Lebanon Being Forced to Collapse

by Andre Vltchek

It stands on the frontline, facing ISIS in the east and north, a hostile Israel in the south and the deep blue sea to the west.  One and a half (1.5) million (mostly Syrian) refugees are dispersed all over its tiny territory.  Its economy is collapsing and infrastructure crumbling.   ISIS is right at the border with Syria, literally next door, or even with one foot inside Lebanon, periodically invading, and setting up countless “dormant cells” in all Lebanese cities and all over its countryside.  Hezbollah is fighting ISIS, but the West and Saudi Arabia apparently consider Hezbollah, not  ISIS, to be the major menace to their geopolitical interests.  The Lebanese army is relatively well-trained but badly armed, and like the entire country, it is notoriously cash-strapped.
Beirut now

Beirut now

Is this what the West and its regional allies really want?
Who triggered this war is never addressed.
Why so much fuss over Hezbollah?  It is because it is predominantly Shi’a, and Shi’a Muslims are being antagonized, targeted,  and sometimes even directly liquidated, by almost all the West’s allies in the Arab world.
Hezbollah is seen as the right hand of Iran, and Iran is Shi’a; it stands against Western imperialism determinedly, alongside Russia, China and much of Latin America – countries that are demonized and provoked by the Empire and its client states.
“So what?” many people in the region would ask, including those living in Lebanon.
Angie Tibbs is the owner and senior editor of Dissident Voice who has been closely watching events in the Middle East for the last number of years.  She believes that a brief comparison between events of 2005 and today is essential for understanding the complexity of the situation:
Lebanese army ready to defend Tripoli

Lebanese Army ready to defend Tripoli

Ms Tibbs is also convinced that the so-called international community is leaving Lebanon defenseless on purpose:
Indignant, several Lebanese leaders are snapping back.  The Foreign Minister, Gebran Bassil, even refused to meet with Ban Ki-moon during his two-day visit of Beirut and the Bekaa Valley.


Lebanon is collapsing.  Even its once lavish capital Beirut is experiencing constant blackouts, water shortages and garbage-collection dramas.  Economically, the country is in a sharp decline.
Dr. Salim Chahine, Professor of Finance at the American University of Beirut, is usually at least moderately upbeat about his country.  Developments of recent years, however, wear off his optimism.
“Although the Coincident Indicator issued by the Lebanese Central Bank, BDL, has recently suggested a slight enhancement in economic activity, several officials are sending clear warnings about further deterioration of the situation.  The regional geopolitical tensions, the civil conflict in Syria, as well as their implications internally have impacted tourism, trade, and the real estate sectors.  According to HSBC, deposits from Lebanon’s largest expatriate population – that usually provide the necessary liquidity for government’s borrowing – may grow at a slower rate in the near future given the worsening conditions in the Gulf.  As the country enters in its sixth year of economic slump, HSBC remains skeptical about a short-term recovery.  The public deficit is currently rising by around 20% per year, and the GDP growth rate is close to zero.”
Yayoi Segi, an educationalist and the Senior Program Specialist for UNESCO’s Arab Regional Office based in Beirut, works extensively in both Syria and Lebanon.  The education sector is, according to her, struggling:
“What has been happening to Lebanon particularly these past five years is really depressing. I used to actively take part in protests to voice my anger and frustration. But now I don’t know if they make any difference or change anything at all.  There is no functioning government in sight.  300,000 tons of unprocessed trash accumulated in just 8 months. There is sectarian infighting. Regional conflicts… What else? Lebanon can’t withstand such pressure, anymore. All is going down the drain, collapsing…”
Northern city of Tripoli - soon warzone again

Northern city of Tripoli — soon a war zone again?

But worse is yet to come.  Recently, Saudi Arabia cancelled a US$4 billion aid package for Lebanon.  It was supposed to finance the massive purchase of modern weapons from France, something urgently needed and totally overdue.  That is, if both the West and the KSA are serious about fighting the ISIS.
The KSA “punished” Lebanon for having representatives of Hezbollah in the government, for refusing to support the West’s allies in the Arab League (who define Hezbollah as a terrorist group), and for still holding one of Saudi Arabia’s princes in custody, after he attempted to smuggle 2 tons of narcotics from Rafic Hariri International Airport, outside Beirut.
The story of the Saudi prince is truly grotesque but ‘explosive’.  Lebanese authorities found some cocaine on board his private jet, most likely for the personal use of his family and friends.  But most importantly there was an industrial quantity of Captagon, which is not some recreational drug, intended for the underground nightclubs of the Gulf in general, nor for the notorious private orgies in Saudi Arabia in particular.  It is, as I was told by several local experts, a drug that makes one extremely brutal; a drug, which destroys all fear. It is a ‘combat narcotic’, which has been given mainly to the ISIS fighters.  It could have been destined for Iraq and the ISIS cells there, but most likely the Saudi Prince was carrying it for the Saudi allies in Yemen.  Or most likely, for both.
Lebanon obviously “crossed the line”.  It refused to play by the script painstakingly prepared by the West and its partners.  And now it is being slapped, brutally punished, some even say: “sacrificed”.


