Their estimates predict significant welfare gains after full trade liberalization for high-income and middle-income countries, with real income rising by 0.49 per cent and 0.51 per cent respectively by 2025, while developing countries' real incomes decline by 0.67 per cent. Using a simplified, but structurally similar model, Taylor and von Arnim (2006) show how heavily trade liberalization simulation results depend on assumptions. Allowing a bit more realism - unemployment, for example - makes clear that Africa will not gain, on balance, from trade liberalization.