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Is JPY About To Get The 'Gold' Treatment?

Tyler Durden's picture


Overnight a number of media types discussed the inevitability of the 100JPY Maginot Line being crossed (the same way they predicted the inevitable breach of USDJPY 100 two weeks ago). It appears a combination of over-size positioning, options barriers, and economic reality has reduced demand for the JPY cross as a carry trade this morning and after testing 99.98 overnight, JPY is crashing higher since the open of the US equity market. It seems while the G-20 closed its eyes and held its nose, the 'market' is not quite so willing.



just like was 2 weeks ago...


Why should you care about JPY? Because in this 'market' it's all that matters...


Charts: Bloomberg


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Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:37 | 3483658 A_Dog
A_Dog's picture

I hope so, want to rebuy at $78

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:38 | 3483662 Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

Something is wrong, we must all go out and spend money!

The more stitches the less riches, bitches!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:44 | 3483697 SWRichmond
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- Hermann Goering, September 1939

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:46 | 3483704 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

Bit¥, bitchez!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:57 | 3483737 hedgeless_horseman
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Is JPY About To Get The 'Gold' Treatment?

No, but the DXY sure as hell is.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:56 | 3483740 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

So can I buy a new digital camera for 25% less now.  If not, then Japan failed, or at least maybe they succeeded in pushing up import prices for their resource deprived country, surely that will create millions of jobs.  I'm sure someone with a Ph D thought this all through before hand.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:07 | 3483779 hedgeless_horseman
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Hardly anyone buys a camera anymore, because the phones take such good pics.  Only unemployed-wannabe photojournalists or pedophile-senior-picture photographers carry a camera.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:24 | 3483842 Scro
Scro's picture

Phone cameras suck, unless you post to FB or whatever.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:42 | 3483925 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

Yup, unfortunately, cameras suck, too.  No more optical viewfinders in the lower priced cameras....useless in bright light.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 12:24 | 3484094 A_Dog
A_Dog's picture

Google: Nokia Lumia 920, it has best low light camera ever with OIS and PureView 808 (replacement coming in July with Windows Phone 8), 41 mpx, bitheczzzz

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 23:35 | 3486625 akak
akak's picture

HH, I could equally retort that only trend-sucking, self-important, self-indulgent, terminally short-term-thinking and short-term-acting overgrown teenagers carry cell phones.

Face it, all you neurotic twits obsessed with your latest e-gadget: you are NOT that important!  But have fun paying hundreds or thousands of dollars per year in order to be tweeted and tooted and texted about your friend's latest bowel movement or your girlfriend's tragically broken finger nail --- all while being tracked and monitored in minute detail by Big Brother, courtesy of his new Utah facility.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:16 | 3483812 css1971
css1971's picture

41 megapixel phone camera:

More importantly it's sensor is monstrously large.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:28 | 3483858 Scro
Scro's picture

Massive MP = 24" rims on a Monte Carlo = useless.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:06 | 3483742 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Japan has been warned about its stingy monteray policy by economists all over the world. Now I hope the consequences of hawkish monetary policy are clear for all to see. Japan could have ended it's economic slowdown a long time ago. But instead they chose a path of frugal and pathetic monetary policy; with easing that was simply insufficient for an economy hungry for stimulus.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:07 | 3483780 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture


Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:23 | 3483836 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Silly rabbit...who said anything about Japan's economy getting better...this is solely a play on nominal asset values.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:47 | 3483947 RebelDevil
RebelDevil's picture

The world economy would have recovered as a whole if the people of the world chose to support cheap alternative energy technologies and reformation of the financial system.

They chose to instead support greed.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 23:17 | 3486604 thisandthat
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You need to clarify which cheap alternative energy technologies are those, you refer to - wind/solar/rainbow unicorn farts are out of the equation...

