The bombshell Donald Trump video that surfaced Friday has so dramatically altered expectations for Sunday’s town hall debate that one Democrat close to Bill and Hillary Clinton had a new view of what may unfold in St. Louis: “Expect Armageddon.” 
 
 Hillary Clinton will arrive at the Washington University debate stage Sunday prepped for battle against an opponent many of her allies believe has already lost the election. 
 
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 Trump, in contrast, will walk onto the debate stage with nothing to lose. 
 
 Two days after a tape surfaced of the reality television star bragging in obscene terms about groping and kissing women without consent, and a day after unprecedented defections of support and calls for his withdrawal from leaders of his own party, the second debate now falls at the most precipitous moment in the election. 
 
 That puts Clinton in a more precarious position on the debate stage. “I think that Trump will figure he’s got nothing to lose, so he might as well go all out,” said the Democrat close to the Clintons. 
 
 Longtime Democratic strategist Robert Shrum, who guided the presidential campaigns of Al Gore and John Kerry, said that “to the extent that he has any chance left at all — and I don’t think he does — this debate is do or die for him. Her goal is to do no harm and relate to voters.” 
 
 A Clinton campaign official on Saturday said the Democratic nominee plans to address the bombshell Trump tape head-on for the first time from the debate stage — and that the campaign went dark on Saturday in order to capitalize on one of the biggest audiences available with 30 days left of the race, tuned in to hear her response. 
 
 But in debate prep sessions in the week leading up to the debate, Clinton aides were urging the Democratic nominee to remain focused on the real people posing questions in the town hall forum, rather than engage in an ugly back and forth with Trump. The goal, they said, should be to show off the caring, connecting, maternal side of Clinton that voters are less familiar with than the steely war horse who endured an 11-hour Benghazi hearing last fall. 
 
 But the weekend’s events have upended any expectation of a normal debate. In a video statement released late Friday night, Trump said that “Bill Clinton has actually abused women, and Hillary Clinton has bullied, attacked, shamed and intimidated his victims. We will discuss this more in the coming days.” 
 
 On Saturday evening, Trump previewed his nothing-to-lose strategy — he retweeted Juanita Broaddrick, the woman who accused Bill Clinton of raping her in 1978. Bill Clinton has denied the accusation, which Broaddrick made in 1999, in the wake of his affair with Monica Lewinsky. 
 
 Clinton was also preparing to respond to questions about her paid Wall Street speeches, which emerged on WikiLeaks after campaign chairman John Podesta’s emails were hacked. In one line, she stressed the importance of having a “public and private position” on contentious political issues. A source familiar with her debate prep said she plans to dismiss any scrutiny of the leaked excerpts from her speech as no different from what she has said in public. 
 
 But many Democratic allies predicted that bringing up Bill Clinton’s sex scandals only paints his wife in a sympathetic position, as someone who has struggled and suffered to keep her family together as a unit. Even if Trump argues that she disparaged the women who allegedly engaged in affairs with her husband, they said, many voters will see her through the lens of a hurt wife lashing out. 
 
 But a down-in-the-gutter conversation about sex and speeches is still not how the Clinton campaign would like to spend 90 minutes in prime time, with millions of viewers tuned in. 
 
 “The challenge, and the opportunity, will be to connect with people in a visceral and not simply a programmatic way,” said David Axelrod, a former senior strategist for President Barack Obama. “The danger is that she could overplay the attacks in a forum in which her interaction with the questioners should be a primary focus.” 
 
 “Voters identify with the citizens asking the questions,” added longtime Clinton ally Paul Begala, who is working as an adviser to the Clinton-backing super PAC Priorities USA. “I would bet my life that she talks about her 19-point plan on child care. What I’m wishing and praying for is, she makes a reference to the fact that she was a working mom. You’ve got to be more conversational.” 
 
 Before Trump’s weekend massacre, Clinton’s aides were hoping the town hall set up would be an opportunity for the oft-obscured “real Hillary” to reveal herself. 
 
 They pointed to a moment last February in Las Vegas, when Clinton comforted an emotional 10-year-old Latina girl who said she feared her parents were going to be deported, as one of her finest moments on the trail. “I’m going to do everything I can so you don’t have to be scared,” Clinton told Karla Ortiz, wrapping her arm around the girl’s waist. “Let me do the worrying, I’ll do all the worrying, is that a deal?” 
 
 Clinton aides often refer to the scene (which occurred in a private meeting and was released by the campaign as a carefully produced television commercial) as a prime example of the side of the Democratic nominee that voters don’t know exists. 
 
 More important than attacking Trump, Democratic allies said, was creating an “Ortiz moment,” which could give undecided voters a sense of something positive to vote for, not just someone to vote against. 
 
 Even before the release of Trump’s profane tape, in which he talks of grabbing women by the “pussy” and trying to seduce a married woman by “moving on her like a bitch,” Clinton was entering the second debate surging in the polls. The FiveThirtyEight election forecast had boosted her chances of winning back up to 79.6 percent before the damaging Trump tape release, and a new Quinnipiac University poll released Friday morning showed Clinton leading Trump nationally by 5 points. 
 
 That lead has given some of her longtime aides pause: if the past is prelude, this is exactly when Clinton chokes. 
 
 “She has, historically been a really horrible front-runner,” conceded one veteran of her 2008 campaign. “She’s extremely cautious and risk-averse, and it causes her, ironically, to make mistakes.” Another longtime aide added: "Finishing the deal has been hard for her in many contexts. Nobody in her universe is fully confident until it’s actually over.” 
 
 But the Trump tape changes the stakes. Clinton has never in her long career been this close to the finish line. And she has never had an opponent falling apart because of his aggressive and disparaging remarks about women: She now also has the opportunity to stand as a powerful avatar for disgusted and depressed women across the country. 
 
 It’s a role she has, in the past, hesitated to play. In her presidential campaign eight years ago, Clinton downplayed her gender, often saying that she “was not running as a woman” but “because I believe I am the best-qualified and experienced person.” 
 
