a method for predicting the success of a new chemical entity , including the steps of providing a signal related to the new chemical entity , providing a therapeutic index , providing a conditional probability table , providing a prior probability distribution , providing a prior n , and calculating a posterior probability distribution for the new chemical entity . an apparatus for predicting the success of a new chemical entity including an input for a signal related to the new chemical entity , a therapeutic index , a conditional probability table , a prior probability distribution , a prior n , and a processor calculating a posterior probability distribution for the new chemical entity .