Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.11% (2099.9), D -0.02% (17863.4), N -0.31% (4702.9), CL1 -2.07% (45.35), Copper -2.91% (225.50), Gold -0.26% (1105.22) 10YrYld +0.01 (2.2341), DXY +0.04% (98.00), Vix -2.77% (15.08).

Headline indexes broadly flat but plenty of talking points under the hood. S&P +20bps from Euro close.  Most Short -70bps. Overall volumes -2% DoD and 4% above 20d ave. DXY holding gains; EUR 1.0879. Rates continue to move higher (10yr 2.24%), Banks lead today. KRE +1.6% / XLF +40bps. Commods generally lower; Oil tests week lows ($45.34), Copper approaching 52 week lows. XLE -90bps / XME -2.9% (SXPP -3.5%) On Earnings; RALPH LAUREN +15%, KATE SPADE +9%, VISTEON +4%, MAGNA -10%, TERADATA -14%. FACEBOOK +5% reported Daily Active users now above $1bn and incredibly 89% of these are mobile, Ad Revs 3% Beat and APRU is +24% YoY, Daily Video views up to 8bn, Instagram (my fav app, asandler79) still at early stages – I could keep going but have attached full thoughts. Also on today’s note we remain Sellers QUALCOMM -15%, woeful guidance; forget WHOLE FOODS -2%, stick with KROGER +20bps; SYMANTEC -10bps remains preferred play in IT Security; Stay Short PEARSON -4%, yet another comp cuts (HMHC -10%). Biotech led lower as CELGENE -5% earnings mixed, no raise to guidance; IBB -2% on earnings ENDO, BLUBIRD -22%. VALEANT -14% makes new low for move, cautious article in WSJ. SOX gives back 4 day rally (QCOM) but hopeful comments from MICROCHIP -2.2% last night, seeing early signs of inventory issue ending but after last year’s blow up would treat with caution; M&A chatter eased. IT Security weak following FIREEYE -23% tape bomb last night, call didn’t go well, new all time lows in the stock, only $2 off IPO price; PALO ALTO -4% (Earnings 11/23). Tomorrow we focus on NFP number, inline or better should support the Dec raise case (probability jumped from 29% to 56% since last FOMC).

OUTPERFORMERS: Builders +1.9%, Regional Banks +1.6%, Cons Apparel +1%, Refiners +90bps, Retail +80bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -3.7%, Drillers -3.4%, Materials -2.9%, Oil Services -2.4%, SOX -2.1%

COMMODS: Nat Gas +4.4%, Sugar +50bps, Ally +50bps, Gold -20bps, Silver -60bps, Corn -1.6%, WTI -2.4%, Copper -3.2%

ECO: Initial Jobless 276k, est 262k


CYBERARK +3.6% Q3 EPS/Revs Solid, raised Q4 EPS/Rev guidance
DISNEY -1.5% Q3 EPS 6c Beat, Revs a little light
NVIDIA +7% Good Beat and Raise
QORVO +13% Sees Q3 EPS/Revs at top end
SHAKE SHACK +5% Comps +17.1%, est 10.4%; Sees FY Revs at top end
SKYWORKS +5% already pre announced; Q1 guide ahead
TAKE-TWO +60bps Q2 EPS/Revs Beat, guides FY EPS higher, Revs inline


BUCKLE -40bps reports Oct comps (5.8%) vs (0.2%) est
CINEMARK +3% Q3 adj EBITDA $154.8M vs $151.4 est, revs $700.1M vs $685.3M est
COTY -5.8% Q1 $0.59, revs $1.11B vs $1.27B
CROCS -4.3% Q3 ($0.26) vs $0.10 est, revs $274.1M
KATE SPADE +9.4% Q3 EPS $0.06 vs $0.04 est, reaffirms fy guidance
L BRANDS -1.1% Oct comps +5% , reaffirms Q3 guidance
MOLSON COORS +30bps Q3 EPS $1.40, est $1.30. Revs inline
RALPH LAUREN +15% Q2 $2.13 vs $1.73 est, revs $1.97B vs $1.95 est
RR DONNELLEY +60bps Q3 $0.36 vs $0.35 est, revs $2.83B vs $2.87B est, guides FY revs $11.2-11.4B vs prior $11.4-11.6B and $11.44B est
SEAWORLD -6.2% Q3 $1.14 vs $1.18 est, revs $496.9M vs $508.5M est.
SPROUTS FARMERS MARKET +16% $0.21 vs $0.19 est, revs $903.1M vs $898.3M est, guides FY comps +5-5.5% vs prev 4-5%
WHOLE FOODS -2.2% Comps weak, cuts FY Rev guide

APACHE -30bps Q3 ($0.05) vs ($0.36) est, revs $1.5B vs $1.6B est
CENTERPOINT -1% Q3 $0.34 vs $0.29 est, guides fy $1.05-1.10 vs prior $1.00-1.10 and $1.05 est
GLOBAL PARTNERS -5.4% revs $2.49B vs $2.93 est, reaffirms fy guidance
HOLLYFRONTIER -80bps Q3 $1.82 vs $1.72 est, revs $3.59B vs $3.17B est
PDC ENERGY -4.7% Q3 $0.38 vs $0.46 est
RICE ENERGY -2.3% Q3 earnings beat, revenues miss, increases FY annual production guidance to 515-525 MMcfe/d vs prior 485 – 505 MMcfe/d

