Warm deformation is a plastic-forming process that differs from traditional cold and hot forming techniques. At the macro level, it can effectively reduce the problem of high deformation resistance in cold deformation and improve the surface decarburization issues during the hot deformation process. Microscopically, it has significant advantages in controlling product structure, refining grain size, and enhancing product mechanical properties. The Gleeble-1500D thermal–mechanical physical simulation system was used to conduct isothermal compression tests on GCr15 bearing steel. The tests were conducted at temperatures of 600–1050 °C and strain rates of 0.01–5 s−1. Based on the experimental data, the critical strain model and dynamic recrystallization model for the warm–hot forming of GCr15 bearing steel were established in this paper. The model accuracy is evaluated using statistical indicators such as the correlation coefficient (R). The dynamic recrystallization model exhibits high predictive accuracy, as indicated by an R-value of 0.986. The established dynamic recrystallization model for GCr15 bearing steel was integrated into the Forge®3.2 numerical simulation software through secondary program development to simulate the compression process of GCr15 warm–hot forming. The dynamic recrystallization fraction was analyzed in various deformation regions. The grain size of the severe deformation zone, small deformation zone, and difficult deformation zone was compared based on simulated compression specimens under the conditions of 1050 °C and 0.1 s−1with the corresponding grain size obtained with measurement based on metallographic photos; the relative error between the two is 5.75%. This verifies the accuracy of the established dynamic recrystallization and critical strain models for warm–hot deformation of GCr15 bearing steel. These models provide a theoretical basis for the finite element method analysis and microstructure control of the warm–hot forming process in bearing races.