

Mexico’s presidential election

Fresh face, same old party

The party that held power for seven decades is poised to take back the presidency. Is Mexico ready?

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Readers' comments



I understand Mr Zerge is a pragmatist, and he speaks true when he says that all parties and all governments are corrupt, and that, ultimately, it is a by-product of government. We nevertheless should not condone it, much less encourage it. Stories of corruption run from Norway to Greece, and from Estonia to Spain (watch the implied gradient with the geography), so the best thing we can do is our civil duty of observe, watch and publicly denounce. I'm a left wing voter that is expecting Ebrard or Mancera to run for president in 2018, but I'm also a pragmatist as well, and have high expectations that PRI will do its best to earn the confidence of the silent opposition, of the vocal opposition, and of the disenfranchised and dissaffected youth. In the first year of his mandate, should EPN not achieve significant advances in the turfs of job creation, tax break abolition and enhanced technological competitiveness, we can always vote him out. We should vote as we buy a put option. As long as our executive and legislative branches are 'in the money', why oust them? The moment they hit the strike, vote them out and opt for another party. As simple as that. Without fanatism, and even without beliefs that tie our decision to a dogma, but only with information and ideas. These bozos are all our employees, after all!

On a final note, I have a little worry on the back of my head: what to do if PRI happens to be the same repressive party of old and starts shutting up, disappearing or outright crushing opposing groups formed by citizens? Mr. Zerge, care to share your view on this issue?

zerge in reply to ramos.cardona

I´ll be happy to. In my view, PRI was much less repressive than most people think, during it´s 70 year party dictatorship. Had it wanted, it could have been like the Chinese Communist Party. But it allowed the creation of opposition parties, and it started a simulated democracy, which eventually turned into a real democracy. They did this knowing that if they became real hardliners, armed revolt would ensue.

There are remarkable exceptions, of course, like the 1968 massacre, and other very deplorable events. But overall, during their party dictatorship, PRI showed a remarkable political ability to defuse problems without violence. Of course most people don´t remember these cases. People remember wars and massacres, but never find out when democracy and politics wins and defuses crises. Just take a look on how the PRI managed and defused the Zapatista uprising. It was a remarkable feat of realpolitik.

Anyhow, nowadays, I don´t think PRI will have any real opposition. What opposing groups are you talking about? Yosoy132? They can be managed. Just allow them to march, let them twit away. What else can they do?
PRD? What are they going to do? They are government also.
AMLO? He will huff and puff, demand a vote recount, which will be granted, and nothing will change. Then?

People in Mexico talk about revolution, about revolting, about not allowing EPN from becoming president, but at the end of the day, everybody has to get back to work to pay their bills. That´s the simple truth.

Also, take into consideration that PRI already governs 20 states. Is there any opposition there?

I just don´t see any real opposition. Do you?

ramos.cardona in reply to zerge

Perhaps I should rephrase: by opposition I'm not referring to a 'loyal opposition' (like UK's shadow government), but to some sort of 'dissenting voices', either well organized and funded (like ONGs and watchdogs) or grassroots and inarticulate (YoSoy132). I believe these are necessary for gauging how well-oiled a democracy is. My distant fear is that these voices could be treated like those in 1968. Granted, we have a different political and social landscape nowadays, but still...
I do agree, nevertheless, that despite not having a filibuster-proof majority in congress, pocketing a downgraded PAN to become an ally for reform purposes will make PRD's opposition vocal, incisive, but ultimately ineffective, which is what democracy is all about, don't you agree?

zerge in reply to ramos.cardona

I would like to point out that I do not condone corruption. My posture is that corruption has to be seen as a business process problem, to be fixed by better controls. And governments across the world have been doing so over the centuries, getting less corrupt little by little.
What we do NOT need to do is take such an emotional stance towards corruption. That´s all.

ramos.cardona in reply to zerge

You've nailed it, Zerge. The problem is that we treat politics not as politics but as football matches. We mexicans tend to take a very emotional stand towards whatever is againast our beliefs. As i said earlier, elections are basically a hiring process, and by becoming emotional about it we turn it into nepotism, pushing our fellow decision makers to hire whomever we want. We shoud cast our vote with plenty of ideas and information, and without dogmas and without 'wrapping ourselves with the flag', if you get my meaning ;)

zerge in reply to ramos.cardona

Indeed. I dream of the day when selecting a president is simply a boring administrative process, like selecting the CEO of a company. No lefts, no rights, no campaigns, just a committee of citizens going over resumes and hiring a guy and his team. One can dream.

Roman T in reply to zerge

Zerge, as many mexicans, you confuse opposition with confrontation or repeal. Opposition in a democracy means to fight with better ideas, to debate all decisions and to show the stupidity and/or incompetence of your adversary. I believe that PRD and PAN unfortunately will have lots of work with Mr Bush Jr aka Peña Nieto & co.


And there you go, Enrique Peña Nieto wins the presidency. Now I suggest we all get back to work, that there´s GDP to be produced.


Haha suddenly Zerge does not "have the time" to reply to anymore comments.

I have seen the EPN campaign offer to give Mexican people a 500 Peso prepaid debit card ($50 USD) after they show them a cell phone picture of themselves voting for EPN and PRI.

Contrary to the propaganda that Zerge spreads on the Economist.com, the Mexican people have not been willfully enduring corruption for centuries. We've had more cival wars, revolutions, and less political stability than any other country in North America. Eech time we still get screwd!

Sadley for Mexico, Alexander von Humboldt's prediction in 1800 that Mexico (New Spain then) would be the major super power of N. America was dead wrong in spite of Mexico initially having much much greater natural resources than the USA.

Mexican Politicians have sqaundered the countries wealth, natural resources, and the Mexico's future through nepotism, ineptitude, greed, and CORRUPTION.

