Will 2013 be the year that everything changes? Answer: No.

Ben Parfitt, of MCV, wrote an opinion piece on how “2013 [could be] the year that everything changes” [http://bit.ly/SkUrMd]. It was written in response to the recent announcements at CES on the SteamBox(es) and Project Shield from nVidia.


Where it ever thus. The PS2 hardly had a dream start: supply shortages, pre-order chaos, a lack of games and poor reliability stunted its growth for the best part of a year. The Wii U and Vita are barely hitting their stride before the media’s narrative that video game consoles are doomed starts bashing it on the head like game of whack-a-mole. In comparative terms to the 1990 and early 2000s the sales numbers for both the Wii U and Vita are consistent. Most mainstream video game consoles - including the Xbox (original), GameCube, N64 and DreamCast - have sold around 5m units per year, with the market leader - Playstation, PS2, Wii - hitting around 10m per year. The sales of the Wii U and Vita to date, given that they are in the launch year, is consistent with what has gone on before.


Valve’s proposed solution to this looks virtually the same as Microsoft’s in 1999. Take existing PC hardware, put it in a box under the TV, remove the bloat of the Windows Operating System, get Windows game developers on board, and plug in a fancy new controller. Microsoft did this in 2001 with the Xbox and the Duke. Everything that has been announced at CES by Valve or its mysterious partners is essentially the same thing. The only real differences are a change in media - disk to digital - and the fact that they are going to attempt it on the cheap by using a licensing/standards model.


Take a look at either the Xbox Marketplace, especially the maligned Indie Games area, or the Playstation Store, or even Wiiware. For every Assassins Creed for £40 there is a Fez, Super Create Box, Bit Trip, Limbo, Escape Vektor, etc. Hardly a desert of Indie games and plenty of AAA titles. Whilst Steam offers an easier entry point for self publishing, it hasn’t cornered the market; far from it.

“Yes, many of us already have our PCs hooked up to our TVs and play PC games on the sofa. The arrival of Big Picture mode, however, marks the beginning of a process that will make the PC’s transition from under the desk to under the TV feel wholly natural, and importantly, very user-friendly.”

What is the real motivation for Valve to release its own hardware at this time? If it is doing so well, why look to create the walled garden it has often suggested it opposes? On the surface it appears to be Gabe Newell’s distaste of Windows 8, but I suspect there is a lot more to it than this.

The PC is increasingly becoming marginalised in everyones lives. What used to be the “digital hub” of the home is rapidly becoming redundant. There will always be fantastic gaming enthusiasts who will build their own mega rigs to squeeze out every last framerate they can from bleeding edge technology, and there will always be a market for this group.


For the vast majority of people however, reading emails, surfing the web, watching youtube, and playing social or free-2-play games is not the preserve of the plastic box in the corner anymore. They can lie on their couch and do it all on their smart phone or tablet. It is these devices that have caused the disruption, and it is this trend that Valve can see, and what is forcing them into action.


It’s not about how successful or easy Steam or PC based gaming is today, but what market there will be for it in 5 to 10 years. Steam has no presence in the smartphone or tablet world today, and even less of a future. Steam's games do not serve those platforms. If anything it is not video game consoles that stand on the brink, but the humble family PC. Valve needs to find a way to keep the PC relevant in the face of the smartphone and tablet revolution.

The digital hub in the home is no longer the family PC, it is “the cloud”. Whilst the smartphone, tablet and TV are how we access and interact with that cloud hosted digital media. Don't be fooled though, this is not about Onlive-style streaming, but about services: accessed, downloaded, streamed, and run on devices in the lounge. Microsoft know this, which is why the Xbox has turned into a Sky TV/Netflix box with Smartglass support; Sony know this; even Nintendo - bless them - know this. Clearly so do Valve. However, for some bizarre reason the video game press do not get it.

Valve need to move the PC into the living room to stay relevant and in control of their destiny. They need a device that hosts their store, and runs their catalogue of games. They are creating the Xbox again for the same reasons Microsoft did over 10 years ago. This is not about “the idea of consoles falling out of favour”. Quite the opposite. It is about selling a console - the dumb little box under the TV - that can compete with the smartphone or tablet for consuming digital entertainment in the home and from the cloud - Valve's Steam cloud (with a small c).


