Wednesday, July 10, 2019

France June 2019

Resultado de imagem para Tesla Model 3 France
"Ma Tesla Model 3 est fantastique!"
 - a trendy phrase in France, right now

Tesla and Renault Shine

The French PEV passenger car market registered 5,847 registrations in June, up 25% YoY, and the plugin double-digit growth is even more significant, when we realize that the overall market remained stagnant (-2%).

This result placed the 2019 PEV share at 2.5%, with BEVs alone having 1.9% share

With BEVs (+42%) growing faster than PHEVs, all-electric cars represented 77% of all plugin sales last month, significantly above the 2019 average (73%), which means that BEVs are winning the upper hand over PHEVs.  

This good result from BEVs is reflected in the June Best Selling models, with the Renault Zoe scoring 1,845 units, a new Year Best, being an impressive performance, considering the heavily revised Zoe Neo is right around the corner, as are the EV versions of the Peugeot 208, among others, while the much hyped VW ID.3 is not that far away too…

Elsewhere, the Tesla Model 3 had another high tide, reaching another 1,000/month performance in June, with the 1,097 units almost allowing to beat the 1,153 units of March. Will the Sports Sedan score a new record in September?

The Nissan Leaf crawled back into the 3rd spot, beating the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV by just 3 units, 

Finally, the BMW i3 closed the Top 5, with 190 deliveries, with the German hot hatch career proving to be as rust-free over time as its carbon-fiber body.

Renault Zoe
Tesla Model 3
Nissan Leaf
Mit. Outlander PHEV
BMW i3

In a market known for its stability, the main news was the Hyundai Kona EV jumping to #9, thanks to 189 deliveries, a new personal best, while the Kia Niro PHEV registered 129 units, the nameplate best result in 18 months, despite the chronic battery constraints, the Korean models continue to impress, which makes you wonder how high would they be, if they had enough batteries...

The Jurassic Citroen C-Zero jumped 3 positions, to #15, while the Mercedes E300e/de twins keep on climbing steps, up again one position, to #16. 

This is a good sign for the just landed Mercedes EQC (6 registrations), although i would say that the success of the new electric Mercedes will depend more on the maker ability (willingness?) to get enough batteries, than anything else...

Last, but not the least, the Tesla Model S rejoined the Top 20, in…#20, thanks to 108 deliveries, the nameplate best result in 15 months, that added to the good result of the Model X (80 deliveries, new year best), meant that Tesla had its best month ever in France in June, and with the Mercedes E-Class PHEV just 63 units ahead, the Model S still has a shot at being the Best Selling Luxury Plugin car here.

Of course, it would help that both the S and X had further updates to keep them fresh, namely new 2170 cells (higher range, faster charging) and an interior refresh, and please, paleeeze...Get this last one right, providing it a truly exquisite and futuristic interior, not minimalistic/functional like in the Model 3, if one gets the Total Recall's Johnny Cab-like inspiration for the $40k midzise sedan, people buying six-figure vehicles demand something more...special. 

Or else, they would just go for the much cheaper Model 3, right?

End of rant.

In the brands ranking, Renault (31%, up 1%), continues in the leading position, while Tesla (13%, up 3%) is firm in the 2nd spot, with Kia, Nissan (both with 7%) and Volvo, BMW (6%) all running for the podium. 


  1. Maarten VinkhuyzenJuly 10, 2019


    Elon has stated many times Tesla does not do refreshes, only small incremental improvements.
    Like adding a second motor for all wheel drive.
    Or a performance option with a ludicrous mode.
    The hardly noticeable sensor suite with dedicated AI computer.
    Bio Weapon Defense HEPA filter on the airco.
    Intelligent pneumatic suspension or something like that.
    A redesigned sound system.
    Glass roof.
    New nose cone.
    Bigger 100kWh battery.
    Faster charging.
    More range with the Raven tweak.
    Most important, Musk's finest work: Fart Mode.
    And a few hundred other small improvements.

    I am sure that all the tweaks that were leaked the last months, and were mistaken for a new release of the Model S&X, will be implemented one by one, or just a few at once, without most people noticing.

    Tels does not do model year refreshes, just model week and sometimes model day releases.

    I keep begging for more service centers with a decent showroom and a few testdrive cars. Especially in Portugal's backyard, Italy's boot and central Europe. The Balkan and Eastern Europe can wait till next year.

    And as far as France is concerned, the Zoe keeps surprising. How is it doing in Germany and the UK. Have you seen the numbers??

