Two months ago, when Mario Monti stepped down as Italy's prime minister, The Economist opined that "The coming election campaign will be, above all, a test of the maturity and realism of Italian voters." The mature, realistic action, presumably, would have been to return Monti -- who was essentially imposed on Italy by its creditors -- to office, this time with an actual democratic mandate.



For Monti was, in effect, the proconsul installed by Germany to enforce fiscal austerity on an already ailing economy; willingness to pursue austerity without limit is what defines respectability in European policy circles. This would be fine if austerity policies actually worked -- but they don't. And far from seeming either mature or realistic, the advocates of austerity are sounding increasingly petulant and delusional.




Meanwhile, austerity hasn't even achieved the minimal goal of reducing debt burdens. Instead, countries pursuing harsh austerity have seen the ratio of debt to GDP rise, because the shrinkage in their economies has outpaced any reduction in the rate of borrowing. And because austerity policies haven't been offset by expansionary policies elsewhere, the European economy as a whole -- which never had much of a recovery from the slump of 2008-09 -- is back in recession, with unemployment marching ever higher.



Thus in January 2011 Olli Rehn, a vice president of the European Commission, praised the austerity programs of Greece, Spain, and Portugal and predicted that the Greek program in particular would yield "lasting returns." Since then unemployment has soared in all three countries -- but sure enough, in December 2012, Rehn published an op-ed article with the headline "Europe must stay the austerity course."

Oh, and Rehn's response to studies showing that the adverse effects of austerity are much bigger than expected was to send a letter to finance minsters and the IMF declaring that such studies were harmful, because they were threatening to erode confidence.

Which brings me back to Italy, a nation that for all its dysfunction has in fact dutifully imposed substantial austerity -- and seen its economy shrink rapidly as a result.

Outside observers are terrified about Italy's election, and rightly so: Even if the nightmare of a Berlusconi return to power fails to materialize, a strong showing by Berlusconi, Grillo or both would destabilize not just Italy but Europe as a whole. But remember, Italy isn't unique: disreputable politicians are on the rise all across Southern Europe. And the reason this is happening is that respectable Europeans won't admit that the policies they have imposed on debtors are a disastrous failure. If that doesn't change, the Italian election will be just a foretaste of the dangerous radicalization to come.