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Good Question

Good Question


In the midst of a whole 'lotta nada' this Friday, I ran across a debate question from one of my favrorite blog stops All Kinds of Time. How many wins saves Ted and Mike's jobs next season?





I think it's now safe to assume that this year will be a defining season for both coach and general manager. But exactly, just how many wins will it take?

Since I am banned from nearly every Packer forum on the face of the planet, at least most of the crappy ones, I really wasn't able to gauge the thoughts of Packer nation. So, I thought I would pose the same question to those here at the lounge.

That being said, what is the magic number?

  • Is there any scenario in which a losing season still finds Ted an Mike behind the helm?
  • Is it playoffs or unemployment checks for both gentleman?
  • Is one man's fate directly related to the others?

The author, Donalds Designated Driver, sees it the following way:

  • 100% chance that the two of them will be back if the team is 9-7 or better.
  • 70% chance that the two of them will be back in the team is 8-8.
  • 30% chance that the two will be back if the team is 7-9.
  • 0% chance (or close to it) that the two will be back if the team is 6-10 or worse.

Personally, I agree with his first two scenarios, although I think there would have to be some extenuating circumstances to ensure employment after an 8-8 campaign; especially if it didn't involve a trip to the post-season.

My take, it's the playoffs or bust. Nothing less than a post-season berth (or every starter getting injured) saves Ted Thompson. I think Mike McCarthy perhaps gets a little more benefit of the doubt, but may find his job tied hand-in-hand with double T.

What's your take?


(Stay Tuned)

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Justin Case's picture

I think Ted and Mike could go as low as 8-8 this season and keep their jobs. Because we're changing to a 3-4 then player adjustments can be used as an excuse for failure. However fans are expecting a playoff spot after so many coaching changes and they would have to do an awful lot of explaining to keep their jobs if we end up less than 8-8.

Personally I think we'll win the division back this season as there's one thing you learn with a 6-10 season . . . . . . . losing sucks!

Andyman's picture

I really think TT and MC are pretty well tied together - and this is their final shot. There were very high (maybe too high?) expectations last year after the 13 - 3 year, but that 13 - 3 year is really all they have to show for their time here. I think this 3 - 4 switch is a last ditch effort to try and salvage something, and they won't be given the "benefit of the doubt" when it comes to that switch. I think "playoffs or bust" is going to be the mantra this year (isn't it every year?) In the North, I can't imagine than 9 - 7 wouldn't win you the division, but you never know I suppose. Regardless, if they have any lower than 9 wins, I think the chances are almost 100% that we will be saying goodbye to TT and MC at the end of the year. I am wishing them the best of luck!

Pack93z's picture

My opinion hasn't changed on this topic yet.. I think this is the make or break year for both.

They need to show improvement in developing these young core players, something that is lacking severely to date. Now that sounds like a coaching problem doesn't it; or is it a limitation issue of the players themselves.

We have 3 to 5 offensive lineman drafted and coached up by this regime, none of them are growing by leaps and bounds.. three years of Spitz and Colledge have seen limited results. Moll looks like a wash.. Barbre can't seem to take advantage of playing behind a misplaced player in Colledge. whom is clearly a tackle.

We have a linebacking group that flashes at times, but has been disappointing at best. We have Jolly, Montgomery, Harrell and Hunter that have not grown.. pretty much remained what we got when we drafted them.

So either the coaching is subpar or the players didn't have the potential once thought.. it is splitting hairs. Personally this team needs to take the step forward, learn how to close out games and become much "nastier" in the trenches.. we are missing an attitude on this team.. and if I am disappointed in this offseason, it is that we haven't acquired someone to help Greene, Capers, and Campen to extend that attitude upon the field.

If I watch Hawk sit in the hole and wait again this year.. I think I might completely lose it and never forgive the buckeye.. pansy ass linebacker U.

Packnic's picture

I dont think its as easy as most fans like to think as if theres a number associated with their job. 6-10 you're fired, 10-6 you stay. I think there are a ton of situations involved in a season and say we lose several starters early and the team still plays well in loses... much like last year, I don't think they would or should be fired. If the team loses several games because its unorganized and poorly coached then yes... fire away. I really don't think it should or does revolve around a magical number.

Not to mention firing someone is easy, hiring a competent replacement isn't. If you're so gung ho about firing TT and MM, you better have someone that can do better, and I personally don't think there are many options out there that are better.

Chipper's picture

The final judgement always comes down to the wins. All of those circumstances will translate themselves into winning. You go 0-16 and look very good and promising in the're fired.

A good point was made that a valid replacement is a very rare commodity it seems in today's NFL. However teams like the Ravens, Steelers, Falcons, 49ers and Dolphins have certainly managed to get productive seasons out of new head coaches after long decisions on firing or retiring head coaches. So maybe taking chances on new head coaches does pan out. Now personally I have never been a big fan of either McCarthy or Thompson. I haven't really felt strongly for McCarthy especially. Thompson gained my respect very much when he stuck to his guns and defended his decision among intense scrutiny with the Favre/ Rodgers saga.

I don't feel McCarthy has the leadership, confidence and know-how to be the long term charismatic coach Green Bay needs and deserves.

To me the more pressing issue here is what we would do with our new Defensive staff. The Packers have just hired on Dom Capers and a wealth of new Defensive coaches. Forcing a new head coach to keep an existing staff has not boded well for teams in the past. So, it will be interesting to see what transpires in that respect.

Dale Z's picture

I'm leaning towards playoff or bust.


Greg C.'s picture

I think Donald's Designated Driver has it exactly right, and I'm impressed that he even broke it down into percentages to reflect that nothing is set in stone.

As for "playoffs or bust," what if they go 11-5 and miss the playoffs, like the Patriots did this year, or even 10-6 and miss the playoffs? If something like that happens, Thompson and McCarthy won't get fired.

Dale Z's picture

11-5 and miss the playoffs? In the NFC? Not likely.

I say I'm leaning towards playoffs or bust because there are other things out there. I highly doubt we have as many crippling injuries in 2009 but you have to keep stuff like that in mind. If Aaron Rodgers goes down in week 2 for the season and we end up going we fire our coach and GM?

backthepack4's picture

The Packers are about winning. When's the last time we've had a GM and/or coach with a losing record, that lasted 5 years? Let's not go back to the mediocrity and contentment of the '80's. 10 wins or clean house!

open e cry's picture

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