Keeping the lid on nuclear arms:

Argentina and Brazil have renounced nuclear weapons. They are now devising a system of international inspection that could be a model for other countries still without the bomb

17 August 1991

In an historic accord last November, Argentina and Brazil agreed not
to produce nuclear weapons and pledged to open their secret nuclear sites
to mutual inspections. The accord, the first by two developing countries
that are not signatories to the 1970 nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, sets
a powerful precedent for other areas where the prospect of the spread of
nuclear weapons is amplifying local tensions. The agreement suggests that
non-NPT countries can move towards international safeguards without sacrificing
national pride or autonomy. Pakistan hailed the agreement as a potential
model for future negotiations with India, and Israel has shown interest
in Latin American arms-control techniques as a model for the Middle East.

But however good the intentions, formidable obstacles have still to
be overcome before the agreement is implemented. In particular, it is proving
difficult to establish an independent inspection system, one of the most
important steps in convincing the world of the two countries’ commitment
after decades of clandestine operations. Neither Argentina nor Brazil has
so far agreed to accept unconditionally verification on the scale required
by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is charged by the United
Nations with ensuring that nuclear material for civilian purposes is not
diverted to military uses. Next month the two countries will sit down with
the IAEA for the fifth round of aseries of negotiations to try to agree
on a foolproof verification method. IAEA officials are optimistic that both
countries will eventually accept thorough inspections of their nuclear facilities.

The governments of the two countries face considerable opposition from
their armed forces, which want to keep the military options open. Last November’s …

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