Bars and diamonds indicate ranges and averages across models, respectively. The three world regions are defined to include the Americas, Europe, Africa and the Middle East, and Asia and Oceania. Changes shown are relative to the respective scenario without policy change. A well-functioning trading system has an important role to play in cushioning local and regional supply-side shocks, such as those related to extreme weather or civil unrest, and in mitigating their adverse impacts on food security (Baldos and Hertel, 2015).