Monday, March 25, 2013

2013 Opening Day Preview, Part 4.

#10: Alex Gordon






Player             bWAR

Justin Verlander   15.9
Ryan Braun         14.5
Miguel Cabrera     14.2
Ben Zobrist        14.0
Robinson Cano      13.4
Alex Gordon        13.3
Dustin Pedroia     12.5
Clayton Kershaw    12.5
Cliff Lee          12.5
Andrew McCutchen   12.3
Adrian Beltre      12.3















Let’s go through the list one by one.




4. Check.

5. Check.











#9: Second Baseman










#8: James Shields



#7: Mike Moustakas





#6: Lorenzo Cain







chrisc said...
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chrisc said...

Five players left: French, Davis, Salvy, Hosmer, and Santana. I'd rank importance of performance in 2013 as:

5) Frenchy - diff between best and worst outcome not as great as 1-4, but Royals are dependent upon improved performance from 2012 b/c they have no other good RF options.
4) Davis - One of two wild cards in the rotation. Does Davis' 2012 performance in relief translate to rotation? Or does he revert back to Bruce Chen+ type numbers?
3) Salvy - Royals need him to be as good as he has been, but small sample size of games leads to some mystery over whether he can produce at the same rate over the entire season. Also, its important that he stays healthy -- better backup options than last year, but still large drop off.
2) Santana - If we get Santana circa 2010-2011, then the trade was a coup. Not so much if we get the 2012 version = Sanchez V.2
1) Hosmer - Royals fielding an above avg. lineup almost entirely rests upon Hosmer being 2011 + improvement and ultimately an All-Star caliber raking first basemen. Not the 2012 out machine.

Anyone else care to guess how Rany will rank?

First Baptist Church, Stephens said...

5. Perez - I don't think Rany can fathom Perez not being really good. Others are the ones with questions about him.

4. Santana - Most expect as bad as last year or in between last year and previous good ones. If he can be closer to the better seasons, they might have something. But it's hard to imagine him being all that good.

3. Davis - If his K-rate spike can translate into being a more effective starter (sort of like Greinke did after returning from the bullpen), maybe we have a real #2.

2. Francoeur - The difference between the '11 and '12 versions is five wins.

1. Hosmer - obviously. The reason I didn't want them to trade Myers is that they needed Myers or Hosmer (if not both) to be great to contend consistently. By trading Myers, they have bet it all on Hosmer. They absolutely must be right. They can have a good offense if he takes a step up from his rookie year. They will not score enough if he is as bad as last year.

J35J said...

Defense is still hard to quantify and it's given too much value in the WAR calculations, IMO.

With that said, great article once again.

Deep Dixie Blue said...

Great analysis on Gordon. And, yes, I was completely unaware of Cain's bWar thus far in his career. Nice catch.

BobDD said...

I know we're supposed to be past this, but I just cannot read this without thinking how much easier it would be to find someone to replace Shields value than to find another Myers to replace Francoeur.

We don't have more Myers' in the pipeline, but we do have several potential Shields a season or two away: Zimmer, Duffy, Paulino, Lamb, Montgomer (?yeah I know), Odorizzi, Ventura and I'm sure I've left out a couple or more.

But potential OF studs? No, just a couple of 4th and 5th OFs in camp and a guy in A ball who hits but doesn't walk.

Also discouraging is that GMDM+ cannot or will not see that spending time grooming Getz will only get them a below average 2B while putting that same emphasis and support to Gio can get them an above average 2B. It's not guaranteed with Gio, but Getz' ceiling is to be below average - maybe merely replacement value. Why would they ensure that they will have someone in their lineup that MUST be replaced? Arggh!

Steve N said...

I read that Mendoza will be the 5th starter and Chen to the pen. This puts Hochevan and Chen there, then. Relief was a strength. Adding 2 mediocre, or less, starters would seem to dilute the talent quite a bit.

Troy Harrison said...

If you can construct a stat that 'proves' that Alex Gordon is more valuable than Josh Hamilton, you have an incorrect stat.

twm said...

Troy: Obviously Rany is engaged in a bit of obfuscation regarding Hamilton and Gordon, and if you look at their fWAR numbers over the past two seasons the separation is less dramatic. Yes, Hamilton is an exceptional player, and, yes, much of Gordon's excess value as measured by WAR is eaten up by playing time (i.e. Hamilton's injuries) and defensive effectiveness (i.e. Hamilton is not a center fielder), but those are important considerations -- durability and defensive prowess -- when constructing a winning baseball team, and they should be reflected in each player's estimated overall value.

And besides all that, Rany's point is still well taken: Gordon is durable, an excellent defender and an all-around contributor on offense, and as both bWAR and fWAR show, that skill set is extremely valuable to baseball teams, though as All Star and MVP voting demonstrate, the gap between actual value and perceived value among fans and baseball writers can be quite large.

And just because I have nothing better to do, let's keep talking about Hamilton a bit.

I fully expect that a move to RF in Anaheim will improve his overall value as he should at least be an average defender there and might even be a plus defender, though modestly so. But his offensive numbers won't look as pretty either. Hamilton's home/road splits are not terrible, but they are striking, as for his career he looks like 2012 Robinson Cano (330/370/560'ish) while in Arlington and then 2012 Yoenis Cespedes (290/350/500'ish) on the road. Both are valuable, obviously (particularly because Cespedes calls Oakland home), but one is otherworldly while the other is just quite good. Maybe Anaheim won't effect him that much, but expectations for Hamilton's offense should probably be tempered a bit moving forward. He'll still be an exceptional base runner and a crazy powerful man, but his escalating strike out numbers are not encouraging, nor is his move away from Arlington.

Charles Winters said...

Certainly Hamilton's dwar will rise in going to RF, but he'll pay a 10 run positional penalty to do so. I think that this will erase most of the difference.

twm said...

True, I hadn't factored in the positional,adjustment, but Hamilton played roughly 40% of his games in LF already, and now I admit that I have no interest in figuring out how his offensive value will be affected by the full time shift to a corner outfield position.