Jakarta dispatch

Weathering the storm

America may be worried about anti-US protesters in Indonesia, writes John Aglionby, but for now bad weather is keeping them at bay
"Look Mister, it's like this. You don't really need to worry even though you are British," my taxi driver explained as he took me to the American embassy to monitor the latest anti-US and Britain demonstration.

"You can tell these 'fanatics' aren't serious. They might say they're not afraid of the police bullets but you can see for yourself that they're scared of the rain."

He was right. The heavens were just starting to open over central Jakarta by the time we reached the embassy compound, which has been turned into a razor wire-ringed fortress guarded by more than 500 riot police. What was once an angry stick-wielding and flag-tearing mob of more than 500 radicals had been reduced to a bedraggled and miserable-looking rump of a few dozen students.

This little snapshot encapsulates the current state of the opposition in Indonesia to the strikes in Afghanistan. Yes, there is a threat that has to be taken seriously, and yes, it is impossible to predict what might happen more than a day in advance.

But the bottom line is that the radical Islamist groups are nothing more than fringe elements that do not command the active support of the vast majority of Indonesia's 175m Muslims.

"Until we see another zero or two on the number of people demonstrating, the situation is still very much under control," a western diplomat said.

Moreover, in the last four days the authorities, from the president through the cabinet to the police officers on the ground, have crystallised into a unified voice, the likes of which has not been seen since the collapse of the Suharto regime in May 1998. In the past, leaders of Islamist groups have been granted audiences with the vice president. Now they only get to see the Jakarta police headquarters interrogation room.

This afternoon the police said they were going to charge the leader of the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI), Habib Rizziq, for inciting hatred and violence, as he has refused to withdraw his threat to "sweep" Indonesia of Americans and Britons.

And while the American government might be worried about the threat posed by Indonesian groups such as Laskar Jihad, FPI and Darul Islam and the Philippines' Abu Sayyaf, which all have or claim to have Al-Qaida links, these organisations are nothing like the forces they are being likened to in Afghanistan and the Middle East. The Indonesians' brand of "terrorism" is much more nationalist oriented in that they confine their activities to the sprawling archipelago.

A western diplomat who has recently returned from the eastern Molucca islands - where Laskar Jihad has been fighting Christians for more than two years - said the Muslim fighters appeared just as concerned with crushing a perceived separatist threat as waging a holy war. Similarly, the Abu Sayyaf have never exported their brand of kidnap-for-ransom terrorism.

This does not mean that the region's Islamists should be dismissed, particularly as their nationalist streak could well become a rallying call against American plans to make their second target in the fight against terrorism in south-east Asia.

At present the conflict is still thousands of miles away. But it will only take a little more sabre-rattling from Uncle Sam against south-east Asian terrorists to rally the troops on the ground. Elements of the media are already hinting that an American invasion is possible.

More worrying would be if Indonesia's mass Islamic organisations - with tens of millions of members - take umbrage at the latest American strategy. They could easily rethink their current policy of backing the government and distancing themselves from the demonstrations.

Such a scenario is unlikely in the immediate future, but with the situation changing by the day, it might not be long before people are brave enough to struggle on through the rainstorms.

Related articles
11.10.2001: Indonesian extremists threaten US and British citizens
11.10.2001: US may turn attention to far east terror groups

11.10.2001, John Aglionby: Indonesia cracks down on protesters (2mins 40)


Other articles
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