The Great Moderation: Technology and Monetary Policy

Posted by Will Hambly at 12:03 PM 2 comments Labels: great moderation, monetary policy, technology

Thursday, July 09, 2009

reCAPTCHA's Business Model Here are two examples from reCAPTCHA's website.

Original scanned image: Posted by Will Hambly at 8:02 PM 3 comments Labels: business model

Wednesday, July 01, 2009

GM's Press Release: $1 Handle is Too High Posted by Will Hambly at 9:49 PM 0 comments Thursday, June 25, 2009

When Data is the Asset: DemandBase Posted by Will Hambly at 10:21 PM 5 comments Labels: marketing Posted by Will Hambly at 10:42 PM 0 comments Labels: fed funds, inflation

Monday, June 22, 2009

The U.S. Current Account Deficit: Domestic and International Effects

Posted by Will Hambly at 10:38 PM 1 comments Labels: global imbalances, writing sample

Will Hambly Resume

Posted by Will Hambly at 11:57 AM 0 comments Labels: resume "will hamby", will hambly resume

Friday, May 08, 2009 Posted by Will Hambly at 11:08 AM 0 comments Labels: business model, contentisking, murdoch, newscorp

Monday, April 27, 2009

In Chipotle We Trust Posted by Will Hambly at 11:18 AM 0 comments Labels: chipotle mexican grill, cmg

Skittles' Social Media Strategy Posted by Will Hambly at 10:35 AM 0 comments Labels: advertising, media, skittles, twitter, web

TurboTax's Twitter Campaign Posted by Will Hambly at 10:19 PM 0 comments Labels: intuit, twitter

Interactive vs. Static Media Spending

While the U.S. advertising market may be struggling as a whole, largely a result of the contraction in consumer spending and a reduction in advertising budgets, there are a few bright spots.  Not surprisingly, the segment expected to grow the fastest this year is highly interactive and embraces my community concept: social networking.  Interactive online advertising on social networks and videos is expected to grow by 25% this year, bucking the overall downward trend in advertising spending seen during the current economic contraction.  The eMarketer report also highlights search and video game advertising, which the research firm expects to grow by 8% and 20% respectively.  The growth in video game advertising makes good sense. Many hard-core consumers spend a decent part of their day engaged in these virtual worlds and the venues are highly interactive, contributing to a sense of immediacy with the products advertisers are promoting.  In contrast to the growing interactive media space is print journalism which is experiencing declines across the board, which is obviously part of the recession but I also believe is a secular trend away from static media.
The message is clear: media that embraces and offers relevant and immediate information to consumers in a community format is engaging consumers and the advertising dollars naturally follow. Posted by Will Hambly at 9:34 AM 2 comments Labels: advertising, media, social networks

The Problem for the News Media Isn't Just Revenue

While it is true that traditional sources of revenue for newspapers are drying up, the core problem affecting the news industry isn’t revenue—it is consumer choice.  The conventional wisdom about the newspaper business is that if papers could just find a new advertising model or creative way to monetize users, their problems would be solved.  While a healthy revenue stream is vital to the long run success of any venture, the problem facing news media is much greater than simply better monetizing users.  The challenge is to continue to attract a greater number of users and convince them to spend more of their scarce time and valuable personal information on the site.  Satisfying these criteria will ultimately breed innovative revenue streams.  Consumers are voting with their clicks: web users overwhelming prefer to spend their time at social networking properties like Facebook rather than on news sites.  Driving this shift in where people are spending their time are three key trends affecting both news media and the web as a whole: relevancy, immediacy, and community. 1. Relevancy—For the average web user, only a small portion of the content on major news sites is relevant or important to her daily life.  This is a fact both online and offline: news and happenings about our friends and family generally command far more of our attention than general news.
2. Immediacy—Users want content that is published in real-time.  Many news readers prefer the web because content is less dated than in print, but unfortunately for many publishers, even publishing on the web still isn’t fast enough for many users.  Services like Twitter and Facebook publish “news” (OK, it’s not really substantive news, but I will leave it up to the consumer to determine product quality) in a near real-time
as event occur.
3. Community—News sites like the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and CNN.com strive to create a community around the news they publish.  Features like the ability to add comments to articles and share with friends via email strive to create a sense of community, however fall miserably short.  Readers want honest and genuine interaction with both authors and each other. When was the last time you saw a NYT reporter respond to comments on her article?  It’s very rare.  In an effort to create community on its cable news programs, CNN has even begun to expose Twitter responses to topics and opinions discussed by commentators. Community matters and is a key requirement for helping people decide where to spend their time online.  Social networks by nature satisfy the community criteria very well. How are traditional news papers and even online news sources faring in the battle for readers’ time and attention?  Web users spend over 10x the amount of time on Facebook and Myspace than on traditional online news sources.  The data below compares Yahoo News, the Wall Street Journal, CNN.com, and the New York Times to social networking sites Facebook and Myspace (Source: Compete.com).  During February 2009, U.S. internet users spent 5.9% of their time on Facebook and only 0.7% of their time on Yahoo News, the Wall Street Journal, CNN.com, and the New York Times combined.  While it is true that major news sites have increased their share of user attention on their properties by increasing the immediacy of their content (mostly through blogs) and community features, these sites will not achieve the same share of users time and attention compared to sites exclusively focused on social interactions.  What does this mean for the publishing industry and the news media business overall?  Advertising dollars are limited and marketers will allocate them toward the most productive venues, which judging by user preference, will not be traditional news media for the forseeable future.

