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GameStop Corp. Message Board

  • wbuffettman wbuffettman Dec 27, 2007 3:13 PM Flag

    GME Mkt Cap almost half of what

    Best Buy joke.

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    • For those of us of lesser intelligence...Huh?...Your point is?

    • "Insiders seem to agree!"

      --> LOL

      "ignore at your own are nothing more than an IBD lemming!"

      --> LOL, lionel is the one who already sold calls (thereby capping his gains) so he benefits from a stock pullback that gives him the opportunity to buy them back cheaper or possibly expire...

      --> The stock will most likely be choppy for a while but should be up 15-25% over the next yr. "IMO"...


    • Hi Xray,

      I should have spent more time with that post. I'm basically sticking with my analysis/mod posts from 3 month ago which were $66-$70 for Feb-Apr(08) and $75-80 for late Sep/early Oct. The significance of the Sep/Oct tgt price was simply that it was 1yr from when I made the original post. The $75-80 tgt represents gains of 20-30% upside from the current price of $62-63 so I should have said 20-30% instead of 15-25%. Again, that's a tgt for late Sep/Oct 2008 (not 2008 yr end).

      IMO, there's going to be a lot of potential turmoil at the end of 08' due many things like the election, and concerns over future tax treatment of cap gains so my next tgt is for Feb-Apr 09' and is $82-88. That represents an approximately 25% gain from my Feb-Apr 08' $66-70 tgt and a 35% gain from current levels. To emphasize, 35% isn't a 1 yr gain it's a 14-16 month gain from the current price. My yr over yr gains are all pretty constant at 20-30% (25%avg) and are based on new store openings, an expanded game console base, and game console add-on sales. The main risks are increasing competition, and the anticipation of tough comps which will likely be an issue in CY09' and "could" lead to future growth rates of only 15%'ish for the next few yrs beyond early 09'. It's all "JMO" but I do try to put more thought into my tgt prices. It often seems like a lot of posters in here just want to be "Wonka-like" (i.e. "everlasting" positive) such as the fairly recent posts calling for $70-75 by yr end...

      I think these are very fair tgts assuming no "big", currently "unknown", news (good or bad) before their respective timeframes. I'll re-evaluated mid yr based on store openings, qtrly sales results, updated software release schedules, and competition influences but right now I'm comfortable with those estimates. Again, tough fwd looking comps (into CY09') could easily become an issue impacting the stock as the Feb-Apr 09' period arrives because my initial thoughts are that the results we see in 08' will be tough to match/beat in CY09'. How much impact that has on the stock (and if it's accurate) will become more clear in about 9-12 months.

      Happy Holidays!!!


    • What if the company misses estimates by say some 10%?

    • What, if any "special event" do you forsee when they announce their Fiscal year end numbers. Regardless of stock price, they will be sitting on a lot of cash.

      1. Dividend?
      2. Stock Split? 3/2 or 2/1?
      3. Debt retirement?
      4. Aquisition?

    • uh what? If I read your message as written, "GME Mkt Cap almost half of what Best Buy joke."

      However GME's market cap is about 1/7th of BBY. Or otherwise put, 3.25 Billion vs 25.7 billion.

      Your post makes zero sense and is a total invention.

    • amazing. I don't know if this company is valued at $3Billion or $10Billion, but I like it either way! Now that is doing your homework.

    • 1. I'd be very surprised/shocked by a dividend.

      2. I still expect a split next yr. It could be 3/2 or 2/1 but will probably occur earlier if it's 3/2 because I don't think they should want to see their stock below $35-40 (JMO). Assuming that to be correct, they wouldn't look at a 2/1 until comfortably in the $70-80 range late in 08' but a 3/2 could be done anytime over the next 1 to 2 qtrs.

      3. A little debt retirement is a possibility but they don't really have an excessive amount of debt in the first place. They're still spending money on new stores openings as well.

      4. They already acquired their main competition and I'm really not sure what else would make sense to buy now. I can't think of anything domestically and the weak dollar makes an int'l acquisition expensive.

      All-in-all I think a 3/2 split, and a little debt retirement and/or stock repurchases are the most likely actions over the next few qtrs while letting their overall cash levels remain steady or grow a little.

      JMO. What's everyone else's?...


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