Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a new diagnostic criterion based on hepatic steatosis and metabolic dysfunction. However, a comprehensive evaluation of the association of MAFLD dynamic transitions with arterial stiffness progression has yet to be conducted. This cohort study included 8807 Chinese health check-up participants (median follow-up = 50.2 months). Participants were categorized into four groups according to MAFLD status at baseline and follow-up (none, persistent, developed and regressed). Arterial stiffness progression was assessed by the annual brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (ba-PWV) increase and arterial stiffness incidence. Compared with the non-MAFLD group, the annual increase in ba-PWV was highest in the persistent-MAFLD group [6.75 cm/s/year, (95% CI 4.03–9.33)], followed by the developed—[6.35 cm/s/year, (95% CI 3.80–8.91)] and the regressed—[1.27 cm/s/year, (95% CI − 2.18 to 4.72)] MAFLD groups. Similarly, compared with the non-MAFLD group, the persistent-MAFLD group had a 1.31-fold increased arterial stiffness risk [OR 1.31; 95% CI 1.03–1.66]. The associations of MAFLD transition patterns with arterial stiffness incidence did not differ across any clinically specific subgroups evaluated. Furthermore, the potential effect of dynamic changes in cardiometabolic risk factors on arterial stiffness incidence among persistent-MAFLD participants was mostly driven by annual fasting glucose and triglyceride increases. In conclusion, persistent MAFLD was associated with an increased risk of arterial stiffness development. Moreover, in persistent-MAFLD subjects, elevated blood glucose and triglyceride levels might facilitate the arterial stiffness incidence.