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Syria's daring brinkmanship



    Al-Assad, right, presented the Saudi king with the Umayyad Order - the highest national honour medal in Syria - as a sign of much improved relations between their countries [EPA]





    For example, Syria saw no apparent conflict with its declared slogans of "Arab unity" and "Arab brotherhood" when it joined the US in its "war on terror" in 2003 and surrendered several Iraqi leaders who took refuge in its territories in the aftermath of the US invasion of Iraq.


    Emerging from isolation

    Turkey's role in bringing Syria to the negotiating table should not be underestimated.

    It was through Turkey - which is a US ally, Nato member and maintains diplomatic relations with Israel - that Syria managed to break its regional isolation, imposed by "moderate Arab states" as a punitive measure in the wake of the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri, the former Lebanese premier, and for its support for Hezbollah.

    Syria has persistently denied involvement in al-Hariri's death.

    Despite its talks with the Israelis, US envoys and attempts to seal intra-Arab differences, Syria maintained its diplomatic elasticity by continuing support for Hezbollah - its most important ally in the region.

    Working on two parallels, Syria cultivates the legitimacy it has earned through association with Hezbollah's resistance mantra. It also realises that its ties with the Shia Lebanese movement could be used as leverage in any future Middle East talks.



    In peace time, Hezbollah provides diplomatic and military leverage against Israel, which in turn strengthens Syria's position at any prospective negotiating table.

    In this sense, Hezbollah serves as Syria's first line of defence should Israel pursue military action, as it did in 2006.


    Bush's strategy

    It is no coincidence that Syria was considered the next stage of the Bush administration's redrawing of the Middle East map; Iraq, followed by Syria and then, possibly Iran.

    Immediately after the fall of Baghdad in April 2003, Washington considered implementing regime change in Damascus as part of the Bush administration's policy of pre-emption.

    Damascus observed with alarm as US officials alleged that Iraq's "nuclear material" was hidden on Syrian territory and the rhetoric against Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president, became more venomous.


    Realising that its survival was at stake, Syria - in tandem with Iran - supported the insurgency in Iraq despite US sabre-rattling.



    This provided Washington with an opportunity to force - militarily if need be - Syrian troops out of Lebanon and push for removing the Assad government.

    Outmanoeuvring Washington




    This was a crucial move for the Syrians, and in fact a master stroke. By heeding the US "ultimatum" in withdrawing their troops, the Syrian leadership was able to avoid the fate Saddam Hussein met when he invaded Kuwait in 1990 and refused to withdraw his forces until it was too late.



    Arab rapprochement

    The importance of King Abdullah's visit to Damascus should not be underplayed. In 2006, Washington's "moderate" allies - including Saudi Arabia - joined Western ranks in mounting concentrated pressure on the Syrians.

    Yet, four years later, international and regional conditions have changed in such a way that turned in Syria's advantage.

    After Israel failed to eliminate Hezbollah as a viable threat in its war in 2006 - and following "regime change" in Washington with the Obama administration in the White House - Syria was able transform the Saudi-backed Hariri tribunal into a side show that is more like a nuisance than a real threat.


    With this in mind, the Saudis, in reassessing their strategic interests in the region, realised that it is futile to continue alienating Syria which holds keys to Lebanon's stability, Palestinian reconciliation, Iraq's security and is an ally of the Saudi nemesis, Iran.

    Ali Younes is a Washington-based Middle East analyst.


    SOURCE: Al Jazeera


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