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A Malaise Speech for the Current Time
(04-04-2017, 10:26 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:
PBR Wrote:If anything it is the Establishment that has a deep strategy.

Let us suppose that the Establishment does have a strategy--though the evidence for such a strategy is lacking--where has their leadership taken us?  Into the worst economic period since the Great Depression, which has lasted about as long with no end in sight.  A country that has gone from the top economy to one that is rapidly down grading, and an aging empire that is relying on the fact that it has a huge military and a reserve currency to back itself up. 

Indeed all it takes to constitute a threat to the Establishment is to hint at selling oil in anything execept Dollars:  Iraq, and Libya.  And two countries are already doing both and the US can't and won't do a damn thing about it:  Iran and Russia.  Why?  Russia we know is nuclear armed and I'd venture to guess Iran is as well--but even if they aren't they are allied with Russia.

In short the only tactic left for the establishment is thermonuclear war with Russia.  So unless you desire extinction for the species something else is required.

Or waiting out Putin.

Your citations of me are in blue, so that I can prevent some confusion between my old stuff and my newer contributions. .

PBR Wrote:America has lasted as a federal republic for 230 years (sorry about the typo) before Donald Trump became President and tried to act as a dictator.

For a dictator he sure seems ineffective if every other person who isn't screaming "Putin, Putin, Putin, and Muh Russia" is also claiming he's a dictator.  A decent dictator would have shipped you off to the gulags by now.  Hell, Hitler was a complete amateur and he had Dachau set up in months.

Is it just possible that Trump is not a dictator but just a President with a strong will--the Republic has had such presidents before, they come around when they are needed.

Someone seeking dictatorial power and questing it ineptly? Nothing new. Maybe he does not even understand that his style of rule is dictatorial and has no clue that a majority of Americans now hold his style of government contemptible and unacceptable. He could be out of touch with reality as a solipsistic man-child.  

Quote:Donald Trump is not winning friends from the sorts of people who usually vote Democratic. He has nothing to offer and he has little cause for trust.

Uh...the election itself says differently.  The man broke the Blue Wall for the first time in DECADES!  Is he going to get the ideologue leftists in the (Democratic) party?  Probably not, but those people weren't going to ever vote for him anyway so they are irrelevant.

Winning the Presidential election without winning the popular vote has happened before (2000). Disclosures are emerging that suggest that the Trump campaign hacked or exploited the hacking of Democratic party files to find weaknesses in support and exploited those potential weaknesses with targeted propaganda -- fake news. Yes, he was able to exploit economic distress that appeared years ago and for which there is no easy solution.

Like other demagogues from Robespierre to Lenin to Hitler to Peron, Trump offers a vision of an easy solution (just remove the scapegoats) and no practical means of achieving his goals. We are catching on to him, and when his solution becomes something like "Suffer for my holy greed, you contemptible peons" we resist.

Quote:(The Establishment) does not want the sort of regime that either creates a pre-revolutionary situation that can lead to the overthrow of capitalism and it doesn't want an apocalyptic war that can destroy the assets that the Establishment needs for its profits and class privilege.

Let us assume that this statement is correct.  How then do you explain HRC, a woman whose been in Washington since at least 1992 (and arguably before then), who has high connections with the DNC (among others) and who was saber rattling Russia was the darling of the Establishment politicians and establishment economic interests. 

Donald Trump has taken great strides down the fascist road. He is a big-government right-winger, which is less than optimal for the usual desires of economic elites like the Koch family. But maybe he can offer a more profitable America? One with far-cheaper labor and plenty of profits from sweetheart deals that bleed the little guy and military contracts for wars for profits?

Plenty of nations have or can have nuclear weapons and the missiles with which to deliver them to American cities. The most obvious targets will be our industrial base and our communication-transportation network. The Establishment owns or depends upon such. Its mansions and some of its favorite institutions (like colleges, opera houses, symphony halls, and art museums) would also be obliterated should a country like Japan get and use nukes. Don't fool yourself: people are going to kill Americans rather than walk into the holds of slave ships.

Is the Establishment fully admirable? No -- but it is not stupid and reckless. It wants to survive so that it can enjoy its class privilege.

Quote:I can think of nothing more likely to create a pre-revolutionary situation than to have elected her (a sentiment that the vast majority of the majority of states agreed with), and it is almost certain that when her policies began to fail and fail big that she would attempt to distract the public with an apocalyptic war.  It is almost like the left is a death cult seeing their own annihilation.

We will never know what President Hillary Clinton would be like. We know what Donald Trump is like to the extent that we know him as a liar, a bigot, an extremist, and a crony-capitalist. I expect even worse as time passes and we see more. Yes, every despot or would-be despot is different, and the American people make any attempt at dictatorial rule more awkward than it might  be in countries in which a few people own or control all the assets -- like Russia or China.

I am no leftist. I believe in checks and balances. I distrust extremism of any kind in economics or religion. I believe that the standards of ethical conduct have changed little except to become more universal in protection of people. I am quite conservative on drugs, sex, and educational content. Donald trump is no conservative even if he uses conservatives now just as he exploited the concerns of people in economic distress (for whom he intends to make life much harder without any compensation).

