We propose the use of a stochastic variational frame prediction deep neural network with a learned prior distribution trained on two-dimensional rain radar reflectivity maps for precipitation nowcasting with lead times of up to 2 1 2 hours. We present a comparison to a standard convolutional LSTM network and assess the evolution of the structural similarity index for both methods. Case studies are presented that illustrate that the novel methodology can yield meaningful forecasts without excessive blur for the time horizons of interest.
Here we adopt a slight modification of the methodology proposed in @cite_13 , see also @cite_8 @cite_1 for similar approaches. In particular, we train a stochastic variational autoencoder-like architecture with a learned prior distribution.
@cite_1 @cite_13 @cite_8
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Being able to predict what may happen in the future requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and causal rules that govern the world. A model that is able to do so has a number of appealing applications, from robotic planning to representation learning. However, learning to predict raw future observations, such as frames in a video, is exceedingly challenging -- the ambiguous nature of the problem can cause a naively designed model to average together possible futures into a single, blurry prediction. Recently, this has been addressed by two distinct approaches: (a) latent variational variable models that explicitly model underlying stochasticity and (b) adversarially-trained models that aim to produce naturalistic images. However, a standard latent variable model can struggle to produce realistic results, and a standard adversarially-trained model underutilizes latent variables and fails to produce diverse predictions. We show that these distinct methods are in fact complementary. Combining the two produces predictions that look more realistic to human raters and better cover the range of possible futures. Our method outperforms prior and concurrent work in these aspects. Generating video frames that accurately predict future world states is challenging. Existing approaches either fail to capture the full distribution of outcomes, or yield blurry generations, or both. In this paper we introduce an unsupervised video generation model that learns a prior model of uncertainty in a given environment. Video frames are generated by drawing samples from this prior and combining them with a deterministic estimate of the future frame. The approach is simple and easily trained end-to-end on a variety of datasets. Sample generations are both varied and sharp, even many frames into the future, and compare favorably to those from existing approaches. Predicting the future in real-world settings, particularly from raw sensory observations such as images, is exceptionally challenging. Real-world events can be stochastic and unpredictable, and the high dimensionality and complexity of natural images requires the predictive model to build an intricate understanding of the natural world. Many existing methods tackle this problem by making simplifying assumptions about the environment. One common assumption is that the outcome is deterministic and there is only one plausible future. This can lead to low-quality predictions in real-world settings with stochastic dynamics. In this paper, we develop a stochastic variational video prediction (SV2P) method that predicts a different possible future for each sample of its latent variables. To the best of our knowledge, our model is the first to provide effective stochastic multi-frame prediction for real-world video. We demonstrate the capability of the proposed method in predicting detailed future frames of videos on multiple real-world datasets, both action-free and action-conditioned. We find that our proposed method produces substantially improved video predictions when compared to the same model without stochasticity, and to other stochastic video prediction methods. Our SV2P implementation will be open sourced upon publication.