'Our toehold in space is at extreme risk': Russia's rocket failure has thrown astronaut access to the International Space Station into limbo

soyuz ms 10 rocket launch flight photographers expedition 57 crew nasa reuters 2018 10 11T091619Z_1854069770_RC17A46851B0_RTRMADP_3_SPACE STATION LAUNCH.JPGPhotographers take pictures as the Soyuz MS-10 spacecraft carrying the crew of astronaut Nick Hague of the U.S. and cosmonaut Alexey Ovchinin of Russia blasts off to the International Space Station (ISS) from the launchpad at the Baikonur Cosmodrome on October 11, 2018.Reuters

  • The two crew members had a rough descent back to Earth, but survived without any apparent injury.
  • Roscosmos, Russia's space agency, is investigating the Soyuz rocket failure, but it's unknown how long this will take.
  • Soyuz is the only human-rated spacecraft available to NASA, Europe, Russia, and other partners of the International Space Station - but it is now grounded indefinitely.



After NASA retired its space shuttle fleet in 2011 without a replacement, the US was left without its own spaceship to fly people to and from the International Space Station (ISS).


So for the past seven years, the US, Russia, Europe, Japan, and others have relied on one, and only one, viable crewed launch system: the Soyuz, which is now grounded until further notice.

"The Soyuz has been a reliable workhorse we could count on to safely deliver crews to the ISS," Wayne Hale - an engineer, rocket accident investigator, and a former NASA space shuttle director - told Business Insider in an email.



soyuz russia roscosmos spaceship nasaA three-module Soyuz spacecraft.NASA




What went wrong during the Russian rocket launch

soyuz ms 10 rocket kazakhstan roscosmos nasa 44297507175_10d30e86ff_oThe Soyuz rocket is rolled out by train to the launch pad, Tuesday, Oct. 9, 2018 at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. Expedition 57 crewmembers Nick Hague of NASA and Alexey Ovchinin of Roscosmos are scheduled to launch on October 11 and will spend the next six months living and working aboard the International Space Station.Bill Ingalls/NASA





Todd couldn't say whether the second-stage rocket exploded or simply lost thrust, but estimated the crew ejected about 30 miles above Earth, which is halfway to the edge of space.


cosmonaut alexey ovchinin astronaut nick hague soyuz ms 10 flight expedition 57 crew nasa 29996160677_e33702f066_oAt the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, Expedition 57 crew members Alexey Ovchinin of Roscosmos (left) and Nick Hague of NASA (right) pose for pictures in front of their Soyuz MS-10 spacecraft Sept. 26 during final pre-launch training. Ovchinin and Hague will launch Oct. 11 in the Soyuz MS-10 from the Baikonur Cosmodrome for a six-month mission on the International Space Station.Victor Zelentsov/NASA

During the first leg part of its 34-minute journey back to Earth, the capsule entered what's called a ballistic descent - essentially the equivalent of falling out of the sky like a stone thrown into the air.







Roscosmos is looking into the failure that led to aborting the mission. Some Russian media outlets are even reporting that a criminal investigation has been launched, perhaps in light of drill holes recently discovered on a Soyuz spacecraft docked to the ISS.

soyuz ms 10 rocket launch failure space alexander gerst esa nasa 44335552035_379e463dd4_oA view of the Soyuz MS-10 failure from space on October 11, 2018.Alexander Gerst/ESA/NASA via Flickr



Gerst is currently living aboard the space station with NASA astronaut Serena Auñón-Chancellor and cosmonaut Sergey Prokopyev, and the plan for the crew is now uncertain.


international space station iss nasaThe International Space Station (ISS).NASA

No one is certain exactly what the plan is yet for Auñón-Chancellor, Gerst, and Prokopyev, who were scheduled to return to Earth in December.


This is only true in terms of keeping the ISS staffed. The crew does have another Soyuz spacecraft attached to the space station, and they can board it to evacuate - either in an emergency or at the direction of mission control.



Since the Soyuz lifeboat arrived in June, this means the crew might be forced to evacuate in January, Todd said. This is more likely to happen if a Soyuz that's scheduled for launch in December doesn't fly as planned. (The next Soyuz flight after that is currently scheduled for April.)



alexander gerst european german astronaut thumbs up esa nasaESA astronaut Alexander Gerst gives a thumbs-up before a spacewalk outside the International Space Station.ESA/NASA




But if it comes to it, they said it can be fully evacuated and operated remotely for some time, especially given several redundant systems.


Why can't Boeing and SpaceX step in to help?

nasa astronauts commercial crew program august 2018 AP_18215575643268Nine astronauts will fly the first four crewed missions inside SpaceX and Boeing's new spaceships for NASA, called Crew Dragon and CST-100 Starliner, respectively.NASA via AP



Equally uncertain is what fixes might need to be made to Soyuz - and Russia's Progress cargo spaceships, which use the same rocket system - and how long those alterations might take.








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