For instance, empirical estimates based on past country experience suggest that an increase of 20% in childcare spending may be required to raise female participation rates by 1 percentage point (Jaumotte, 2003). This is an average result based on past experience with reforms among OECD countries. The analysis shows that countries that spend more on activation measures per unemployed worker (as a share of GDP per capita) tend to have significantly lower unemployment rates (see also Bassanini and Duval, 2006). In the short term, assuming unchanged government expenditures, private consumption must fall sufficiently relative to income to accommodate the rise in investment and exports, implying that private saving must increase by more than investment.