Analyzing New Election Data For the 2020 Election

hey guys welcome back today's video today a Sunday June 16th 2019 and today are gonna be looking at the latest Democratic primary polls a national well general election polling for the Democratic Party and of course Donald Trump versus the various Democrats that are currently I guess you could say the top Democrats on our list so we have some polls some interesting ones from Iowa New Hampshire South Carolina twice one from CBS News and then one from posting courier but overall we should have some interesting data to go through one clear trend that you can see based on your screen right now is that Biden leads in almost every single early voting state actually he does lead in every single early voting state including the state of New Hampshire which I do think is pretty interesting considering New Hampshire is typically it can a progressive state which currently has Sanders and Warren both in there but again that's an about it like nine months so it should not be too important to us right now yes and is one of the first races but right now we should be focusing on the democratic debate and what those mean for various Democratic candidates so let's get started off with the new Fox News poll for the total National Democratic nomination poll Biden leads by 19 percent now that's not too different from what we've seen in previous polls just a little step up from the most recent ones that were taken around a couple days ago Fox News put Sanders at 13% and Warren at 9 percent followed by Buddha judge Harris and then O'Rourke Booker Klobuchar yang guilt Gillibrand Castro and then so on and so forth but Bernie Sanders being at 13% is not a good look for him Biden being at 32% is pretty much the average as to where it is right now but Sanders and the Fox News poll is definitely under average so is Elizabeth Warren Buddha judge is just slightly above and Harris is definitely above but overall the general conclusion is that Biden is leading nationwide I don't think that's any different than any any other election poll that we've seen for the Democratic primary race and of course Biden with the most name recognition out of any given candidates running it doesn't make sense that he would be leading 32% is it pretty much around a third of all the Democratic voters contending that there's over 20 candidates running a third is not half bad for Joe Biden Bernie Sanders at 13% that is an extremely low number for someone who is been in this race and someone who's ran against Hillary Clinton back in 2016 it came close to actually beating her nationwide came within 1% of beating Hillary Clinton and now is that 13% in the most recent poll in an average of 15 point eight percent there definitely is an argument that if Warren drops out Sanders numbers will go above Joe Biden but again we only know that if it actually does end up happening if you look right now if you look Biden is that thirty two point two percent but if you add Sanders and Warren together you get around actually do get exactly 36 percent or 37 percent of the vote and that really does I wait actually that's 36 percent of the vote I'm 99 percent sure or 37 but overall it doesn't matter so means that they're going to surpass Joe Biden in that scenario but that's not too likely to happen Warren being in third place does not necessarily mean that she's going to drop out that's not a bad position to be in with other like 20 other candidates when martin O'Malley was third place in 2016 that was a bad place to be in because there are only two top candidates and being at one to two percent nationwide it was not a good look for any candidate but being third place amongst 20 others definitely puts you in a good place nationwide and Warren pretty much has been holding out strong this entire campaign season she didn't start out in third place but she said I believe she started out in fourth yes she started out and forth under better or roark and then slowly dipped a little bit and then pretty much stayed not necessarily under the radar but not a top name that was mentioned all the time and then she boosted back up and since then Warren has been leading and now she's at 11.2% and that's a pretty good position for Elizabeth Warren no other Democrats have reached that high Harris actually no Harris did reach 12 point three percent at one point but that was way back and Warren has now gotten the highest Democratic candidate I guess number besides Sanders Warren Sanders Biden and Harris but again eleven point two percent when the second-place person is at fifteen point eight percent means that there is a possibility that Warren could overtake Sanders now Biden is completely has completely drawn away from the rest of the pack at 32.2% the rest of them are just down there in low either low double digits or single digits even and Warren definitely could overturn could overcome Bernie Sanders it just all depends on scenarios and whether or not the progressive vote splits between the two but that's him right now I think Warren is in a very very good place and Biden is also in a pretty good place holding on to pretty much the same exact lead he's had for the past couple months besides his little announcement bump that lasted for a couple of days moving on to Iowa Biden leads by 8% now this is a CBS News poll so it's not done by Fox News but it's a statewide poll from the state of Iowa keep in mind they have a caucus but in 2016 favored Bernie Sanders which was pretty interesting considering that the young vote was something that Sanders did very well with and just it caucuses are where people stay with their voting caucus and they don't exactly cast a ballot but they just stay there and that supposedly was more inclined for younger voters but if we're looking at the Democratic primary I started caucus data from the state of Iowa Biden has pretty much lead in almost all of the polls there was a tie with a gravis poll I believed Sanders might have led in one of them actually know if he did not lead in any of them the closest he got to winning was a tie and then a recent CNN poll shows Biden leading by eight now this new CBS News poll confirms that puts him ahead by 5.6 percent on average in Iowa I think that's also pretty interesting considering Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton narrowly defeated Bernie Sanders here by just less than a percentage point she's able to overcome him here and it was pretty interesting considering that Sanders was not well known a year before but now he's pretty well known he should have high numbers in Iowa as he did in 2016 but we're just not seeing the same type of enthusiasm in the same type of support from the state of Iowa itself which could smell our bad news for Bernie Sanders and future upcoming States peabody judge however is on his third place in the state of iowa not warren not harris but peat buddha judge he's about fifth place nationwide but being third place in the state of iowa is not a bad thing either any places pretty much in the top five America will know his name overnight he will be the headline other than maybe Biden or Sanders victory Buddha judge will definitely be headline he's within striking distance Morin is within striking distance of people to judge but Sanders and Biden are pretty much away from the rest of the pack in terms of numbers and then if we look over we have another poll from the state of New Hampshire which also holds some interesting data pretty much New Hampshire has been a progressive state if you look at the first poll ever taken from UNH Sanders leads by 7 percent and then if you look over at some other of the polls Sanders led by 11 percent 12 percent in one poll but now in the three most recent polls Biden has led by 818 and then 13 his most recent one was taken from May 31st to June 12th I do think that it is pretty interesting showing showing Biden leading by 13 percent Warren coming in a close third very very close to Bernie Sanders again and argument that has been made multiple times Warren is within striking distance of Bernie Sanders so there's a very real possibility Warren does such performs better than Bernie Sanders at the end of the day once we get to that Democratic convention things definitely can change maybe neither of them will be in the top three by the end of the campaign season but there is a very real possibility Warren comes close to Bernie Sanders especially with these many candidates running it's hard to see why she wouldn't be able to overtake him because right now Sanders has pretty much had a steady decline whereas Warren is pretty much had a steady increase but again things can change that's just how I'm viewing it as right now now South Carolina has two new polls one from postal carrier and one from CBS News both of which show Biden leading by 20 percent or more on an average of 27.5% interestingly Sanders has double digits according to the CBS News poll but Biden absolutely takes away from the rest of the pack The Post and Courier poll shows Warren in second place boot ejection third Harris and Sanders tied for fourth but the CBS News poll shows Biden in first Sanderson's second a Warren and third Harrison fourth and brutal judge in fifth pretty much still a very large lead large leaves for Joe Biden that's as expected but as of right now that's substantial I mean Hillary Clinton won by more than this but she also wasn't running against 20 other people Joe Biden and I definitely think would have a really really good time if he's able to hold on to this margin running against that many people on Election Day I do expect a number of these candidates to drop out after Iowa or New Hampshire even though they've raised you know tens of thousands hundreds of thousands possibly millions of dollars it doesn't mean much much when you have nowhere to go on in terms of the Democratic primary but we also have some general election data which is pretty interesting right now if we look these are all Fox News polls they have general they have general election data for Trump versus Biden versus Sanders war in Harrison Buddha judge pretty much the top five candidates nationwide the one candidate that leads by double digits is Joe Biden by 10 percent then followed by Sanders at 9% and Warren leads by 2 and the Harrison Buddha judge both lead Donald Trump by one I do think that it is pretty interesting that more Sanders and Biden lead by the largest amounts and then it drastically drops down to two and 1% leads for both of those Democratic candidates but again things can change but it just shows that Sanders and Biden there probably need two most electable candidates for this a general election but also Fox News did an approval poll which was jonald Trump at a disappointing of 8% and approval rating at 45% which is pretty much average to what it is right now if you actually look 44.2% so just a little bit above average which because also say that because the Democratic Party did so well in this poll that it may actually show that they could be doing a little bit better nationwide so thank you guys for watching this video comment down suggestions below and I will see you all tomorrow

