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Population size, concentration, and civil war : a geographically disaggregated analysis, Volume 1
Author:Hegre, Havard; Raleigh, Clionadh; Country:Central America;
Date Stored:2007/06/04Document Date:2007/06/01
Document Type:Policy Research Working PaperSubTopics:Demographics; Social Conflict and Violence; Country Population Profiles; Health Indicators; Population Policies
Language:EnglishRegion:Latin America & Caribbean
Report Number:WPS4243Collection Title:Policy, Research working paper ; no. WPS 4243Post-Conflict Transitions working paper ; no. PC 16
Volume No:1  

Summary: Why do larger countries have more armed conflict? This paper surveys three sets of hypotheses forwarded in the conflict literature regarding the relationship between the size and location of population groups: Hypotheses based on pure population mass, on distances, on population concentrations, and some residual state-level characteristics. The hypotheses are tested on a new dataset-ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Events Dataset)-which disaggregates internal conflicts into individual events. The analysis covers 14 countries in Central Africa. The conflict event data are juxtaposed with geographically disaggregated data on populations, distance to capitals, borders, and road networks. The paper develops a statistical method to analyze this type of data. The analysis confirms several of the hypotheses.

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