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A currency future, also FX future or foreign exchange future, is a futures contract to exchange one currency for another at a specified

date in the future at a price (exchange rate) that is fixed on the purchase date; see Foreign exchange derivative. Typically, one of the currencies is the US dollar. The price of a future is then in terms of US dollars per unit of other currency. This can be different from the standard way of quoting in the spot foreign exchange markets. The trade unit of each contract is then a certain amount of other currency, for instance 125,000. Most contracts have physical delivery, so for those held at the end of the last trading day, actual payments are made in each currency. However, most contracts are closed out before that. Investors can close out the contract at any time prior to the contract's delivery date.

In finance, a forward contract or simply a forward is a non-standardized contract between two parties to buy or to sell an asset at a specified future time at a price agreed upon today.[1] This is in contrast to aspot contract, which is an agreement to buy or sell an asset today. The party agreeing to buy the underlying asset in the future assumes a long position, and the party agreeing to sell the asset in the future assumes a short position. The price agreed upon is called the delivery price, which is equal to theforward price at the time the contract is entered into. The price of the underlying instrument, in whatever form, is paid before control of the instrument changes. This is one of the many forms of buy/sell orders where the time and date of trade is not the same as thevalue date where the securities themselves are exchanged. The forward price of such a contract is commonly contrasted with the spot price, which is the price at which the asset changes hands on the spot date. The difference between the spot and the forward price is the forward premium or forward discount, generally considered in the form of a profit, or loss, by the purchasing party. Forwards, like other derivative securities, can be used to hedge risk (typically currency or exchange rate risk), as a means of speculation, or to allow a party to take advantage of a quality of the underlying instrument which is time-sensitive.


What is the difference between forward and futures contracts?

Fundamentally, forward and futures contracts have the same function: both types of contracts allow people to buy or sell a specific type of asset at a specific time at a given price. However, it is in the specific details that these contracts differ. First of all,futures contracts are exchange-traded and, therefore, are standardized contracts. Forward contracts, on the other hand, are private agreements between two parties and are not as rigid in their stated terms and conditions. Because forward contracts are private agreements, there is

always a chance that a party may default on its side of the agreement. Futures contracts haveclearing houses that guarantee the transactions, which drastically lowers the probability of default to almost never. Secondly, the specific details concerning settlement and delivery are quite distinct. For forward contracts, settlement of the contract occurs at the end of the contract. Futures contracts are marked-to-market daily, which means that daily changes are settled day by day until the end of the contract. Furthermore, settlement for futures contracts can occur over a range of dates. Forward contracts, on the other hand, only possess one settlement date. Lastly, because futures contracts are quite frequently employed byspeculators, who bet on the direction in which an asset's price will move, they are usually closed out prior to maturity and delivery usually never happens. On the other hand, forward contracts are mostly used by hedgers that want to eliminate the volatility of an asset's price, and delivery of the asset or cash settlement will usually take place.

Derivatives: A derivative is an instrument whose value is derived from the value of one or more basic variables called bases (underlying asset, index, or reference rate) in a contractual manner. The underlying asset can be equity, commodity, forex or any other asset. The major financial derivative products are Forwards, Futures, Options and Swaps. We will start with the concept of a Forward contract and then move on to understand Future and Option contracts. Forward Contracts: A forward contract is an agreement to buy or sell an asset on a specified date for a specified price. The main features of this definition are There is an agreement Agreement is to buy or sell the underlying asset The transaction takes place on a predetermined future date The price at which the transaction will take place is also predetermined Let us illustrate it with an example. Suppose an IT company exports its services to US and hence

