This fall is fully taken into account in the Income forecasts, but not at all in the HAI and EVI projections. A prolonged military conflict is likely to have adverrse effects on the three graduation criteria. As noted in chapter 1, the decisions of these States and organs concerning graduation do not follow mechanically from the statistical criteria, but rely also on other considerations. Such considerations are not taken into account in the projections used here, although some cases in which they are likely to modify a decision based purely on the statistical criteria (and hence the timing of graduation) are indicated in the notes to table 2.2. However, this is by no means always the case.