Two events in 1999 - the Marmara earthquake and the EU's acceptance of Turkey's candidacy for membership - offered hope for liberalization and democratization in Turkey. In the first case, the earthquake was viewed as a mobilizer for civil society, a force 'from below' that might engender political reform. In the second, the EU now had a stronger hand to push for change 'from outside', and certainly Turks had greater incentives than ever to undertake democratizing measures such as improving human rights and ending restrictions on free expression. This article casts a sceptical eye on these claims, finding the energy from the earthquake largely dissipated and strong opposition from powerful forces in Turkey to the EU's recommendations. While there has been at change at the rhetorical level, it has proved very difficult to reflect this in policy.