earns its revenue in Dollars. If it knows it would receive a payment of $1 million in six months time, it cannot be sure as to what would be the Rupee value of this $1 million after six months. Assuming that the current rate is Rs 43/$, the value as per current rate would be Rs 43 million. Now suppose the actual forex rate after six months is Rs 37/$ and hence the company receives Rs 37 million which is less by almost 14% that the current value. In the reverse scenario of rupee depreciating vis--vis the dollar, a rate of Rs 45/$ would lead to a gain of Rs 2 million. Hence, the company is exposed to currency risk. To hedge this risk, the company may sell dollar forward i.e. it may enter into an agreement to sell $1 mn after 6 months at a rate of Rs 43/$. Note that it satisfies all the conditions of a forward contract. One pre-requisite of a forward contract is that there should be another party which is willing to take a reverse position. For example, in the above case we may sell dollars forward only if someone is willing to buy it after six months. An importer who purchases goods and hence makes payment in dollars might need to hedge his currency risk by being the other side of this contract. Future Contracts: A future contract is effectively a forward contract which is standardized in nature and is exchange traded. Future contracts remove the lacunas of forward contracts as they are not exposed to counterparty risk and are also much more liquid. The standardization of the contract is with respect to Quality of underlying Quantity of underlying Term of the contract Let us understand it with the help of an illustration of a Reliance Future contract. What does the statement - I have bought 1 lot (250 shares) of Reliance July Future @ Rs 700 mean in theory? It means that the person has agreed to buy 250 shares of Reliance Industries on 26th July 2012 (the expiration date) at Rs 700 per share. Here, The underlying is the shares of Reliance Industries The quantity is 1 lot, i.e. 250 shares The expiry date is 26th July 2012 (last Thursday of July), and The pre-determined price is Rs 700 (and is called the Strike Price) If the actual price of Reliance is Rs 800 on the settlement day (26th July), the person buys 250 shares at the contracted price of Rs 700 and may sell it at the prevailing market price of Rs 800 thereby gaining Rs 100 per share (Rs 25,000 in total). On the other hand if the price falls to 650 he loses Rs 50 per share (Rs 12,500 in total) as he has to buy at Rs 700 but the prevailing market price is Rs 650.

Derivatives - Common Characteristics of Futures and Forwards

Forward Commitments A forward commitment is a contract between two (or more) parties who agree to engage in a transaction at a later date and at a specific price, which is given at the start of the contract. It is a customized, privately negotiated agreement

to exchange an asset or cash flows at a specified future date at a price agreed on at the trade date. In its simplest form, it is a trade that is agreed to at one point in time but will take place at some later time. For example, two parties might agree today to exchange 500,000 barrels of crude oil for $42.08 a barrel three months from today. Entering a forward contract typically does notrequire the payment of a fee. There are two major types of forward commitments:

Forward contracts, or forwards, are OTC-traded derivatives with customized terms and features. Futures contract, or futures, are exchange-traded derivatives with standardized terms.

Futures and forwards share some common characteristics:

Both futures and forwards are firm and binding agreements to act at a later date. In most cases this means exchanging an asset at a specific price sometime in the future.

Both types of derivatives obligate the parties to make a contract to complete the transaction or offset the transaction by engaging in anther transaction that settles each party's obligation to the other. Physical settlement occurs when the actual underlying asset is delivered in exchange for the agreed-upon price. In cases where the contracts are entered into for purely

financial reasons (i.e. the engaged parties have no interest in taking possession of the underlying asset), the derivative may becash settled with a single payment equal to the market value of the derivative at its maturity or expiration.

Both types of derivatives are considered leveraged instruments because for little or no cash outlay, an investor can profit from price movements in the underlying asset without having to immediately pay for, hold or warehouse that asset.

They offer a convenient means of hedging or speculating. For example, a rancher can conveniently hedge his grain costs by purchasing corn several months forward. The hedge eliminates price exposure, and it doesn't require an initial outlay of funds to purchase the grain. The rancher is hedged without having to take delivery of or store the grain until it is needed. The rancher doesn't even have to enter into the forward with the ultimate supplier of the grain and there is little or no initial cash outlay.

Both physical settlement and cash settlement options can be keyed to a wide variety of underlying assets including commodities, short-term debt, Eurodollar deposits, gold, foreign exchange, the S&P 500 stock index, etc.

