Farmers' ability to acknowledge the importance of adapting therefore largely depends on whether they have observed that there is climate change in the first place (Nciizah 2019). Most studies have shown that farmers who perceive that the climate is changing in line with the actual climate change records are most likely to adapt to climate change (Jiri et al. 2015). Simba et al. (2012) concurs that the most crucial element in spearheading adaptation options is for farmers to perceive climate change. Such farmers who perceive that the climate has changed, for instance, will be able to realize a sharp decrease in maize yields. Numerous studies have been done on farmers' awareness on climate change (Gbetibouo 2009). A study by Okonya et al. (2013) in Uganda showed that 99% of all households interviewed had observed a change in the climate in the last 10 years.

The greatest concern for farmers in Zvishavane is the drastic changes in rainfall patterns and temperature. This is confirmed by the records from meteorological centers. A study by Jiri et al. (2015) also confirmed the decline in rainfall and an increase in temperatures over the years. Similarly, Mutekwa (2009) showed that farmers in Zvishavane were mainly concerned with precipitation and temperaturerelated weather events, as the ones that are a real concern in relation to their agricultural activities. There are now more experiences in dry spells and cold spells. Murowa ward in Zvishavane is already a drought prone area and farmers indicated that dry spells have become more frequent and devastating in recent years (Mutekwa 2009). Farmers in the area now experience extremely high temperatures and very low rainfall. Maddison (2006) also reported a similar trend of increasing temperatures in his study in 11 African countries. Another concern for smallholder farmers in Zvishavane is the changing onset of the rainfall season, which was confirmed by a study done by Mawere et al. (2013) in Zvishavane and Chivi. The study revealed that the climatic conditions that have prevailed for the past 5 years or so in agro ecological regions IV and V were very hot with dry conditions. There was rainfall below average (300 mm per annum) with poor distribution giving high chances of dry spells. In the past, the area used to receive three groups of rainfall, which are Bumharitsva (August), Hukurahundi (September), and Munakamwe (November) per year. Now they only receive one rainy season (munakamwe), which is also not predictable (Mawere et al. 2013). In addition, the farmers used to receive the last rains in March but this is no longer the case. The rains are no longer predictable as they can come very late and end early, something that has proved to be challenging to the farmers.

In the same study by Mawere et al. (2013), it was discovered that 96% of the respondents acknowledged their awareness of the changes in their local weather pattern and climate change. Many smallolder farmers in the study perceived the following as indicators: less and less rainfall leading to droughts, dwindling farming seasons, unpredictable weather patterns, high temperatures, decrease in livestock and crop production, low fruit production of wild fruit trees, and extinction of some area-specific species. Many smallholder farmers in Zvishavane have noted that although the coldest month of the year in Zimbabwe is June, it has been becoming less cold and the hottest month and October has become hotter than the previous years. It has also become apparent for most farmers that precipitation has been declining for years with more frequent drought occurrences. Drought occurrences have largely contributed to low yields and drastic effects on livestock production (Jiri et al. 2015). Farmers in Zvishavane have perceived inconsistent rainfall patterns and arid conditions in the area, which have led to the perennial flop of maize production (The Chronicle 2020). A survey done by International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) noted that most farmers in Mberengwa and Zvishavane have been realizing very low yields from maize and other crops because of the effects of climate change (The Chronicle 2020).

Wetlands in Zvishavane have also declined over the years. Farmers in Zvishavane pointed out that their cattle used to drink water at wells and wetlands around the area but the wetlands are no longer there and they have to fetch water from distant places (Mawere et al. 2013). They also add that mountains in the area used to have wind storms signifying coming of heavy rains. This however no longer happens. Storms used to signify rainfall as well as animals such as ducks, baboons, rain bird-blue bird. Such animals are no longer existent as they have moved to other areas in search of food (Mawere et al. 2013).

