system
A chat on subreddit /r/wallstreetbets
human
I don't think this is a good thesis, but I could be missing something. Vol premium baked in because of the expected move of the stock. If your stock only dropped 5% in dec 2018 you'd be better shorting the market for 15%, even though the premium is higher. thoughts? 
  
 edit: hmm I think I see what you're getting at.. wanna crunch some numbers tho

gpt
OTM puts on BKLN are a little like a credit default swap. On LQD the situation is much more complicated by the interest rates influence. But even with interest rates it is an okay bet that the yield on 10year will eventually bounce back. It may also go to zero, in which case the puts are certainly ded. 
  
 And these things do dip - look at LQD in 2008. Or BKLN in 2018Q4 before JPow bailed it out with rate cuts.