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December 23, 1991, Page 00001 The New York Times Archives

The six-month civil war in Yugoslavia has killed thousands of soldiers and civilians, wrecked Eastern Europe's most promising economy, created half a million refugees and stirred enough hatred to incite generations of future conflict. But it has not yet produced a decisive military result.

The Serbian-dominated Yugoslav Army and its allies, the Serbian militias and irregulars, are bogged down after seizing control of a third of the separatist republic of Croatia and have recently withdrawn from several forward positions. Meanwhile, the hurriedly organized Croatian army is beginning to score some minor victories, raising hopes among politicians in Zagreb, the Croatian capital, that the lost lands may some day be regained.

Analysts say that with neither side able to land a knockout blow, and with neither apparently willing to negotiate, the elements are in place for a protracted struggle between Serbia and Croatia, the two largest Yugoslav republics.

"This is a recipe for war without end," said John Zametica, a fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "It's going to get much worse. So far, we've had a bit of a tea party compared to what's coming."

Many diplomats and observers fear the war could worsen as a result of Germany's successful campaign to extend diplomatic recognition to Croatia and Slovenia, the other republic that declared its independence in June. This week Bonn prodded its more reluctant allies in the 12-nation European Community to agree to recognize by Jan. 15 any independence-minded Yugoslav republic that respects human rights, established borders and the peaceful arbitration of differences.

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The German Foreign Minister, Hans-Dietrich Genscher, has argued that sanctions against Serbia, coupled with diplomatic recognition of Croatia and the political support it implies, will slow or stop the violence. Croats generally view recognition as a means to buy better weapons or to obtain military protection from the West. Fears About Recognition>

American diplomats, among others, said they opposed recognition because it could prompt the Yugoslav Army to begin a fresh offensive before Croatia imports new weapons, or could lead to new clashes in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the republic that shares borders with Croatia and Serbia.

Already Croats, Serbs and Muslims are arming themselves in Bosnia, where the ethnic segments of the population are separated village by village and street by street. [ Bosnia announced on Dec. 20 that it would seek independence, a step the armed Serb minority in the republic has declared it will not accept. ]

The Yugoslav Army, on paper, has the weapons to prevail in the battle for Croatia, but it has performed badly, both because of poor leadership and a lack of reliable infantry. The army's strategy has been to blast away at urban areas with long-range artillery and at times with fighter-bombers.

Croatian troops, fighting to protect their homeland, are generally seen as more motivated, although they lack air power, armor and long-range artillery to support frontal assaults against the dug-in army forces. Armed with small weapons and whatever heavier weapons they can capture or smuggle in despite a United Nations arms embargo, the Croats are primarily waging a guerrilla struggle in the fields and mountains, using mines, antitank weapons and small-arms fire for house-to-house fighting. They have been increasingly successful at shooting down army planes with Yugoslav-designed antiaircraft cannons.

The main issue is geography: The millions of Serbs living outside Serbia live in geographically disparate areas. To link them up in one nation, the army must take large swaths of territory within Croatia and retain control over the Bosnian lands in the middle. The Antecedents Nationalism Is Used For Political Ends

Yugoslavia was born in 1918 when the independent nation of Serbia was willingly joined by Croatia and Slovenia, both of which were previously part of the Austro-Hungarian empire.

The border between Serbia and Croatia had been the dividing line between East and West for centuries. Serbs lived under the Turkish Ottoman empire, practiced the Orthodox religion and wrote in Cyrillic while Croats were primarily Catholic and rendered their common language in the Roman alphabet.

Tensions building throughout the 1930's exploded after the German defeat of Yugoslavia in World War II. A Nazi-installed puppet state in Croatia built concentration camps in which Serbs, Jews and gypsies were killed. Civil war broke out, and massacre followed massacre on all sides. Hatred and distrust linger to this day.

