Researchers who monitor algae blooms on Lake Erie face an interesting scenario this year.

Normally, farmers in the western basin have thousands of acres of corn and soybeans planted by now. Because of excessive rains from last fall through early summer, that’s not the case this year, so the farmers likely didn't fertilize their fields as much.

Some fertilizer, which contains phosphorus, eventually runs off into tributaries that feed the lake, sometimes causing harmful algae blooms. On a scale of 1 to 10, the bloom severity is expected to hit 7.5 this year. As of last week, the blooms extended from Maumee Bay north along the Michigan coast, as well as east along the Ohio coast to the Portage River.

So why are blooms expected to be intense this year?

“We believe the phosphorous making it into Lake Erie was slightly reduced because farmers weren't able to get out and apply fertilizer. Basically, we're showing the dissolved phosphorous is about 30% less than what we would predict," said Chris Winslow, who directs Ohio State University's Ohio Sea Grant College Program. "What that tells us is if we don't apply phosphorous on these fields, we can get a reduction in phosphorous. But what it also tells us is the phosphorous is also coming from other sources."

Those sources include phosphorous that was applied to fields years earlier and dislodged by heavy rains, he said. Previously, scientists told farmers that the soil would hold the phosphorous. Now, they know that's not the case.

"It's a great experiment we've gotten this year," Winslow said.

Heavy rains last fall prevented fields from getting prepared for the spring, when fields are normally planted. Standing water in many places left the soil too muddy to hold a crop.

"We were just as curious as everybody else how large this bloom was going to be. In the Lake Erie basin, only 15% manure application was applied in 2019," said Ty Higgins, a spokesman for the Ohio Farm Bureau, citing an Ohio State Extension poll of 10 commercial manure applicators in the western basin. "So the fact that we still have a large bloom despite the fact agriculture ... cut dramatically nutrient application, how does that factor in, and how does all that make sense? It just tells us that there is still so much more research to be done."

Rob Michaels, a senior attorney with the Environmental Law Policy Center, said the Clean Water Act requires the state to enforce total maximum daily phosphorus loads going into the lake to keep the lake healthy.

"It's Ohio's responsibility to enforce that and make sure that that total maximum daily load is achieved," he said.

The environmental advocacy group has a pending federal lawsuit against the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for not holding Ohio EPA accountable when it comes to the amount of phosphorous pollution in the western basin.

The EPA has filed a motion to dismiss the case, which is scheduled to be heard Sept. 23 by Judge James G. Carr of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Ohio. A decision will likely be rendered at a later date, Michaels said.

The state has nothing in place to require action by farmers to reduce phosphorus or to penalize violators. Farmers are encouraged to use best practices — such as not applying fertilizer before it rains and spreading an appropriate amount.

There's a move to reduce the phosphorus load by 40% by 2025, but progress is slow, Winslow said.

"You've got to remember, in the western basin, we're talking greater than 7 million acres that drain into that water body," he said. "To move the larger needle of how much nutrients is coming down the Maumee, it's going to take us some time to get (best) practices on the landscape."

However, Winslow said, research so far has indicated that, when farmers implement researchers' recommendations on fertilizer, they can see reductions in the phosphorous load.