Where do you stand?

Will Vladimir Putin serve a full term?

SINCE September 2011, if not earlier, it has been clear that Vladimir Putin would return to the Kremlin after the presidential election on March 4th. But the widespread discontent among Russians at the prospect of his reinstallation as president means it is far more difficult to predict how his second stint will turn out.

Some observers believe that unless he adjusts his leadership to Russians' new expectations he may be unable to see out his full six-year term, let alone the two terms that the constitution allows him.

Do you agree?

View results after you vote
Voting opened on Mar 2nd 2012

Readers' comments



International Analyst

As long as China and India continue to grow and have a greater demand for oil and as long as winter continue to exist in Europe causing them to have a need for natural gas, Putin will not only serve a full term, but a forth term is possible.

enriquecost in reply to Didomyk


Ukraine could have joined the European Union (EU) in May 1st 2004 at the same time as Poland...but I told you what Ukraine had to do to be a part of the E.U., and you didn´t listen. Now is late. And I don´t know if there will be another opportunity in the future.

Ukraine, in its present form, is much closer to the Russian Federation (religion, history, language) than to the European Union; there is a pro-Russian majority.

The pro-Western majority lives in the Western side of Ukraine, next to the E.U. (Poland, Romania, Slovakia...) with its long history as part of Western civilisation, while Eastern Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire.

Ukraine had a unique opportunity to join the West after the Orange Revolution, but for that it should have given independence to the Eastern part (Donbas, Crimea) so the pro-Western side could enjoy a clear majority. Then, alphabet should have been changed from cyrillic to Latin. And an Ukraine of 32 million people (without Donbas region and Crimea) could have joined the E.U. by 2004 with Poland and Romania.

Now the situation is very, very different. There is a clear pro-Russian majority in the 46 million people Ukraine. Cyrillic alphabet, Orthodox church with Moscow Patriarch, increasing economic ties of the military-industrial (Antonov) and energy (Naftogaz) companies with the Russian Federation...So, Ukraine will join the Eurasian Union in a couple of years.

Didomyk in reply to enriquecost

You wrote so much Bull..:

"Russia is on the road to become the largest car market in Europe,.."

Sure, replacing the hopelessly outdated Ladas with mass imports from Germany, Japan, Korea, even USA (or a few models 'assembled' in Russia by installoing doors, headlights and windshield wipers..:) Sure, the Germans, Japanese and Koreans are making money and keeping their plants productive. That's not likely to change.

"....the largest grain producer, the largest steel producer..."

Sure, more raw materials, be it raw grain products, or raw iron ore or pig iron, little if any processing. You need to learn that neither iron ore mining nor pig iron are "steel". And, Russia is well behind major steel producing countries capable of converting their steel products (plate, cold rolled or galvanised sheet, etc.) into machinery components, auto parts, ships and trains. That's known as 'value added', little known in Putin's Russia !

Quote; "... the Nabucco project is unviable, so only rests the Russian-led South Stream to supply Southern Europe"

Plain Bull... Russia's south Stream in not viable unless Putin is prepared to sink some $30 billion into undersea pipeline that has no storage capacity whatsoever, no distribution in the Balkan states and sooner or later will be out of Russian gas unless BP or Shell or somebody comes up with a huge new Arctic find and builds a new connecting pipeline all the way from East of Urals to the Black Sea at another $30 billions or more.

Meanwhile, most European countries are increasingly betting on LNG supplies, new terminals are built and alternative gas transmission systems are being designed. There is that future threat from shale gas deposits in Poland.....

Quote; " And exports to Japan and China are just at the beginning."

More plain bull... Sure, very limited LNG to Japan from Sakhalin. No other Russian sources to supply Japan or Korea. And China would not agree to Gazprom's price demands, - no pipeline to China, period. Meanwhile China is expanding its LNG facilties to import gas from anywhere in the world.

Oh, and Japan has again renewed its demands for Russia to return all four Kurile islands occupied by the Red army in 1945. China may soon demand the port of Nakhodka on the Sea of Japan...ready to re-settle a million or two of hard working Chinese anytime !

Putin's life is becoming more exciting !

Didomyk in reply to enriquecost


You wrote your standard dose of Bull..:

First, I was not aware that you make decisions on conditions for a country to be accepted into the EU. OK, Now its clear.

Second, like it or not but my name was not on the candidates list the last time they held presidential elections :)
Sorry, I could not do much about it.

You said "there is a pro-Russian majority"
What makes you, a foreigner, think so ? A majority of Russian-speaking people is not a "pro-Russian majority". You better check again with the present Russian-speaking Prime Minister and with half-a-dozen Donbas-raised ministers who want to retain their positions and influence instead of becoming Putin-puppets !

