CLOSE There are five senators that could make or break Trump's Supreme Court nominee. Eliza Collins reports. USA TODAY 
 
 President Donald Trump speaks during a salute to service dinner at the Greenbrier Resort on June 3, 2018 in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia. The president was participating in a military tribute on the eve of Independence Day. (Photo: Mark Wilson, Getty Images) 
 
 WASHINGTON — A handful of moderate senators will likely determine the fate of President Trump’s next Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh, and they’re already in the hot seat as advocacy groups on the right and left prepare for a pitched confirmation battle. 
 
 Trump named Kavanaugh to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy Monday evening and the confirmation vote will be close because Republicans hold a narrow 51-to-49 margin in the Senate. 
 
 Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has been absent while battling brain cancer, leaving the GOP majority almost no room for defections — unless a few Democrats break with their party and support Trump’s pick. Three Democrats voted with Senate Republicans last year to confirm Trump's first Supreme Court nominee, Neil Gorsuch. 
 
 Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said he wants to move quickly on the nomination and hold a Senate floor vote this fall, before the midterm elections. 
 
 There are at least six senators to watch as the skirmishing starts — two Republicans and four Democrats — with abortion a central issue in deliberations on both sides. 
 
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 Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine 
 
 Collins is the most moderate Republican in the Senate, and she's been the most outspoken Republican so far about the pending Supreme Court vacancy. An abortion rights supporter, Collins has said she would have deep misgivings about a nominee who opposes Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 decision legalizing abortion. 
 
 Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) attends a lunch meeting for Republican lawmakers in the Cabinet Room at the White House June 26, 2018 in Washington, DC. Collins is a moderate Republican being watched closely for her vote on the president's Supreme Court nomination. (Photo: Pool, Getty Images) 
 
 "A candidate for this important position who would overturn Roe v. Wade would not be acceptable to me, because that would indicate an activist agenda that I don’t want to see a judge have,” Collins said earlier this month in an interview with ABC’s “This Week.” 
 
 "What I want to see is a nominee who, regardless of his or her personal views on the very difficult and contentious life issue, is going to respect precedent," the Maine Republican said. 
 
 Collins, who has bucked her party on other key issues such as health care, said she plans to have an in-depth conversation with Trump's nominee. She said there were certain names on the president's short list who she would not support, although she didn't specify who those people were. 
 
 Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska 
 
 Murkowski has been more circumspect in her public comments, but the Alaska Republican also has an independent streak and supports abortion rights. 
 
 Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, walks to the U.S. Capitol before voting against the Senate health care bill on July 27, 2017. (Photo: Justin Sullivan, Getty Images) 
 
 Speaking at a news conference in Anchorage last Monday, Murkowski said Trump should pick a nominee in the same mold as Kennedy and highlighted his role as the swing vote in many consequential decisions, according to the Associated Press. 
 
 Murkowski has not said how abortion would factor in to her decision on Trump's proposed replacement. But she vowed to cast an "independent" vote. 
 
 “My standards for Supreme Court nominees are extremely high," she said in a statement after Kennedy announced his retirement. "It is my longstanding practice to carefully scrutinize the qualifications of judicial nominees and to cast an independent vote when judicial nominations come before the Senate." 
 
 Sen. Joe Donnelly, D-Ind. 
 
 Of the 49 senators who caucus with the Democrats, Donnelly may be under the most intense political pressure over this vote. The Indiana Democrat is a top GOP target in this fall's elections, and he faces a tough climate in a state Trump won by 19 percentage points. 
 
 Sen. Joe Donnelly speaks during Indiana's March for Our Lives rally at the Indiana Statehouse in Indianapolis, Ind., Saturday, March 24, 2018, part of a national student-led movement to end gun violence. Donnelly is one of a group of red state Democrats who could vote with Republicans to confirm the president's Supreme Court nominee. (Photo: Jenna Watson, Indianapolis Star-USA TODAY NETWORK) 
 
 To win re-election, Donnelly needs an energized Democratic base and strong support among suburban women, among other constituencies. A no vote on the nominee could thrill those critical voting blocs — but motivate more Republicans to turn out against him. 
 
 Plus, Donnelly is one of the few Democrats who opposes abortion rights, except in cases of rape, incest and to save the life of the mother. He has declined to say whether he thinks Roe v. Wade should be overturned. 
 
 Donnelly has said he would not use any “litmus test” in deciding how to vote on Trump’s high court nominee. And like Murkowski, he said he would like the president to select a moderate nominee "in the mold of Anthony Kennedy." 
 
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 Donnelly said he delivered that message directly to Trump when they met at the White House last week to discuss the issue. 
 