#### Smallholder Solutions for Climate Change

Climate change has rendered Zimbabwe's region IV a non-maize producing zone due to climate shocks, a situation that promotes food insecurity (Mugiya and Hofisi 2017). This has left the majority of people in semi-arid areas food insecure, which calls for the need for adaptation. Given the reliance of most people in Zimbabwe on rain-fed agriculture, it becomes pertinent to identify solutions that can be implemented in order to deal with the insurmountable challenges posed by climate change. There are a couple of solutions that have been identified in some studies inclusive of conservation agriculture, irrigation, and gardening. A study by Mutasa (2011) showed that farmers in Buhera and Chikomba districts have incorporated certain strategies to address droughts that are prevalent in the area. The strategies are inclusive of early cropping, staggered cropping, dry planting, and planting crops with a short maturity life. This study recommends the production of small grains in semi-arid areas like Zvishavane. Small grain production will likely curtail the numerous challenges faced by farmers in Zvishavane given the advantages posed by small grains. Small grains have always been there and are not new as they were there before the introduction of maize; they are an indigenous African crop with more nutritional benefits than maize.

Several studies have looked at how small grains can lead to food security especially in semi-arid areas (Leuschner and Manthe 1996; FAO 2006; Mukarumbwa and Mushunje 2010). They highlight the numerous advantages associated with small grain production. Among such advantages are their nutritious value, drought resistance, and how they can be stored for longer periods as compared to maize. Leuschner and Manthe (1996) pointed out that sorghum and millet are some of the most important cereal crops for communal farmers in Natural Regions 1 V and V of Zimbabwe. Their study showed that in regions with low and erratic rainfall like Zimbabwe's Natural Regions 1 V and V, small grains have the potential of stabilizing household food security. In a study by Taylor (2003), sorghum and millet are vitally important cereals for the maintenance of food security in Africa. FAO (2006) also supports that small grains are the answer to chronic food shortages to rural communities who reside in semi-arid regions, especially of the sub Saharan region.

#### Characteristics and Impact of Small Grain Production on Climate Change Adaptation in Zvishavane District

As alluded to earlier, more than 475 million smallholder farmers across the globe cultivate less than 2 ha of land each (Lowder et al. 2016) on poor and marginal land with lack of access to technical or financial support that could help them invest in more climate-resilient agriculture (Morton 2007). These challenges are exacerbated by the effects of climate change, hence the need for appropriate adaptive and mitigation measure. Due to these challenges, smallholder farmers in semi-arid to arid areas continue to achieve very low yields. Growing small grains becomes an adaptation measure that smallholder farmers in areas prone to water and heat stress need to implement instead of maize, which is highly susceptible to water stress. Although maize is the preferred grain crop in Zvishavane and the rest of Zimbabwe, it is frequently written-off due to frequent droughts (Nciizah 2014) resulting in maize yields below 1 ton/ha. Consequently, small grain crops like millet and sorghum, which can better withstand drought conditions and offer more stable yields in the long term, are a better choice (Nciizah 2014; ICRISAT 2015). Small grains, particularly sorghum, adapt well to harsh climates and thus can grow in dry conditions due to their ability to tolerate heat, salt, and water stress, which makes them an ideal crop for semi-arid and arid areas (ICRISAT 2015).

There has been a conscious drive by the Government of Zimbabwe (GoZ) to urge farmers in arid and semi-arid to opt for small grain as a coping mechanism to climate change as evidenced by the increase in programs promoting sorghum production (GoZ 2014). The government of Zimbabwe has been working with international organizations such as FAO and ICRISAT to assist farmers in the country's marginal areas to focus more on the production of small grains such as sorghum and millet in order to counter poor yield and hence hunger. In Zimbabwe, small grains (sorghum, pearl, and finger millet) rank second after maize and consequently play a vital role in ensuring food security and nutrition (UNDP 2018b).