You wrote more Bull..: "alphabet should have been changed from cyrillic to Latin"

Were you sober when you wrote this ? I doubt.

You wrote: " Ukraine will join the Eurasian Union in a couple of years."

More Bull.. I assume Putin has already blessed your proposed terms for the Eurasian Union ? Have you submitted your recommendations to Yanukovych as to the terms under which he should sign for joining the Eurasian Union ?

Yenchuk in reply to enriquecost


When I read your response I had an impression that I have read your stories at least half a dozen times in the past. Can't you find something new ?

I bet you haven't even noticed your repetition of the same old arguments in the same post time after time. Mixing up Moscow Patriarchate with Naftogas you must have deliberately omitted a well known fact that not so long ago the Moscow Patriarchate was at the services of the Kremlin KGB and had special import trading privileges for... well, for alcoholic products.

That arrangement was supposed to ensure that salaries and year-end bonuses of all the Russian bishops and other top clergy were paid monthly, their residences were properly serviced and that their late model Mercedeses or BMWs standing in the bishops' garages were equipped with up to date communication and entertainment gear.

Well, who knows, maybe you still have special rights to discounted supply of the imported alcoholic beverages. Which is what influences your thinking when posting your 'expert' comments about your beloved 'Rodina' Russia.


Fear and the total absence of choice carried the election for Vladimir Putin, but that should not disguise in anyway the growing levels of discontentment across varying classes, ages and regions in Russia. Polls showed that the fastest decline in Mr Putin’s support was among poorer people over the age of 55; they feel that Mr Putin relapsed on his promises, and became tired of waiting for the reforms that had previously been pledged by him. These people, too, are agitated by the conspicuous display of riches by corrupt bureaucrats that simply heightens their sense of injustice. In the eyes of many others Mr Putin’s victory can only make things worse with a growing belief that the regime has lost legitimacy in the eyes of the population. The personalised systems to which he presided over have caused angst and have become not just corrupt but increasingly anachronistic and out-of-date. Russians seek a more modern way of life.

It’s no wonder, then, that ever more Russians are seeking legitimate and transparent institutions. They want to know that, like in every other democratic state, power can change hands freely. Because Mr Putin cannot offer this the conflict between him and those who resist his kleptocracy appears intractable.

Mr Putin’s promises of building a strong and paternalistic state appealed to almost everyone following the collapse of the Soviet economy, and then by the financial crisis in 1998. When he first came to power, Russia’s electorate was relatively homogeneous in its requirements. People voted for him in their masses and hardly even protested when he destroyed some aspects of their liberal aspirations or even when Mr Putin forced small political parties out of parliament. But times have changed, now, as many young and middle class Russians seek to be more than just consumers. Putin’s appeal to the traditionalists, though perhaps stage managed, was in direct contrast to the liberalisation and institutional change not only purported by his predecessor, Dmitry Medvedev, but by Vladimir Putin himself. Something surely is waiting to backfire.


Do you agree?

"will Valdimir Putin serve a full term"?
or, as some observers believe that:
"he may be unable to see out his full six-year term".

So, if 'yes' is the majority, the majority agree to the observers, and if 'no' is the majority, the majority do not agree with the question.

clever, very clever...


I believe that there is some misunderstanding with Putin's lack of popularity. Ordinary Russians want a better standard of living, more civic rights, and more freedom of speech and in my opinion this is the origin of Moscow protests last December. Putin is like Mr Tusk in Poland - everybody is eager to hate him, yet they realize that Mr Tusk is the only possible politician able to improve the economy in Poland. Poland and Russia are very similar as far as their political spectra are concerned. If someone wanted a testing ground for Russia they should analize Poland, which is the key to understand former USSR.

lennoxRU in reply to Onur Ozalp

Nope. To TE. Questioning power democratically chosen leader of a country is nonsense. Its like asking "will the president of US end his tenure in normal order or the world will unite and kick this country's ass and prosecute its leaders at last?".

Onur Ozalp

I don't agree on this motion. As far as I am concerned, Putin could easily see the normal end of his potential presidency.
Firstly, in Russia it is difficult to investigate any cases against him. So it could be difficult to damage his charisma over the public. So, in my opinion he is still strong enough to shut the opponents up.
Furthermore, Russia's economy is being expected to proceed so rapidly, which will help the president of the country whomsoever.

john4law in reply to Nikos Retsos

An election victory achieved by eliminating any significant opponents and undisguised ballot manipulation and biased vote count is no victory but an act of raw power which confers no legitimacy but detracts from it.


Note that Brazil´s GDP growth in 2011 was 2.7% while Russia´s GDP growth was 4.1% in 2011.

