Among myriad complex challenges facing educational institutions in this era of a rapidly evolving job marketplace is the development of career self-efficacy among students. Self-efficacy has traditionally been understood to be developed through the direct experience of competence, the vicarious experience of competence, social persuasion, and physiological cues. These four factors, and particularly the first two, are difficult to build into education and training programs in a context where changing skills make the specific meaning of graduate competence largely unknown and, notwithstanding the other contributions in this collection, largely unknowable. In response, in this paper we argue for a working metacognitive model of career self-efficacy that will prepare students with the skills needed to evaluate their skills, attitudes and values and then adapt and develop them as their career context evolves around them. The model we will present is one of evolving complex sub-systems within an emergent milieu. In identifying various contributing factors, the model provides specific cognitive and affective constructs as important targets for actionable learning analytics for career development.