The road to a Democratic Senate majority in 2018 runs through Texas — yes, Texas. 
 
 Facing a grim midterm map, Democrats are desperately trying to put enough GOP-held seats in play to take advantage of Donald Trump’s unpopularity and carve a credible path back to Senate control. The odds are so long that Democrats must pin their hopes on taking out Ted Cruz in the reliably conservative bastion of Texas. 
 
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 Their first ray of hope is the entry of three-term Rep. Beto O’Rourke — a 44-year-old former hard rock musician and internet entrepreneur who speaks fluent Spanish — into the race on Friday. Though Cruz is universally known, Democrats insist he’s not invincible, pointing to the first-term Republican’s poor polling numbers and prolonged focus on running for president. 
 
 And they say O'Rourke is formidable enough that they can make a case to donors that they actually have a shot at winning the state — and the Senate overall. 
 
 “People want to win and they want to play offense. And Texas represents that,” O’Rourke said in an interview earlier this month. “Texas is how you win back the Senate.” 
 
 For the first time in several election cycles, control of the Senate is not up for grabs barring a massive anti-Republican wave. Already facing a four-seat deficit, Democrats have to defend 25 seats, including five in conservative states that voted overwhelmingly for Trump last year and five more that he carried by a narrower margin. 
 
 The GOP, by contrast, has to protect just nine seats. After Arizona and Nevada, Texas is probably the most enticing opportunity, given the demographic challenges the party faces in states like Tennessee, Nebraska and Mississippi. 
 
 Republicans say that once again, Democrats are getting ahead of themselves. After major wins in conservative states in 2012, the party has lost races that they tried to contest in Kansas, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina and South Dakota. 
 
 Republicans acknowledge that eventually Democrats will be competitive in Texas if the GOP doesn’t do a better job of courting minority voters. But they say a $100 million race against Cruz — the amount Democrats estimate they'll need to spend — won't cut it. 
 
 “I know Beto. And he’s a good guy. But I think this is a suicide mission,” said Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, another Texan and a two-time chairman of the party’s Senate campaign arm. “We haven’t elected a Democrat statewide since … 1994.” 
 
 If Democrats can legitimately put Texas in play — still an if — it would be an important moment for the party going into the next election. Raising money for 2018 would be a lot easier if they can inspire donors with a message of potentially taking the Senate, as opposed to just stanching the bleeding. 
 
 Still, senior Democrats are quick to tamp down expectations about their chances in the Lone Star State. Last year, Democrats had a favorable map and were bubbling with confidence about their prospects of winning the Senate — only to experience a disaster on Election Day. 
 
 Their focus is on reelecting endangered incumbents and keeping the GOP from a filibuster-proof majority in 2019, which would allow Republicans to run roughshod over Democrats. 
 
 “We’re realistic. Our approach is, No. 1, to shore up the blue line we have in the Senate right now,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “Wild things can happen in 2018. We can be very competitive in Texas.” 
 
 O’Rourke will be going up against a singular figure in Cruz. The 46-year-old senator quickly made his mark in the GOP as a take-no-prisoners conservative: He led the party into a government shutdown, branded Majority Leader Mitch McConnell a liar and infamously declined to endorse Trump at the Republican National Convention, before eventually coming around. Since the election, Cruz has been a more cooperative presence in the Senate. 
 
 Rep. Mike McCaul (R-Texas) is mulling a primary challenge against Cruz from the center. That could damage Cruz and force him to expend resources with O’Rourke waiting further down the line. 
 
 Privately, Republicans believe McCaul will back off since Trump won the election and McCaul can’t blame Cruz’s feud with Trump for costing the GOP the presidential race. McCaul refused to answer questions about whether he will challenge Cruz. 
 
 “I just don’t want to talk about any of this,” McCaul said. 
 
 But O’Rourke does. 
 
 “He’s been very busy running for president since he was elected to the Senate. Which is fine for him. It hasn’t been especially good for Texas,” O’Rourke said. 
 