Posted by Will Hambly at 4:09 PM 5 comments Labels: facebook, media, myspace, publishing, twitter

Media News Group's I-News As revenues slide, staffs dwindle, and traditional business models erode, the Media News Group is announcing a service that is calls “individuated news.” The news service, dubbed “I-News,” involves choosing the type of content you want to read and installing a bulky piece of hardware in your living room to print the news. I-News is a desperate solution to the news publishing industry’s wretched state. You have to give the Media News Group some credit for trying, but not much. The advent of RSS feeds and products like Netvibes and Google Reader make I-News completely irrelevant. In fact, if you’re determined to have your customized news actually look like a paper, that product already exists--it’s called Tabbloid and is from HP Labs. I am loath to offer such criticism without proposing a solution. The Media News Group is reacting to the current state of their business as if it were a cyclical downturn. While problems facing the print media industry have intensified during the current economic contraction, issues facing the Media News Group and the entire industry are part of a new reality and different set of assumptions under which they must operate. Rather than providing a service like I-News, the Media News Group would better position itself by moving entirely online and providing a hyper-local view of the news. By focusing on a specific industry, issue, or theme and having content written by participants with unique or expert perspectives, local papers could get an edge over national publishers and bloggers alike. This shift is something the San Jose Mercury News, located in the heart of Silicon Valley, was uniquely positioned to do, yet the paper ignored the opportunity and continued to print general business news syndicated from major papers.

Posted by Will Hambly at 11:45 AM 3 comments Labels: i-news, inews, media, tabbloid

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Outsourcing Journalism: Pasadena Now Goes "Glocal" The local online-only newspaper, Pasadena Now, created an uproar when it revealed that a preponderance of its content is created not in sunny Pasadena, but over 8,000 miles away in Mumbai, India.  Protectionists and traditional journalists were aghast at the revelation of outsourced journalism.  Pasadena Now, which covers local news and politics, human interest stories, and community events, is written by a team of writers who don’t even consider themselves to be journalists, a fact made obvious their prose.  James MacPherson, the editor in chief and owner of the website, considers himself a pioneer in a low cost content sourcing model that he calls “glocal.”  Indian reporters source stories from local websites, event calendars, and city council minutes, creating what amounts to surprisingly comprehensive coverage.  Pulitzers are certainly not in the offing for these reporters, but for a local daily, the content is concise and relevant to city happenings. A competing newspaper’s editor, Larry Wilson of the Pasadena Star News volunteered some disparaging comments about Pasadena Now’s “glocal” outsourcing journalism model: “To pretend you can get the feel and the culture of a town as complicated and interesting as Pasadena by e-mailing and doing things over the Internet is nutty.”  Mr. Wilson has a right to be livid.  While the quality of content on Pasadena Now is undoubtedly lower than that of his paper and other locally written dailies, the average "Joe-Six-Pack" (if he reads at all) can’t tell the difference.  Journalism outsourcing is here to stay, especially as consumer demands force content online, where advertising rates are far lower than print.
Outsourcing journalism is nothing new--Bloomberg and Reuters have been taking advantage of the labor arbitrage opportunity for years with their financial reporting.  MacPherson’s “glocal” model is new and important for the publishing industry, however, because it represents such an aggressive move to lower costs as content moves online.  Many papers have pursued an online strategy to maintain solvency and adapt with the times, but the shift to the web and lowering labor costs is no panacea.
Publishers must compete for users’ attention to justify current advertising rates.  The shift online is just one step toward a viable strategy that papers such as the New York Times have fully embraced.  What papers should be worried about, however, isn’t whether or not they can transition their businesses to the web--this is a prerequisite for their coming challenge.  The paramount concern of publishers should be the obvious growing user preference for a product that is cheaper to produce and that many users find more engaging: social media.  The graph below shows the percentage of time U.S. internet users spent on the Wall Street Journal online, New York Times online, and Facebook. The Wall Street Journal and the New York Times together make up only 0.2% of the average users’ time online, while Facebook accounts for a staggering 5% (Source: compete.com).  With content produced for free by social networking users and users spending more time on those sites, the traditional online business model for newspapers is seriously at risk.  Expect more citizen journalism and for successful papers to transform themselves into social contribution systems rather than uni-directional news sources.

