In direct contact membrane distillation (DCMD), heat and mass transfers occur through the porous membrane. Any model developed for the DCMD process should therefore be able to describe the mass transport mechanism through the membrane, the temperature and concentration effects on the surface of the membrane, the permeate flux, and the selectivity of the membrane. In the present study, we developed a predictive mathematical model based on a counter flow heat exchanger analogy for the DCMD process. Two methods were used to analyze the water permeate flux across one hydrophobic membrane layer, namely the log mean temperature difference (LMTD) and the effectiveness-NTU methods. The set of equations was derived in a manner analogous to that employed for heat exchanger systems. The obtained results showed that the permeate flux increases by a factor of approximately 220% when increasing the log mean temperature difference by a factor of 80% or increasing the number of transfer units by a factor of 3%. A good level of agreement between this theoretical model and the experimental data at various feed temperatures confirmed that the model accurately predicts the permeate flux values for the DCMD process.