ObjectivesTo assess the surgical accuracy of 3D virtual surgical planned orthognathic surgery and the influence of posterior impaction and magnitude of the planned movements on a possible learning curve.Materials and methodsThis prospective cohort study included subjects who underwent bimaxillary surgery between 2016 and 2020 at the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery of the Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen. 3D virtual surgical planning (VSP) was performed with CBCT data and digitalized dentition data. By using voxel-based matching with pre- and postoperative CBCT data the maxillary movements were quantified in six degrees of freedom. The primary outcome variable, surgical accuracy, was defined as the difference between the planned and achieved maxillary movement.ResultsBased on 124 subjects, the surgical accuracy increased annually from 2016 to 2020 in terms of vertical translations (0.82 ± 0.28 mm;p= 0.038) and yaw rotations (0.68 ± 0.22°;p= 0.028). An increase in surgical accuracy was observed when combining all six degrees of freedom (p= 0.021) and specifically between 2016 and 2020 (p= 0.004). An unfavorable learning curve was seen with posterior impaction and with a greater magnitude of movements.ConclusionThe present study demonstrated a significant increase in surgical accuracy annually and therefore supports the presence of a learning curve.Clinical relevanceCases with planned maxillary posterior impaction and/or a great magnitude of jaw movements should be transferred from the 3D VSP with extra care to obtain a satisfactory surgical accuracy.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00784-023-05013-2.