Despite the importance of functional outcome, only a few scoring systems exist to predict neurologic outcome in meningioma surgery. Therefore, our study aims to identify preoperative risk factors and develop the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) models estimating the risk of a new postoperative neurologic deficit and a decrease in Karnofsky performance status (KPS). A multicentric study was conducted in a cohort of 552 consecutive patients with skull base meningiomas who underwent surgical resection from 2014 to 2019. Data were gathered from clinical, surgical, and pathology records as well as radiological diagnostics. The preoperative predictive factors of functional outcome (neurologic deficit, decrease in KPS) were analyzed in univariate and multivariate stepwise selection analyses. Permanent neurologic deficits were present in 73 (13.2%) patients and a postoperative decrease in KPS in 84 (15.2%). Surgery-related mortality was 1.3%. A ROC model was developed to estimate the probability of a new neurologic deficit (area 0.74; SE 0.0284; 95% Wald confidence limits (0.69; 0.80)) based on meningioma location and diameter. Consequently, a ROC model was developed to predict the probability of a postoperative decrease in KPS (area 0.80; SE 0.0289; 95% Wald confidence limits (0.74; 0.85)) based on the patient’s age, meningioma location, diameter, presence of hyperostosis, and dural tail. To ensure an evidence-based therapeutic approach, treatment should be founded on known risk factors, scoring systems, and predictive models. We propose ROC models predicting the functional outcome of skull base meningioma resection based on the age of the patient, meningioma size, and location and the presence of hyperostosis and dural tail.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10143-023-02004-5.