Simple SummaryThe stalk-eyed seed bugChauliops fallaxis an important agricultural pest of soybean and was first reported to occur outside East Asia. Here, the native evolutionary history, recent invasion history, and potential invasion threats ofC. fallaxwere reported for the first time based on population genetic methods and ecological niche modelling. Four native genetic groups (EA, WE, TL, and XZ) and an east–west differentiation pattern consistent with the geographical characteristics of three-step landforms were well supported in China. The Kashmir sample was found to come from a recent invasion event, and the invasive source was determined to be the populations of the coastal areas of southern China. North America might have high a risk of invasion, which poses a serious threat to local soybean production. Our results provided new insights into the monitoring and management ofChauliops fallaxin the early invasion stage.AbstractThe short stay at the beginning of the invasion process is a critical time for invasive species identification and preventing invasive species from developing a wider distribution and significant economic impact. The stalk-eyed seed bugChauliops fallaxis an important agricultural pest of soybean and was first reported to occur outside East Asia. Here, we reported the native evolutionary history, recent invasion history, and potential invasion threats ofC. fallaxfor the first time based on population genetic methods and ecological niche modelling. The results showed that four native East Asian genetic groups (EA, WE, TL, and XZ) were well supported, showing an east-west differentiation pattern consistent with the geographical characteristics of three-step landforms in China. Two main haplotypes existed: Hap1 might have experienced a rapid northwards expansion process after the LGM period, and Hap5 reflected local adaptation to the environment in southeastern China. The Kashmir sample was found to come from the recent invasion of populations in the coastal areas of southern China. Ecological niche modelling results suggested that North America has a high risk of invasion, which might pose a serious threat to local soybean production. In addition, with future global warming, the suitable habitat in Asia will move towards the higher latitude region and gradually deviate from the soybean planting area, which indicates the threat ofC. fallaxto soybean production in Asia will decrease in the future. The results could provide new insights into the monitoring and management of this agricultural pest in the early invasion stage.