Super Bowl weather: NJ climatologist fires back at critical Peter King

Charles Curtis | By Charles Curtis | The Star-Ledger
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on December 24, 2013 at 12:04 PM, updated December 24, 2013 at 2:31 PM

Just 24 hours ago, New Jersey state climatologist Dr. David A. Robinson was named one of football writer Peter King's Goats of the Week after Robinson spoke on CBS Sports Network's "That Other Pregame Show" and said there's a one in 10 chance of snow at the Super Bowl.

King, in his Sports Illustrated column, ripped Robinson for "one of the dumbest weather predictions" in history.


On Tuesday, Dr. Robinson spoke to to clarify his remarks, explain the difference between climatological odds and a weather forecast and respond to King's comments.

Here's what he had to say: What was your response when you read what King wrote?

Robinson: "My reaction was that the guy totally misunderstood what was being said and tried to make a story of something that clearly wasn't there. I was annoyed. I'm too much the scientist -- I don't want word to get out just for word to get out. And to be accused of making a weather forecast for that day when I've been giving interviews for months based on the Farmer's Almanac, saying, 'This is not possible,' and being accused of doing that very thing really annoyed me when I explicitly stated over the course of that six-minute interview that you can't do that.

"Then I explicitly said, 'You can get an idea of whether it's warmer or colder than average maybe about two weeks before the event.' And then a week before the event, you can get an idea on whether there might be a significant storm threat for Super Bowl weekend, not for kickoff. And then a couple of days before the event, if you're lucky, you might pinpoint what conditions might be that afternoon and evening." What were you specifically trying to express in Sunday's segment?

Robinson: "Based on climatologic odds, there's a one out of 10 chance that snow could fall during the course of the game." But what are climatologic odds?

Robinson: "Based on an analysis of 80 years of data gathered at Newark's weather station, which is the closest long-term station to MetLife Stadium, we found there's a one out of 10 chance based on past records that it snows during the evening hours of Feb. 2. The record suggests that the largest snow event in the last 80 years on Feb. 2 at Newark is 3.2 inches. Then I made it clear on the show -- and [King] misinterpreted that -- that's one day, but you have to look at our website It looks at the surrounding days. And if you look plus or minus three days, back in 1961, there was a 15.2-inch snowstorm that day.

"The point is: Just because it hasn't snowed more than 3.2 inches on Feb. 2 doesn't mean there could have been a snowstorm on that day. They're just rare. The crux of the matter is: I didn't make a weather forecast for Feb. 2, 2014. I was simply providing analysis of past conditions on and near Feb. 2 so that people could consider the odds of what might happen in terms of temperature, snowfall rainfall and wind speed and direction that day.

"This was born of questions I started getting from the media once It was announced the Super Bowl was going to be at MetLife Stadium. The state police actually requested from me a report on such probabilities because they want to be prepared. People say that's just trivia. But it's not if you're planning this event." Are you going to be doing anything in the weeks leading up to the game?

Robinson: "The office of New Jersey State Climatology, which I head, does not make weather forecasts. We leave that to the National Weather Service. ... I absolutely expect to get multiple phone calls from the media and even perhaps from the state police and the department of transportation, but my role there will be to interpret what's in the forecast. The office won't make a forecast. It would just get too confusing. We stay out of that." So you'll be on your couch, watching the game like everyone else?

Robinson: "Actually, I'll be in Atlanta. I fly to an American Meteorological Society meeting that day. That was scheduled before the Super Bowl was scheduled -- I'm co-chairing a day-long conference on Hurricane Sandy. I guess it might give some people comfort that I'm flying that morning."