I’m not sure whether I render the greater disservice by contemplating the political effects of a natural disaster — or by ignoring the increasingly brisk winds whipping outside my apartment in Brooklyn. Still, I thought it was worth giving you my tentative thoughts on how Hurricane Sandy might affect the runup to next Tuesday’s election. 
 
 We may see a reduction in the number of polls issued over the coming days. The Investor’s Business Daily poll has already announced that it will suspend its national tracking poll until the storm passes, and other cancellations may follow. And certainly, any polls in the states that are most in harm’s way, including Virginia, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania, will need to be interpreted with extreme caution. 
 
 But what about the national polls that remain in the field? Could the storm affect their results? 
 
 Imagine that 15 million people are essentially off-limits to pollsters because of the hurricane, because they are without power, displaced from their homes or otherwise are well-adjusted human beings who are more interested in looking after their families than in answering a political survey. The Northeast is Democratic leaning, of course: imagine that these voters would prefer Barack Obama to Mitt Romney by a net of 20 percentage points, on average. 
 
 Fifteen million Americans represent about one-twentieth of the American population. If one-twentieth of Americans, who are 20 points Democratic-leaning, are unable to reply to surveys, Mr. Obama’s standing in the polls would be negatively impacted by a net of one percentage point as a result. 
 
 That calculation assumes, however, that pollsters are reporting their results verbatim. Instead, almost all polling firms weight their polls to cover non-response among different demographic groups. Some also weight their polls by geography, or might begin to do so because of Hurricane Sandy. This might mitigate the effects, although perhaps in unpredictable ways, since the weighting algorithms that different pollsters use are as much an art form as a science. 
 
 Some analysts have also expressed concern that the storm could depress turnout along the Eastern Seaboard on Election Day itself. Since the affected states are Democratic-leaning, and since many of them are so Democratic-leaning that they are likely to vote for Mr. Obama even in a low turnout, it is thought that this might reduce Mr. Obama’s national popular vote without hurting his standing in the Electoral College much, potentially increasing the risk of a split outcome. 
 
 This is a plausible argument, but let me offer a pair of cautions against it. 
 
 First, the Northeast is a wealthy party of the country, and wealthier regions have better infrastructure than impoverished ones, allowing them to recuperate more quickly after a disaster. Were the hurricane expected to hit at the same time next week, it would almost certainly be profoundly disruptive to the election. But the effects might be more modest a week from now. 
 
 Second, although the storm surge represents the most immediate threat from the hurricane, inland areas are under considerable risk as well. Hurricane Sandy could potentially flood riverbanks and other low-lying areas, both because of the storm surge carrying forth into them and then because of the potential for large amounts of rainfall. Moreover, these inland regions may be less well prepared to deal with the storm’s effects, especially given the news media’s tendency to focus its alerts on the impact to major, coastal cities and then to ignore the impact of a storm once it passes through them. (Hurricane Irene in 2011 produced more deaths in landlocked Vermont than in New York City.) Thus, Sandy’s after-effects could be felt in red-leaning areas like central Pennsylvania and West Virginia, along with others that are more Democratic-leaning. 
 
 Along the same lines, it is probably unwise to anticipate what effects the storm might have within particular states, such as whether it might affect the Democratic parts of Pennsylvania more than the Republican ones. Hurricane Sandy is just too large a storm, and has such unpredictable destructive potential, to make reliable guesses about this. 
 
 The storm, of course, will also affect the plans of the campaigns and the tenor of news coverage about them. 
 
 Academic studies on the effects of natural disasters on elections have produced somewhat ambiguous results, but don’t contradict the intuitive notion that a disaster response that seems well managed could help an incumbent, while a botched response (especially if the storm damage is severe) could harm him. However, most of these studies seek to evaluate the political effects of disasters on elections held months or even years later, so their utility for understanding the immediate political consequences of a disaster may be limited. 
 
 More important: if you are in an affected region, take the weather forecast very seriously and make sure that you’re safe and secure. Public officials, from mayors to presidents, unfortunately may have their incentives corrupted by political considerations, and will not always provide the best guidance to the public as a result. Err strongly on the side of caution; FiveThirtyEight will be here when your power is back on. ||||| The presidential campaigns are publicly hitting pause on East Coast electioneering as Hurricane Sandy spirals toward Atlantic beaches, but privately political professionals are starting to assess important questions about how it might affect next week’s elections up and down the ballot. 
 