All evidence points to the contrary: Ouya, GameStick and now even nVidia are rolling the dice with the Tegra enabled Project Shield device; all video game consoles. Sure, they are likely to ditch disc-based media for digital downloads, but all these devices - from the Xbox 360 and PS3 to the Wii U, Ouya, and SteamBox(es) - are essentially the same machines: competing devices for the same space...under the TV. In this respect 2013 is likely the year in which very little changes, apart from increasing numbers of platforms and further market fragmentation.

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Fantasy Retail Rescue

With the news that GAME Group have suffered further embarrassment and loss of business today (Game shares crash as it misses out on Mass Effect 3 and Mario Party 9) I thought I share my ten point plan as to how I would try to rescue or restructure the group. I'm no expert, but I'm familiar with GAME group's earnings, reports and strategy.

1. Sell or close duplicate stores within 10 miles of each other. Close the worst performing stores, and where a GAME and Gamestation exist, prioritise on the Gamestation brand. The GAME brand is tarnished at this point, and their stores look tired and out of date: so rebrand all stores to Gamestation. GAME Group claim they have short leases on their property portfolio which should make things easy. This will bring the group's total number of UK stores down to around 250 from 550.

2. Have just the one website, game.co.uk, and thus have the two business entities: one as a high street retailer - Gamestation - and the other a webiste - game.co.uk. The current websites have a healthy 19% of the market share.

3. Dedicate the store space to selling hardware and software demo units. GAME are already doing this in their flagship store in Westfield Stratford City. People want to be able to try before they buy, and selling hardware is where a high street retailer can add value. Augment this with creative and constantly changing bundles with both accessories and games

4. Introduce a 2 year warranty on all hardware, immediately adding value at the point of sale over online competition. John Lewis have demonstrated how to add value as a high-street retailer. The margin will require prices close to RRP to cover the additional insurance.

5. Allow customers to browse and order back-catalogue games from within the store (kiosks of some kind), and offer next day home delivery or store pickup for reward card customers. Reduce the need to carry lots of stock - this was something GAME were working on. Have all in-store pre-orders sent to the customers home, or for collection in-store, at no extra cost. So you can pre-order whilst out and about and receive it when the game ships.

6. Strike a deal with publishers to offer Dual-Play video games that come with both a physical and a digital copy (for a higher price). Much as the DVD and BluRay industry has done. Include formats such as the PS VIta, PS3, and Xbox 360.

7. Scrap the current suicidal trade-in policy that has so harmed margins on new games. Only allow trade-in on games that are at least 90 days from their release date, and only against the purchase of a new game at full price. Pre-owned games to be located separately from new games. This will help reduce the current pressure on maintaining full price titles' margin, whilst still offering a valuable trade-up route for customers.

8. Create an online pre-owned store that can be accessed from shops and web, and route traded-in stock to this to create centralised stock-control of used products. This has the benefit of removing less relevant used titles from in-store, whilst still providing customers with the opportunity to pick up older titles, and out-of-print games, second hand.

9. Space permitting, take a leaf out of board game retailers, and hold competitions and gaming events at weekends, to encourage footfall. Tie in promotions, DLC, etc, and make the store a go-to place. Again, this is something GAME Group started to do in their flagship stores.

10. Sell off or wind-up the European and Australian stores with the exception of those in Spain and Portugal.

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PSN Welcome Back workaround

If, like me, you were unable to download the welcome back games on the PSP, it may be you have this problem.

If you have navigated away from the Welcome Back section of PlayStation Store without choosing your free games, or you exit the store completely, you may need to follow the below steps in order to choose and download your free games:

1. On your PlayStation 3 or PlayStation Portable navigate to the 'PlayStation Network' icon on the XMB

You will then be taken to the store to choose your remaining free games.

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Minerva's Den

I am a huge fan of both Bioshock games, but the DLC on Bioshock 2 has been a little underwhelming. With no interest in the online multiplayer, only the recent two packs have appealed to me. Thankfully, Minerva's Den, the last pack, was a revelation. Not only is it a huge 5-6 hour story, with new characters, locations, and plasmids. It is also a brilliantly told tale, full of interesting characters and back-story, and with a wonderful bitter-sweet ending. A must purchase for any Bioshock 2 owners. 

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Big Red Potion: Heavy Rain

I was lucky enough to get my Heavy Rain opinions aired on the wonderful Big Red Potion show last week. Details below...