Droughts and dry spells have made smallholder farmers in Zvishavane to be expected to rely on irrigation schemes if they want to produce good maize yields. Unfortunately most of these farmers do not have the financial capacity to purchase the required equipment and the much needed fertilizers (Nciizah 2014). It is therefore vital for these farmers to concentrate more on small grain production compared to maize. Most of the farmers in the area are still concentrating on maize production with only a few household producing small grains. They still follow the norm of the country whereby maize is the mainstay crop even in drier areas where small grains can be produced economically and sustainably (Rukuni et al. 2006). However, this needs to change as maize production is no longer conducive for semi-arid areas that are constantly facing droughts and erratic rainfall. Recently, Zvishavane faced a drought in the 2019/2020 season leading to crop failure. In such circumstances, full adoption of small grain adoption becomes a necessity if the area is to avoid zero crop yields. This is mainly because small grains have characteristics and properties that allow them to thrive in areas like Zvishavane.

Sorghum and millet are important traditional cereal crops in Africa (Chisi Undated). Notably these cereals are indigenous to the African continent (Musara et al. 2019), making them well adapted to the African semi-arid areas (Taylor 2003). These small grains have become favored because of their good adaptation to hard environments and their good yield of production. The grains are drought resistant as compared to maize, making them to thrive in areas that are hot and have limited rainfall. Water requirements over the growing period average 400 mm for sorghum and 300–350 mm for millet as compared to 500 mm that is required for maize (Orr et al. 2016).

Sorghum and millet also have deeper roots than maize and can withstand higher temperatures without damage to the crop (Orr et al. 2016). Bang and Sitango (2003) point out that small grains are generally the most drought-tolerant cereal grain crops as they require little input during growth. They bring more nutritional value to people's diet compared to cereals like maize. Dube (2008) posits that some of the advantages of small grains like sorghum and millet over maize include the following: a smaller amount of flour is needed to cook the main meal compared to maize, and a meal cooked from small grains satisfies hunger for a longer period and gives more energy (which is especially important for persons who do heavy manual labor like farmers).

Specifically, looking at finger millet, it can be observed that the crop has valuable properties that make it more beneficial to grow in the semi-arid of Zvishavane. The cereal is drought resistance in nature, has high nutritional content and has the ability to produce with few inputs. Finger millet is a nutritious crop providing proteins, carbohydrates, minerals, and amino acids, especially methionine, which is lacking in the diets of numerous poor people who live on starchy foods (Bhatt et al. 2003). This goes the same with sorghum, which remains important for sustainability of smallholder farmers' subsistence, social and economic livelihoods in semi-arid areas (Musara et al. 2019). Sorghum grain contains 11.3% protein, 3.3% fat, and 56–73% starch (National Research Council, 1996). It is relatively rich in iron, zinc, phosphorus, and B-complex vitamins. Tannins, found particularly in redgrained types, contain antioxidants that protect against cell damage, a major cause of diseases and aging (National Research Council, 1996). Thus, sorghum and millet have the capability of providing the nutritional value that can boost the immune system of people particularly poor families. They both have more health nutrients compared to maize, wheat, and rice and they improve the physical health of the elderly, the sick, children, and pregnant and nursing women. Another advantage of sorghum and finger millet maize is that they have a long shelf storage life as they can be stored for about 5 years compared to maize, which is only stored for about 2 years. Hence, they become conducive in Zvishavane, a place that is facing consistence drought and erratic rainfalls.

Although small grains are mostly suitable for Zvishavane, research conducted in the area shows that most smallholder farmers are still reluctant to fully adopt the grains. Mawere et al. (2013) in a study in Zvishavane stated that in as much as farmers reported that small grain crops performed much better than maize, most farmers still preferred growing maize. Similarly, Nciizah (2014) observed that an insignificant number of farmers were cultivating small grains in the area. Mugiya and Hofisi (2017) reported that while small grain crops prove to be a viable option to boost production in the background of climate change vulnerability, people in Zvishavane were not adopting such varieties enthusiastically, as adopting such varieties threatened their food preference. Hence, in Zvishavane, a significant number of households still prefer maize over small grain production. There are a number of barriers that have affected small grain production in Zvishavane. This has made the area to be consistently food insecure as smallholder farmers still grapple with inadequate yields.

