BackgroundThe prognosis prediction of locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) was important to individualized treatment, we aimed to investigate the performance of ultra-high b-value DWI (UHBV-DWI) in progression risk prediction of LARC and compare with routine DWI.MethodsThis retrospective study collected patients with rectal cancer from 2016 to 2019. Routine DWI (b = 0, 1000 s/mm2) and UHBV-DWI (b = 0, 1700 ~ 3500 s/mm2) were processed with mono-exponential model to generate ADC and ADCuh, respectively. The performance of the ADCuh was compared with ADC in 3-year progression free survival (PFS) assessment using time-dependent ROC and Kaplan-Meier curve. Prognosis model was constructed with ADCuh, ADC and clinicopathologic factors using multivariate COX proportional hazard regression analysis. The prognosis model was assessed with time-dependent ROC, decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curve.ResultsA total of 112 patients with LARC (TNM-stage II-III) were evaluated. ADCuh performed better than ADC for 3-year PFS assessment (AUC = 0.754 and 0.586, respectively). Multivariate COX analysis showed that ADCuh and ADC were independent factors for 3-year PFS (P< 0.05). Prognostic model 3 (TNM-stage + extramural venous invasion (EMVI) + ADCuh) was superior than model 2 (TNM-stage + EMVI + ADC) and model 1 (TNM-stage + EMVI) for 3-year PFS prediction (AUC = 0.805, 0.719 and 0.688, respectively). DCA showed that model 3 had higher net benefit than model 2 and model 1. Calibration curve demonstrated better agreement of model 1 than model 2 and model 1.ConclusionsADCuh from UHBV-DWI performed better than ADC from routine DWI in predicting prognosis of LARC. The model based on combination of ADCuh, TNM-stage and EMVI could help to indicate progression risk before treatment.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40644-023-00582-7.