Scenario Planning for Climate Change Adaptation Decision Making: The State of the Art

Scenario planning experts meet to discuss applications of scenario planning techniques at “Scenario Planning for Climate Change Adaptation Decision Making: The State of the Art” workshop held at the University of Arizona in 2015. This workshop was focused on understanding alternative approaches to scenario planning, lessons learned in using them, and ways of extending and combining the approaches that are currently in use. 

The workshop explored lessons learned in applications of specific scenario planning techniques as well as connections between the different methods that have emerged, with respect to how they frame uncertainty and how they function in a decision support context. We also discussed several alternative science-based approaches and modes of engaging stakeholders in scenario planning, while promoting scholarly work to assess the state of the art.

The workshop was designed to address the following topics:

  • To what extent is scenario planning the answer to the challenge of decision-making in the context of a changing and uncertain future?
  • What is needed to move scenario planning forward in various contexts?
  • How can what is learned be better integrated into organizations, programs, and agencies?
  • How can we best provide a broader understanding of methods, their respective value, and their appropriateness to particular decisions or problems encountered by prospective users of scenario planning methods?
  • What other resources are needed to improve scenario planning processes?

SUMMARY: As described in the Climate Risk Management paper linked below, the workshop examined scenario planning applications that combine previously distinct scenario methods in new and innovative ways. It drew on numerous recent independent case studies to illustrate emerging practices, such as far stronger connections between researcher-driven and participatory approaches and cycling between exploratory and normative perspectives. Outcomes included a call for greater support for, and collaboration among, practitioners with the argument that mixed methods are most effective for decision-making in the context of climate change challenges.

Full information about the workshop, including a white paper, the workshop report, participants, case studies presented is at 

PUBLICATIONS that were outcomes of the workshop:

  • Garfin, G.M., Black, M., & Rowland, E.  2015. Advancing scenario planning for climate decision making. EOS: Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 96.
  • Star, J., E.L. Rowland, M.E. Black, C.A.F. Enquist, G. Garfin, C. Hawkins Hoffmann, H. Hartmann, K.L. Jacobs, R.H. Moss, and A.M. Waple. 2016.  Supporting adaptation decisions through scenario planning: enabling the effective use of multiple methods.  Climate Risk Management, 13 (2016): 88-94.