The moisture content of pharmaceutical powder is a key parameter contributing to tablet sticking during the tableting process. This study investigates powder moisture behavior during the compaction phase of the tableting process. Finite element analysis software COMSOL Multiphysics®5.6 was used to simulate the compaction microcrystalline cellulose (VIVAPUR PH101) powder and predict temperature and moisture content distributions, as well as their evolution over time, during a single compaction. To validate the simulation, a near-infrared sensor and a thermal infrared camera were used to measure tablet surface temperature and surface moisture, respectively, just after ejection. The partial least squares regression (PLS) method was used to predict the surface moisture content of the ejected tablet. Thermal infrared camera images of the ejected tablet showed powder bed temperature increasing during compaction and a gradual rise in tablet temperature along with tableting runs. Simulation results showed that moisture evaporate from the compacted powder bed to the surrounding environment. The predicted surface moisture content of ejected tablets after compaction was higher compared to that of loose powder and decreased gradually as tableting runs increased. These observations suggest that the moisture evaporating from the powder bed accumulates at the interface between the punch and tablet surface. Evaporated water molecules can be physiosorbed on the punch surface and cause a capillary condensation locally at the punch and tablet interface during dwell time. Locally formed capillary bridge may induce a capillary force between tablet surface particles and the punch surface and cause the sticking.