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:29 | 3483870 BeetleBailey
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Mon, 04/22/2013 - 22:51 | 3486513 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Clearly Japan needs to use freshly printed yen to build 200-story radiation-breathing robots that also print money out their poopers. It's time to get SERIOUS about monetizing instead of this dribble-drabble of free yen.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:58 | 3483747 rehypothecator
rehypothecator's picture

I don't understand the point of this article.  It's not like this is the first time in history a large, round number served as imporant resistance for something to break through.  So the Yen has tried and failed twice to cross 100.  Are we supposed to draw important conclusions about this?  

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:40 | 3483670 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Dollar powerrrrrr, bitchez!!!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:39 | 3483671 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This one makes my head explode.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:54 | 3483732 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I remember the good ole days when all you had to do was watch EURUSD to see where the market was going. Things get so complicated!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:12 | 3483801 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

so the yen at 100....does that mean it equals 1 us penny, and not the 82's but the current penny?

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:18 | 3483819 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Yes, Yen at 100 means one Yen equals one penny.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:23 | 3483840 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

England has pennies, the US has cents.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:31 | 3483878 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i dont believe the u.s has any sense......

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:45 | 3483943 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

I'm from Canada.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 19:51 | 3485951 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

So, you're centsless then...

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:39 | 3483672 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture


and just like gold, when the public refuses to jump in and buy this tissue paper, well, we'll see the yen destroyed over the next couple of months. 


funny thing about the gold/silver situation....bernanke seems to have made a bad situation (potential failure of the Comex, LBME) catastrophically worse. the gold/silver rush on now worldwide is quite something to see. 


guess people aren't quite as dumb as Ben assumes them to be. 

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:47 | 3483703 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

They were guessing by dropping the price that much that people would panic and start selling their Physical Gold. BAD GUESS you dumb fucks.

Wondering if that meeting last week was called by the Banksters and NOT Obama.  "Barack we are almost out of Gold. We would really like your permission to hammer the living shit out of it in a last ditch effort to save our asses. But we need you to tell all the regulators to look the other way. Thanks! And remember free golf for you. And you get the hang out with all us cool people."

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:52 | 3483723 unwashedmass
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don't forget, he gets a job on the Goldman board in a couple of years as well. 

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:07 | 3483753 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Come on, at least they did get panic in the PM market. The panic was for everyone to head to getting the actual phyzzz.

I bet the same bankster bastards got long bitcoins around 250 or so....dumb fucks

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:23 | 3483839 Manthong
Manthong's picture

that meeting was probably originated by some quant.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:59 | 3483745 GVB
GVB's picture

+1 for sarcasm and humour. Which is just part of the reason why I scroll these comments;

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:22 | 3483829 realitybiter
realitybiter's picture

......"and it is the usual deal....we will give you a million in campaign contributions for every billion we can carve out.  we cool?  cool.  <chuckle>  (dimon leans over to weasel Lloyd) "can you believe how f-ing stupid his supporters are?  we launder drug money, rig markets -draining their pensions, get PAID to administer their food stamps (hahahaha), and these jackasses STILL adore him.  guys a freaking genius.  He should have been a bond salesman."

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:21 | 3483830 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

If Obama plays golf like he plays basketball, it's a f*cking miracle he's off the course before dark.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 12:20 | 3484087 Pareto
Pareto's picture

oh fuck man!!!!  +100  wiping coffee off the screen......again!

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 12:26 | 3484108 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

I'm still marvelling at what a terrific gift that was.  Christmas came early.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 13:29 | 3484431 BigJim
BigJim's picture


I was reading Detlev Schlichter's Excellent Paper Money Collapse the other day and reflecting on this, the 'exchange value of a good as money'. One of the principal objections your average idiot has about using gold as money is that 'the price is too volatile', and these COMEX raids reinforce this belief... and reinforce the sheep's belief in the wealth-preserving power of... fiat.

