BackgroundDiabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a severe complication of diabetes. Currently, no effective measures are available to reduce the risk of DKD progression. This study aimed to establish a weighted risk model to determine DKD progression and provide effective treatment strategies.MethodsThis was a hospital-based, cross-sectional study. A total of 1104 patients with DKD were included in this study. The random forest method was used to develop weighted risk models to assess DKD progression. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to validate the models and calculate the optimal cutoff values for important risk factors.ResultsWe developed potent weighted risk models to evaluate DKD progression. The top six risk factors for DKD progression to chronic kidney disease were hemoglobin, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), serum uric acid (SUA), plasma fibrinogen, serum albumin, and neutrophil percentage. The top six risk factors for determining DKD progression to dialysis were hemoglobin, HbA1c, neutrophil percentage, serum albumin, duration of diabetes, and plasma fibrinogen level. Furthermore, the optimal cutoff values of hemoglobin and HbA1c for determining DKD progression were 112 g/L and 7.2%, respectively.ConclusionWe developed potent weighted risk models for DKD progression that can be employed to formulate precise therapeutic strategies. Monitoring and controlling combined risk factors and prioritizing interventions for key risk factors may help reduce the risk of DKD progression.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-023-04245-w.