 Cruz declined an interview for this story. In a statement, he said: "I welcome [O'Rourke] to the race, and will continue to work every day to earn and keep the trust of Texans across our great state. I'm confident that Texans want a senator who will lead the fight for freedom." 
 
 The affable O’Rourke cuts a unique profile in the House. He recently spent two days in a car with Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas) driving from Texas to D.C. after a snowstorm. The two livestreamed the entire ride and took questions from constituents along the way. 
 
 “People want to win and they want to play offense. And Texas represents that,” Rep. Beto O’Rourke said in an interview earlier this month. | AP Photo 
 
 O'Rourke says he won’t accept PAC money in the race against Cruz, which could put him at a severe disadvantage given national Democrats’ focus on defending the 10 incumbents from states that Trump won. 
 
 O’Rourke acknowledged the disadvantages he faces going in, from fundraising to low name recognition to the state's conservative tilt. But he pointed to his last major race, when he upset longtime Democratic Rep. Silvestre Reyes in a 2012 primary. 
 
 “I was running against 100-to-1 odds,” O’Rourke said. “You don’t know until you do it.” 
 
 O’Rourke and Cruz have some similarities: They both believe in term limits and have annoyed their party leaders, though O’Rourke has done so in far less strident ways than Cruz. Most notably, O’Rourke has sought distance from House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s messaging campaigns on Obamacare, concluding bluntly: “That shit doesn’t work.” 
 
 O’Rourke could conceivably have a primary challenge himself in Rep. Joaquin Castro. But Texas Democrats and state strategists believe that Castro will likely pass now that O’Rourke is in. Unlike O’Rourke, who has said he will serve only until 2020 in the House, Castro hasn't promised an end-date there. 
 
 Castro, who speaks with O’Rourke frequently, insists he's still weighing his option and plans to decide by the end of April. 
 
 “We both agreed that we would come to our own decisions about the race and go from there,” Castro said in an interview Wednesday. 
 
 The fact that young, promising candidates are mulling runs in Texas offers Democrats hope that their party’s fortunes are changing in the nation's second most populous state. 
 
 “Texas is going to be competitive. The question is whether 2018 is that moment,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). “It might be the combination of Cruz’s profile and the changing demographics.” 
 
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 But Republicans remember the likes of Wendy Davis, whose much-hyped 2014 gubernatorial run ended in a 20-point blowout. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Cory Gardner said Democrats' are in for a similar ending in 2018. 
 
 “And we [Republicans] plan on a very competitive election in California,” Gardner said sarcastically. ||||| SAN ANTONIO — Sen. Ted Cruz Rafael (Ted) Edward CruzObama praises Beto O'Rourke: 'Impressive young man' Dem bundler: Donors waiting on 2020 commitments until Beto O'Rourke makes decision The Hill's Morning Report — GOP victorious in Florida while Dems say `Sunbelt strategy’ looks bright for 2020 MORE (R-Texas) and Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) clashed in a heated second debate on a cold and bitter night in San Antonio, less than three weeks out from the midterm elections. 
 
 O’Rourke went on the attack right at the start of the debate, framing Cruz as “dishonest” and someone who abandoned Texas to run for president. But Cruz continued to aggressively go after the Democratic congressman’s record, which he says doesn’t line up with deep-red Texas. 
 
 The contentious showdown again highlighted the starkest differences between the candidates, particularly on immigration and health care. 
 
 Here are the five takeaways from the fiery — and likely final — Senate debate in the Lone Star State. 
 
 O’Rourke goes on offense 
 
 O’Rourke didn’t pull any punches in this debate, especially with polls consistently showing him trailing Cruz. 
 
 Unlike in the first debate, the Democratic congressman came out swinging from the beginning and repeatedly hammered Cruz throughout the hourlong debate. 
 
 Right out the gate, O’Rourke sought to highlight the major differences between them, starting with election security. O’Rourke accused Cruz of being incapable of standing up to the president on both this issue and also on tariffs. 
 
 “He voted against safeguarding the integrity of our ballot box,” O’Rourke said. “Our junior senator won’t stand up to President Trump Donald John TrumpTrump: WHCA picking non-comedian for headliner a 'good first step' Five takeaways from Mississippi's Senate debate Watergate’s John Dean: Nixon would tell Trump 'he's going too far' MORE.” 
 