Derivatives - The Futures Trade Process

Most U.S. futures exchanges offer two ways to enact a trade - the traditional floor-trading process (also called "open outcry") and electronic trading. The basic steps are essentially the same in either format: Customers submit orders that are executed - filled - by other traders who take equal but opposite positions, selling at prices at which other customers buy or buying at prices at which other customers sell. The differences are described below. Open outcry trading is the more traditional form of trading in the U.S. Brokers take orders (either bids to buy or offers to sell) by telephone or computer from traders (their customers). Those orders are then communicated orally to brokers in a trading pit. The pits are octagonal, multi-tiered areas on the floor of the exchange where traders conduct business. The traders wear different colored jackets and badges that indicate who they work for and what type of traders they are (FCM or local). It's called "open outcry" because traders shout and use various hand signals to relay information and the price at which they are willing to trade. Trades are executed (matches are made) when the traders agree on a price and the number of contracts either through verbal communication or simply some sort of motion such as a nod. The traders then turn their trade tickets over to their

clerks who enter the transaction into the system. Customers are then notified of their trades and pertinent information about each trade is sent to the clearing house and brokerages. In electronic trading, customers (who have been preapproved by a brokerage for electronic trading) send buy or sell orders directly from their computers to an electronic marketplace offered by the relevant exchange. There are no brokers involved in the process. Traders see the various bids and offers on their computers. The trade is executed by the traders lifting bids or hitting offers on their computer screens. The trading pit is, in essence, the trading screen and the electronic market participants replace the brokers standing in the pit. Electronic trading offers much greater insight into pricing because the top five current bids and offers are posted on the trading screen for all market participants to see. Computers handle all trading activity the software identifies matches of bids and offers and generally fills orders according to a first-in, first-out (FIFO) process. Dissemination of information is also faster on electronic trades. Trades made on CME Globex, for example, happen in milliseconds and are instantaneously broadcast to the public. In open outcry trading, however, it can take from a few seconds to minutes to execute a trade. Price Limit This is the amount a futures contract's price can move in one

day. Price limits are usually set in absolute dollar amounts the limit could be $5, for example. This would mean that the price of the contract could not increase or decrease by more than $5 in a single day. Limit Move A limit move occurs when a transaction takes place that would exceed the price limit. This freezes the price at the price limit. Limit Up The maximum amount by which the price of a futures contract may advance in one trading day. Some markets close trading of these contracts when the limit up is reached, others allow trading to resume if the price moves away from the day's limit. If there is a major event affecting the market's sentiment toward a particular commodity, it may take several trading days before the contract price fully reflects this change. On each trading day, the trading limit will be reached before the market's equilibrium contract price is met. Limit Down This is when the price decreases and is stuck at the lower price limit. The maximum amount by which the price of a commodity futures contract may decline in one trading day. Some markets close trading of contracts when the limit down is reached, others allow trading to resume if the price

moves away from the day's limit. If there is a major event affecting the market's sentiment toward a particular commodity, it may take several trading days before the contract price fully reflects this change. On each trading day, the trading limit will be reached before the market's equilibrium contract price is met. Locked Limit Occurs when the trading price of a futures contract arrives at the exchange's predetermined limit price. At the lock limit, trades above or below the lock price are not executed. For example, if a futures contract has a lock limit of $5, as soon as the contract trades at $5 the contract would no longer be permitted to trade above this price if the market is on an uptrend, and the contract would no longer be permitted to trade below this price if the market is on a downtrend. The main reason for these limits is to prevent investors from substantial losses that can occur as a result of the volatility found in futures markets. The Marking to Market Process

At the initiation of the trade, a price is set and money is deposited in the account. At the end of the day, a settlement price is determined by the clearing house. The account is then adjusted accordingly, either in a positive or negative manner, with funds either being drawn from or added to the

account based on the difference in the initial price and the settlement price.

The next day, the settlement price is used as the base price. As the market prices change through the next day, a new settlement price will be determined at the end of the day. Again, the account will be adjusted by the difference in the new settlement price and the previous night's price in the appropriate manner.


futures price will generally change daily, the difference in the prior agreed-upon price and the daily futures price is settled daily also (variation margin). The exchange will draw money out of one party's margin account and put it into the other's so that each party has the appropriate daily loss or profit. If the margin account goes below a certain value, then a margin call is made and the account owner must replenish the margin account. This process is known as marking to market. Thus on the delivery date, the amount exchanged is not the specified price on the contract but the spot value (i.e. the original value agreed upon, since any gain or loss has already been previously settled by marking to market). A closely related contract is a forward contract. A forward is like a futures in that it specifies the exchange of goods for a specified price at a specified future date. However, a forward is not traded on an exchange and thus does not have the interim partial payments due to marking to market. Nor is the contract standardized, as on the exchange. Unlike an option, both parties of a futures contract must fulfill the contract on the delivery date. The seller delivers the underlying asset to the buyer, or, if it is a cash-settled futures contract, then cash is transferred from the futures trader who sustained a loss to the one who made a profit. To exit the commitment prior to the settlement date, the holder of a futures position can close out its contract obligations by taking the opposite position on another futures contract on the same asset and settlement date. The difference in futures prices is then a profit or loss.