 For obvious reasons — namely, that they don’t want to appear to make political hay out of a life-and-death act of nature — campaign officials won’t touch the prospective political aftermath of a storm that has yet to hit. 
 
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 reset Obama briefs on Sandy preparations Sandy brings yard signs danger 
 
 (PHOTOS: Hurricane Sandy) 
 
 “Governor Romney’s concern is the safety and well-being of those in the path of this storm, not political considerations,” said Andrea Saul. Obama’s team wouldn’t talk about the ramifications on Sunday night. 
 
 But that doesn’t mean campaigns aren’t worried. Come hell or high water — and likely both — the nation will choose a president next Tuesday, and Sandy could wreak havoc on the election. 
 
 Here are the answers to five questions about Sandy’s impact on the election: 
 
 1) Will Mitt Romney’s momentum be stopped? 
 
 It’s hard to see how the storm helps. The Republican nominee has more than closed the gap with the incumbent over the final weeks of the campaign, taking a slim lead in most national polls. But his national boost hasn’t been mirrored in two pivotal states: Ohio and Virginia. Already Romney had to scrap a full day’s worth of events in Virginia Sunday. 
 
 Obama has had to change his schedule, too, but he’s not the one trying to make up ground. 
 
 (PHOTOS: Political plans: Rock me like a hurricane) 
 
 And even though there are multiple schools of thought on how Sandy could affect voters’ feelings about the candidates or the nuts and bolts of getting folks to turn out, it’s still hard to see how the storm could help Romney. That is, unless the government botches the response and voters blame Obama. 
 
 There’s one practical problem: travel. The storm will make it difficult for Romney to make the final push in states affected by the storm including Virginia, Florida and New Hampshire. He does plan to visit Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio Monday — also critical states. “Romney still has ground to make up in several swing states where the race has not budged,” one Democrat told POLITICO. “So to the degree it impacts travel — canceling trips to places like New Hampshire — makes it hard to make up the gap.” 
 
 2) Does Obama have a natural advantage because he’s president? 
 
 The short answer: yes. The longer answer: not if he makes an unforced error. While George W. Bush’s response to Hurricane Katrina ranks among the worst blunders in modern presidential history, it has also ensured that no president or candidate will under-react to the threat of a devastating natural disaster. 
 
 As president, Obama’s best politics are to simply do his job well. On Sunday, he visited the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s headquarters for a briefing, which is pictured prominently on the White House website. The president, in suit and shirt with no tie, sits between FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate and Deputy Administrator Richard Serino. ||||| Separately, several cities, including Stamford, Conn., and Islip, N.Y., also ordered residents out of flood-prone areas. 
 
 “As conditions continue to deteriorate we’re seeing more people," with rain and increasing winds, she told NBC News. 
 
 Five shelters were open in Atlantic County for those five affected municipalities that are home to some 66,000 people, according to census data, said Linda Gilmore, a county spokeswoman. One of the shelters was already full. 
 
 Delaware Gov. Jack Markell ordered a mandatory evacuation of an estimated 50,000 people in coastal communities. In New Jersey, mandatory evacuations were ordered for Sandy Hook south to Cape May, an area that includes the casinos in Atlantic City and popular beach resorts. 
 
 The city opened 65 shelters in public schools on Sunday morning and said more could be opened. Last year, the mayor called for an evacuation in anticipation of Tropical Storm Irene, which officials called unprecedented. 
 
 “This evacuation is mandatory. It is for your own safety,” Bloomberg said. 
 
 New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg ordered mandatory evacuations (.PDF) of 375,000 people from low-lying areas in New York City, signifying officials' growing concern about the severity of the storm and its impact on the five boroughs. About 45,000 of those were people living in public housing, where the heat, hot water and elevator services will be turned off, Bloomberg said, according to NBCNewYork.com . 
 
 Mandatory evacuations Forecasters said Sandy could make U.S. landfall anywhere between Maryland and southern New England. Some computer models show a likely landfall between Delaware and the New York/New Jersey area, where the storm surge could reach from 6 feet to 11 feet. 
 
 "The combination of an extremely dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters," the National Hurricane Center said in its advisory. 
 
 A late Sunday advisory from the National Hurricane Center said Sandy was about 290 miles east of Cape Hatteras, N.C., and 470 miles south-southeast of New York City. It was moving northeast at 14 mph. 
 
