Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) announced his intention to run for president in the 2016 election during a speech at Liberty University in Lynchburg, Va. (AP) 
 
 Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) announced his intention to run for president in the 2016 election during a speech at Liberty University in Lynchburg, Va. (AP) 
 
 With Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas becoming the first A-lister to throw his hat in the ring for president — in his case, I’m picturing a Napoleonic bicorn rather than a fedora — it’s time to handicap the race for the Republican nomination. I see it as Jeb Bush vs. the field, and I’m not ready to put my money on Bush. 
 
 Some may write off Cruz’s candidacy as a potentially entertaining sideshow, given his negligible showing in the polls. But that would be premature. Whatever else anyone thinks about Cruz, even his critics agree that he’s smart. 
 
 Eugene Robinson writes a twice-a-week column on politics and culture, contributes to the PostPartisan blog, and hosts a weekly online chat with readers. In a three-decade career at The Post, Robinson has been city hall reporter, city editor, foreign correspondent in Buenos Aires and London, foreign editor, and assistant managing editor in charge of the paper’s Style section. View Archive 
 
 True, his habit of usurping Speaker John Boehner’s job and leading House Republicans into hopeless battles has alienated much of the GOP establishment. But whatever game he’s playing, Cruz has the intelligence to look several moves ahead. For this reason alone, I can’t count him out. 
 
 Texas Ted is still a long shot, however. The man to beat is Bush — and I think someone could do just that, though I’m not sure who. 
 
 Take all of this with as many grains of salt as you like. Polling results are all over the map, and the number of potential candidates makes meaningful analysis basically impossible at this point. Anecdotal evidence abounds but is by definition unreliable. All of this explains why predicting the outcome of the nomination battle, at this far-too-early date, is so much fun. There are so few facts to get in the way of a good story. 
 
 With these caveats, we do know that Bush — not yet a declared candidate — has moved quickly to lock up a host of major Republican donors, assemble teams of experienced advisers and reportedly begin working out a comprehensive strategy for the general election. Since the beginning of the year, polls have shown him at or near the top of the field. 
 
 Is he, in the end, too much of a moderate to stir the passions of Republican primary voters? I don’t know, but I think he has a bigger problem: that unfortunate last name. 
 
 I can think of two people who would be absolutely delighted if the 2016 presidential election were between a Republican named Bush and a Democrat named Clinton: Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton. If they run against each other, the dynastic issue becomes a wash. For most of the country, however, I believe this prospect is less than thrilling. 
 
 Which might explain why Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is suddenly challenging Bush for the early lead — beating him, actually, in some polls. A couple of months ago, I’d wager, most Americans could not have picked Walker out of a lineup. Now, anyone paying close attention knows at least a few things about him: He talks tough, which Republican primary voters like. He won a battle against public employee unions in his state, which Republican primary voters love. And he isn’t named Bush. 
 
 Nobody knows if Walker has what it takes to make it all the way through primary season. And a host of others will have the chance to present themselves as the not-named-Bush alternative. 
 
 Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), like Bush, would automatically give Republicans a good chance of taking Florida’s electoral votes, which the GOP almost surely will need to have any hope of winning the presidency. Rubio has positioned himself as a foreign policy hawk. But will he have a positive message that can get voters excited? And will the party ever forgive him his apostasy on immigration? 
 
 Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), with his noninterventionist leanings on foreign policy and his libertarian views on some social issues, has unique appeal, among Republicans, for younger voters. But can he survive what will surely be a withering assault from GOP hawks who advocate a more muscular U.S. presence around the world? 
 
 Sen. Ted Cruz has declared his candidacy for president. The Texas Republican is known for his fiery oratorial style. Here's his take on immigration, Obamacare and, well, green eggs and ham. (Gillian Brockell/The Washington Post) 
 
 It is unclear whether former Texas governor Rick Perry can do better this time around or whether New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s presidential hopes still have a pulse. It is also unclear, at least to me, why famed neurosurgeon Ben Carson registers in double digits in some polls despite never having run for public office. 
 
 One of these men — and yes, they’re all men — may have the imagination to shape what Sarah Palin might call a “hopey changey” campaign message and the discipline to stick to it. If the candidate who does this is not named Bush, that’s where I’ll be placing my bet. 
 
 Read more from Eugene Robinson’s archive, follow him on Twitter or subscribe to his updates on Facebook. You can also join him Tuesdays at 1 p.m. for a live Q&A. ||||| WASHINGTON (AP) — Texas Sen. Ted Cruz will announce Monday his plans to run for president, becoming the first high-profile Republican formally to enter the 2016 presidential contest. 
 