1 Origin 2 Margin 3 Settlement - physical versus cash-settled futures 4 Pricing

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4.1 Arbitrage arguments 4.2 Pricing via expectation 4.3 Relationship between arbitrage arguments and expectation

4.4 Contango and backwardation

5 Futures contracts and exchanges


5.1 Codes

6 Who trades futures?

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6.1 Hedgers 6.2 Speculators

7 Options on futures 8 Futures contract regulations 9 Definition of futures contract 10 Futures versus forwards
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10.1 Exchange versus OTC 10.2 Margining

11 Further reading 12 See also 13 Notes 14 References 15 U.S. Futures exchanges and regulators 16 External links

The first futures exchange market was the Djima Rice Exchange in Japan in the 1730s, to meet the needs of samurai whobeing paid in rice, and after a series of bad harvestsneeded a stable conversion to coin.[1] The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) listed the first ever standardized 'exchange traded' forward contracts in 1864, which were called futures contracts. This contract was based on grain trading and started a trend that saw contracts created on a number of differentcommodities as well as a number of futures exchanges set up in countries around the world.[2] By 1875 cotton futures were being traded in Mumbai in India and within a few years this had expanded to futures on edible oilseeds complex, raw jute and jute goods andbullion.[3]

Main article: Margin (finance)

To minimize credit risk to the exchange, traders must post a margin or a performance bond, typically 5%-15% of the contract's value. To minimize counterparty risk to traders, trades executed on regulated futures exchanges are guaranteed by a clearing house. The clearing house becomes the buyer to each seller, and the seller to each Buyer, so that in the event of a counterparty default the clearer assumes the risk of loss. This enables traders to transact without performing due diligence on their counterparty. Margin requirements are waived or reduced in some cases for hedgers who have physical ownership of the covered commodity or spread traders who have offsetting contracts balancing the position. Clearing margin are financial safeguards to ensure that companies or corporations perform on their customers' open futures and options contracts. Clearing margins are distinct from customer margins that individual buyers and sellers of futures and options contracts are required to deposit with brokers. Customer margin Within the futures industry, financial guarantees required of both buyers and sellers of futures contracts and sellers of options contracts to ensure fulfillment of contract obligations. Futures Commission Merchants are responsible for overseeing customer margin accounts. Margins are determined

on the basis of market risk and contract value. Also referred to as performance bond margin. Initial margin is the equity required to initiate a futures position. This is a type of performance bond. The maximum exposure is not limited to the amount of the initial margin, however the initial margin requirement is calculated based on the maximum estimated change in contract value within a trading day. Initial margin is set by the exchange. If a position involves an exchange-traded product, the amount or percentage of initial margin is set by the exchange concerned. In case of loss or if the value of the initial margin is being eroded, the broker will make a margin call in order to restore the amount of initial margin available. Often referred to as variation margin, margin called for this reason is usually done on a daily basis, however, in times of high volatility a broker can make a margin call or calls intra-day. Calls for margin are usually expected to be paid and received on the same day. If not, the broker has the right to close sufficient positions to meet the amount called by way of margin. After the position is closed-out the client is liable for any resulting deficit in the clients account. Some U.S. exchanges also use the term maintenance margin, which in effect defines by how much the value of the initial margin can reduce before a margin call is made. However, most non-US brokers only use the term initial margin and variation margin. The Initial Margin requirement is established by the Futures exchange, in contrast to other securities' Initial Margin (which is set by the Federal Reserve in the U.S. Markets). A futures account is marked to market daily. If the margin drops below the margin maintenance requirement established by the exchange listing the futures, a margin call will be issued to bring the account back up to the required level. Maintenance margin A set minimum margin per outstanding futures contract that a customer must maintain in their margin account.

