PurposeTo evaluate a new class of blood-based biomarkers, anti-frameshift peptide antibodies, for predicting both tumor responses and adverse immune events to immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapies in advanced lung cancer patients.Experimental designSerum samples were obtained from 74 lung cancer patients prior to palliative PD-(L)1 therapies with subsequently recorded tumor responses and immune adverse events (irAEs). Pretreatment samples were assayed on microarrays of frameshift peptides (FSPs), representing ~ 375,000 variant peptides that tumor cells can be informatically predicted to produce from translated mRNA processing errors. Serum-antibodies specifically recognizing these ligands were measured. Binding activities preferentially associated with best-response and adverse-event outcomes were determined. These antibody bound FSPs were used in iterative resampling analyses to develop predictive models of tumor response and immune toxicity.ResultsLung cancer serum samples were classified based on predictive models of ICI treatment outcomes. Disease progression was predicted pretreatment with ~ 98% accuracy in the full cohort of all response categories, though ~ 30% of the samples were indeterminate. This model was built with a heterogeneous sample cohort from patients that (i) would show either clear response or stable outcomes, (ii) would be administered either single or combination therapies and (iii) were diagnosed with different lung cancer subtypes. Removing the stable disease, combination therapy or SCLC groups from model building increased the proportion of samples classified while performance remained high. Informatic analyses showed that several of the FSPs in the all-response model mapped to translations of variant mRNAs from the same genes. In the predictive model for treatment toxicities, binding to irAE-associated FSPs provided 90% accuracy pretreatment, with no indeterminates. Several of the classifying FSPs displayed sequence similarity to self-proteins.ConclusionsAnti-FSP antibodies may serve as biomarkers for predicting ICI outcomes when tested against ligands corresponding to mRNA-error derived FSPs. Model performances suggest this approach might provide a single test to predict treatment response to ICI and identify patients at high risk for immunotherapy toxicities.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-023-04172-w.