Background:Patients with localized prostate cancer have historically been assigned to clinical risk groups based on local disease extent, serum prostate specific antigen (PSA), and tumor grade. Clinical risk grouping is used to determine the intensity of treatment with external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), yet a substantial proportion of patients with intermediate and high risk localized prostate cancer will develop biochemical recurrence (BCR) and require salvage therapy. Prospective identification of patients destined to experience BCR would allow treatment intensification or selection of alternative therapeutic strategies.Methods:Twenty-nine individuals with intermediate or high risk prostate cancer were prospectively recruited to a clinical trial designed to profile the molecular and imaging features of prostate cancer in patients undergoing EBRT and ADT. Whole transcriptome cDNA microarray and whole exome sequencing were performed on pretreatment targeted biopsy of prostate tumors (n=60). All patients underwent pretreatment and 6-month post EBRT multiparametric MRI (mpMRI), and were followed with serial PSA to assess presence or absence of BCR. Genes differentially expressed in the tumor of patients with and without BCR were investigated using pathways analysis tools and were similarly explored in alternative datasets. Differential gene expression and predicted pathway activation were evaluated in relation to tumor response on mpMRI and tumor genomic profile. A novel TGF-β gene signature was developed in the discovery dataset and applied to a validation dataset.Findings:Baseline MRI lesion volume andPTEN/TP53status in prostate tumor biopsies correlated with the activation state of TGF-β signaling measured using pathway analysis. All three measures correlated with the risk of BCR after definitive RT. A prostate cancer-specific TGF-β signature discriminated between patients that experienced BCR vs. those that did not. The signature retained prognostic utility in an independent cohort.Interpretation:TGF-β activity is a dominant feature of intermediate-to-unfavorable risk prostate tumors prone to biochemical failure after EBRT with ADT. TGF-β activity may serve as a prognostic biomarker independent of existing risk factors and clinical decision-making criteria.Funding:This research was supported by the Prostate Cancer Foundation, the Department of Defense Congressionally Directed Medical Research Program, National Cancer Institute, and the Intramural Research Program of the NIH, National Cancer Institute, Center for Cancer Research.