Global risk

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Inter-state cyber-attacks cripple large parts of the internet

Moderate probability, Low impact; Risk intensity =

September 20th 2019Introduction

Cyber-attacks are an increasingly favoured mode of conflict between states, with perpetrators being difficult to identify and incurring low costs for potentially high impact.


2018 the US blamed Russia for a cyber-attack on its energy grid (Russia denies any involvement). At a similar time there was a sustained attack on German government networks. Although these attacks have been contained so far, there is a risk that their frequency and severity will increase, to the extent that corporate and government networks could be brought down. Cyber-warfare covers a multitude of actors, both state-sponsored and criminal networks, as well as different techniques. Recent data breaches and cyber-attacks could well be part of wider efforts by state actors to develop the ability to cripple rival governments and economies, and include efforts to either damage physical infrastructure or gain access to sensitive information as a means to wield influence.


An escalation of tensions between major powers such as the US and China or Russia could lead to a sustained series of cyber-attacks on software that controls vital national infrastructure, which would have a significant effect on economic growth.