BackgroundLupus nephritis (LN) is one of the most severe complications of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). However, the current management of LN remains unsatisfactory due to sneaky symptoms during early stages and lack of reliable predictors of disease progression.MethodsBioinformatics and machine learning algorithms were initially used to explore the potential biomarkers for LN development. Identified biomarker expression was evaluated by immunohistochemistry (IHC) and multiplex immunofluorescence (IF) in 104 LN patients, 12 diabetic kidney disease (DKD) patients, 12 minimal change disease (MCD) patients, 12 IgA nephropathy (IgAN) patients and 14 normal controls (NC). The association of biomarker expression with clinicopathologic indices and prognosis was analyzed. Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) and Gene Set Variation Analysis (GSVA) were utilized to explore potential mechanisms.ResultsInterferon-inducible protein 16 (IFI16) was identified as a potential biomarker for LN. IFI16 was highly expressed in the kidneys of LN patients compared to those with MCD, DKD, IgAN or NC. IFI16 co-localized with certain renal and inflammatory cells. Glomerular IFI16 expression was correlated with pathological activity indices of LN, while tubulointerstitial IFI16 expression was correlated with pathological chronicity indices. Renal IFI16 expression was positively associated with systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity index (SLEDAI) and serum creatinine while negatively related to baseline eGFR and serum complement C3. Additionally, higher IFI16 expression was closely related to poorer prognosis of LN patients. GSEA and GSVA suggested that IFI16 expression was involved in adaptive immune-related processes of LN.ConclusionRenal IFI16 expression is a potential biomarker for disease activity and clinical prognosis in LN patients. Renal IFI16 levels may be used to shed light on predicting the renal response and develop precise therapy for LN.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13075-023-03094-8.