Eyes of the world riveted on North Korean missile

What, precisely, does the nation's mercurial leader, Kim Yong-il, have in mind? No one knows - but everyone is deeply worried.

Understandably, last week's word that North Korea is in the process of preparing a long-range missile for test firing (presumably without a warhead, though with North Korea you can never take anything for granted) was a shocker.

It has in fact rattled not only the immediate neighbors of North Korea, but the international community as a whole. And how could it be otherwise?

The fact that North Korea is believed to have a number - no one is sure how many - of nuclear weapons would be disconcerting in any case. Each time the nuclear club gains a new member, the world becomes a significantly more dangerous place.

But even in that context, North Korea, is a very, very special case. It is, after all, the lone surviving Stalinist nation on the face of the earth, and its ruler, Kim Yong-il, is at once flaky and deeply scary. Holding absolute power, and surrounded by a coterie of lackies, thugs and lickspittles, he is cruel, mercurial and quite possibly unhinged.

For reasons known best - indeed, only - to them, the North Koreans seem determined to fire their intercontinental ballistic missile. The idea is that it would be a test flight; then again, with this outfit, you never really know.

All of this has done more than inspire jitters in the neighborhood (and elsewhere: reportedly, the missile could reach portions of the United States). It has also re-ignited the continuing debate on the Bush administration's commitment to, and belief in, a missile defense shield.

Reportedly, the Pentagon ordered that system into operational mode after learning of the North Koreans' latest gambit. The Bush administration, reasonably enough, warned that such a launch would be "a provocative act," and set in motion a sweeping diplomatic campaign to convince Pyongyang that Washington is in dead earnest.

Certainly, there is a lot riding on this slowly intensifying confrontation - but the president and his advisers need to choose their moves cautiously. Already, some observers (not necessarily friendly to the administration) have pointed out that a failed effort to shoot down a North Korean missile could have a profoundly damaging impact, both on the international stage and at home, where it could further erode support for the program.

Certainly, the best of all possible resolutions would be for the North Koreans to sober up and stand down . . . but given the demonstrated nuttiness of Kim Yong-il and his cohorts, that may be a forlorn hope. Some tricky, and scary, going lies ahead.