The weather variations around the world are already having a profound impact on agricultural production. This impacts apple production and the quality of the product. Through agricultural precision, growers attempt to optimize both yield and fruit size and quality. Two experiments were conducted using field-grown “Gala” apple trees in Geneva, NY, USA, in 2021 and 2022. Mature apple trees (Malus×domesticaBorkh. cv. Ultima “Gala”) grafted onto G.11 rootstock planted in 2015 were used for the experiment. Our goal was to establish a relationship between stem water potential (Ψtrunk), which was continuously measured using microtensiometers, and the growth rate of apple fruits, measured continuously using dendrometers throughout the growing season. The second objective was to develop thresholds for Ψtrunkto determine when to irrigate apple trees. The economic impacts of different irrigation regimes were evaluated. Three different water regimes were compared (full irrigation, rainfed and rain exclusion to induce water stress). Trees subjected the rain-exclusion treatment were not irrigated during the whole season, except in the spring (April and May; 126 mm in 2021 and 100 mm in 2022); that is, these trees did not receive water during June, July, August and half of September. Trees subjected to the rainfed treatment received only rainwater (515 mm in 2021 and 382 mm in 2022). The fully irrigated trees received rain but were also irrigated by drip irrigation (515 mm in 2021 and 565 mm in 2022). Moreover, all trees received the same amount of water out of season in autumn and winter (245 mm in 2021 and 283 mm in 2022). The microtensiometer sensors detected differences in Ψtrunkamong our treatments over the entire growing season. In both years, experimental trees with the same trunk cross-section area (TCSA) were selected (23–25 cm−2TCSA), and crop load was adjusted to 7 fruits·cm−2TCSA in 2021 and 8.5 fruits·cm−2TCSA in 2022. However, the irrigated trees showed the highest fruit growth rates and final fruit weight (157 g and 70 mm), followed by the rainfed only treatment (132 g and 66 mm), while the rain-exclusion treatment had the lowest fruit growth rate and final fruit size (107 g and 61 mm). The hourly fruit shrinking and swelling rate (mm·h−1) measured with dendrometers and the hourly Ψtrunk(bar) measured with microtensiometers were correlated. We developed a logistic model to correlate Ψtrunkand fruit growth rate (g·h−1), which suggested a critical value of −9.7 bars for Ψtrunk, above which there were no negative effects on fruit growth rate due to water stress in the relatively humid conditions of New York State. A support vector machine model and a multiple regression model were developed to predict daytime hourly Ψtrunkwith radiation and VPD as input variables. Yield and fruit size were converted to crop value, which showed that managing water stress with irrigation during dry periods improved crop value in the humid climate of New York State.