ATT+T Tmobile

Yesterday AT&T announced it was acquiring T-Mobile for $39 billion, creating the largest wireless carrier in the U.S. by far and reducing the number of major cell-phone service providers from four to three. The news has dominated the news cycle, taken telecom stocks on a roller-coaster ride, and left customers on both carriers dazed and confused. How will the merger affect mobile users in the U.S.?

Many specific questions remained unanswered, but given what AT&T has said so far, and what's happened historically with carrier mergers, there are some clues as to how the deal will impact the two carriers' combined 128 million subscribers. Here are the most important takeaways from the big news:

The deal isn't approved yet, but it probably will be.
Before the deal can go through, Congress will scrutinze it closely. Analysts expect it to be approved, however, for the simple reason that most deals of this nature simply are. You don't have to look back very far to see a host of examples of major tech-company acquisitions getting the government's official thumbs-up: the Cingular/AT&T, Comcast/NBC Universal, AOL/Time Warner, and Sprint/Nextel deals all got approval, albeit with some important caveats along the way.

How long will it take to get approval? There's no definite timetable, but based on previous deals, expect about to wait about a year for it to shake out. When that happens, the unified carrier will almost certainly fall under the sole banner of AT&T, since that brand is the oldest and most recognized, not to mention it's the buyer in this deal.

T-Mobile customers will be able to buy the iPhone… someday.
Once the two carriers emerge as one, T-Mobile customers that want a taste of Apple's iPhone will get their chance—without needing to break any contracts. Of course, that'll have to wait until the deal is approved and the carriers' networks are merged. In fact, T-Mobile reiterated today on its Web site that it remains an independent company, and that it doesn't currently offer the iPhone. But once T-Mobile disappears, that will obviously no longer apply. By that time, however, there will likely be an iPhone 5 (or 6!).

AT&T gets better 4G.
AT&T has plans to catch up with Verizon by deploying an LTE network, and has been recently snapping up spectrum in order to build it. T-Mobile, as it happens, has a big chunk of spectrum in the 1,700MHz range, called AWS, that AT&T intends to use for its 4G LTE network. The additional spectrum means AT&T will have more bandwidth for 4G phones, which will let it better compete with Verizon's freshly deployed LTE network.

T-Mobile 3G subscribers will eventually need to upgrade their phones.
AT&T getting T-Mobile's spectrum has a downside. The AWS frequencies that AT&T intends to repurpose for LTE are currently used for T-Mobile's 3G network. That means if you've recently bought a T-Mobile 3G phone, you'll probably have to replace it at some point in the future, lest you be confined to mere 2G connectivity. Again, though, this isn't something that's going to happen quickly, and AT&T CEO Ralph de la Vega has said it will happen as part of the natural upgrade cycle. Which is probably true for most customers, considering how quickly users upgrade phones these days.

T-Mobile's no-contract pay-as-you-go plans may be over.
As PCMag senior mobile analyst Sascha Segan has pointed out, T-Mobile is currently the only major provider to offer plans for phones that let you pay full price for a phone and then save big on your monthly bill. Will AT&T keep those plans under the new company? It depends on its strategy going forward, but seeing as AT&T doesn't currently offer such plans, and T-Mobile was de-emphasizing them in the first place, it seems unlikely.

Sprint customers: watch your backs.
With fourth-place T-Mobile shacking up with AT&T to become the largest mobile service provider in the country, Sprint, in a distant third place, is looking weaker than ever. There are of course smaller providers—the "micro" carriers of MetroPCS, Cricket and US Cellular—but Sprint's now in last place in all the races that matter. Accordingly, its stock price took a beating today, and now everyone is speculating about who Sprint might merge with to stay competitive. It's certainly possible that we haven't seen the last of the big carrier mergers this year, and if you're a Sprint customer, you have reason to be nervous. On the other hand, there's a chance you could get the iPhone.