Posted by Will Hambly at 9:56 PM 2 comments Labels: journalism, journalism outsourcing, outsourcing journalism, pasadena now

Did the Social Networking Bubble Pop?

Last week, Twitter raised $35 million from venture capital firms Benchmark and Institutional Venture Partners in deal that valued the micro-blogging service at what is rumored to be an impressive $250 million.  While a quarter billion dollars for a nascent firm with no revenues to speak of might seem like a staggering sum, by industry standards, it appears perfectly rational. With 6 million users, Benchmark and IVP paid roughly $42 per Twitter user, slightly less than Murdoch’s NewsCorp paid for Facebook users back in 2005, before social networking was the buzzword du jour.  Microsoft’s $240 million infusion into Facebook, however came at an irrationally exuberant price of $85 per user.  Given Twitter’s growth in unique visitors of over 800% comparing annual figures, the Twitter valuation begins to make even more sense.  At some point these businesses will have to generate significant revenues to justify the lofty expectations investors have placed on them, but don't expect the answer to be advertising. Posted by Will Hambly at 10:27 PM 0 comments Labels: business model, facebook, myspace, twitter, valuation

Facebook's About-Face: Data Grab II In a dramatic reversal of direction, Facebook has pledged to amend its user agreement after inciting user uproar related to its new Terms of Service (TOS).  On the Facebook blog, Zuckerberg explained, "Over the past couple of days, we received a lot of questions and comments about the changes and what they mean for people and their information. Based on this feedback, we have decided to return to our previous terms of use while we resolve the issues that people have raised."
What this change makes clear is that from a public relations and communications perspective, users are king in the land of Facebook—users’ status in the legal world is still to be decided.  The group, "People Against the New Terms of Service (TOS)" now boasts nearly 88K members, with over 1,300 comments in opposition to the company's efforts to control and own user data.  The issues over Facebook's terms of service, however, underscore a paradox at the crux of Facebook's business model.
While the company is pressured by investors and management to better monetize its user base (after all it is a profit-making enterprise), aggressive efforts to monetize users are met with fierce opposition.  Many users are loath to have Facebook use their personal information for marketing purposes. Yet this data is Facebook's only real unique asset, and any meaningful economic profits will likely come from manipulating, sharing, and storing user data.  The company is obviously aware of this paradox, which is reflected in a communications strategy in which the lawyers act as the aggressors by putting more teeth in the TOS and Zuckerberg placates users with friendly language on his blog, rhapsodizing about "principles" and "philosophy."  In the end, this strategy conceals changes made to the TOS and keeps users happy by making them feel like they have been heard from and respected by management.  This is nothing new from Facebook, as a similar strategy was used in rolling out the NewsFeed functionality, which was also met with user protest.

Posted by Will Hambly at 9:40 AM 0 comments Labels: business model, facebook, privacy

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Facebook's Data Grab Facebook’s aggressive change to its terms of service this week has a created a brouhaha of massive proportions.  A normally acquiescent user base that is loath to privacy controls has become irate over changes made to the user agreement. At the heart of the controversy is strengthened language declaring Facbook’s ownership and license to your information.  The new terms of service grant the company a “perpetural wordwide license” to make use of your personal content.  It omits a clause from the previous TOS stating that deactivating one’s account is tantamount to revoking the license granted to Facebook.  As of this morning, a movement in opposition of the new user agreement had amassed over 30K members, growing at an astounding 100 new members per minute.
The issue has even received attention from Mark Zuckerberg, who posted on the topic in an effort to quell the uproar from users.  Zuckerberg explains, “Our philosophy is that people own their information and control who they share it with.  In reality, we wouldn't share your information in a way you wouldn't want.”  Newsflash: Philosophy differs from legalese.  The TOS is an affront to user rights and ownership over their original content.  While Zuckerberg has attempted to make the language more palatable, the legal reality is that users no longer control the use of their content while using the service and after deactivating their accounts.
The change in the terms of service and the outcome of the user revolt is significant because it emanates from a growing concern for Facebook--how to monetize users and justify what was once a $15 billion valuation for the company.  With a valuation of that magnitude, Facebook would sell for nearly 50 times 2008 revenue, a preposterous multiple.  The company is under pressure from financiers to monetize their 50 million active users and over 40 monthly billion pageviews.  With a business model where data is their primary asset, expect user information to be more tightly guarded by the company.  As business models develop that involve demographic profiling, targeted advertising, selling user profiles, and cookie-sharing emerge, the company must solidify its hold on the only unique asset it owns—user information.

