How to Trade Oil: Crude Forex Strategies & Tips 15

Why are gas prices on the rise again, I thought we were exporting oil now?
How to Trade Oil: Crude Forex Strategies & Tips 15

Three Causes of High Gas Prices

The three major causes of high gas prices are supply and demand, commodities traders, and the value of the dollar. These are also the determinants of oil prices.

Supply and Demand. Like most of the things you buy, supply and demand affect both gas and oil prices. When demand is greater than supply, prices rise. For example, U.S. shale oil producers increased the oil supply in 2014. Gas prices fell to their lowest levels in five years. But that shale oil boom reversed when low prices put many producers out of business.

Seasonal demand also affects oil and gas prices. You can expect them to rise every spring. Oil futures traders know the demand for gas rises in the summer as families go on vacation and hit the road. Regulations also require a shift to summer-grade gasoline, which is more expensive to produce. They start buying oil futures contracts in the spring in anticipation of that price rise.

Commodities Traders. Traders of commodities like gasoline, wheat, and gold, also cause high gas prices. They buy oil and gasoline at the commodities futures markets. Those markets allow companies to buy contracts of gasoline for future delivery at an agreed-upon price. But most traders have no intention of taking ownership. Instead, they plan to sell the contract for a profit.


The Value of the Dollar Declines. Gas and oil prices also rise when the value of the dollar declines. Oil contracts are all denominated in dollars. Oil prices rose between 2002 and early 2014 because the dollar lost 40% of its value during that time. Oil prices fell between late 2014 and 2016 in part because a strong dollar allowed the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to make more money while keeping supply constant.

When Else Prices Have Been High

Here's how different situations, from conflict on the world stage to engineering mishaps, affected the price of gasoline.

April 2011: Fears about unrest in Libya and Egypt sent oil prices up to $113 a barrel. In May 2011, as oil prices dropped, the price at the pump stayed high. Why? Commodities traders were concerned about refinery closures due to the Mississippi River floods.

February 2012: Concerns about a potential military action against Iran, by either Israel or even the United States, caused high oil prices. Second, some U.S. oil refineries were closing, according to an Environmental Impact Assessment report. Third, oil and gas prices tend to rise every spring, in anticipation of increased demand during the summer.

As a result, the prices for a gallon of gasoline hit the benchmark $3.50 by February 15, two weeks earlier than in 2011. By mid-March, the national average had jumped to $3.87 a gallon. That's because, two weeks earlier as well, the price of oil reached its benchmark of $100 a barrel. Oil went on to hit $109.77 per barrel by the end of February, before dropping slightly to $107.40 per barrel in mid-March.

August 2012: Prices were high as a result of Hurricane Isaac, which hit the U.S. Gulf Coast region on August 28, 2012. In anticipation of the Category 1 hurricane, refineries in the area shut down production. As a result, crude oil production lost 1.3 million barrels per day. This caused the average national price of gas to jump in one day, from $3.05 per gallon to $3.80 per gallon. Prices in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois rose even further, as the storm closed a pipeline that feeds the Midwest.

September 2012: Prices rose to an average high of $4.50 a gallon in California. That was because of a supply shortage from two causes. The first was a power outage at the ExxonMobil refinery in Torrance, California. A heat wave caused the power failure. The second was a shutdown of a major north-south oil pipeline. These came on top of East Coast refinery shutdowns due to regular seasonal maintenance.

March 2013: Iran started war games near the Strait of Hormuz early in 2013. Almost 20% of the world's oil flows through this narrow checkpoint bordering Iran and Oman. If Iran threatened to close the Strait, it would have raised the fear of a dramatic decline in oil supply. In anticipation of such a crisis, oil traders bid up the price, which reached $118.90 a barrel on February 8. Gas prices soon followed, rising to $3.85 a gallon by February 25. These rose again in August 2013 because oil prices hit a 15-month high that summer.
That spike was created by political unrest in Egypt.

April 2014: Prices rose in April 2014 because the price for domestic oil rose to $101 a barrel. The domestic oil price is benchmarked by the reference grade, West Texas Intermediate. Oil prices rose because new pipelines from the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub lowered inventories to the lowest level since November 2009. In addition, the price of imported oil, a grade called the North Sea Brent, rose to $110 per barrel. This was caused by political unrest in Ukraine, Nigeria, and Iraq. The EIA expected average national prices of gasoline to remain at $3.60 a gallon until May.