Income per head growth in Brazil was 1.5% while in Russia income per head increased 4% given its lower demographic impulse.

In a couple of years, it is possible that Russia becomes the second best performer among the BRIC in GDP growth. In fact, its income per head of almost $17,000 at PPP is twice China´s and 50% bigger than Brazil´s.

Didomyk in reply to Spectacularj1

The issue of counting Putin's terms becomes complicated. OK, so he was an elected president of Russian Federation for two terms, following which he was an appointed 'prime minister with presidential powers' for the past four years, now he was elected for another presidential term. And the constitution provides for him serving another term , - that would be his FIFTH term.
Now, let's keep in mind that Putin has full control of the Duma (Parliament) where obedient servants of the State would be willing to amend the constitution to establish a new position, perhaps like 'The Honorary President for life', which would be similar to a lifetime role of Kings and Monarchs. His main role would be performing all sorts of honorary functions from visiting other Emperors, Kings and Queens to saluting from the Kremlin tower twice a year responding to the best wishes of the millions of former proletarians, now middle class Moscovites, parading on the RED Square (to be renamed Putin Square) marking (1) Putin's birthday and (2) the anniversary of the Russian Putin's Federation.


Yes, Vladimir Putin will serve as Russian Prime Minister full term. The reason of that is that he has solidify his grip of power by out manuvering everyone in the Duma by asserting newly constitutional power to becoming a dictetorial leader in Russia. He will go back to the old Kremlin style of governing limiting democratic governance in that country.

That remains to be seen if the people of Russia wakes up to the reality of Putin's hunger for power. My prediction is that he will serve as Prime Minister until 2023.


I know I am the worst of prophets, but this time I`m fully convinced that Comrade Putin will not last six more years. The middle class he created has to get rid of him.

Nikos Retsos

Puting would probably serve 2 more full terms. He has learnt a lot about the changing public attitudes in Russia, and he is willy enough to adjust. Better yet, the West's effort to unseat him with funding of various NGOs and lightweight Russian wannabee presidents fall in deaf ears across the Russian vast-land. Russian punched and kicked former USSR boss Michael Gorbachev when he run for president for turning their land into a beggar state. Do they want another Gorbachev-like politician as president? Not in my opinion!

Now the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe, (OSCE) the European organization commissioned to protect the interest of the U.S. and its European allies in Europe blasts the Putin election as fraudulent. Obviously, the OSCE is still chaffing from its failure to convince Putin to pull back the Russian forces he sent to South South Ossetia and Abkhazia to kick out the invading forces of Georgian president Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. The OSCE tried to negotiate their withdrawal, but Russia stood firm, and both South Ossetia and Abkhazia declared independence with Russian backing and military protection. The OSCE evaluation is probably the sweet revenge of the West against Putin now.

The rolling cameras in all polling stations across Russia certainly confirm the validity of the elections, and an erroneous ballot stuffing in Dagestan was caught on tape was voided by officials. (Washington Post, March 5, 2012) Surely, there was opposition to Putin in Moscow due to the foreign NGO activities, and Russians who don't like Putin and his recycling gimmicks to stay in power. But across the vast land of 11 times zones of Russia, the opposition was non-existed. And there is where the reserve political power of the Putin is based.

Then, there is something else that is too strange and highly suspicious today -as of this writing: All the headlines under "Putin" on Google's News homepage -except the Russian RT - are from Western media sources ONLY! All Indian, Chinese, Arabic and other foreign English "Online" media sources are "filtered out by the Google company," except Thailand's "Bangkok Post" that predict "protests" against Putin! This is the first time in the last decade that I noticed such a complete "blackout" of other than Western media sources online. That seems to me to be an orchestrated Western effort to give the OSCE anti-Putin charade maximum coverage by convincing Google to filter out all other news that might be objective about Putin's victory.

I have written many anti-Putin comments in the past, but monopolizing headlines, and filtering out all other news not agreeing with the West's views, is certainly offensive to the intelligence of the readers. The West's Cold War with Russia is over, but the West has now replaced it with a "Media Cold War." Nikos Retsos, retired professor


Pre-election protest indicates that there is every likelihood that protest may errupt after the election and its scale can be significant if Putin. Makes any "mistakes". Such mistakes include repressions, persecution of his political opponents, as well as any downturn in economy, including global prices for oil and gas. Given the fact that Putin has made little efforts for Russia to avoid oil and goas export dependance, any change for worse will be attributable to him more than ordinary failures to political leaders in general. Given, the shaky ground under his feet, where people are waiting for him to make mistakes and are certain what kind of his mistakes he is about to make, the critique will slap hard.



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