Posted by Will Hambly at 11:41 AM 2 comments Labels: business model, data is an asset, facebook

Twitter's Business Model Twitter is old news to technophiles, but the micro-blogging service that has been around since 2006, has recently received a tremendous amount of attention in the media.  In a flurry of articles and predictions, we learned last week that the 29 employee firm, with no revenues to speak of, carries a valuation of approximately $250 million.  What is even more remarkable is that Facebook purportedly offered $500 million for the company earlier this year.  What gives?
The usefulness of Twitter is subtle at first but its appeal is obvious.  In short 140-character snippets, the service allows you to send messages to your friends, or those that have opted-in to hear your tweets.  Think of it like a text message that gets sent to your entire phone book, except your friends choose to be in your phone book or not. Twitter has grown to an estimated 55 million daily users because it is simple and rejects the cluttered and bloated functionality that sabotages many web services.  In addition, it relies on friends op
ting-in rather than opting-out for communications.  This lets users select whom they’d like to hear from, not visa-versa.  Lastly, Twitter is noncommittal—you aren’t obliged to respond to tweets, but can merely enjoy the ebullient flow of information, acting on it when you like.
So it’s a great service, but why are venture capitalists willing to pay an implied $250 million for the company when it hasn’t attempted to earn a dime in revenue?  Fred Wilson, of Union Square Ventures, an early investor in Twitter explains, “You can't monetize web services very well until you have an audience of scale…every ounce of time, energy, money, and brainpower you spend on thinking about how to monetize will take you away from the goal of getting to scale.  Because if you don't get to scale, you don't have a business anyway.”
But how exactly will Twitter make money?  After all, the company has consumed a tremendous amount of resources (venture capital) and we expect to see economic value from it.  Here are some of the ways I expect Twitter to monetize its users:
1. Business User Accounts: A recent phenomenon is that companies are turning to Twitter as a way to connect with customers and promote themselves on the web.  Sign up for Twitter and you will find plenty of corporate “friends” to follow, whose tweets are mostly spam.  Twitter can charge businesses to use the service to communicate with customers. 2. Pay Per Lead: Twitter recently released new functionality that allows you to pick from suggested people to follow.  Companies will pay to have people enjoy their ambient presence by subscribing to their tweets.  This will generate click-throughs and potentially sales.
3. Advertising: Injecting relevant advertising into tweet feeds could garner some click-throughs, but certainly not enough to warrant a $250M valuation.
So what does this all amount to?  None of the business models described could compel a venture capitalist to offer $250 million for the company.  Twitter has something else up its sleeve.  The web service taps into the ambient desires, life-events, and the emotions of its users.  Users volunteer to share this intimate information with their friends.  These intentions and personal moments are far more valuable than cold hearted search terms that are plugged into the likes of Google and Yahoo everyday.  The Twitter opportunity is to tap into genuine needs, feelings, and human interactions--a hundred-billion dollar bonanza for marketers.

Posted by Will Hambly at 10:35 PM 0 comments Labels: business model, twitter, venture capital

Friday, February 06, 2009

Cato's Reaction to the Stimulus Package The Cato Institute, a prominent libertarian think tank, recently lambasted President Obama with a full-page advertisement appearing in the New York Times, the Washington Post, and other national publications. The Cato ad takes specific issue with an Obama statement made in early January aimed to accelerate the legislative process and convince Congress to eschew the partisan differences to pass the stimulus package quickly.

To Obama’s chagrin, over 240 economists gathered by Cato disagree with Obama’s assertion that “there is no disagreement that we need action by our government, a recovery plan that will help to jumpstart the economy.” It is not surprising that the Cato Institute and other free market thinkers find fault with the stimulus package, officially known as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, as the bill contains hundreds of billions of dollars in spending that will expand the size of the Federal government.

While expanding the size of the federal government over the long run is a dangerous plan and will fail to contribute to economic growth, in the short run, the increase in government spending may be exactly what it will require to restart America’s economic engine. In an environment where consumers have little spending power and firms are hesitant to invest in new capital equipment, the only participant in our economy with the ability to spend may be the Federal government. While the stimulus package includes many questionable investments and is certain to cost future taxpayers dearly, the risk of inaction is far higher.
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