If EPN wins the election, I advise any Mexican Citizen capable of leaving the country to do so. There is NO future for Mexico when the Dinosaurs are back in power.

zerge in reply to KingSnake

Well, there are exactly 3 countries in North America. Saying that Mexico is the most corrupt and unstable out of 3 countries is not much of an example, is it :)

People "endure" corruption across the planet, every day. I´m not saying it´s a good thing, all I´m saying is that in my view, people prefer corruption to social upheaval.

What AMLO has not realized is that the majority of Mexicans want peace an stability, not social justice and witch hunts.

zerge in reply to guest-imseesm

Why is Mexico worse off than the US and Canada? Let me reverse the question: why not?
There are hundreds of countries in the world, some are better off, some are worse off, and the reasons behind are many and complex. Not only that, but it´s an ever changing landscape.

The main reason, IMHO, why the US is so successful is because it reached an economic and technological critical mass very fast. There are also plenty of other reasons, such as its geography, the fact that it was sparsely populated when colonized (no big clash of civilizations like in Mexico), that it got rid of British rule quite fast, the influx of immigrants, etc.

As to Mexico´s situation, let me just leave you with one metric. In 1970, the US economy was 30 times bigger than Mexico. Now it´s only 10 times bigger, and the gap is closing. Will Mexico´s economy ever match the US? I don´t know, probably not. But the day when the US only is only 3 or 4 times bigger than Mexico is a few decades away.

zerge in reply to guest-imseesm

Many factors, of course. But in my opinion, it was a series of power vacuums. When the Spanish Crown left Mexico, it left a huge power vacuum that caused political instability, and therefore economic instability, all the way up to Benito Juarez. Then add the Mexican-American War, where Mexico lost half its territory. Then the French Intervention. When Porfirio Diaz came to power, he seized political control with an iron grip, and Mexico prospered; it´s when Mexico went through it´s first industrialization. Then when Porfirio Diaz left power, the revolution started, which was actually a a civil war of coup after coup after coup. Then the Cristero War. In 1929, the Partido Nacional Revolucionario, PNR, the precursor of PRI, was created. Thanks to the PNR and PRI, political succession became orderly, no longer done through coups. Economic growth followed political stability. Mexico was hit during the Great Depression as any other country, but not as bad as the US. Then it greatly benefited during WWII, specially with al the oil sales to the US. During the 50s, 60s, and part of the 70s, Mexico grew very fast, similar to what is happening to China right now. It was called the Mexican Miracle. Then a series of oil crises during the 80s created a lot of economic turnmoil. In the 90s we had the Peso Crisis. The country grew at a good rate after that, being affected after 9/11, like the rest of the world, and very much affected during this Great Recession, like the rest of the world. In 2012, it is poised to grow at about 4% again.

So yeah, Mexico has economic problems, but so does most countries in the world. Our economic situation is by no means extraordinary. We already had our growth spurt, just like China and India is going through right now. Mexico is now a middle income country, and it´s poised to be a 1st world country in the next decades, and one of the leading economies in the world.

zerge in reply to guest-issjwao

People HAVE been feeling the benefits, and the percentage of people is not increasing in the long trend. Of course there was an increase after the Great Recession; there was an increase of poverty the world over. But the overall arc in Mexico´s history is one of continuous economic improvement, with some significant dips. If you take a look at the GDP/capita from 1900 to now, you can see dips in growth during the Great Depression, some minor dips after that, then some large dips in the 70s and 80s due to the oil crises, then a dip in the 90s due to the Peso Crisis, then 9/11, then the Great Recession. But overall, the country has been consistently growing, and all the socioeconomic metrics have been improving.

When a party like the PRI is in power during 70 years, there are bound to do very good things and very bad things for a country. People focus only on the bad things, but never give a thought to the good things.

guest-issjwao in reply to zerge

Well, let me just say one thing before I ask another question. I didn't say that Mexico's economy is not growing, what concerns me is that meanwhile the economic growth in Mexico has been good and at some periods in time even fast, as you mentioned, the vast majority of the population seems to have felt the effects of a completely different situation.
Even worse, Mexicans continue losing job opportunities, and inflation is always taking away the value of the peso which limits the purchasing power of the population. Can you explain why is this reality so different from the growth of the economy in Mexico?
P.S. I know that political parties are bound to have good and bad actions during their administrations, but the bad thins that PRI has done in the past, are overwhelmingly more significant that the good things.

Multicultural Advisor

@Zerge - I always wonder how such a successful economist like yourself has so much time to respond to each comment posted on this site. Perhaps if you spent less time wowing us with your insights on the collapse of the Mexican peso in the 90's and started doing something to change the course your country is on, Mexico would be a far better place. Make a difference instead of being part of the problem.

zerge in reply to Multicultural Advisor

I work long hours, taking small breaks every few hours, as simple as that :)

As I mentioned before, radicalism, both from the left and the right, are a fundamental, FUNDAMENTAL part of Mexico´s problem. Ask yourself if you are a radical or not.


I really would like to know what The Economist think about the 5a Encuesta Nacional Independiente. It clearly shows that Pena Nieto is not the leading candidate. More important, it shows that polls by the Mexican television networks lost credibility.


I would also encourage readers not to get entangled in useless discussions with people like zerge who clearly has a agenda.



I´m willing to put forth the thesis that the Mexican Silent Majority, those of us not married to a specific party, are willing to tolerate corruption (we´ve done if for centuries), but are NOT willing to tolerate left wing extremism that talks about class warfare and revolutionary struggle, or right wing extremism that wants to control our moral behavior.

The left has to realize that whereas they may attract and energize a certain percentage of the population with their extreme rhetoric, they lose the Silent Majority.

And all of you who support AMLO with religious zeal and intolerance, YOU are the left´s biggest liability, and the main reason you can´t win a presidential election. You pay our country a great disservice with your radicalism.

