How to Handicap a NCAA Basketball Game

The Basics of What You Need to do to Make a Smart Bet on College Game

In this article, we’re going to focus on the basics of NCAA Basketball handicapping. Other articles in this section will focus more specifically on the details of basketball handicapping, but before you can get down to those specifics, you have to have a sound overview of the process.

Handicapping is not magic and it is not rocket science or quantum physics. But it does involve number crunching, research and the ability to use critical thinking skills. This in not an emotional process and it is not about guesswork. With that in mind, let’s look at some of the steps involved in this process.


By history we mean how a team performed last season and what has happened to it over the off-season to improve, sustain or weaken it. Season previews can be very helpful in putting this information in perspective.


What sort of nonconference season do they have and how do they seem to be situated in the conference? Are they one of the top teams, an up and coming club or one that has lost some ground? How will this affect them in terms of the ease or difficulty of their season? Also, what teams in the conference will they play and not play? They may play certain clubs once and others twice, which could affect their performance.

Recent Performance

As you’re in the season, you want to analyze how a team is doing. Have they been able to run up scores against opponents? How have they done versus the spread when winning and/or losing? Have they played the club they’re about to meet recently and what changes have been made since that game?

For the game at hand, consider if the club has been on the road a lot or if they are going to enjoy home court advantage? Does their home court make a big difference?


You’ll need to analyze matchups position by position. Start with frontcourt matchups and try to determine which is the better inside shooting club, rebounding team and defensive squad. Then compare centers, small forwards and power forwards.

Compare the backcourt in terms of defense, shooting and passing. Once again compare positions—the point guard and shooting guard. Does one club have a major advantage in the backcourt over the other?

Finally, identify any players that are versatile in some way, playing inside-out, driving the ball inside and kicking it out, drawing a lot of fouls or blocking shots at will. You’ll also have to compare benches. Often the bench can be a huge difference maker in NCAA Basketball. Finally, compare experience on each team as clubs with a lot of experienced juniors and seniors can use that against younger clubs to their advantage.

Offensive and Defensive Stats

Individual player stats are important, as are team stats. Go through all of a team’s numbers carefully, including field goal percentage, foul shooting success, three-point percentages, defensive and offensive rebounding, steals, blocks and more.

Injuries and Suspensions

Are their any players who have recently been suspended, suffered an injury that will keep him out of the game or nursing an injury that may hamper his play in some way. These are, obviously, important in terms of a team’s ability to perform at peak efficiency.


In NCAA Basketball coaching is a huge component. Winning coaches are winning coaches for a reason. How good is the coach at getting the players to execute the game plan, at creating consistency and managing the clock and his personnel?

Your Goal

Your goal is to determine how each club will do in relationship to the point spread. This is not about deciding who will win; it’s about coming to a conclusion as to if the point spread will hold up. Once you’ve done your work, you’re ready to decide if you should make a bet and if you do how units you should risk.