If Only Other Pollsters Were Like Ann Selzer


Campaign internal polling is often more accurate than public polling. The campaigns dedicate more resources and want the polls as accurate as possible. The campaigns that take shortcuts can wind up in a world of hurt.

Media polls often do the same. They rely on pretty inaccurate online polls or they don’t call enough people or they form groups of voters to call based on databases, etc. There are a lot of shortcuts.

Steven Shepard has a profile of Ann Selzer in the Politico that you should read. Ms. Selzer does not take short cuts. Consequently, her polling is trusted by both parties and the media.

Some pollsters, like the CNN/ORC poll to which Trump referred, randomly call Iowa phone numbers and ask respondents if they’re registered to vote and whether they intend to go to a caucus site. Others, like Monmouth University, have used a tighter screen — only calling those voters who participated in recent primary elections. (Though Monmouth recently expanded its screen to include a minority of people who haven’t participated in past nominating contests.)





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Erick Erickson
By Erick Erickson

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