As to the right, they have to realize the Silent Majority don´t give a damn if people want to take drugs. All we want is peace and stability, so we can work and prosper. All other ideology is BS.

calbearz in reply to zerge

How about a willingness to tolerate corruption and inaptitude? We don't associate politicians with the sharpest knife in the drawer, but EPN is not even a butter knife! Besides, there is also another choice beside AMLO.

zerge in reply to calbearz

EPN is only the front man. I don´t care if he is apt or not; he has the very well oiled PRI machinery behind, and I for one am willing to give them 6 years to prove themselves.

guest-issjwao in reply to zerge

I would advice you to publish a thesis like the one you propose. Maybe if your findings are correct, you can do a great service to the Mexican people, and once and for all destroy any chance of AMLO, or any other leader who follows his same strategy to even fight for the presidency or any other position of power.
Just a reminder, the opposition has tried to destroy AMLO, and so far they are still looking for what finally leaves him no choice but to quit.

guest-imseesm in reply to zerge

You are lying when you say the Mexican people are willing to accept corruption because they have endured it for centuries.

We didn't accept it in 1810, and we didn't accept it in 1910.

I pray people don't accept it in 2012 and elect AMLO.

zerge in reply to guest-imseesm

1810 was an uprising against the Spanish Crown, not because of corruption, but because WE DONT LIKE ANYONE TELLING US WHAT TO DO. Just like I don´t like anyone telling me what to do now, hence my dislike for radicalism.

1910 was a civil war (not really a revolution) caused by the vacuum of power left by Porfirio Diaz. This chaos dragged on until the 1930s. And guess who put an end to it? The PRI!! Bet you didn´t know THAT.

So don´t try to tangle with me using Mexican history, I´m a heavyweight on that, buddy :)

Anyhow, let´s not fight anymore. July 1st is right around the corner. Let´s convene July 2nd here in these fora of The Economist, and if AMLO wins, I will gracefully admit defeat. But if he loses, you better be ready for some very, very mordacious comments on my part :)

zerge in reply to guest-imseesm

Come on, don´t be disingenuous. One becomes an expert by studying a subject, not only by writing books about it. I did write my thesis on Mexico´s economic history, and it´s 160 pages long. Even though it´s not a published book, it has the length of the book. And to write it I had to read a stack of books 3 times your height. So there you go :)


The Economist is understandably apprehensive about a future Mr.Peña presidency.The good news from a foreign investor perspective is that Peña will play by the rules.He will not be Argentina´s Mrs. Fernandez, much less Venezuela´s Mr. Chavez.He will not be as hard a bargainer as Mr. Lula was-nor has Mexico been able to carve for itself the maneuvering space Brazil has.

The bad news is that this looks as a closing chapter into the attempt to turn Mexico into a liberal democracy.A fellow reader has argued in this blog that he voted for PRD in 2006, will vote for Peña now and that if Peña disappoints him he will contribute to vote the PRI out of power in successive elections.Ebrard, or probably Mancera could eventually reach the highest office.The problem is that most people will not reason their vote as scrupulously.

Mr Fox had in 2000 a chance to turn Mexico into a Western Democracy the way Portugal,Spain and Eastern Europe did in the 1970s and 90s respectively.Elections and transfers of power between competing parties are a part.Mexico has these at the state and municipal level.Minority rights, independence of the judiciary, free and fair electoral campaigns, public accountability and transparent use of public funds are another matter.

The continuing prosecution of some of Chiapas indigenous people under, interestingly enough, a PRD governor; Mr. Hank Rohn´s detention on trumped-up charges probably under orders from the presidency;the 2006 reversal of Mr Obrador´s twenty point lead after a relentless media campaign and legal harassment under President Fox´s orders, the total obscurity covering the real situation and real aims of the so-called war on drugs that has killed more Mexicans in six years than the PRI ever did in six decades, and the universally corrupt way in which majors and governors from all parties use public funds are clear signs that the Mexican experiment with Democracy is floundering.

It is a structural phenomenon.PAN´s MR. Fox believed in democracy and transfer of power when that meant for the PRI to hand him down the presidency, but when the turn came for him to hand over power to PRD´s Mr Obrador he saw things quite differently.PAN was the party of the entrepreneurial upper middle class, but when the time came to open up the markets and disband the monopolist-stifled economy,they did nothing.PRD was supposed to be the left-wing party of the dispossessed, but when it ruled Zacatecas the levels of corruption and nepotism were such that a splinter of the local PRD helped put a PRI man back in the Governor´s mansion.Meanwhile PRI´s Mr Moreira and Mr Yarrington have misappropriated as governors funds to the tune of tens of millions of dollars.

Mexico City under the PRD has been a success.This is because both the public and the government elites in Mexico City are simply at a higher level of intellectual and political sophistication than the rest of the country.Mexico City has to be compared with 1990s Greece or Portugal, while PRD´s Chiapas´ frame of reference would be Central America, and PAN´s Baja California´s 1920´s Chicago. When the same PRD has ruled other states rather than Mexico City, the results have been as bad as those of other parties, if not worse.

All this strongly backs the widespread idea that for liberal democracy to work you need a society ready and willing to make it work.Outside guidance is often a decisive factor too.The Western European liberal democracies did their utmost to turn the Mediterranean nations into successful democracies after decades of
military dictatorship, and later repeated the effort with Eastern Europe when the Berlin Wall came down, with great success.The US on the contrary has made the strategic mistake of not only not supporting Mexico´s coming of age, but of impeding it. The end result is a poorer and less reliable nation south of the border.

Liberal democracies respect economic rights out of conviction, other regimes just out of convenience, and History shows the tables can be turned at the least expected moment.American policy towards Mexico has been a grave strategic error in this sense.

jvictor1789 in reply to jvictor1789

Regarding PRI´s return to power, the Atlacomulco Group has been despised by this magazine for decades, probably for its successful anti-liberalism.But the 2006 campaign against PRD´s Mr. Obrador, who would not have been a game-changing president after all, was the wrong chess move that made the PRI´s return to Los Pinos inevitable.PAN was inept enough as exemplified by the mediocre person they chose to be their first president-Mr Fox, a former Coca Cola executive who just never knew when to shut up.They barely managed to hold the presidency one more time, in the disputed 2006 election,but to ask for more was out of the question.And since PRD was denied its chance, PRI was the only option left.

