Developing radio access technologies that enable reliable and low-latency vehicular communications have become of the utmost importance with the rise of interest in autonomous vehicles. The Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) has developed Vehicle to Everything (V2X) specifications based on the 5G New Radio Air Interface (NR-V2X) to support connected and automated driving use cases, with strict requirements to fulfill the constantly evolving vehicular applications, communication, and service demands of connected vehicles, such as ultra-low latency and ultra-high reliability. This paper presents an analytical model for evaluating the performance of NR-V2X communications, with particular reference to the sensing-based semi-persistent scheduling operation defined in the NR-V2X Mode 2, in comparison with legacy sidelink V2X over LTE, specified as LTE-V2X Mode 4. We consider a vehicle platooning scenario and evaluate the impact of multiple access interference on the packet success probability, by varying the available resources, the number of interfering vehicles, and their relative positions. The average packet success probability is determined analytically for LTE-V2X and NR-V2X, taking into account the different physical layer specifications, and the Moment Matching Approximation (MMA) is used to approximate the statistics of the signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio (SINR) under the assumption of a Nakagami-lognormal composite channel model. The analytical approximation is validated against extensive Matlab simulations that a show good accuracy. The results confirm a boost in performance with NR-V2X against LTE-V2X, particularly for high inter-vehicle distance and a large number of vehicles, providing a concise yet accurate modeling rationale for planning and adaptation of the configuration and parameter setup of vehicle platoons, without having to resort to extensive computer simulation or experimental measurements.