Deadline USA

Can we trust New Hampshire polls?

Probably not

Probably not, writes Quinnipiac University's Peter Brown in the Politico, because the interval between Thursday's Iowa caucus and the Granite State's Tuesday primary is too small to measure the possible effect of Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee's Iowa victories on the New Hampshire race:

Polls that come out Sunday evening or in the Monday morning newspapers will reflect at most three days of polling. Those that come out Tuesday morning - the day of the actual voting - could reflect four full nights.


So take any numbers you here about who's up (currently, Hillary Clinton and John McCain) and who's down between today and Tuesday with a tablespoon of salt.

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Jan 2008