What to watch for: A user's guide to Campaign 2012

Associated Press + More

By CONNIE CASS and DONNA CASSATA, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — The political conventions behind them and three debates ahead, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney now race against the calendar toward Nov. 6.

They have two months to deploy millions of dollars in ads, catch those voters who cast ballots weeks before Election Day, and log umpteen miles in a handful of crucial states — all while worrying what surprising news or candidate slip-up might set the whole enterprise on its ear.

Obama and Romney have huge staffs to help keep it all straight, of course. But you don't. So here, for the rest of us, is a user's guide to the last leg of the 2012 presidential campaign:



So far, polls show a tight race. But forget everything you've heard so far. In polling, only the newest numbers count — and the numbers capture a clearer picture beginning in September. It's time to pay attention.

One obvious reason: Summer fun is over, and voters are finally following the campaigns. Polling from the Pew Research Center in 2008 showed the share following the campaign "very closely" just about doubled from 28 percent in late August to 57 percent just before Election Day. With the public more attuned to day-to-day developments, the potential for big shifts in the polls is amplified.


Trying to reach voters — and no one else — means trying to pin down a group that exists only for one day (or a few, in the case of early voters) and whose demographic and geographic makeup can't be known in advance. That's because more people tell pollsters they plan to vote than actually do. In the final Associated Press-GfK poll before the 2008 election, 77 percent of adults said they were "completely certain to vote" or had already cast a ballot through early or absentee voting. Actual turnout among those age 18 and over was about 20 percentage points lower.

So pollsters use a series of questions to try to identify voters who are most likely to show up and weed out the rest. Every pollster's definition of a likely voter is different; for some, they evolve over the course of the final two months.




The presidential race is expected to cost $2 billion or more, between official campaign expenses and super PAC ad spending. It's the first election since federal courts unraveled rules that had restricted how money could be spent in political races.



Something to watch for: In some states, the TV ads may suddenly vanish. That's a sign that one of the campaigns has given up hope there and moved resources to a state that's still in play.

And watch how this plays out: Romney's side is far outspending Obama's. Can the president narrow the gap?


No one will know the total spending until after the voting is over. That's because the last campaign money reports before Election Day cover only through mid-October.






Romney immediately seized on the latest numbers as further evidence that Obama's efforts to fix the economy have failed. The president said the numbers weren't good enough but sought more time for the recovery.


Also watch the Federal Reserve's actions when it meets next week. It could dramatically boost the sluggish economy by announcing a third round of bond purchases designed to push long-term interest rates lower. Fed action would send the stock market soaring and boost many people's retirement accounts, at least in the short term.




Issues that might spill into the presidential race: disagreements over drought relief for livestock producers — an issue important to rural voters in swing state Iowa and elsewhere — and an increase in food stamp funding, which Republicans oppose.




—The first debate, Oct. 3 in Denver, focuses on domestic policy.




With debates, it's important to watch as well as listen. Despite hours of study and practice to get their best lines down pat, it's sometimes actions, not words that prove memorable. Remember 1960, when people listening on the radio were certain Richard Nixon had won a debate, while those watching TV awarded it squarely to John F. Kennedy.

In 2000, Democrat Al Gore's sighs lived on long after his words in his debates with Republican George W. Bush. Eight years earlier, Bush's father, President George H.W. Bush, was caught looking at his watch during a town-hall debate with Democrat Bill Clinton and Ross Perot.





—Battleground state: States where one or both sides are spending money on TV ads, staff on the ground, candidate visits and so forth, either in hopes of winning or to force the other side to spend money playing defense. So far this year, that's all the swing states, plus Wisconsin. Pennsylvania and Michigan also have seen action.

—Super PAC: A new breed of political committee that can raise and spend limitless amounts of money but isn't allowed to directly coordinate its activities with the Romney or Obama campaigns. The candidates can endorse these committees, however, and send former aides to run them.

—Electoral College: Candidates win the presidency not by winning the popular vote, but by getting a majority of votes in the Electoral College. States are apportioned votes based on the number of senators and representatives they have in Congress, and all but two — Maine and Nebraska — award their electoral votes in winner-take-all style.




His campaign mobilized thousands in the swing states of Florida, Colorado, North Carolina and Iowa — all states he won on his way to the presidency.





OK, it could come in early November, too. But watch for unexpected news in the final weeks of the race that could shift things in one candidate's favor. Past surprises have touched on major events — developments in the Vietnam War, the Iran hostage crisis, the Iran-Contra probe — and less weighty ones, such as George W. Bush's two-decade-old drunken driving arrest.

This year, there's speculation that Iran could pop up again, possibly in the form of an Israeli military strike against Iran's suspected nuclear program. Iran insists it's not developing a nuclear weapon; Israel believes that it is.

A unilateral Israeli attack on Iran could set off a chain reaction. Tehran's counterattack could include strikes on U.S. personnel and bases in the region; the U.S. military might come to Israel's aid; oil prices would skyrocket; spreading conflict could light the short fuse that is the Middle East.


But speculating on an October Surprise can be a fool's game — that's why it's called a surprise. Wait and see.


Associated Press writers Martin Crutsinger, Andrew Taylor, Jennifer Agiesta, Tom Raum, Jack Gillum and Stephen Ohlemacher contributed to this report.