And who within PRI? Naturally the most organized group, the one closest to the business and media power structure, the one holding the greatest prize after DF, the State of Mexico:the Atlacomulco Group.

We have heard accurate descriptions of Peña´s branch of PRI as being above all organized and disciplined. We fail to remember that organization in this context is the ability to make people vote for you and win elections.This is irrespective of real accomplishments, for no democracy, and certainly not Mexico´s, has accurate widely-encompassing metrics to scientifically gauge a politician´s performance. And PRI, which in the XX century claimed to have a "Revolutionary Ideology" now has by its own accounts no ideology at all besides pragmatism. This is also the view of most of PRI´s voters nationwide, which are an overall majority in 2/3 of all states and probably nationwide by next Sunday."We have tried PAN,we have tried PRD-on a municipal and state level in many places- and nothing has changed, all politicians are equally corrupt.Why bother to vote...and if we vote we might as well do it for the devil we know, the party that steals but at least accomplishes something"

This popular view, together with well-oiled corporatism, handouts and propaganda, granted the PRI seventy years of undisputed election wins while Mexico City´s intellectuals were shocked by the distance between the mental universe they inhabited and the reality of the country around them.

Thus we are witnessing the failure of liberal democracy in a nation with the 12 largest GDP in the world-Mexico City itself is the eighth largest economy as an urban area after the likes of Tokyo, NY or LA-. Mexico is turning towards the Chinese-Singaporean model: results, not ideology, and politically centralized power with little voter influence on policy decisions.Results defined as GDP growth however distributed and social stability.The top sets the objectives and the rest marches on.


He will probably rein in the major power brokers that helped to elevate him, probably including the media.Once he fully controls the domestic arena, he may try to reach a more advantageous position with respect to Mexico´s invisible High Elector: the US government.He will diversify, as much or as little as the international situation allows.Finally, when the time comes, he will pick a well-groomed successor, just as he did in Mexico State last year.

And thus in 2019, with China already the number one world economy, the US political system in disarray and increasingly autocratic and economically unequal, and Europe as scared of North America´s developments as North America was of Europe´s in the 1930s, an older Vargas Llosa under full literary devaluation will come back to visit Mexico and this time he will say that History is cyclical and Borges was right not to bother to get involved in politics after all.

zu3Dwfoagc in reply to jvictor1789

Very typical you think you are in TELEVISA making a commentary and then answering with another useless statement to your self.
But, the way TE has been reporting this elections TE has made you believe you are in Televisa. Buy the way have you pick up your debit PRI card.
Best regards.

jvictor1789 in reply to jvictor1789


An overall largest minority,but since "first past the post" is the rule for elections in the Mexican executive branch, that is the equivalent of a majority.

In a three-party system PRI has positioned itself in the "around 40%" slot, while PRD and PAN are in the 30 something and 20 something range.Naturally PRD plus PAN are a majority almost in all circumstances, even in Mexico State, but that does not translate into effective political power, sometimes not even at the legislative level.


I would like to ask Zerge if he has already picked up his debit card from PRI.Zerge by now we all know you are a payed Priista.
you are by no means an economist you have showed that by your very ignorant commentaries all along this elections.


zerge in reply to zu3Dwfoagc

The peso gets devalued and revalued every day, because it´s free floating now.
So if your question is: will there be an explosive devaluation? And the answer is no, that cannot happen anymore.

As to your article, you misunderstand me. I´m not an EPN follower, and I´m not a priista. I´m just anti-AMLO, as simple as that :)


Reeaaally great! So the great 'winner' ("ganón") in this elections will still be the so-called "Revolutionary-Institutional Party" (which is NOT Revolutionary and is NOT Institutional): politicians and tycoons ("caciques") who aren't PRIists, are FORMER PRIists, and if not, have learned and taken benefit from the old-school of PRIism... So WE'LL HAVE ANOTHER SIX YEARS OF HEROD'S LAW (same we'll get f**ked than get screwed)!

WARNING!! the return of PRI to "Los Pinos" House would be as DUMB as: getting back to USSR in Russia, reinstating the Feudal Empire in Japan, or rebuilding the Berlin Wall in Germany...

But never mind, we just want to stop violence in this country, so why not getting back to the 'old deals' between Government and Drug Lords? Hoorrah! So let's grant criminals the same rights that we (honest citizens who work hard, pay taxes, and accomplish the flawed laws of this country) have struggled for. QUITE BRILLIANT IDEA!...

P.S. The master of all ironies: It's to be noted we can find propaganda to vote for PRI/PVEM coalition, when the movie "COLOSIO: THE MURDER" was being played at the cinema... ONLY IN MEXICO, BABY!! =/

Trained at Harvard

Answering Zerge....
Indeed I am a Harvard educated..., and in my field nationally very well known, .....anyway, my field Zerge is not economics, but I'am not blind and I am a MEXICAN CITIZEN, and you do not live in Mexico....
Yes , PESOS CRISIS IS DUE TO OUR POLITICIANS CORRUPTION, but we, mexicans let them do it. This is a country where we do not questionned anyone's duties unfortunately, that is the pattern we raise children ,the way many parents do and teachers. Mr. L.Obrador is very populist, his speech is directly to the poorest people of the country, the ones who have not had anything in centuries....and probably will never have.....and his speech is just a relief for their ears, but he lies all the time and promise these people, the only ones who believe his words, ilusions , for example:" starting my six years period all students will have free education????? (education in this country costs, even to the poor people, Zerge to your knowlege we have public and private schools, for very poor and poor people the publics, where teachers are afiliated obligatory to Mrs. Elba Esther Gordillo , they miss classes, do not teach adequately and school hours are from 8:00 to 12:30 in the mornings only.....And the private school where middle upper class and upper class send their children. Here, teachers do not belong to any sindicate and education is better and their schedule, since President Fox is from 7:30 to 14:30 , as you see education is better, this is for grammar school, junior high and high school and of course, we have produced for years, two class of citizens and the problem begins here the very bad and low educated youngsters, when they became adults they and do not questioned our our politicians their activities, their lies anything and the other citizens that when we bocome adults we do not agree with our politicians and question them,.......BUT WE DO NOT HAVE ANSWERS, and in this country middle class is still a minority, no more than 25 % of the population.
To all of you who are reading this column .....beleive me Mrs. Josefina Vazquez, even if she is not the perfect person for this position , in this triad IS OUR BEST OPTION, and as I already mentioned, with EPN, we will go back to the old years, no doubt about it, :DEVALUATIONS, MORE CORRUPTION, THEY NEGOTIATE WITH THE TERRORISTS....deficient education, not increasing PIB for health, (by the way Zerge if you are in the field of economics and administration did not understand this previosu comment),.... with Mr. L. Obrador lies......and you will have a Venezuela on your backyard. The panorama, readers, is very sad for our country.

