
Posted byForests Precede Us, Deserts Follow23 days ago

Extended, Extreme Arctic Heat: "I think we are reaching the transition to both exponential climate change (on timescales of humans actually pay attention too) and the inability for the average scientist to properly communicate about it in any meaningful way."

The extended, extreme Arctic heatwave has a lot of scientists very worried but very few are completely honest about its terrifying implications. What happens in the Arctic affects the entire planet. On March 19th, meteorologist/geoscientist Nick Humphrey wrote:

I have to admit, I"m getting a bit nervous about just how extreme abrupt climate change is becoming. The destabilization we are witnessing is beginning to happen so rapidly already, I can literally think "it wasn't like this in the recent past". Today, Seattle, my hometown, had a record high of 79 all time record high for astronomical winter (winter solstice to spring equinox). That temperature is slightly above the monthly normal for July! It also broke the all time record high for astronomical winter of 76 F set...on Monday...which broke the all-time record high of 72 F set...on March 12th. I'm a child of 1990s and I still remember days in early July where there would be cool morning clouds and mild sunny afternoons. Occasional heatwaves with 90s F, but very rare. Low-70s in Seattle in MARCH seems totally alien to me. Near 80 F in mid-March? That's totally outrageous to me, like "are they sure they're talking about the same city I lived and grew up in?"

Same city, but maybe it moved south? Lol...People are going out and enjoying it and I'm like..."what do people think summer will be like??"

Watching multiple all-time records for a month or season fall in Seattle, in Britain, Australia roasting/burning/drowning, now watching my own region face something more akin to the mass destruction of a major hurricane is telling me 2018-2019 are "the" years we really are beginning to see climate change speed up so fast, it's beginning to merge with the timescales of extreme weather. The destabilized jet streams, the extreme heat, abnormal cold, rapid...really, violent swings between the two, the megadroughts, megafloods, destabilization of seasonality...there's so much happening, I realize the quiet periods are now something to cherish, because they are very very rapidly becoming too brief. We've suffered likely 2-3 billion dollars in damage in Nebraska alone from this catastrophe and we still face what will likely be a much more active severe storm season, which may feature both more flash flood events and...tornadoes. Then there's the potential for extreme heat this summer.

Exponential change really is like a steep wall looking into the future. No amount of data really helps one appreciate that sense of dread.

Yesterday, he wrote:

Soooo...yeah. This sh*t in the Arctic is looking quite scary. Given this is basically happening in the early melt season, which I cannot find a precedent for (especially as there's no end I can see in sight for this in the forecast data), it will contribute to accelerated reductions in sea ice, allowing for more warming of the Arctic Ocean earlier, aiding more ice melting...I get the sense from what's happening now, that these intense anomalies are here to stay. We may be watching the transition to the "temperate Arctic". Which of course, will mean the mass destruction of not only sea ice, but terrestrial permafrost and further hydrate destabilization.


PS: Relative to pre-industrial's around +1.5 C globally, +2.2 C in the Northern Hemisphere and likely around +7.5 C in the Arctic (the Arctic has warmed more anomalously than the Hemisphere and globe). No end to this in sight for the Arctic.

And what follows are the brutally honest thoughts from today by this same scientist who sees what's happening in the Arctic as a turning point in Earth's climate system...

Facebook post by meteorologist Nick Humphrey

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level 1

what exactly does a meaningful communication entail? scientists have been warning us about this shit for decades with ever increading desperation. the science has been meaningfully communicated. i personally in my neck of the woods have noticed the exponential changes beginning since 2012-13 after hurricane sandy. the problem is not the presentation its that the information hasnt been meaningfully accepted.

level 2
Forests Precede Us, Deserts FollowOriginal Poster19 points · 23 days ago
level 3

fair. the ipcc (and other government organizations) is fatally conservative and hopeful in its presentations to the public. that doesnt mean other scientists, like dr.sharakova or dahar jamail, have not presented information in more meaningful ways. im juss sayin i think the scientists are too hard on themselves, they deserve a rest. its governments, corporations and regular people who need to really digest and accept the info presented

level 4

it's simply not their job to market science to the public. they're doing the work, it's the public that needed to be doing something with the information. inaction is not the result of a failure to communicate.

level 5

Fair, but someone in power needs to stop being afraid to be the one saying “the sky is falling” and point out that it actually is falling.

