When Will Your Windows Phone Get Mango?

Microsoft's Windows Phone OS hasn't made much of a splash in 2011. Although it's gotten relentlessly positive reviews and has phones available on all four major carriers, it managed to achieve just 1.5 percent market share in the third quarter of 2011, according to Gartner.

That's led to considerable hand-wringing among tech analysts, who are trying to figure out why a product that is pretty good, backed by a very powerful company, simply won't sell. In steps Charlie Kindel, a 21-year veteran of Microsoft who was Windows Phone's chief developer evangelist for the first year of its life.

In a blog post, Kindel said Windows Phone has failed because Microsoft has alienated both phone makers and wireless carriers, two groups that Google has done a good job courting with its Android OS. With its tight hardware spec and rigid upgrade policy, Microsoft is limiting carriers' and manufacturers' freedom.

"Thus both of those sides of the market are reluctant. Especially the carriers, but also the device manufacturers. Remember that end users just do what they are told (by advertising and RSPs [salespeople]). Carriers own the marketing money and spend billions a year," he wrote.

The carriers and manufacturers will make and sell Windows phones, possibly because they're afraid of becoming too beholden to Google and Apple, but it seems they don't relish the devices or the platform much.

This jibes somewhat with our secret-shopper experiences last summer, where we found wireless carrier salespeople unenthusiastic about Windows Phone, and Windows Phones often turned off or relegated to the back of the store.

Apple also locks out manufacturers and alienates carriers, but it's taken over most of the roles they play, Kindel says. Apple has its own stores, its own ad campaigns, and its own tech support, reducing the carriers to dumb pipes that collect money. Microsoft hasn't gone nearly that far.

Kindel's blog post has attracted top-tier tech talent on its comment thread, and the major criticism (other than random anti-Microsoft blathering) seems to be that he's underplaying the role of software developers and apps.

"Android and iOS are 'safe' because that's where the apps are. Anything else? Not safe. Every conversation, every ad, and every Techcrunch post, er, Verge post, will remind them of where the apps are," blogger Robert Scoble said in response.

"I agree with you that the relatively weak app ecosystem in WP7 also plays an important part. I do not believe it is the most important reason," Kindel responded.

On Microsoft's part, the company has said it's making a major new push with Nokia; at the launch of the Nokia 710 with T-Mobile, T-Mobile senior vice president Andrew Sherrard said the carrier would make that phone a "hero device." But we've been hearing mixed things about the success of the Nokia 800 Windows phone in the first six countries it's appeared in, with Reuters most recently saying it's a bomb.

"Analysts said there was nothing particularly wrong with the sleek-looking handsets, other than a software glitch on some models affecting battery life, but consumers were just not biting," the Reuters report said. 

We'll have to see if the tight arrangement with Nokia will lead to greater success in 2012.