    Are they increasing production to clear the backlog before they launch the new model? I think Renault would have to deliver the new model for the old price, if they switch production before the backlog is empty.

    1. Tesla: I think they should something to make the Model S/X competitive, as the growth potential is there, while the Model 3 is reaching maturity in Europe, already running head to head with the class best sellers, in the upper class, both the S/X are much below the class best sellers.

      Tesla in Portugal: After Lisbon and Porto, the 3rd store should be in the Algarve, as there is plenty of foreigner old Money (insert Golf resort-people stereotypes) to sustain a store there. Then maybe Coimbra, the Third largest city, although i think they are too hipster to go into Tesla, so maybe Braga, with all those small-industry owners possibly a good audience for the brand.

      Zoe: Numbers in Germany are also strong (>1000 units), so i think Renault won't have any problem in getting increased demand for the new Zoe, the only threat could be the Peugeot 208 EV, but i think there will be space for both.

    2. Maarten VinkhuyzenJuly 10, 2019

      With Portugal's backyard I was referring to the part of the Iberian Peninsula behind Portugal's border. :-)
      A joke from another comment thread.

      My father visited the Algarve a few times, considering it a place to spend the winters. It should be a good location.

    3. Tesla production rate for X and S is stable for a few years, and they do not plan to increase production capacity for S/X soon. To keep sales of S and X on same level they could...just do nothing for quite a while. M3 is cannibalising sales of S/X but on market growing 25-50% YoY this doesn't mean a lot. Especially if we would look on global map and see how many countries do not have any official Tesla stores/sales/superhargers yet. We do love Tesla for innovation pace, but until they would move S/X production to GF, or start it on GF3/4, they do not really need serious refresh to keep global sales stable...

    4. Maarten: Winter, early Spring is the best time to be at Algarve, not a lot of tourists, prices aren't inflated, and on the seaside, temperatures rarely drop below 10ºC.

      Sometimes weather is nice enough to go to the beach, i did some sun bathing in Algarve in early December and February.

  2. AnonymousJuly 10, 2019

    The Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance leads the market undoubtedly but in the period, Tesla managed to thrive more, although in the typical dysfunctional way of Tesla. It's going to be interesting to observe how the BMW Group fares against Kia-Hyundai in the remaider of the year and if Jaguar Land Rover has any chances to keep pace against Daimler.

    From the posted data, Q12019 standings are:

    1st Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 12352 units
    2nd Tesla with 3519 units
    3rd Kia-Hyundai with 2963 units
    4th BMW Group with 2491 units
    5th Volvo car with 1769 units

  3. Maarten,

    Tesla WILL refresh Model S/X in September, only they will not call it refresh. Sales have dropped from 100000 to 60000 units/year in average which is not sustainable, and Porsche is coming. Tesla had already eliminated third shift in January and is merging 2 production lines into 1 in order to make space for Model Y. I think they will shoot lower after refresh-sorry-interior-and-exterior-iterations of the S/X with only 1 line, maybe in the region of 80000 annual installed capacity.

    Regarding today's news of plans for increasing capacity in Fremont, there is only one logical answer: Tesla is pulling forward production of Model Y to Q4'19 or Q1'20, which is logical.

    Tesla can not grow sales in US bacause of the waning EV credit and will have difficulties reaching last year's M3 sales of 140000. Europe will land in the 60000-70000 territory and China less than 30000.
    They now have 6000-7000 units/week = 300000-350000 units/year of installed Model 3 capacity, but next year US will be flat at best, Europe will rise, and China will be fed by GF3.
    Only logical explanation is that they are probably preparing for early Model Y production.

    Mark my words.

    1. "Porsche coming" is mostly irrelevant. I have been sceptical for quite some time of the idea that the Taycan would be competing with the Model S -- and now that we have some pictures of actual space in the rear seats, it's actually way more obvious even than I suspected. It's nothing at all like the Model S, or even Model 3 for that matter: way more cramped than any regular sedan, more akin to a traditional (2+2 seater) Porsche sports car.

      It also doesn't compete with Model S on drag racing prowess. No doubt it will offer better track performance -- but in that regard, it actually competes more with Model 3 Performance, rather than Model S.

      The only type of buyer I can see where it would be in direct competition with Model S, is someone who just wants the most prestigious EV they can get (and somehow consider Porsche more prestigious than Tesla), regardless of form factor and specs. That's a niche market. It might hurt Tesla slightly, since it could swerve some buyers of the most profitable Model S Ludicrous -- but that hasn't represented the major portion of Model S sales in a long time...

