ObjectiveInterstitial lung disease (ILD) is a common extramuscular manifestation of the anti-synthetase syndrome (ASS). Patients with ASS-ILD are at risk in developing a progressive fibrosing phenotype despite appropriate treatments. This study investigated the risk factors and the predictive value of multiple risk factors for progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) in patients with ASS-ILD.MethodsNinety patients with a diagnosis of ASS and evidence of ILD on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) were recruited. Among them, 72 participants completed follow-up for more than 12 months. These patients were further divided into a PPF-ASS group (n= 18) and a non-PPF-ASS group (n= 54). Logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the risk factors for PPF. The predictive value of the combined risk factors for predicting PPF were analyzed by a ROC curve.ResultsThe PPF-ASS group had a higher rate of positive non-Jo-1 antibodies, a significantly higher neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and a significantly lower PaO2/FiO2ratio and diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO%pred) than the non-PPF-ASS group. In addition, elevated serum Krebs von den Lungen-6 (KL-6) level and reticular opacities were significantly more common, and corticosteroid monotherapy at onset was administered more frequently in the PPF-ASS group. The median duration of follow-up was 37.4 months, survival was poorer in the PPF-ASS group, and the overall survival was 88.9%. Multivariate regression analysis further revealed that positive non-Jo-1 antibodies, NLR, and KL-6 were independent risk factors for PPF. These combined indexes had good accuracy (area under the curve = 0.874) in predicting PPF in patients with ASS-ILD.ConclusionPositive non-Jo-1 antibodies, NLR, and serum KL-6 are independent risk factors for PPF in patients with ASS-ILD. Monitoring these markers can potentially predict PPF in this group of patients.Key Points• Positive non-Jo-1 antibodies, NLR, and serum KL-6 are independent risk factors associated with PPF in patients with ASS-ILD.• Monitoring non-Jo-1 antibodies, NLR, and serum KL-6 can potentially predict PPF in patients with ASS-ILD.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10067-023-06570-3.