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On redistricting and race






The activist groups waived their right to give an opening statement.













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  1. Mainstream says:

    What happened in Alabama has also taken place here in Harris Co. There used to be Anglo Democrats among our officeholders, but now are few. Some get beat in primaries by minority Democrats (Chris Bell by Al Green, Bailey by Walle, Hackney by Turner). Others lose in the general election, like Cohen to Sarah Davis.

    The real problem is the interpretation of the Voting Rights Act by minority advocacy groups like MALDEF, NAACP, ACLU, GI Forum, Lawyers Comm on Civil Rights and by the Department of Justice in their support. And some GOP lawyers have colluded in this, strategically. These minority advocates, like Joe Reed in Alabama, have fought for districts which are 65% minority, on the theory that minority voter registration, election turnout, candidate funding, and mobilization might lag Anglos. (In fact in urban areas black turnout often exceeds Anglo these days.) So they end up with districts which they win easily in November with figures like 75% to 80%, but all the adjacent districts flip to the GOP.

    There are instances where districts with smaller than 65% black or Hispanic percentages fail to elect the candidate preferred by black or Hispanic voters, for example Zeph Capo dislodging Yolanda Navarro Flores, or Dave Wilson pipping Bruce Austin, but they usually involve extreme facts, poor campaigns, low information contests. And I am unsure if Flores really was preferred by Hispanics in her district, or if Austin was really strongly supported by blacks in his district. I have not analyzed precinct level data for either contest.

    If the districts were more racially balanced, you might get more competitive elections in November, and politicians on both sides of the political and racial divides showing greater interest in the voters who make up the rest of their district.

  2. Greg Wythe says:

    Minor clarification: Turner didn’t beat Hackney. HD139 was an open seat in 1988.

    In many cases, as Anglo support for Dems declined over the years, many of the old districts held by Anglo Dems were increasingly reliant on votes from fractured minority voters. I’m pretty sure Ron Wilson made this point about the old CD25 for 14 years prior to Al Green’s election to Congress and Eddie Bernice Johnson was making a similar point about south Dallas while Martin Frost was being sent to Congress.

  3. Manuel Barrera says:

    Seems there are not enough White Democrats in Harris County. Don’t forget Gene Green, Laster, Eastman, and Capo. Right now there are four White Democrats sitting in seats that were drawn for Latinos. It would not be a problem if they represented the districts in the same manner that Gene Green has done. Unfortunately that has not been the case and that will come back to bite the Democratic Party.

    We can’t forget that Lane Lewis, Democratic Chair, locked the doors to the Dreamers and refused to speak to them.

    One of the darlings of the White Democrats is Adrian Garcia who pushed for safe communities and deports more Latinos than Sheriff Arpiao.

    The number of Latinos that vote increase every year don’t be surprise when they turn against the Democratic Party, the only thing keeping some of them there is that the Republican Party keeps pushing hate of Latinos but there are exceptions like Norm Adams and others.

  4. Greg Wythe says:

    I’m not sure that it does anything to confuse the impact of redistricting with that of voter support. My earlier point was that the slippage in support from Anglo voters has been fairly gradual. By several anecdotal statewide estimates, that means we went from 30%-or-so in the 80s and 90s to 20-25% today. The reason you only see so few Anglo Dems in elective office, I would argue, has more to do with packing minority voters into increasingly self-contained districts.

    The districts represented by Capo, Eastman, and Laster vary greatly in terms of potential Hispanic voting strength, with COH District J in particular being nowhere near close to being “drawn for Latinos.”

    COH-J (Laster) – 25% H-CVAP; 17% SSRV – not drawn to elect a Latino
    HCC-1 (Capo) – 54% H-VAP – below majority in H-CVAP and SSRV – competitive, but election year increases chances for Anglo candidates.
    HISD-1 (Eastman) – 59% H-CVAP – below majority in H-CVAP and SSRV – the most competitive of the three.

    Also interesting is that you identify three districts that are (a) non-partisan, and (b) elected in odd-numbered years. The latter of those conditions dampens support for Latino candidates greatly. Had those officials needed to face more Hispanic voters in an even-numbered year, maybe you’d find them as responsive as Gene Green.

    But then again, if we did hold City of Houston elections in even-numbered years, for instance, you’d be far more likely to see a moderate-to-progressive Dem candidate elected in District A and F.

  5. Manuel Barrera says:

    District J was called a Latino District, could a more winnable district for Latinos been drawn? Yes, but if memory serves me correct Wythe one of those folks speaking in favor of the adopted map.

    What is occurring but not noticeable is that Latinos are voting more, slowly but surely. The problem is that all data is obtained from low income neighborhoods. Latinos are scattered all over the place. There are over 200,000 registered Latinos in Harris County the vast majority within the City limits.

    The problem is that Whites whether Democrats or Republicans will not support a Latino over a White candidate in non partisan races, that is the rule but there are always exception.

    If one looks at the votes for at large Morales v Kubosh, White liberal areas supported the white conservative by small margins but almost all precincts. Same thing happened with Capo v Flores, same with Eastman v Latina (don’t recall last name).

    With Republicans at least I know they particularly don’t care for Latinos, the Democrats, in Harris county, claim they do but then tend to not support the Latino candidates.

    In 2002 Sanchez barely carried the white liberal areas against Perry.

    There are exception as mentioned before Adrian Garcia is one of them, one could add Sylvia Garcia, and Jessica Farrar who won with mostly the white vote in her first and second win.

    What the white liberals have to realize that the needs of the Latino community are not the same as for the white liberal community. Some compromise will be necessary otherwise the Democratic boat will not raise to the top in Harris county and probably the state.

    I would not be surprised to see Democrats lose some judge positions this year.

    I for one have only one person that I intend to vote for and that is the one running against Dan Patrick.

  6. Greg Wythe says:

    The only references to District J as a Latino District that I’m aware of are the Houston Chronicle editorial board and headline writers, Yolanda Black Navarro, and a certain other Latino blogger who shall remain nameless. I not only spoke against the map, but presented an alternate map with a northside opportunity district.

    I also participated in the meetings to create some agreement on a revision of the Mayor’s initial proposal and made it clear to all involved there that District J would not be the opportunity they were hoping it would be. All involved knew that District J would not produce a viable opportunity for Latino candidates, although it isn’t completely out of the question for a Latino Republican candidate if the voters in Sharpstown are angry enough at whoever the mayor is.

    That aside, I agree with you that there are significant differences among white liberals and Dem-leaning Latinos. The larger reality is that the Democratic Party has historically been a coalition party. So the challenges posed by those differences aren’t new. There are differences among white liberals and African-American voters. There are differences between young liberals and old moderates (even those of us who refuse to be thought of as “old”). None of that has changed drastically over time.

  7. Manuel Barrera says:

    Well I apologize as I thought you had supported the map as drawn.

    You are correct about a Republican Latino in District J possibly being able to win.

    The differences between where white liberals, Latinos, want the Democratic party have grown. For many Latinos immigration is an issue and that one issue seems to drive many of them, I know it does me.

    I do not understand why someone like Adrian Garcia was leading the charge for Safe Communities. I fail to understand why Lane Lewis locked the doors and refused to speak to the Dreamers. There are are way too many young Americans that reach 18 every years whose parents are at risk of being deported.

    I certainly don’t understand why the chief clerk for JP Risner, could make a statement that she was going out “wetback” hunting and the Democratic party fails to say anything to her.

    Makes one wonder where the Democratic Party in Harris county is when it concerns immigration issues and Latinos.

    There are two groups that are growing in population in Harris county, Latinos and Asians.