 The attacks only got more heated throughout the night. O’Rourke brought back President Trump’s past pejorative nickname for Cruz from the 2016 Republican primary race, arguing that the GOP senator fits the name “Lyin’ Ted.” 
 
 "This is what you can expect over the course of debate," O'Rourke said. "Sen. Cruz isn’t going to be honest. He’s dishonest." 
 
 "That’s why [Trump's] nickname stuck — because it’s true." 
 
 But Cruz, a seasoned debater, countered each of O’Rourke’s attacks. In a familiar line of attack, Cruz continued to cast the Democrat’s voting record in Congress as “out of step in Texas.” 
 
 The GOP senator even noted the change in tone since their last debate in Dallas. 
 
 "Well it’s clear Congressman O'Rourke's pollsters told him to come out on the attack," Cruz said. 
 
 Cruz on defense over GOP tax law 
 
 Republicans are hoping that the GOP’s tax law passed last year will be a boon for them in the midterms. But Cruz was left explaining his support for the GOP’s biggest legislative achievement since Trump took office. 
 
 Cruz trumpeted his support for the tax cuts, while talking about the need for paying down the deficit and debt. 
 
 He called the growing deficit and debt “immoral,” but argued that it wasn’t due to the tax cuts passed late last year. 
 
 But in a notable moment of the debate, one of the moderators interrupted Cruz’s answer to mention past comments he made while running for the GOP presidential nomination in 2016. 
 
 “Respectfully, Sen. Cruz, in Iowa, you talked about how bad the deficit is.” 
 
 When asked if the tax law increases the deficit and debt, Cruz responded, “No, it wouldn’t. That projection is wrong.” 
 
 Cruz continued that measures that spur economic growth — like the tax law — don’t contribute to that. He said that the government can fix the “out-of-control spending” in Congress by imposing things like congressional term limits and passing a balanced budget amendment. 
 
 For his part, O’Rourke decried that tax cuts as "disproportionately” benefiting corporations. 
 
 Cruz gets upper hand in health-care exchange 
 
 Health care has been a prominent issue this election cycle — and one that Democrats believe is a winning issue, especially when it comes to protections for those with pre-existing conditions. 
 
 But there was no mention of the popular ObamaCare provision in this debate. Instead, moderators focused more on “Medicare for all,” which gave Cruz an opening to tie O’Rourke to a democratic socialist. 
 
 Cruz accused the Democratic congressman of wanting “socialized medicine” and Sen. Bernie Sanders Bernard (Bernie) SandersOvernight Health Care: Drug industry nervous about Grassley | CDC warns public not to eat romaine lettuce | Sanders unveils new drug pricing bill Sanders and Khanna have a plan to lower your drug prices 2020 Democrats challenge Trump's use of troops at Mexico border MORE’s (I-Vt.) Medicare for all proposal. 
 
 “O’Rourke supports Bernie Sanders’s socialized medicine,” Cruz said, adding that it would “triple your taxes.” The GOP senator pointed to examples of other countries who use that system, arguing that it would lead to long wait times and that the costs would be “immense.” 
 
 But O’Rourke stood his ground for wanting affordable and quality universal health care, especially for working families. He said that there are different approaches to achieving that goal, noting Medicare for all, expanded Medicaid and “the ability for people to pay into Medicare.” 
 
 “All you hear from Sen. Cruz is what we should be afraid of,” O’Rourke said, pointing to Cruz previously shutting down the government “perhaps because too many people had health care.” 
 
 Immigration still the biggest wedge issue 
 
 Like the last debate, immigration continues to be the biggest separator between the two candidates running to be a senator of a border state. 
 
 Republicans running across the country have seized on this issue as a way to draw contrasts with their Democratic opponents. And in Texas, a Tuesday poll from CNN found that immigration is a top priority for voters in the Senate race. That same poll found Cruz leading O’Rourke by 7 points among likely voters. 
 
