A further refinement is proposed by the UK HM Treasury model, which distinguishes between the use of acute and long-term care. The “dynamic equilibrium” is assumed in the solid progress scenario, whereas the “expansion of morbidity” hypothesis is assumed for both acute and long-term care in a pessimistic scenario. Using a microsimulation approach, individuals’ current and future health status can be projected conditional on their background characteristics, such as ethnicity and socio-economic status, as well as their exposure to risk factors, such as obesity and smoking, and their current and past health status and chronic health conditions (see Annex A 1.7 and A 1.23). As an example, the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs in Sweden (see Annex A 1.17) forecasted the potential impact on health and elderly care expenditures under different scenarios of the future health status of the population.