charts, china, china central bank, currencies, dollar, Early Warning, Federal Reserve, King Dollar, shanghai exchange, treasuries, US dollar, vix
bond investors, China sells bonds, china yuan devaluation, dollar distortions, global elites, gold, IMF, plunge protection team, ppt, renminbi, stock market panic, stock market reversal, Trump tariffs, US dollar, vix, Yuan Dollar cross

As some of you may know, the Chinese currency (the Yuan or Renminbi) has been going through a significant devaluation in the last couple weeks — down about 3.5% according to Barron’s ( http://www.barrons.com ) — that is a significant drop for a major currency! Some currency watchers and economists have theorized that the Chinese government is trying to counter-act the Trump  Tariffs by de-valuing their currency. Others have speculated that it’s simply market forces at work, as off-shore Renminbi has fallen in the wake of the collapse of the Chinese stock market….

My own opinion is that it’s probably a combination of the two….

Back in 2015, we also witnessed the Chinese currency come under great pressure–in fact, early that year (and again, later in August 2015), the Chinese officials declared a much lower fixing against the US dollar, and it sent a shock to stock markets around the world….and here we are three years later, and we might be witness to some sort of a repeat…

Back in 2015, I said this on the Forum and later in my blog:

“…The global elites of the largest economies  work together to coordinate Plunge Protection Team (PPT) activities as needed around the world (those being the US, China, Japan and Europe). It is not just a US phenomenon any more, but a truly coordinated, global effort. The vehicle they use to implement PPT policies is mostly in manipulation of currencies.

But things may not work so easily now! You see, President Trump does not consider himself to be part of the Global Elites. His economic policies often contradict the means and ends of the Elites. The IMF, led by Christine Lagarde, and the lead institution of the Elites in controlling world currencies, is stymied by Trump’s actions, imho!

Whereas the IMF and its silent partners in the large central banks would work together in the past to ease the stress on the Chinese currency, we no longer can say this may come to pass. Also, our own central bank, the US Federal Reserve, is now under the control of President Trump, with his appointee, Jay Powell, now in charge over there. There’s no Janet Yellen or Ben Bernanke around to coordinate a global response to a currency crisis.

So, how easily will the FED go along with the other central banks (the ECB, the BOJ and PBOC) and the IMF in working together to ease the pain on the Chinese economy?

I believe that Trump may call out the Chinese authorities if they let their currency fall much further without intervention by the PBOC.  He might well accuse the Chinese of “weaponizing” their currency against the US dollar to overcome his Tariffs. This could create great fallout, and could prevent the Global Elites from coordinating the same rescues that they did in the past to save the Chinese economy.

You see, many Chinese businesses and local governments have accumulated large amounts of debt, and much of that debt is priced in US dollars. Also, many other emerging markets have their debt priced in US dollars too. In a crisis where the Chinese Yuan (and most non-US currencies) are depreciating rapidly, we could witness a massive bailout Chinese businesses using the large reserves that China owns. However, many of these reserves are invested in US Treasuries, so any bailout could lead to selloff in Treasuries as China raises cash.

Now, the Trump administration might give in to these global economic pressures and he might take the foot off the accelerator before things get too bad. This is, after all, a worse case scenario, and those rarely come to pass– but that doesn’t mean we may not see some panic in the near term!

So, what effect will this have on US stocks, should this come to pass? I think the short answer is that the picture would not be pretty for investors! For stock traders, shorting the market might be a successful strategy once the chart signals appear…and the use of the Vix products (financial volatility instruments ) to hedge portfolios or even profit off the situation might work.

And what about bond investors? Well, the short answer, unless the Chinese threaten “the nuclear option” of dumping US Treasuries, (which would be suicidal for them too), is that US Treasuries would be a safe haven during this affair, I would think.

The big question mark here are the gold traders. After all, a stronger dollar would mean a weaker gold price ordinarily. However, in a panic situation, the price of gold can remain stable or even rise against the dollar as gold becomes treated as an alternative currency and that currency might become “safer” than the dollar. Whether that happens or not, once the Trump administration blinks or once the Chinese back down, and everyone comes to terms, then gold may well rally with a weakening dollar in the compromise period after the crisis passes.

