IntroductionWaist-corrected body mass index (wBMI), which combines BMI and waist circumference (WC) measurements, has proven superior to either measure alone for predicting obesity but has not yet been applied to the prediction of diabetes mellitus (DM).MethodsOver a 5-year period, 305,499 subjects were eligible for this study based on citizen health check-ups in the Tacheng Area of northwest China. Diagnosis of DM was defined as the end point.ResultsAfter exclusion, a total of 111,851 subjects were included in the training cohort and 47,906 in the validation cohort. Participants of both sexes with wBMI in the upper quartiles had significantly higher incidence of DM than those with wBMI in the lower quartiles (log-rank χ2 =236, p< 0.001 for men; log-rank χ2 =304, p< 0.001 for women). After adjusting for multiple variables, WC, BMI, wBMI, and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) were all independent predictors for diabetes. In men, the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of wBMI for diabetes for the second, third, and fourth quartiles were 1.297 [95% CI: 1.157, 1.455], 1.664 [95% CI: 1.493, 1.853], and 2.132 [95% CI: 1.921, 2.366], respectively, when compared with the first quartile. In women, they were 1.357 [95% CI: 1.191, 1.546], 1.715 [95% CI: 1.517, 1.939], and 2.262 [95% CI: 2.010, 2.545], respectively. Compared with WC, BMI, and WHtR, wBMI had the highest C-index in both men (0.679, 95% CI: 0.670, 0.688) and women (0.730, 95% CI: 0.722, 0.739). Finally, a nomogram was constructed to predict incident DM based on wBMI and other variables. In conclusion, wBMI had the strongest predictive capacity for incident DM when compared with WC, BMI, and WHtR, especially in women.DiscussionThis study provides a reference for advanced investigation of wBMI on DM and other metabolic diseases in the future.