Wednesday, October 10, 2018

If the SNP end up using the 2021 election to seek a constitutional mandate, it must be an outright mandate for independence, not another mandate for a referendum

If Brian Taylor was correct on last night's Reporting Scotland - and I emphasise the word "if" - that there are senior people in the SNP talking up the possibility of letting the mandate for an indyref expire and seeking yet another fresh mandate for a referendum in 2021, then all I can say is no no no no no no NO.  That was a bad enough idea when people were still nursing the theory that Westminster can be cajoled into respecting a mandate if it's somehow 'impeccable' enough, but it's absolute madness now that both the Tories and Labour have decided that Britain is a prison from which Scotland is permitted no exit.  What actually would be the point of seeking an 'even better' mandate than the one we already have if it's going to be ignored anyway?

The only possible answer I can think of to that question is that if we're going to press ahead with a consultative referendum without a Section 30 order, it's best to be as specific as possible about our intentions at the point of actually seeking the mandate for it.  But the problem with that argument is that a consultative referendum is in all likelihood contingent upon the whim of the UK Supreme Court.  If a referendum is blocked by legal challenge, there needs to be a back-up plan, which realistically can only mean using a Holyrood election to seek an outright mandate for independence.  If you've already wasted the 2021 election pointlessly obtaining another referendum mandate that proved to be a dead end, that could mean waiting until 2026.  I know there are a minority of people in the SNP who privately share Theresa May's view that "now is not the time", but with Scotland about to be dragged out of the EU, the single market and the customs union against its will, and with the devolution settlement Scotland voted for in 1997 having just been destroyed, surely nobody can seriously believe that 2026 is the right time.

No, if a consultative referendum is going to be attempted, it has to be done the other way around - before 2021, using the existing mandate, so that if the Supreme Court blocks it, the 2021 election can then be used as the back-up option to seek an outright mandate for independence.

*  *  *

I feel like I've been stranded in Antarctica, rather than the Highlands, because in addition to overlooking the second poll from Survation, I somehow also managed to miss a full-scale Scottish poll from Panelbase at the weekend.  It shows much the same no change picture as the online Survation poll, leaving little remaining room for doubt that the SNP have escaped unscathed from the hysterical reporting of the Alex Salmond story a few weeks ago.


SNP 38% (n/c)
Conservatives 27% (n/c)
Labour 24% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 41% (n/c)
Conservatives 26% (-1)
Labour 21% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 35% (-1)
Conservatives 26% (-1)
Labour 20% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+1)
Greens 7% (-1)
UKIP 2% (+1)

Tuesday, October 9, 2018

Survation telephone poll reveals astonishing recovery in support for independence since last June

So profuse apologies once again for the dog's breakfast of the last two posts.  I spent last night in a Highland hotel with a large Union Jack on the outside and a very dodgy wifi on the inside, and when you're dealing with a non-user-friendly website like Survation's, things are a bit tricky at the best of times.  But thankfully Calum Findlay rode to the rescue and explained everything.  Basically there was not one new Survation poll, but two.  They were published more or less simultaneously, hence the confusion.  One was a telephone poll commissioned by the SNP, and the other was an online poll commissioned by the Sunday Post.  The fieldwork dates were close but not identical - the online poll was conducted between 28th September and 2nd October, and the telephone poll was conducted between the 3rd and 5th of October.

All of this puts a rather different (and for the most part more positive) complexion on things.  It means we can use the online poll to make a direct comparison with the previous online Survation poll in July, rather than comparing apples and oranges by looking at the difference between a July online poll and an October phone poll.  And the direct comparison suggests that nothing much has changed at all - not in respect of Westminster voting intentions, or of Holyrood voting intentions, or of independence referendum voting intentions.


SNP 41% (-1)
Conservatives 26% (+2)
Labour 24% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-1)

In contrast to the telephone poll, then, the online numbers suggest that the SNP's lead over both the Tories and Labour is still significantly more handsome than it was in last year's general election. If that's replicated on polling day, it would lead to dramatic seat gains.  (Although as I pointed out last night, even on the telephone numbers the SNP would be in line to make modest gains.)

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 43% (-1)
Conservatives 24% (n/c)
Labour 23% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 9% (n/c)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 32% (-1)
Labour 23% (+2)
Conservatives 21% (+2)
Greens 10% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-2)

In respect of Holyrood, the big difference from the telephone poll is on the list, where Survation's online methodology is continuing to produce (in my opinion) an unrealistically low vote for SNP.  It's not clear whether that's simply because online respondents are more Green-friendly, or whether Survation's inexplicable decision to describe the list vote to online (but not telephone) respondents as a "second" vote is the major factor.  It may well be a combination of both.

One thing is for sure, though.  This is the first Scotland-only polling since the Alex Salmond story broke a few weeks ago, and there is no sign whatever that the SNP have suffered any lasting damage from that particular lightning bolt.  Unionist hopes dashed again.