      Regarding refreshes, sales of S/X already recovered quite a bit in Q2, and they only started delivering the motor and suspension upgrade. Of course we will see further upgrades down the road -- but don't expect them to come bundled as some sort of big refresh. It might not be enough to quite recover the previous 100,000 sales per year, considering that they are no longer the only Tesla Models available -- but I don't think Tesla is too worried about a slight decline there...

      No idea why you think they would have difficulties reaching last year's Model 3 US sales: they are almost half way there through the first half of the year, and it doesn't look like orders will be weaker in the second half...

      Either way, I doubt they are accelerating Model Y. It's not like the current timeline is delaying it on purpose -- they are just taking the time necessary to do it right. With battery capacity expansions reportedly on hold (presumably due to integration of Maxwell technology), I'd rather expect it to be delayed further, if anything...

    2. Antrik,

      I am not implying that there is no demand for the Model 3, only that I see that demand closer to 250000 - 270000 units this year, and that Tesla is expanding capacity in Fremont which is already at 300000-350000 units. So, there must be some factor to increase demand - the Model Y.

      Historically and looking at sales trends when other manufacturers introduce new product in the same price range, you can expect around 1/3 lowered sales of Model 3 (to 180000/year) when Tesla introduces Model Y. Model Y should contribute to another 180000-220000 sales for a total of 360000-400000 sales of Model 3/Y in 2020 (without China), plus 80000 of Model S/X (worldwide). Add to that the GF3, and 500000 sales per year will finally be within reach for Tesla in 2020!

      And at least at the GF1, Tesla is not battery constrained. At the beginning of this year, GH1 was at 24 GWh with plans to raise to 30-34 GWh by the end of this year. If Tesla can sell 400000 Model 3/Y produced in GF1 in 2020 and all of them are a long range variants (75 KWh), they will need 30 GWh per year, which implies that Tesla is not battery constrained at all, and that is why Panasonic made a 1 year moratorium on investments. S/X batteries are made in Japan. Tesla will even have excess capacity of 1-4 GWh to double or triple the sales of Powerpacks and Poverwalls.

      Anyhow, if Model Y starts mass production at the end of 2019, I expect Tesla to show net loss in Q2, Q3 and Q4, and to finally be profitable in each quarter in 2020 to finally bury the short thesis.

    3. First of all, keep in mind that the Shanghai factory is supposed to produce only SR+ models -- so China should continue contributing a smallish yet relevant bit to demand from Fremont.

      More generally, I really don't know where you get these pessimistic numbers. Q2 run rate is already good for 300,000 - 350,000 per year from Fremont. According to Tesla, orders keep improving -- and I have no reason to doubt them. Historically, sales of new Tesla models always kept rising for the first couple of years, before reaching a plateau. It looks like that plateau should come in *at worst* around the currently planned 500,000 per year (including Shanghai) -- quite possibly more.

      The Model Y shouldn't change that. The dip in Model S sales after Model X was introduced was way less than 1/3 -- and followed by a rebound to a plateau almost as high as the pre-Model X peak. I see no reason to doubt the Model 3 will follow a similar trajectory.

      The currently installed 35 GWh per year capacity in Nevada, once actual production nears that theoretical rate, should be barely enough for 500,000 Model 3 per year -- likely still leaving no room for storage... There is no way they can start Model Y production at any significant rate without further capacity expansions.

      It should be noted though that preparations for Model Y production are already underway within the original timeline -- so if the rumoured capacity expansions were somehow related to Model Y, that would actually *not* necessarily indicate any acceleration...

      As for profitability: while Musk was talking it up a lot in 2018, and people keep talking about it right now, his more recent statements suggest that he actually went back to his original stance that growth is more important than profitability at the current stage, and they should only aim for being roughly cash flow neutral for now... Which should actually calm investors, considering that Tesla's investment thesis has always been based on expectations of huge growth, not near-term profits. While sustained profitability would be nice in proving once and for all that producing BEVs is a viable business, it's not actually in the best interest of Tesla investors.

      (For the short sellers on the other hand, it doesn't really matter: they just alternate between "no profit" and "no growth" narratives as necessary... Trying to shut them up is a pointless game of whack-a-mole.)

    4. Antrik,

      I wonder what is your opinion for Model 3 and Model S/X deliveries in 2019 per region and total.

    5. For S/X, some 70,000 - 80,000 globally seem likely, going by current numbers -- though it could be more, if the recent (and possibly upcoming) improvements entice more people to upgrade...