Buythebook in reply to zerge

Could you please explain me briefly what caused the peso crisis?

I am an economist, but I am not from Mexico, and you seem to be quite solid on your comments, appart from having a broad knowledge on mexican economic history. Since my country had many currency crisis, I am eager to understand what caused the devaluation in Mexico.

MM28 in reply to Trained at Harvard

Trained at Harvard: Your grammar, spelling and diction do not reflect the level of a Harvard educated individual. Having said that, I agree with you on the improbability of AMLO's proposals and the populist focus of his speech.

Zerge is right, the peso crisis was not caused by corruption. From what I know (and this may be limited as I'm a student)it was a mix of politics and economic policy.

zerge in reply to Buythebook

I´d be happy to.

Up to the 1990s, the Mexican government controlled the peso-dollar exchange rate. It did so because it had a protectionist policy, and had to keep control of imports and exports, specially technology and machinery imports. The government kept the exchange rate fixed by buying and selling pesos in the open market, using US dollars obtained from oil exports. That´s why our biggest devaluations before 1994 happened during oil price decreases.

When Salinas became president in 1988, he started a program of privatizations and free trade. This, together with the signing of NAFTA, attracted a lot of capital into the country, but most of this investment was in securities.

Three political events shook the international investor´s confidence in Mexico: the Zapatista uprising, the assassination of presidential candidate Colosio, and the assassination of the secretary-general of the PRI party, Ruiz Massieu. What ensued was capital flight, and therefore pressure on the exchange rate. The government tried to keep the exchange rate fixed, but eventually ran out of money and allowed it to float freely, causing and explosive devaluation, a spike in interest rates, high inflation, and economic chaos.

This is the short version, and there´s a lot of other details I´m leaving out, but that is what basically happened.

The fact is, economics is hard to understand, and when the average joe sees an economic crisis, he wants to blame someone: politicians, bankers, mafias, etc. If you study economic history, you can see that it has always been this way.

Buythebook in reply to zerge

Thank you very much for your clear explanation.

The privatization process and free trade economic policies that Mexico adopted in the 90's, as you describe them, were implemented by many Latin American countries during that decade, and in some cases had a similar outcome as in Mexico. For instance, Brazil had to devalue its currency un 1999 and Argentina in 2002, after a big inflow of money in the previous 10 years.

I am from the country that applied the worst economic policies in the history of mankind, and is located in the south of South America.

FdoMex in reply to zerge

Economics student here, I'm obviously not qualified to answer this, but, can't it partly be explained by their Agricultural products exports (soy especially?) and oil revenues?

zerge in reply to FdoMex

Maybe, I know little about Argentina´s economy.

GDP per capita can only grow increase in productivity. The question is: how is Argentina´s GDP per capita so high, given the fact that they do have restrictive economic policies? Is it because the policies are working? Or is the GDP per capita high DESPITE such policies? And why?

Plenty of stuff for a PhD dissertation...

Buythebook in reply to zerge

Bad economic policies had an impact on the country's performance. Argentina used to have a GDP per capita equal to Australia and Canada some decades ago, and now the country has a GDP per capita similar to Chile and Mexico.

cmarind in reply to Buythebook

Devaluations always have the same cause: current account deficits. When the government uses artificial means to prop up the value of a currency that should lose value because of continued current account deficits, the devaluation is delayed but when it finally becomes inevitable it also comes as collapse rather than decline...

Migalv in reply to zerge

Harvard isn't what it used to be with so many more universities offering better programs Harvard simply clings to its name. Sadly it's admissions selection has watered down from what it used to be.


I do believe that The Economist would present this kind of information, given the economic point of view taken on the subject. Under PRI Mexico would continue with the privileges of foreign companies, and which have been a constant under their governing terms before 2000. What worries me is that despite the evidence shown exposing Mr. Pena Nieto paying the media duopoly for the mass promotion of his campaign since he was a governor. In the same line, there is also accusations against him for paying companies that run the polls to favor him. As a Mexican reader, I cannot disagree more with the support given to the PRI candidate from The Economist.
Sincerely disappointed.

guest-issjwao in reply to zerge

Televisa, Milenio, and many of the newspapers are all at the service of EPN, and just to make things clear, most in Mexico get their information from Televisa, and yes, I am sincerely dissapointed by that. In perspective, this is a uneven game in which EPN has an unfair advantage over not only AMLO, but JVM too. Anything else zerge?

zerge in reply to guest-issjwao

What you and most PRD supporters don´t seem to understand is that media companies can support anybody they want! No law says they can´t . And the example I always give is the way La Jornada and Proceso support AMLO.

I´m 100% sure that if Televisa supported AMLO, you would not be complaining about it.

guest-issjwao in reply to zerge

Who ever said that I supported PRD, as a political party it is as bad as any other political party in Mexico. I support AMLO and the project he envisions for Mexico and the great team that he has united to be part of his cabinet if he wins the election.
Second of all, I know that there is no law that stops media from supporting a candidate, but there is a law against campaign expenses, and if we are to look at the way the campaign of EPN has wasted money it is amazing not to realize that he has already surpassed the limit a long time ago. In a big way, by the ads on TV, that is the real problem. It is an unfair for all other candidates, and it is not me who says it, it is the law that says so!