July 2015: In California, the price at the pump increased to almost $4 a gallon in July 2015. Midwest refinery problems sent California's oil elsewhere. Since it doesn't have major pipelines from other regions, California had to wait for tankers with imported oil to arrive. A similar issue happened in 2012. It was just a temporary regional problem.

August 2015: Gas prices rose from an average of $2.58 a gallon to $2.62 a gallon. This spike was due to an outage at BP's Whiting refinery in Indiana, making prices in the Midwest higher than average.

November 2016: Gas prices rose when OPEC cut production. Members agreed to reduce supply by 1.2 million barrels per day in January 2017. In response, traders bid oil prices to $51 a barrel in December 2016. That was double the 13-year low of $26.55 a barrel in January 2016. Gas prices rose for 14 consecutive days after the meeting. The national average of $2.21 per gallon was up 20 cents compared to the same time period the previous year.

August 2017: Average gas prices rose from $2.35 a gallon to $2.49 a gallon. Hurricane Harvey wiped out 5% of the nation's oil and gas production. The Department of Energy released 500,000 barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. By September 5, gas prices had returned to normal.

November 2017: OPEC agreed to keep production cuts through 2018. At a meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing nations in December of 2018, they again cut production. On January 15, 2019, the EIA released its forecast for two major crude oil benchmarks, Brent and WTI. The agency predicts that Brent will average $60.52 per barrel in 2019 and $64.76 in 2020, while the WTI will average $54.19 and $60.76.

May 2018: Global oil prices reached $80 per barrel following the U.S. decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear agreement and reinstate sanctions. Production in Iran dropped through the end of 2018. In addition, Libya and Venezuela faced limited production. Gas prices rose to $2.85 a gallon.

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Who or what controls or determines the Forex chart movements in real-time?
Forex analysis is used by retail forex day traders to determine buy or sell decisions on currency pairs. It can be technical in nature, using resources such as charting tools. It can also be fundamental in nature, using economic indicators and/or news-based events.

Types of Forex Market Analysis

Analysis can seem like an ambiguous concept to a new forex trader. But it actually falls into three basic types.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is often used to analyze changes in the forex market by monitoring figures, such as interest rates, unemployment rates, gross domestic product (GDP), and other types of economic data that come out of countries. For example, a trader conducting a fundamental analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair would find information on the interest rates in the Eurozone more useful than those in the U.S. Those traders would also want to be on top of any significant news releases coming out of each Eurozone country to gauge the relation to the health of their economies.

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis comes in the form of both manual and automated systems. A manual system typically means a trader is analyzing technical indicators and interpreting that data into a buy or sell decision. An automated trading analysis means that the trader is "teaching" the software to look for certain signals and interpret them into executing buy or sell decisions. Where automated analysis could have an advantage over its manual counterpart is that it is intended to take the behavioral economics out of trading decisions. Forex systems use past price movements to determine where a given currency may be headed.

Weekend Analysis

There are two basic reasons for doing a weekend analysis. The first reason is that you want to establish a "big picture" view of a particular market in which you are interested. Since the markets are closed and not in dynamic flux over the weekend, you don't need to react to situations as they are unfolding, but can survey the landscape, so to speak.
Secondly, the weekend analysis will help you to set up your trading plans for the coming week, and establish the necessary mindset. Weekend analysis is akin to an architect preparing a blueprint to construct a building to ensure a smoother execution. Tempted to trade without a plan? Bad idea: Shooting from the hip can leave a hole in your pocket.

Applying Forex Market Analysis

It's important to think critically about the tenets of forex market analysis. Here is a four-step outline.

1. Understand the Drivers

The art of successful trading is partly due to an understanding of the current relationships between markets and the reasons that these relationships exist. It is important to get a sense of causation, remembering that these relationships can and do change over time.

For example, a stock market recovery could be explained by investors who are anticipating an economic recovery. These investors believe that companies will have improved earnings and, therefore, greater valuations in the future—and so it is a good time to buy. However, speculation, based on a flood of liquidity, could be fueling momentum and good old greed is pushing prices higher until larger players are on board so that the selling can begin.

Therefore the first questions to ask are: Why are these things happening? What are the drivers behind the market actions?

2. Chart the Indexes

It is helpful for a trader to chart the important indexes for each market on a longer time frame. This exercise can help a trader to determine relationships between markets and whether a movement in one market is inverse or in concert with the other.

For example, in 2009, gold was being driven to record highs. Was this move in response to the perception that paper money was decreasing in value so rapidly that there was a need to return to the hard metal or was this the result of cheap dollars fueling a commodities boom? The answer is that it could have been both, or as we discussed above, market movements driven by speculation.