And for the IPCC to be continually referencing how bad things will be in 2100 they give our short term society more mental space to kick the can down the road. The message hasn’t been “we’re all doomed,” it’s been “we will be doomed later.”

That said, my guess at this point is that everyone who matters knows that we’re doomed, and they’re downplaying to keep order as long as possible. Maybe so they escape safely, or maybe because we might as well enjoy the time we have left. I have no idea, but it’s looking more and more intentional by the minute.

level 2
7 points · 22 days ago

I think it has been communicated pretty loud and clear but the core problem is that the solutions required and the solutions financially, technologically and humanitarianly available do not overlap. There is no solution that doesn't require the entire rewrite of the global economic system and almost no one (human or corporation) with any real money wants that.

level 3

They didn't communicate it loud and clear at all

These scientists always act as if CC will hurt nature but have no real effects on humans at all. They never say "we gotta fix it or we're fucking dead, kid"

They never talk about why you can't rely on politicians to do the work and why people gotta change habits and be proactive. Scientists were for the most part useless. If all of them were turned science journalists then we'd have been way better off

level 2

what exactly does a meaningful communication entail?

it must sell?

level 1

Yes the quiet parts in between are so precious and fleeting now. I literally sighed with relief as the Australian summer drew to a close. You can almost see the habitable coastal strip shrink. Then my attention turns to the Arctic....earlier each year, far from waiting til about June to see what's happening, we get alarm bells mid winter there, and it just keeps going. We now lurch almost consecutively from extreme to extreme as the seasons turn, our fleeting interludes of respite will soon be gone.

level 2

Still waiting for it to properly end in WA. Bushfire season extended to May over here and cyclones up north. Winter is getting shorter and shorter.

We moved over 2 years ago from SA and every year people tell me the weather isn't normal with no realization of why.

level 3

No realization of why

Yes a very Australian thing to say I'm afraid. Last November I flew to WA and seeing that thin strip of green emerge from the hours of grey always gets me....and yes there were fires. I constantly have people ridicule climate change and moan about the bizarre weather in the same breath with seemingly no idea why things are changing.

level 1

He should do an AMA

level 2
Forests Precede Us, Deserts FollowOriginal Poster20 points · 23 days ago

Wow, he answered my questions brilliantly. I will work on getting it published and posted here.

level 3


level 3

Please do.

level 2
Forests Precede Us, Deserts FollowOriginal Poster18 points · 23 days ago

I have an online Q&A with him which should be really good if he follows through with it.

level 1
9 points · 23 days ago

Curious what's comical about Green New Deal? Guessing he considers it insufficient. Like peeing on a forest fire.

level 2

Well, the thing is, better do something than nothing, right? I mean, if you just refuse any action as being meaningless anyway, you're no better than a denier.

level 3
alien rapture4 points · 22 days ago

I can imagine plenty of green-flavoured initiatives which could be worse than doing nothing.

level 4


level 5
alien rapture5 points · 22 days ago

Well, pretty much any activity can end up on the wrong side of jevon's paradox and that seems to be the default. Geoengineering will likely have unintended effects and it's anyone's guess if it's worth it once we start it openly and at scale.

level 1
Part of The McLuvin' Network™9 points · 22 days ago

Doom and gloom, let's look at the positive side here:

Eh, I guess there's not really that much to be stoked about. At least I've got my boyish good looks, lotsa beer and a mind blown by psychedelics <3

level 2
Build it and they will come.7 points · 22 days ago

Let’s get drunk.

tips glass and spills red wine on my Vietnamese slave labored white t shirt

level 1

Humphrey or Murphy?

The arctic sea ice forum is animated about this year. To the rest of humanity, it wouldn't be news until it's a new record low for sea ice extent. Which ironically it is today:,2591.200.html?PHPSESSID=194a22e44633b356be0920ccb05442fd

Even if it's "news" the public won't be reacting until the shelves start falling off of Greenland and high tide goes up a few centimeters in a year. As big a deal as arctic ice is to people who come here, that's 100,000 people. The other 6 billion give or take a few million are just clueless as to the gravity of the situation.

At this point it's a race for the larger catastrophe to be crop failures or the water coming into the collective basement.


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