 But on Saturday, her campaign released a powerful 90-second video online, splicing Trump’s profane comments from the leaked video with other misogynistic statements he has made over the course of his campaign. “Women have the power to stop Trump,” Clinton’s campaign tweeted from the candidate’s official account, with a link to the Web video. 
 
 The official campaign Twitter account also tweeted a quote from Sen. Cory Booker: “Sometimes the man in the arena, it ain’t a man. It is a woman.” 
 
 The events of the weekend were a boon to Clinton’s campaign, but also required re-prepping. Clinton’s aides had been reviewing tape of Trump in town hall settings and video of his deposition from June, in order to prepare for a more toned-down version of the blustering real estate mogul. 
 
 But on Saturday, longtime Clinton allies said they expected Trump was more likely to use the debate as a last-ditch effort to save his candidacy — and if that didn't work, possibly get out of the race and turn it over to Mike Pence to defeat Clinton. 
 
 The campaign’s attorney, Marc Elias, and campaign manager Robby Mook were huddling Saturday to discuss that possibility, but Elias said that it was too late to replace Trump on state ballots and he would be the candidate, no matter what, on Election Day. 
 
 Trump, meanwhile, was putting on a strong face, even in the wake of unprecedented defections from top GOP senators and party leaders. On Saturday afternoon, he strode out of Trump Tower to wave to a crowd of supporters gathered on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan. 
 
 “The media and establishment want me out of the race so badly — I WILL NEVER DROP OUT OF THE RACE, WILL NEVER LET MY SUPPORTERS DOWN #MAGA” he tweeted Saturday afternoon. 
 
 And those Republicans who were still standing with him previewed a come-from-behind performance. “Donald Trump is a clutch player who does well when he’s under pressure,” said Roger Stone, a former adviser to his campaign. “Any mistakes he makes are more likely when his guard is down and it’s casual.” ||||| The final stretch of the longest presidential campaign in history opens this week. Think it’s been ugly? You’ve seen nothing yet. 
 
 Both Hillary Clinton’s and Donald Trump’s teams see September as the month that will make — or break — their candidate’s case for the White House. A confident Clinton fighting to keep expectations in check will ratchet up her get-out-the-vote operation while courting more Republicans to her camp. A defiant Trump will double down on the America-first message that he thinks got him this far in the first place. The Democrat's allies will continue to blanket the battleground airwaves with stinging attacks on Trump’s character. And three weeks into the month, early voting periods will open, state by state. 
 
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 But nothing is more crucial for either contender than Sept. 26, when Clinton and Trump will meet at Hofstra University for the first presidential debate. Both campaigns have come to the conclusion that for the Republican nominee to compete in the homestretch, he needs a shock to the system and the Hempstead, New York, forum offers his best opportunity. 
 
 “The wildness and unpredictability of the last 16 months?” said Democratic Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper. “It's only going to increase. It’s not going away. Hold onto your hat." 
 
 Clinton’s camp is already wary. After watching Trump try to refocus after a staff shakeup in the second half of August, stick to his teleprompter-loaded remarks, travel to Mexico to stand next to an elected head of state and then deliver a hard-line immigration speech lauded by conservative Republicans, operatives at the highest rungs of the Democrat’s operation admit to mounting worry about his ability to pare deficits in the battleground states in which she is leading by roughly 5 points or less. 
 
 At the center of senior Clinton aides’ pre-debate concern is the belief that Trump’s past few days demonstrate how low the bar is for his performance to be called a success. If simply standing next to the Mexican president is perceived as a win for Trump’s image, they complain, appearing across from Clinton will likely further elevate his standing. Indeed, Clinton’s inner circle is eager to tamp down any sign of confidence, no matter her current lead or the Electoral College map. 
 
 Trump’s inner circle agrees the stakes are high — internally acknowledging that Clinton is on track to win the White House unless the response to his debate performance is titanic. But the Republican and his allies are entering September with renewed confidence, buoyed by a narrowing in national polling, even if he remains behind in swing-state surveys. The RealClearPolitics national polling average, for example, has him down just 4.1 percentage points, a nearly halved margin from Clinton’s post-convention peak of 7.9 points in early August. The “Let Trump be Trump” faction of his rollicking campaign has claimed dominance in his debate-focused strategy sessions, while his operatives in Manhattan and suburban Washington puzzle through how to run a base-turnout election that gives him a realistic shot at 270 electoral votes. 
 
 But like just about everything in 2016, Trump’s and Clinton’s approaches to debate prep could not be more different. 
 
 The Democrat started her prep weeks ago, diving into policy briefing materials compiled by her internal teams while meeting with the experienced Democrats organizing her debate operations, often at her home outside New York City and occasionally on the campaign trail during her quiet August. Her team is led by debate veterans Ron Klain and Karen Dunn. Campaign chairman John Podesta, chief strategist Joel Benenson, and senior consultants Mandy Grunwald and Jim Margolis are also involved. So is lawyer Robert Barnett — another longtime coach — though his primary focus is on running mate Tim Kaine’s debate. 
 
 Clinton has stuck to consulting with this inner circle, which thinks general-election debates are policy discussions and that Trump can’t emerge unscathed in the eyes of undecided voters from a substantive test on the issues. 
 
 “I don’t think there’s any question — especially when it seems like the electorate is firming up and it seems like there are less and less undecideds at this point” — that the debate is an inflection point, said Democratic Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, a prominent Clinton supporter. “It does feel like Trump’s hit some sort of a ceiling. If there’s any way to break that loose, he’s got to somehow magically understand foreign policy and complexities of domestic policy, and have to tell the truth, too." 
 
 Some political professionals surrounding Trump, meanwhile, have been urging him to start preparing for the first debate for six months, said former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, an early Trump supporter, counting himself among the allies suggesting that approach. 
 
 Trump didn’t heed that advice, only recently convening his own debate-focused team of campaign CEO Steve Bannon, campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, former Fox News chief Roger Ailes, son-in-law Jared Kushner and other family members to plot strategy. He’s also consulting with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, retired Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn and Brown, said one person involved in the process, who also noted that radio host Laura Ingraham’s role is a frequent topic of discussion. 
 
 Those surrounding Trump don’t expect him to dig through policy binders, and they’re skeptical he'll participate in a mock debate — expecting him to focus instead on the top-line optics when debating a longtime pol. 
 