 FILE - In this March 10, 2015, file photo, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, speaks at the International Association of Firefighters (IAFF) Legislative Conference and Presidential Forum in Washington. Cruz plans... (Associated Press) 
 
 Cruz has hinted openly at his intentions to seek the White House for months, and his intention to jump into the race was confirmed by a strategist for the first-term Republican senator, who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity so as not to preclude the formal announcement. 
 
 While Cruz is the first Republican to declare his candidacy, he is sure to be followed by several big names in the GOP, including former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and two Senate colleagues, Kentucky's Rand Paul and Florida's Marco Rubio. 
 
 Details about Cruz's Monday campaign launch were first reported by The Houston Chronicle. 
 
 Cruz, 44, has considerable appeal among the Republican Party's base of conservative voters. 
 
 Following his election to the Senate in 2012, the former Texas solicitor general quickly established himself as an uncompromising conservative willing to take on Democrats and Republicans alike. Criticized by members of his own party at times, he won praise from tea party activists for leading the GOP's push to shut down the federal government during an unsuccessful bid to block funding for President Barack Obama's health care law. 
 
 One of the nation's top college debaters while a student at Princeton University, Cruz continues to be a leading voice for the law's repeal. He also promises to abolish the Internal Revenue Service, scrap the Education Department and curtail federal regulators, likening them to locusts. 
 
 Cruz has left little doubt about his 2016 intentions in recent weeks. He made his first trip to New Hampshire earlier this month to help lay the groundwork for a presidential campaign, having already begun to ramp up outreach to party activists and donors. 
 
 While in New Hampshire, Cruz told voters his daughter, Caroline, had given him permission to join the presidential race in the hopes that the family puppy would get to play on the White House lawn instead of near their Houston high-rise condo. 
 
 "If you win, that means Snowflake will finally get a backyard to pee in," Cruz said his daughter told him. 
 
 Cruz is set to release a book this summer that he said would reflect themes of his White House campaign. 
 
 In a recent Associated Press interview, he said he wants to counter the "caricatures" of the right as "stupid," ''evil" or "crazy." 
 
 "The image created in the mainstream media does not comply with the facts," he said. 
 
 The son of an American mother and Cuban-born father, Cruz would be the nation's first Hispanic president. While born in Canada, two lawyers who represented presidents from both parties at the Supreme Court recently wrote in the Harvard Law Review that Cruz meets the constitutional standard to run. 
 
 Cruz would retain his Senate seat through early 2019 if he fails to win the presidency. ||||| Washington (CNN) More people have an unfavorable view of Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton now than at any time since 2001, according to a new CNN/ORC poll on the 2016 race. 
 
 While Clinton remains strikingly dominant in the Democratic field, the poll shows that her numbers have dropped significantly across several key indicators since she launched her campaign in April. 
 
 A growing number of people say she is not honest and trustworthy (57%, up from 49% in March), less than half feel she cares about people like them (47%, down from 53% last July) and more now feel she does not inspire confidence (50%, up from 42% last March). 
 
 In head-to-head match-ups against top Republicans, her margin is tighter than it has been at any point in CNN/ORC's polling on the contest. 
 
 Pfeiffer: Clinton is going to have to engage the press 
 
 Pfeiffer: Clinton is going to have to engage the press 05:02 
 
 Pfeiffer: Clinton is going to have to engage the press 
 
 On the Republican side, though, no candidate has successfully broken out of the pack. 
 
 Much of Clinton's fade is attributable to shifts among independents, but she's also losing some ground among her own partisans. Her support in the Democratic nomination contest has dropped 9 points since April, and though more than 8-in-10 Democrats said they thought she was honest and trustworthy earlier this year; now, just 73% say so. 
 
 The new CNN/ORC poll looking at the shape of the race for the presidency in 2016 finds these warning signs for Clinton, alongside some concerns for the Republican Party's best-known contender, Jeb Bush. 
 
 Jeb Bush's family ties 
 
 Bush's efforts to separate himself from his brother have worked to some extent. Only about half of Americans say Bush is "a lot like his brother." 
 
 But most -- 56% -- say his connection to two former presidents would make them less likely to back him for the presidency. Just 27% say that connection would make them more likely to back the former Florida governor. 
 
