GOP Eyes Gains As Voters In 11 States Pick Governors 
 
 Jim Cole / AP i Jim Cole / AP 
 
 Voters in 11 states will pick their governors tonight, and Republicans appear on track to increase their numbers by at least one, and with the potential to extend their hold to more than two-thirds of the nation's top state offices. 
 
 Eight of the gubernatorial seats up for grabs today are now held by Democrats; three are in Republican hands. Republicans currently hold 29 governorships, Democrats have 20; and Rhode Island's Gov. Lincoln Chafee is an Independent. 
 
 Polls and race analysts suggest that only three of tonight's contests are considered competitive, all in states where incumbent Democratic governors aren't running again: Montana, New Hampshire and Washington. 
 
 While those state races remain too close to call, Republicans are expected to wrest the North Carolina governorship from Democratic control, and to easily win GOP-held seats in Utah, North Dakota and Indiana. 
 
 Democrats are likely hold on to their seats in West Virginia and Missouri; and expected to notch safe wins in races for seats they hold in Vermont and Delaware. 
 
 Holding Sway On Health Care 
 
 While the occupant of the governor's office is historically far less important than the party that controls the state legislature, top state officials in coming years are expected to wield significant influence in at least one major area. 
 
 And that's health care, says political scientist Thad Kousser, co-author of The Power of American Governors. 
 
 "No matter who wins the presidency, national politics is going to be stalemated on the Affordable Care Act," says Kousser, of the University of California-Berkeley. 
 
 A recent U.S. Supreme Court decision giving states the ability to opt out of the law's expansion of Medicaid, the federal insurance program for poor, disabled and elderly Americans, confers "incredible power" on the states and their governors, Kousser says. 
 
 Just look at what happened when the Obama administration in 2010 offered federal stimulus money to states to begin building a high-speed rail network. Three Republican governors, including Rick Scott of Florida and Scott Walker of Wisconsin, rejected a share of the money citing debt and deficit concerns. 
 
 "A [Mitt] Romney victory would dramatically empower Republican governors," Kousser says. 
 
 State-by-State View 
 
 North Carolina: One-term incumbent Democratic Gov. Beverly Perdue, the first woman to hold the state's top office, announced in January she would not seek re-election after polls showed her with high disapproval ratings and trailing Republican candidate Pat McCrory. 
 
 The seat is expected to be won by McCrory, a former Charlotte mayor, who is facing Perdue's lieutenant governor, Walter Dalton. McCrory lost a close race to Perdue in 2008, when then-presidential candidate Barack Obama became the first Democrat to win North Carolina in more than three decades. The Real Clear Politics average for the race has McCrory maintaining a 14.3 percentage point lead. 
 
 Montana: Popular Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer — he won his last election with 65 percent of the vote — has reached his two-term limit. The state's Democratic Attorney General Steve Bullock is trying to keep the seat in his party's column by associating himself with Schweitzer's legacy. He's in a tough race with former two-term GOP Rep. Rick Hill. 
 
 New Hampshire: Former Democratic state Sen. Maggie Hassan has also promised a continuation of the policies of her predecessor, retiring Democratic Gov. John Lynch. Her opponent is lawyer Ovide Lamontagne, a Tea Party conservative who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1996 and for the U.S. Senate in 2010. The national parties have invested in the campaigns, which have focused on fiscal and women's health care issues. 
 
 Washington: The state's governorship has been in Democratic hands for 32 years, and former Rep. Jay Inslee is in a dead-heat battle to keep it that way. His opponent is the state's Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna. McKenna has a proven ability to win statewide, but working in Inslee's favor are Obama's poll numbers. The Real Clear Politics average shows Obama with an average 13.6 point lead over Romney; Inslee's leading McKenna by an average of 1 percentage point. 
 
 Pretty Much Sure Things 
 
 Republican governors Jack Dalrymple in North Dakota and Gary Herbert in Utah, and GOP Rep. Mike Pence in Indiana are expected to win. So are Democratic governors Peter Shumlin in Vermont and Jack Markell in Delaware. 
 
 Democrats are also hoping to hold on to the governorship in Missouri, where Jay Nixon is running for a second term against Republican Dave Spence; and in West Virginia, where Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, former state senate president, is running for his first full term after willing a special election in 2011. GOP businessman Bill Maloney is his opponent, as he was last year. 
 
 Nixon has been consistently out-polling Spence by an average of about 7 points in Missouri. Tomblin is seen as likely to retain his seat, even in a state where Romney is leading Obama by double digits. ||||| GOP Eyes Gains As Voters In 11 States Pick Governors 
 
 Enlarge this image toggle caption Jim Cole/AP Jim Cole/AP 
 
 Voters in 11 states will pick their governors tonight, and Republicans appear on track to increase their numbers by at least one, with the potential to extend their hold to more than two-thirds of the nation's top state offices. 
 