Marshal Tito, the partisan leader, emerged as Yugoslavia's leader after the war and subdued nationalist feelings for the next three decades with a combination of adroit maneuvering and repression. Tito's death in 1980 left the country without a successor or system of government, and his former colleagues in the Communist Party began turning to nationalism in the late 1980's as means of winning power. Few Casualties in Slovenia

Until this year, Yugoslavia consisted of six republics, each of which had a constitutional right to secede, although procedures for the move have never been spelled out. Two republics, Croatia and Slovenia, unilaterally declared independence on June 25, beginning a breakdown in central government authority and leading to conflict.

The Slovenes immediately threw up international border crossings, prompting the Yugoslav National Army to intervene. With compact borders and almost no minorities, Slovenia prevailed in fighting that left fewer than 50 dead. Slovenia's desires for independence will almost certainly be met next month because of the republic's strong ties to the West and the peace that reigns within its borders.

Croatia's escape from Yugoslavia, though, has proved far more complicated. Many of the republic's 600,000 Serbs, about 12 percent of the population, have declared that they will not remain as a minority in an independent Croatia.

Fears among Serbs living outside Serbia were abetted by Serbia's President, Slobodan Milosevic, a former Communist who rode to power in the republic's first multiparty elections on a platform of Serbian pride and nationalism. The Croatian President, Franjo Tudjman, won a similarly nationalistic campaign in the spring of 1990 and did little after taking office to ease the Serbs' fears that they would soon lose their jobs and be harassed. Stockpiling Weapons

By the summer of 1990, the largely Serbian region south of Zagreb called Krajina began an insurgency against the new Croatian government. Serbs in Slavonia, the prosperous agricultural land in the east of Croatia, were less well organized. Still, each Serbian village there had barricades and local militias by April of this year.

Initially, the links between the Yugoslav Army and Serbian irregulars were covert. As spring turned to summer, the army became increasingly open its support of the Serbs, fighting side by side with them. The Serb irregulars stormed across the Danube in July, taking the first towns on the Croatian side of the river in a fierce battle. Some Croatian territory nearby fell without a shot being fired.

In fall, the Croats took a gamble. They barricaded the Yugoslav Army barracks on their territory and captured significant supplies of ammunition and some tanks when several surrendered. The Army Problems of Funds And Competency

Of the main actors in the Yugoslav conflict, the army has perhaps the most obscure intentions. It has at different times announced that its intent is to protect Serbs in Croatia, fight fascism, free comrades in barricaded barracks and preserve Yugoslavia.

Most observers believe that the army's true goal is to preserve its pensions and perks. About half of the federal budget went to the army before the fighting broke out, with disproportionate shares contributed by Slovenia and Croatia, the two richest republics.

Gen. Anton Tus, the former army officer who now leads the Croatian army, explained the motivation of the Yugoslav Army this way: "We have a state, if it hasn't been fully recognized, and now we are creating an army. Our enemy doesn't have a state, but they exist as an army trying to create a state to belong to." Relying on Irregular Troops

Before the war, the Yugoslav Army had 169,000 regular troops, of whom 70,000 were professional officers and 95,000 were conscripts. The fighting in Slovenia in the summer brought a wave of desertions by Croats and Slovenes. The army responded with the mobilization of Serbian reservists, an estimated 100,000 of whom evaded the draft. Those who were inducted seemed to have little stomach for battle; Western correspondents have seen army reservists refusing to leave their armored personnel carriers to engage the enemy. As a result, the army has been forced to rely on irregular troops who are enthusiastic about combat but undisciplined.

The army has shown little ability to coordinate its air power, armor and infantry and appears to have growing difficulties in maintaining its tanks and planes. Command and control appear to be weak. On one recent occasion, the army leadership acknowledged that the Croatian city of Dubrovnik was shelled by rogue local units acting without authority.

"They're having terrible manpower problems; no one wants to fight," said Milos Vasic, military writer for the Belgrade magazine Vreme. "Practically every day we have incidents of reserve troops coming back from the front on their own." Vukovar as a Symbol

The 86-day siege of the Croatian city of Vukovar near the Danube became a symbol of the army's incompetence. While the civilian population stayed below ground in shelters, the army poured in the artillery. The aim was to reduce casualties, but the effect was to create more hiding places for Croatian defenders, who inflicted heavy casualties in house-to-house fighting. General Tus said Vukovar fell on Nov. 17 only when the Croats decided that the amount of ammunition being used to defend the city outweighed its strategic value.

