How Much Does Spinning the Chamber Really Help?

Really? A math word problem in law school?





Malone’s Odds


=1 – odds of all three trigger pulls NOT firing


=1 – (0.8) (0.75) (0.67)




Would Spinning the Chamber Have Helped?



In this case, the odds would now be calculated as:

=1 – (0.8) (0.8) (0.8)




2 responses

  1. Great example of probability! I’ll use this in my class when I teach probability next. But you only answered the math question and not the legal question. Does that say something about the feasibility of concrete answers in law vs. mathematics?

    1. No one knows. In the original case, Malone was convicted of depraved heart murder. The court did talk about the probability (they rounded to 60%) that his friend would get hurt was high enough to prove his “wicked disposition.” But, they didn’t say at what probability it would be low enough to mitigate it down to involuntary manslaughter. My personal guess is that 48.8% is still pretty close to 50/50 and if someone was tang a 50/50 chance on killing someone, that’s still pretty “wicked.”

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