system
A chat on subreddit /r/wallstreetbets
human
Man I don't understand statistics. What's wrong with my logic here: You have a 1/200 chance of getting Apple stock every time you refer a friend. He referred 16 friends. Each time you draw, you have a 1/200 chance of winning. 16*(1/200)= 8% chance of getting Apple stock at least once.

gpt
The other guy explained the math so hear is this. Think about a raffle of 1000 tickets and 5 of them give you apple stock. Your odds of winning by buying one raffle ticket are .5%. So if you buy 200 you should have 100% odds to win right? Well no, because there are 995 losers and you could be unlucky to buy 200 of them.