[ It is not clear exactly how the army will be paid in the coming year. Ante Markovic, the federal Prime Minister, finally resigned on Dec. 19 after rejecting a proposed budget that earmarked 81 percent of Government revenue for the military. Under the proposal, a looming deficit would be bridged by printing money. ] The Croats Rejecting Prospect Of Land for Peace

Political figures inside and outside the government of President Tudjman agree that his hold on power is safe only as long as he does not give up any of the territory taken by the Serbs and the army. These days, the Croats are eager to offer local Serbs complete political autonomy and other concessions within an independent Croatia. Mario Nobilo, a senior adviser to Mr. Tudjman, said talks about trading land for peace were out of the question.

"Too many people have died," Mr. Nobilo said. "No one in Croatia would survive politically if they did that."

Croatia began organizing its military force only this year. It lacks most of the essentials needed for effective fighting, including an experienced officer corps, air power, trained troops and effective communications.

A United Nations arms embargo has severely limited Croatian military options. Some Croatian politicians dream of buying aircraft or tanks once European nations accord diplomatic recognition. General Tus, the commander, has a wish list that is more modest: antiarmor and antiaircraft weapons. The Serbs A Nation Called 'Greater Serbia'

Most observers agree that the Serbs hold the key to the conflict's duration.

Mr. Milosevic faces competitors on the right. Vojislav Seselj, a former human rights advocate, heads a party with hopes for a "Greater Serbia," a nation with borders that would include most Serbs and an outlet to the sea.

Mr. Seselj's followers are doing a lot of the fighting and may demand a greater share of political power in return. European diplomats see in this the seeds of a possible civil war in Serbia. Croatian strategists acknowledge that their best chance for a quick end to the war would be major political unrest in Serbia.

Mr. Milosevic is facing other pressures. A trade embargo has led to long lines and severe shortages of gasoline, and the fevered printing of money to pay for the war has ignited hyperinflation. Many Belgrade residents grumble that the Serbs living outside the republic have dragged Serbia into an unwise conflict.

Nonetheless, there appear to be sufficient numbers of young men who hate Croats, or believe the government's claims about leading a crusade against resurgent fascism on its borders. 'Collective Psyche' of Serbs

Some observers with the European Community argue that the Serbian-dominated army could be deterred by one or two shows of military force. Mr. Zametica, the analyst in London, said such action was unrealistic.

"No one in the West understands the Serbs," he said. "They have in their collective psyche certain characteristics, such as defiance, and an attitude that 'if necessary we will take on the entire world.' "

Even if Mr. Milosevic eventually agrees to a peace treaty, it is not clear that the Serbs in the Krajina region and elsewhere will follow. Two Serbian regions in Croatia have already declared themselves independent republics. The Possibilities More Casualties, But Some Hope

Every day after the mist lifts, the Yugoslav Army looses an artillery barrage on the eastern Croatian city of Osijek. The shells fall on the hospital, the town square and apartments, typically killing a half-dozen people, usually civilians. The intent appears to drive civilians out of a city that was 66 percent Croatian before the war. Thousands have left, but many stay, living in shelters.

At night, small groups of Croatian fighters fan out from Osijek toward the army lines for hit-and-run attacks. About 100 miles east, the poorly trained troops of Croatia's army begin a frontal assault against heavily fortified positions south of Zagreb. They shoot at the enemy, and one another, taking heavy casualties but little territory.

The outlook is that these two forces will continue to pound each other. Most analysts expect the Croats to improve over time. Their goal of reclaiming the heavily fortified territory held by the army inevitably means fierce fighting and heavy casualties.

Mr. Vasic, the military writer, expressed the hope that the economic facts of life might finally hit home. With Serbia's economy in ruins, the Serbs in Croatia may soon decide that it is better to make peace and focus on restoring the tourist industry.

"This is the Balkans," he said. "But we cannot rule out the possibility of a rational approach."

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