Low levels of plastics circularity today reflect major
challenges
for the sector to reduce environmental impacts and a need for wider
systemic change. In this work, we investigated the potential for climate
and socioeconomic benefits of circular economy (CE) interventions
in the plastic packaging system. By means of a mixed-unit input–output
(IO) model, we performed a comparative scenario analysis for the development
of demand and waste management up to 2030 within the EU-28 (EU27 +
United Kingdom). We modeled the development of material flows and
assessed the effects of both demand-side and end-of-life interventions.
Different levels of ambition toward 2030 based on EU circular economy
strategies were tested. Results showed that on reaching high levels
of circularity, between 14 and 22 Mt CO2-eq/year could
be reduced by 2030 (20–30% of the total sector impact in 2018)
compared to business-as-usual. Demand change (e.g., by decreasing
product packaging intensities) showed similar emission-saving potential
as achieving the current recycling target of 55%, which emphasizes
the role of demand-side actions. Most scenarios displayed moderate
employment gains and potential economic losses, pertaining to both
direct and indirect activity shifts in the economy. While considering
model limitations, the approach is useful in indicating potential
first-order effects of system changes.