ObjectivesWhether paraspinal muscle degeneration is related to poor clinical outcomes after lumbar surgery is still indistinct, which limits its clinical application. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of paraspinal muscle morphology on functional status and re-operation after lumbar spinal surgery.MethodsA review of the literature was conducted using a total of 6917 articles identified from a search of PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases through September 2022. A full-text review of 140 studies was conducted based on criteria including an objective assessment of preoperative paraspinal muscle morphology including multifidus (MF), erector spinae (ES), and psoas major (PS) in addition to measuring its relationship to clinical outcomes including Oswestry disability index (ODI), pain and revision surgery. Meta-analysis was performed when required metrics could be calculated in ≥ three studies, otherwise vote counting model was a good alternative to show the effect direction of evidence. The standardized mean difference (SMD) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated.ResultsA total of 10 studies were included in this review. Of them, five studies with required metrics were included in the meta-analysis. The meta-analysis suggested that higher preoperative fat infiltration (FI) of MF could predict higher postoperative ODI scores (SMD = 0.33, 95% CI 0.16–0.50,p= 0.0001). For postoperative pain, MF FI could also be an effective predictor for persistent low back pain after surgery (SMD = 0.17, 95% CI 0.02–0.31,p= 0.03). However, in the vote count model, limited evidence was presented for the prognostic effects of ES and PS on postoperative functional status and symptoms. In terms of revision surgery, there was conflicting evidence that FI of MF and ES could predict the incidence of revision surgery in the vote count model.ConclusionThe assessment of MF FI could be a viable method to stratify patients with lumbar surgery by the risk of severe functional disability and low back pain.Key Points•The fat infiltration of multifidus can predict postoperative functional status and low back pain after lumbar spinal surgery.•The preoperative evaluation of paraspinal muscle morphology is conducive for surgeons.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00330-023-09548-6.