This month, the OnCue Express gas station in Oklahoma City lowered its price for a gallon of regular gas to $1.99.

Nationwide, the average price is $2.41 per gallon, down from a high of $3.70 the end of April. Gas prices are the lowest they have been in five years and are expected to decline further, following the $50 collapse in oil prices since this summer.

Prices are down because of a combination of reduced demand and dramatically increased supply created to an extent by the hydraulic fracturing revolution known as fracking.






Domestically, more affordable oil is good news for everyone, except the fracking industry and environmentalists.

Cheaper gasoline means more disposable income, and lower shipping costs leads to lower prices. Low energy costs tend to boost economic growth, potentially spurring job creation in an economy that has failed to produce rising wages.

OPEC’s gamble is America’s gain, and not just in the short term. The problem with Saudi minister al-Naimi’s strategy is that he does not have a viable endgame. Even if OPEC can hold prices down long enough for American energy companies to feel the pinch, the oil-revenue-dependent states can’t keep prices depressed forever.

When oil bottoms out and begins to rise again, fracking will once more become profitable and the cycle will repeat. And as shale oil extraction technology improves and becomes more efficient, the break-even point will decline further, making it that much harder for OPEC to wage economic war.

The question is not how far down OPEC has to drive oil prices to spell the doom of fracking. It is whether OPEC will even survive to see that day.

James S. Robbins, author of The Real Custer: From Boy General to Tragic Hero, is a member of USA TODAY’s Board of Contributors.

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