Why deporting undocumented immigrants could slow US economy


WASHINGTON — If President Donald Trump's hardline stance on illegal immigration leads to large-scale deportations, among those hurt could be the U.S. economy.

That's the view of many economists, who say the United States can't afford to suddenly lose vast numbers of the immigrants who work illegally picking fruit and vegetables, building houses, busing tables, staffing meat-packing plants and cleaning hotel rooms.


"The economic shock would cause widespread ramifications," says Ben Gitis, director of labor market policy at the American Action Forum, a conservative think tank.

Addressing Congress on Tuesday night, Trump vowed to build "a great, great wall" to bar Mexican from entering the United States illegally. Even as he spoke, the president said, U.S. authorities were deporting the "bad ones."

The president's tough talk followed remarks he had made to CBS's "60 Minutes" after his November election: He warned that his administration might deport 2 million to 3 million of those living in the country illegally.


But in his speech Tuesday night, the president omitted any such suggestion. He instead promised to target people living in the United States illegally who "threaten our communities" and prey on "innocent citizens."

Economists note that immigrants, including those working in the country without permission, play a vital role in the U.S. economy, and not only because they fill many low-paying jobs that Americans won't or can't do. The United States, like Japan and Western Europe, is being hobbled economically by an aging and slower-growing workforce. Economic growth depends on a steadily growing supply of workers.


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As older Americans retire, younger ones are increasingly choosing to enroll in college rather than start work right out of high school. One result is that it's become harder for employers to fill the entry-level jobs that are often taken by immigrants living in the United State illegally.

Gitis reviewed the numbers and said he reached a striking conclusion: Suppose, he says, the United States were to deport or otherwise lose all the estimated 6.8 million immigrants working in the country illegally. At full employment, there wouldn't be enough legal workers to fill all those jobs. At least 4 million jobs would go unfilled.



But researchers Ethan Lewis of Dartmouth College and Michael Clemens and Hannah Postel of the Center for Global Development found that barring Mexican farm workers "failed to raise wages or substantially raise employment for domestic workers." Instead of hiring Americans, farms turned to machines to pick cotton and tomatoes and to tend to sugar beets.




In a 2013 study, the Social Security Administration found that immigrants living in the country without permission had paid $13 billion into Social Security in 2010 and received only $1 billion in benefits. The administration concluded that their contributions had had "a net positive effect" on Social Security finances.

So mass deportations mean "we'd not only be losing workers," Gitis says. "We'd lose consumers, even taxpayers."



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