At any rate, things could get very interesting this 4th of July week, which is normally a quiet period for the US markets…but let’s remember one thing: US Independence Day is not a holiday in China or any of the Far East nations. If  they are about to suffer a currency crisis, the calendar may not save them. And quite literally, the Trump administration and average Americans will be off to their mid-summer vacations while the real fireworks could quite literally be going off in other parts of the world and perhaps no one from the Trump administration will be willing to call off their vacation to stop the hemorrhaging? bear market, bearish, bull market, Dow chart, Dow Industrials, fed, index, overbought stocks, Quantitative Tightening, RSI, volatility
Dow in 2018, Dow industrials, Dow predictions, federal reserve, market volatility, quantitative tightening, stock market, US markets

New Year’s Day always leads me to want to pull out the old crystal ball and try to make a stock market prediction for 2018.  To make this exercise simple, and understandable for most readers, I decided to focus on what the Dow Jones Industrial Index could do in 2018.

After all, when the general population thinks  about the US stock markets, they often refer to the Dow index.

Stock Market Prediction for the Dow

Right now, the Dow is very overbought on the RSI-9 graph of the monthly chart which is of concern to me. Of course, when a market is trending, the RSI can remain overbought for a very long time. RSI tells us that the overbought market is due for a correction, but it can’t really tell us WHEN that will happen.

The MACD histo bars (9,20,7) have leveled off somewhat from the spring of 2017. However, they remain steadfastly in positive territory. So there are no sell signals yet. Again, I refer to the monthly chart for this observation.

Corrective Bases

Consider the long period of expansion (endless rallies) since the last serious corrective base. The last deep base (a 20% bearish correction or more) was in the period of 2008 to 2012. So, since 2012,  the Dow has been on a steady course higher.  Five straight years with only minor pullbacks! To simply make a stock market prediction of more of the same would seem the easy way to forecast events in the new year. After all, trend is a powerful force in the stock market, as we have seen time and time again.

One thing in favor of the Bulls is that the last corrective base ( in 2008-2012) was a base re-set since the low of the base was lower than the previous large base (from the dot-com era). Those base re-sets can sometimes mean that the next corrective base won’t be so bad. This remains to be seen, of course, but I thought I would mention it. Another thing to consider is that the current bull market is nearly the longest in US history.

A Hawkish Fed in 2018

The US stock market has been supported by easy money policies at the Federal Reserve for several years. Now, the FED will be going through some serious quantitative tightening in 2018 with the sales of bonds held by the FED. The Fed is also expected to continue hiking interest rates. So we will have a double whammy from the FED in 2018! Can the economy withstand this double hit?

Perhaps the new tax reform which takes effect today could continue to drive the US economy forward, despite the hawkish Fed? We shall see.

Political Uncertainty

There is also a great amount of political uncertainty both at home and abroad. Instability in Washington is just as worrisome to some investors as is the unrest overseas. The feud between Democrats and Republicans and even within the parties is about as bad as I can remember. Then toss in the issues we might face with North Korea or in the Middle East, and the stock market could get quite shaken up at some point.

Stock Market Prediction Timetable

My own prediction is that the Dow will take a serious hit sometime in 2018.  I think the period of spring and summer might be most vulnerable for various reasons. The Dow might re-cover some by late this year once the frothiness has been removed from the market. Yet overall, I expect the Dow to finish lower by around 15% compared to the 24,719 mark as of the last day of 2017.

So, my prediction is the Dow will finish at around 20,500 to 21,000 but we could see a mid-year dip that takes the Dow as low as the top of the brief early 2016 correction which was at around 18,300 or so.

January Often Sets the Tone

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the month of January set the stage for a rougher year.  I expect greater volatility and some profit-taking in the early part of the new year. Take a look at the chart  down at the bottom of this blog. The Dow is about as high above the 50 day line (percentage-wise) as we have seen in a long time. The daily RSI is extended into a very long period of being overbought (above 70).

It’s often said that January sets the tone for the US markets. So if we get a rough start in January, that could lead to the negative results I expect for the year overall.

Of course, predictions a year out are not easy to make. I looked at some of my 2017 predictions in the category marked 2017 Predictions by Members on the Talking Stocks Forum . I can see I was off quite a bit on most predictions. 2017 turned out to be quite a bullish year, and quite unexpected in some ways, and with very little volatility.

I have a hard time believing that we can have two years straight of low volatility!  So, I am betting on a more volatile market in 2018 and lower finish by year end.

Anyone else care to make a prediction?   Please click on the reply button to make your own comments.

