AbstractBackgroundThe Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire (ÖMPSQ) was developed to identify psychological and functioning-related risk factors among individuals with musculoskeletal pain at risk of work disability. This study aimed to examine whether the short version of the ÖMPSQ (ÖMPSQ-SF) can be used for this purpose, using registry-based outcomes.MethodsThe ÖMPSQ-SF was completed by the members of the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 at the age of 46 years (baseline). These data were enriched with national registers, including information on sick leaves and disability pensions (indicators of work disability). The associations between the ÖMPSQ-SF categories (low-, medium- and high risk) and work disability over a 2-year follow-up were analysed using negative binomial regression and binary logistic regression models. We made adjustments for sex, baseline education level, weight status and smoking.ResultsOverall, 4063 participants provided full data. Of these, 90% belonged to the low-risk, 7% to the medium-risk and 3% to the high-risk group. Compared to the low-risk group, the high-risk group had a 7.5 [Wald 95% confidence interval (CI) 6.2–9.0] times higher number of sick leave days and 16.1 (95% CI 7.1–36.8) times higher odds of disability pension after adjustments in the 2-year follow-up.Conclusions: Our study suggests that the ÖMPSQ-SF could be used for predicting registry-based work disability at midlife. Those allocated to the high-risk group seemed to have a particularly great need of early interventions to support their work ability.