The road to success

How did I do that?

See article

Readers' comments



a skeptic,You should read the book before you make such venomous and dismissive comments--that's really not "intellectually fashionable". Your sampling of 30 players in the NHL is not statistically significant. Evidence for cutoff date bias has been shown across all countries in many different sports. The sample sizes are in the thousands, and the proof is indisputable. Again, read the book and refrain from nasty comments which only serve to embarrass yourself.



Before you explain why virtually all Canadian elite ice-hockey players are born in the first 3 months of the year, why don't go to the National Hockey League website and check the statistics page. It will turn out that, as of today, among the top 30 (by scoring) Canadian-born players exactly 4 (four!) were born from January to March. The research will take just 5 minutes but will save a lot of embarrassment (and, perhaps, cancelled subscriptions in Canada).

But, apparently, doing your homework is not "intellectually fashionable" these days.

I wonder whether this nonsense comes from Mr. Gladwell's book or from this Economist article. In either case, it is disappointing that the Economist is joining the pseudo-intellectual general discourse led by pop-thinkers such as Mr. Gladwell. Market forces, I guess...

PS. I am sure Mr. Gladwell can convincingly explain why 3 of those 4 (i.e. "virtually all") early born players are Philadelphia Flyers :-)


BFSkinner would highly recommend the book. There can be several instances of 'being at the right place at the right time with the right people with the right attitude to succeed and the right aptitude to do it right'.When do all of them occur together and what it takes one to go for it even if one fails to notice the combination or an imperfect version of it.
In India the astrolegrs do good business in not predicting the combination but the explanation to the seekers how the planets and stars are stopping the combination from happening.
Does anyone really recognize luck by its first appearance?


The main problem with this explanation of success stories is: there are always some events that can be classified as luck, and therefore the thesis is irrefutable.


Of course the read to success has many options. Pure luck,force,power that digs you, hard work.

During China's,opening with Deng at the lead, being in the power nexus certainly helped. Those with guts "jumped into the ocean" while many professionals were contenct with government assignments, that eventually lead nowhere.

Connections with those in power cannot hurt. Being on the ground floor of a 'new cultural innovation" depend more on
your position and availability, than any rational preparatory education.

Good 'old boys school' helped in segregated America, for example.

Thinker Mayor

This is exactly the kind of thinking that got America into this mess. Couldn't have timed it any better. Hard work and creating value is what makes you sucesfull (along with right friends...).
Apart from that, Gladwell usually makes interesting points but he makes the plain mistake of generalizing when all he has to show for is anecdotal/little general evidence.
Keep on thinking that way, makes it only easier to tell the chaff from the wheat...


Latest blog posts - All times are GMT
Yemen: Hot heads
Pomegranate 32 mins ago
China's trade surplus: Strength from weakness
Free exchange 2 hrs 1 mins ago
Regenerative medicine: Bad science
Banyan 3 hrs 18 mins ago
America's economy: Waiting for inflation
Free exchange July 10th, 9:27
The European economy: Four is a trend?
Buttonwood's notebook July 10th, 9:10


Products and events



