MLB playoff odds Sept. 24: Nationals eliminated, Royals hanging by a thread

Jamie Squire

Taking a look at the latest MLB post-season odds from Cool Standings and Baseball Prospectus.

The playoff picture cleared up considerably on Monday, which is either good or bad news depending on where your allegiances lie. With all four of the NL's berths decided, the AL Wild Card is the only real race left. And the three clubs hanging on for dear life there need some serious help from the teams ahead of them in the season's final few days.

Let's look at the updated odds in the AL:

y-clinched playoff spot, x-clinched division Baseball Prospectus
Team Wins Losses Div WC POFF Div WC POFF
Red Sox-x 95 62 100 0 100 100 0 100
Athletics-x 94 63 100 0 100 100 0 100
Tigers 91 66 99.8 0.2 99.9 99.9 0.1 100
Rays 87 69 0 81.0 81.0 0 92.6 92.6
Indians 86 70 0.2 81.1 81.4 0.1 63.3 63.4
Rangers 85 71 0 33.2 33.2 0 42.2 42.2
Royals 83 73 0 3.9 3.9 0 1.5 1.5
Yankees 82 74 0 0.6 0.6 0 0.3 0.3
Orioles 81 75 0.0 <0.1 <0.1 0 0.0 0.0

The Rangers, Royals, and Yankees are still alive in the hunt for a Wild Card spot, but they're not going to get there if the Indians continue to win.

All three clubs made up half a game in their quests by winning with the Tribe idle on Monday, but only Texas saw its odds increase as a result. Kansas City and New York need to win out the final six games of the season if they want any real shot at that final playoff berth.

The Orioles are not quite eliminated according to the math, but they may as well be. Monday afternoon's devastating loss to the Rays was essentially the nail in the coffin for the club, made all the worse by Manny Machado's gruesome knee injury.

Now over to the National League:

Team Wins Losses Div WC POFF Div WC POFF
Braves-x 92 64 100 0 100 100 0 100
Cardinals-y 92 65 88.2


100 83.1 16.9 100
Dodgers-x 90 66 100 0 100 100 0 100
Pirates-y 90 67 7.0 93.0 100 3.9 96.1 100
Reds-y 90 67 4.8 95.2 100 13.1 86.9 100
Nationals 84 73 0 0 0 0 0 0

Washington's late-season run at a playoff spot has officially come to an end after their Monday loss and wins from the Pirates and Reds. Pittsburgh and Cincy have clinched at least a Wild Card spot, but both also have a chance of catching St. Louis and avoiding the play-in game.

If the season were to end today, the Cardinals would take the division. Because the Bucs and Reds are tied, and are 8-8 against each other, home-field advantage for the Wild Card play-in game would come down to which of the two had the better intra-division record (the Pirates, in this case).

The pair face off for their final three games of the season, so one of the clubs is going to come out on top in the head-to-head match-up. If St. Louis is unable to take care of business against the Nats and Cubs, there's still a chance that chaos will reign in the form of a three-way tie. Go #TeamEntropy.

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