Box Office: Why 'Alita' Might Succeed Where 'Valerian' And 'Jupiter Ascending' Failed

'Alita: Battle Angel'

20th Century Fox

For those so inclined, Fox is doing a free nationwide sneak preview tomorrow night for Alita: Battle Angel. I remain heartened by this trend of nationwide sneak previews that has become par for the course (DreamWorks Animation and Universal/Comcast's How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, which is pretty darn good, is sneaking on Saturday). The trend seems to be about building old-fashioned word-of-mouth as opposed to merely bludgeoning moviegoers with saturation-level marketing. Yes, it is bemusing that we're seeing this with the biggest of the big movies (as opposed to smaller counterprogramming offerings), but that's theatrical moviegoing in a nutshell in 2019. But I digress. On paper, the $200 million+ sci-fi action fantasy is just the kind of movie that seems painfully doomed in 2019.

It has no "butts-in-the-seats" stars (all due respect to Jennifer Connelly, Christoph Waltz and Mahershala Ali), is based on a cult anime and is the kind of "a world unlike you've ever seen" new-to-cinemas fantasy that has fallen on hard times in our IP-specific, nostalgia-driven culture. In all likelihood, the Robert Rodriguez-directed/James Cameron-produced 3-D fantasy is going to follow the same grim path as Jupiter Ascending ($185 million on a $175m budget), Tomorrowland ($209m/$190m), Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets ($225m/$177m) and Mortal Engines ($85m/$100m). But what if it doesn't? What if Alita is the exception to the rule? This is NOT a prediction, merely an idea. Because the trailers and related marketing have been doing it right in terms of what to focus on.

The marketing for Alita has focused almost entirely on Alita herself. Yes, there is plenty of "Here's the world in which this movie exists" moments in the previews, music videos, various featurettes and clips. The first trailer lays out the post-apocalyptic status quo, with tales of a past-tense war where the ground shook and the sky burned. But from the first teaser to (two weeks out) the latest clip (released five hours ago) have kept the focused squarely on the superpowered robot/human/etc. and why she's cool enough to anchor a mega-budget motion picture. Yes, the film is being sold as a superhero story, one concerning a young girl (played by Rosa Salazar) whose journey to discover the truth about her origins supersedes any franchise-friendly worldbuilding.

Audiences now only show up for movies when those movies feature a lead character whom they want to see. Hunger Games succeeded because of Katniss Everdeen and Bohemian Rhapsody succeeded because Freddie Mercury is a movie star. This is why superhero movies are at such an advantage at the moment since folks do want to see Venom, Deadpool, Black Panther and Aquaman brought to life on the silver screen. The best chance at Alita succeeding is to convince audiences that the character, not the world. the mythology or the mega-budget fantasy is worth that ticket. If people look at the marketing and decide that they want to see Alita kicking ass onscreen, they'll show up. If not, then little else (not even rave reviews or the James Cameron angle) will matter.

Again, maybe this is all false hope. Yes, the movie looks great, with gorgeous and uncluttered visuals, intriguing action and just enough character work to provide hope that it's not just empty spectacle. And lord knows I'm a firm believer in James Cameron (give or take Terminator 6). A movie like this would have been a guaranteed mega-smash even six or seven years ago. But now, it's the very definition of a longshot, to the point where Fox moved it out of the Christmas season and plopped it on President's Day weekend. That in itself is not a bad thing (Black PantherDeadpoolGhost Rider and Daredevil have done just fine on that holiday frame), but such a move didn't save Jupiter Ascending.

Presuming it's at least pretty good, if it breaks out it will be because Fox and friends chose to focus on what matters. Audiences will (or won't) show up for Alita: Battle Angel almost entirely due to their interest in the lead character. The promise of a mystery box didn't sell Tomorrowland. The promise of newfangled Star Wars didn't sell Mortal Engines or Valerian. And the mere idea of a new sci-fi fantasy from the sisters who gave us The Matrix didn't move the needle with Jupiter Ascending, even with Mila Kunis and Channing Tatum onboard. But if Fox successfully convinces us that Alita isn't just "the special" but special enough to justify a theatrical viewing, then they might just beat the odds.

If you feel like spoiling yourself with clips (I mostly skimmed for the purposes of this article), here you go:

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