Background & aimsThe effect of change in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) status on incident diabetes has not been well studied. We aimed to investigate the association of NAFLD development and remission with the risk of incident diabetes during a median of 3.5-year follow-up.MethodsA total of 2690 participants without diabetes were recruited in 2011-2012 and assessed for incident diabetes in 2014. Abdominal ultrasonography was used to determine the change of NAFLD. 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed to determine diabetes. NAFLD severity was assessed using Gholam’s model. The odds ratios (ORs) for incident diabetes were estimated by logistic regression models.ResultsNAFLD was developed in 580 (33.2%) participants and NAFLD remission occurred in 150 (15.9%) participants during a median of 3.5-year follow-up. A total of 484 participants developed diabetes during follow-up, including 170 (14.6%) in consistent non-NAFLD group, 111 (19.1%) in NAFLD developed group, 19 (12.7%) in NAFLD remission group, and 184 (23.2%) in sustained NAFLD group. The development of NAFLD increased the risk of incident diabetes by 43% (OR, 1.43; 95%CI, 1.10-1.86) after adjustment for multiple confounders. Compared with sustained NAFLD group, remission of NAFLD reduced the risk of incident diabetes by 52% (OR, 0.48; 95%CI, 0.29-0.80). The effect of NAFLD alteration on incident diabetes was not changed after adjustment for body mass index or waist circumference, change of body mass index or waist circumference. In NAFLD remission group, participants with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) at baseline were more likely to develop diabetes (OR, 3.03; 95%CI, 1.01-9.12).ConclusionsNAFLD development increases the risk of incident diabetes, whereas NAFLD remission reduces the risk of incident diabetes. Moreover, presence of NASH at baseline could attenuate the protective effect of NAFLD remission on incident diabetes. Our study suggests that early intervention of NAFLD and maintenance of non-NAFLD are important for prevention of diabetes.