Simple SummaryFrankliniella occidentalis(Pergande) is an invasive pest of a small size with a high reproduction rate. The main damage caused byF. occidentalisis the transmission of the tomato spotted wilt virus, which has had certain impacts on agriculture in China. In this work, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) in the species distribution model was used to predict the suitable existence range ofF. occidentalisin China, and areas of three levels, including high-, medium- and low-suitable zones, were obtained. In particular, the trend of the species’ future geographical distribution was derived based on the results of future projections. The results show that the areas of high- and low-suitability zones will continue to decrease in the future, and the area of medium-suitability zones will significantly increase. Then, the environmental variables affecting the distribution of the insect were screened, and it was concluded that temperature and precipitation might be the two factors affecting the distribution of this species that are worthy of consideration. This study provides certain references for the future pest control ofF. occidentalis.AbstractClimate change has a highly significant impact on the distribution of species. As the greenhouse effect intensifies each year, the distribution of organisms responds to this challenge in diverse ways. Therefore, climatic environmental variables are a key entry point for capturing the current and future distribution trends of pests.Frankliniella occidentalisis an invasive pest attested worldwide. Its damage is mainly divided into two aspects, including mechanical damage caused by its feeding and egg laying and the spread of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV). TSWV is the most dominant transmitted virulent disease. Moreover,F. occidentalisis the major vector for the transmission of this virus, which poses a grave threat to the yield and survival of our crops. In this study, the distribution pattern of this pest was explored using 19 bioclimatic variables based on the Maxent model. The results indicated that in the future, high-suitability areas ofF. occidentaliswill be widely distributed in 19 provinces of China, with Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Tianjin and Yunnan being the most abundant. Among the 19 bioclimatic variables, the five variables of annual mean temperature (Bio 1), temperature seasonality (standard deviation × 100) (Bio 4), min temperature of the coldest month (Bio 6), mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio 9) and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio 19) were selected as the key environmental variables affecting the distribution ofF. occidentalis. In summary, temperature and precipitation are vital factors for the study of the species’ distribution, and this study aims to provide new perspectives for the control of this pest in China.