Monday, November 7, 2016

Hillary Clinton Set to Win the White House Tomorrow Night

This election is one of the most difficult presidential elections I have ever attempted to predict.  I don't think the outcome is in doubt - Hillary Clinton should emerge tomorrow night as victorious, a close but solid win.  But attempting to predict the outcome in individual states is difficult this time as there are so many states with polls well within the margin of error.

My map has Hillary Clinton with 323 electoral votes, Donald Trump with 215.  I expect the map to represent very closely the 2012 Obama-Romney outcome.   Differences are I predict that Hillary Clinton wins North Carolina.  On the other side,  I expect that Trump will win Iowa and Ohio.  The latter prediction I may regret.  Given the early voting in the state, I think the Buckeye state may offer an upset, albeit a slight one, by going for Clinton.  But right now though I'm sticking with Trump.

Florida is a tossup.  Trump has unusual popularity in the Sunshine State among Republicans.  But I think the Latino vote is going to play a major role there in pushing the state into the Democratic column again in 2012.

I think there is an outside chance Clinton takes Georgia and Arizona.  I can't go against history though.  I'm predicting Trump will eke out a victory in that state.

I am predicting Clinton takes New Hampshire by a few points and Nevada and Colorado by a few more.  As far as the "rust belt" states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, states that Trump counted on winning, well they won't be that close.  Trump never really had a chance in those states.

I would cite to three factors as sinking Trump's chances tomorrow:  1) Hillary Clinton's much superior organization; 2) Heavy Latino turnout for Clinton; and 3) Republicans who never got on the Trump train.  Regarding the latter, Trump needs about 92% of Republicans to support him.  I think it will be about 82% tomorrow.   The Democrats will be more united behind their nominee


True Republican said...

What about state level predictions?

Anonymous said...

Dazed by rigged polls, hari kari comes to Paul. Boat sailed last week.

Anonymous said...

Paul must have fainted - or drank himself into a stupor.

Trump took PA and is ahead in MI and AZ pending absentees.