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General Martin Dempsey

Bluff and bombast: US rebuke surprises Israel

Jerusalem, September 4, 2012

By Crispian Balmer


Stunned by a rebuke from the US' top general, Israel is preparing a climbdown strategy in its war of words over Iran's nuclear programme, aware that its room for manoeuvre is shrinking rapidly.
Anxious to prevent any flare-up in the Middle East ahead of November elections, there is also a good chance that US President Barak Obama will provide Israel with enough cover to avoid a loss of face, analysts say.
Convinced Iran is seeking the atomic bomb, Israeli leaders have warned of a possible Holocaust if Tehran is not stopped; but the sabre-rattling clearly riled Washington, while failing to rally domestic public opinion behind a perilous war.
In a move that dismayed Israeli ministers, US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, told reporters in Britain last week that the US did not want to be "complicit" in an Israeli attack on Iran.
"Israeli leaders cannot do anything in the face of a very explicit 'no' from the US president. So they are exploring what space they have left to operate," said Giora Eiland, who served as national security adviser from 2003 to 2006.
Pointing to a possible way out, Netanyahu has since said that more explicit international warnings could prevent war, indicating he wanted the US to provide Tehran with unambiguous options to halt its nuclear activity or face war.
"The greater the resolve and the clearer the red line, the less likely we'll have conflict," he said on Monday.
Positions are likely to be clarified at an expected meeting late this month between US President Barack Obama and Netanyahu when the Israeli leader addresses the UN General Assembly in New York.
"That will be a crucial encounter. They will have to reach an understanding there. At the end of the day, you do reach an understanding, always," said Eiland, who had numerous dealings with Washington during his time as national security adviser.
On Monday, his Democratic Party released its election platform, saying the window for diplomacy would not remain open "indefinitely" and explicitly raised the threat of "military force" if Iran did not "live up to its obligations".
The programme appeared to be more toughly worded than public declarations from Obama, but it is not politically binding. An official within the prime minister's office said Israel wanted to hear cast iron commitments from Obama's own mouth.
"We want to hear a concrete declaration from the president, not vague promises that he will guarantee Israeli security," the official said, declining to be named.
Netanyahu met the heads of Israel's intelligence community on Tuesday for an annual briefing to the security cabinet, where they were expected to present their latest assessments on Iran and the situation in southern Lebanon, amongst other things.
The leader of Lebanon's Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah said on Monday Iran could hit US bases in the Middle East in response to any Israeli attack on its nuclear sites.
Talking to 100fm radio on Friday, he said Hezbollah had some 60,000 missiles and rockets, but that Israel had a much bigger arsenal. "Therefore, they need to understand that if they fire rockets and missiles, Hezbollah will pay a heavy price and the state of Lebanon will pay a heavy price until they stop."
Civilians are also being readied for possible bloodshed, with the military issuing a booklet last week on how to deal with possible emergency, and lines forming at distribution centres across the country for free gas masks.
Despite all the obvious activity, it is hard to shake off a sense of scepticism. Although Israel is believed to have the region's only nuclear arsenal, it lacks the sort of conventional firepower pundits believe is necessary to put a serious dent in Iran's far-flung, well-defended atomic installations.

Tags: | Iran | Israel | war |

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