Another scorcher....but relief in sight....

>> Thursday, June 24, 2010

Wednesday was the hottest day of the year thus far in many spots around the region, and today will be just as hot, if not a degree or two hotter. Look for lots of upper 90s today with heat index values over 100 and even over 105 at times this afternoon. Please take it easy with any outdoor plans.

A weakening frontal boundary is approaching our region, and that will bring with it the chance of some showers and storms. A few storms will likely fire this afternoon and this evening, and any storms that pop could produce vivid lightning and the possibility of damaging winds.

Tomorrow's forecast all depends on how far south that weak front makes it. For the time being, I will maintain pretty good chances of scattered showers and storms, but be aware, it might wind up being the higher rain chances are the farther south you head.

This weekend, the front will gradually wash out, and the rain chances will diminish. I still expect a few storms around, but the heat will remain a significant weather story with mid 90s Saturday and mid to upper 90s Sunday.

Relief is in sight....

A major pattern change will occur next week. A strong cold front will move through Monday into Tuesday, and along with it will come good shower and storm chances.

Behind that front, significantly cooler, drier air looks to take hold around mid-week and extend through much of the rest of the week. How about some mid 80s for highs with much lower humidity?!?!


Still watching our disturbance in the Caribbean. It is slowly trying to organize, but the convection associated with the wave is still disorganized. A recon plane is scheduled to investigate the system later today if necessary.


Bill 9:30 AM  

What determines how much lightning occurs with a storm? Sometimes storms roll through with big wind and tons of rain, but little or no lightning. While a weaker storm with mild wind and moderate rain may contain a ton of lightning. What conditions lead to frequent/vivid lightning? Thanks! Enjoying the blog.

Matthew East 10:28 AM  

Bill.....there are a number of factors, but one big thing that plays a role in lightning development is the amount of buoyancy (instability) aloft....especially in the region where the air is between -10 and -30 degrees C. If you think back to the storms a week or so ago, they were all prolific lightning producers, primarily due to a ton of CAPE (instability) in that region aloft.

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