BackgroundThe triglyceride glucose index (TyG index) has been regarded as a reliable surrogate marker of insulin resistance and an independent predictor of diabetes. However, few studies have reported the association between the TyG index and diabetes in the elderly population. Accordingly, this study aimed to investigate the association between the TyG index and diabetes progression in elderly Chinese.MethodsBaseline medical history, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), glucose levels during the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) after 1-hour (1h-PG) and 2-hour (2h-PG), and triglyceride (TG) were obtained from a cohort of 862 elderly (aged ≥ 60 years) Chinese in the Beijing urban area between 1998 and 1999. A follow-up visit was conducted between 1998 and 2019 to assess incident diabetes. TyG index was calculated by the following formula ln[TG (mg/dL) × FPG (mg(dL)/2]. The predictive values of TyG index, lipids, and glucose levels during OGTT were assessed alone and also in a clinical prediction model comprising traditional risk factors using concordance index (C-index). Areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUC) and 95% CIs were calculated.ResultsAfter 20 years of follow-up, there were 544 cases of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (63.1% of incidence). The multivariable HRs (95% CI) for TyG index, FPG, 1h-PG and 2h-PG, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-c), and TG were 1.525 (1.290-1.804), 1.350 (1.181-1.544), 1.337 (1.282-1.395), 1.401 (1.327-1.480), 0.505 (0.375-0.681), and 1.120 (1.053-1.192), respectively. The corresponding C-index were 0.623, 0.617, 0.704, 0.694, 0.631, and 0.610, respectively. The AUC (95% CI) for the TyG index, FPG, 1h-PG, 2h-PG, HDL-c, and TG were 0.608 (0.569-0.647), 0.587 (0.548-0.625), 0.766 (0.734-0.797), 0.713 (0.679-0.747), 0.397 (0.358-0.435), and 0.588 (0.549-0.628). The AUC of the TyG index was higher than that of TG but did not differ with FPG and HDL-c. In addition, the AUCs of 1h-PG and 2h-PG were higher than that of the TyG index.ConclusionsElevated TyG index is independently correlated with an increased risk of incident diabetes in the elderly male population, but it is not superior to OGTT 1h-PG and 2h-PG in predicting the risk of diabetes.