Where's Auburn going bowling? It's anybody's guess

AUBURN LSUSenior Ben Tate will have a chance to extend his career in the bowl game.
With a glut of teams at the bottom of the SEC standings, predicting bowl destinations is more difficult than ever this year.

But that didn't stop me from trying to make sense of the bowl picture. Read on...

First, let's look at all the bowl-eligible SEC teams...

The top tier -- BCS bound
Florida -- 12-0, 8-0
Alabama -- 12-0, 8-0

Up next?
LSU -- 9-3, 5-3
Ole Miss -- 8-4, 4-4 (two of Rebels' wins were against Championship Subdivision schools)

Out of the East
Georgia -- 7-5, 4-4
Tennessee -- 7-5, 4-4
Kentucky -- 7-5, 3-5
South Carolina -- 7-5, 3-5

Out of the West
Arkansas -- 7-5, 3-5
Auburn -- 7-5, 3-5 

Yes, that would be six of the 10 teams at 7-5. That means Auburn could possibly go as high as the Outback or Cotton as low as the Bowl. In between, there's the Independence, Music City, Liberty and Chick-Fil-A bowls.

Let's break down each possibility.

We're starting with this assumption: The winner of the Alabama-Florida game will go to the BCS national championship in Pasadena, Calif., and the loser will go to the Sugar Bowl.

For the sake of simplicity, let's add another assumption: LSU, as the next-best non-BCS team, will go to the Capital One Bowl.

OK, now it gets complicated.

The Outback Bowl, Tampa/The Cotton Bowl, Dallas
* These two bowls are bracketed together. The Outback typically gets the SEC East, while the Cotton gets the West, although they can "trade" if they would prefer.

The strong hunch is that the Outback will stick to its Eastern roots and take Tennessee. The Cotton Bowl would be left with some unappealing options, which is a shame, because the bowl was hoping for a high-profile match-up in its new stadium as it tries to burnish its BCS credentials.

The Cotton Bowl could take Ole Miss, but the Rebels went there last year and the perception is that they underachieved this year (even though they finished with the same 8-4 record).

If the Cotton Bowl ditched the Rebs, I imagine it would select Arkansas instead. But that's far from certain.

Auburn technically has a chance for each of these bowls, but I would consider it a long-shot.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl, Atlanta
This bowl gets the next pick. Either Georgia or Auburn would sell plenty of tickets, but this game is always a good draw and the bowl probably doesn't have to worry about ticket sales. The Chamber of Commerce might prefer an outside-the-region team like Kentucky or South Carolina, whose fans would be more likely to spend a couple of nights in hotel rooms. 

Basically, the Chick-Fil-A can do what it wants and should have a whole slew of relatively even teams to choose from. Virginia Tech could be the SEC's opponent from the ACC.

Auburn fans represented well here two years ago against Clemson and I wouldn't be surprised if the Tigers end up here again.

Music City Bowl, Nashville, Tenn./Liberty Bowl, Memphis, Tenn.
These two bowls are also bracketed together. If they want the same team, the team gets to choose. I have no idea which bowl Auburn would want in that scenario. The Conference USA champion (Houston or East Carolina) will play in Memphis, and that could be a tough game.

Arkansas would be a good geographic fit for the Liberty. Plus, there is some historic connection between Houston and Arkansas, I think.

If the Chick-Fil-A doesn't pick Auburn, I think it's very likely the Tigers end up in one of these two bowls.

Independence Bowl, Shreveport, La.
If not, they could slip to the Independence Bowl, which will probably host either Texas A&M or Iowa State from the Big 12. The Gene Chizik-Paul Rhoads battle might be tough to pass up, although the Aggies would presumably sell a lot of tickets. Either way, it's not a bad match-up., Birmingham
If Auburn is bypassed by Shreveport, the Tigers end up at Legion Field, which is probably not where they want to be, in all honesty. 

Although I have seen at least one bowl projection send Auburn to Birmingham, I don't think it's likely. I have to think Auburn would promise (and perhaps deliver) big ticket guarantees to other bowls to avoid this fate. But a 7-5 team will end up here, and Auburn is one of the six.