BackgroundAs leading contributors to worldwide morbidity and mortality, sepsis and septic shock are considered a major global health concern. Proactive biomarker identification in patients with sepsis suspicion at any time remains a daunting challenge for hospitals. Despite great progress in the understanding of clinical and molecular aspects of sepsis, its definition, diagnosis, and treatment remain challenging, highlighting a need for new biomarkers with potential to improve critically ill patient management. In this study we validate a quantitative mass spectrometry method to measure circulating histone levels in plasma samples for the diagnosis and prognosis of sepsis and septic shock patients.MethodsWe used the mass spectrometry technique of multiple reaction monitoring to quantify circulating histones H2B and H3 in plasma from a monocenter cohort of critically ill patients admitted to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and evaluated its performance for the diagnosis and prognosis of sepsis and septic shock (SS).ResultsOur results highlight the potential of our test for early diagnosis of sepsis and SS. H2B levels above 121.40 ng/mL (IQR 446.70) were indicative of SS. The value of blood circulating histones to identify a subset of SS patients in a more severe stage with associated organ failure was also tested, revealing circulating levels of histones H2B above 435.61 ng/ml (IQR 2407.10) and H3 above 300.61 ng/ml (IQR 912.77) in septic shock patients with organ failure requiring invasive organ support therapies. Importantly, we found levels of H2B and H3 above 400.44 ng/mL (IQR 1335.54) and 258.25 (IQR 470.44), respectively in those patients who debut with disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC). Finally, a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) demonstrated the prognostic value of circulating histone H3 to predict fatal outcomes and found for histone H3 an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.720 (CI 0.546–0.895) p < 0.016 on a positive test cut-off point at 486.84 ng/mL, showing a sensitivity of 66.7% and specificity of 73.9%.ConclusionsCirculating histones analyzed by MS can be used to diagnose SS and identify patients at high risk of suffering DIC and fatal outcome.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-023-04197-1.