 "I said, 'Mr. President, we need you to select a moderate. Someone who is common sense, someone in the mold of Anthony Kennedy, because we need to bring our country together,'" Donnelly told a reporter with the USA TODAY Network. 
 
 Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D. 
 
 Heitkamp is another one of Republicans’ top pick-off opportunities in November, and she’s likely to be feeling the heat from his supporters to back his nominee. Trump won Heitkamp’s state by 36 percentage points. She touts her record of voting with the president more than half the time, but also says she won't be a rubber stamp when she disagrees. 
 
 In this March 17, 2018, file photo, Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp arrives for the state Democratic party convention in Grand Forks, N.D. Heitkamp is one of a group of Democrats facing tough re-elections who could vote for President Trump's Supreme Court nominee. (Photo: James MacPherson, AP) 
 
 Heitkamp met with the president last week to discuss his pick for the Supreme Court. She said she urged Trump to pick someone like Kennedy who would not stick rigidly to party lines. 
 
 "I told the president that he has a chance to unite the country by nominating a true non-ideological jurist who could gain strong support from senators on both sides of the aisle, rather than create more divisions," Heitkamp said. 
 
 Heitkamp has voted in favor of abortion rights and said in a statement to USA TODAY Tuesday that it was “very important” that the nominee respect long-settled precedent. 
 
 Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va. 
 
 West Virginia went for Trump by a whopping 42 percentage points, more than any state besides Wyoming. Manchin has tried to align himself with the president and has not ruled out backing the president in 2020. 
 
 West Virginia Sen.Joe Manchin speaks during a hearing in Washington, DC on May 22, 2018. Manchin could vote with Republicans to confirm President Trump's pick for the Supreme Court. (Photo: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds, AFP/Getty Images) 
 
 Manchin is against abortion and has voted with Republicans on the issue. But the West Virginia Democrat has not said if a nominee vowing to overturn Roe v. Wade would swing his vote. Still, Manchin said on a local radio station that a nominee who was “hardcore on Roe v. Wade” would be a “bigger lift” to confirm because the country was equally divided on abortion, according to The Hill. 
 
 “I think he needs to get a jurist basically looking at the law. The Roe v. Wade has been the law for 40-some years," Manchin said. 
 
 Manchin's spokesman Jonathan Kott told USA TODAY that the most important quality the West Virginia senator was looking for in a nominee didn't have to do with abortion, but health care. Kott said Manchin didn't want a nominee who had publicly opposed the Affordable Care Act. 
 
 Sen. Doug Jones, D-Ala. 
 
 Unlike other the other Senate Democrats on this list, Jones is not up for re-election this year. And Jones was not in the Senate when the chamber voted on Trump's first Supreme Court pick last year. 
 
 Jones won a special election in December, becoming the first Democrat in 25 years to represent Alabama in the Senate. He beat Republican Roy Moore, who was tarnished by allegations that he had inappropriate contact with teenage girls when he was in his 30s. 
 
 Jones will almost certainly be under pressure from constituents to support Trump's nominee, since Alabama is an overwhelmingly conservative state and the president won there in 2016 by 28 percentage points. But liberal groups — and the Senate's Democratic leadership – will also be lobbying him to vote no. 
 
 In an interview with CNN on Sunday, Jones said he would approach the nominee with an open mind. 
 
 "I don’t think my role is a rubber stamp for the president, but it’s not an automatic knee-jerk 'no' either," Jones said. "I'm going to make an independent judgment." 
 
 Contributing: Maureen Groppe and Jessica Estepa 
 
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 During a rally in North Dakota Wednesday night, President Trump underscored the importance of protecting the GOP's Senate majority this fall, deeming it especially critical in the wake of Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy's retirement. 
 
 "Justice Kennedy's retirement makes the issue of Senate control one of the vital issues of our time — the most important thing we can do," Trump told a crowd in Fargo. 
 
 The president was there to campaign for Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer, who's challenging Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in one of the GOP's top opportunities to pick up a Senate seat. North Dakota is one of 10 states that Trump carried in 2016 in which Democratic incumbents are up for re-election — and he won North Dakota by about 36 points. 
 
 Trump argued that Cramer would support his agenda and, most importantly, his court picks, while Heitkamp will not. 
 
 "Heidi will vote no to any pick we make for the Supreme Court. She will be told to do so," Trump said. 
 
 Heitkamp, however, was one of three Democrats to vote in favor of Trump's first Supreme Court nominee, now-Justice Neil Gorsuch. 
 
 Trump didn't directly mention that vote, but did later claim that sometimes Heitkamp would give Republicans and the White House a "quickie vote" but that "the day after that election, she's voting party line, 100 percent." 
 
