BackgroundSkip metastasis in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC), defined as lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) without the involvement of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM), is generally unpredictable. Our study aimed to develop a model to predict skip metastasis by using clinicopathological and ultrasound factors of PTC.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients who underwent total thyroidectomy and central lymph node dissection (CLND) plus lateral lymph node dissection (LLND) between January 2019 and December 2021 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University. Furthermore, univariate and multivariate analyses assessed the clinical and ultrasound risk factors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to find the optimal cut-off values for age and dominant nodule diameter. Multivariate logistic regression analysis results were used to construct a nomogram and were validated internally.ResultsIn all patients, the skip metastasis rate was 15.4% (41/267). Skip metastasis was more frequently found in patients with a tumour size ≤10 mm (OR 0.439; P = 0.033), upper tumour location (OR 3.050; P=0.006) and fewer CLNDs (OR 0.870; P = 0.005). After analysing the clinical and ultrasound characteristics of the tumour, five factors were ultimately associated with lateral lymph node skip metastasis and were used to construct the model. These factors were an age >40 years, tumour diameter <9.1 mm, upper tumour location, non-smooth margin and extrathyroidal extension. The internally evaluated calibration curves indicated an excellent correlation between the projected and actual skip metastasis probability. The nomogram performed well in discrimination, with a concordance index of 0.797 (95% CI, 0.726 to 0.867).ConclusionsThis study screened for predictors of skip metastasis in PTC and established a nomogram that effectively predicted the risk of potential skip metastasis in patients preoperatively. The method can predict and distinguish skip metastases in PTC in a simple and inexpensive manner, and it may have future therapeutic utility.