Here is the description of Droskar's Guiding Ring:

This gold ring is misshapen and uncomfortable to wear for long periods of time; inscribed on it is a crude symbol of a fire burning under an arch. Once per day, the wearer may use charm person. If Droskar is the wearer’s patron deity, any time the wearer crafts a magic item, she may choose to pay half of the item’s construction cost instead of the full cost. The wearer spends time working on the item normally, but at the time of completion there is a 50% chance that the item turns out nonmagical and worthless. For example, if creating a magic bracer that normally costs 1,000 gp to craft, the wearer may craft it for only 500 gp, but there is a 50% chance the wearer’s shortcuts and cheap materials result in a valueless, nonfunctional item.

The description of Divination:

Similar to augury but more powerful, a divination spell can provide you with a useful piece of advice in reply to a question concerning a specific goal, event, or activity that is to occur within 1 week. The advice granted by the spell can be as simple as a short phrase, or it might take the form of a cryptic rhyme or omen. If your party doesn't act on the information, the conditions may change so that the information is no longer useful. The base chance for a correct divination is 70% + 1% per caster level, to a maximum of 90%. If the die roll fails, you know the spell failed, unless specific magic yielding false information is at work.

As with augury, multiple divinations about the same topic by the same caster use the same dice result as the first divination spell and yield the same answer each time.

The description of Augury:

An augury can tell you whether a particular action will bring good or bad results for you in the immediate future.

The base chance for receiving a meaningful reply is 70% + 1% per caster level, to a maximum of 90%; this roll is made secretly. A question may be so straightforward that a successful result is automatic, or so vague as to have no chance of success. If the augury succeeds, you get one of four results:

  • Weal (if the action will probably bring good results).
  • Woe (for bad results).
  • Weal and woe (for both).
  • Nothing (for actions that don't have especially good or bad results).

If the spell fails, you get the “nothing” result. A cleric who gets the “nothing” result has no way to tell whether it was the consequence of a failed or successful augury.

The augury can see into the future only about half an hour, so anything that might happen after that does not affect the result. Thus, the result might not take into account the long-term consequences of a contemplated action. All auguries cast by the same person about the same topic use the same die result as the first casting.

Could one use Augury or Divination to predict the result of Droskar's Guiding Ring, allowing an almost 100% success rate with it?*

*Especially if you use something like Messenger of Fate to get a 100 percent success rate with your divination spells.

  • \$\begingroup\$ Doesn't affect the question as a whole, but you cannot benfit from the crafting portion of Droskar's Guiding Ring and Messenger of Fate at the same time. Whether or not another creature (with MoF) can Augury your crafting actions is up to GM interpretation. \$\endgroup\$ – Ifusaso Jan 30 '19 at 3:33
  • \$\begingroup\$ @Ifusaso technically, you can. You don't have to be the target of a divination, you can ask things about somebody else. Augury would probably be a bad idea, how there are other spells in that school. \$\endgroup\$ – ShadowKras Jan 31 '19 at 12:06
  • \$\begingroup\$ Was going off the line in Augury "good or bad results for you in the immediate future." \$\endgroup\$ – Ifusaso Jan 31 '19 at 13:36

Yes, depending on your GM, but only for Divination

Divination spells allow you to see into the future in some way, so the knowledge of the spell is based around whether the item creation will have had been successful or not.

For Augury, you can only see 30 minutes into the future, so there would be no point in casting it, as you would have the item almost created already.

For Divination, the spell would give you an answer about whether the item was created successfully or not (GM should determine early whether it is successful), but the DM might give you a cryptic answer. Depending on the answers the GM gives you will determine whether it is worth it.

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  • \$\begingroup\$ I tend to gravitate toward this answer because I kind of feel like this is the sort of thing divination spells are for. And the augury spell isn't cast when, like, before the caster starts creating the magic item but when he's nearly finished; I forget exactly what the rules are for stopping work forever on a magic item, but I think some of the raw materials may be recoverable. \$\endgroup\$ – Hey I Can Chan Jan 31 '19 at 14:30
  • \$\begingroup\$ @HeyICanChan Rules say that you must spend all the construction costs up front, and if you start working on another item the cost is created, so I don't think there's any way of recovering raw materials. So Augury would not work for this (who cares to pay for the result when it's basically done?), you would need Divination, and only for items costing max 14k (normally). Although I suppose you could use upgrade rules as well. \$\endgroup\$ – Kyle W Jan 31 '19 at 14:36
  • \$\begingroup\$ Well, that's not the first time my memory's failed me! In that case, it might be worth mentioning—explicitly and more than parenthetically—how pointless augury is in this case. \$\endgroup\$ – Hey I Can Chan Jan 31 '19 at 14:39
  • \$\begingroup\$ @HeyICanChan changed it up a bit \$\endgroup\$ – Kyle W Jan 31 '19 at 14:43
  • \$\begingroup\$ I would add that the GM may even roll the 50% failure chance (separately) to determine their answer. \$\endgroup\$ – Ifusaso Feb 12 '19 at 16:14

