Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Prediction-Gathering Post

Happy Election Day, everyone! Now that things are up and running, I'm putting up a post to gather people's election predictions.

I'm intending this site to be more a ranking of the punditocracy than a fantasy football league for all of us, so what I'm asking for are links to professional pundits. (But if you'd like to have your election predictions recorded for posterity in this thread, feel free to put them there!) I see that Brad Plumer's prediction-compiling post has Nate Silver, Sam Wang, Drew Linzer, Michael Barone, Ezra Klein, Larry Sabato, Josh Putnam, Jay Cost, Philip Klein, Ross Douthat, Jamelle Bouie, George Will, Ben Domenech, Markos Moulitsas, Karl Rove, James Pethokoukis, Dick Morris, Jim Cramer, and Dean Chambers in it. There's also a National Review prediction thread. Where else should I look? I'll try to use the last predictions people made before the first ballots of November 6 were cast.

As I suggested in the methodology post, I need people who have come up with an electoral map and preferably a popular vote margin as well. They should also be reasonably famous political prognosticators who are cited in print or televised media. A Facebook friend suggested that I rank P'Lod the All-Seeing, an alien quoted in the Weekly World News. But unfortunately, P'Lod didn't specify an electoral map.


  1. I am admittedly biased here, but I'm not sure how involved Moulitsas is in Daily Kos Elections' race ratings - that's under the aegis of my spouse, of course, the political director, but also his solid team of analysts (many of whom volunteer their time) - particularly Arjun and Jeff, as best I know. Certainly, the site wouldn't exist without Kos, and it bears his name, but I think the hard-core race ratings there bear the names, in-post, of the people who made them. Just wanted to make sure credit was given where due. ;)

  2. Larry Sabato should be included...

  3. Marc Ambinder's projections:


  4. Neil, please add Darryl of HorsesAss.org to your list of "pundits". Because he hasn't yet posted his final report (it's due this afternoon, before any polls close), that link goes to his FAQ.

    His penultimate post is probably very, very close to the final result. In terms of your battleground states, that report shows all except FL going to Obama. Though his Monte Carlo mean in that post says 309-229, by far his most frequent outcome is 303-235.

    (I don't know why I'm being called "Unknown" ... the name associated with this Google account is my nom de blog "N in Seattle")

    1. PS. In real life, Darryl is an anthropology professor at the University of Washington. He keeps his blogger/pundit stuff completely separate from his professional work.

  5. Elias Isquith, an up-and-comer from the League of Ordinary Gentlemen, has a prediction at his personal blog.