 “Sandy is a large hurricane and large systems pose multiple hazards for more people than … smaller systems of comparable intensity,” National Hurricane Center Director Rick Knabb said Sunday. “The large size of the system is why it is so capable of producing a life threatening storm surge, with that threat being applicable to many areas.” 
 
 In anticipation of widespread damage and vast power outages, states of emergency were declared in nine states from North Carolina to Maine, as well as in Washington, D.C., as Sandy made its way north after killing at least 65 people in the Caribbean. 
 
 Workers on Sunday night began shutting down New York City's subway, bus and commuter railroads , as ordered by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. In New Jersey, bus, rail and light rail services were gradually shut down starting Sunday afternoon. 
 
 "The size of this alone, affecting a heavily populated area, is going to be history making," said Jeff Masters, a hurricane specialist who writes a blog posted on the Weather Underground . 
 
 Sandy could be the largest storm ever to hit the United States, according to NOAA's website . 
 
 "We're looking at impact of greater than 50 to 60 million people," said Louis Uccellini, head of environmental prediction for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 
 
 Forecasters said Sandy has the ingredients to transform into a "super storm" as it merges with an Arctic jet stream, which could make the storm unlike anything seen over the eastern United States in decades. The storm is projected to make landfall late Monday . 
 
 Meanwhile, U.S. stock exchanges said they would not be trading on Monday and possibly Tuesday. In Washington, D.C., federal offices will remain closed Monday, and federal courts in affected areas sent out releases saying they, too, would be shuttered in anticipation of the historic storm. 
 
 A day before the storm was scheduled to make landfall, state and local officials issued mandatory evacuation orders for hundreds of thousands of residents in low-lying areas and began the slow, grinding process of shutting down New York City’s massive transit system. 
 
 Hurricane Sandy lumbered toward the East Coast early Monday, leaving potentially tens of millions of residents with only hours to prepare for its onslaught of punishing wind, torrential rains and, at higher elevations, heavy snow. 
 
 Tips on preparing for Sandy 
 
 Not everyone was heeding the evacuation orders. Peter Mercatanti, 26, who lives on Deauville Beach in Mantoloking, N.J., said Sunday afternoon that he had kayaks ready and had packed wet suits, waterproof book bags, flares, glow sticks, flashlights, propane and food to bear out the storm. 
 
 He had stocked sandbags around his home and put up shelter blinds on all of the windows and the doors. But ocean water was hitting his fence and winds that he estimated to be about 25 to 30 miles an hour could be heard screaming on the beach. 
 
 “I just wanted to be here for it, see it, experience it, and try to take care of my house as much as possible,” Mercatanti, a chief of operations for a gym chain, told NBC News by telephone. 
 
 Though he is "extremely worried," he won't leave the island but will head to a friend's house nearby if need be. 
 
 Peter Mercatanti won't leave his house on Deauville Beach in Mantoloking, N.J., saying he wants to home to experience the storm and try to take care of his house. "I can be sustainable and floating," he said. He took this image around 6 p.m. ET on Sunday. 
 
 "I’ve pretty much kind of prepared for every possible situation," he said. "I can be sustainable and floating." 
 
 The Coast Guard also rescued a surfer near Sea Bright, N.J., where authorities have issued mandatory evacuations. 
 
 "We can't stress enough to stay clear of beaches," said Chief Petty Officer Rodger Krass, the command duty officer in the New York sector, said in a statement. "Now is not the time to head out onto the water to go surfing as sea conditions are extremely dangerous and are continuing to worsen as Hurricane Sandy approaches shore." 
 
 President Barack Obama on Sunday visited the National Response Coordination Center at FEMA Headquarters, where the deployment of federal resources and teams to states up and down the East Coast will be coordinated, the White House said. 
 
 Calling it a "very serious storm event," he said: "This is going to affect a big swath of the country and because it's slow moving, it could be a number of days until people get power back." 
 
 FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate said earlier Sunday that the "time for preparing and talking is about over." 
 
 "People need to be acting now particularly as this storm … is becoming a rather substantial risk to storm surge," he added. The hurricane is "going to produce very high potential life threatening storm surge … that may require additional evacuations today." 
 
 Coastal flooding posed a major threat, particularly in low-lying areas like New York City, the global financial nerve center, and Alexandria, Va., across the Potomac River from Washington, D.C. Flooding also could occur in parts of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island and New York, the National Hurricane Center said. 
 