 "She says she’s preparing," Brown said. "She’s well versed in this area; she’s been running for offices for decades now. She’ll have a national built-in advantage because she’s been a politician her whole life, and you’re running against someone who hasn’t. He’s not as filtered as she is; she hasn’t driven in 20 years. She seems kind of uneasy hanging out with people; she can’t yuk it up like one of the guys or gals and talk about the Red Sox or the Jets. Trump can — he brings the everyman appeal." 
 
 Clinton’s prep team has, accordingly, puzzled through making her look trustworthy, suggesting ways for Clinton to pin down Trump on policy and expose his lack of knowledge. 
 
 “In a two-person debate; it’s not going to work to say, ‘I’ll take care of this; I know more than the generals, believe me,’” said former Pennsylvania governor and longtime Clinton friend Ed Rendell. “You actually have to be substantive." 
 
 But they remain concerned about Trump’s unpredictability, as Clinton privately acknowledges to donors. Before selecting its stand-in, her campaign was flooded with tentative offers from supporters eager to play the Trump role in mock sessions — even getting one from former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm. (She was kidding, she said: “I’m probably too short.”) 
 
 Still more complications are piling up: Clinton friends say she is leaving open the possibility that Trump agrees to only one debate, increasing the urgency of appealing to as many constituencies as possible in 90 minutes. They also expect him to threaten to pull out of the debate in the weeks leading up to it as a way to heighten the drama, and to agitate for the inclusion of Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson — a fate the Clinton camp is desperate to avoid. 
 
 Her team is also grappling with the difficulty of preparing the candidate to debate an opponent so inconsistent that he could either throw personal insults, mocking her in the way he did his GOP primary opponents, or offer a more presidential presence, as he attempted last week in Mexico. 
 
 “It’s a difficult thing to debate a chameleon,” Hickenlooper said. 
 
 Trump forces are eager to cultivate the unpredictability mystique. They’re also eager to lower expectations. 
 
 “The debates may turn out not to be the spectacle people think they are: Both candidates are seasoned debaters at this point,” said former Georgia Rep. Jack Kingston, a Trump adviser. “I just don’t see Hillary Clinton slipping in a debate." 
 
 Nonetheless, new confidence has burst into Trump’s everyday interactions since he installed Bannon and Conway, say associates. Bannon has convinced Trump to stick to scripted speeches written by him and policy aide Stephen Miller, which people in Bannon’s orbits see as a critical development. 
 
 That’s not to say there aren’t still competing centers of influence within the Trump infrastructure, as Kushner plays an outsize role and Giuliani finds himself ever more firmly ensconced. But those guiding Trump have concluded that turning the remaining months into a base election — the kind of appeal with which the candidate is most comfortable — is his only realistic path to victory. 
 
 Clinton’s team and her supportive super PAC, Priorities USA Action, have booked tens of millions of dollars worth of television airtime for Trump-savaging ads over the coming stretch, but Trump’s campaign has promised to go on air only in the coming week, pulling together a small buy that isn’t supplemented by much super-PAC firepower as major Republican donors remain on the sidelines. 
 
 Clinton’s cash-rich camp, meanwhile, has been eager to expand the map, adding an initial Arizona purchase to its portfolio last week, while leaders of the super PAC have been meeting and holding conference calls to consider expanding into Arizona and Georgia — two states where the group has been actively polling for weeks. 
 
 This week Clinton’s campaign is shifting into a get-out-the-vote mode while she also maintains her sideline pursuit of poachable Republicans. Her team will continue touting prominent GOP endorsements: Former California gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman even introduced Clinton at multiple closed-door August fundraisers in California. There, the candidate explained her approach to Republicans interested in Trump, according to one Bay Area attendee. Clinton divides Trump voters into two baskets, she said: the everyday Republicans — her targets — and what she called “the deplorables” — the "alt-right" crowd she excoriates and has no hope of wooing. 
 
 Clinton will substantially ramp up her campaign travel schedule in September, focusing on national security issues this week. Her team will also step up its surrogate activity, planning at least one major appearance from Clinton, Kaine, former President Bill Clinton — who will reappear on the trail after some time focused on fundraising — President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders every day. 
 
 That starts Monday, with Sanders in New Hampshire, Biden in Pennsylvania, and Bill Clinton in Michigan and Ohio. 
 
 But all that is simply a way to count down to the moment that might seal their presidential fate. 
 
 “Debates,” said Ryan, "are really the only opportunity to try and shift a campaign." 
 
 Eli Stokols contributed to this report. ||||| (CNN) CNN commentators and guest analysts offer their take on Tuesday night's vice presidential candidate debate. The opinions expressed in these commentaries are solely those of the authors. 
 
 David Gergen: Pence Lifts GOP Spirits 
 
 Governor Mike Pence did not change the underlying dynamics of the campaign Tuesday night, but he did provide a significant service to Donald Trump: he gave fresh heart to Trump supporters and may have stopped the downward spiral of their campaign. 
 
 Democrats and many journalists argue that Pence succeeded only by throwing Trump under the bus, refusing to defend his boss from repeated attacks. But they miss the point: voters rarely scrutinize debates line-by-line, instead making their judgments on the overall tone and performance of a candidate. Pence will not fare well with fact checkers, but his poise and polish played well with voters. For better or worse, style counts a lot in these debates. 
 
 Tim Kaine had a much sharper mastery of policy but was forced to play attack dog, a role that doesn't fit his personality. His frequent interruptions didn't help, either -- he seemed less Rottweiler than fox terrier. And by the way, who screwed up his camera angle, so that he was often looking off into space instead of talking directly to viewers? That wasn't fair to him or the audience. 
 
 With a CNN poll showing a Pence victory, Republicans finally have reason to cheer again. Trump himself should see how much preparation paid off for his running mate. But now it is up to the candidate to show he can win at this game, too: the upcoming debate this Sunday in St. Louis is make or break for Trump. 
 
 David Gergen is a senior political analyst for CNN and has been a White House adviser to four presidents. A graduate of Harvard Law School, he is a professor of public service and co-director of the Center for Public Leadership at the Harvard Kennedy School. Follow him @david_gergen . The opinions expressed in this commentary are his. 
 