 JUST WATCHED Scott Walker jabs at Clinton over foundation claims Replay More Videos ... MUST WATCH Scott Walker jabs at Clinton over foundation claims 00:41 
 
 That's virtually the opposite situation of what his brother faced when George W. Bush made his initial run for the presidency in 1999. Back then, 42% said Bush's connection to his father made them more likely to back him, while only 24% said it was a deterrent. 
 
 Bush's family ties are slightly more of a draw for Republicans, but not by much. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 42% say they're more likely to back Jeb Bush because of his connections, while 38% say they are less likely to vote for him because of that. 
 
 No leader emerges in the GOP pack 
 
 For the bulk of the GOP field, however, the race for the Republican nomination remains an effort to distinguish themselves from the pack and no one has yet succeeded at that. 
 
 Though there has been some shuffling at the top of the GOP order since the last CNN/ORC poll in April, no individual candidate's movement lies outside of the margin of sampling error. 
 
 Rubio tops the field with 14%, with Bush near even at 13%. Huckabee and Walker follow at 10% each, with Cruz (8%), Paul (8%) and Carson (7%) all within striking distance of double-digit support. 
 
 Paul prompts the largest gender gap on the GOP side, drawing 13% and tying for first among men while garnering just 2% support among women. 
 
 The top of the field is similar among conservative Republicans to the overall horse race numbers, but among those who consider themselves tea party supporters, there's a clear leader: Scott Walker with 19% support. His closest competitor is Ted Cruz with 12%. 
 
 JUST WATCHED New Clinton challenger jumping into 2016 race Replay More Videos ... MUST WATCH New Clinton challenger jumping into 2016 race 02:01 
 
 Overall, about half of Republicans (49%) would like to see the field resolve early, saying it would be best for the party if one strong candidate emerged early as a clear frontrunner. But 46% say they would prefer a longer campaign, with a number of strong contenders competing over the next year. 
 
 One possible differentiator emerges: The poll finds a distinct difference in which candidates Republicans view as representing the future rather than the past. 
 
 Three-quarters of Republicans describe Marco Rubio (77%) or Scott Walker (75%) as representing the future, nearly 7-in-10 say so about Rand Paul (68%), but Bush (51%) and Christie (51%) are far less likely to be seen as representative of the future. 
 
 The growing Democratic field 
 
 Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say they would like a competitive primary (53% say that would be best for the party), but their preferences so far don't portend a close contest. 
 
 Clinton continues to hold a massive lead in that race, with 60% of Democrats saying she would be their top choice for the nomination. Behind her, 14% would favor Vice President Joe Biden, and 10% prefer Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. 
 
 Martin O'Malley, the former Maryland governor who announced his candidacy on Saturday, barely registers with 1% support. 
 
 Sanders does fare better among liberals than overall, carrying 18% support among that group, but Clinton still notches 61% among the liberals in her party. 
 
 Getting closer to the general 
 
 In general election match-ups, Clinton now runs about even with Rand Paul, Scott Walker and Marco Rubio, while she continues to top Bush and Ted Cruz by a significant margin. 
 
 As noted above, those shifts stem largely from a change among independents, though Republicans appear to be solidifying their support for GOP candidates while Democrats are slightly less certain about Clinton. 
 
 One feature of the race that has held even as the numbers shifted: These match-ups prompt enormous gender gaps. According to the poll, the gender gaps remain over 20 points in each of the five match-ups tested, including a whopping 34-point gender gap in Clinton's match-up with Scott Walker. 
 
 Her declining support in those general election match-ups, alongside falling favorability ratings and worsening impressions of her, suggests recent news about her actions as secretary of state may have taken a toll. 
 
