End of ‘Trumpism’

Scott describes the decline of Trumpism, but I think it’s pretty much dead at this point with little no hope of revival unless things change dramatically, which I doubt they will. But this decline is not due to changing public sentiment as Scott shows, but rather due to structural changes within the Trump administration.

I define ‘Trumpism’ to be a period of maximum enthusiasm for and influence of Donald Trump. Trumpism began on the night of his victory, up until around mid-2017 when Trumpism peaked, and ending in late 2018 with the mid-terms. The end of Trumpsism does not mean Trump cannot be a good president or that he will not be reelected, but rather that he will resemble, policy-wise, more of a typical conservative politician than a uniquely ‘Trumpian’ one. This also means, unlike in 2016-2017, he will increasingly defer to GOP strategists among the ‘establishment’, than outsiders.

Trumpism died for a couple reasons:

1. The post-2017 decline of the alt-right, which mirrors the post-2017 rise of the IDW. Many of the social media influencers who in 2016-2017 helped Trump win and were among his biggest supporters, such as Milo and Gavin McInnes, have seen their platforms shrink due to de-funding, loss of social media accounts, and overall decline in popularity. A lot of young people are tiring of partisan politics and are turning to IDW-thinkers and centrism.

2. Stonewalling by Congress and courts

3. Inability to build wall and difficulty meeting campaign objectives, such as stricter immigration control; caving in on family separations; caving in on spending bills; ending Iran nuclear deal

4. Cabinet exits, betrayals, and reshuffling. Trump’s 2018 staff bears little semblance to anything even remotely resembling the dissident/alt-right and his 2017 cabinet. All of the original people are gone, having quit, been indicted, resigned, been fired, back-stabbed, etc. As Mike Cernovich astutely notes, working for Trump carries a high potential legal and career cost, so this means staff don’t stay long and Trump may not be getting the best possible candidates.

5. Permanent legal quagmire. Each case, individually, does not do much, but collectively they weigh on the administration by making it harder for Trump to do anything because his attention is preoccupied.

6. Increased censorship, de-monetization, and de-platforming by tech companies against the ‘right’. Since mid 2017, Silicon Valley tech companies have stepped-up their censorship efforts, due to Trump’s win but also in the aftermath Charlottesville. Trump needs to speak out about this more. His biggest supporters are being systematically silenced and cut off from revenue streams. And even people who are not even that right-wing, such as Sargon of Akkad, who lost his Patreon account recently for some stupid, arbitrary, politically-motivated “TOS violation”.

7. Trump giving too much influence to Ivanka and Jared Kushner, who are pushing the Trump agenda in a more moderate direction, and it reeks of nepotism and conflict of interest.

8. GOP losing the House in 2018 midterms. This will make it even harder to Trump to do anything.

However, it was not a good year for never-Trumpers either, due to loss of support. The Weekly Standard is shutting down and NRO is not as popular as it was a few years ago. However, online, has proven to be an exception. Ben Shapiro, despite opposing Trump vehemently, has seen his popularity surge in the past year, as part of rise of the IDW. The good news for Trump though is that, in spite of the above factors, his base remains as loyal as ever and his reelection odds are good.