3. Look for a Consensus in Other Markets

We can gain a perspective of whether or not the markets are reaching a turning point consensus by charting other instruments on the same weekly or monthly basis. From there, we can take advantage of the consensus to enter a trade in an instrument that will be affected by the turn. For example, if the USD/JPY currency pair indicates an oversold position and that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could intervene to weaken the yen, Japanese exports could be affected. However, a Japanese recovery is likely to be impaired without any weakening of the yen.

4. Time the Trades

There is a much higher chance of a successful trade if one can find turning points on the longer timeframes, then switch down to a shorter time period to fine-tune an entry. The first trade can be at the exact Fibonacci level or double bottom as indicated on the longer term chart, and if this fails then a second opportunity will often occur on a pullback or test of the support level.

Patience, discipline, and preparation will set you apart from traders who simply trade on the fly without any preparation or analysis of multiple forex indicators.

Acquiring Forex Trading Systems and Strategies

A day trader's currency trading system may be manually applied, or the trader may make use of automated forex trading strategies that incorporate technical and fundamental analysis. These are available for free, for a fee or can be developed by more tech-savvy traders.

Both automated technical analysis and manual trading strategies are available for purchase through the internet. However, it is important to note that there is no such thing as the "holy grail" of trading systems in terms of success. If the system was a fail-proof money maker, then the seller would not want to share it. This is evidenced in how big financial firms keep their "black box" trading programs under lock and key.

The Bottom Line

There is no "best" method of analysis for forex trading between technical and fundamental analysis. The most viable option for traders is dependent on their time frame and access to information. For a short-term trader with only delayed information to economic data, but real-time access to quotes, technical analysis may be the preferred method. Alternatively, traders that have access to up-to-the-minute news reports and economic data may prefer fundamental analysis. In either case, it does not hurt to conduct a weekend analysis when the markets are not in a constant state of fluctuation.

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Is the binary concept illegal in direct selling in India?

 A binary plan is an organizational structure used in multi-level marketing (MLM) organizations. In this structure, new members are introduced into a system with a tree-like structure where each “node” or new member of the organization has a left and right sub-tree. Binary plans began to be introduced by MLM companies in the late 1980s and became one of the four most common organizational structures by the early 2000s.

In each sub-tree of a binary plan, there is the outside (power) leg and the inside (profit) leg. Under the power leg, new distributors are always placed underneath their recruiter, typically in the next available node when the recruiter does not have any direct leaf nodes left. This contrasts with the profit leg which is typically filled with members who are directly sponsored or enrolled by their immediate ancestor.

Another element of a binary plan is that it makes each member only responsible for recruiting and sponsoring two others to join the plan,which can potentially lead to rapid expansion, with potentially unlimited members. However, if a recruiter successfully recruits more than two people, they are added to the next available node in the power leg. This allows for the profits from gaining a new member to be shared between all ancestors in the power leg, regardless of who recruited them, in a process known as spillover.

A binary plan is a multilevel marketing compensation plan which allows distributors to have only two front-line distributors. If a distributor sponsors more than two distributors, the excess are placed at levels below the sponsoring distributor’s front-line. This “spillover” is one of the most attractive features to new distributors since they need only sponsor two distributors to participate in the compensation plan. The primary limitation is that distributors must “balance” their two downline legs to receive commissions. Balancing legs typically requires that the number of sales from one downline leg constitute no more  than a specified percentage of the distributor’s total sales.

The legal Framework Governing Binary Compensation plans

Amid the confusion and concern over the legality of binary plans, many people have lost sight of the fact that binary plans operate under the same laws that govern other multilevel compensation plans. There is no law stating that operation of a binary compensation plan constitutes a consumer fraud, or a company using a binary plan is a pyramid. Thus, so long as the implementation of a binary plan complies with the laws governing the operation of multilevel business, it will be legal. However, because of their structure, binary plans have unique challenges to implementing their programs within that legal framework. 

