John Elway is a draft nerd. At age 52, he could have any job. Car mogul. The governor of Colorado. But believe it or not: Elway has a thing for mock drafts.

"I like doing them," Elway said Monday.

So here Elway is, mapping out strategy for the NFL draft at Broncos headquarters, channeling his inner Mel Kiper Jr. How much emphasis does Elway put on developing his own mock draft to determine which rookie prospect Denver will take at No. 28 in the first round?

"I think that's real important," Elway said. "Because even though you're not going to be able to figure out every scenario going in, there's so many differences of opinion and it's going to be so fluid, it's very important to get there, go through a mock, then at 28 see the four guys that we're comparing and see who we would take out of those four guys. So, all of a sudden if these four guys are here, we've already made that decision."

Here is my guess: The defensive secondary will present the largest number of good choices when the Broncos pick 28th overall, from cornerbacks D.J. Hayden of Houston and Jamar Taylor of Boise State to safeties Jonathan Cyprien of Florida International and Matt Elam of Florida.

The sexier pick for Denver would be Alabama running back Eddie Lacy or Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te'o.

Sorry, but it's hard to conceive that either Lacy or Te'o will hear his named called at No. 28 in the opening round.

The great advantage of picking late in the first round is apparent, but that doesn't make it less important: That is where a championship-caliber football team finds its next generation of stars.

With success comes increased freedom.

To be sure, the Broncos have pressing needs, especially with the departure of defensive end Elvis Dumervil. But Denver does not have a glaring need at quarterback or another essential position, and holes in the roster are what cause bad teams to reach.

Doing the right thing is harder than it sounds for a 6-10 team whose general manager is feeling the heat. Elway, however, has the luxury of actually following through on the sound philosophy of taking the best player available, regardless of position.

"You look at 20, 21, 22, 23 first-round grades probably given out every year. So, when you get past that point, you're looking at second-rounders where those guys are going to have the impact on your team, just not first-round grades," Elway said.

Should West Virginia's Geno Smith and the other quarterbacks in a weak class for NFL-quality passers slide to the back end of the opening round, it could also give Elway leverage in negotiations to trade down and add another draft pick.

While this draft seems to have a scarcity of players with Hall of Fame potential, Elway trusts he can find talent to help the Broncos win the Super Bowl.

As opposed to other amateur draft nerds furiously scribbling first-round mocks, Denver trusts in Elway.

Of course, there two obvious advantages Elway has over Kiper:

1) Championship rings.

2) Better hair.

Mark Kiszla: 303-954-1053, or