He is a mirror image of the late Salvador Allende. Should he be overthrown in a military coup as was Allende for eccentric and extremist economic ideas, then the Establishment will have found the military, law enforcement, and intelligence services useful.  Maybe we end up with a Pinochet. Should this be the result of Donald Trump, then we will be able to damn him...while we live miserable lives.  

Quote:A new serfdom might be optimal for a while for plutocratic elites, but fascism has a way of starting wars that leave industrial assets in rubble and puts asset-owners and executives at risk of dispossession if not imprisonment or execution.

Agreed.  Which is why most people in most states went with Trump.  We knew what we'd get with HRC.  Zombie Fascism that would Zombie walk us straight into a nuclear exchange with either Russia or Iran.  And I'm convinced that Iran already has nuclear weapons.

The UK, France, and India have nuclear weapons, too. I can think of plenty of other countries which could develop nukes very fast if they saw America as the Evil Empire that it could well become.  Japan has the resources; it can get yellowcake; it has an excellent scientific and engineering community.  The country dislikes nukes, and for good reason -- but it threatened to get them if North Korea  developed a nuclear arsenal.

In any event nothing could break NATO and the SALT treaties more effectively than the USA as an Evil Empire. 

Quote:Donald Trump has put the Republican majority in the House at risk, and he has little to show for it.  The next Speaker of the House could be a Democrat -- perhaps as early as January 2019.

Unlikely.  The (Democrats) selected Nasty Pelosi as their leader.  The only person at risk in the House are Rinos--and I'll gladly sacrifice them.  Besides who better to bully then (Democrats).  Offer a Health Care proposal and dare them to say no. 

Are you sure that she will be Speaker of the House? The time of the Silent influence is practically over. Besides, the difference between a Republican majority and a Democratic majority will be be Democratic politicians, many of them part of the Millennial generation. The Democratic leadership will need to appeal to them. The Millennial generation is a Civic generation, and it will have concerns typical of a Civic generation. Maybe the Speaker that the Democrats choose in 2019 should they get a House majority will be a Boomer or a member of Generation X -- someone who can relate to the concerns of Millennial adults.

Offer a good health-care proposal or even some cost-constraining reforms, and maybe we will have something better than Obamacare -- something more inclusive. Medicare at 50 or on offer to people with pre-existing conditions? That might make it easier for older workers to stay employed because one of the usual reasons for age discrimination is the cost of healthcare for older workesr of modest skills. 

Quote:Let us just suppose for a second that the (Democrats)  take the House.  They won't have it long--their ideology is in retreat everywhere.  Which is why it is they who are calling for censorship, and it is they who are calling for greater authoritarianism.

Nope. They are more flexible. Crony capitalism, the Trump way, is extremely inflexible and has only force and fraud (on occasion I like to lift phrases from libertarians) to make its exactions effective.

Quote:Things are not going according to plan for President Trump -- if he had a plan.

First this would require you to actually understand the plan.  I don't think you do.

Second this would require plans to actually go according to plan--which they never do.

It is hard to understand a plan that does not exist. One might as well try to discuss mythical creatures or oxymora. If one is an atheist one has little use for theology except to prove the non-existence of the Gods upon which theists depend.

Helmuth von Moltke Wrote:No battle plan survives contact with the enemy.

PBR Wrote:By 2020 Americans will have an idea of what sort of President they want.

I agree, which is why if the (Democrats) have a snowball's chance in hell of even getting close to the Presidency in that cycle they need to select someone who isn't an establishment politican.  Sanders is too old, and the (Democratic) bench is narrow.  I doubt that they will pull themselves together before 2024 as they are now doubling down on the very polices which got them booted out of office to start with--and of course the Zeds are coming up too and they are as right as Xers are.  Which is not surprising considering all their lives the nannying an pearl clutching has been coming from the left.

The major-league team that went 74-88 last year might have dealt off such fading stars as it has for players of promise from teams that don't have roles for them and has both a right-hand and a left-hand pitcher in AA ball who have nothing to prove in the minors, some 20-year-old kid who hit .265 with 19 home runs (he has plenty of upside), and some slick-fielding sluggers in the minors who have been incinerating minor-league pitching and have better chances of being long-term players than the 32-year-old fellow who hit .265 with 19 home runs and who can't cover ground as the younger guys can.

I am a Detroit Tiger fan. I remember 2003, when I remember hearing jokes about a team compared to the 1962 Mets like:

"A child was asked in a divorce case who he wanted to stay with.

'The Detroit Tigers -- they can't beat anyone!' "

Or -- "Do you know who has the greatest collection of Detroit Tigers' paraphernalia? Waste Management Corporation!"

Within three years they got to the World Series.

Quote:Do I have to refer you to Milo again?  Yes I get that he's a Brit--but he has his finger on America's pulse in a way you don't.  Probably because he goes outside.

I won't bother with the rest of your rambling as it is mostly typical whining from you.

I expect much from the Millennial Generation. Their teamwork and sense of fair play will shatter the gridlock that even an authoritarian leader with a stooge Congress  can't solve. Maybe it's a good thing that he is so inept. Competent performance of evil? That's what mobsters do.

Play ball!


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RE: A Malaise Speech for the Current Time - by pbrower2a - 04-04-2017, 11:49 AM

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