PurposeKnowledge about predictors of return to work (RTW) in people on sick leave with common mental disorders (CMDs) may inform the development of effective vocational rehabilitation interventions for this target group. In this study, we investigated predictors of RTW at 6 and 12 months in people on sick leave with depression, anxiety disorders or stress-related disorders.MethodsWe have performed a secondary analysis, utilizing data from two RCTs that evaluated the efficacy of an integrated health care and vocational rehabilitation intervention. Data were obtained from mental health assessments, questionnaires and registers. Using Cox regression analysis, the relationship between baseline variables and RTW was analysed at 6 and 12 months after randomization within the group of CMD as a whole and within the subgroups of depression, anxiety and stress-related disorders.ResultsSymptom burden and employment status at baseline predicted RTW in the CMD group (n= 1245) and in the three diagnostic subgroups at both time points. RTW self-efficacy predicted RTW in the depression group but not in the anxiety or stress subgroups.ConclusionMany predictors of RTW were similar over time and, to some extent, across the CMD subgroups. Findings highlight the need not only to take health-related and psychological factors into account when developing vocational rehabilitation interventions but also to consider workplace strategies and options for support.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00420-023-01968-7.