Sanctions and Iran

Beleaguered but still unbowed

Despite all the sabre-rattling, neither Iran nor America wants confrontation just yet

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Readers' comments




If Israel wants to bomb Iran, it is most welcome. But Israel should not use the USA to do it's dirty work. The US's reputation has already been damaged by invading Iraq on spurious "intelligence" of WMD, to attack Iran now at Israel's request would be foolish: what if the nukes don't exist? The US has been here before, don't we ever learn?

The 'Israel Firsters' in the US media and government will be lobbying for the US to lead such an attack, but Israel should not rely on the US to pull it's chestnuts out of the fire when the entire Middle East explodes as a result. I can only hope Ron Paul gets the Republican nomination, he is the only one who talks any sense in this regard.


The correct name for the body of water shown on the map is the PERSIAN Gulf. The Economist's editors should demonstrate that they have respect for historical facts before being taken seriously at least by Iranians.

Aly-Khan Satchu

Iran is a Geopolitical Black Swan in a way that Iraq circa Saddam Hussein, Afghanistan circa the Taliban and Libya circa Muammar Gaddafi never were. It is impossible to model the Outcomes, the Day After a Strike. Iran has plenty of Strategic Depth. The Deafening Silence about Qatif and the Eastern Province does not make the burgeoning Insurrection less real, it just makes it another Shah of Iran, Peacock Throne Gig, where we missed every Signal until the Shah was gone in a Puff of Smoke. The Situation in Bahrain has not been snuffed out. The Maliki Government might well be more of an Iranian Asset than a US one and this was entirely a predictable Consequence of seeking the Ouster of Saddam and then a Democratic Dispensation. It was the right thing to do but the End Result was always going to be Iran filling up the Vacuum. Hezbollah are no Push Over either as the IDF have discovered severally. Bashar Assad's Syria is certainly looking a lot more confident. The Currency Wars and Assassinations [which signal a much more sophisticated c21st White House] only make the Iranians rally behind their Flag and their Regime.

We the West have taken a Sectarian Position. We are standing by the Sunni Petro Monarchies. And They are betting that Bullets and Cash can stop the Lilliputians. They have snatched a short Term Phyrric Victory but This Near Term Tactical Win is sowing the seeds of their Long Term Defeat and Demise. Thats as plain as Day.

The c21st belongs to the Crowd. its about giving every citizen a Fair shake of the Dice. Its about creating Opportunity and giving everyone a Stake in the Game.

This is an Election Year in the US and the President is in the habit of winning them. The AIPAC Lobby and Bibi Netanyahu, therefore, exert maximum Leverage over him in the Run Up to that Election. And the sheer number of high Level Visits to israel confirm that the decision around Iran is being made not in Washington but in Tel Aviv.

Therefore, I am not as sanguine as You.

Aly-Khan Satchu


Nothing short of Iran handling control of its oil production to the Western majors like Exxon-Mobil, BP, Shell etc. will they ever satisfy the Hegemon. As Russia has predicted, the case for the Anglo invasion is being co-opted using the Western Media.


The challenge with Iran is the fact that no one - not even those living in the country, let alone foreign governments and western powers - have a clear and sound understanding of what is happening in the country. No one really has the full picture of the various alliances, allegiances and the moving parts. No one really knows how bad is the economic situation and no one really has a clear picture of the depth and breadth of the country's nuclear programme.
More sanctions will not make a dent in the government. They will further damage the precarious living conditions of the Iranian people. If the west thinks that by doing so, there will be an Iranian awakening, they may be very disappointed.
What ever happened to the Green movement? It is history. Will there be another Green movement? Not sure.
There has to be a concerted effort to understand Iranian politics, understand what is REALLY going on in the country. This cannot be done by talking with the diaspora, but with real people living in the country.
The challenge is to break through the tightly vacuum packed package called Iran to finally see and taste its contents!

Connect The Dots

Iran wants to carry an insurgency into the sea.

The good news for the West is that terrorist do not know how to swim. And unlike land IEDs, there is no cheap way for the motivated guerrilla bomber with neolithic skills. Maritime climate is its own challenges.

And despite 10 years of war, the US Navy and Air Force have sustained casualties no different than peacetime. No ships sunk. No planes downed by enemy fire in Afghanistan. Air and Sea Supremacy 24/7. And much of the hardware in theater due to the active wars. And pilots are battle tested veterans. And maps have been memorized by daily patrols.

The US Navy is intact and itching for a fight

And now there is added Drone strike fleets and missiles that can hit an evading motorcycle.

Rabid suicide bombers cannot swim 50m less they drown.

After the Arab Spring, Iran's best hope for regime survival and counter strike is the Nuclear Option. That was their lesson from the downfall of Qaadafi and the survival of Kim Jong-Eun.

Pray that the TwitteRevolution comes before then.


"The sanctions, which were partly prompted by the most recent report, in November, of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s watchdog, are not, however, the only reason for Iran’s ire."

Holy commas Batman!

RumbaClave in reply to golum991

One of the few merits of the Wikileaks project is that it puts the obvious and already well-known on the front pages. Take Iran and its nuclear program, for example. Everybody who takes an interest in such matters and is not blinded by hatred of Jews running their own affairs knows that most Arab states are far more worried about the nuclear ambitions of the ayatollahs than they are about Israel and would be quietly pleased if the US and/or Israel put an end to them using whatever means necessary.

