Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Xavier, Crippled By Suspensions, Falls To Oral Roberts

Oral Roberts 64, #9 Xavier 42
Xavier played this game without three of their top four scorers, including superstar Tu Holloway, so nobody would have begrudged them an iffy game here. Even a loss against a tough Oral Roberts team wouldn't have been that bad. But to loss by 22 points? You don't get a pass for that. The three key suspensions were all guards, and so Xavier was very thin there and it showed. Dee Davis and Brad Redford, who both play only about 13 minutes per game on average, were the only two guards that played. It's why the team ended up with 11 assists while giving up 13 steals.

The poor guard play can be excused, but the front court was at full strength and needed to step up. Instead, their three starting front court players finished a combined 9-for-29 from the field, with only 21 rebounds, against a very undersized Oral Roberts front line. And that's why Xavier deserved to get dropped in the rankings for this loss. This isn't the same thing as Ohio State hanging in tough against Kansas without Jared Sullinger. Not at all.

In the long run, I don't think this loss will impact Xavier's Tournament seed too much. The Selection Committee will give you a pass for a bad loss or two if you collect enough good wins, and a loss to Oral Roberts probably won't end up being that bad of a loss anyway. Xavier already has wins over Purdue, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati and Georgia. They'll get a chance for a few more wins if they can pull things together. They head off to the Diamond Head Classic where they'll open on Thursday against Long Beach State, and then will play either Auburn or Hawaii on Friday. They'll get another game out there on Sunday, and also will play Gonzaga before starting Atlantic Ten play.

Oral Roberts now has wins over Xavier and Missouri State, along with only one bad loss (UT-San Antonio). They're not realistically in play for an at-large bid, but they are going to be seriously in play in an improved Summit League. Oakland has been my pick to win that conference all season, and they're still my pick, but Oral Roberts and South Dakota State are both beginning to state their own cases (and North Dakota State deserves mention as well). The next game for Oral Roberts will be Thursday against Texas Tech.

South Dakota State 92, Washington 73
Washington has been talented-but-inconsistent for several years now, but... 92 points given up to South Dakota State? And this final score was no fluke. South Dakota State grabbed a 21 point lead halfway through the first half, and led by double-digits the rest of the way. The star of this game was Nate Wolters, who had something of a breakout game with 34 points and 7 assists. Wolters is tenth in the nation with 21.5 points per game, but that doesn't mean much outside the Summit League until you do it against a big time team. He proved here that he's a legitimately elite player.

Washington's big problem was defense, as it's been for most of the season. They struggle to keep opponents out of the lane, and struggle to get out in their transition offense. They only forced five turnovers all game, and actually committed three more fouls and allowed ten more free throw attempts, despite the homecourt advantage. And the Huskies now, despite all the talent they have, have a very difficult path to make the NCAA Tournament. They'll play Cal State Northridge on Thursday, and also will play Seattle, but even with wins in both of those games they'll be 7-5 in non-conference games with no quality wins along with bad losses to South Dakota State and Nevada. As bad as the Pac-12 is, Washington will have to go at least 12-6 in conference play to even have a chance at an at-large bid. And realistically, they probably need to go 13-5.

South Dakota State is quietly 10-4 with only one really bad loss (North Dakota), and now a quality win. They are now a real contender in the Summit, and have actually pushed into the Top 100 in both the Sagarin PREDICTOR and Pomeroy ratings. Oakland was my preseason pick to win the Summit, and they're still my pick, but South Dakota State joins Oral Roberts and North Dakota State as real contenders to win the league. Their next game will be December 28th against IPFW. Their next game with real implications for the Summit League standings will be December 31st against Oakland.

Virginia 67, Oregon 54
Virginia isn't getting any attention nationally, but they keep knocking out solid win after solid win, and they're building a really nice resume. They're now 9-1 with wins over Michigan, Oregon and George Mason, along with one mediocre loss (TCU). Tony Bennett has these guys playing very sound defense. Because they lack the super-athletes of a team like Florida State, Alabama or Baylor, Virginia doesn't take a lot of chances of defense, and they don't force a lot of turnovers. Their 13.8 turnovers per game are only 177th best in the nation. But their defensive rebounding percentage (79.1%) is second best in the nation, and they're tenth in the nation in defensive eFG% against. That's just tremendous sound, fundamental defense.

Of course, you've got to score points to win games, and the biggest positive surprise offensively for Virginia is that Joe Harris has stepped up to become a complementary scorer to star Mike Scott. He had 15 points on 6-for-13 shooting here. As for Oregon, the one bright spot was Devoe Joseph (16 points on 7-for-12 shooting), the transfer from Minnesota. I'd like to see Dana Altman explain to me how an experienced, accomplished player like Joseph isn't starting for this team over a player like Johnathan Loyd. I know that Joseph had to miss the start of the season after his transfer, but in three games so far he's been a monster off the bench. He should be starting alongside Garrett Sim.

Oregon is now 6-3 with no particularly bad losses and a decent win against Nebraska. Considering how awful the Pac-12 has been, that's not too bad of a resume. They're looking like a middle-of-the-pack team in that conference. Their only potentially difficult game before starting Pac-12 play will be December 22nd against Stephen F Austin. Their first conference game will be December 29th at Washington State.

Virginia has a potential trap game coming up at Seattle. They also have a road game at LSU on January 2nd before starting ACC play on January 7th against Miami. If they can win both of those potentially difficult non-conference games, then a 9-7 ACC record will put them on the bubble, and a 10-6 record probably puts them into the Tournament.


Anonymous said...

What´s up Jeff. Do you still think that Ball State its better than Ohio to win the Mid ameican conference?

Jeff said...

I do think Ohio has played better than Ball State thus far. Ball State is still my pick for now for the reasons I stated preseason, but if Ball State doesn't start improving their play I will drop them.

Honestly Kent State has played better than Ball State has so far, too.