You cannot predict the result of dice rolls

The Dice are metagame objects, they don't exist within the game. When a game mechanic says you have 50% chance of succeeding at something, it is talking about it mechanically, not flavor-wise (though it will often be accompanied with the proper flavor). Whenever the game says you have 50% chance to succeed at something, that is resolved with a percentile (d%) dice roll, which is usually 2d10 or any other dice with results split 50/50 (1-3 and 4-6 for d6, for example).

Augury, if used to ask "Should I craft this magic item?" will most likely return a Nothing result, because the spell cannot tell what the result of the Dice you roll will be.

On the other hand, there are several divination abilities that grant bonuses to checks, or even allow you to reroll those checks. From card fortune telling (Harrow) to literally looking a few seconds into the future (Anticipate Peril, Threefold Sight, Glimpse of the Akashic, etc). Those spells fill the niche of predicting your fortune and allowing you a chance to change that future.

Note that not even the Foretell Failure spell could predict the result of that % roll.

Droskar may not approve that

Not only that, but being able to predict it would be against Droskar's dogmas:

He believes that sufficient toil leads to eventual success, and that those who fail simply weren't trying hard enough.

While his portfolio also includes Cheating, I don't think it's a good idea to cheat on a deity's granted ability, especially when he wants you to try until you succeed.

Alternatively, the GM may even answer with Weal, because you are acting in Droskar's good favor by willing to take a risk to succeed, which is exactly what he expects of his followers.

Divinations are the GM's territory

Along with Illusions, divination spells are admittedly completely in the GM's hands. So, you may get many different answers to your question, and they are all (somewhat) valid.

But keep in mind the scope of each spell. Augury will predict something in the next 30 minutes, so it couldn't predict the results of a work of 8 +hours (crafting a magical item). Divination, on the other hand, may sound like it could easily predict the result, right? Well, the spell will foresee a possible future that may happen within a week and give you some clue on how to proceed. Well, what if you tried to make a couple of items during this week? Which one would succeed? Assuming that you ask "Will I successfully create a magical wand?", the answer may vary depending on how many times you are actually going to try to make that wand, because if the answer is "yes", you are likely to try to make it, but if the answer is "no", you probably won't try to make it, entering a self-fulfilling prophecy. You succeed or failed because you used a spell to predict the future.

The Divination spell also may not be able to answer that question directly, as you are given hints on how to proceed about your question, not exactly a "yes/no" answer (that kind of answer is even discouraged by the GameMastery Guide). You could get an answer saying "You should stop gambling" or even "Droskar wants you to try until you succeed", or even "You may fail a few times, but you will eventually succeed".


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    \$\begingroup\$ Huh. I'm not sure I like the idea of divination spells being unable to predict random events, even if they are arbitrarily random events that are dictated by the game's mechanics. I feel like the GM should determine the random event then provide the result of the augury spell. For instance, a diviner should be able to win big at poker, right? \$\endgroup\$ – Hey I Can Chan Jan 31 '19 at 14:45
  • \$\begingroup\$ Yes, but divination and luck are different things. There are divination spells and abilities that will grant you bonuses. But augury and divination aren't set in stone, the future may change. Maybe you would have won if you werent so sure you were going to win and played a bit more carefully. \$\endgroup\$ – ShadowKras Jan 31 '19 at 15:32
  • \$\begingroup\$ @ShadowKras You could just as easily bet on a game of Roulette. "What is the result if I put all my money on red" - "Weal". \$\endgroup\$ – Kyle W Jan 31 '19 at 16:02
  • \$\begingroup\$ @KyleW Check the Gamemastery Guide and Ultimate Intrigue, it gives some useful information about how to handle very simple requests like that. Ultimatelly, pretty much everything you ask could be a "weal and woe" result. In your example, you sure may win the roulette, but also may attract animosity from others at the table, get expelled from the cassino/tavern, or even get attacked by the goons of the guy who lost to you. \$\endgroup\$ – ShadowKras Jan 31 '19 at 16:05
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    \$\begingroup\$ So Guide and Intrigue render the augury spell useless? Or, at least, make it into an excuse for the GM to screw with players foolish enough to waste their PCs' 2nd-level slots on it? (Seriously, if I had my PC cast augury before betting it all on black (and, Kyle, always bet on black!) and the result was weal and my PC lost and my PC didn't see the winner getting hauled off and murdered, like, right now, I'd be pretty ticked!) \$\endgroup\$ – Hey I Can Chan Jan 31 '19 at 16:14

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