

Mankind grossly unprepared for catastrophic volcano

There is a one in ten chance that a catastrophic volcanic eruption that would revert the earth to a "pre-civilisation state" could strike by the end of this century — and humanity is unprepared, academics warn.
The numerous links between nations and high population density mean that a volcanic explosion that killed tens of thousands two centuries ago could potentially kill millions today, a panel of geologists, economists and climate scientists from the European Science Foundation warned in a report presented at the European Geosciences Union general assembly in Vienna on Tuesday.
The academics believe there is a five to ten percent chance that an eruption measuring seven on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI 7) could occur before the end of the century.
The last VEI 7 eruption occurred at Tambora in Indonesia and caused 92,000 deaths in 1815.
"Events on the scale of the Toba eruption 74,000 years ago could return humanity to a pre-civilisation state,” the report warned.

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"Volcanic eruptions can have more severe impacts through atmospheric and climate effects, and can lead to drastic problems in food and water security, as emphasised by the widespread famine and diseases that were rampant after the Laki 1783 and Tambora 1815 eruptions. Hence extreme volcanic eruptions pose a higher associated risk than all other natural hazards with similar recurrence periods, including asteroid impacts."
The chances of a VEI 8 event in the near future are much smaller with such eruptions thought to occur every 800,000 years.
The last VEI 8 explosion was the Toba eruption, which is estimated to have killed more than half the world's population 74,000 years ago.
If such an event occurred today scientists estimate it could kill up to a tenth of the world's population.
The scientists are calling on world leaders to dedicate almost $4 billion a year on a global network to monitor volcanic activity.

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