BackgroundIn critically ill patients, measured creatinine clearance (CrCl) is the most reliable method to evaluate glomerular filtration rate in routine clinical practice and may vary subsequently on a day-to-day basis. We developed and externally validated models to predict CrCl one day ahead and compared them with a reference reflecting current clinical practice.MethodsA gradient boosting method (GBM) machine-learning algorithm was used to develop the models on data from 2825 patients from the EPaNIC multicenter randomized controlled trial database. We externally validated the models on 9576 patients from the University Hospitals Leuven, included in the M@tric database. Three models were developed: a “Core” model based on demographic, admission diagnosis, and daily laboratory results; a “Core + BGA” model adding blood gas analysis results; and a “Core + BGA + Monitoring” model also including high-resolution monitoring data. Model performance was evaluated against the actual CrCl by mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE).ResultsAll three developed models showed smaller prediction errors than the reference. Assuming the same CrCl of the day of prediction showed 20.6 (95% CI 20.3–20.9) ml/min MAE and 40.1 (95% CI 37.9–42.3) ml/min RMSE in the external validation cohort, while the developed model having the smallest RMSE (the Core + BGA + Monitoring model) had 18.1 (95% CI 17.9–18.3) ml/min MAE and 28.9 (95% CI 28–29.7) ml/min RMSE.ConclusionsPrediction models based on routinely collected clinical data in the ICU were able to accurately predict next-day CrCl. These models could be useful for hydrophilic drug dosage adjustment or stratification of patients at risk.Trial registration. Not applicable.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13054-023-04553-z.