The latest on Hurricane Matthew

Hurricane Matthew has continued to slowly weaken and is currently a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Matthew is expected to move north, then northeast through the rest of Saturday along the coast of South Carolina, before turning east into the North Atlantic during Sunday.

Despite not quite making landfall Matthew caused extensive flooding from a combination of storm surge and torrential rain along central and northern parts of the Florida east coast. Daytona Beach, Augustine and Jacksonville have been particularly hard hit.

As a category 2 hurricane Matthew still has winds of around 105 mph and could just make landfall over South Carolina before moving back over water later. Regardless of whether Matthew makes landfall or not, damaging hurricane-force winds are likely in coastal parts of South Carolina and possibly North Carolina later today.

Coastal areas of North and South Carolina are likely to experience significant impacts from Matthew. Rainfall totals of 200-400mm, combined with storm surge will bring severe flooding.

Image courtesy of NOAA

Image courtesy of NOAA

Once Matthew moves out to sea later on Sunday (09/10/16) the track the storm subsequently takes remains considerably uncertain. Currently the official forecast still shows a turn southwards as Matthew weakens, perhaps eventually bringing more heavy rain to Bahamas by the middle of next week. However other possible scenarios include Matthew interacting with Tropical Storm Nicole and eventually turning north or northeast.

Similarly the future track of Nicole is uncertain, but there could be a potential threat to Bermuda later next week.

Given Matthew did not make landfall at category 3, Wilma (2005) is the last major hurricane to make landfall in the US.

Elsewhere in the world

Tropical Storm Aere is currently located to the south-east of Hong Kong. It is forecast to move very slowly just offshore of southern China. At this stage it is difficult to say whether any land areas will be directly affected.

Further Information

Official warnings for the latest tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are issued by the US National Hurricane Center. In the western North Pacific warnings are issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The Met Office routinely supplies predictions of cyclone tracks from its global forecast model to regional meteorological centres worldwide, which are used along with guidance from other models in the production of forecasts and guidance. We also provide updates on current tropical storms via @metofficestorms on Twitter.