 Sally Kohn: Mike Pence is living on an alternate planet 
 
 Sally Kohn 
 
 Well it turns out, if you refuse to acknowledge any of the horrible things that Donald Trump has actually said, then it's pretty easy to defend him. 
 
 This was the main takeaway from the vice presidential debate. Over and over again, Democratic VP nominee Tim Kaine tried valiantly to hold Republican Mike Pence accountable for the misogynistic, xenophobic, anti-Muslim, pro-Putin things that his running mate Donald Trump has said. And over and over again, Pence acted like Kaine was not only making these things up but, in so doing, actually perpetrating a campaign of insults simply by repeating the things that Donald Trump had said yet Mike Pence refused to acknowledge. I'm pretty impressed that Kaine's head didn't explode. Mine certainly came close. 
 
 I don't know how you debate someone who seems to have encamped himself on a different planet. Yet to his credit, Mike Pence dished out his flurry of lies with calm confidence -- while Tim Kaine, the truth-teller, came off as ruffled. 
 
 In a moment in American media and political history where the very existence let alone definition of "facts" seems worryingly debatable, I pray that the American people can still tell the difference. Or else I pray that not that many people were watching — and that the morning-after media will do its job of fact checking Pence for his downright lies and thus the impression most voters will walk away will be one closer to -- well, fact. 
 
 Facts are facts. We have literal recordings and transcripts. 
 
 But if anything, the VP debate tests the relevance of facts in this election. Donald Trump and Mike Pence's strategy seems to be to repeat lies often enough to convince 51% of voters that they're the truth. And unfortunately, what actually is true doesn't matter as much as what voters believe to be true. Donald Trump has already bent the electoral process, the media and the boundaries of basic civility to his whims. He may now bend the concept of fact as well. Certainly, his loyal running mate is trying. 
 
 Sally Kohn is an activist, columnist and television commentator. Follow her on Twitter: @sallykohn . She supports Hillary Clinton for the presidency. 
 
 Errol Louis: Pence gives lesson on how to defend Trump 
 
 Errol Louis 
 
 Indiana Gov. Mike Pence went into Tuesday's vice presidential debate burdened with saving the Trump campaign after one of its worst weeks. He emerged as the calmer, smoother counterpart to the erratic performance by Donald Trump during last week's debate. 
 
 Pence's skillful performance was, in part, a product of the five years he spent as a radio talk show host, a job that put a premium on maintaining a clear and conversational tone and timing. 
 
 To make his burden easier, Pence made as few references as possible to Trump, dancing around criticisms about his running mate's tax returns, insults to a former Miss Universe and the constitutionality of his "extreme vetting" plans. Instead, he spent the bulk of the night smoothing out what he dismissed as misinterpretations of Trump's proposals. 
 
 Even if he didn't fully answer questions on race relations and questions on Trump's business acumen, Pence was the cooler alternative to Sen. Tim Kaine, who came off as canned, too-clever and nervous, interrupting Pence throughout the debate. 
 
 Pence calmly dismissed assertions from Kaine with a chuckle, calling his points nonsense. That won't eliminate all the political damage Trump has done with his nonstop insults and mockery, but it demonstrated to other Trump supporters how to defend their candidate without doubling down on his abrasive style. 
 
 S.E. Cupp: Kaine gave tone deaf, unhinged performance 
 
 S.E. Cupp 
 
 Just wow. Tim Kaine had one (fairly simple) job tonight: make the Donald Trump ticket look like the unstable one. Instead, for reasons only the late Miss Cleo might know, he was the one who was totally out of control. 
 
 Sure, he laid out the differences between Trump and Hillary Clinton, hammered away at Trump's rhetoric and asked numerous times how Mike Pence could defend some of Trump's words and proposals. But who could hear any of that through the cacophony of hyperactive, ballistic outbursts and interruptions that marked most of the conversation? 
 
 At one point, Pence mentioned 9/11 and Kaine interrupted to excitedly announce, "I was there, too, by the Pentagon!" When he wasn't interrupting, he was steamrolling through prepared paragraphs of alliterative dad jokes and scripted zingers that might have been effective -- if they weren't delivered at warp speed. And he was so wedded to his anti-Trump mandate, he often seemed oblivious. In an answer to a question about the children of Syria -- let me repeat, the CHILDREN OF SYRIA -- his response was to point out that Trump didn't pay his taxes. 
 
 Whatever substantive points Kaine made about Trump's unpreparedness -- and there were many, and they were important -- were totally overshadowed by Kaine's tone deaf, overly caffeinated, unhinged performance, especially when contrasted with Pence's calm and composed one. If undecided voters were watching, Pence by far seemed the saner choice, maybe even in spite of his running mate. 
 
 S.E. Cupp is the author of " Losing Our Religion: The Liberal Media's Attack on Christianity," co-author of " Why You're Wrong About the Right " and a columnist at the New York Daily News. 
 
 Tara Setmayer: Debate won't move needle 
 
 Tara Setmayer 
 
 Despite finishing a bit weaker than he started, Mike Pence was able to successfully execute his strategy better than Tim Kaine. Pence was unflappable throughout, while deliberately choosing to avoid answering any direct questions about his running mate's litany of controversial remarks and positions. 
 
 By design, Pence took every opportunity to make the question a referendum on Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama's failed policies regardless of the question asked. This tactic forced Tim Kaine to play defense most of the evening. 
 
 Kaine was at his best when he listed many of Trump's controversial statements and then challenged Pence multiple times to defend them, which he didn't for the most part. However, Kaine's incessant interruptions were off putting and undermined his own message. 
 
 Although Pence emerged the victor overall, it won't move the needle at all for voters. Vice presidential debates rarely do. In this case, it simply reminded many Republicans how much different this race would be if a knowledgeable Republican who could effectively articulate the issues were at the top of the ticket instead of a self-aggrandizing demagogue like Trump. 
 
 Tara Setmayer is former communications director for Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-California, and a CNN political commentator. Follow her on Twitter @tarasetmayer. 
 
