AbstractBackgroundPreoperative prediction of microvascular invasion (MVI) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may optimize individualized treatment decision-making. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic differences between HCC patients undergoing liver resection (LR) and liver transplantation (LT) based on predicted MVI risks.MethodsWe analysed 905 patients who underwent LR, including 524 who underwent anatomical resection (AR) and 117 who underwent LT for HCC within the Milan criteria using propensity score matching. A nomogram model was used to predict preoperative MVI risk.ResultsThe concordance indices of the nomogram for predicting MVI were 0.809 and 0.838 in patients undergoing LR and LT, respectively. Based on an optimal cut-off value of 200 points, the nomogram defined patients as high- or low-risk MVI groups. LT resulted in a lower 5-year recurrence rate and higher 5-year overall survival (OS) rate than LR among the high-risk patients (23.6% vs 73.2%,P<0.001; 87.8% vs 48.1%,P<0.001) and low-risk patients (19.0% vs 45.7%,P<0.001; 86.5% vs 70.0%,P=0.002). The hazard ratios (HRs) of LT vs LR for recurrence and OS were 0.18 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.09–0.37) and 0.12 (95% CI, 0.04–0.37) among the high-risk patients and 0.37 (95% CI, 0.21–0.66) and 0.36 (95% CI, 0.17–0.78) among the low-risk patients. LT also provided a lower 5-year recurrence rate and higher 5-year OS rate than AR among the high-risk patients (24.8% vs 63.5%,P=0.001; 86.7% vs 65.7%,P=0.004), with HRs of LT vs AR for recurrence and OS being 0.24 (95% CI, 0.11–0.53) and 0.17 (95% CI, 0.06–0.52), respectively. The 5-year recurrence and OS rates between patients undergoing LT and AR were not significantly different in the low-risk patients (19.4% vs 28.3%,P=0.129; 85.7% vs 77.8%,P=0.161).ConclusionsLT was superior to LR for patients with HCC within the Milan criteria with a predicted high or low risk of MVI. No significant differences in prognosis were found between LT and AR in patients with a low risk of MVI.