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TMFMmbop (39.72)

Where will we be investing in 20 years?



November 09, 2009 – Comments (2)

We had this conversation on our Global Gains discussion boards, but I thought it was interesting enough to bring out into the open on the blog.

As you may know, today marks the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Die Mauer, as it was known in Germany, was long a symbol of Cold War political and economic oppression, a divide between East and West. It would have been unthinkable for American investors to put their money to work in Eastern Europe before that day in 1989. Today, however, Eastern Europe is one of the world's fastest-growing regions, and despite some headwinds, it's one that will continue to attract global investment.

Similarly, one of the most interesting parts of our recent visit to Vietnam was seeing the Cu Chi tunnels outside Saigon -- just 40 years after American and Viet Cong soldiers were engaged in violent fighting there. The tunnels are now a popular tourist attraction, and Americans are visiting Vietnam in record numbers.

Both of these things are a reminder of just how fast this world changes. So, my question to you is this: Where will we be investing in 20 years that seems unthinkable today? My own guess is Iran. It's a large market with a population of some 65 million. It's resource rich, which means the world wants in. Recent protests there show that the country will not let tyranny rule there for long. And the US has a relatively large and well-educated group of Iranian Americans who could spearhead a warming of business relations between the two countries (which is what has significantly helped the improvement in relations between the US and Vietnam).

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 09, 2009 at 8:45 PM, walt373 (99.86) wrote:

The Moon :D

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#2) On November 09, 2009 at 8:54 PM, thefatalist (< 20) wrote:

My partner just went back to Iran (his native country) to sell a condo his family had for roughly $US200,000.  He also has an option on a piece of land meant for a strip mall.  I don't know why it seems so weird to me that many parts of Iran are just like many parts of the United States, but he always tells me if I went there with my bald white head and Western clothes I'd actually have a great time, lots of people would speak to me in English and insist I come over for dinner and drink wine and ask me what it's like to live in America.  He tells me not a single person would give me a hard time ever.  He tells me the government is a bunch of horse's asses who have it out for Israel because it used to be that way 1000 years ago, but the people of Iran are as normal as normal can be.

What does that mean for doing business in Iran 20 years from now?  I think it means everything.

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