Dow Jones Industrials ($INDU) Daily Chart September 17, 2017
bear market, bearish, Credit crisis, credit lines, deflation, deflation in US, Early Warning, indicators, lead indicator, recession, selloff, signal, stocks, velocity of money
EFX, Equifax, recession, slow credit expansion, slow loan growth, trigger recession

Here’s another under-the-radar BIGGIE that a lot of people may be missing, and it could spell disaster for the economy and stocks….

As you probably know, EQUIFAX ( NYSE: EFX ) suffered a huge breach of its database that compromised almost every adult American’s identity, and my fear is that this could trigger a recession!

Now, here’s the interesting part from an investor’s perspective: many, many people are putting on CREDIT FREEZES to their accounts, which basically means that they are preventing any new credit lines or credit accounts from being opened in their name. Many news websites and financial advisors are telling people to do this.

The theory of the Profitskey.com is that this could slow up loan growth by several percentage points in the coming weeks and months, and slower loan growth means that money acceleration into the economy will slow and even suffer decreases! I just saw a statistic in BARRON’s ( http://www.barrons.com ) that shows that Federal Reserve created credit in the US economy had slowed  to just 3.5% from 5% last year ( See the Randall Forsyth column) …and this CREDIT FREEZE pandemonium could bring credit growth to a GRINDING HALT!

Sure, if someone wants to take out a new loan or credit card account, they could call the credit bureau company (if they can figure out which one will affect their loan — there are 3 major credit bureaus to call) and ask to un-freeze their account for a short while. But my theory is a lot of people will not want to deal with that hassle…and many are scared to death to un-freeze their accounts anyway for fear of being violated by a hacker. Also, in many states, there is a charge for each time a person freezes and un-freezes their account, and so many people will not want to bother with those charges for a quick loan or credit card account.   END RESULT: A significant slowdown in new auto loans, credit card accounts, and other loans like home equity.

Lest anyone is naive enough to believe that our economy’s growth doesn’t thrive and survive on CREDIT EXPANSION, this could be the perfect storm to cause a RECESSION! Look, if credit expansion slows just 3.5% from current levels, that would be enough to tip our US economy into contraction. In other words, it will not take a lot to slow down our economy into a stall speed. The velocity of money within our semi-fragile economy could go negative, and with negative velocity of money, then earnings will dry up! Earnings are “the mother’s milk of profits” in a free market economy…. corrections, ETFs, Fed dot plot, Federal Reserve, selloff, short hedge strategy, Special Category ETFs, vix, volatility
double bottom, federal reserve, iPath Volatility, market protection, stock market protection, stock market reversal, vix, vxx, winds war

Today, I bought 3 VXX Sept 20th $20 call contracts a short time ago. By all appearances, though not yet confirmed, the iPath VXX ETN appears to be at a double bottom.  The current price is in the high $16’s, so I would need to see about a 25% spike in the VXX to get this one in the money. Historically, VXX has rallied as much as 100% in some significant corrections….and even on a relatively minor correction, it has shown the ability to rally about 25%, at the least.

Take a look at the VXX daily chart (shown at the bottom of this blog post)….it appears to be at a double bottom today…but of course, the double bottom is not YET confirmed. If the price breaks much below the horizontal blue-dashed line at about $16.76, then the double bottom would be a false conclusion….especially if it closes below that line.

Also, I looked at the SCTR score on VXX…it is at the absolutely lowest level on that measure at 0.1….it can’t get any worse than that! (The Stock Charts website owns the formula and patent for the SCTR measures at http://www.stockcharts.com  .) So, on a relative basis to other stocks, the VXX is a screaming bargain, it seems…

Now granted, the VXX and its cousins such as UVXY and TVIX (I know there are others, I just can’t think of them right now)…are ETFs that de-grade over time, especially in a flat or rising stock market. So, in some ways, the lower SCTR score would be the norm any way….

But a SCTR at 0.1 is suggesting that at some time in the future, it’s got to get a lot better than this? At least for a spell…

By extending out to mid-September on the purchase of my call contracts, I can let these pups sit in my portfolio for many months, assuming they don’t degrade too quickly in price, which could only happen if the market keeps rising and investors get too complacent. These VXX calls can act as an anchor against some of my long trades….and, at least compared to recent history, the price on these calls are very cheap right now….and that’s when you want to own them, imho…when they are cheap!