 Trump’s signature campaign promise of a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border yet again highlighted the differences between them. 
 
 O'Rourke said building a border wall won’t resolve the country’s immigration issues. 
 
 "No wall is going to solve legitimate security issues, but smart policy will," he said, noting that he introduced a bill with Sen. John Cornyn John CornynDivisions in GOP may leave Trump priority in Senate limbo Senate barrels toward showdown over Trump's court picks Dem gains put Sunbelt in play for 2020 MORE (R-Texas) that would invest more money in ports of entry in the U.S. 
 
 Cruz said he's "led the fight to secure the border and building the wall." Cruz continued to make the case that O’Rourke’s liberal record is out of touch with what Texans want. 
 
 "Let me say there's no race in this country where there is a starker divide on immigration," Cruz said. 
 
 Candidates make their final pitch 
 
 In a bitter debate from start to finish, both candidates laid out distinct visions for why they should be elected in their closing statements. Those respective visions essentially boiled down to "hope and change" versus continued progress. 
 
 O’Rourke said the country and Texans need "inspiration" and hope when Americans and their government are more divided than ever. 
 
 "Whether we remain the inspiration of the world is an open question right now," O’Rourke said, saying he’s been inspired to "transcend the obstacles" and fight for so-called Dreamers and universal health care. 
 
 Meanwhile, Cruz made the case for familiarity, arguing that electing O’Rourke would disrupt the economic growth in Texas that’s been made over his past six years in office. 
 
 "This is a choice about keeping the boom going," Cruz said. "We have the lowest Hispanic unemployment, the lowest African-American unemployment. Why would we want to screw that up?" 
 
 While there was visible tension, both candidates bemoaned the hyperpartisanship gripping the country. And there was a moment of emotion — and agreement — when it came to parenting while campaigning. 
 
 Cruz gave an emotional answer about the difficulty of being away from his children. O’Rourke, who is also the father of young children, said Cruz’s answer resonated with him. 
 
 Jessie Hellmann and Tess Bonn contributed. ||||| Beto O'Rourke, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Texas, at an event in Austin in September. (Erich Schlegel/Reuters) 
 
 No doubt about it: Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Tex.) is a Democratic star the likes of which the party hasn’t seen in a Senate candidate in years. But is he too hot for the Democratic Party’s own good? 
 
 On Friday, his Senate campaign announced it raised $38 million in just the past three months. 
 
 That will go down in history. What O’Rourke raised in three months is what some presidential campaigns raise. It blasted through a fundraising record ($22 million in one quarter) that no Senate candidate has been able to touch in 18 years. 
 
 To put that money in perspective in Texas, $38 million was more than half of what O’Rourke — who was already raising insane sums of money — raised during the rest of his entire campaign. The $62 million he has raised so far is more than twice as much as his opponent, incumbent GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, has. 
 
 'It’s an astonishing number — and done with all people, no PACs," said Adam Bozzi with the End Citizens United PAC, which supports candidates like O’Rourke who have said no to political action money from special interests. O’Rourke’s campaign didn’t share much detail about his fundraising, but he did say the contributions averaged $47 from roughly 802,000 people, about half of whom were in Texas. 
 
 But that does not mean O'Rourke will win a Senate seat in Texas. He's still behind in the polls, and the fundamentals of the conservative state suggest it might not be ready to elect a Democrat to statewide office. 
 
 And if a fired-up Democratic base is so willing to pour money into big Senate races, you could argue that at least some of that money would be more useful going to fellow Democratic candidates in red-leaning states like North Dakota and West Virginia and Montana and Tennessee, all of whom have a much better chance of winning than O’Rourke does. 
 
 The Texas Senate race is still remarkably competitive. But let’s put this $38 million — and O’Rourke’s chances in Texas — in perspective. 
 
 He’s behind in the polls: O’Rourke hasn’t led in a single high-quality public poll since this race began. Some polls this spring and summer had the race too close to call. But since September, Cruz has been well ahead. A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Cruz ahead of O’Rourke by 9 percentage points, mirroring Republican private polling showing Cruz ahead. Polling closer to Election Day tends to be more accurate since more likely voters start paying attention. 
 
