Commentary: Europe can help the UK kill second Brexit referendum idea

Commentary: Europe can help the UK kill second Brexit referendum idea

It is also in the European Union’s interest to seek out an endgame to this Brexit rollercoaster ride, says Science Po’s Jean Pisani-Ferry.

Campaigners on both sides of the Brexit debate have continued to take to the streets -- long after
Campaigners on both sides of the Brexit debate have continued to take to the streets - long after the referendum - to get their voices heard. (Photo: AFP/Oli Scarff)




After a series of strategic mishaps and tactical blunders by Prime Minister Theresa May, the Tory infighting came to a head in mid-January, when Parliament voted down her negotiated exit agreement. It made clear that May lacks support within her own party for a realistic compromise with the EU.

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At the same time, a majority of MPs and British voters oppose the “no-deal” exit advocated by hardline Tory Euroskeptics. That scenario would put the UK in breach of legally binding international commitments, jeopardise the 1998 agreement that ended violent sectarian conflict in Northern Ireland, and result in immediate economic costs and job losses.



The EU finds itself in a rather different situation. Since the referendum, the 27 other member states have displayed impeccable unity; their chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, has made skillful use of his mandate. The EU has steadfastly rejected Britain’s demand for an unbundling of the single market, as well as any scenario that could result in new customs checks on Irish soil.


Britain&apos;s Prime Minister Theresa May leaves from the back of 10 Downing Street in London
Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May leaves from the back of 10 Downing Street in London, Jan 14, 2019. (Reuters/Clodagh Kilcoyne)





This week, MPs from both the Conservative and Labour Parties attempted to build an alliance and seize control of the Brexit process from May. 

In the event, their effort failed, and the Prime Minister successfully rallied her camp around an amendment giving her a mandate to go back to the EU and negotiate unspecified “alternative arrangements” for the Irish question.

The EU’s immediate and legitimate reaction was to refuse to re-open negotiations that had been concluded in November. 

But it should not wash its hands of Brexit. It is not for the EU to choose for the British people, but it cannot escape its responsibility for the choice they are being offered.

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The EU must now, de facto, decide whether to let the UK choose between the existing agreement and no deal, between no deal and a second referendum, or between no deal and a revised exit agreement. Whatever position it takes, will determine the binary question that the British must ultimately answer.


But if the EU does assume this uncompromising stance, it will further weaken May, embolden the hardline Brexiteers, limit the space for parliamentary initiatives, and leave no time for a second referendum.

Brexit file photo
Pro-EU demonstrators hold placards and wave flags during an anti-Brexit protest outside the Houses of Parliament in London, Jun 12, 2018. (File photo: AFP/Daniel Leal-Olivas)

The UK will have to choose between crashing out and accepting the deal it rejected a few weeks ago. This hardball strategy might work, but it would also increase the risk of an acrimonious no-deal Brexit.


The EU’s second option is to remain firm on substance, but to accept an extension of the Mar 29 deadline if the UK holds another referendum.

This would strengthen the position of those in Britain who are calling for a “people’s vote” on the country’s options. “Remain” would gain traction, and a no-deal scenario would become less likely.


The EU’s third option is to express openness to a marginally amended deal. It could either offer a concession that would help May save face on the Irish question, or reach out to the would-be alliance of Labour and Tory MPs who favour a soft Brexit by accepting a short extension of the March deadline in order to hold a substantive discussion on a future partnership agreement. 

Either option would foreclose a second referendum, and a revised deal would gain the edge over a “hard” Brexit.

READ: Proud to be a Brit despite Brexit, a commentary

For Europeans who were rightly shocked by the demagogy and outright lies of the “Leave” campaign, creating the conditions for another referendum (the second option) is tempting.


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A EU flag is seen outside the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels
A European Union flag seen outside the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium November 14, 2018. (File photo: REUTERS/Francois Lenoir)

Given the obvious economic and political costs of the first option, the third option now seems like the best way forward. 

The EU should stand firm on principles, but consider either a softening of the negotiated deal or a short deadline extension for talks about the future, if there is a bipartisan appetite for it.

A partnership between Britain and the EU would preserve the close economic, political, and security links that have been built over decades. And the EU would be better able to address the challenges of its own differentiated integration.



Source: Project Syndicate/sl