#### Perceived Barriers to Small Grain Production in Zvishavane

Despite the advantages associated with small grains, small grain production remains low with only a few farmers producing these around Zimbabwe and specifically in Zvishavane. Studies done in Zimbabwe have shown that small grain production continue to decline (Gukurume 2013). The production of small grains has been very low in Zvishavane and the decline in small grain production is due to a number of barriers, which are central to this chapter. As indicated by smallholder famers in Zvishavane the major barriers to small holder production are labor constraints associated with small grain production, the challenge of birds (quelea birds), lack of inputs, and challenges associated with storage among other aspects. Studies have shown that small grain production is a good adaptive strategy, but is difficult to implement given the problems associated with the production of the crops. All barriers central to small grain production in Zvishavane are discussed below:

#### Lack of Inputs

UNDP (2018a) carried out a study on the barriers to small grain production. Their study showed that there are constraints in accessing inputs that limits the uptake of small grains. Overall, the results of the study showed that there is overreliance of farmers on untreated seed, evidencing inefficiency of the formal market. The study confirmed that treated and packed seed is not readily available in local markets or alternatively, if available, farmers do not afford the improved seed. This is the same case as what is transpiring in Zvishavane. There is limited access to small grain seeds, which reduces its production. In most cases, farmers end up using untreated seed, which largely contributes to poor yields.

While improved varieties of seeds have been released by NGOs in Zvishavane District, the seeds of these small grains are not readily available from the various seed producers (Nciizah 2014). Whether farmers in Zvishavane want to produce small grains or not, their choices are affected by limited seeds. Christian Care, a nongovernmental organization (NGO) operating in Zvishavane, has distributed seeds to farmers but with limited stock, which has resulted in few farmers accessing it. In addition, given the limited seed stock of small grains and the easier accessibility of maize seeds most farmers end up preferring maize. Mugiya and Hofisi (2017) cited that in Zvishavane there is too much politicization of programs geared to boost productivity among small-scale farmers. Farmers in the area revealed that farm inputs (inclusive of seeds), which are meant to benefit smallholder farmers, are usually diverted for political initiatives impacting negatively on small grain production. In most cases farmers in Zvishavane end up planting sorghum seeds that they saved from their yield (Mugiya and Hofisi 2017). Most of these seeds are of very low quality, which impacts heavily yield.

#### Labor Intensiveness

The cultivation of small grains is extremely laborious, from land preparation, weeding, bird scaring to harvesting and grain processing. Most farmers in the area rely on manual production methods, which explains why labor intensiveness is a major concern. Nciizah (2014) noted that 95% of farmers in Zvishavane pointed to the labor intensiveness associated with small grain production as a very significant challenge. The study also showed how weeding is made more challenging by the similarities that exist between the weed "Eleusine Indica" and finger millet. The two are so similar that in most cases one might end up removing the crop and leaving the weed. There is also so much labor associated with harvesting the small grains given that the seeds are too small to handle and so much is done manually. Because the seeds are small it takes skill and much effort to mill finger millet (Nciizah 2014; UNDP 2018a). Farmers also mentioned the labor demands associated with processing of small grains as one of the limiting factors. Farmers in the study mentioned how processing of small grains is laborious as it involves threshing and winnowing, which is also done manually.

#### The Challenge of Quela Birds

Even though small grains are generally tolerant to diseases there is a huge challenge of damage by quela birds. Like in most studies (Nciizah 2014; UNDP 2018a), birds and animals are the major challenges in small grain production. According to Nciizah (2019), the birds are attracted by the grain of the crops as the grains are exposed unlike those of maize, which is covered by leaves. Chasing birds is highly regarded as a strenuous activity that most farmers cannot embark on. Farmers in Zvishavane prefer producing maize as maize is prone to attacks by baboons and wild pigs, which are easier to scare away than birds which attack the crop in large numbers and are difficult to chase away (Nciizah 2014).