 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has said his decision to run for the Republican nomination will be based on two things: his family and whether he can lift America's spirit. His father and brother are former Presidents. Hide Caption 1 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has created a political committee that will help him travel and raise money while he considers a 2016 bid. Additionally, billionaire businessman David Koch said in a private gathering in Manhattan this month that he wants Walker to be the next president, but he doesn't plan to back anyone in the primaries. Hide Caption 2 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal is establishing a committee to formally explore a White House bid. "If I run, my candidacy will be based on the idea that the American people are ready to try a dramatically different direction," he said in a news release provided to CNN on Monday, May 18 Hide Caption 3 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Sen. Bernie Sanders , an independent from Vermont who caucuses with Democrats, has said the United States needs a "political revolution" of working-class Americans looking to take back control of the government from billionaires. He first announced the run in an email to supporters early on the morning of Thursday, April 30. Hide Caption 4 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates On March 2, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson announced the launch of an exploratory committee. The move will allow him to raise money that could eventually be transferred to an official presidential campaign and indicates he is on track with stated plans to formally announce a bid in May. Hide Caption 5 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham has said he'll make a decision about a presidential run sometime soon. A potential bid could focus on Graham's foreign policy stance. Hide Caption 6 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Hillary Clinton launched her presidential bid Sunday, April 12, through a video message on social media. She continues to be considered the overwhelming front-runner among possible 2016 Democratic presidential candidates. Hide Caption 7 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Sen. Marco Rubio announced his bid for the 2016 presidency on Monday, April 13, a day after Hillary Clinton, with a rally in Florida. He's a Republican rising star from Florida who swept into office in 2010 on the back of tea party fervor. But his support of comprehensive immigration reform, which passed the Senate but has stalled in the House, has led some in his party to sour on his prospects. Hide Caption 8 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Lincoln Chafee, a Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat former governor and senator of Rhode Island, said he's running for president on Thursday, April 16, as a Democrat, but his spokeswoman said the campaign is still in the presidential exploratory committee stages. Hide Caption 9 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Jim Webb, the former Democratic senator from Virginia, is entertaining a 2016 presidential run. In January, he told NPR that his party has not focused on white, working-class voters in past elections. Hide Caption 10 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Vice President Joe Biden has twice before made unsuccessful bids for the Oval Office -- in 1988 and 2008. A former senator known for his foreign policy and national security expertise, Biden made the rounds on the morning shows recently and said he thinks he'd "make a good President." Hide Caption 11 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has started a series of town halls in New Hampshire to test the presidential waters, becoming more comfortable talking about national issues and staking out positions on hot topic debates. Hide Caption 12 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Rep. Paul Ryan, a former 2012 vice presidential candidate and fiscally conservative budget hawk, says he's keeping his "options open" for a possible presidential run but is not focused on it. Hide Caption 13 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Sen. Rand Paul officially announced his presidential bid on Tuesday, April 7, at a rally in Louisville, Kentucky. The tea party favorite probably will have to address previous controversies that include comments on civil rights, a plagiarism allegation and his assertion that the top NSA official lied to Congress about surveillance. Hide Caption 14 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Texas Sen. Ted Cruz announced his 2016 presidential bid on Monday, March 23, in a speech at Liberty University. The first-term Republican and tea party darling is considered a gifted orator and smart politician. He is best known in the Senate for his marathon filibuster over defunding Obamacare. Hide Caption 15 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Democrat Martin O'Malley, the former Maryland governor, released a "buzzy" political video in November 2013 in tandem with visits to New Hampshire. He also headlined a Democratic Party event in South Carolina, which holds the first Southern primary. Hide Caption 16 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Republican Rick Perry, the former Texas governor, announced in 2013 that he would not be seeking re-election, leading to speculation that he might mount a second White House bid. Hide Caption 17 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, a social conservative, gave Mitt Romney his toughest challenge in the nomination fight last time out and has made trips recently to early voting states, including Iowa and South Carolina. Hide Caption 18 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Political observers expect New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo to yield to Hillary Clinton's run in 2016, fearing there wouldn't be room in the race for two Democrats from the Empire State. Hide Caption 19 of 19 
 
 Though most -- 61% -- think the release of Clinton's emails over the next months from her time as secretary of state will not reveal any previously hidden wrongdoing, the poll also finds 58% are dissatisfied with the way she handled the attack in Benghazi in 2012. 
 
 A narrow majority feel the Republican-led congressional hearings on the attack have been handled appropriately, just 41% say the GOP has gone too far with them. 
 
 Clinton's family ties to a president are more of a wash than Bush's. While 39% say her marriage to Bill Clinton makes them more likely to vote for her, the same share say it's a turn-off. And most Americans say Clinton is not like her husband at all (54%). 
 
 The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone May 29-31, among a random national sample of 1,025 adults. The margin of sampling error for results among the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. It is 4.5 points for results among the 433 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and the 483 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
– If it seems like it's already gone on for years, we are currently 596 (five hundred ninety-six) days away from the election that will determine the next president of the United States of America. But we are only one day away from the first official hat getting tossed into the 2016 ring by one of the many who been circling it, and the Houston Chronicle reports that it belongs to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Unnamed senior advisers say the Republican will announce his candidacy tomorrow, skipping right past the exploratory committee fun (looking at you, Jim Webb) and going right for the hat-tossing. More unnamed sources confirm the pending announcement to the AP, which notes Cruz will likely be soon joined by the likes of Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio. And if 2016 doesn't work out for Cruz, he'll keep his current day job until 2019.