To nobody’s great surprise, the stolen American diplomatic cables released by Julian Assange reveal that the King of Saudi Arabia has

frequently exhorted the US to attack Iran to put an end to its nuclear weapons programme…


Officials in Jordan and Bahrain have openly called for Iran’s nuclear programme to be stopped by any means, including military.

Leaders in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates confined themselves to referring to Iran as,

“evil”, an “existential threat” and a power that “is going to take us to war”.


The Iranians will avoid a casus belli, and have no interest in actually blocking the Straits as this would also impoverish them, and inconvenience their current main customer China.

That said when the chips are down they have circa 3000 Russian shore to ship missiles designed to take out US military ships, so hitting a tanker and closing the Straits would be like shooting fish in a barrel.

So: if the US invades or Israel launches an attack, then the Straits will be closed for several months.

No doubt there are poker players in Washington, Tel Aviv and Tehran working out their chances.

Israel is the wild card and they probably have Washington really worried. Netanyahu's government are hazardeurs, and Israel has already lost the long term chess game without a dramatic change in circumstances.

Israel probably calculates that it will survive a conflict which it initiates now, with a sub-nuclear Iran and the US on its side, while in say 10 years with a possibly nuclear armed Iran, a fading US with volatile domestic politics and an ever more powerful China it will be sucking the fuzzy end of the lollipop.

And in the UK and the US a false flag attack on a US warship and a nice war might be a considered a good solution to a lot of geopolitical and economic problems by the 1% who will still be eating their breakfast in safety and comfort no matter what happens. There will be no radioactive fallout in Long Island or the Cotswolds...probably.!!

RumbaClave in reply to HP70

But they influence Lebanon heavily thru Hezbollah and Gaza thru Hamas. If you arm a political party that takes over a country is that not Imperialism ? Without IRAN, Hezbollah would implode and Hamas would be severely weakened.



1- US and Russia create an international bank for Low Enriched Uranium (LEU).

2- Iran is allowed to produce as much LEU as it desires on the condition that it sells its stock of LEU in excess of one ton to the LEU-bank.

3- Iran is guaranteed unlimited purchase of LEU fuel-rods for its nuclear power stations and research reactors.

The above formula should satisfy both the West and Iran:

Iran will continue its pursuit of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes unhindered; and at no point in time will have enough LEU to enrich further to build a bomb.


Nowadays a spy or agent working for foreign governments can easily stick a plastic bomb onto the car of a target and then ride off into the busy street.


As painfully frustrating as it probably is, I don't think there is any recourse besides diplomacy here. Nukes and irrational religious and nationalistic fervor make for a potentially nasty cocktail.

The IAEA needs to go back in there and provide the West with convincing evidence that the Iranians are not building a militarized nuclear program. The inherent problem with this, as has always been the case, is that while it is easy to prove the existence of something, it is nearly impossible to prove the absence of something...

The Israeli's will not be satisfied until their suspicions are confirmed. They aren't really looking for proof otherwise.


The Iranian influences is gaining in the middle-east. What the Hegemon is trying to do now is to fight poison using poison by support Sunni bros against Shiite theocrats.


Obama will do nothing until its too late. The U.S. has the weakest, worst possible incompetent sitting in the White House at such a dangerous time, and we will all pay dearly for it!


The Economist should know better than to claim Iran is anywhere close to enriching weapons grade Uranium. The article references the head or Iran's Atomic Organization who says that Iran has begun enriching uranium to 20% purity. Weapons grade uranium requires uranium enriched to at least 90%, and the leap from 20% purity to 90% is no easy feat - Iran will likely need to invest years into research and spend billions of dollars to get there.

Iran's attempts to trump the International Atomic Energy Agency (IEAE) are inexcusable, and I fully support sanctions and diplomatic efforts to persuade Iran to co-operate with the international community. However, claims that Iran is close to a weapon are vague and not supported by the facts. Such speculative claims only serve to add fuel to a fire for the case of military action - what is required is a heavy dousing. The speculative weapons of mass destruction that were the justification for the Iraq war proved to be illusive. Military action against Iran would be a disaster for the U.S, Israel, Iran and the World. A little less carelessness with words, and more honest reporting will go a long way towards avoiding an unnecessary Iraq type blunder.


You said: "They have snatched a short Term Pyrrhic Victory but … The c21st belongs … giving every citizen a Fair shake of the Dice."

Is that what the 21st C will be about? If so … the Islamic World is going to be disappointed!

The American Project … remaining the sole Superpower on Planet Earth … will not be maintained in the 21st C … that's clear but they will STILL remain a Superpower … with enough power to squash Iran's ambition to become a nuclear power and dominate the Arab/Muslim ME.

The idea that NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION can be allowed to continue into the 21st C is absurd. The planet is getting smaller … there's enough dangers without adding accelerant to the volatile mixture that is the Arab/Muslim ME … a zone in transition … which will remain a backwater of restive populations seeking answers in all the wrong places!

The future is about to land on the Mullah/IRGC … their population currently in chains are ready to move into the 21st C without the Mullahs/IRGC on their backs … the Persians are a proud intelligent people who have made contributions to World Culture in the past and will make MORE in the future … a future WITHOUT the Mullahs/IRGC … these ‘baddies’ have got to go … their corrupt leadership MUST end and it will be triggered by an end to the NUKE PROJECT … ‘no ifs ands or buts’ …



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