MM28 in reply to guest-issjwao

guest-issjwao: The Economist does not support EPN. In a recent article this newspaper stated that had Ebrard been the PRD's candidate it would've endorsed him (I would've done the same). Your comment seems to fall in line with the ones made by the typical AMLO supporter "if you don't support my candidate you're wrong". The Economist happens to be very impartial when compared the mexican publications.

And Zerge is right, what about La Jornada or Proceso?

You also mentioned that EPN had a head-start oveer AMLO and JVM. To be fair, AMLO has been campaigning for over 5 years.

NoGarRu in reply to zerge

Well people read foreign newspapers and magazines to have unbiased information, that is why I do not watch any Mexican tv channels nor read Mexican newspapers, but to see that a foreign newspaper tend to support a miserable man is the worst thing. Firs of all they should not mixed with Mexicans politics and this is established in the law.

guest-issjwao in reply to MM28

To say that Mexico would be better under PRI sounds like support to me. I never said they endorse him, they support him, like I can support any politician.
Secondly, I do not believe myself to be right all the time, I can accept criticism, but we cannot compare things that are disproportional. I did accept that La Jornada and Proceso show support for AMLO, but it is like trying to judge a person who has a knife with a person that has a machine gun. Yes, Proceso and La Jornada support Obrador, but their reach is not nearly as big as Televisa's who just happens to be the biggest TV network in Mexico and which is where at least 80% of the population get their information. Once again, we can discuss politics, and we might disagree on certain topics, but be careful about how we use our arguments, I don't mean to insult anyone in here.
Finally, I know that AMLO traveled all over Mexico during 5 years, but how much media attention did that get? In the same amount of time, EPN used part of the budget to promote his future presidential campaign, and there is proof of that. "The Guardian" made a publication about the matter http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/26/mexican-media-scandal-televi...
Thanks for reading.


A V shape in the murder rate graph, and a roughly M shaped GDP growth graph... Calderón, you were the best tool for ousting PAN from Los Pinos.


I want to say something about the attacks on Obrador, because you guys never mention these. Lets go back to basics. 1. 35 yrs in social service, and working with the indigenous communities. 2. A man that has NO shred of evidence of CORRUPTION. 3. A man that was named 2nd best world mayor of the world (see it for yourself) http://www.worldmayor.com/worldmayor_2004/obrador_second04.html
4. President Fox attempted to Impeach him. 5. President Fox withheld information that could have spared him from corruption of one of his insubordinates. 6. PAN compared Obrador to Chavez, and began a campaign that was totally untrue (just as in the US there was the birther movement, the links of Obama and Islam). 7. Millions of votes dissappeared in an election that was decided by 250,000 votes; 8. There was favoritism towards the Right PAN party of about 10:1 in anuling votes, among irregularities that were not investigated. 9. There were recordings of strong political leaders conspiring to commit fraud over the phone. 10. Indeed if he did call himself the "Legitimate President", you may see it as bad, but I see it as something amazing for the Mexican presidency which continues to flower to this day. 11. You mention that he visited all of those parts of the country and make it seem as something bad, when for him to take into consideration the dirt poor people of Mexico is an incredible humanistic trait. He did not campaign "for his Legitimate presidency" he organized the communities, and gave power to the Mexican people. 12. You call him a Messiah, and I , as Mexican American, call him our Martin Luther King. He is no Messiah, but he is a shinning, and incredible role model for many young people. Mexico needs him as a role model, and I know that you guys are incapable of understanding that because you have not lived in Mexico and you dont care about the well being of Mexican people, all you care about is the OIL. 13. 24 million pop. Mexico city, is today one of the best cities in Mexico, and its all thanks to the legacy of Obrador. 14. Propaganda for the corrupt, Pena Nieto is understandable, as he will facilitate giving away more of the Mexican money to the top 1% corrupt corporate world, and with all of the money he has spent in his campaign, you have never questioned where his millions come from... NARCO-CARTELS or Foreign Corporate Interests? 15. Also he has been recently involved in a FRAUD CASE IN THE US.

MarcoT. in reply to zerge

You remind me of the Republicans in the United States. You dont love your people. Most importantly you want to keep the same image of Mexico abroad. Whomever you support EPN is the face of corruption and crime, did you read this article? JVM is not as bad, except that her resume is hollow and she has in the past misused funds for the indigenous communities, not really present in congress, hasn't really done anything real for the Mexican people. Obrador, turned around the city of Mexico into one of the Best. Don't you love your country? All it takes is good leadership and honesty! We need in the US a good role model for once. All this crap that we keep getting. Now you may try trick people with the 8yr old Bejarano story that was manufactured by the corrupt and the dirty media wars, but Obrador's legacy of goodwill and love of Mexico follows him wherever he goes. Do something for your country and defend, what we in the US see as our Mexcian Martin Luther King. You're in the wrong side of history, buddy.

zerge in reply to MarcoT.

I participated in AMLO´s campaign in 2006, and voted for him. I could have become a subdirector in the economics ministry had he won. So don´t you think for a second you understand how I think and feel.

It was not AMLO but Ebrard the one who improved Mexico City, and I would vote for Ebrard in a heartbeat.

And no, it takes much more than leadership and honesty to run a country. It also takes something that AMLO sorely lacks: political ability.

AMLO has revealed himself to be a messianic, unstable person, who attracts and magnetizes the same type of unstable personalities, who defend him with a downright scary religious zeal.
He, my friend, is no MLK.

If you are in the US, you are just too far away from the trenches to even know what´s going on. You are getting most of your info from Twitter and Facebook, right?

MarcoT. in reply to zerge

AMLO unfortunately has many Traitors in his party. And all the opportunists seem to be heading the PRI way. I'm no bitter subdirector, but I am a physician in Connecticut. Very hard for me to fall into B.S.

