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Intel Guidance for comment

Released on 2012-10-12 10:00 GMT

Email-ID 3289312
Date 2011-10-21 23:02:42
Intelligence Guidance

Libya: Former Libyan leader Moamar Gadhafi is dead. After the
congratulations and celebratory mood recedes, there remain serious issues
in the country. Is the NTC truly the "sole legitimate representative of
the Libyan people"? STRATFOR no longer believes the NTC can be used to
describe all of the anti-Gadhafi groupings, but are any of these groupings
on the verge of outright severing ties with the NTC? What are the various
elements seeking power, wealth and influence in the country? Is a new
competition arising between Tripoli and Bengazi? Can the various elements
of the opposition hold together, and does their competition degrade into
conflict? Who controls oil contracts? How are western powers dealing with
the loss of weapons, particularly surface to air missiles, from Gadhafi*s

Israel/Palestinian Territories: The Shalit trade has been effected. The
actions of Hamas to strike the deal, rather than to try and exacerbate
tensions with Israel amid the Fatah attempt to gain legitimacy in the
United Nations, requires us to continue to reassess the status of the
Palestinians, and their views not only of Israel, but the regional
situation. In particular, we need to look at Hamas* views of Egypt, and
the relationship between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian military.
Inside the Palestinian territories, how does this impact Fatah, and its
political strength? What are the counter-moves by Fatah? Now that the deal
is done, what are the implications on the internal balance of Israeli

Iraq: U.S. President Barak Obama has announced that U.S. forces will
complete their withdrawal from Iraq by the end of the year. How is this
perceived in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states? What are the next
steps for Iran regarding its influence and projection of power into Iraq?
The Syrian regime appears to be holding despite domestic protests. The
U.S. withdrawal would seem to pave the way for a continuous arc of Iranian
influence through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. What options do the Saudis and
the Turks see to address this? What actions are they preparing, if any?

Europe: French President Nicolas Sarkozy*s last minute trip to Frankfurt
combined with Germany*s announcement that additional Eurozone and EU27
summits beyond those taking place this weekend would be necessary before a
solution to the financial crisis could be announced indicate two things:
one, that the Europeans are serious about devising a plan to address the
Continent*s financial crisis and, two, that Germany and France have
heretofore failed to come to a consensus on what that plan is. Whatever
the solution, we need to start shifting our attention away from the
financial details, which are becoming increasingly meaningless, and
concentrate on understanding the political consequences of the crisis in
Europe. Identify the political and social vulnerabilities across the
Continent. How susceptible are individual states to radicalizing forces?
Where is nationalist sentiment the strongest? Where is social tolerance
the weakest? Which countries have the institutional strength to administer
and withstand massive economic restructuring? Europe has been experiencing
political cycles since the Magna Carter; this is just the latest chapter.
We need an assessment of these variables in each member state so we can
identify the potential breakpoints.