Monday, March 17, 2014

Breaking In to Prison

Crimeans have made it official: they wish to break in to the prison of Putin's Russia.

The rigged vote is over in Crimea:

Authorities in Crimea have declared the republic's independence from Ukraine and formally applied to join the Russian Federation.

It also declared all Ukrainian state property would be nationalized.

The measures were approved by all 85 deputies present in the 100-seat regional assembly.

Crimea's lawmakers also asked the United Nations and other countries to recognize the newly declared independence.

Yes, it was free in the sense that Russia probably had no need to actually forge ballots--although they would have.

But it was rigged. Crimeans were surrounded by the inevitability of Russian control, with troops, thugs, and propaganda to keep anybody with doubts about the threat of Nazis--who surely must be in the next town over even though no brown shirts are nearby--ensuring those who didn't want to join Russia would stay home. So while a majority would have voted to join Russia, it wouldn't have been as high as the results if all had voted.

I'm surprised that Russia's parliament hasn't already voted to accept Crimea into Russia and that Russian troops haven't fanned out to take Crimea physically.

Could it be that the Russians really want to move simultaneously with a move in eastern Ukraine, but that creating a pretext to occupy Kharkov and Donetsk isn't going as smoothly as Putin assumed?

Or is Putin cautious (because other than nukes, his military is more bluff than reality) and waiting to see if there will be effective resistance to this move before moving on to the next step?

Anyway, if Russia isn't getting it over fast, Ukraine has a chance to reverse this.

Could Ukraine start moving in troops to Crimea to mount a subliminal counter-invasion the way Russia moved in militias and troops without shooting to take over areas? The separatists and Russians can't be everywhere.

And take advantage of the fact that Ukraine still has forces in the region. Reinforce those Ukrainian military outposts still holding out. Helicopter in reinforcements and supplies while pulling out those who aren't up to resisting the pressure (or bullets if they come). Then see if those outposts can start putting out their own road blocks and checkpoints to expand control around the bases.

We could have a role in this as I discussed earlier by using ships to supply the Ukrainian outposts and providing medical assistance. And intelligence about where to go. And we should start providing more than MREs to Ukraine's military. I could understand pre-referendum caution to avoid handing Russia easy propaganda points about American interference to justify the referendum. But the vote is over and now it is too late to prevent the vote, no?

If the Russians won't finish the job, Ukraine should figure out how to contest it. And we should help them.

And let's wrap our heads around the idiocy of Crimeans begging to go into Putin's Russia. Did nobody point out that when the opportunity presented itself between 1989 and 1992 that everybody who could manage it escaped from the then-Soviet Union's loving grip?