The majority of these existing prognostic models of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) have unsatisfactory prediction accuracy since they solely utilize demographic and clinical information. Leveraged by autophagy-related epigenetic biomarkers, we aim to develop a better prognostic prediction model of HNSCC incorporating CpG probes with either main effects or gene–gene interactions. Based on DNA methylation data from three independent cohorts, we applied a 3-D analysis strategy to develop An independently validated auTophagy-related epigenetic prognostic prediction model of HEad and Neck squamous cell carcinomA (ATHENA). Compared to prediction models with only demographic and clinical information, ATHENA has substantially improved discriminative ability, prediction accuracy and more clinical net benefits, and shows robustness in different subpopulations, as well as external populations. Besides, epigenetic score of ATHENA is significantly associated with tumor immune microenvironment, tumor-infiltrating immune cell abundances, immune checkpoints, somatic mutation and immunity-related drugs. Taken together these results, ATHENA has the demonstrated feasibility and utility of predicting HNSCC survival (http://bigdata.njmu.edu.cn/ATHENA/).Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13148-023-01501-0.