#### Low Yields

In Zimbabwe, production of maize continues to dominate in the country's semi-arid regions as compared to small grains (Sukume et al. 2000). The lower productivity associated with small grains makes them very unattractive to communal farmers in semi-arid areas. Small grains also require large farm size, which is out of the reach for most farmers in Zvishavane. Given the limited farm size in most places in Zvishavane, most farmers then prefer producing maize. A few of those who produce small grains have large land size and can also provide labor required to produce these. Some studies have also discovered that small grains do not yield much crop residue as compared to maize, resulting in most farmers preferring maize production. According to Mapfumo et al. (2005), maize production provides crop residue for livestock, which the livestock largely depend on for survival during winter.

#### Lack of Knowledge

Despite the evidently dismal performance of maize in the area as a result of the effects of climate change, most farmers have for years been disregarding and fiercely resisting advice from agricultural experts to plant small grains (The Chronicle 2020). Research has shown that people tend to be largely ill-informed about small grain production. Many farmers in Zvishavane ignored the calls to adopt small grain production and in many instances continued to produce maize despite the realization that they are likely to get very low yields due to drought (Nciizah 2014). This is largely attributed to taste preferences and the low yields associated with small grains. Due to unawareness and lack of prioritization of small grains, most farmers end up cultivating small grains in their worst part of arable land, which heavily impacts production yields.

#### Lack of Markets

It has been found out that when it comes to selling small grains, it has a very low market as people prefer other agricultural produce like maize. This is also confirmed by a study done by FAO (1996), which explains that as incomes rise, consumers tend to purchase wheat, rice, and, in some cases, maize, rather than traditional coarse grains. This has resulted in farmers viewing small grains as having lower earnings than other crops. Nciizah (2014) showed that one major disadvantage of small grains cited by Zvishavane farmers is the limited marketing opportunities. In the study farmers complained about the absence of a ready market for small grains. Farmers in Zvishavane do not rely on the Zimbabwe Grain Marketing Board (GMB) to buy small grains. According to Mugiya and Hofisi (2017), farmers complained that the GMB normally delays to pay farmers, a situation which further complicates their adaptation, as their purchasing power remains poor.

#### Low Extension Services and Government Support

Mukarumbwa and Mushunje (2010), show that small grain production has been negatively affected by inadequate government support. Research has shown that sorghum and millet are the most drought-tolerant cereal grain crops suitable in semi-arid regions (Taylor et al. 2006). The agricultural extension services department (AGRITEX) and the Department of Meteorological Services have extensively been incapacitated as a result of the country's economic and political challenges over the past decades that resulted in brain drain of skilled staff (Mutasa 2011). This has had a negative impact on farmers' production capacity and delivery of information about appropriate seeds and production technology. Mukarumbwa and Mushunje (2010) in their study indicated that inadequate government support to promote small grain production has led to low productivity of these small grains. Mugiya and Hofisi (2017) indicated that NGOs in Zvishavane are allegedly accused of imposing programs on small-scale farmers. The study also revealed that this also applies to government officials like extension officers. Extension officers believe that small-scale farmers are rigid and thus end up forcing farmers to adopt small grains. The farmers end up facing a challenge as their perceptions end up being ignored.

#### Food Preferences

A significant production constraint toward small grain production is food preferences. Most Zvishavane farmers significantly prefer maize due to taste preferences as compared to small grains. Mugiya and Hofisi (2017) reported that while small grain crops prove to be a viable option to boost production in Zvishavane in light of climate change, most farmers are not adopting small grains enthusiastically as it threatens their food preference. Such preferences affect the overall production of small grains. There remains a strong inclination to maize production as compared to small grain production. Maize is easily processed compared to small grains, which makes maize widely accepted. Jones (2011) pointed out food taste, media, and education as influential to people's food preference. Mugiya and Hofisi (2017) also indicated that children prefer maize to millet and sorghum. Food security in Zvishavane has been hindered due to farmers' rejection to produce small grains.