Margin-equity ratio is a term used by speculators, representing the amount of their trading capital that is being held as margin at any particular time. The low margin requirements of futures results in substantial leverage of the investment. However, the exchanges require a minimum amount that varies depending on the contract and the trader. The broker may set the requirement higher, but may not set it lower. A trader, of course, can set it above that, if he does not want to be subject to margin calls. Performance bond margin The amount of money deposited by both a buyer and seller of a futures contract or an options seller to ensure performance of the term of the contract. Margin in commodities is not a payment of equity or down payment on the commodity itself, but rather it is a security deposit. Return on margin (ROM) is often used to judge performance because it represents the gain or loss compared to the exchanges perceived risk as reflected in required margin. ROM may be calculated (realized return) / (initial margin). The Annualized ROM is equal to (ROM+1)(year/trade_duration)-1. For example if a trader earns 10% on margin in two months, that would be about 77% annualized.

Settlement - physical versus cash-settled futures[edit]





When the deliverable asset exists in plentiful supply, or may be freely created, then the price of a futures contract is determined viaarbitrage arguments. This is typical for stock index futures, treasury bond futures, and futures on physical commodities when they are in supply (e.g. agricultural crops after the harvest). However, when the deliverable commodity is not in plentiful supply or when it does not yet exist - for example on crops before the harvest or on Eurodollar Futures or Federal funds rate futures (in which the supposed underlying instrument is to be created upon the delivery date) - the futures price

cannot be fixed by arbitrage. In this scenario there is only one force setting the price, which is simple supply and demand for the asset in the future, as expressed by supply and demand for the futures contract.

Arbitrage arguments[edit]
Arbitrage arguments ("Rational pricing") apply when the deliverable asset exists in plentiful supply, or may be freely created. Here, the forward price represents the expected future value of the underlying discounted at the risk free rateas any deviation from the theoretical price will afford investors a riskless profit opportunity and should be arbitraged away. We define the forward price to be the strike K such that the contract has 0 value at the present time. Assuming interest rates are constant the forward price of the future is equal to the forward price of the forward contract with the same strike and maturity. It is also the same if the underlying asset is uncorrelated with interest rates. Otherwise the difference between the forward price on the future (futures price) and forward price on the asset, is proportional to the covariance between the underlying asset price and interest rates. For example, a future on a zero coupon bond will have a futures price lower than the forward price. This is called the futures "convexity correction." Thus, assuming constant rates, for a simple, non-dividend paying asset, the value of the future/forward price, F(t,T), will be found by compounding the present value S(t) at time t to maturity T by the rate of risk-free return r.

or, with continuous compounding

This relationship may be modified for storage costs, dividends, dividend yields, and convenience yields. In a perfect market the relationship between futures and spot prices depends only on the above variables; in practice there are various market imperfections (transaction costs, differential borrowing and lending rates, restrictions on short selling) that prevent complete arbitrage. Thus, the


Pricing via expectation[edit]

When the deliverable commodity is not in plentiful supply (or when it does not yet exist) rational pricing cannot be applied, as the arbitrage mechanism is not applicable. Here the price of the futures is determined by today's supply and demand for the underlying asset in the future. In a deep and liquid market, supply and demand would be expected to balance out at a price which represents an unbiased expectationof the future price of the actual asset and so be given by the simple relationship.

By contrast, in a shallow and illiquid market, or in a market in which large quantities of the deliverable asset have been deliberately withheld from market participants (an illegal action known as cornering the market), the market clearing price for the futures may still represent the balance between supply and demand but the relationship between this price and the expected future price of the asset can break down.

Relationship between arbitrage arguments and expectation[edit]

The expectation based relationship will also hold in a no-arbitrage setting when we take expectations with respect to the risk-neutral probability. In other words: a futures price is martingale with respect to the risk-neutral probability. With this pricing rule, a speculator is expected to break even when the futures market fairly prices the deliverable commodity.

