Will rising food costs after Brexit really cause thousands of deaths?

Health | Analysis 28 January 2019
Supermarkets have warned that certain foods could be limited in the event of a no-deal Brexit

Kirsty O'Connor/PA Wire

There could be between 3000 and 23,000 extra deaths in the UK by 2030 because the cost of fruit and vegetables will rise so much after Brexit, warns a study that modelled the impact of various Brexit scenarios.

The claim comes amid growing alarm about the prospect of the UK leaving the European Union with no transitional deal for negotiating a permanent arrangement, leading to shortages of food and drugs as lorries queue for days. Leading supermarkets warned this week that a no-deal Brexit could leave shelves empty because they can’t stockpile fresh food.

But this would presumably be a temporary issue. The fruit and veg study, led by Christopher Millett of Imperial College London, is about the long-term impact of Brexit and how it will affect diets.


Reliant on imports

The UK imported 84 per cent of its fruit and 43 per cent of vegetables in 2017. This high reliance on imports will lead to price hikes in all five scenarios the team considered, from a free trade agreement with the EU to a no-deal Brexit.

Records of purchases show people buy less fruit and vegetables when they cost more. The team used this data to forecast the effect of the price rises on consumption, and therefore on health. Higher prices will lead to between 3000 and 12,000 extra deaths between 2021 and 2030 under a free trade deal, and 7000 to 23,000 deaths if there’s no deal, the study concludes.

“This is a look at an important but narrow part of how Brexit will impact the British people,” says Millett.

The team focused on fruit and vegetables because they are most important in terms of health, he says. Is it possible that Brexit will change people’s diets in other ways, such as eating less Danish bacon, that will be good for us? Maybe, but since the team did not attempt to model the overall changes to diet, we just don’t know.

The team’s warning has been greeted with scepticism by some Brexit supporters, with suggestions that people could simply grow their own fruit and vegetables as the British people supposedly did in the second world war.

Such comparisons ignore the fact that rationing was widespread during the war, and that the UK government at the time spent several years preparing the population for a limited diet – something the current government has not done – but they touch on a valid question: won’t farmers in the UK grow more fruit and vegetables to take advantage of higher prices, limiting any prices rises?

Perhaps, but Millett points out that many popular fruits like bananas cannot be grown commercially in the UK. The team did look at the effect of a 2 per cent increase in local produce each year. It made little difference to prices – and it is unlikely this could achieved, says Millett.

One reason is that the UK currently relies on 80,000 seasonal workers, mostly from the EU, to pick its fruit and vegetables. Prices won’t come down if farmers can’t hire enough workers or have to pay them more.

What’s more, most UK farmers earn far more from subsidies than from selling their produce. Most of those subsidies come from the EU as part of the Common Agricultural Policy, and the UK plans to phase them out post-Brexit. That has led to warnings that many farms will go bankrupt, especially if farmers face more trade barriers as well. So food production in the UK could fall rather than rise.

Will these findings change anything? In their paper, the team urge the UK government to consider the health implications of Brexit during negotiations. With a no-deal scenario looming, time is running out.

Journal reference: BMJ Open, DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-026966

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