 But Fugate warned that "this is not a coastal threat alone" and that the impact will be felt "well inland." 
 
 Share your images of Hurricane Sandy preparations 
 
 Some areas could experience up to a foot of rain, while others, such as West Virginia, Virginia and the area around the North Carolina-Tennessee border, could get from 1 to 3 feet of snow. 
 
 Sandy's winds were not overwhelming for a hurricane -- sustained near 75 mph Sunday afternoon with higher gusts. But its width is exceptional. Hurricane force winds extended up to 175 miles from its center while its lesser tropical storm-force winds reached across 520 miles. 
 
 Officials urged residents to stock up on emergency supplies, but items like lanterns, generators, propane, rain boots and batteries were hard to find at stores throughout the region. Grocery stores also reported runs on bread, bottled water and canned foods. 
 
 Long lines also were reported at gas stations that remained open. 
 
 Sandy also was disrupting travel in the region. More than 6,800 flights have been canceled so far, according to FlightAware.com, a flight tracking website. Rail traffic also was impacted, with Amtrak canceling all of its northeast corridor service in addition to some other lines it operates in the region. 
 
 Some local governments, including New York City and Washington, D.C., announced schools would be closed on Monday and Tuesday. Federal government offices in Washington, D.C., will also be closed Monday and non-emergency employees there as well as in Connecticut and Massachusetts have been told not to come to work. 
 
 The Broadway League said it was calling off all Broadway performances on Sunday and Monday evenings. 
 
 Workers also halted construction on Saturday at the World Trade Center, where efforts to secure the site were ongoing, Cuomo said in a statement. All construction materials have been tied down and nailed to concrete floors, or secured with heavy chains, and more than 1,000 sandbags had been placed around low-lying areas next to Battery Park and the Hudson River. 
 
 "I've directed the Port Authority to ensure that the World Trade Center site and the Memorial are protected from flooding and high winds due to Hurricane Sandy," Cuomo said. "The World Trade Center is being built well above and beyond normal flood protection standards; however we must take every precaution to ensure the site is protected from a potentially historic storm." 
 
 Election issues 
 
 Coming in the hectic run-up to the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 6, the storm presented a challenge to the campaigns of Obama and his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney. 
 
 Obama canceled campaign stops in Virginia and Colorado early next week because of the hurricane and was planning to remain at the White House, his spokesman said Saturday. 
 
 Romney rescheduled his campaign events for Virginia on Sunday and headed to Ohio instead. 
 
 Obama said officials did not expect the storm to impact voting, "but we're obviously going to have a look." Meantime, Maryland’s governor also announced that early voting in the state would be canceled Monday, so as not to jeopardize the safety of voters, NBC Washington reported. 
 
 Sandy is set to deliver potential election surprise 
 
 Power outages caused by the storm, expected to affect millions or residents and businesses, could continue through the election, NBC meteorologist Bill Karins warned. Some 3,000 people were without power in Virginia, where it was raining Sunday and up to 200 people were going to be evacuated, said Gov. Robert McDonnell. 
 
 "After the storm hits, expect the cleanup and power outage restoration to continue right up through Election Day," Karins said. "Serious and life-threatening weather conditions are expected from Outer Banks to New England." 
 
 Although Sandy is not forecast to be as strong as other recent storms to hit the Northeast -- such as Hurricane Irene in August 2011, which left $4 billion in damage -- it holds the potential to cause significant damage because it will be moving slowly. 
 
 Some experts predict at least $1 billion in damage in the United States. 
 
 Insurers prepare for impact of Hurricane Sandy
– President Obama is assuring Americans that there has been "extraordinarily close coordination" between state, local, and federal officials in the response to Hurricane Sandy, he said in a press conference this afternoon. But "millions of people are going to be affected," he cautioned. "The most important message that I have for the public right now is please listen to what your state and local officials are saying. When they tell you to evacuate, you need to evacuate." At the end of the press conference, a reporter asked what impact the storm might have on the election. "I am not worried at this point about the impact on the election, I'm worried about the impact on families," first responders, the economy, and transportation, Obama said. "The election will take care of itself next week." Of course, lots of people are worried about the impact on the election. Slate points to a study showing that the public tends to "punish the incumbent for so-called acts of God." Nate Silver reads the studies differently, saying they indicate that a well-run response can help an incumbent. But the storm, he notes, will also wreak havoc on polling.