Contango and backwardation[edit]

The situation where the price of a commodity for future delivery is higher than the spot price, or where a far future delivery price is higher than a nearer future delivery, is known as contango. The reverse, where the price of a commodity for future delivery is lower than the


Futures contracts and exchanges[edit]

Contracts There are many different kinds of futures contracts, reflecting the many different kinds of "tradable" assets about which the contract may be based such as commodities, securities (such as single-stock futures), currencies or intangibles such as interest rates and indexes. For information on futures markets in specific underlying commodity markets, follow the links. For a list of tradable commodities futures contracts, see List of traded commodities. See also the futures exchange article.

Foreign exchange market Money market Bond market Equity market Soft Commodities market

Trading on commodities began in Japan in the 18th century with the trading of rice and silk, and similarly in Holland with tulip bulbs. Trading in the US began in the mid 19th century, when central grain markets were established and a marketplace was created for farmers to bring their commodities and sell them either for immediate delivery (also called spot or cash market) or for forward delivery. These forward contracts were private contracts between buyers and sellers and became the forerunner to today's exchange-traded futures contracts. Although contract trading began with traditional commodities such as grains, meat and livestock, exchange trading has expanded to include metals, energy, currency and currency indexes, equities and equity indexes, government interest rates and private interest rates. Exchanges

Contracts on financial instruments were introduced in the 1970s by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and these instruments became hugely successful and quickly overtook commodities futures in terms of trading volume and global accessibility to the markets. This innovation led to the introduction of many new futures exchanges worldwide, such as the London International Financial Futures Exchange in 1982 (now Euronext.liffe), Deutsche Terminbrse (now Eurex) and the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM). Today, there are more than 90 futures and futures options exchanges worldwide trading to include:

CME Group (formerly CBOT and CME) -- Currencies, Various Interest Rate derivatives (including US Bonds); Agricultural (Corn, Soybeans, Soy Products, Wheat, Pork, Cattle, Butter, Milk); Index (Dow Jones Industrial Average); Metals (Gold, Silver), Index (NASDAQ, S&P, etc.)

IntercontinentalExchange (ICE Futures Europe) - formerly the International Petroleum Exchange trades energy including crude oil, heating oil, gas oil (diesel), refined petroleum products, electric power, coal, natural gas, and emissions

NYSE Euronext - which absorbed Euronext into which London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange or LIFFE(pronounced 'LIFE') was merged. (LIFFE had taken over London Commodities Exchange ("LCE") in 1996)- softs: grains and meats. Inactive market in Baltic Exchange shipping. Index futures include EURIBOR, FTSE 100, CAC 40, AEX index.

South African Futures Exchange - SAFEX Sydney Futures Exchange Tokyo Stock Exchange TSE (JGB Futures, TOPIX Futures) Tokyo Commodity Exchange TOCOM Tokyo Financial Exchange - TFX - (Euroyen Futures, OverNight CallRate Futures, SpotNext RepoRate Futures) Osaka Securities Exchange OSE (Nikkei Futures, RNP Futures)

London Metal Exchange metals: copper, aluminium, lead, zinc, nickel, tin and steel IntercontinentalExchange (ICE Futures U.S.) - formerly New York Board of Trade - softs: cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar New York Mercantile Exchange CME Group- energy and metals: crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, coal, propane, gold,silver, platinum, copper, aluminum and pall adium

Dubai Mercantile Exchange Korea Exchange - KRX Singapore Exchange - SGX - into which merged Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX) ROFEX - Rosario (Argentina) Futures Exchange NCDEX - National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, India

Most Futures contracts codes are five characters. The first two characters identify the contract type, the third character identifies the month and the last two characters identify the year. Third (month) futures contract codes are

January = F February = G March = H April = J May = K June = M July = N August = Q September = U October = V November = X

December = Z

Example: CLX14 is a Crude Oil (CL), November (X) 2014 (14) contract.[5]

Who trades futures?[edit]

Futures traders are traditionally placed in one of two groups: hedgers, who have an interest in the underlying asset (which could include an intangible such as an index or interest rate) and are seeking to hedge out the risk of price changes; and speculators, who seek to make a profit by predicting market moves and opening a derivative contract related to the asset "on paper", while they have no practical use for or intent to actually take or make delivery of the underlying asset. In other words, the investor is seeking exposure to the asset in a long futures or the opposite effect via a short futures contract.