 Tim Stanley: Pence delivers pleasingly banal performance 
 
 Timothy Stanley 
 
 Now, that was the kind of polite and intelligent debate we used not to watch. Yes, the VP encounter was feisty, but never personally offensive -- and its substance also felt incredibly old fashioned. The separation of church and state, a subject never mentioned in Trump v Clinton, was tactfully addressed; memories of 9/11 were invoked; both candidates agreed that Russia is a strategic threat. In fact, Mike Pence's performance was so old school Republican that he seemed unaware of the reality of Trump's iconoclastic campaign. "Yes, I am happy to defend Mr. Trump," he insisted, adding that Hillary Clinton was the lady with all the insults and Trump was a great and honest businessman. He was defending the Trump of his imagination. 
 
 Kaine gave a spirited performance that was, to his detriment, wholly negative. If he couldn't say "But your candidate said XYZ!" then he wouldn't have had much to say at all. Pence defused the antagonism with the wry smile of a genial old man humoring a simpleton -- and won most rounds. He scored highly on law and order, insisting that there's no contradiction between acknowledging that police racism exists and refusing to exploit tragedy for votes. 
 
 So effective was his performance, so pleasingly banal, that many Republicans will be calling for the ticket to be switched. They do so forgetting that Trump's radicalism deflects but does not diminish Pence's: He was once considered a politically incorrect conservative himself, and any other year would have been regarded as a risky choice for VP. 
 
 So this debate reinforced the impression that while the Democrat ticket is weak and unlikeable, the Republican one is eccentric. Pence, undeniably effective, won in large part by not being as bizarre as his running mate. Any momentum gained will doubtless be squandered by Trump himself. 
 
 Timothy Stanley is a historian and columnist for Britain's Daily Telegraph. He is the author of "Citizen Hollywood: How the Collaboration Between L.A. and D.C. Revolutionized American Politics." 
 
 Jeff Yang: Pence edges non-event 
 
 Jeff Yang 
 
 The overwhelming feeling one was left with after the first and only televised "Second Chair Debate" was pointlessness verging on nihilism. Yes, each debater "landed hits" and "scored points." But the debate will almost certainly have no meaningful or lasting effect on this particular election. 
 
 What we saw in Tim Kaine was a friendly, loyal, bland but upstanding (upblanding?) politician who ably filled his role as Hillary Clinton's staunch defender, but who fell a bit short in executing the other half of his job, as the ticket's designated attack dog. A bit too eager out of the gate, and nearly edgeless in his delivery, Kaine appeared to be more of a frantic puppy than a partisan pit bull. Still, he managed to come off as both human and humane, and certainly did no harm to the Democrats' prospects. 
 
 Mike Pence, as others have remarked, was another story. Though he came off as articulate and informed, and far more measured and thoughtful-seeming than his shoot-from-the-lip running mate, he did Donald Trump no favors as wingman. When pressed to respond to questions about Trump's extensive lies, utter lack of transparency and fractal conflicts of interest, Pence simply evaded and dodged until moderator Elaine Quijano was forced to move on, causing the Republican to visibly exhale in relief. What we were left with was the sense that Pence sees Trump as a stepping stone to his own ambitions; that he's playing for 2020, not 2016. 
 
 In the end, Pence may have eked out a "victory" in this sideshow, but hardly the overwhelming one the GOP accidentally predicted when it uploaded a prewritten Pence wins debate post on its website -- before the debate actually began. Yet another sign of the lack of significance assigned to this non-event, and one we perhaps should have heeded. 
 
 Jeff Yang is a columnist for The Wall Street Journal and a frequent contributor to radio shows including Public Radio International's "The Takeaway" and WNYC's "The Brian Lehrer Show." He is the co-author of "I Am Jackie Chan: My Life in Action" and editor of the graphic novel anthologies "Secret Identities" and "Shattered." 
 
 Nayyera Haq: Kaine, Pence and the battle for white voters 
 
 Nayyera Haq 
 
 It was supposed to be a boring match-up between two men viewed as milquetoast leaders playing second fiddle to the more media-friendly politicians at the top of the ticket. 
 
 Most of us have known Hillary Clinton's running mate as Uncle Tim with the jokes, and Mike Pence as the tortured soul trying to add respectability to Trump's maverick campaign. Tim Kaine broke expectations, showing us the sharp leader who helped heal his state after the Virginia Tech massacre. Poor Mike Pence was stuck toggling between playing cleanup for Trump's missteps and staking out substantive policy positions his boss still hasn't clearly defined. 
 
 But the biggest surprise was how this debate exposed the looming cultural choice facing white men in this election. Trump lost women and minority voters ages ago -- Latinos, and African-Americans -- not just with his flippant misogynistic and racist comments, but his doubling down in defense of policies that reflect those deplorable values. 
 
 Yet, Tuesday's debate drew a sharp contrast between the two tickets, laying bare the choice facing white, middle class voters using two people who look just like them. 
 
 Kaine made the case for how white men can back a woman for President, support local police while believing racial bias exists, and hold personal religious values dear while not pushing them on the broader public. Kaine used Trump's tax record to hammer home that Trump cannot relate to middle class economic struggles. 
 
 Pence helped Republicans feel their conservative values were still present in this election, shoring up evangelical support for Trump, but doing nothing to appeal to a broader undecided audience. In a year that has often pitted white families against minorities in politics and in social justice movements, Tim Kaine made the stronger case for a broader coalition of American values. 
 
 Nayyera Haq is a former White House Senior Director and State Department spokesperson under the Obama administration, Nayyera is a regular commentator on politics and current affairs. She supports Hillary Clinton. 
 
 Buck Sexton: Tuesday night a sign of what's to come Sunday? 
 
 Buck Sexton 
 
 The veep debate felt much like an extension of the presidential debate before it, as the two contenders on stage focused more on top-of-ticket targets than each other. Both Mike Pence and Tim Kaine hammered at the opposing side's would-be president. Overall, substantive policy discussions took a rear seat to the back and forth of political attacks -- and personal insults -- directed at Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. This was a proxy battle, with each surrogate taking the biggest swings at the other team's presidential nominee. 
 