I think they'll be in for a rude surprise. Eventually. But the turning of the tide in this war depends cheifly on the psychoogy of the participants; we might be able to see the COMEX raid was stupid, but it may have bought them time via entrenchment of the 'sturdiness' of fiat in the average boob's psyche.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:48 | 3483708 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

You can always rely on Central Planners to be arrogant and incompetent.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:04 | 3483771 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

From 1934 to 1967, gold was kept right around $35. Then in 1967-1968, all hell broke loose. The manipulation of the COMEX put a defense area around $350 and then in around 2006, all hell broke loose. Once the COMEX fails. Once it closes its windows on delivery, I'm not sure if the powers that be have another line of defense for suppressing the price of gold.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:10 | 3483791 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

When did this rush happen? A rush is when I can sell the gold I bought in 2004 to a shoeshine boy racing off the cliff with the lemmings. A rush is when walmart shoppers are selling FRN's for gold and getting ripped off by fake gold con men.

Right now is still just a sliver of the population taking advantage of a decent price that they know will work its way back up again.

If you have time, watch this video about Dawson in 1898.

I was in the Yukon at the headwaters of the Klondyke this past summer and I can tell you the land up there is beautiful and merciless. A rush is when people sell their life savings and risk their lives, not when they take a bit of their extra cash and buy some jewelery when there is a price dip.

Wait for it.


Mon, 04/22/2013 - 22:54 | 3486522 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

that day is never coming. Shoeshine boys are wondering if they should start working beside hookers & have no money left over nor concept of savings which would lead them to gold or silver. It’s not an iCrap and that’s that. “this time things are different” in one particular way: people are so incredibly dumb, today about investing and saving, you need not worry which mistake they’ll make running into a bubble, they will run up debt and run into starvation first, combined with sheer Idiocracy

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:42 | 3483686 combatsnoopy
combatsnoopy's picture

I am the wannabe Mrs. Wasabi Wantanabi Obi Wan Kenobi. 

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:44 | 3483689 pagan
pagan's picture

This is really saying something... The Japanese has embarked on a massive QE program and the Yen is getting stonger.

Strong deflationary forces.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:49 | 3483712 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Strong deflationary forces." - Not quite, look at food, fuel, and other commodity costs in Yen.  This is purely a decoupling of eCONomics from fucking reality.  Most people live in the real world, their lives have real fucking inputs.  The fruadulent game in the "official" market is now being recognized for what it is, a fraud.  Go long black markets, sharecropping and a dependable tribe.  History is clear on what happens next.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:59 | 3483744 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

All you really need to know is how many people are short Yen because that's the sure-fired position.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:08 | 3483691 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Are we witnessing a Nervous Breakdown?


I'm about
To have a nervous breakdown
My head really hurts
If I don't find a way out of here
I'm gonna go berserk ''cause
I'm crazy and I'm hurt
Head on my shoulders
It's going...berserk

Black Flag

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:22 | 3483838 BandGap
BandGap's picture

My girlfriend asked me which one I liked better


I hope my answer doesn't upset her


Fuck it, make it a case.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 19:57 | 3485982 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"On our first trip I tried so hard to re-arrange your mind.

But after awhile I realized you were disarranging mine!

Ya better stop, and look around...

Here comes your 19th nervous breakdown!" -- Rolling Stones

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:43 | 3483692 combatsnoopy
combatsnoopy's picture

Australia is not in a recession.  Poseurs.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:48 | 3483707 new game
new game's picture

say what, you say...

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:49 | 3483713 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It's funny to watch these div paying stocks jump up everytime the market tries to sell off.  