Strangely, the Sunday Post tweeted independence figures at the weekend from the SNP's telephone poll, rather than the online poll they commissioned themselves.  (No wonder I was getting confused.)  On the Post's figures, Yes are on 47% rather than 46%, which means that support for independence has remained unchanged, rather than slipping by one point as I wrongly suggested in a previous post.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 47% (n/c)
No 53% (n/c)

And as Calum pointed out, although the telephone poll has Yes a touch lower on 46%, that actually represents a whopping increase of 7% since the Survation telephone poll of June 2017, which is technically the last directly comparable poll.

Should Scotland be an independent country?  (telephone fieldwork)

Yes 46% (+7)
No 54% (-7)

I struggle in vain to see much bad news in that little lot.

Monday, October 8, 2018

Survation sensation as new poll puts SNP on course for OVERALL MAJORITY in the Scottish Parliament

My apologies - I'm really playing catch-up with this latest Survation poll.  I've been away on a long weekend in the Highlands which has just been extended for another night because of bad weather, but I'll get home and post some proper analysis eventually!  In the meantime, here are the voting intention numbers for Westminster and Holyrood.  It's intriguing that this poll was commissioned by the SNP and that they've elected to publish the results in full, because as you can see they're a bit of a curate's egg affair.  The last Survation poll back in the summer was conducted by online panel and this one was conducted by telephone, so a meaningful comparison isn't possible, but I've added in the percentage changes from one to the other in italics for the sheer hell of it, as it's the only comparison available.  On that basis the new results are perhaps a bit disappointing in Westminster terms (although even on these numbers the SNP would be gaining seats), static on the Holyrood constituency vote (albeit static from an outstandingly good position) and mind-bogglingly wonderful on the Holyrood list vote.  But if you think the direction of travel on the list is a bit too good to be true, you're probably correct - if it's not an illusion caused by the switch to telephone fieldwork, it looks like it may have been an illusion caused by other methodological differences.

Scottish voting intentions for next UK general election:

SNP 37% (-5)
Conservatives 28% (+4)
Labour 26% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-2)

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot voting intentions:

SNP 44% (n/c)
Conservatives 24% (n/c)
Labour 23% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-1)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot voting intentions:

SNP 40% (+7)
Conservatives 25% (+6)
Labour 22% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-2)
Greens 4% (-7)

Other than polling by telephone, Survation have done two things differently that could have contributed to the huge changes on the list vote - they haven't offered UKIP as a specific option this time (thus presumably boosting the Tories) and they haven't referred to the list vote as a "second" vote, which may have helped to bring about an astonishing 7% 'swing' from Green to SNP.   Of course it may just be that telephone respondents are far less into the Greens than online respondents are, but nevertheless it's startling to ponder the possibility that the deletion of a single word might have had a rather big effect.  It obviously raises the question of whether the cause of the SNP's suspiciously poor showings on the list in recent online Survation polls was that many SNP voters were misled into thinking they were being asked for a second preference vote, and were thus plumping for the Greens.

As noted above, the Westminster figures are underwhelming but OK to be getting on with.  The SNP have been as low as 37% in a post-election Survation poll before, and their 42% in the last Survation poll was unusually high, so there's no reason to jump to the conclusion that telephone polls will always show a lower SNP vote for Westminster.  When rounded to one decimal place, the figure is 37.4%, which is still a touch higher than the 36.9% achieved in June 2017.  The SNP's lead over both the Tories and Labour is also slightly higher than it was last year, which is why they remain (just about) on course to gain seats at Westminster rather than to lose them.

As far as Holyrood is concerned, it's been rare in recent times for any opinion poll to point to a pro-independence parliamentary majority, let alone an outright SNP majority.  But arguably, on these figures, the SNP would just about make it over the line on their own.  And that might just be (at least partly) because of the omission of that rogue word 'second'.  Never let it be said that misinformation about how the voting system works doesn't matter, or shouldn't be called out.

UPDATE: Please see Calum's comment below for important information that I'd overlooked (which contradicts some of the above).

Sunday, October 7, 2018

Stupefying Survation survey suggests Scotland will vote Yes to independence if there's a No Deal Brexit

There was a troll in the comments section a week or two back who claimed as a point of 'fact' that support for independence is now lower than it was in September 2014.  I deleted his comment for spreading misinformation, and then he came back with so-called 'proof' (which of course was no such thing) and started squealing about "censorship".  Well, right on cue we have new Survation polling on independence that continues to show a Yes vote that is slightly higher than the 45% recorded in 2014.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 46%
No 54%

Attracting more interest, though, are two hypothetical questions asking how people would vote in the event of two Brexit-related scenarios:

In the event of Brexit:

Yes 50%
No 50%

In the event of a no deal Brexit:

Yes 52%
No 48%

Which of course is strikingly similar to the results of a poll by another firm a few weeks ago.  I'm away for the weekend, but I'll update this post with more details and analysis as soon as I can.