Four principal areas of law governing the multilevel marketing industry are: 
1) anti-pyramid laws; 2) business opportunity laws; 3) securities laws; and 4) lottery laws. A comprehensive discussion of each of these areas of law is properly the subject matter of its own article. However, a brief overview will assist us in examining which aspects of a binary plan present the greatest risk of running into legal problems.
1. Anti-Pyramid Laws

Pyramids are illegal in every state as well as under federal law. It would be convenient if these laws were uniform and cohesive; unfortunately, the industry is not so lucky. The application and enforcement of the laws varies from state to state, so the best we can do in the limited space of this article is generalize about what actions will cause a company to violate pyramid laws.The fundamental question that must be asked in every pyramid analysis is “What must a distributor do to earn a commission?” If a company pays its distributors based on the recruitment of other distributors (headhunting) rather than for legitimate sales to end consumers, it is a pyramid. This rule appears straightforward, but its application can be difficult because most pyramid operators are not so foolish as to blatantly pay a commission based on recruitment of other participants. Rather, they typically disguise the program as a legitimate multilevel marketing business by offering a product or service that the distributors can sell.
2) Business Opportunity Laws

The Federal Trade Commission and many of the states regulate the offering of business opportunities. Although the F.T.C. and state definitions of a business opportunity differ, they share a common goal of ensuring that persons who invest significant sums of money in a business opportunity have the benefit of full disclosure of information surrounding the opportunity so the investor can evaluate potential risks. Therefore, if classified as a business opportunity, the promoter must make detailed disclosures about the program, its finances, the history of the business, the personal history of the
promoters, the identities of other distributors, and other detailed information. In some states this information must simply be filed with the state, whereas other states require the promoter to provide each prospective distributor with a copy of the disclosure statement ten days before the distributor can be enrolled in the program. In addition, some states require the promoter to secure a surety bond before doing business in the state. These onerous requirements will suffocate any multilevel marketing opportunity.

3) Securities Laws 

Multilevel marketing programs are often attacked as offering a type of security known as an “investment contract.” These securities are subject to the registration and disclosure requirements of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as well as a number of similar state securities laws. Selling an unregistered investment contract security is a serious issue for multilevel companies, for there are significant criminal and civil penalties that can be imposed.

Neither the Securities Act of 1933 nor the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934 define an investment contract. Rather, the definition has been supplied by a series of United States Supreme Court and Circuit Court of Appeals decisions. These decisions have established a three part test to determine if an investment contract exists. These elements include: 1) an investment of money; 2) in a common enterprise; and 3) the investor is lead to anticipate profits primarily from the efforts of the promoter or some third party. Of these three elements, courts and regulators focus most keenly on the third
element. While this is not a technically correct application of the law, you are probably getting the idea by now that in the real world, the law is not always applied in a technically correct fashion, particularly at the administrative investigation stage.

4) Lottery Laws

Lottery issues always follow on the heels of securities issues. A lottery exists when: 1) an individual pays consideration (i.e., money); 2) to receive a prize; and 3) the prize is awarded based on the element of chance rather than on the skill or effort of the participant. In a multilevel marketing analysis, regulators will argue an enrollment fee or mandatory product purchase satisfies the first element of the test, and that the “prize” is the commissions from downline purchases. They will further argue the element of chance (luck) exists if a distributor’s downline can be built with little or no effort on her part. Because binary plans place a heavy emphasis on the spillover effect of their
programs, and because they have been promoted by companies and distributors as “simply get your two and you’re done,” the element of chance can play a significant role in the success of distributors. If a distributor need only get two enrollees, law enforcement officials will argue they must be relying heavily on luck that a productive downline will be developed below them because the distributors are putting forth only minimal effort to personally contribute to its success.

What are financial vocabulary words to get rich?
  The key to becoming rich is twofold: You have to earn more money and spend less than you earn.

How to get rich

Define ‘rich’

When people talk about getting rich, they don’t necessarily mean having so much money that they can set some on fire. They may just mean being financially comfortable.
You’ll have to settle on your own definition, but this is a good start: Many people feel comfortable when they no longer have to think so much about money — both where it’s coming from, and where it’s going.

It’s worth also shooting for the kind of wealth that lets you prop up the next generation by footing your kids’ college bills, seeding educational savings accounts for grandkids or leaving an inheritance.

Maximize your income

It almost goes without saying: If you want to get rich, you need to earn more money.
There are various ways to do that, and you should expect most to take a while. (There’s a reason the words “get rich quick” are frequently followed by “scheme.”)
A few suggestions: Ask for a raise when you believe you’ve earned one. Tap your network to find out if changing companies might lead to greener financial pastures. Take on a side gig — these days, the possibilities are nearly endless: You could rent out an extra room, rideshare, walk dogs, run errands or mystery shop.

Financial vocabulary 3 words to get rich:-

A)Asset, B)Liability,  C)Cash Flow  





Cash Flow :-

a cash flow is determined by its time t, nominal amount N, currency CCY and account A; symbolically CF = CF(t,N,CCY,A).

it is however popular to use cash flow in a less specified sense describing (symbolic) payments into or out of a business, project, or financial product.