Maurice Vega

39 Responses

  1. Every candidate who is not Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg should drop out.

    Nobody else really has a chance.

  2. You said Biden pulled away from the field, but he has been consistently declining after is post-announcement surge. That doesn't look like running away with it to me. Most people aren't really paying attention yet. Most people polled have not seen speeches on the candidates or read their platforms. The only people paying attention right now are political junkies, political organizations and the media.

  3. I understand your emphasis on polls since that is pretty much all you can do right now. But, you should at least mention how most polls only ask likely voters who they would vote for. Likely Voters are mostly older voters who prefer Biden. Younger voters who typically don’t vote and so aren’t considered Likely Voters by any pollsters, tend to prefer Bernie. The reason the polls couldn’t predict Bernie doing so well in many primaries in 2016 was due to this issue. He brings out unlikely voters in large numbers. I’m sure with the debates coming up and the time between now and then we will see him and Warren climb towards Biden in the coming months and we will all be “surprised” when both have a big show on primary days with Biden lacking big time. Everyone will say “but the polls didn’t predict this!?” Of course they didn’t. If only likely voters vote then polls are quite accurate if they have significant sample sizes and accurate demographics, just don’t expect them to be perfect with candidates participating who enthuse unlikely voters

  4. Please do a rebuttal video on Red Eagle calling you biased, when he is more biased than Fox " Faux" "News".
    (Red Eagle recently made a community post saying that he was the biggest election prediction channel that is not biased for liberals.)

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