BackgroundMetastasis dominates the prognosis of eyelid sebaceous carcinoma (SC). This study aimed to explore risk factors for nodal metastasis and develop a nomogram to predict nodal metastasis in patients with eyelid SC.MethodsA retrospective case–control study was performed, comprising 320 patients with eyelid SC. Cox analyses were employed to investigate predictors of metastasis-free survival (MFS), and a nomogram was established and validated by the bootstrap method.ResultsForty patients (12.5%) developed nodal metastasis during a median follow-up of 48.0 months, and the median period between the initial treatment and first nodal metastasis was 18.5 months (range 6.0–80.0 months). The 1-year, 3-year and 5-year nodal metastasis rates were 5.5%, 12.5% and 15.4%, respectively. Diffuse pattern (HR: 4.34, 95% CI 1.75 to 10.76, p=0.002), orbital invasion at presentation (HR: 3.22, 95% CI 1.42 to 7.33, p=0.005), perineural invasion (HR: 3.24, 95% CI 1.11 to 9.49, p=0.032) and high Ki-67 percentage (HR: 1.03, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.05, p<0.001) were identified as independent risk factors for nodal metastasis. A nomogram that integrated these four factors had a C-index of 0.785, demonstrating a strong power in predicting nodal metastasis of eyelid SC.ConclusionsWe identified risk factors for nodal metastasis and developed a nomogram to provide individualised estimates of nodal metastasis for eyelid SC patients and guide postoperative management. This nomogram contained clinicopathological factors besides the T category of the TNM staging system and suggesting great clinical value.