BackgroundThe prognostic significance of tumour budding (TB) and minimal cell nest size (MCNS) was shown in human papillomavirus (HPV)-negative head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC). However, the optimisation of cutpoints, the prognostic impact in HPV-positive HNSCC, and the comparison with other histopathological grading systems are insufficiently investigated.MethodsTB and MCNS were analysed digitally in 1 and 10 high-power fields (HPF) of 331 HPV-positive and HPV-negative cases from TCGA. Optimising the cutpoints a new cellular dissociation grading (CDG) system was defined and compared to the WHO grading and the Brandwein–Gensler (BG) risk model.ResultsThe two-tiered CDG system based solely on TB yielded optimal prognostic stratification with shortened overall survival for CDG-high cases. Optimal cut-offs were two buds (1 HPF) and six buds (10 HPF), respectively. Analysing MCNS did not add prognostic significance to quantifying TB. CDG was a significant prognostic marker in HPV-negative and HPV-positive tumours and prognostically superior to the WHO and BG systems. High CDG was associated with clinically occult lymph-node metastases.ConclusionsThe most comprehensive study of TB in HNSCC so far confirmed its prognostic impact in HPV-negative tumours and for the first time in HPV-positive tumours. Further studies are warranted to evaluate its applicability for therapy guidance in HNSCC.