BackgroundProgression of disease within 24 months (POD24) is a risk factor for poor survival in follicular lymphoma (FL), and there is currently no optimal prognostic model to accurately predict patients with early disease progression. How to combine traditional prognostic models with new indicators to establish a new prediction system, to predict the early progression of FL patients more accurately is a future research direction.MethodsThis study retrospectively analyzed patients with newly diagnosed FL patients in Shanxi Provincial Cancer Hospital from January 2015 to December 2020. Data from patients undergoing immunohistochemical detection (IHC) were analyzed using χ2test and multivariate Logistic regression. Also, we built a nomogram model based on the results of LASSO regression analysis of POD24, which was validated in both the training set and validation set, and additional external validation was performed using a dataset (n = 74) from another center, Tianjin Cancer Hospital.ResultsThe multivariate Logistic regression results suggest that high-risk PRIMA-PI group, Ki-67 high expression represent risk factors for POD24 (P<0.05). Next, PRIMA-PI and Ki67 were combined to build a new model, namely, PRIMA-PIC to reclassify high and low-risk groups. The result showed that the new clinical prediction model constructed by PRIMA-PI with ki67 has a high sensitivity to the prediction of POD24. Compared to PRIMA-PI, PRIMA-PIC also has better discrimination in predicting patient’s progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). In addition, we built nomogram models based on the results of LASSO regression (histological grading, NK cell percentage, PRIMA-PIC risk group) in the training set, which were validated using internal validation set and external validation set, we found that C-index and calibration curve showed good performance.ConclusionAs such, the new predictive model-based nomogram established by PRIMA-PI and Ki67 could well predict the risk of POD24 in FL patients, which boasts clinical practical value.