Hedgers typically include producers and consumers of a commodity or the owner of an asset or assets subject to certain influences such as an interest rate. For example, in traditional commodity markets, farmers often sell futures contracts for the crops and livestock they produce to guarantee a certain price, making it easier for them to plan. Similarly, livestock producers often purchase futures to cover their feed costs, so that they can plan on a fixed cost for feed. In modern (financial) markets, "producers" of interest rate swaps or equity derivative products will use financial futures or equity index futures to reduce or remove the risk on the swap. Those that buy or sell commodity futures need to be careful. If a company buys contracts hedging against price increases, but in fact the market price of the commodity is substantially lower at time of delivery, they could find themselves disastrously non-competitive (for example see: VeraSun Energy).

Speculators typically fall into three categories: position traders, day traders, and swing traders (swing trading), though many hybrid types and unique styles exist. With many investors pouring into the futures markets in recent years controversy has risen about whether speculators are responsible for increased volatility in commodities like oil, and experts are divided on the matter.

An example that has both hedge and speculative notions involves a mutual fund or separately managed account whose investment objective is to track the performance of a stock index such as the S&P 500 stock index. The Portfolio manager often "equitizes" cash inflows in an easy and cost effective manner by investing in (opening long) S&P 500 stock index futures. This gains the portfolio exposure to the index which is consistent with the fund or account investment objective without having to buy an appropriate proportion of each of the individual 500 stocks just yet. This also preserves balanced diversification, maintains a higher degree of the percent of assets invested in the market and helps reduce tracking error in the performance of the fund/account. When it is economically feasible (an efficient amount of shares of every individual position within the fund or account can be purchased), the portfolio manager can close the contract and make purchases of each individual stock. The social utility of futures markets is considered to be mainly in the transfer of risk, and increased liquidity between traders with different risk and time preferences, from a hedger to a speculator, for example.[citation needed]

Options on futures[edit]
In many cases, options are traded on futures, sometimes called simply "futures options". A put is the option to sell a futures contract, and a call is the option to buy a futures contract. For both, the option strike price is the specified futures price at which the future is traded if the

option is exercised. Futures are often used since they are delta one instruments. Calls and options on futures may be priced similarly to those on traded assets by using an extension of the Black-Scholes formula, namely the BlackScholes model for futures. Investors can either take on the role of option seller/option writer or the option buyer. Option sellers are generally seen as taking on more risk because they are contractually obligated to take the opposite futures position if the options buyer exercises their right to the futures position specified in the option. The price of an option is determined by supply and demand principles and consists of the option premium, or the price paid to the option seller for offering the option and taking on risk.[7]

Futures contract regulations[edit]

All futures transactions in the United States are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), an independent agency of the United States government. The Commission has the right to hand out fines and other punishments for an individual or company who breaks any rules. Although by law the commission regulates all transactions, each exchange can have its own rule, and under contract can fine companies for different things or extend the fine that the CFTC hands out. The CFTC publishes weekly reports containing details of the open interest of market participants for each market-segment that has more than 20 participants. These reports are released every Friday (including data from the previous Tuesday) and contain data on open interest split by reportable and non-reportable open interest as well as commercial and non-commercial open interest. This type of report is referred to as the 'Commitments of Traders Report', COT-Report or simply COTR.

Definition of futures contract[edit]

Following Bjrk[8] we give a definition of a futures contract. We describe a futures contract with delivery of item J at the time T:

There exists in the market a quoted price F(t,T), which is known as the futures price at time t for delivery of J at time T. The price of entering a futures contract is equal to zero. During any time interval amount market) , the holder receives the . (this reflects instantaneous marking to

At time T, the holder pays F(T,T) and is entitled to receive J. Note that F(T,T) should be the spot price of J at time T.

Futures versus forwards[edit]

While futures and forward contracts are both contracts to deliver an asset on a future date at a prearranged price, they are different in two main respects:

Futures are exchange-traded, while forwards are traded over-thecounter.

Thus futures are standardized and face an exchange, while forwards are customized and face a non-exchange counterparty.

Futures are margined, while forwards are not.

