Bird flu: if symptoms persist, consult your stockbroker...

While scientists, politicians and laymen debate the gravity of the bird-flu threat, the financial professionals have got on with their job - telling us what stocks and shares to buy in the events of a global health catastrophe.

Research from the global portfolio strategists at giant American finance house Citigroup sums it up in a nutshell - sell British Airways and BP, buy Blockbuster and Nintendo. The lesson is that in the case of a serious outbreak, we will be too frightened to leave our homes.

The research paints a bleak economic analysis of the possible situations the world faces if the virus makes the leap from birds to humans. The worst case scenario - if the H5N1 virus becomes transmissable between humans - leads to slower global growth, rising risk aversion, declining interest rates and 'significant wealth effects'.

If the world suffers a virulent pandemic similar to the Spanish flu of 1918 which killed up to 50 million people, you should sell airlines, hotels and luxury goods companies, as well as oil, travel and hospitality companies.

On the other hand, the best case scenario leads to a temporary blip - the markets hate uncertainty - but this is, in fact, a buying opportunity, just as happened during the Asian Sars crisis three years ago. Buy telecoms, internet and, of course, drugs companies. 'While it is difficult to quantify the likelihood of a human pandemic, our analysis suggests avian flu is a rising risk to the global economic outlook,' says the report.

Or in other words: first see your doctor, then get a second opinion from your stockbroker.

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