The underground pipeline network in the city is so intertwined that the concealed excavation of a metro station inevitably leads to a series of underground pipelines, causing settlement deformation and further risk of leakage. The existing theoretical methods for analysing settlement deformation are mostly for circular chambers, whereas metro stations have a nearly square cross-sectional form and different construction methods are very different, which have a greater impact on the deformation of the overlying pipelines. In this paper, based on the random medium theory and Peck's formula, the improved random medium model for predicting ground deformation is modified, the correction coefficientsλandηfor the influence of different construction methods are proposed, the prediction model of underground pipeline deformation under different construction methods is obtained, and the numerical models of four work methods commonly used in urban tunnel construction: pillar hole method, side hole method, middle hole method and Pile-Beam-Arch (PBA) method are constructed through simulation, and the mathematical analysis software was used to fit the results to the model and obtain the range of correction coefficientsλandηfor each of the four methods, and the accuracy and applicability of the theoretical model was verified by combining with actual engineering cases. The influence on the overlying pipes is in descending order: side hole method, pillar hole method, middle hole method and PBA method. The theoretical model provided in this paper for predicting the deformation of pipes in any overlying strata of the tunnel is well suited to the actual project and has a high degree of correlation with the measured results.