EVERCORE PARTNERS +3.5% 5.5M share secondary priced at $55/shr through Mizuho
ICAHN ENTERPRISES -1.1% Q3 ($3.40), revs $3.1B
KKR +2.2% raised to Outperform at Wells Fargo
STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST +2.8% Q3 core EPS $0.56 vs $0.52 est, guides $2.13-2.17 vs prior $2.05-2.25 and $2.14 est

CELGENE -5.1% Q3 EPS $1.23, est $1.22. Revs $2.33bn, est $2.40bn. FY guide inline.
ENDO INTERNATIONAL +3.6% Q3 $1.02 vs $1.00 est, revs $745.7M vs $737.6M, reaffirms fy guidance
INSYS THERAPEUTICS -4% Q3 $0.50 vs $0.25 est, CEO steps down
ISIS PHARMACEUTICALS +1.8% upgraded at Piper Jaffray
LANNETT -16% Q1 EPS/Revs ahead but losing key customers
PRESTIGE -2% Q2 EPS $0.60 vs $0.57 est, revs $206.1M vs $207.9M est, guides FY EPS $2.05-2.10 vs $2.09 est
RADIUS HEALTH +1.5% Q3 ($0.68) vs ($0.57) est
VWR CORP -2.4% Q3 inline, revs $1.10B vs $1.09B est, guides FY $1.42-1.50 vs 1.47 est,

AMETEK +50bps increases share repurchase authorization by an additional $350M
BOEING unch Korean Air finalizes order worth $4B
EMERSON -1% downgraded at Societe Generale
HUNTINGTON INGALLS +8% Q3 $2.29 vs $2.13 est, revs $1.8B vs $1.71 est
MAGNA INTERNATIONAL -10% Q3 EPS $1.13 vs $1.09 est, guides FY revs $31.3-32.6B vs $32.1 est
QUANTA SERVICES +4% Q3 EPS $0.23 vs guidance $0.22-0.24, guides FY $1.07-1.13 vs $1.17 est
SBA COMMUNICATIONS -7.4% downgraded at
TEEKAY -4.6% Q3 adj EPS $0.30 vs $0.36 est, revs $611.6M
VISTEON +4.2% Q3 revs $808M vs $753.3M est

AIR PRODUCTS -60bps materials technologies business spinoff to be named Versum Materials
AGRIUM +90bps Q3 $0.71 vs $0.67 est, revs $2.52B vs $2.88B est, guides FY $7.10-7.40 vs prior $7.00-7.5 and $7.08 est
RANDGOLD RESOURCES -3.8% Q3 EPS $0.45 vs $0.454 est

AMC NETWORKS +3% Q3 revs $632.2M vs $603.1M est
BROADRIDGE -2.7% Q1 adj EPS $0.33 vs $0.27 est, revs $595M vs $599M est,
CLEAR CHANNEL OUTDOOR -18% revs $696.3M vs $716.7M est
COMSCORE +4.3% Q3 $0.43 vs $0.40 est
EXPEDIA +2.3% to acquire HomeAway, upgraded at Oppenheimer
FACEBOOK +4.6% Q3 EPS/Revs Solid Beat. Daily Active Users 1.01bn, est 992m. MAUs 1.55bn, est 1.53bn; Mobile 1.39bn, est 1.36bn.
FIREYE -23% Sees FY Billings $780-800m, prev $840-850m, multiple downgrades
GANNETT +4.8% upgraded at Argus
GARTNER -4.4% Q3 $0.45 vs $0.42 est, revs $500.2M vs $509.2M est
GOGO +10% Q3 ($0.37) vs ($0.42) est, revs $126.4M vs $123.7M est, reaffirms fy rev guidance
HEWLETT PACKARD ENTERPRISE -2.8% initiated neutral at Sterne
HOMEAWAY +25% Expedia paying $3.9n in cash & stock (20% prem), multiple downgrades
HOUGHTON MIFFLIN -10% Sees FY Revs +3-6%, prev +9-12%. Billings 1-4% lower.
MICROCHIP -2.2% weak guide but starting to see signs of inventory issues ending
QUALCOMM -15% Sees Q1 EPS 80-90c, est $1.08. Sees Q1 Revs $5.2-6.0bn, est $5.74bn.
SYMANTEC -10bps Q2 EPS 44c, est 42c. Revs $1.5bn inline. $500m Buyback.
TERADATA -14% Q3 earnings inline, revs $606M vs $638.3M est
TIME -5.4% Q3 EPS $0.32 vs $0.27 est, revs $774M vs $769.3M est, guides FY revs (5%)-(6%) vs prior (3%)-(6%)
TIME WARNER -3.8% multiple downgrades

AES -9% Q3 EOS $0.39 vs $0.36 est, guides FY $1.18-1.25 vs prior $1.25-1.35 and $1.27 est
OGE ENERGY -3.3% Q3 EPS $0.90 vs $0.91 est, guides FY at low end of $1.76-1.89 vs $1.86 est.
TALEN ENERGY-7% Q3 earnings and revs beat, guides FY EBITDA $1.1B vs prior $935M-1085M and $990.3 est

Have a good evening.