ObjectivesLoneliness is a major public health concern. Duration of loneliness is associated with severity of health outcomes, and further research is needed to direct interventions and social policy. This study aimed to identify predictors of the onset vs. the maintenance of loneliness in older adults before and during the pandemic using longitudinal data from the Survey of Health, Age, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE).MethodsGroupings of persistent, situational, and no loneliness were based on self-reports from an ordinary pre-pandemic SHARE wave and a peri-pandemic telephone interview. Predictors were identified and compared in three hierarchical binary regression analyses, with independent variables added in blocks of geographic region, demographics, pre-pandemic social network, pre-pandemic health, pandemic-related individual, and country level variables.ResultsSelf-reported loneliness levels for the persistent, situational, and no loneliness groups were stable and distinct through 7 years preceding the pre-pandemic baseline measure. Shared predictors were chronic diseases, female sex, depression, and no cohabitant partner. Persistent loneliness was uniquely predicted by low network satisfaction (OR: 2.04), functional limitations (OR: 1.40), and a longer country-level isolation period for older adults (OR: 1.24).ConclusionInterventions may target persons with depression, functional limitations, chronic health issues, and no cohabitant partner. The added burden of the length of isolation on those who are already lonely should be taken into account when employing social policies that target older adults. Further research should distinguish between situational and persistent loneliness, and seek to identify predictors of chronic loneliness onset.