Saturday, 30 March 2019

Brexit, China and Nato

Externally, the biggest challenge facing the EU is the danger of losing the protection of America against Russia. Donald Trump sees China as America's main threat, which is obviously right, Iran as a major threat to American interests, which is obviously absurd, and (like George W. Bush and Hillary) Vladimir Putin as a man he can do business with. This is only true if Donald Trump sees things cold bloodedly in terms of narrow American self-interest, but it could achieve big results. Perhaps the end of the war in Syria is one of these. 

In any case, Great Britain (and Europe and the USA) should leave Russia and the regional powers to take care of the Middle East. We have no dog in that fight. 

Washington can continue to give money to Israel, if it wants to, and Britain and America can continue to take money from Saudi Arabia, but there is no need to get involved beyond that.

Instead the UK follows the USA and sides with the Sunnis in the Sunni - Shia struggle but takes the EU's side against Russia (although Germany swings both ways on Russia). It would therefore be in the EU's interests to cut the UK a good deal to preserve close relations, especially as there no longer seems any danger that other EU countries may leave the Union. 

Why did Theresa May not play this card? By threatening, for example, to leave Nato?

Because she is unimaginative, unintelligent and an instinctive internationalist.

In fact, leaving Nato would make a lot of good sense in principle for Britain. Leaving the Americans to meddle in the Middle East would make even more sense, especially as Muslims become a bigger and bigger proportion of the British population. Unnecessary wars are not only bad in principle and bad for the Middle East but bad for peace at home.

What happens after the Americans lose interest in paying for European defence? 

A Chinese-German rapprochement? 

How would that work in terms of America, Great Britain, Russia or Iran? At the moment China and Russia like Iran as a bulwark against Sunni Islamism which threatens them because they have Sunni populations. 

1 comment:

  1. In fact, leaving Nato would make a lot of good sense in principle for Britain.

    It would make enormous sense for Britain. But Britain would have to give up its fantasies of still being a great power. Britain won't do that.