Understanding why students stopout will help in understanding how students learn in MOOCs. In this report, part of a 3 unit compendium, we describe how we build accurate predictive models of MOOC student stopout. We document a scalable, stopout prediction methodology, end to end, from raw source data to model analysis. We attempted to predict stopout for the Fall 2012 offering of 6.002x. This involved the meticulous and crowd-sourced engineering of over 25 predictive features extracted for thousands of students, the creation of temporal and non-temporal data representations for use in predictive modeling, the derivation of over 10 thousand models with a variety of state-of-the-art machine learning techniques and the analysis of feature importance by examining over 70000 models. We found that stop out prediction is a tractable problem. Our models achieved an AUC (receiver operating characteristic area-under-the-curve) as high as 0.95 (and generally 0.88) when predicting one week in advance. Even with more difficult prediction problems, such as predicting stop out at the end of the course with only one weeks' data, the models attained AUCs of 0.7.
Most studies that we surveyed capture variables that are summaries over time. Some of these variables by definition are not time dependent such as @cite_46 and some are usually aggregated for a period in the course (or entire course): @cite_2 . In our work we operationalize variables at multiple time points in the course. In this aspect, perhaps the closest approach to ours is @cite_44 where authors form the time varying variables at different points of the course - different sections of the course.
@cite_44 @cite_46 @cite_2
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In this paper, a dropout prediction method for e-learning courses, based on three popular machine learning techniques and detailed student data, is proposed. The machine learning techniques used are feed-forward neural networks, support vector machines and probabilistic ensemble simplified fuzzy ARTMAP. Since a single technique may fail to accurately classify some e-learning students, whereas another may succeed, three decision schemes, which combine in different ways the results of the three machine learning techniques, were also tested. The method was examined in terms of overall accuracy, sensitivity and precision and its results were found to be significantly better than those reported in relevant literature. Pearson product–moment correlations found significant relationships between students' grades in the online class and their GPA, attendance at a class orientation session, the number of previous course withdrawals, ASSET reading scores, the number of previous online courses, age, and ACT English scores. Regression analysis found that two variables serve as the best predictors: attendance at an orientation session, and the student's grade point average. The academic e-learning practice has to deal with various participation patterns and types of online learners with different support needs. The online instructors are challenged to recognize these and react accordingly. Among the participation patterns, special attention is requested by dropouts, which can perturbate online collaboration. Therefore we are in search of a method of early identification of participation patterns and prediction of dropouts. To do this, we use a quantitative view of participation that takes into account only observable variables. On this background we identify in a field study the participation indicators that are relevant for the course completion, i.e. produce significant differences between the completion and dropout sub-groups. Further we identify through cluster analysis four participation patterns with different support needs. One of them is the dropout cluster that could be predicted with an accuracy of nearly 80 . As a practical consequence, this study recommends a simple, easy-to-implement prediction method for dropouts, which can improve online teaching. As a theoretical consequence, we underline the role of the course didactics for the definition of participation, and call for refining previous attrition models.