 Eight of the gubernatorial seats up for grabs are now held by Democrats; three are in Republican hands. Republicans currently hold 29 governorships, Democrats have 20, and Rhode Island's Gov. Lincoln Chafee is an Independent. 
 
 Polls and race analysts suggest that only three of tonight's contests are considered competitive, all in states where incumbent Democratic governors aren't running again: Montana, New Hampshire and Washington. 
 
 While those state races remain too close to call, Republicans are expected to wrest the North Carolina governorship from Democratic control, and to easily win GOP-held seats in Utah, North Dakota and Indiana. 
 
 Democrats are likely to hold on to their seats in West Virginia and Missouri, and are expected to notch safe wins in races for seats they hold in Vermont and Delaware. 
 
 Holding Sway On Health Care 
 
 While the occupant of the governor's office is historically far less important than the party that controls the state legislature, top state officials in coming years are expected to wield significant influence in at least one major area. 
 
 And that's health care, says political scientist Thad Kousser, co-author of The Power of American Governors. 
 
 "No matter who wins the presidency, national politics is going to be stalemated on the Affordable Care Act," says Kousser, of the University of California, San Diego. 
 
 A recent U.S. Supreme Court decision giving states the ability to opt out of the law's expansion of Medicaid, the federal insurance program for poor, disabled and elderly Americans, confers "incredible power" on the states and their governors, Kousser says. 
 
 Just look at what happened when the Obama administration in 2010 offered federal stimulus money to states to begin building a high-speed rail network. Three Republican governors, including Rick Scott of Florida and Scott Walker of Wisconsin, rejected a share of the money citing debt and deficit concerns. 
 
 "A [Mitt] Romney victory would dramatically empower Republican governors," Kousser says. 
 
 State-By-State View 
 
 North Carolina: One-term incumbent Democratic Gov. Beverly Perdue, the first woman to hold the state's top office, announced in January that she would not seek re-election after polls showed her with high disapproval ratings and trailing Republican candidate Pat McCrory. 
 
 The seat is expected to be won by McCrory, a former Charlotte mayor, who is facing Perdue's lieutenant governor, Walter Dalton. McCrory lost a close race to Perdue in 2008, when then-presidential candidate Barack Obama became the first Democrat to win North Carolina in more than three decades. The Real Clear Politics average for the race has McCrory maintaining a 14.3 percentage point lead. 
 
 Montana: Popular Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer — he won his last election with 65 percent of the vote — has reached his two-term limit. The state's Democratic Attorney General Steve Bullock is trying to keep the seat in his party's column by associating himself with Schweitzer's legacy. He's in a tough race with former two-term GOP Rep. Rick Hill. 
 
 New Hampshire: Former Democratic state Sen. Maggie Hassan has also promised a continuation of the policies of her predecessor, retiring Democratic Gov. John Lynch. Her opponent is lawyer Ovide Lamontagne, a Tea Party conservative who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1996 and for the U.S. Senate in 2010. The national parties have invested in the campaigns, which have focused on fiscal and women's health care issues. 
 
 Washington: The state's governorship has been in Democratic hands for 32 years, and former U.S. Rep. Jay Inslee is in a dead-heat battle to keep it that way. His opponent is the state's Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna. McKenna has a proven ability to win statewide, but working in Inslee's favor are Obama's poll numbers. The Real Clear Politics average shows Obama with an average 13.6 percentage point lead over Romney; Inslee is leading McKenna by an average of 1 percentage point. 
 
 Pretty Much Sure Things 
 
 Republican Govs. Jack Dalrymple in North Dakota and Gary Herbert in Utah, and GOP Rep. Mike Pence in Indiana are expected to win. So are Democratic Govs. Peter Shumlin in Vermont and Jack Markell in Delaware. 
 
 Democrats are also hoping to hold on to the governorship in Missouri, where Jay Nixon is running for a second term against Republican Dave Spence; and in West Virginia, where Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, former state senate president, is running for his first full term after winning a special election in 2011. GOP businessman Bill Maloney is his opponent, as he was last year. 
 
 Nixon has been consistently outpolling Spence by an average of about 7 points in Missouri. Tomblin is seen as likely to retain his seat, even in a state where Romney is leading Obama by double digits. ||||| Governors' Races Could Be A Bright Spot For GOP On Election Night 
 
 Enlarge this image toggle caption Jim Cole, Wilson Ring, AJ Mast/AP Jim Cole, Wilson Ring, AJ Mast/AP 
 
 In what could be a tough election night for Republicans, governors' races may offer a rare bright spot. 
 
 Unlike in House and Senate races, Democrats are largely playing defense in the 12 gubernatorial races on the ballot Tuesday. Democrats are defending eight seats to the GOP's four. Two states — North Dakota and Utah — will safely stay in the Republicans' column, while Democrats will keep Oregon, Washington and an open Delaware seat on their side. 
 