Now, if you voted for Obrador then, then you have to vote for him again. If your job right now is to keep talking bad about him, then do so, but for God sakes, vote for him. Don't support the PRI! His return will be our perpetual bad reputation as cheaters, corrupt, and liars. He is without doubt the candidate that is backed by Narcos and Corrupt Corporate World alike. And your Mexican people??!!

And if you support Ebrard, then you will give him the experience under OBRADOR to be president for sure, after Obrador. Either way, you have the best in there.

And if I do get my info from US newspapers, Mexican newsapapers, and guided by what people are saying in Facebook and Twitter... BETTER THAN LOOKING AT TELEVISA and YOUR BOUGHT OUT LOCAL NEWSPAPERS. Televisa is a shame and a cheap copy of Fox News.

You have the best of Mexico.. and the symbolical leaders of the Left that have remained HONEST! Cardenas, Obrador, Ebrard and Even Clouthier's kids! Obrador is the MLK of Politics. Mexico needs strenghtening of Democracy and its institutions, out of the 3, there is no doubt that Obrador is the choice. In 6 years of more PRI, you are officially legitimizing the continuation of the coercion and manipulation of the people in democracy. Protecting the corrupt politicians, and keeping Mexico as a Third World Country.


And if you are from PAN, well... my friend. Then you are a quitter, because they with Fox who is clearly PRI were the cause of your failure at being a subdirector in Economics. Obrador won the elections in 2006. You should have been subdirector and your life would have been different in a Mexico with justice. Obrador represents a more Just Mexico.

zerge in reply to MarcoT.

You are a physician in Connecticut, and I´m an economist in Mexico.
How would you feel if I started to make statements about medical diagnoses I have no idea about? Because that´s what you sound to me.

I voted for AMLO then, and when he lost, he revealed himself as an ABSOLUTE nutcase that put Mexico in danger with his shenanigans. And that´s why I´m not voting for him again. And thank GOD he did not win in 2006; we dodged THAT bullet.

MarcoT. in reply to zerge

If you started making comments about medical diagnoses, I would give you an intelligent and thoughtful explanation and guide you in the right direction.

So far, all I've heard from you are the "shenanigans."

Additionally, you're perhaps one of the most Americanized Mexicans I've ever met. Go vote for the guys that stole your job in '06. But don't blame it on AMLO. And I would like to correct you, AMLO dodged you.

MarcoT. in reply to zerge




zerge in reply to MarcoT.

Nobody "stole my job" in `06. AMLO lost the election because he became a radical.

And I can indeed give you a thoughtful explanation about Mexican politics. You see, the average Mexican does not like extremisms. We do not like the right wing extremism that wants to force us to go to mass and prohibit miniskirts. We don´t like left wing extremism either, with its talk about social class struggle and veiled promise of "revolution".

In 2006, AMLO started great, with solid economic proposals. But little by little his speeches became more socially polarizing. He started talking about the "business mafia". He proclaimed "to hell with their institutions!". And that´s when the silent majority started abandon him. Instead of rectifying his stance, he grew even more radical. And when he lost the elections, he lost his mind, proclaiming himself the legitimate president, and blocking for months the main avenue in Mexico City. The PRD even tried to prevent president Calderon from taking office; there was a physical struggle inside Congress. Are you aware of this?

You tell me, what would happen in the US if a losing candidate declared himself the legitimate president, and proceeded to block for months the streets of Washington DC? What would happen if the losing party physically tried to prevent the US president from taking office? Is this not sedition?

AMLO is not a mentally stable person. You are a doctor, you should be able to recognize this.

And this is why I´m not voting for him. Thank God after this election he will be gone for good. Or so we hope.

MarcoT. in reply to zerge

If I hadn't read dozens of articles of the corruption of Mexico, the Oligarchy of Mexico, and the more recent articles REMINDING EVERYONE OF FOX AND CALDERON intervention in electoral processes, FROM US and WASHINGTON DC NEWS GROUPS, I'd actually believe you. Obrador is an honest man, and he is saying the truth.

Fox tried to impeach Obrador... and the media wars created the polarization by the oligarchy, NOT OBRADOR... he was just responding to the great FALSE NEGATIVE campaigns against him.

Look, you obviously are a PRI-Ista. So, lets cut the crap. You are like them, a Pathological and Shameless liar, and you know better. So therefore, I will stop debating with you NONSENSE. Your arguments are high school level, and I doubt that you are Mexican. You want to keep rich priviliges, and You don't care about your people. You believe that a democracy should be bought with tortas and cheap materialistic orgasms. And you want to reward your vote to the people that keep Mexico in 3rd world country status.

I have lived good, and all I want is for my people south of the border to have the same oppurtunities as up here, and for them to have justice, for the violence to go away, for tens of thousands of people to have lives, and not funerals, and for the CREAM OF THE CRAP of Mexico to stand trial.

Obrador is Mexico's legitimate president. And he will always be remembered as a man of principle and with values, and OF THE PEOPLE.

Your candidate is a president that will rule for Salinas, the Narco and for the Corporate world that has given him the millions of dollars... that belong to the Mexican PEOPLE.

There is one thing that I absolutely love about Obrador and he said... "If you elect me... I will be a Guardian of your money (Mexican people)... I will not let you down."

I believe him, because I know my people, and I know you. And I know that Mexico deserves better than the people with shameless, hypocrit and cynical ideology.

What 2006 dirty media war line is next on your script... capable of persuading the weak minded, but not of a -21yr schooled man-?

Obrador is making history, he will never be forgotten for taking Mexico one step closer to a real democracy.

Go Vote for your Telenovela Stars - totally devoid of real social service and education!

YO SOY PROLE, YOSOY132!!!!!!!!!

NoGarRu in reply to zerge

And you are the reason why millions of people are not voting for EPN.
Who would give his vote to a person who has used violence against his own citizens?
I have clear who are the people following EPN... corrupt, uninformed, uneducated, drug-dealers... I am happy not to belong to this colorful group.

