BackgroundNo strong and consistent variables to predict outcome after pain rehabilitation have been reported in patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain. The aim of the present study was to clarify if baseline variables could predict successful outcome after a unique, individualized, physiotherapist-led rehabilitation of nine sessions.MethodsIn 274 individuals with severe chronic musculoskeletal pain, the risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for potentially predictive baseline variables on successful outcomes of pain management, overall health, and pain rating.ResultsStatistically significant results show that patients rating moderate or severe baseline pain were in both cases 14% less likely to improve pain management compared to patients rating mild baseline pain (RR = 0.86; 95% CI 0.77–0.97, RR = 0.86; 95% CI 0.74–1.00). Patients with the shortest pain duration were 1.61 times more likely to improve overall health (RR = 1.61; 95% CI 1.13–2.29) compared to patients reporting the longest pain duration (>5 years). Patients reporting anxiety/depression or severe pain were in both cases 1.48 times more likely to improve overall health compared to better baseline presentations (RR = 1.48; 95% CI 1.16–1.88, RR = 1.48; 95% CI 1.03–2.15). Patients with regional/generalized pain were 36% less likely to rate pain reduction (RR = 0.64; 95% CI 0.41–1.00) compared to patients rating localized baseline pain. Of 17 potentially predictive baseline variables, four reached statistical significance for at least one of the three outcomes; although none of them for all three outcomes.ConclusionsOf 17 potentially predictive baseline variables, mild pain ratings, short pain duration, and localized baseline pain were statistically significantly associated with improvements after individual, physiotherapist-led rehabilitation for patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain. This suggests that this type of rehabilitation probably should be offered early in the pain process. Reporting anxiety/depression or severe pain at the baseline did not hinder the improvements of overall health.