 NPR Politics Podcast Analysis: Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy's Retirement Analysis: Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy's Retirement Listen · 22:57 22:57 
 
 In a statement after the rally, Heitkamp pushed back, saying she would continue to be her own person in the Senate, election year or not. 
 
 "Anytime the president comes to North Dakota, that's a good thing for our state. While we saw election-year politics today, I'm always willing to work with the president if he's helping North Dakota — and if he's not, I'll speak up," Heitkamp said. "I don't answer to a political party or president, I only answer to North Dakotans, who deserve an independent voice in the Senate. That's why I've always been eager to work across the aisle — including with the president — to get results for our state, and today's rally hasn't changed that." 
 
 Trump continued to tie Heitkamp to the national party throughout the rally nonetheless. 
 
 "When Heidi ran for office, she promised to be an independent vote for the people of North Dakota. Instead, she went to Washington and immediately joined Chuck — you know who Chuck is," Trump said, referring to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., "and Nancy," that is, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. Trump also railed on Democrats' "new leader," Maxine Waters, hitting the liberal California congresswoman who came under fire even from her own leadership in her call for public confrontations against Trump administration officials. 
 
 Trump hit on many of his favorite subjects during the freewheeling rally — immigration, tax cuts, trade, the economy, reveling in his 2016 victory, boasting about the size of the crowd and more. But the Kennedy retirement hung over the night, and Trump also took time in his remarks to honor the retiring justice — an unpredictable swing vote who hasn't always been a favorite of conservatives despite being nominated by President Ronald Reagan. Trump called Kennedy a "very special guy" and promised that he would pick someone with "intellect" as his successor, someone he suggested could serve on the court for 40 or more years. 
 
 "I'm very honored that he chose to [retire] during my term in office. He felt confident in me to make the right choice to carry on his great legacy," Trump said. 
 
 Heitkamp and other red state Democrats will play a crucial role in determining how much resistance a new Supreme Court nominee is met with. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell — who controversially blocked President Obama's nominee to succeed the late Justice Antonin Scalia until after the 2016 election, allowing Trump to fill the seat with Gorsuch — has indicated he wants a vote ahead of the 2018 midterms. But Democrats have called such a decision hypocrisy, given McConnell's insistence against holding a confirmation hearing during an election year. 
 
 The Senate is currently split 51-49 for Republicans, but Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has been absent for months battling brain cancer, so the margin for error is even smaller. There are some GOP wildcard votes too — Maine Sen. Susan Collins and Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski support abortion rights, and one reason Trump supporters are cheering a Kennedy replacement — and Democrats are so fearful — is the belief that a new justice could help overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 case that legalized abortion. 
 
 Along with Heitkamp, Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Joe Donnelly of Indiana also voted to confirm Gorsuch last year — and the trio of often centrist Democrats are considered some of the most endangered Senate incumbents in November's elections. Given their re-election concerns, they could be under pressure to do so again with Trump's new Supreme Court nominee. Even so, Trump made it clear with Heitkamp on Wednesday night, that won't earn them a pass ahead of the November elections from him or Republicans. ||||| President Donald Trump, waves as he walks across the South Lawn of the White House in Washington with first lady Melania Trump, center, and Amalija Knavs, right, mother of first lady Melania Trump, Friday,... (Associated Press) 
 
 President Donald Trump, waves as he walks across the South Lawn of the White House in Washington with first lady Melania Trump, center, and Amalija Knavs, right, mother of first lady Melania Trump, Friday, June 29, 2018, for the short flight to nearby Andrews Air Force Base, Md. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez... (Associated Press) 
 
 President Donald Trump, waves as he walks across the South Lawn of the White House in Washington with first lady Melania Trump, center, and Amalija Knavs, right, mother of first lady Melania Trump, Friday, June 29, 2018, for the short flight to nearby Andrews Air Force Base, Md. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez... (Associated Press) President Donald Trump, waves as he walks across the South Lawn of the White House in Washington with first lady Melania Trump, center, and Amalija Knavs, right, mother of first lady Melania Trump, Friday,... (Associated Press) 
 
 WASHINGTON (AP) — A key Democratic senator is urging President Donald Trump not to pick a Supreme Court nominee who's openly interested in overturning Roe v. Wade. 
 
 West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin said Friday it would be tougher to confirm someone who would revamp the landmark decision. 
 
 "I'm pro-life, but I know how that divides our country immediately, divides everyone," Manchin said during an interview on a West Virginia radio station. 
 
 "All that stuff is red flags for all Americans," Manchin said, adding he told the president he told the president the same about repealing the Affordable Care Act. 
 
 "If he picks somebody that's hardcore on Roe v. Wade or that's hardcore on repealing healthcare that's a bigger lift," Manchin said. "I'm looking for someone who doesn't wear their own politics on their sleeve, being a jurist." 
 