Cash flows are narrowly interconnected with the concepts of value, interest rate and liquidity. A cash flow that shall happen on a future day tN can be transformed into a cash flow of the same value in t0.

How should I make money through online in 2019?

Forex Market Ways To Earn Money – Forex Online Trading

There are 4 features that Forex is one of the most attractive markets for speculators. Speculators are all who buy or sell currencies with the purpose of obtaining a profit:

1. Its large size (Forex is the largest financial market in the world)
2. Highly liquid, transactions, ie, buying and selling currencies are done simultaneously. If someone is willing to sell a currency pair, there is always someone willing to buy.
3.Large volume (volume of transactions of $ 3 trillion a day), and
4. Its high volatility (i.e., the price of currency pairs change every time.)

The topic that I will talk deals today specifically with companies that manage funds Forex, i.e., receive money from their investors or clients to invest that money in forex trading. In return, they offer excellent profit on their investment.
Before fully addressing this issue requires a quick introduction to what is the Forex. And suggest you share this information with all your friends and acquaintances because this way you help prevent the number of cheated by these companies to increase.
Quick Introduction to Forex.
Forex Exchange Forex is derived from and means “Foreign Currency Exchange Market,” it is important to understand that Forex is not a trademark, only is the name given to the transactions of buying and selling currencies from one country to another.

These features give speculators the opportunity to participate in this market and profit daily.
Short in Forex, there is great potential for profit, which is why we can easily be duped by companies that allegedly managed forex funds that pay excellent returns on their investment.
Mechanisms used by fraudsters to motivate clients to invest with them.

Let’s begin:

1. To introduce its proposal for a “business,” they focus on the potential for fabulous profits forex. In this way, potential customers are impressed with the magnitude of Forex, and of course, they have found the great opportunity of a lifetime to change your financial situation. Are tempted by the ease of making money and eventually give money to these companies for managing them and making them work den. Why does it? Because they confuse think these companies are part of the Forex, when in fact they are not, they say they will invest their money in forex, but in truth, there is evidence that they do not. Conclusion, if it is too good to be true, then it is not. Do not invest with them.

2. They will speak badly of the banks and financial institutions and thus justify not regulated by any watchdog or by any government. They are so clever that makes us believe that banks are the villains, that banks are selfish, do not want us to win best interests to have our money and they are getting rich with our money. In this way they achieve their objective, you invest with them to please them not to banks.

3. March. These companies raise money, so it is, capture money from their customers and their customers do not receive a diploma attesting to their investment, and still, less to be legally recognized and most worrisome is not that, but these companies are not authorized to raise money, imagine.

4. High interest according to invested capital. “The more we invest more wins.” Absurd, because in forex gains cannot be guaranteed. Here are the actual statistics on Forex: “99% of traders lose money in their accounts to forex trading and worse,” 10% of them go bankrupt. ” So logically, is there any guarantee that these companies are within that small group of winners of 1%. No, no.

5. Attractive commissions for promoting your business and get new customers or investors. This is a great motivation to “share” this great opportunity especially with family and close friends. Then all in the family.

6. Minimum capital investment to open a virtual account, to engage customers. This will show generous to allow any person of any social class can access the investment world.

7. Companies that managed forex funds find it difficult to give money to their customers, whether capital or earnings. That’s why they have invented a method of internal transfer of stocks between investors famously known as “cash out.” This ingenious method makes the investor has to promote these companies to attract new investors and thus their money. How? For example, if this month I have to charge about 200 dollars of profit, perforce I have to find a new investor wants to invest $ 200 in order to collect my winnings, meaning that he gave me the money to me directly and I only will transfer the balance of my virtual account in that company to the account of the new investor. And so these companies do not pay out a dime.

8. August. Now think a bit. If these companies are not authorized to raise money. Fewer still are allowed to transfer money among their clients. Why: a) because it would be committing the crime of laundering money b) they do not make any transfer, just move the numbers, because that money is not there. Dangerous indeed.

9. You’ve heard the phrase: Let the money work for you. If true. How you intend to make your money work for you, without any prior knowledge without experience, without a system. Permiteme was impossible.
Finally, the list is too long and I hope that what you’ve seen the complete certainty that if someone offers you the possibility of investing in Forex den have the wisdom to say no. Not only that but be supportive of others and warn them of the danger they are running … So let us not be mere spectators and to share this information with others and avoid that the world has more scams. For sure we will be rewarded.

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