The food supply–demand balance is a perpetual concern for many countries, especially developing countries, such as Uzbekistan. Using the land resource carrying capacity model, here, food supply and demand for the cereals and calories in Uzbekistan during 1995–2020 were revealed. Despite increased demand for cereals and calories, unstable crop production has led to volatile growth patterns. The carrying capacity of cropland resources under Uzbekistan’s consumption standard shifted from overload to surplus and then to balance. Moreover, the carrying capacity of cropland resources under the healthy diet standard moved from balance to surplus in the past 25-years. Additionally, the calorific equivalent land resource carrying capacity under Uzbekistan’s consumption standard fluctuated, with the carrying state shifting from balance to surplus, and the healthy diet standard still in overload. These findings can help guide sustainable production and consumption strategies in Uzbekistan and other countries by analyzing the consumption structure and changes in supply and demand relationships.