WASHINGTON - In the aftermath of President Barack Obama's re-election victory - fueled by massive turnout among Latinos, African-Americans and other minorities - Texas Democrats began to dream that the nation's demographic tidal wave would eventually hit Texas.

San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro predicted that the reliably "red" Lone Star State is well on its way to "purple" swing state status.

The state's rising Democratic superstar isn't the only politician to speculate on the future political impact of the burgeoning Mexican-American, African-American and Asian-American population in Texas, which accounted for 88 percent of the state's 4.3 million population increase from 2000 to 2010.

"It's a math question," Republican former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush told New York magazine this summer. "Four years from now, Texas is going to be a so-called blue state.''

Everybody - from the Castro brothers to the Bush family - has a guess as to when Texas, which has not elected a Democratic statewide official in this century, will again become politically competitive.

So what's the answer?


That's three presidential elections away.

But there are many variables, and the pace of Democratic progress - or Republican resurgence - could change based on shifts in Latino turnout levels, continuing growth in some of Texas' heavily Republican suburbs and, most importantly, whether the GOP finds a way to win the support of a greater portion of the Hispanic vote.

"The demographic tides are going to influence Texas," said Cindy Rugeley, a political science professor at Texas Tech University. "Either a Republican will step up and take the lead in making the party more attractive to Hispanic voters or Texas will return to a two-party state."

Democratic 'vanguard'

The political transformation of Texas becomes evident through a county-by-county analysis of Texas voting behavior. Just 32 of the state's 254 counties have become more Democratic over the past three presidential elections, but those Democratic "vanguard" counties have shifted 618,558 more votes into the Democratic column since 2000.

Democratic gains have been most pronounced in the state's largest metropolitan areas, along the Mexican border and in sparsely populated areas of West Texas. Twenty-three of the 32 counties with improved Democratic performance are in South or West Texas, while seven others are clustered around Dallas, Houston and Austin.






"No group is genetically predisposed to vote for one party over the other," said Democratic consultant Harold Cook. "But Republicans seem to be doing all they can do to figure out who is gaining clout, then offending them."

If current demographic trends continue, Democrats would whittle about 5 ½ percentage points off the 15.8-point margin of victory won by Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in 2012 in every subsequent presidential cycle. That would transform Texas - the center of Republican resistance to Obama's agenda - into a competitive state at the presidential level by 2020 and a toss-up state four years later.

"I think 2020 is a reasonable time frame for Texas to become truly competitive, particularly if Republicans don't begin to cut into the Democratic advantage with Hispanic voters," said GOP consultant Matt Mackowiak.

Influencing factors

The Chronicle/Express-News analysis assumes similar rates of voter registration and turnout by each minority group, a spike in Mexican-American voter participation due to today's large number of school-age Latinos, similar voter-preference levels among all voting blocs and similar rates of growth in Republican-leaning suburbs.


1 If Latinos become more involved in the electoral system. Historically, Mexican-American citizens register and vote at rates lower than Anglo Texans. If the new wave of young Latinos participated at the same level as other ethnic and racial groups, Texas could become a toss-up state four years earlier.

1 If Latinos become even more Democratic. Romney managed to win just 27 percent of the Latino vote nationally. If future Republicans further alienate Hispanic voters and the Democratic vote rises to 80 percent or more, Texas could become competitive in four years and a toss-up within eight years.


1 If Anglos trend toward Democrats. It is close to impossible for rural white Texans, who cast more than 90 percent of their votes for Romney, to become any more Republican. If their children or grandchildren cast just 25 percent of their votes for Democrats - or if the high-tech economy brings more moderate white voters to the Austin and Dallas areas - Texas could become competitive sooner.

1 If Republican suburbs grow faster than the minority population. Over the past decade, minority population growth has largely offset GOP gains in suburban strongholds such as Collin, Denton and Brazoria counties. But if the economy rebounds and residential construction once again explodes in Texas' exurbs, Republicans could pad their margin and protect themselves from the demographic tidal wave.

Crossover appeal

Of course, the best chance for Democrats to win statewide in Texas is to find a candidate with crossover appeal to Anglo voters or an ability to win even more of the Mexican-American vote. Democratic strategists have speculated that potential future office-seekers such as Castro or Planned Parenthood CEO Cecile Richards, the daughter of former Texas Gov. Ann Richards, as well as Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton at the presidential level, could speed the state's transition to two-party status.

Likewise, Republicans could find a candidate with potent appeal to Texas Latinos. Possibilities include Jeb Bush or New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez in the 2016 presidential race. Jeb Bush's son George P. Bush, who on Thursday filed paperwork to seek state office in Texas in 2014, is seen as the leader of the new generation of Texas Latino conservatives.

"Texas Republicans may think of themselves as the last holdout for the tea party extremists, but Texas is becoming more diverse every day," said Democratic consultant Paul Begala, a Houston native. "In time it will look more like a Barack Obama state than a Rick Perry state."