These are of course the most dangerous times for this tiny but proud nation.  Syrian forces, with the great help of Russia, are liberating one Syrian city after another from the ISIS and other terrorist groups supported by Turkey, KSA, Qatar and other Western allies.
ISIS may try to move into Iraq, to join its cohorts there, but the Iraqi government is trying to get its act together and is now ready to fight.  It is also talking to Moscow, while studying the great success Russia is having in Syria.
For ISIS or al Nusrah, a move to the weak and almost bankrupt Lebanon would be the most logical step.  And the West, Saudi Arabia and others, are clearly aware of it.
In fact, ISIS is already there; it has infiltrated virtually all cities and towns of Lebanon, as well as its countryside.  Whenever it feels like it, it carries out attacks against the Shi’a, military and other targets.  Both ISIS and al Nusrah do.  And the dream of ISIS is blatant: a caliphate with access to the sea, one that would cover at least the northern part of Lebanon.
There are several scenarios how the “fall of Lebanon” could occur. The simplest one is this:
Israel could execute another invasion, or even a “mini-incursion” into Lebanon.  It periodically does this, anyway.  And it keeps threatening, warning that it will do so again.  The Lebanese army is too weak to do anything to defend the country.  Hezbollah would throw its forces from the battlefield with the ISIS (in the northeast) down to the south.  There they would be tied down for at least several weeks.  And that would allow ISIS to move in, across the border, almost unopposed.  Dormant cells – “5th columns” – would be immediately activated.  The country could collapse within just a few days.
Lebanese leaders should be talking to Tehran and Moscow now, without delay, while there is still at least some time left to avert absolute disaster.  They should be openly asking for help.  There are always wide-open channels with Iran.  But instead of hosting a delegation that would try to prevent imminent collapse of Lebanon, Russia had to deal with a recent visit of Saad Hariri, former PM and the leader of “Future Movement”; a man who is openly anti-Hezbollah and, like his (assassinated) father Rafic Hariri, a staunch ally of the KSA, and on top of it, a Saudi Arabian citizen!
Coincidentally, here’s what Robert Fisk had to say about Mr. Hariri for The Independent on 3 March 2016:

The Sunni Lebanese Future Movement’s leader and former Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, is a Saudi citizen – as was his assassinated ex-prime minister father Rafic – and is now quite taken aback by the willful actions of a nation to which he has always given as much allegiance as he has to Lebanon. The Future Movement, it seems, did not try hard enough to ameliorate Lebanon’s official criticism of Saudi Arabia in the Arab League and should have prevented Hezbollah from destabilizing Yemen and Bahrain – even though there is no physical proof that either Hezbollah or Iran have actually been involved in the Yemeni war or the Shi’a revolt against the Bahraini autarchy, where a Sunni king rules over a Shia majority.



In the last decades, Lebanon has already suffered immensely.  This time, if the West and its allied do not change their minds, it may soon cease to exist altogether.  It is becoming obvious that in order to survive, it would have to forge much closer ties with the Syrian government, as well as with Iran, Russia and China.

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Eurasia News Online

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Lebanon in the 1970’s was a country of diversity, it’s population lived in enough peace that the country was a popular tourist destination, “Paris of the Middle East” I know, I went there. Religious factions lived alongside each other, Druze , Alawites, Sunnis, Shiites, Christians and Melonites, as the 1980s dawned USA bombed Beirut, Lebanon collapsed then, it has never recovered, hostages were taken and civil unrest erupted. USA declared Hamas a terrorist group, then declassified it in its help to overthrow PLO and in particular Yasser Arafat – USA has used Lebanon as it uses every other country it meddles in for its own ends, there is no intention of allowing this once poster country of peace and civility amongst differing religions and politics to ever flourish again.

mukul chand

unfortunate how the middle east has been torn apart

Anthony Hall

Lebanon is between a rock and a hard place.Israels enemies are being eradicated by Sugar-daddy, Uncle Sam; one at a time. Saddams Iraq, Gaddafis
Libya, and now Azad
s Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah defeated the IDF comprehensively and Netanyahu wants revenge. But does Israel want the Mad Dogs of ISIL on it`s border? Hamas would love that situation.

Seamus Padraig
Seamus Padraig

ISIS = Israeli State of Iraq and as-Sham


Reblogged this on HumanSinShadow.