 As for the head-to-head aspect of it, Pence won the debate against Kaine. In tone and style, he came across as more measured, poised and statesmanlike. Pence also made a much more coherent case against Hillary Clinton -- both on her record and her judgment -- than anything Trump pulled together in the first debate. Pence had much more difficulty defending Trump's record, however, as he often was left shaking his head without a response when asked about a specific Trump quote. 
 
 Kaine was in full assault mode the whole time. His supporters probably enjoyed this, but stylistically he came across as rude, snippy and snide. He constantly interrupted Pence, engaged in so much crosstalk that it was difficult to know what anyone was saying, and repeated an endless string of talking points meant to undermine the Republican nominee while skipping over the moderator's questions whenever Clinton's weaknesses were at issue. 
 
 It's unlikely the debate will sway many voters in any direction, but perhaps Kaine and Pence's feisty exchange is a prelude to a much more fiery event coming up between Trump and Clinton this Sunday. 
 
 Buck Sexton is a political commentator for CNN and host of "The Buck Sexton Show" on TheBlaze . He was previously a CIA counterterrorism analyst. He has endorsed Donald Trump for the presidency. 
 
 Frida Ghitis: Pence smooth, but can't defend Trump 
 
 Frida Ghitis 
 
 After Tuesday's vice presidential clash, I have a suggestion for the Commission on Presidential Debates: Donald Trump should debate Mike Pence. 
 
 Governor Pence, Trump's choice for running mate, presented some interesting policy proposals to the public. They just didn't sound very much like those of his current boss, Donald Trump. 
 
 The most startling of all was Pence's talk about Vladimir Putin, "the small, bullying leader of Russia," as Pence called him. 
 
 Trump has praised Putin's leadership qualities and warmly embraced the Russian autocrat throughout the campaign. A few weeks ago, during the Commander-in-Chief forum, Trump told Matt Lauer that Putin, "says great things about me, I'm going to say great things about him." Then he went on to rave about Putin's high approval ratings. That's the same Putin that Pence claims his team wants to forcefully take on. 
 
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 On Syria, Pence outlined a policy that does not resemble any of what Trump has said. Trump has spoken of attacking ISIS and leaving in place the dictator Bashar al-Assad, responsible for far more deaths than ISIS. By contrast, Pence declared that American leadership requires it protect vulnerable citizens, including the children of Aleppo. Compare that to Trump's tone on Muslims in general. 
 
 Pence did make an effort to defend his running mate, but it was a bizarre tactic. When his challenger, Governor Tim Kaine, quoted Trump's own highly offensive words, Pence repeatedly shook his head as if saying no, and laughed, appearing to deny the quotes that were almost all quite accurate. Then, when his turn came to speak, he did not refute Kaine's statements citing Trump's own words. 
 
 But then, at one point, he did refute them. Kaine listed a series of Trump insults that all Americans have heard; attacks against a Mexican judge, disdain for John McCain being captured in Vietnam, and others. Incredibly, Pence seemed to deny the words everyone has heard. "If Donald Trump had said all the things you said he said in the way he's said them," he said, it would still not compare to Hillary Clinton's "basket of deplorables." 
 
 Pence tried to paint Clinton as the one responsible for running an "insult-driven campaign." But Americans have heard Trump. Pence's smooth debate skills cannot erase that. 
 
 Another Pence excuse, this one on abortion, won't cut it. Trump told Chris Mathews that "there has to be some form of punishment" for women who have abortions." Pence excused it saying Trump is "not a polished politician." 
 
 Pence is a polished politician. It showed in the debate. But he failed to defend Trump's policies. 
 
 Frida Ghitis is a world affairs columnist for The Miami Herald and World Politics Review, and a former CNN producer and correspondent. Follow her @FridaGhitis 
 
 Haroon Moghul: Pence's dishonesty is spiritually toxic, socially radioactive 
 
 Haroon Moghul 
 
 When the five wizards arrived in Middle Earth many years ago, the shipwright Cirdan gave his Ring of Power to Gandalf, not the leading wizard, Saruman. Cirdan chose wisely: While Gandalf would rally men and elves against Sauron's evil, Saruman not only conceded to tyranny, but embraced it. 
 
 If there's a reason Tolkien's "The Lord of the Rings" endures, it's because it isn't really fantasy. It is a kind of scripture. I'm not claiming Donald Trump is Sauron. I am, however, arguing that we can get an insight into what happened to Mike Pence by seeing how great writers explore the effect of power on the human soul. 
 
 Sen. Tim Kaine repeatedly cited Trump's most egregious comments, but all Pence did was deny Trump ever said any such thing. We have a non-focus grouped term for that. Lying. Pence may have lied more than Trump did, and that's a historic achievement. 
 
 So whether Pence loses the debate in the court of public opinion is secondary. Whether he becomes vice president almost does not matter. Pence's dishonesty is not just spiritually toxic, but socially radioactive. If the top of your ticket indulges anti-Semitism, moots war crimes, mocks veterans, shames women, and mines Breitbart for campaign direction, then you're no different. 
 
 What difference does it make if you're not a racist, but you want a racist to become president? Donald Trump was the test God placed before Mike Pence, and he failed. That's so much worse than losing. 
 
 Haroon Moghul is a senior fellow at the Center for Global Policy. His next book, "How to be a Muslim," will be out in 2017. 
 
 Lanhee J. Chen: If Pence had been at the top of the ticket... 
 
 Lanhee J. Chen 
 
 Mike Pence delivered a performance Tuesday night that left conservatives swooning and may have fueled the consolidation of Republican support for Trump. 
 
 He successfully prosecuted the case against Hillary Clinton, remained cool even under constant interruptions from Tim Kaine, and articulated a conservative vision of governance in the post-Obama era. 
 
 Some conservatives (including me) are left wondering how different this electoral cycle might be if Pence was at the top of the ticket instead. But while Pence's performance Tuesday evening will be a bright spot in what has otherwise been an abysmal stretch for the Trump campaign, it's not immediately clear whether a vice presidential debate will impact the race more broadly. And over the next week, the Trump campaign will surely be asked to reconcile the differences in policy positions articulated by Pence and Trump on areas such as U.S. policy toward Russia and Syria. 
 
