2012 NFL predictions: 49ers will ride dominant D to Super Bowl win

Now that we've picked all eight division winners for the 2012 regular season, it's time to reveal how Sporting News thinks the playoffs will play out.

The last three Super Bowls have been won by NFC teams—the New York Giants, Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints. Although those teams were all known for their elite quarterbacks—Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees—the difference was defense.

The San Francisco 49ers are Sporting News' pick to win Super Bowl XLVII, as quarterback Alex Smith should expect a giant assist from the team's dominant defense. (AP Photo)

The Giants ultimately did it with their front four, the Packers did it with their 3-4 and the Saints did it with a takeaway machine.

As for the last two Super Bowl MVPs, Manning was a No. 1 overall pick and Rodgers was selected in the 2005 draft. That should provide a further hint of which NFC team we're picking to carry the torch in '12: Alex Smith and the San Francisco 49ers.

Recapping division previews, picks

NFC: East | North | South | West

AFC: East | North | South | West

Predicting the NFC playoff field

1. Green Bay Packers (12-4)

2. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)

3. Atlanta Falcons (10-6)

4. New York Giants (9-7)

5. Chicago Bears (10-6)

6. Detroit Lions (10-6)

The Packers get the top seed for the second consecutive season by virtue of their Week 1 home win over the 49ers. The Giants are back in their familiar No. 4 spot, but expect things to play out a little differently than they did in the '11 playoffs. The Bears and Lions will take advantage of their softer interdivision slates to trump the Eagles and Saints for the final two playoffs spots, but don’t look for them to last long.

Wild-card playoffs: Falcons over Lions, Giants over Bears

Matt Ryan gets his first playoff win in a home dome shootout over Matthew Stafford in a game that pushes 90 combined points. The Giants, meanwhile, emerge from a 1980s-like defensive struggle, as their pass rushers eventually work over the Bears' vulnerable offensive line. It sets up a much-anticipated divisional playoff rematch with the Packers in Green Bay.

Divisional playoffs: 49ers over Falcons, Packers over Giants

The 49ers succeed in slowing down Ryan and his talented receivers after the Falcons make the tough cross-country trek. The Packers, with a big game from Rodgers, exact revenge on the Giants in the same round the teams met last season.

NFC championship game: 49ers over Packers

The Packers will still have the bitter taste of the Giants upsetting them at Lambeau a year ago. The Niners will still be trying to forget how they let the Giants escape with a win in San Francisco last season. It should be a classic, with the Packers' offense and the Niners' defense playing to a standstill for four quarters. The visitors then steal the game in a gritty, bitterly cold overtime.

Predicting the AFC playoff field

1. New England Patriots (13-3)

2. Houston Texans (11-5)

3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)

4. Denver Broncos (11-5)

5. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

The Patriots and Texans will breeze through their shaky divisions while the Ravens and Broncos will survive tougher schedules to make it four-for-four in repeat division winners. With the other true AFC wild-card candidates—the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers—all battling through some quarterback issues, Andy Dalton's Bengals and Ben Roethlisberger's Steelers will make it six-for-six in happy playoff returns.

Wild-card playoffs: Broncos over Bengals, Ravens over Steelers

It feels right to have Peyton Manning back in the playoffs, and blessed with such a second chance, he's not one to let it slip past him. The young Bengals will fight well, but No. 18 will make the difference. The Baltimore-Pittsburgh matchup will be—what else?—a physical, defensive-minded game until a tall, strong-armed and deceptively mobile quarterback delivers late. The Ravens will be pleased to know Joe Flacco will be that quarterback, ready to pick up where he left off against the Patriots in the playoffs.

Divisional playoffs: Broncos over Patriots, Texans over Ravens

Tom Brady and the Patriots have been Manning's big-name nemeses, and that same team owned Tim Tebow's Broncos last season. Before Tebow, however, the Broncos had Brady's number in the playoffs. In a thrilling upset, it's Denver winning at New England. Baltimore-Houston will be another dandy rematch. This time, with both home-field advantage and a healthy Matt Schaub in the lineup, the Texans will turn the tables.

AFC championship game: Texans over Broncos

Houston had its breakthrough last season, but only after Indy was Manning-less for the season. Even though he's in a different division now, he stands in the Texans’ way again. Although Houston doesn't have the flash of Denver, New England or Baltimore, the Texans’ running game and 3-4 defense will stand above the rest, and that will pay off in the biggest game in their short history.

Super Bowl XLVII: 49ers over Texans

It's about time for some new blood in the Super Bowl. After a regular season that will look much like '11, unpredictability will bubble up again in the playoffs. We're due for a dominant defensive team to re-emerge as NFL champions, and before you knock Smith, his play at quarterback will continue to complement San Francisco's standout strengths elsewhere.

The Texans will hang in there, and just down the road from New Orleans, Houston football fans will enjoy a long-awaited treat.

But Jim Harbaugh has that Jon Gruden look about him, and we know how well that worked out for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 years ago.

In the end, we need a more obvious reminder that defenses still win championships in the NFL, and the 49ers will provide it with their sixth ring and first in 18 seasons.

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