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 13:07 | 3484315 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Indeed.  Companies who return cash are merely reflecting that there is no actual growth left to pick up, and are being rewarded for this realization.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:51 | 3483725 ableman28
ableman28's picture

Its really worth noting that central banks can manipulate their currency most effectively inside their borders.  But they have much less control on the aribitrage of large position traders of currency.  The exchange rate between major currencies remains one of the least controlled markets, although these days its a relative thing.  So, while traders can't do a beatdown on Treasury bonds in the US because the Fed is buying so many they sure can do a beat down on the Yen.  And, for all the worst effects of the Euro if the Euro didn't exist the currencies of many European countries would be verging on worthless.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:54 | 3483733 tecno242
tecno242's picture

Some props dropped their hat in the fire and now they are trying to reach back in a grab it... dummies.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 10:58 | 3483741 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

Would be suprising if all the sudden the market actually cared about anything.  So far even shit earnings from big components is discarded - they focus on the good only.  We had our token 4pt sell on ES negative in the first hour - it should be all uphill from here for the rest of the day.  Most days the lows are hit in the first 90 min - bounce does not retest at all.  You can average short all you want but you will never make anything.  It should change soon but its been so long I do not remember what real market action looks like ...

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:14 | 3483807 adr
adr's picture

Just imagine how much the R&D from Solyndra and Fisker will add to GDP.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:07 | 3483777 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"If at first don't don't succeed try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try again." - Ben S Bernanke

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:08 | 3483783 risk-reward
risk-reward's picture

Last time I was in Japan (yeah, its been quite a while)  the yen was 360 to the dollar and stayed that way for years.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:25 | 3483809 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Japan simply needs to affirm who they really are, the 51st state.  Adopt the dollar, and let the Bernanke crush it.  Bringing the Yen to the 360 level now would make survival (using Yen to purchase food and fuel) impossible.  Japan is done, nothing left to steal of real value, they need to become part of the global theft now (read, bankers making another case for global currency - all by design folks).

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:10 | 3483788 css1971
css1971's picture

Green in 20 minutes.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:10 | 3483798 adr
adr's picture

My suppliers in Japan are begging me to buy right now. They hope to sell something to me that was produced for 12,000 Yen per unit for dollars that can be converted into 14,000 yen per unit a short time later.

When the Yen strengthens they hold supplies until it looks like the currency will weaken.

It is really hurting my business because I have no idea what my components are going to cost or when I can get them. Although I haven't actually seen a decrease in component costs with the drop from 80 Yen per dollar to 90. I think the drop happened too fast for suppliers to adjust.

120 yen per dollar would be great for me. The rise from 120 to the 80 range killed my margins.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:11 | 3483802 DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

Not too worry.  New York taking out some stops.  Asimo is at the printing press and Japan's self-immolation will continue at pace.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:27 | 3483853 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Chandler 1...Krasting Zero.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 11:50 | 3483957 RebelDevil
RebelDevil's picture

I find the last chart enlightening. JPY and the S&P are tied together.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 12:07 | 3484029 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

Chalk another one up for the market.

Make low in first 90 min, then go all in on massive push higher on low volume.  Same pattern most days.  So far we are 9 pts off lows on ES and likely to just keep pushing. Once they do the turn off the lows there is very little chance of any selling returning.  Push, hold, push hold.  Create a token 2pt flush down to suck in shorts - bid and hold then go some more.  

Likely target is taking out the overnight highs above 55 area.  Next stop would be 65-70 tomorrow (after nice 5pt overnight gap) for 85% retrace of recent sell - basically get rid of all of it.

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 12:35 | 3484148 Pedantic Rube
Pedantic Rube's picture

Just like gold was testing $1k from 08-09......

Mon, 04/22/2013 - 14:45 | 3484847 GoinFawr
Mon, 04/22/2013 - 21:47 | 3486302 Youri Carma
Mon, 04/22/2013 - 22:11 | 3486370 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

TIP for Visiting Tokyo:  Go to Roponggi - go to the bar Gas Panic - there are plenty of hot Japanese uni girls who hang there in search of westerners.  Unless you are a fat bald slob (in that case go to Bangkok or Pattaya and just bite the bullet and pay for play) your odds of scoring a one nighter are at least 50-50.