 It's ultimately up to Trump to turn in a better performance on Sunday in St. Louis and again when he and Hillary Clinton debate in Las Vegas on October 19, if he wants to alter the trajectory of his own campaign. And, at the end of the day, while Pence presented very well, he's not the one running for president. 
 
 Lanhee J. Chen is a CNN Political Commentator and the David and Diane Steffy Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He was the policy director on the Romney-Ryan 2012 campaign and participated extensively in preparing Romney for his debate performances. 
 
 Ruth Ben-Ghiat: Pence won, but Americans could lose 
 
 Ruth Ben-Ghiat 
 
 For much of the campaign, Governor Mike Pence has been treated by his authoritarian running mate, Donald Trump, as a kind of afterthought. Tuesday night, though, Pence demonstrated that he can best even Trump in the fine art of denial. Pence smoothly denied documented statements and actions by Trump, or else refuted the existence of the issue altogether. "Ours is an insult-driven campaign?" Pence asked, as though he'd never heard anything so ludicrous. 
 
 Most notably, Pence refused to talk about Trump's racism. Pence sidestepped a question from moderator Elaine Quijano about the black Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina being stopped multiple times by police, and dismissed notions of implicit bias as "badmouthing" law enforcement. He chided Kaine for "whipping out that Mexican thing again," as though calling Mexicans rapists should be no big deal. 
 
 Pence's astonishing ability to deny everything perfectly expresses the GOP leadership's refusal to acknowledge what they have unleashed in America by nominating Trump. It helps to soothe the consciences of Speaker Paul Ryan, Senator John McCain, and all others who refuse to retract their endorsement of this rogue individual, no matter what he says or does. 
 
 Next to Pence, Kaine came off as irascible and unable to stop his interrupting and over talk. Pence won this debate, but Americans will be the losers if he and Trump prevail on November 8. 
 
 Ruth Ben-Ghiat is a professor of history and Italian studies at New York University, a specialist in 20th-century European history and a frequent contributor to CNN Opinion. Her latest book is "Italian Fascism's Empire Cinema." She supports Hillary Clinton for the presidency. 
 
 Angela Rye: What was that? 
 
 My review of the VP debate in two words: wack sauce...like what WAS that?! Two career public servants met on the debate stage to argue about who was more "establishment." Yet the challenge? Nobody knows their names. 
 
 Tuesday night, the two VP candidates had an opportunity to be the chief spokespersons for their leaders while simultaneously assisting the American public in getting to know them better. Early on, I got the sense that Mike Pence laughed to keep from crying the entire night. I also thought his smug appearance, constant head shaking, and outcry that Tim Kaine's mere repetition of Trump's words were "nonsense," was condescension and arrogance. 
 
 Pence is probably wondering how he got here (until he realizes he was not likely to win a gubernatorial re-election anyway). He kept saying Kaine's statements were nonsense. His strategy was simple: say everything Kaine says about Trump is ridiculous -- pray you don't get fact checked. 
 
 Kaine would have one upped if he had said: "you're absolutely right. Your candidate's disregard for humanity and dangerous rhetoric is nonsense -- that nonsense has an audience and it has become poisonous and violent." 
 
 There were so many missed moments starting with the moderator: if she was fact checking, Kaine wouldn't be the only one cutting Pence off. 
 
 Angela Rye is a CNN political commentator, NPR political analyst and CEO of IMPACT Strategies, a political advocacy firm in Washington. She is also a former Congressional Black Caucus executive director and general counsel. She supports Hillary Clinton. You can follow her on Twitter @angela_rye and on Instagram @angelarye 
 
 Raul Reyes: Governor... please 
 
 Raul Reyes 
 
 "Governor, please." Those were the words of moderator Elaine Quijano, midway through the debate, as she tried to keep Mike Pence from interrupting his rival Tim Kaine. She could well have been articulating the thoughts of millions of American viewers, who might be excused for thinking that Pence did not know his running mate was actually Donald Trump. Time and again, Pence seemed most annoyed when Kaine recited Trump's own words back to him. 
 
 In the "Battle of the Dads" Tuesday night, Tim Kaine came prepared to fight -- and he clearly won the evening's face-off. The sparkle in his eye as he landed his jabs contrasted nicely with Pence's monotone delivery and occasional flashes of annoyance. Kaine pounded Pence with Trump's refusal to release his tax returns, his murky ties to Russia, and his misogynistic and anti-Latino comments. Kaine drove these points so repeatedly and strongly that at one point Pence sighed with irritation and said, "You've whipped out that Mexican thing again." Does he not realize that "that Mexican thing" is one reason Trump is hitting historic lows with Latino voters? 
 
 Kaine was fiercely on-message tonight. He did a good job in laying out the stark differences between Clinton and Trump on immigration, calling Trump's plan "Deportation Nation." He crystallized the complicated abortion issue into one simple question, asking Pence why he didn't trust women to make their reproductive choices themselves. 
 
 Still, Kaine failed to bring up one of Pence's vulnerabilities -- his history of anti-LGBT legislation cloaked as religious freedom. At a time when marriage equality is the law of the land and most Americans -- especially young people -- support LGBT rights, this was money left on the table. Kaine also missed the opportunity to mention the fact that Pence has accepted the Medicaid expansion in his state under the the Affordable Care Act -- something at odds with Trump's opposition to "Obamacare." 
 
 For his part, Pence struggled to explain how the Trump tax plans would benefit all Americans. He completely avoided Quijano's question about dealing with homegrown terrorism, and when asked about North Korea nuclear policy, pivoted to discussing the Clinton Foundation. Tellingly, one moment when Pence did not have anything to say was when Kaine brought up Trump's attacks on Judge Gonzalo Curiel because of his Mexican-American heritage. Here, Pence's silence spoke volumes. 
 
 To be fair, Pence had the unenviable job of attempting to do damage control after Trump's disastrous debate performance last month. But he really didn't do himself any favors in the credibility department when he accused the Clinton/Kaine ticket of running an "insult-driven campaign." The facts say otherwise -- "Crooked Hillary" comes to mind -- as even causal observers of the presidential race know. As moderator Quijano might say, "Governor... please." 
 
