A long-term membrane resistance model (LMR) was established to determine the sustainable critical flux, which developed and simulated polymer film fouling successfully in a lab-scale membrane bioreactor (MBR) in this study. The total polymer film fouling resistance in the model was decomposed into the individual components of pore fouling resistance, sludge cake accumulation and cake layer compression resistance. The model effectively simulated the fouling phenomenon in the MBR at different fluxes. Considering the influence of temperature, the model was calibrated by temperature coefficient τ, and a good result was achieved to simulate the polymer film fouling at 25 and 15 °C. The relationship between flux and operation time was simulated and discussed through the model. The results indicated that there was an exponential correlation between flux and operation time, and the exponential curve could be divided into two parts. By fitting the two parts to two straight lines, respectively, the intersection of the two straight lines was regarded as the sustainable critical flux value. The sustainable critical flux obtained in this study was just 67% of the critical flux. The model in this study was proven to be in good agreement with the measurements under different fluxes and different temperatures. In addition, the sustainable critical flux was first proposed and calculated in this study, and it was shown that the model could be used to predict the sustainable operation time and sustainable critical flux, which provide more practical information for designing MBRs. This study is applicable to polymer films used in a wide variety of applications, and it is helpful for maintaining the long-term stable operation of polymer film modules and improving the efficiency of polymer film modules.