[Question] alternative history: what if Bayes rule had never been discovered?

In try­ing to un­der­stand how Bayesian prob­a­bil­ity is used, I’m cu­ri­ous to know what wouldn’t have been pos­si­ble with­out it. how im­por­tant was it in the course of hu­man dis­cov­ery, and in turn, how it effected his­tory.

I don’t de­mand rigor­ous an­swers, feel free to spec­u­late and throw pos­si­bil­ities as you like.

Bonus ques­tion: if Bayes didn’t dis­cover it, when would it have to be dis­cov­ered? (full spec­u­la­tion mode)