Romney, Huckabee, Palin Lead GOP Field For 2012 
 
 Despite votes in the 2010 contest still being counted, polls for 2012 are already pouring out. They're largely meaningless. 
 
 Doug Mataconis · · 7 comments 
 
 It didn’t take long for Scott Rasmussen to come out with the first post-midterm poll of 2012 candidates: 
 
 OK, the election’s over, and the message from most voters was that they didn’t care much for President Obama’s agenda. Now the focus is on the race for the presidency in 2012. On the Republican side, it’s a dead heat between the ex-governors – Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Sarah Palin of Alaska, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary voters. Asked who they would vote for if the Republican presidential primary were held today, 20% say Romney, 19% Huckabee and another 19% Palin. (…) Rounding out the list of seven candidates chosen by Rasmussen Reports for the question, with their levels of support, are former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (13%), Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty (6%), Texas Congressman Ron Paul (5%) and Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels (3%). Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. 
 
 At this point, of course, these polls are little more than a popularity and name recognition contest, and Palin, Romney, and Huckabee have been leading the field in these polls for months now. Considering the fact that four years ago Rudy Giuliani was leading in these same types of polls for the 2008 nomination, they can’t really be said to be a great predictor of how the nomination fight, which hasn’t even started yet, will turn out. Moreover, even in the heat of the battle, it isn’t the national polls that matter, but the state polls in places like Iowa and New Hampshire. Give this six months or so, and we’ll start seeing numbers that really matter. 
 
 UPDATE (James Joyner): Taegan Goddard summarizes a CNN survey of Republicans in three early states: 
 
 Iowa: Romney 21%, Huckabee 21%, Palin 18%, Gingrich 7% New Hampshire: Romney 39%, Gingrich 19%, Palin 18%, Huckabee 11% South Carolina: Palin 25%, Huckabee 24%, Romney 21%, Gingrich 20% 
 
 I agree with Doug that these mostly measure name recognition and have little bearing on what will happen more than a year from now. They give us some idea of where candidates are starting but that’s it. 
 
 My gut tells me that Romney is the frontrunner and Palin the strongest challenger. I can’t imaging Huckabee beating Palin, although he has a track record of hanging around long after his defeat is inevitable and could serve as a spoiler. Gingrich has way too much baggage. 
 
 My hope is that someone who didn’t run in 2012 — a governor like Gary Johnson, maybe — emerges. But it’s going to be difficult because this race will get started quickly and the winner will need enough money to choke a horse. 
 
 I suppose there’s always Marco Rubio — he’ll be more experienced than Obama was in 2008 and he’s got a huge fan base and boatloads of charisma. But I suspect he’ll wait a little longer. ||||| 8 years ago 
 
 Greenville, South Carolina (CNN) - A new national poll indicates the race for the Republican presidential nomination remains wide-open, with none of the probable or potential GOP White House contenders above 20 percent, according to a new national poll. 
 
 The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey's Thursday release comes hours before the first Republican presidential debate of the 2012 election cycle. The debate is being held in South Carolina, which holds the first southern primary on the road to the White House. 
 
 
 
 The poll also indicates President Barack Obama is ahead of all probable and possible GOP candidates tested in hypothetical general election matchups, but the person who comes closest to Obama may surprise you. 
 
 According to the survey, conducted just before the news of the death of Osama bin Laden, 16 percent of Republicans and independents who lean Republican say they would be likely to support Mike Huckabee for the Republican presidential nomination. The former Arkansas governor ran for the White House in 2008, and while to date he hasn't taken many steps towards launching another campaign, he has definitely not ruled out another bid for his party's nomination. 
 
 Fourteen percent say they'd back Donald Trump. The billionaire businessman, real estate mogul and reality TV star says he will announce by June if he's going to run for the White House. 
 
 One point back is Mitt Romney, at 13 percent. The former Massachusetts governor and 2008 GOP White House candidate has been adding to his campaign team in recent months and last month launched a presidential exploratory committee. 
 
 The poll indicates that 11 percent support Sarah Palin. The former Alaska governor and 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee has not made any serious moves towards launching a campaign, but says she isn't closing any doors. 
 
 Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who has run for the White House twice before, both stand at ten percent in the poll. Both men have taken steps towards formally launching campaigns. Everyone else questioned in the survey registered at five percent or less. 
 
 "No GOP candidate has a statistically significant lead, so it's way too soon to start talking about frontrunners," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. 
 
 Is it all about name recognition at this still relatively early point in the GOP horserace? 
 
 "Yes, but name recognition alone is not enough. Otherwise one of the best known candidates, Palin, would not be stuck in fourth place. Trump and Palin, with the highest name ID, also have the highest unfavorable ratings," adds Holland. 
 
