claim: Your odds of correctly guessing the outcome of a flipped coin are 1 in 2, but your odds of guessing correctly twice in a row are only 1 in 4 —
evidence: Since the first four tosses turn up heads, the probability that the next toss is a head is: Pr ( A 5 | A 1 ∩ A 2 ∩ A 3 ∩ A 4 ) = Pr ( A 5 ) = 1 2 {\displaystyle \Pr \left(A_{5}|A_{1}\cap A_{2}\cap A_{3}\cap A_{4}\right)=\Pr \left(A_{5}\right)={\frac {1}{2}}} .
category: Gambler's fallacy