 Raul A. Reyes is an attorney and member of the USA Today board of contributors. Follow him @RaulAReyes 
 
 Julian Zelizer: The start of Pence 2020? 
 
 Julian Zelizer 
 
 Both campaigns will find something to be pleased about with the debate. If Clinton wanted an in-your-face attack dog, Tim Kaine answered the call. He took some tough shots at Donald Trump and everything that the Republican campaign has supported. He reiterated most of the key talking points from the campaign, right from the start of the night. 
 
 When Mike Pence brought up the Clinton Foundation, Kaine turned the conversation to what he sees as the much more egregious and less altruistic nature of the Trump Foundation. 
 
 Most importantly, Kaine forced Pence into the uncomfortable position of being challenged to defend Trump's most outrageous, polemical and insulting comments about women, Mexicans and Muslims. Mostly Pence side-stepped the points Kaine made. 
 
 "I'm just saying facts about your candidate, and you can't defend him," Kaine said when Pence complained about their "insult-driven" campaign. 
 
 But Pence achieved his goal in this debate, which was simply to provide some positive coverage for the Republican ticket and offer an image of the ticket that differs from everything Trump has conveyed. Of course, the bar was low after Trump's performance in the first debate. Throughout most of the back-and-forth, Pence appeared calmer and more deliberative than his opponent. If Kaine wanted to provoke him in the same way that Clinton did with Trump, he was not able to do so. 
 
 This time, it was the Democrat who kept interrupting and throwing out attack lines. Pence was able to express some of the major lines of Republican criticism against Clinton's policy record, something that Trump has mostly failed to do. He brought in the attacks on whether voters can trust Clinton without letting the issue overwhelm his argument. 
 
 Pence scored some points by responding to the claims about Trump's insults by pointing to Clinton's line about half of Trump's supporters being in the basket of "deplorables". 
 
 Kaine's aggressive demeanor, filled with endless interruptions and jabs, will not play well with some voters. Pence's statements about religion and abortion are sure to comfort some Republicans who are uneasy with their nominee. 
 
 Republicans were absolutely desperate to halt the stream of negative news stories coming out about the Trump campaign that has dominated the past week and, in this respect, Pence achieved his goal. 
 
 The challenge for the Republicans though is that Trump is still at the top of the ticket, with all the negatives he has brought to the party. With Trump live tweeting insulting comments throughout the debate, the real question is whether this has any impact at all on the polls. 
 
 There is little evidence that Trump will show any signs of remorse about his style or about his policies. Trump is also in the middle of preparing for a town hall debate on Sunday that will give Clinton a huge opportunity to use her seasoned campaign skills a second time around. 
 
 In the end, it might be that Pence's biggest accomplishment Tuesday night was to help him launch a possible presidential ticket of his own for 2020. 
 
 Roxanne Jones: Pence is polished, but Is that enough? 
 
 When you know it's wrong, just be quiet and move on. That was the strategy adopted by Governor Mike Pence at Tuesday night's vice presidential debate when it came to defending his Presidential running mate Donald Trump. 
 
 Repeatedly, Pence declined to defend some of the more flammable issues surrounding Trump. On Trump's not paying taxes, insulting immigrants, Muslims, women, business deals with Vladimir Putin's Russia -- Pence was mostly silent. Clearly, Pence does not believe in everything Trump is selling. No matter how many times Senator Tim Kaine tried to bait Pence, he stood firm, opting to defend his own conservative legacy and reputation instead of getting mired in Trump's drama. Smart move. 
 
 Kaine, who it turns out, isn't just a mild-mannered nice guy, was a breath of fresh air. He came into the debate armed with information and talking points on Hillary, ready to pounce. And he seemed just the right amount of fed up. Maybe it's the fighter in me, but I liked his fire. 
 
 True, Kaine acted at times like an over-eager kid trying to hard to impress us, but at least he wholeheartedly believes in what he and Hillary Clinton are trying to sell to the American public. He believes in her. 
 
 Unlike Pence, Kaine doesn't not give the impression that the main reason he's on the ticket is to enhance his own political stature, or even worse, be a babysitter for a wayward president. Integrity matters. The win goes to Tim Kaine, by an edge. 
 
 Roxanne Jones, a founding editor of ESPN Magazine and former vice president at ESPN, has worked as a producer and as a reporter at the New York Daily News and The Philadelphia Inquirer. She was named a 2010 Woman of the Year by Women in Sports and Events, is a co-author of "Say It Loud: An Illustrated History of the Black Athlete," and CEO of the Push Marketing Group.
– Donald Trump was pretty pleased with his performance against Hillary Clinton at Monday's debate, even though scientific polls—not the easily manipulated online polls that Trump is citing—show most Americans pick Clinton as the clear victor. Even some of his own campaign advisers don't feel he was on point enough during the head-to-head, though they're framing it as "missed opportunities" rather than total failure. And so the strategy for Oct. 9's debate is reportedly getting an overhaul, with more role-playing practice, facts study, and even rehearsing how to move around the stage for the town-hall-style event, per the New York Times. What these advisers, who spoke anonymously to the paper, are worried about, however, is whether Trump will agree to this prep. Complicating things: Some say he actually was drilled on how to combat Clinton on certain issues and that he just chose not to. Others point the finger at Trump's extremely busy schedule in the days before the debate and too many people (up to a dozen, some with not much political acumen) giving him conflicting suggestions. Sources say his debate training was "unconventional," with Trump unable to concentrate during more traditional sessions and preferring to simply dish with advisers rather than have mock debates. Trump himself told Fox News he found it hard to segue into some of those challenges against Clinton on the debate stage, such as the subject of Benghazi. Trump's pulling back—he stopped attacking Clinton and even grew "subdued" as the debate proceeded—has got to change the next time around, frustrated aides say. Instead, he has to set Clinton's vulnerabilities in his sights and stick to his plan for the whole night. "It clearly looked like he ran out of gas after 30 minutes [in the New York debate], and that came through loud and clear," a senior political strategist tells the Times.