 There are seven competitive races to watch, and six of those are firmly in the toss-up column. The presidential race will have an impact in the battleground states of New Hampshire and North Carolina, and if Hillary Clinton wins in those places she could carry Democratic candidates for governor over the finish line. But Republican nominee Donald Trump could help boost candidates in Missouri, Indiana and West Virginia. And then there's a surprising Vermont race that could see a Republican actually win the governor's mansion in what's typically a very liberal state. 
 
 Why do these governor's races matter so much? Some of the biggest policy battles in the country this year have originated on a state, not a federal, level. From environmental concerns to religious freedom laws to school choice to social issues and more, governors will be the on those frontlines. 
 
 Longer term, both parties are also casting an eye ahead to 2020 and subsequent redistricting two years later. Republicans and Democrats hope their incumbents would be in a better place in four years if they win now. 
 
 A good night for Democrats would be breaking even or losing just a net of one state. But Republicans think they could pick up one or two states. With the GOP already holding a total of 31 governorships, they only need one pick-up to match their modern-day record of controlling the governor's mansion in 32 states, set in 1998. 
 
 Here's a snapshot of each of the most competitive races: 
 
 North Carolina: R-Pat McCrory 
 
 NPR rating: Toss-Up 
 
 No governor in America may have been under more scrutiny than the once-popular McCrory over the past year. Earlier this spring, the state legislature passed, and the governor signed, the controversial HB2, or "bathroom bill," which prohibited transgender persons from using bathrooms of the gender they now identify as. There were mass protests and the state endured boycotts from businesses, sports leagues and musicians over the new law, including the NCAA, which announced last month they were relocating several championship events. 
 
 Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper has a slight edge in most polls, and hopes he'll be boosted by Democrats' intense get-out-the-vote operation across the state for the presidential and Senate race as well. Republicans have tried to discredit him over his handling of state crime labs and the State Bureau of Investigation, including rape kit backlogs and a mishandling of criminal evidence. 
 
 Republicans note that McCrory's standing has improved in the final weeks and that his approval ratings have improved because of his administration's response to flooding due to Hurricane Matthew. Democrats are still encouraged by the fact Cooper's fundraising advantage over McCrory. However, GOP turnout efforts till lag badly behind Democrats here, and that could make a big difference in all the statewide races. Although Cooper likely has a slight advantage, the race is far from a sure thing for Democrats. 
 
 Indiana: R-Open, Mike Pence running for vice president 
 
 NPR rating: Toss-Up 
 
 Pence's decision to join Trump's ticket saved him from a tough re-election race back home. Democrats were pounding him for his handling of the state's religious freedom law, but he still had the edge. Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb was chosen as the GOP replacement, but he had little time to make up ground against former Democratic state House Speaker John Gregg, who lost to Pence in 2012. 
 
 Gregg never really stopped running and Democrats say he's a better candidate this go-around. Republicans are painting Gregg as a lobbyist and political insider and for choosing "Hillary over Hoosiers," as one ad from the Republican Governors Association put it. Democrats have argued Holcomb would be Pence 2.0. 
 
 Gregg had led in polls for most of this race, but what once seemed like a tighter race on the presidential level shows movement toward the GOP in the final days — helping boost Holcomb, along with Rep. Todd Young over former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh in the Senate race. A WTHR/Howey Politics poll released Friday showed the race was a tie, and even Democrats admit undecided voters will likely break for Holcomb. 
 
 Missouri: D-Open, Jay Nixon term-limited 
 
 NPR rating: Toss-Up 
 
 Democrats' candidate here, state Attorney General Chris Koster, has bolstered his crossover appeal with endorsements from the National Rifle Association and the Missouri Farm Bureau, becoming the first statewide Democratic candidate the incredibly influential state agriculture group has ever backed. 
 
 Koster was a Republican until 2007. The GOP nominee, retired Navy SEAL Eric Greitens, is an Iraq and Afghanistan veteran who was once a Democrat. He won a bruising primary over other elected officials. Democrats have hit him over questionable campaign contributions. 
 
 But while Koster led in polls for the past few months, that advantage has entirely evaporated, and the latest surveys show the race is a statistical dead heat. Rising Obamacare premiums and new emails on Clinton's private server have helped Republicans across the country, and especially in Missouri, which has a tightening Senate race the GOP once conceded was likely lost. Republicans have been hammering Koster over that, and it seems to have taken a toll. This could be a photo-finish on Tuesday night, but Greitens has the momentum in the final days. 
 