#### Interventions to Overcome the Barriers to Small Grains Adoption

Despite the huge potential of small grain crops to provide a viable adaptation mechanism to climate change, adoption among smallholder farmers remains disappointingly low due to the barriers addressed above. There is need for practical solutions from all stakeholders that will make the crop attractive for smallholder farmers in drought prone regions such as Zvishavane District. A comprehensive review by UNDP (2018b) on emerging solutions to small grains value chains in Zimbabwe identified the following interventions;

These interventions are likely to make small grain crops more attractive for smallholder farmers. For instance, Musara and Musemwa (2020) showed that the allocation of more land toward improved sorghum varieties by smallholder farmers resulted in improved food diversity and food access. Moreover, improved varieties are likely to be more resilient to elevated temperature and low rainfall conditions due to climate change. However, it is necessary for stakeholders to increase funding for the development of improved small grains varieties, which currently lags behind of maize. Nevertheless, it is important that breeders, seed companies, seeds suppliers, processors, and retailers work closely with smallholder farmers to effectively understand and incorporate farmers' preferences as the end users.

It is also important to note that while small grains like sorghum perform comparatively better than maize under harsh conditions, unfavorable soil conditions, extremes in weather, pests, and poor management practices negatively affect yield. Consequently, it is important to complement improved varieties with sustainable cropping practices. One of the most widely recommended approaches is climate smart agriculture (CSA), which entails agricultural practices that concurrently increase productivity, strengthens resilience to climate change (adaptation), reduces/removes GHGs (mitigation), and contributes to achieving food security and development objectives (FAO 2010). Examples of such practices include conservation agriculture, legume intercropping, agroforestry, organic agriculture, and improved pest, water, and nutrient management. These practices significantly improve soil health, which ultimately improves crop productivity. Improved cropping practices have a potential to improve yields, which may in turn increase adoption of small grains. An increase in the adoption of the crop may in turn make seed production more attractive for established seed companies, who currently do not see the benefit of producing small grain seed due to low sales. However, for farmers to adopt these sustainable agricultural practices, there is a need to strengthen technical support services. Poor technology as well is generally one of the most prevalent challenges to agricultural production and uptake of new technology in smallholder farming areas.

#### Conclusions

The Chapter examined the role played by small grains in adapting to climate change in Zvishavane. Farmers in Zvishavane have perceived climate change as they have noticed changes in rainfall and temperature patterns in the past years. Such perceptions have been helpful in assisting many farmers to realize the need to adapt to climate change. The most appropriate way to adapt to climate change in the area as shown in this chapter is small grain production. Small grain production is the best strategy given that small grains are drought resistant and can withstand the hot temperatures in Zvishavane. However, despite this realization, an insignificant number of Zvishavane farmers are involved in small grain production. This is due to numerous barriers that have affected the smooth implementation of small grains. Such barriers are inclusive of the labor associated with small grain production, the challenge posed by the quelea birds, food preferences, low markets, and low extension services and government support. If nothing is done to mitigate these barriers, Zvishavane will continue to be a food insecure area. In this regard, the chapter highlighted possible interventions that can assist in helping farmers adopt small grains, which include the development of improved varieties, adoption of CSA practices, improved technical support, and access to markets. The labor intensiveness associated with small grain production requires technology and machinery that help in reducing manual labor. There is also need for policies promoting small grain production and processing to add value to small grains.

#### References

3rd African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE) and 48th Agricultural Economists Association of South Africa (AEASA) Conference, Cape Town, South Africa, September 19–23, 2010

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## Constraints to Farmers' Choice of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Ondo State of Nigeria 32

George Olanrewaju Ige, Oluwole Matthew Akinnagbe, Olalekan Olamigoke Odefadehan, and Opeyemi Peter Ogunbusuyi

## Contents

#### Abstract

Nigeria being dependent on rain-fed agriculture and with low level of socioeconomic development is highly affected and vulnerable to climate change. It

This chapter was previously published non-open access with exclusive rights reserved by the Publisher. It has been changed retrospectively to open access under a CC BY 4.0 license and the copyright holder is "The Author(s)". For further details, please see the license information at the end of the chapter.

G. O. Ige (\*) · O. M. Akinnagbe · O. O. Odefadehan

Department of Agricultural Extension and Communication Technology, School of Agriculture and Agricultural Technology, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria e-mail<EMAIL_ADDRESS><EMAIL_ADDRESS><EMAIL_ADDRESS>
O. P. Ogunbusuyi