This baseline scenario assessed whether the countries would be “on track” or “off track” to achieve the targets, taking into account non-linearities in the effectiveness of social spending in achieving those targets. All 27 country-level studies found that, while substantial human development progress would be made with the current public expenditure scenario, only two countries (Chile and Cuba) would fully meet, by 2015, a set of targets for primary school completion, reduction of child and maternal mortality rates, and expanded coverage of drinking water and basic sanitation. The public spending needed to meet the targets in the countries studied was estimated at about 7 per cent of GDP and, in some cases, the estimate was even higher.