Anyways this time you are voting for the PRI and they will win, so now you have secured your "hueso", why to go with the losers artists, students, educated, not educated but wanting a change, when you can get something of the big pockets?


Mexico territories should abandon their 'independence' folly already.
Juan Carlos I will take you back.Ever since spanish crown gave up on your happiness lot nothing good happened to you. But I guess thats what you get for rebelling against gods king two centuries of misery and humiliation.

Trained at Harvard

A Harvard University educated, female. DO NOT AGREE WITH YOUR POINT OF VIEW THE ECONOMIST.
This man, Mr. Peña, is the least person who could govern my country Mexico. corruption, devaluations as eleven years ago, losing savings, etc will flourish . PRI, the party and most of their followers DO NOT LOVE MEXICO, they have never care for us. Simply, PIB for health, I dominate this area, should be 9% as recommended, for having and keeping good health for all the citizens on each country. In 64 years Mexico increased up to 3.8% of PIB for health....Mr. Zedillo left his administration to 4.6, and in this eleven years....it grew to 6.5. THIS PIB FOR HEALTH INCREMENTED 2.1% ON ELEVEN YEARS......VERSUS 3% INCREMENT ON SIXTY FOR YEARS GOVERNED BY PRI.....THEREFORE our best option is Mrs. Josefina, ....If she does not win, this country even with Mr. Peña or with Mr López Obrador will be a caos, and internal wars between very poor people and middle class. Beleive me, a mexican citizen who lives and work in Mexico,reads and care about my country.

zerge in reply to Trained at Harvard

I would like to point out that your level of English does not correspond to a Harvard University educated person. I don´t see how you could have passed the admissions exam.

Let me ask you something, to gauge your understanding of Mexican economics: what caused the Pesos Crisis?

Ernesto León

México is tired and sick of corruption and nepotism, but it's a real fact that the real change doesn't depend on any candidate or party, It's our duty as mexicans to make a real change, old generations are used to get benefits from government because they prefer to support a candidate instead of working or developing new solutions. Peña Nieto is a clear example of what old generation loves to hear, "Campaign Promises like a lot of benefits with less effort just for voting for him", Lopez Obrador is focused on taking advantage of the rage of some mexicans for 7 decades of corruption and nepotism by the PRI, It's truth that some of campaign promises sound really good like increase mexican PIB to 6% using an austerity plan which it's completely not congruent if we analyze the real economica situation. Jose Fina Vázquez Mota is overacting in her character of " Because I'm a woman, I'm going to save México", she's trying to show she's different but she's not proposing anything that could be really helpful except for the education reform and finally Gabriel Quadri has good ideas and our generation could be really supported but as the rest of the candidates many of this proposes as based on false statements.

So we can't GIVE UP, it's time to make a real change it's our duty as mexicans... It's time to ask, time propose...time to CHANGE.

JB Vel

The Mexico’s President has been losing power in the past 15 years. So, whoever wins the presidency may not be so important at least for the macro economy where the National Bank rules monetary policy and at least two parties have to confirm any Constitution change. But in the micro economy the monopolies reign; Mr. Pena has not made any commitment to change that, instead he and his party supports and are supported by Televisa and TV Azteca (TV broadcaster duopoly). Anyway Mexico has to prove that is a country for real and that can perform without corruption and compete against any other and deliver results that blend through the working population.


I like AMLO, sadly the corruption in Mexico is so strong (current relationship between Peña Nieto y TV Azteca is corruption) that they've closed AMLO posibility to win this election.

One man can't fight (and win) against a big Media corporation, he needs people's support.

Carlos Tremblay in reply to zerge

So I did check the corruption perception index on http://www.transparency.org/country#MEX . Mexico, in 2011, had a score of 3 out of 10 (Canada: 8.7/10) In 2011, Mexico had position 100 out of 183 (Chile had position 22/183). And you call Mexico´s level of corruption "quite average"???

With such an optimistic interpretation of numbers, no wonder you believe the PRI will improve things in Mexico...

zerge in reply to Carlos Tremblay

The average being 91.5, with Mexico at 100, it IS quite average and unremarkable.

The world is a corrupt place my friend. Mexico´s level of corruption is not really noteworthy, despite what you may believe.

Carlos Tremblay in reply to zerge

You are right, among countries about the same size as Mexico, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Russia, Philippines, Ethiopia and Vietnam are more corrupted. No reason to worry then? I wonder where such thinking will lead us?

MarcoT. in reply to zerge

Zerge, Mexico is right Next to the US and Canada. For this country to be that corrupt, is insulting. Mexico should enjoy of a corrupt free, and economic prosperity as part of North America. I also disagree that it is average, your interpretation is stupid. This is not an average of countries. It is like me saying, I have three kids, one fat one, one skinny one, and one with an average build, therefore, I average my kids to be of an average build. The country is corrupt, the Narco rules Mexico, and we have the top 5 most violent cities in Mexico.

Migalv in reply to MarcoT.

Why should Mexico enjoy corrupt free if the U.S. isn't free of corruption either? As for average it's just a commonality from looking comparison POV. Your analogy of the different builds of kids describes exactly why data can be used to anyone advantage thus everything is a theory.

I do think PRI will make a change however, I am going to be realistic knowing the mexican culture will not and thus bring little incentive to change.

This reminds me of the joke that sounds so true. About the shrimp at the local market. One pail of shrimp of Mexican shrimp is uncovered while the other pail of U.S. shrimp is covered. A man asks why is the U.S. shrimp covered and the Mexican not covered. He replies that's because the U.S. shrimp will work together and escape while the Mexican shrimp are greedy and pull each other down trying to escape.

Migalv in reply to MarcoT.

How you take out culture? It's mexican culture to do such a thing. EVERY SINGLE PARTY is disgustingly corrupt. Selfishly trying to put itself higher on the priority scale. To say one president will change everything is exactly what's wrong with it all. It's about compromise and fighting for equality. But all these parties only care about moving themselves forward not Mexico as a whole forward. Mexico will ALWAYS stay a developing country self destructing.


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