 The senator was among several key Democrats and Republicans meeting with Trump late Thursday at the White House as the administration prepares to move quickly to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy by fall. 
 
 The Supreme Court opening poses a tough test for Democratic senators up for re-election this year in the states that Trump won in 2016, particularly Manchin, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Sen. Joe Donnelly of Indiana. 
 
 But it also creates a career-defining dilemma for two key Republican women, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine and Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who support access to abortion services. 
 
 Trump swiftly invited all five to the White House to meet Thursday evening, the day after Kennedy's stunning announcement. 
 
 "What do you think?" Trump asked Manchin. "I said Mr. President, that's your choice." 
 
 What's becoming clear, though, is that to win over some of the senators, the administration will need to steer away from a nominee with widely and publicly shared personal views on abortion or overturning Roe vs. Wade. 
 
 The Senate is bracing for a brutal confirmation process over one of the most divisive issues in the nation at a time when tensions are running high, but civil discourse is frayed, ahead of the November elections that could determine control of Congress. 
 
 At the White House, the senators took turns meeting with Trump. Donnelly went in first to meet with the president and reported afterward they had a productive conversation. The Republican women, Collins and Murkowski filed in next together. Manchin was third. Then Heitkamp of North Dakota. 
 
 Heitkamp said the president should think about a nominee who could unite, rather than divide, the country. 
 
 "I told the president that he has a chance to unite the country by nominating a true non-ideological jurist who could gain strong support from senators on both sides of the aisle, rather than create more divisions," she said in a statement. 
 
 Heitkamp said she stressed the importance of a nominee "who is pragmatic, fair, compassionate, committed to justice, and above politics." 
 
 The three Democrats have broken with their party when it comes to some of Trump's most important nominations. They were the only Democrats to have voted for Trump's first Supreme Court selection, Neil Gorsuch. 
 
 But opposing Trump's next Supreme Court nomination could dissolve some of the goodwill they've built up with Trump supporters — who just so happen to represent most voters in their state. Trump won West Virginia by 42 percentage points in the 2016 election, North Dakota by 36 percentage points and Indiana by more than 19 percentage points. 
 
 At the same time, supporting Trump's nominee could bring its own political peril for Democrats — and the two Republicans — whose votes could be seen as the ones that could tip the 4-4 split on the court after Kennedy's departure toward conservatives for a generation to come. 
 
 "For voters in deep-red states who support Trump, this will be the litmus-test vote for whether you have President Trump's back or not," said Steven Law, president of the Senate Leadership Fund, a campaign group aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. An affiliated group began running ads Thursday in 10 states that Trump won in 2016 where Democratic senators are now up for re-election. 
 
 The Senate is bracing for Trump to announce a quick nominee as soon as July 10. Trump already has a list of potential court nominees and McConnell has signaled he wants to have a justice confirmed by October, which would be before the midterm election — even though Democrats are pushing to delay it until after voters have cast ballots in November. 
 
 "We should be able to work our way through the confirmation process sometime before early fall," McConnell told Fox News Thursday. "Hopefully in time for the new justice to begin the fall term of the Supreme Court." 
 
 Democratic consultant and pollster Paul Maslin disputed the notion that the vote puts the incumbents in a tough spot. With Trump's approval ratings at 41 percent he's said it's no surprise the president is trying to highlight the Supreme Court vote to push voters to the polls. 
 
 "They're looking for anything and everything to motivate their base because they know they've got a big problem on their hands," said Maslin. 
 
 Maslin said the court opening might even end up helping the Democratic incumbents if voters become worried that a tilt to the right will endanger abortion rights, gay rights and access to health care. 
 
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 Reach Freking at https://twitter.com/APKFreking and Mascaro at https://twitter.com/LisaMascaro
– The fallout from Anthony Kennedy's bombshell decision to retire from the Supreme Court continues to resonate, with President Trump saying he's "honored" that Kennedy has given him an opportunity to pick a successor. Of course, getting him confirmed is another issue, and the Hill digs into the political logistics in the Senate. Republicans have the numbers, but two wild cards are Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, both of whom support abortion rights and will likely have a big say in who comes next. A remedy: At Vox, Ezra Klein writes that both parties are guilty of turning the nomination process into an "insane" one, given the stakes. At this point, if one party held the White House and the other the Senate, it's unlikely any nominee would be confirmed. His solution? Reduce the stakes by limiting justices to 10-year terms. A big percentage: The Washington Post picks out five times Kennedy cast the deciding vote on big issues, on everything from backing abortion rights to supporting gay rights to curtailing the death penalty. The story notes that of the 276 majority opinions written by Kennedy, 92 came in 5-4 decisions.