BackgroundThe triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index has been recognized as being an alternative cardiometabolic biomarker for insulin resistance associated with the development and prognosis of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the prospective relationship between baseline and long-term trajectories of the TyG index and carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) progression has yet to be investigated.MethodsThis longitudinal prospective cohort study included 10,380 adults with multiple general health checks at Peking University Third Hospital from January 2011 to December 2020. The TyG index was calculated as ln (fasting triglyceride [mg/dL] × fasting glucose [mg/dL]/2). The latent class trajectory modeling method was used to analyze the TyG index trajectories over the follow-up. Based on univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards analyses, hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for the baseline and trajectory of the TyG index.ResultsDuring a median follow-up period of 757 days, 1813 participants developed CAS progression. Each 1-standard deviation (SD) increase in the TyG index was associated with a 7% higher risk of CAS progression after adjusting for traditional CVD risk factors (HR = 1.067, 95% CI 1.006–1.132). Similar results were observed when the TyG index was expressed as quartiles. According to different trajectory patterns, participants were categorized into low-stable, moderate-stable, and high-increasing groups. After multivariate adjustment, the moderate-stable group had a 1.139-fold (95% CI 1.021–1.272) risk of CAS progression. The high-increasing trajectory of the TyG index tended to be associated with CAS progression (HR = 1.206, 95% CI 0.961–1.513).ConclusionsParticipants with higher baseline and moderate-stable trajectory of the TyG index were associated with CAS progression. Long-term trajectories of the TyG index can help to identify individuals at a higher risk of CAS progression who deserve specific preventive and therapeutic approaches.