Thursday, October 17, 2019

October 18th: Worlds 2019 - Main Event Group Stage Day 6

Day 5 Takeaways:

1) I was wrong to put FunPlus in the top tier but not because of today's results.
This is less to do with what we've seen of FPX in this tournament and more to do with the fact that I have been saying all year long that I think the LPL is fundamentally weaker region than people think. Is the LPL a weak region? Absolutely not but they do tend to be a lot shakier in their strategic foundations. I just think people gave them the benefit of the doubt after Invictus won Worlds last year a bit too much. FunPlus aren't immune to this either. I've been saying all along that this team isn't a technique perfect strategic team by any stretch of the imagination. They win with raw individual ability and outstanding team chemistry which is impressive and helped them dominate a region where they were rarely punished for their often reckless drafts. I absolutely loved the Chogath pick by Splyce today not just into Gangplank but fundamentally into how FunPlus like to play. Similar to how I loved the Fiora pick against Griffin, Chogath attacks everything this team wants to do and more or less shutout Doinb's all-in pool of Galio, Sion, Renekton, and Kled as well as create a difficult and disruptive tank for his lower range and tempo plays like Ryze. It was a brilliant idea and it worked out for Splyce. I still think FunPlus are an outstanding team, one of the best in the tournament but I think I was a bit hasty to put them in a tier with G2 and SKT.

2) Splyce had some brilliant drafts and made some great adjustments.
I'm not going to lie, I thought Splyce performed worse than they did all year and while I typically tend to side with regression to their expected norm, something about how Splyce were operating in this tournament just made me think something was wrong and that they were going to crash and burn. I was pleasantly surprised to see that wasn't the case. Splyce weren't perfect or looking like a tournament winning team but they made the adjustments, had great game plans, and played not just better than the level we'd seen in this tournament but better than I thought they'd played most of the year. While I was impressed with their ability to adjust I do think they're going to have a really tough time in a best of five against any of the likely teams to escape groups because of overall player quality and the fact that I think they faced a group of extremely linear teams and that they'll struggle against more versatile ones.


Worlds 2019 - Main Event Group Stage Day 6

(listed odds are from Nitrogen/5Dimes, obviously shop around as availability varies)

Griffin -287 vs Cloud 9 +200

I mentioned yesterday that I'd be laying a lot of chalk in the second half of these round robins as the better teams start to solve some of the best of one puzzles presented by the others. Yesterday we saw some depth of strategy from Splyce to make things interesting but that was also in a weaker group so some of those teams couldn't properly impliment these concepts. Cloud 9 could play spoiler in this group. I'm fairly certain Hong Kong Attitude, despite impressing me, are even in the same ballpark as some of these teams which means that, combined with what I'm expecting to be regression to their anticipated level of performance in some manner, they're going to really struggle to even keep things competitive unless the good teams make some egregious errors.

In their first match Cloud 9 had the most brilliant draft to attack Griffin that I've seen this tournament and it was working incredibly well until they botched their close and eventually lost. I, for one, think that was the best possible situation and they still couldn't get it done. What's more is that Griffin covered their kill spread by a mile. I'd expect Griffin have this on their radar as a possible strategy now and will be prepared for it. I'm sure Reapered has something spicy cooked up for this rematch but I don't know what could possibly top the idea they had in that game, a strategy that I'm confident Griffin will not draft into this time around.

I haven't mentioned it but as I'm writing there's been an update on the behind the scenes situation going on with the Griffin management. They've been sacked by sponsors/investors. I can't see this as being anything but a boon to this team who have to feel like some weight has been lifted that they've been carrying this entire time. It's a lot of messed up stuff that you can look into on your own time but these players can focus on the game now and play for their own benefit instead of having to worry about all the drama. We might also see Doran back in given the relation Sword had to the management but I'm not 100% one way or the other on it. Perhaps we'll see a mix of both depending on the draft/matchup.

Griffin roll.

Kill Spread: Griffin -7.5 kills @ -110 (2 units)


G2 eSports -1100 vs Hong Kong Attitude +760

G2 played with a tremendous amount of disrespect and actually got themselves behind early against HKA but I can't see them making that mistake again after the "scare." And was it even a scare? They weren't really behind for more than a few minutes at any point in that game. Anyway G2 stomp not much more to say here.

Kill Spread: G2 eSports -9.5 kills @ -120 (2 units)


Hong Kong Attitude +445 vs Griffin -590

Yet again chalk. Griffin and G2 are worlds better than HKA. If I could bet on a shutout or under 5 kills prop I would. Griffin are too clean and disciplined and even if HKA attempt to take the fight to them I just can't see Griffin doing anything other than exactly what they're supposed to do which is absorb whatever attempts HKA throw at them and grind them to a pulp afterwards. Consider the relatively "poor" Griffin we've seen so far and expect them to improve. Griffin roll.

Kill Spread: Griffin -8.5 kills @ -115 (2 units)

Over/Under: UNDER 24.5 total kills @ -115 (0.5 units)


Cloud 9 +271 vs G2 eSports -422

(waiting for lines will likely be on the kill spread here as well if it's anything under 9. I think G2 might mess around with Cloud 9 especially if they handle business and clinch a top eight berth.

Kill Spread: G2 eSports -7.5 kills @ -120 (1 unit)


Hong Kong Attitude +160 vs Cloud 9 -234

Cloud 9 should handle business in this one but I'm interested to see where the totals come in. Pending.


G2 eSports -200 vs Griffin +150

I know G2 look unstoppable but I don't think anybody should be favored by this much over Griffin including G2 and SKT in a best of one. Gimme the dogs for a half unit.

Moneyline: Griffin +150 (0.5 units)



none for now, possibly later

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