Abstract

The problem of banks bankruptcy risk forecasting under uncertainty is considered. For its solution, the application of computational intelligence methods fuzzy neural networks ANFIS and TSK and inductive modeling method FGMDH was suggested and explored. Experimental investigations were carried out and estimation of the efficiency of the suggested methods was performed at the problems of bankruptcy risk forecasting for Ukrainian and leading European banks. The efficiency comparison with classic statistical methods such as ARMA, logit, and probit models was fulfilled. The comparative experiments with rating system CAMELS and matrix method were carried out. In general, the comparative analysis had shown that fuzzy forecasting methods and techniques give better results than conventional crisp methods for forecasting bankruptcy risk. On the whole, the conclusions of experiments with European banks completely confirmed the conclusions of experiments with Ukrainian banks. But at the same time, the crisp methods are more simple in implementation and demand less time for their adjustment. The set of informative bank financial factors for bankruptcy risk forecasting was determined and estimated.

Keywords: banks bankruptcy risk, forecasting, FNN, FGMDH, ARMA, logit, probit model, rating system CAMELS