the present invention relates to a method for detecting one or more indicator of the probable onset of a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation ; primers for use in the method ; a computer model using detection of one or more indicator to the probable onset of a copd exacerbation for patient management and the prophylactic or curative treatment of copd exacerbation and to a prognostic and / or diagnostic test for use in the detection of one or more indicator to the probable onset of a copd exacerbation .