      Can't say much about regions there -- except that I think US deliveries of S/X have been holding up better so far this year than international ones?...

      For Model 3, I think we should see H2 *at least* keeping up the Q2 running rate, which would mean some 280,000 globally for the year -- though strong orders going into H2 suggest even higher deliveries in H2, likely bringing it closer to 300,000. Any production from Shanghai would go on top of that -- though I don't really expect it to make much of a difference yet this year. (Likely less than 10,000 units.)

      In Europe, Q1 and Q2 were close to 20,000 each, and I expect the remaining quarters to *at least* match that level. Q3 might very well be higher, with significant numbers arriving in some markets for the fist time, and significant numbers of entry variants arriving for the first time in others. Q4 could also be very strong due to general seasonality, along with upcoming incentive changes in the Netherlands. (I've also seen claims of anecdotal evidence for orders further picking up in markets where it's already been available -- but I'm not sure how much trust to put into this...)

      US deliveries in Q3 will likely be below the ~45,000 of Q2, after the incentive step-down, and presumably exhaustion of SR+ backlog; but Q4 will likely pick up again, with another incentive change coming up, along with general seasonality. Canada should also remain strong throughout H2, with the recently introduced federal incentive.

      China is a wildcard. I *think* orders for imported variants might actually be better in H2, since the considerable subsidy cuts for Chinese-made EVs should somewhat level the playing field for Tesla; along with the opening of orders for the locally made variants creating clarity about prices and specs, so people no longer have a reason to delay orders... However, it's unclear in general what is happening with Tesla sales in China, with quite many ships arriving over the past months, but rather few actual deliveries according to official numbers -- and nobody seems to know why? So for global numbers, I'm assuming Chinese deliveries more or less will be a wash going forward.

  4. People love the front visibility on the Model 3 - I think Tesla will definitely remove the current cluster, rotate the center screen, and make the vents digitally controlled.

    Perhaps they'll put a screen or two or three into the steering wheel, containing all the information that used to be displayed on the cluster. Then you manage to get all the benefits of the minimal Model 3 interior, while also having all the benefits of the S and X cluster.

    They could also easily lose the physical side mirrors on the cars, making them virtual instead. That might free them up to widen the car by an inch or two, increasing storage space and giving people more space in the second and (in the X) third row seats.

    1. I like your suggestions, let's hope Tesla does too. :)

    2. Cameras instead of mirrors are pretty controversial. On one hand, they are very desirable (especially for EVs), since they reduce air drag quite considerably -- but on the other hand, some people at least consider them vastly inferior to real mirrors, because they don't provide depth perception...

  5. I for my part think traditional "premium" car interiors, with all these buttons, knobs and lights, look like cheap toys compared to the understated elegance of the Model 3 interior...

    I may be influenced by high-end audio equipment, where minimalist looks are generally found in expensive high quality equipment -- unlike flashy mainstream parts attempting to create an impression of high-tech with cheap tricks.

    I sincerely hope that the Model 3 starts a trend in premium car interiors to become more like high-end audio equipment...

    1. I understand the idea you want to convey but unfortunately the implementation is wrong, since it is the other way round: Tesla has Fisher-Price interiors (no real wood, no real noble metals or any metals) no real high perception of good materials and craftmanship (fabrics, skins, seams), so yeah, the plastics & colours on those Pioneer Hi-Fi systems have no chances against Naim. Same with Tesla interiors against Bentley, Rolls-Royce, even Mercedes-Benz E-class, provided it isn`t the base fleet specifications.

    2. Materials are an entirely different discussion. I can't really say much about that -- except that the various plastic buttons found even in premium car interiors generally tend to look cheapish to me... It's irrelevant to the discussion at hand though, since Tesla could change materials at any time, regardless of the minimalistic design approach.

      (Also, some people actually consider the carbon fibre option available for Model S/X more premium than "traditional" materials...)

  6. With Daimler relying on SKI for their cells -- not LG, like almost everyone else -- I guess there is some hope they might be less constrained on the battery front?...

    1. Let's hope so. I have sat in one this week, and the interior of the vehicle looked really nice, if a bit cramped.

      I also liked the exterior design, but the front design...ugh!...

  7. José, instead of Coimbra for the fourth show room/service center (after Algarve), I reather see Leiria. There is an huge number of Tesla cars in the region and a lot more to come...

    1. Yeah, it always intrigues me the number of fancy Teslas, Porsches, etc that run around that area.

      Is there a hidden gold mine in the Leiria whereabouts?