 Fifty-nine percent of all Americans dislike the former Alaska Governor and 64 percent have a negative view of Trump, according to the poll. The survey indicates Gingrich also has relatively high unfavorables, but the favorable ratings for Romney and Huckabee outweigh their unfavorables, although both are unknown to more than a quarter of the general public. 
 
 Seventy-eight percent of Democrats or independents who lean Democrat say they back Obama as the party's presidential nominee next year, with just over one in five saying they'd prefer another Democrat. That number has remained relatively consistent over the past year. 
 
 What about the showdown in November 2012? 
 
 According to the poll, taken before the announcement of Osama bin Laden's death, President Barack Obama has an edge over all the top GOP candidates in hypothetical match-ups. 
 
 Who does best against Obama? Paul. The congressman from Texas, who also ran as a libertarian candidate for president in 1988 and who is well liked by many in the tea party movement, trails the president by only seven points (52 to 45 percent) in a hypothetical general election showdown. Huckabee trails by eight points, with Romney down 11 points to Obama. 
 
 The poll indicates the president leading Gingrich by 17 points, Palin by 19, and Trump by 22 points. 
 
 "It should be obvious to any political observer that hypothetical general election match-ups at this stage of the game have relatively little predictive value," says Holland. 
 
 "GOP primary match-ups are another matter - since the modern era of presidential primaries began in 1972, there have been six times when the GOP nomination was up for grabs. In five of those six election cycles, the eventual GOP winner was leading the polls taken in April of the previous year. That may mean little in 2011 since no Republican hopeful has a commanding lead, but it also means that the history books won't let us completely dismiss these polls," adds Holland. 
 
 The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted April 29-May 1, with 1,034 adult Americans questioned by telephone. All interviews were completed before the president announced that bin Laden, the founder and leader of the al Qaeda terrorist network and the man responsible for the 9/11 terrorist attacks, was killed by U.S. forces in Pakistan. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points. ||||| Now that Mike Huckabee has bowed out of 2012, the GOP field is likely to shift wildly—with Ron Paul becoming the ideal pick for voters who want to buck the status quo, says Mark McKinnon. Plus, Howard Kurtz on why Huckabee chose Fox. 
 
 
 
 Give credit to Mike Huckabee for a surprisingly reasonable decision. "All the factors say go, but my heart says no," former Gov. Huckabee said, announcing his decision to not seek the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. 
 
 Mike Huckabee speaks at the University of Arkansas Clinton School for Public Service in Little Rock, Arkansas on Dec. 14, 2009. (Photo: Danny Johnston / AP Photo). It's awfully hard for someone who lives in the world of politics to resist the physics of the presidential tug. And there are a few fairly strong arguments that Huckabee could have gained the GOP nomination. The former Arkansas governor was the winner of the 2008 Iowa caucuses and finished second in the GOP delegate count. But he is still considered an outsider to the ways of Washington—and that’s a good thing these days. Huckabee enjoys high name recognition and a strong following among social conservatives. He led in early polling. It was possible to imagine that he could win a general election under the right circumstances. With his easy manner, warm humor, and rapid rejoinders, a faceoff in a debate against President Obama would have been interesting to watch. Huckabee heard those around him urging him to run, with their voices and their promises of campaign funds. But in the end, Huck listened to his heart. And in a sign he may be fairly human, he said, "Nah." 
 
 For a variety of reasons over the years, I've tried to not like Mike Huckabee but have been unsuccessful. While he can occasionally stray into incomprehensible nonsense, and he sometimes unabashedly plays to the base of the GOP, at the end of the day Huckabee just seems, well, kind of normal. And nice. And funny. Here’s a guy who realized that he's got a pretty good life going now with a multi-media (and multi-million-dollar) cottage industry, including the No. 1 rated weekend show on Fox News where he gets to jam on his bass guitar as backup for the likes of Ted Nugent. So why go and screw it all up with the madness of a presidential run? 
 
 Mitt Romney may be momentarily relieved by Mike’s demurral, but this means Huckabee can rip Romney even more on his Massachusetts health-care plan, as he did in his latest book, A Simple Government. And Huckabee's decision now leaves a very big opening for someone to grab the social conservative space. This will blow wind into the sails of Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum and, possibly, ignite the ambition of Sarah Palin. 
 
 Ron Paul’s followers’ passion is matched only by his detractors’ derision. 
 
 Then there’s the matter of re-run Ron. Some see him as a serious candidate, others as seriously crazy. One thing is clear: Ron Paul defies labels. A Republican congressman representing an agricultural and oil-producing district along the Texas Gulf coast since 1997, Paul wants to shrink the government, cut the budget, and “end the Fed”—not unusual positions in the Lone Star State where states’ rights, personal liberty, and self-sufficiency are mother’s milk. But Paul also advocates for deep cuts in military spending, an isolationist foreign policy, and to be intellectually consistent in the defense of personal liberty, the legalization of prostitution, cocaine and heroin,—not exactly in sync with a solidly conservative state where both God and guns are revered. 
 
