article: Polls yesterday suggested the election will be too close to call – with the Tories narrowly ahead in two, while another showed Labour edging in front. The news came as an American pollster – who predicted the results of the 2008 US presidential election almost exactly – concluded that both main parties will struggle to cobble together any kind of workable majority. The latest ICM poll for the Guardian had the Tories ahead on 34 per cent – down five points from a week ago. Labour were down one point on 32 per cent. Nate Silver, who correctly predicted the winner in 49 of 50 US states in 2008, believes that neither Labour or the Tories will be unable to get enough support together for a majority government . Meanwhile a new Populus poll found Labour unchanged on 34 per cent, while the Tories were down one, on 32 per cent. In a third poll, Lord Ashcroft found a Tory lead of four points – with the party on 34 per cent compared to Labour's 30 per cent. Pollster Nate Silver, who correctly called the winner in 49 of 50 US states in 2008, yesterday predicted a hung parliament after May 7 with the Tories winning 283 seats and Labour 274. This means that both David Cameron and Ed Miliband could find it almost impossible to secure enough support from other parties for a working majority – let alone rule on their own. Paddy Power said Mr Miliband is now more likely than Mr Cameron to be prime minister after the election . Mr Silver said Labour, who have ruled out a formal coalition with the SNP, would also be short of a majority even with the help of the Scottish Nationalists, whom he expects to gain 42 seats . Mr Silver said that even if the Tories join forces with the Lib Dems – who he believes will win 27 seats – they would still be 13 short of the 323 MPs needed for a majority. With Ukip expected to have only one MP in the projection, Nigel Farage would not be able to offer much help – and even with the support of eight Democratic Unionist Party MPs from Northern Ireland, Mr Cameron could not achieve a majority. Mr Silver said Labour, which has ruled out a formal coalition with the SNP, would also be short of a majority even with the help of the Scottish Nationalists, who he predicted will gain 42 seats. That would give Mr Miliband 316 seats – seven short of a majority. He would then have to try to gain support from smaller parties such as Plaid Cymru, the Greens and Northern Ireland's SDLP – but as they are projected to win only six seats between them, Labour would still be one short of the necessary 323.
highlights: Nate Silver predicts the Conservatives will win 283 seats and Labour 274 .
  Means both David Cameron or Ed Miliband could find it all but impossible to cobble together a workable coalition – let alone rule on their own .
  Respected US pollster predicted results of 2008 US election almost exactly .
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