2006–2008 Lebanese protests

The 2006–2008 Lebanese protests were a series of political protests and sit-ins in Lebanon that began on 1 December 2006, led by groups that opposed the US and Saudi-backed government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and ended on 21 May 2008 with the signing of the Doha Agreement. The opposition was made up of Hezbollah, Amal, and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM); a number of smaller parties were also involved, including the Marada party, the Lebanese Communist Party and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. A majority of the members of the government were part of the anti-Syrian March 14 Alliance, a coalition of political parties and independents in Lebanon. The two groups were also divided along religious lines, with most Sunnis and Druze supporting the government, and most Shi'a supporting the opposition. The Christian community was split between the two factions, with Michel Aoun, the leader of the FPM, claiming to have more than 70% support among the Christians, based on the results of the 2005 parliamentary election.
The opposition, which had nearly 45% of the parliamentary seats, was seeking to create a national unity government, in which it demanded one more than one third of the Cabinet seats. This would give them veto power, as well as the ability to collapse the government. The government refused the demands. The opposition was also seeking to hold early parliamentary elections, hoping to remove the current majority held by the March 14 Alliance. Conversely, the March 14 Alliance majority was seeking to hold early presidential elections to replace pro-Syrian President Émile Lahoud. In the Lebanese political system, parliament elects the president. However, according to article 49 of the constitution, the President of Lebanon must receive two-thirds of the votes in the first session or an absolute majority of votes in subsequent sessions.
On 8 April 2007, Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the opposition, declared the situation deadlocked, but expressed an unwillingness to escalate the protests into a civil war. He suggested the status quo would continue until the regularly scheduled elections in 2009.
Nevertheless, a new wave of sectarian violence started in Lebanon in May 2008. Responding to the government's crackdown on Hezbollah's secured network the militants belonging to the organization and its allies blocked Beirut airport as well as main city streets, paralyzing life in the capital. On 8 May 2008, gun battles erupted between Hezbollah supporters and pro-government loyalists, while the leader of the organization called the government's decision "a declaration of war".
Following one week of clashes in May 2008, leaders of both the opposition and majority signed the Doha Agreement on 21 May, defusing the 18-month crisis. The agreement called for the election of General Michel Sulaiman as president and the formation of a national unity government under Fouad Siniora.
Background.
Following the Cedar Revolution and subsequent elections in July 2005, anti-Syrian and pro-American politicians held the majority of the twenty four seats in Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's cabinet, as well as the majority of the democratically elected parliament. Pro-Syrian and the Aoun Movement politicians held a minority of the seats in both the Cabinet of Ministers and the Parliament. Even though they held a majority, the pro-US group were not able to secure a two-thirds majority. Unlike other democracies, Lebanon cannot be ruled by a simple majority.
The anti-Syrian politicians were primarily members of the March 14 Alliance led by Saad Hariri, son of assassinated former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, and PSP leader Walid Jumblatt, amongst others. The opposition politicians were primarily members of anti-Syrian and Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, pro-Syrian Hassan Nasrallah's Hezbollah, and Nabih Berri's Amal Movement.
As political division in Lebanon persisted, Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri and thirteen other Lebanese leaders from various religious groups and political affiliations convened a "National Dialogue" conference on 2 March 2006, with the aim of addressing issues ranging from the status of President Émile Lahoud to the assassinations of prominent Lebanese figures, and the disputed border region of Shebaa farms, being held by Israel. Also on the agenda, the establishment of diplomatic relations with Syria.
On July 12, 2006, a Hezbollah raid across the Israeli border resulted in the capture of two soldiers and the deaths of three others, setting off the 2006 Lebanon War between Hezbollah paramilitary forces and the Israeli army that lasted 34 days. The conflict resulted in the deaths of over 1,100 Lebanese, the majority of whom were civilians, and the destruction of a significant amount of national civilian infrastructure, including Rafiq Hariri International Airport.
However, due to the failure of Israeli forces to eliminate Hezbollah's leadership, halt Katyusha rockets and mortar attacks on northern Israel, did not rescue its two captured soldiers, Hezbollah declared victory. By resisting destruction at the hands of a far more powerful opponent, Hezbollah's support in Lebanon increased significantly amongst sectors of the population. The ruling government, by contrast, was seen by some as impotent in comparison, for its failure to effectively combat the Israeli forces.
Syria and its allies declared the ruling government illegitimate, prevented the parliament from meeting and would not allow presidential elections to replace Emile Lahoud, who left office in November 2007. The Syrian Muhabarat acted through the Fatah al-Islam in the Palestinian refugee camps of northern Lebanon to disrupt the Sunni community and the Lebanese army. This may have been related to Bashar al-Asad's objections to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (Asad reportedly told Ban Ki-moon in April 2007 that "Instability would intensify if the Special tribunal were established).
The protest.
Timeline.
 
 
Arab League meetings.
Amr Moussa, the Arab League secretary-general, called on Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah to intervene to help Lebanon's deepening political crisis. Having been to the country with Moussa later on, the Arab League presidential envoy, Osman Ismail, said a road map had been set up to deal with the situation in Lebanon. However, according to many analysts, it was described as being rigged with mines that could explode anytime. And ultimately, Fouad Siniora stated that Lebanon was witnessing a very difficult moment in its history.
Economic impact.
The ongoing protests were estimated to cost the Lebanese economy approximately $70 million a day, or $560 million thus far, according to Lebanon's Economy Minister, Jihad Azour. Stores and restaurants in Beirut were forced to keep their doors closed, and the pedestrian streets were deserted. With the holiday season coming up, including Christmas for the large Christian community, and Eid ul-Adha on December 27 for the Muslim community, businesses fear losing even more income due to the political crisis. Tourism, one of the largest sectors of the economy, which had still not fully recovered from the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah conflict, was also adversely impacted from the mounting tensions after the November 21, 2006 assassination of Cabinet Minister Pierre Gemayel. With Lebanon being a popular holiday destination, businesses also fear that the drop in tourism will further impact their business, with Paul Achkar, head of the Lebanese hotel association, stating that hotel occupancy is currently 25% of normal.
In March 2007, Standard Chartered Bank published a report that expressed concern about the ability of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government to push for fiscal and economic reforms amid the acute political division in the country.
Position of foreign governments.
Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
On November 27, 2006, King Abdullah II of Jordan warned that the world might witness three civil wars in 2007 – one in Iraq, one in the Palestinian territories, and one in Lebanon.
As the protest began, leaders in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan publicly supported Siniora.
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak told French television that the opposition was being unreasonable. "There is also the risk of outside interference in these demonstrations. That can lead to very serious confrontations and even lead to the destruction of Lebanon," he said.
Israel.
On December 5, 2006 the Israeli government considered redeploying troops in Lebanon, without regard for the UNIFIL forces already in the country, if the Hezbollah-led protest succeeds in toppling the current Lebanese government. An Israeli government staff and a journalist from the "Jerusalem Post" warned that the goal of both Hezbollah and its sponsor, Iran, if achieved, could lead to negative results beyond Israel.