Business World, 6 June 2016


I must confess to an unabashed glee over Leni Robredo’s victory in the official tally. The Marcos camp was cackling and manufactured eggs would not be out of character with its ancestry. Manufactured medals and manufactured votes were the hallmarks of Ferdinand Marcos’ rule. As if on cue, three hooded stooges appeared in Congress to delay proceedings; they provided comedic relief. Finally, another widow beat back another Marcos.

Thanks to the Comelec and Chairman Bautista in particular, the electoral exercise went smoothly and the canvassing was upfront and in record time. The credible conduct of May election was of greater moment for democracy than the persona of the winner. Gone are the days when provincial counts were up for sale to the highest bidder. Our voting system finally found its digital sea legs. Democracy lives!

But the dark secret of democracy is that it can commit suicide by way of the ballot. Venezuelans voted as president Hugo Chavez, whose “enabling law” in 2010 allowed him to rule by decree. Death by the ballot. That 35% of the Filipinos decided to gamble on a Duterte “iron fist” approach is a legitimate exercise of their voting franchise. As casts of the die go, this one is arguably rational. For these 35%, a Duterte screw-up will hardly dent their already hard scrabble existence; a Duterte jackpot (translated a Lee Kuan Yew turnout), however, has an enormous upside. Decisiveness and dispatch in action moreover resonate well with business. But decisiveness and dispatch un-tempered by correct economic policies also resonate well with abysmal failures.

That is why iron-fist jackpots are, by definition, terribly rare. For every one Lee Kuan Yew, there is a swarm of iron-fist melt-downs: the still unfolding Chavez-Maduro economic collapse in Venezuela, the descent into economic abyss in Mugabe’s Zimbabwe, the Tonton Macoute reign of terror in Papa Doc Duvalier’s Haiti, the massive kleptocracy of Mobutu Sese Seko’s Uganda, the mass starvation and torture in the Il Sung’s North Korea and the killing fields for class enemies in Pol Pot’s in Cambodia, just to name a few. Drug menace as far as I know was not among the comadronas in these disasters. And then there was the homegrown dictator Marcos of the fake medals and unfake plunder that left the Philippine prostrate for decades. The downside risk of a Duterte is real but that will be a worry for the A, B, C folks.

If this sounds alarmist, it is intended so. Drugs, corruption and infrastructure are pale before a new menace. The downside risk of a Duterte spiked with his offer of four cabinet positions to the unreconstructed Maoist clique of Joma Sison. The latter’s avowed goal, as their post-election May 15, 2016 Communique states, is the total domination and the institution of a Maoist state. The tango with Duterte is just a timely and needed R & R on the road to total subjugation predicated on the collapse of the Philippine state and economy.

If it is naïve to believe that allowing moles of a sworn enemy of the state into the highest sanctum of the state decision and/or channeling state funds to the enemy was high treason, then I choose to be naive. If it is old-fashioned to think that only a pre-cursive complete disarmament of the NPA can exonerate such gesture of the charge of treachery, I choose to be old-fashioned. Better naïve and old-fashioned than in chains or dead. For hoping that the Maoists accede to true disarmament is triply naive; not when they now have a Trojan horse within the walls of their coveted prize. Would it then surprise anybody if this gesture revives the messiah complex among the men in uniform?

Virtual takeover can still be attained in abeyance of military takeover. Duterte needs to raise the investment rate to 25%-30% of GDP to grow the economy and provide jobs. With DSWD, DoLE, DENR, and DAR portfolios in their armpits, it takes very little to sap investor appetite. Conditional cash transfer can become a support fund and the National Anti-Poverty Commission can become a recruitment agency for the New Peoples’ Army. With nationalization and expropriation now mouthed from cabinet offices rather than the streets, domestic and foreign investors will find comfort elsewhere. To revive investment, the Maoist clique will next press their lala-land regime: “state ownership of the commanding heights of the economy.” Government will invest to take up the slack. If Duterte buys in, then, whether by intent or inadvertence, he shall have led the nation to the economic Dark Ages.

Little wonder that once Maoist and now roaring market economies, People’s Republic of China and Vietnam, have completely abandoned the CPP brain fag.

Where is Leni in all this? VP Leni is now a constitutional counterpoint to Pres. Duterte. With the military on tenterhooks, Duterte should know that indulging his Maoist fancies and buddies is a minefield. With or without a cabinet portfolio, but perhaps better without, VP Leni stands as an attractive rallying point in case of a Duterte mess-up. For mental mess-ups (buang in Duterte’s favorite Visayan put-down) are familiar comrades to squaring the circle*.

The fundamental question for Duterte going forward is thus: how do you square the Maoist aspiration of complete domination predicated on the collapse of the Philippine economy with the circle of rapid economic growth and job creation predicated on private investment?

*Squaring the circle: Constructing a square with the same area as a circle is not impossible. But certain paths (e.g., using a compass and straightedge) are dead ends and can mess up the mind.