So, they can act as cheap portfolio insurance — of course, going out to September is also taking advantage of annual cyclical moves, as the stock market often swoons in late summer and into September, which is historically the worse month for the stock market…

I may pick up a couple more of these VXX calls, should the double bottom not hold…and if it does hold, at least I have a good foothold with 3 contracts today. If somehow, the price jumps 40% from here to late August, I would stand to make about a $180 profit per contract, or close to a $550 gain on these 3 contracts. I don’t have too many long positions right now (I am actually short some specific stock names like SHLD and VRX currently), but someone with a larger long positon might consider more contracts than this.

So, what could cause a stock market correction? Seemingly any number of things! We have the FED meeting coming up in the next two  days, and how will they word future interest rate increases? And the debt ceiling debate is starting to come into focus, and the Republican Party seems to be quite fractious when it comes to this subject, so don’t expect an easy push to raise the limit, in my opinion. Then there is the high valuation of the current stock market, and perhaps too much optimism by investors as to how quickly Trump can get things moving?

Also, there is much divisiveness in the communities of our country– it seems about as divided as it was in the pre-Civil War days, but only the haves versus the have-nots (rather than the North vs. the South). But even if one believes the  market can look past all of these threats, then one should still respect that our current market valuations seem to be pricing in perfection.  Just one big “slip up” is all it takes to send stocks tumbling, in my humble opinion.

I am not a registered  financial advisor, and so these are only one person’s opinions. You should always consult a licensed RIA or licensed stock broker before investing or acting on any trades.

VXX daily chart Vix futures at double bottom? See VXX

credit lines, dollar, european banks, European Central Bank (ECB), fed, Federal Reserve, financials, gold
credit suisse, derivatives, deutsche bank, EU, european banks, fed, gold

The real center of the financial storm is with Europe’s banks and financial institutions…and the very center of this storm lies in Frankfurt, Germany, home to Duetsche Bank (NYSE: DB) which is said to have a large book of derivatives that dwarfs the size of the bank’s assets.  I have read from at least two sources that the total notional value of the derivatives book of Deutsche Bank is quite large–very large and possibly unmanageable in a crisis.

But first, let’s digress a moment to the Brexit event that happened last Friday morning. From what I am reading in Barron’s (www.barrons.com) and other financial news sites this weekend, it seems that with Prime Minister Cameron resigning under pressure, that a new coalition government will form in the coming weeks that will represent the new will of the people.

In the Parliamentary system, change can happen much faster than it does here with our Congressional and Executive government system….

So, I think it’s unlikely that Parliament will refuse to carry out the wishes of their electorate….unless the economy gets so bad and the citizens ask for another vote….but things will have to get bad first, in my humble opinion.

As for the markets tumbling, that has more to do with the Euro countries and with the banking system in Europe. In other words, it’s not the UK’s exit that has investors on pins and needles, but it’s the EU that is at the center of the crisis.

With the UK vote in favor of exit, this will de-stabilize Europe and so we are likely to learn that countries like Spain, Greece and Italy will also want to exit so they can escape the onerous rules that the EU has imposed on their growth due to high debt problems…

In other words, should this crisis get out of hand, then DB may not be able to honor its derivatives trades–just as AIG could not honor its derivatives trades back in 2008 and only when the US government bailed out AIG, was the world saved from a calamity!

Now, DB is said to be in a similar tight spot as was AIG, except that the trigger event has not yet happened for DB, but it’s much closer today than it was last Thursday before the Brexit results were known. There is no known crisis yet (and so I don’t want to sound alarmist), but the worry is that this could get out of hand before DB or other banks can safely unwind their derivatives positions.

So, if DB runs into deep trouble, will the EU central bank come to the rescue? What about other large banks with large derivatives positions?

I don’t think the EU has enough assets to pull off a meaningful bailout….the FED doesn’t have the fire power either, nor would it attempt a rescue of a foreign bank for political reasons….the only possible savior would be the IMF and the World Bank, which is the only world bank that still has a pristine balance sheet. But how much damage might occur before the emergency response is acted upon?

AND what happens to the current two top reserve currencies, the dollar and the Euro, should the IMF have to bail out the European banking system?

Will the counter-parties to DB and CS’s derivatives also collapse?….after all, JPM, Citi and BAC, GS and MS (all US based banks)hold many of the counter-party trades to those swaps, options and futures held in Europe. Could the US dollar also collapse in such a scenario? If so, would the IMF make the SDR the new global currency?

I don’t claim to know the answer to that one (yet), but I do think owning some gold can soften the blow, should this selloff escalate faster than many experts are predicting!
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