A costly mistake that many football bettors make at this time of year is to assume teams that need to win are more likely to do so. Bookmakers quote shorter odds about victories for teams pursuing a title, promotion, the play-offs or safety from relegation. Yet there is no evidence that teams desperate for points are any more likely to get them than they were earlier in the season.

In the past 10 seasons, the teams who finished in the top four in the Premier League gained an average of 2.0 points from each game. In April they averaged 2.0 points per game and in May it was 1.8. The figures do not support the idea that such teams perform better at the end of a season than at other times.

The same can be said of teams who were near the top or bottom of each division in the Football League. In those same 10 seasons the teams who finished in the bottom three places gained an average of 0.9 points from each game.

In March, April and May they averaged that same number. Players who are chasing promotion, or fleeing from relegation, may be under greater pressure and it will inhibit as many of them as it inspires.

On the final day of last season, West Ham escaped relegation by winning away at the champions Manchester United. We tend to remember occasions when teams who needed to win did win but forget the numerous times when they did not. On the final day of the 2004-05 season, the bottom four

teams all had a chance of avoiding relegation if they won but only one of them did. If the odds about a football match seem to ignore the form of a team that needs to win, then back the team that does not. Kevin Pullein is football tipster for the Racing Post