 Money can mean momentum, but it doesn’t always equal momentum: In 2014, Democrat Wendy Davis launched a buzzy run for governor in Texas. At one point she outraised her Republican opponent (though not nearly as much as O’Rourke is outpacing Cruz), earning her lots of national headlines and even more buzz. 
 
 She ended up losing the governor’s race by 20 points. It was the worst showing of a Democratic candidate for governor in the state in 16 years. 
 
 That’s not to say O’Rourke is going to lose as Davis did. But that a Democrat in Texas can raise tens of millions and still lose badly underscores our next point, that: 
 
 The fundamentals in the state still favor Republicans: There is plenty of evidence that Texas Democrats are motivated to vote in November — not an easy thing to do in a state where general elections are usually foregone conclusions for the Republican. 
 
 In this spring’s primary, Democrats doubled their turnout from 2014 to 2016, breaking 1 million voters. At the state level, Democrats are challenging Gov. Greg Abbott (R), 14 of 15 state Senate seats and nearly 90 percent of the state’s 150 state House seats. Texas Democrats haven’t put up that kind of defense in a quarter-century. 
 
 “The energy in the Lone Star State is palpable,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez said. 
 
 But Republicans set their own primary vote record with 1.5 million votes. And they didn’t have to stretch that much to do it; 1.5 million votes was a slight uptick from the last midterm election cycle. Cruz got twice as many votes in his Republican primary than O’Rourke did in the Democratic one. And O’Rourke ceded 38 percent points to two much lesser-known, less-hyped challengers. 
 
 Democrats in Texas say that if the state votes like it looks (meaning minority and younger voters vote Democratic and vote in high numbers), it can be blue. But so far there’s little evidence that’s happening, at least to the degree Democrats need. 
 
 [Signs of the blue wave in Texas? Not so fast.] 
 
 There are a lot of other places this money might be more useful: One GOP operative calculates that what O’Rourke raised in three months is more than three times what Democrats have spent in North Dakota so far. It’s more than double what Democrats have spent in Tennessee and West Virginia. 
 
 Not every state is created equal, of course. It costs more to buy TV ads in Dallas than in, say, Fargo, N.D. But those three Senate races all have something in common that O’Rourke’s doesn’t: The Democrat is more likely to win. 
 
 Texas doesn’t even make the top 10 of the Fix’s latest rankings of the most competitive Senate races. Democratic Sens. Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.), Joe Manchin III (W.Va.), Jon Tester (Mont.), Bill Nelson (Fla.) and Democratic candidate Phil Bredesen in Tennessee are all on the list. Some of those candidates, especially Heitkamp, are fighting for their political careers. And their races are crucial to helping Democrats take back the Senate. 
 
 [Why is Heidi Heitkamp voting against Kavanaugh?] 
 
 Republicans to whom The Fix spoke couldn’t be happier to see so much Democratic money go into Texas instead. 
 
 “Every dollar that’s going to Beto," said one Republican operative watching the race closely and granted anonymity to speak candidly, “is a dollar that is not going to Florida or Montana or North Dakota.”
– The race between Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke in Texas is emerging as one of the must-watch races of the midterms. Cruz, of course, is the Republican incumbent hoping to keep his Senate seat, while O'Rourke is a 45-year-old three-term congressman mounting a surprisingly strong challenge. A new poll by Emerson College out this week has the race in a statistical dead heat, reports the Hill, which notes that Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in three decades. Here's a look at the latest, including O'Rourke's growing national profile: Rock star: The Texas GOP tweeted an old photo of O'Rourke this week showing him back in the '90s with his old punk band, Foss. The photo was meant to mock O'Rourke, and some Republicans think it did just that. "Wearing a dress?" tweeted one strategist. But an analysis at the Washington Post thinks the photo actually endeared O'Rourke to far more people than it alienated. His "rock-star status is cemented by Texas GOP, handing Dems an icon they desperately need," reads the headline. Oh, he skateboards, too.