Thus futures have significantly less credit risk, and have different funding. The Futures Industry Association (FIA) estimates that 6.97 billion futures contracts were traded in 2007, an increase of nearly 32% over the 2006 figure.

Exchange versus OTC[edit]

Futures are always traded on an exchange, whereas forwards always trade over-the-counter, or can simply be a signed contract between two parties. Thus:

Futures are highly standardized, being exchange-traded, whereas forwards can be unique, being over-the-counter. In the case of physical delivery, the forward contract specifies to whom to make the delivery. The counterparty for delivery on a futures contract is chosen by the clearing house.

For more details on Margin, see Margin (finance). Futures are margined daily to the daily spot price of a forward with the same agreed-upon delivery price and underlying asset (based onmark to market). Forwards do not have a standard. They may transact only on the settlement date. More typical would be for the parties to agree to true up, for example, every quarter. The fact that forwards are not margined daily means that, due to movements in the price of the underlying asset, a large differential can build up between the forward's delivery price and the settlement price, and in any event, an unrealized gain (loss) can build up. Again, this differs from futures which get 'trued-up' typically daily by a comparison of the market value of the future to the collateral securing the contract to keep it in line with the brokerage margin requirements. This true-ing up occurs by the "loss" party providing additional collateral; so if the buyer of the contract incurs a drop in value, the shortfall or variation margin would typically be shored up by the investor wiring or depositing additional cash in the brokerage account. In a forward though, the spread in exchange rates is not trued up regularly but, rather, it builds up as unrealized gain (loss) depending on which side of the trade being discussed. This means that entire unrealized gain (loss) becomes realized at the time of delivery (or as what typically occurs, the time the contract is closed prior to expiration) - assuming the parties must transact at the underlying currency's spot price to facilitate receipt/delivery.

The result is that forwards have higher credit risk than futures, and that funding is charged differently. In most cases involving institutional investors, the daily variation margin settlement guidelines for futures call for actual money movement only above some insignificant amount to avoid wiring back and forth small sums of cash. The threshold amount for daily futures variation margin for institutional investors is often $1,000. The situation for forwards, however, where no daily true-up takes place in turn creates credit risk for forwards, but not so much for futures. Simply put, the risk of a forward contract is that the supplier will be unable to deliver the referenced asset, or that the buyer will be unable to pay for it on the delivery date or the date at which the opening party closes the contract. The margining of futures eliminates much of this credit risk by forcing the holders to update daily to the price of an equivalent forward purchased that day. This means that there will usually be very little additional money due on the final day to settle the futures contract: only the final day's gain or loss, not the gain or loss over the life of the contract. In addition, the daily futures-settlement failure risk is borne by an exchange, rather than an individual party, further limiting credit risk in futures. Example: Consider a futures contract with a $100 price: Let's say that on day 50, a futures contract with a $100 delivery price (on the same underlying asset as the future) costs $88. On day 51, that futures contract costs $90. This means that the "mark-to-market" calculation would requires the holder of one side of the future to pay $2 on day 51 to track the changes of the forward price ("post $2 of margin"). This money goes, via margin accounts, to the holder of the other side of the future. That is, the loss party wires cash to the other party.

A forward-holder, however, may pay nothing until settlement on the final day, potentially building up a large balance; this may be reflected in the mark by an allowance for credit risk. So, except for tiny effects of convexity bias (due to earning or paying interest on margin), futures and forwards with equal delivery prices result in the same total loss or gain, but holders of futures experience that loss/gain in daily increments which track the forward's daily price changes, while the forward's spot price converges to the settlement price. Thus, while under mark to market accounting, for both assets the gain or loss accrues over the holding period; for a futures this gain or loss is realized daily, while for a forward contract the gain or loss remains unrealized until expiry. Note that, due to the path dependence of funding, a futures contract is not, strictly speaking, a European-style derivative: the total gain or loss of the trade depends not only on the value of the underlying asset at expiry, but also on the path of prices on the way. This difference is generally quite small though. With an exchange-traded future, the clearing house interposes itself on every trade. Thus there is no risk of counterparty default. The only risk is that the clearing house defaults (e.g. become bankrupt), which is considered very unlikely.