View Full Version : My Lineup VS. Dusty Lineup - RESULTS

03-31-2008, 02:24 AM
I used Dusty's Official opening day lineup, and I ran Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool.

My lineup is...
Votto, Joey
Keppinger, Jeff
Dunn, Adam
Encarnacion, Edwin
Griffey Jr., Ken
Phillips, Brandon
Bruce, Jay
Valentin, Javier
Pitcher 2007

Pitcher 2007 = Reds pitching stats from 2007....

I used MLB.COM Composite Projections. These are 7 different projections from various sources including some of the elite.

Here are the results...
Dusty - Runs per game for above lineup: 4.673.
Me - Runs per game for above lineup: 4.931.

Dusty - 757 Runs Scored
Me - 799 Runs Scored
Last Year - 783 Runs Scored

So basically 42 Runs = about 4 Wins. Lineup construction alone could cost 4 Wins. That's a HUGE difference.

03-31-2008, 02:47 AM
I just noticed this after posting my thread on lineups. Would you mind if I included this lineup among those I test in the Markov chains model?

03-31-2008, 03:10 AM
Don't care. I've made several posts explaining why this is the optimal lineup. Here is 1 of them...

I'd be fine with 1-2. Switching Keppenger/Votto probably does very little. However here is a minor reason why I'd take Votto. He'd get about 25 more PA and in those you would expect 1-2 more HR. Having power from that spot isn't horrible as long as it isn't misused. Votto is more of a doubles type hitter, and that will allow Keppenger to bat with more chances with RISP where a single can score a run. It also splits up L-R I can see the flipside where Votto's doubles allow Keppenger to score from 1st, so it doesn't matter too much.

I hate Phillips between Griffey and Dunn. I think Dunn should bat 3rd anyway, but with this lineup, here's the problem....
Phillips is Casey-like in GIDP. He hit into 45 in the past 2 years. Dunn doesn't really need RISP, and Phillips will wipe out the bases many many times. Instead of a 2-run HR, it becomes a solo shot. Also, Phillips is a low OBP guy with power himself. This will increase the chances Dunn bats with 0 men on, and he'd be hitting many solo HR. I think this has been a problem with why Dunn has barely hit over 100 RBI. The lineup has never been setup with high OBP guys in front of him. If Dunn is 3rd, then he has 2 high OBP guys in front of him, and that HR with a man on 1st becomes more likely, rather than 0 on. Dunn is going to hit 40 HR, and it would give the most value by trying to get as many men on base as possible.

This is why EE is a good choice at cleanup. He's a doubles hitter that can score guys from 1st, but also has a decent enough OBP for a guy like Griffey to drive him in.

BP would bat after Griffey, and that should be fine. Griffey doesn't run well, and with BP hitting 30 HR that doesn't matter. I think it's interesting with how Sheehan said speed later in the order helps. The reason is that lower order hitters won't have much power, so when a 7th/8th/9th guy bats, they won't get many extra base hits. BP's steals allow him to get into scoring position where a single scores him. That maximizes the value of singles lower in the order.

It's a perfect L-R lineup that maximizes the skillsets of each player to achieve the most runs possible. I don't see any flaws in this construction over any other configuration.

03-31-2008, 04:25 AM
Can you run any more combinations? Maybe insert Hopper or Freel?

03-31-2008, 08:52 AM
Comparing your lineup with Dusty's lineup is a little bit like comparing apples to oranges since Baker does not have Jay Bruce to insert into the lineup at this time. Whether that was his call or Krivsky's call or a combination of the two I don't know. But it does make a difference. Try sticking with the people on the 25 man roster at this point and use some combination of Patterson/Freel/Hopper instead of Bruce and see how things turn out. I doubt if you will have that same 4 win differential. If you feel that Bruce should have made the team out of spring training fine. But that is a roster management issue and not a lineup issue.

03-31-2008, 09:03 AM
Problem is, this lineup - or any "theoretical lineup" you put out there can't be projected over 162 games.

If you could put Patterson 300 PA's, Hopper 150 PA's, Freel 150 PA's at #1 then you're talking - but then what Combination of Keppinger (200 PA's in the 2 hole, 200 at ?!?!) AGon (is he REALLY going to bat 2nd?!?!?), are you looking at.

Then you've got the Platoon at 1B.

Then you've got the Platoon at Catcher.

Yeah, we ALL would love Junior to move out of the 3 hole. I think it will happen. In 2009, when he's no longer on the team. Unfortunately looks like Dusty would rather put BP there instead of Dunn, which is also WAY more likely if Dunn isn't on the team.

Quit beating yourself up, might as well just Grin and Bear it with Dusty and the Lineups!



Va Red Fan
03-31-2008, 09:48 AM
I have an answer for all of you guys who want to make out the line-up. Do what I do - join a fantasy league and you get to pick your starters. Otherwise, realize that it is not your job to make out the Reds starting line-up. Also, give the GM and the manager, both whom I have no reason but to respect, your support. Lastly, acknowledge that Dusty with his long MLB career which has been followed by a successful managing career, knows more about what is actually happening in the clubhouse that all of us combined. Enjoy the game instead of BBQing the leadership. Baseball is back!