 New Hampshire: D-Open, Hassan running for Senate 
 
 NPR Rating: Toss-Up 
 
 Republican state Executive Councilor Chris Sununu narrowly won a late GOP primary, and is armed with one of the most famous last names in the state, as the brother of former Sen. John E. Sununu and former Gov. John H. Sununu. But the younger Sununu's favorability ratings have taken a hit after Democrats have criticized him for employment practices at a ski resort he owns. Democrats hammered him with ads portraying him as rich and privileged who had things handed to him. 
 
 Democratic nominee Colin Van Ostern, also a state executive councilor, started with considerably less name ID than Sununu, and polls earlier this month had him closing the gap and even taking a very slim lead. But the Granite State is one place where Trump and Republicans have seen a resurgence in the final week of the race, and this race is knotted up again. Even Republicans think that undecided voters will probably wind up choosing Democrats, and if the state goes for Democrats in both the presidential and Senate races, Van Ostern probably wins, too. But if Trump carries this state or if Sen. Kelly Ayotte can win, Sununu could squeak in, as well. New Hampshire and Vermont are the only two state with two year terms for governors, so both parties will get a crack at this one again in 2018. 
 
 Vermont: D-Open, Peter Shumlin not running for re-election 
 
 NPR Rating: Toss-up 
 
 Here's a surprising development that's been overlooked — Republicans may very well pick up the governor's race in Vermont. That may seem shocking, given the state's heavy Democratic bent, but GOP Lt. Gov. Phil Scott is very popular and has the typical Northeastern Republican profile — socially liberal but fiscally conservative. Even Democrats expect he'll probably beat former state transportation secretary Sue Minter. There's been scant public polling here, but those surveys have Scott leading and that mirrors private polling. 
 
 Democrats are hoping that painting Scott as too conservative for the liberal state and an expected big Hillary Clinton win atop the ticket will help Minter on Election Day. But they privately grumble she hasn't run a great race against a very strong GOP candidate. She's also been hurt by sour approval ratings of outgoing Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin. In fact, a Republican governor isn't actually that unusual in the state — before Shumlin, Republican Jim Douglas served for eight years. 
 
 One thing to watch here is the if neither candidate gets a 50% plus one majority, the Vermont General Assembly picks the winner, which is how Shumlin won in 2014. Both candidates have said the legislature should pick whoever gets the most votes. 
 
 West Virginia: D-Open, Earl Ray Tomblin is term-limited 
 
 NPR Rating: Toss-up 
 
 Hillary Clinton will lose here big — possibly by as much as 30 points — so that's already a hurdle for Democrats hoping to keep this seat in their column. But Democrats in the state are used to splitting their tickets, especially for governor. Their nominee is wealthy coal executive Jim Justice, who owns the famous Greenbrier Resort. Justice has had the edge over Republican nominee Bill Cole, the state senate president, for most of the race, but is now getting criticism following an NPR investigation that showed the billionaire failed to pay millions in mine safety penalties and federal and state taxes. 
 
 Still, Democrats argue that voters like his business savvy in the same way that they like Trump. And given his background in the coal industry, Republicans have struggled to tar him on economic policy the way they do with national Democrats. Republicans hope a big Trump victory in the state will boost Cole to victory. While Justice will likely outperform Clinton significantly, his independence from the national Democratic party may not be enough. Republican ads have painted Justice as a Clinton crony, a potentially effective line of attack in this election. This one will be very close, but Republicans could finally get their first governor here in 16 years. 
 
 Montana: D-Steve Bullock 
 
 NPR Rating: Lean Democratic 
 
 Bullock has the advantage in the race for re-election over GOP nominee Greg Gianforte, a wealthy tech executive. Republicans hope Trump's expected win in Montana could push their candidate over the finish line, but Bullock will get plenty of crossover voters, and even Republicans admit Gianforte hasn't run the race he needs to in order to pull off an upset. 
 
 Democrats are painting Gianforte as too conservative for the state, tarring him as a "millionaire from New Jersey" (he moved to Montana 20 years ago) and have hit him on his positions on land access, a big issue in the state. Gianforte has argued his business background would help him bring jobs to the state, and Bullock has had to deal with his own email issues. Still, Bullock remains popular and should win.
– It's a race for the governor's mansion in 11 states today, and the GOP could end the night at the helm of more than two-thirds of the 50 states. The GOP currently controls 29 of the country's top state offices; it's expected to keep the three Republican ones that are up for grabs (Utah, North Dakota, and Indiana), and wrest North Carolina from the Dems. That brings its toll to 30, with the potential to take three more, reports NPR. Races in Montana, New Hampshire, and Washington are still too close to call, and in all three, Democrat incumbents aren't seeking reelection. The results could have a big impact on health care, since a Supreme Court ruling grants states the ability to opt out of ObamaCare's Medicaid expansion. "A Romney victory would dramatically empower Republican governors," said one analyst. Click for NPR's state-by-state breakdown of what could happen.