 Though he espouses libertarian ideas, sometimes to the extreme and sometimes in conflict with core GOP values, Paul was re-elected by his conservative district in 2010 with a whopping 76 percent of the vote. This race for the White House will be his third. In 1988, Paul won the Libertarian Party nomination for president. Though unsuccessful as a third-party presidential candidate, he ran again in 2008—as a Republican—capturing 10 percent of the Iowa caucus vote before dropping out. 
 
 In Washington, where not many politicians mean what they say, the 76-year-old Paul, a former U.S. Air Force flight surgeon and ob-gyn in private practice, is definitely different. He says what he means. Though the media may call him the “godfather” of the Tea Party movement, in an attempt to demean both, labels and titles just don’t capture the man, nor the excitement this unlikely and unvarnished movement hero creates. His followers’ passion is matched only by his detractors’ derision. But Paul raised $3 million in the first quarter of 2011, and more than $1 million in a May 5 "money bomb" fundraiser. And a recent CNN poll showed Paul running better against President Obama than any other GOP candidate. 
 
 While Rep. Paul has followed a quixotic, long, and sometimes lonely journey—he is often the only representative to cast a "no" vote—the rest of the country may be catching up to his thinking on the economy. "Time has come around to the point where the people are agreeing with much of what I've been saying for 30 years, so I think the time is right," Paul said in his presidential announcement. 
 
 What Paul’s saying may be true. With insolvency nearing for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, with the federal government’s strong-arm tactics to dictate where businesses can open plants and create jobs, and with the pain at the gas pump and grocery store not letting up in the real world, the status quo has got to go. 
 
 There are a lot of angry voters out there who may want to register a protest vote in 2012. And Ron Paul is likely to be their Pied Piper. As usual, I think it's a good bet that Ron Paul will be underestimated and exceed expectations. Perhaps by a lot. 
 
 And here's how this week's changes affect our Top 10 GOP lineup: 
 
 1. Mitt Romney: Still No. 1, but just got a brutal beat down from The Wall Street Journal editorial page. 
 
 2. Mitch Daniels: Sounds like he's leaning in. (Tantalizing tease: Condi Rice as his VP.) 
 
 3. Tim Pawlenty: Still everyone’s No. 2. No excitement building yet. 
 
 4. Newt Gingrich: He's in, and he'll make things interesting. 
 
 5. Jon Huntsman: Getting aggressive already. 
 
 6. Michele Bachmann: Will reap Huckabee windfall. 
 
 7. Ron Paul: The angrier the voter, the better he'll do. 
 
 8. Rick Santorum: Sending a thank-you note to Huckabee. 
 
 9. Herman Cain: The man can stem wind. 
 
 10. Buddy Roemer: If talent and ideas count, look out for this dark horse. 
 
 As vice chairman of Hill & Knowlton and Public Strategies, and president of Maverick Media, Mark McKinnon has helped meet strategic challenges for candidates, corporations and causes, including George W. Bush, John McCain, Ann Richards, Charlie Wilson, Lance Armstrong, and Bono. McKinnon is co-founder of No Labels and co-chair of Arts & Labs. 
 
 Like The Daily Beast on Facebook and follow us on Twitter for updates all day long. 
 
 For inquiries, please contact The Daily Beast at editorial@thedailybeast.com.
– It’s been almost an entire week since the 2010 election, which means it’s time to start speculating about 2012! Here’s the buzz on all the GOP’s presidential hopefuls, courtesy of The Week: Mike Huckabee: The governor-turned-Fox host’s “aw shucks” style has made him the early favorite—he came out on top in CNN’s latest poll, is strong in Iowa, and beat President Obama by eight points in a hypothetical poll match-up. But Rob Port at Say Anything complains that he’s “a big-government Republican nanny statist.” Mitt Romney: He finished just 1% behind Huckabee in the aforementioned poll, and a lot of 2010 winners owe him a favor. "My gut tells me Romney's the frontrunner," says James Joyner at Outside the Beltway. The problem? The health care plan he championed in Massachusetts looks a whole lot like ObamaCare. Sarah Palin: She’s really popular with the base, but the rest of the country hates her. Unlike Huckabee and Romney, she trails Obama in head-to-head polling. Even George W. Bush doesn't approve. Newt Gingrich: The ex-House speaker runs strong against Obama, and he’s won over the Tea Party base with his constant extreme rhetoric. Still, Port doesn't think voters will want “a tired old retread more interested in selling books.” Click here for the scoop on hopeful No. 5.