It’s been the most anticipated game of this generation for the Big Red Potion boys, but does Heavy Rain deliver on our hopes or is it just all ambition without execution? That’s what Sinan discusses with regular guests and friends of the show Xantiriad, Jeffrey Matulef, and Dits Symeou in a great big post-mortem on the game, looking at its highs, its lows, and how the media and blogosphere has reacted to it so far. Joe’s absent for this week, but he’ll be back along with Eddie Inzauto in a mid-week return of the Co-op Mode show, so look out for that.


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Hold L2 to read my Heavy Rain thoughts

  1. "Wow! Heavy Rain looks fantastic". So much so that part of the immersion is how "real" the world looks: from the grimy to the sublime. However, the stunning visuals also set expectations on how the virtual work behaves. The more realistic it looks the more we expect it the conform to our reality.
  2. "Wow! Heavy Rain REALLY looks fantastic". However, it has been proven many times before that the seduction of amazing graphics only lasts a brief time. You have to include more substance than just looking good.
  3. "Why am I making the stupid gestures all the time?". Sony are due to launch a revolutionary motion control device later in 2010. Here is a game in which nearly all the interaction is based on the idea of metaphorical motions. Why on earth didn't Quantic Dreams and Sony not join up the dots? Why am I making bizarre stick movements to open doors and close drawers, when I could be swiping, pushing or lifting? To be quite frank: the gestures are a pain in the arse and pull you from the story/world. Why do I hold R2 to walk?I don't clench my fist in order to move? Many o f the action scenes are great to watch, but as a player I don't see them. I'm too busy looking for the next gesture icon!
  4. "Why is this world so inconsistent?" I have to make gestures to open a fridge or a cupboard, but in another room everything is either nailed shut or not working? I get in one car and have to manually perform all the actions. Then I get in another and do nothing? I can hold L2 to see my thoughts...until the last 3rd of the game when I suddenly forget myself?
  5. "Wait! That's not what I wanted to do" In places you are only given a few seconds to choose a dialogue option or act on something. Often the game will default an action if you don't select it in time (so that the scene can play out in real time). I actually managed to just watch entire scenes with the game choosing the options for me. It beggars the question just why do i bother? On other occasions choosing a passive response keyword like "X - Calm" results in the opposite effect, or the choices are obscured by "wobble" so that you pick something incorrectly. I can't see how these qualify as "interactive storytelling" if I'm not able to effectively interact!
  6. "Bah! That was a really underhand and nasty plot device". Only cheap soap operas and pulp novels would establish a mentally disturbed character by killing his son in such a contrived way. Not only did it illustrate lazy character development (dead son = emotional problems), but it starts the game with a low and it never mixes things up from there.
  7. "What a completely inaccurate diagnosis of schizophrenia!". The doctor, shrink, or whatever he is, clearly never went to medical school or studied psychology. The tabloid perception of schizophrenia is actually pretty offensive. Remember, if you are punting for gritty realism you have to be consistent.
  8. "Was Se7en really that good that we have a homage to it?" I actually really disliked Se7en. Visually stunning, it was however nasty rather than dark, and gruesome rather than sinister. Some of the most moving and disturbing films have very little violence, trauma or sadism. Gruesome torture or mutilation are cheap side-show tricks to illicit an immediate response, rather than an unsettling or thought provoking one. As a parent with a young child I actually found some of the content a bit sick, rather than emotional or unsettling.
  9. "Hey? Who? What? How? That can't be right?" I don't know whether the plot was re-written or it is just a mess, but there are holes as big as lunar crater in the story. Character development is virtually non-existent: player character motivations are never explored: How did the GPS get in the car when it hadn't been touched for 2 years? How do the data cards get the video on them when they are stashed in things (like the gun)? (I assumed streamed?). Why does Ethan not just push the glass out of the way? Why does Shelby never "think" killer's thoughts? Why is Shelby sympathetic to the shop-keeper and Lauren? Why did Shelby have a long police career and then start murdering? Who is Madison beside a hack? How come she's fallen for Ethan so easily? I could go on and on...
  10. "Wow! The sound design is brilliant, so why does everyone sound like they are on the phone?" Heavy Rain has superb sound effects and music, yet the cast all sound like they are in a phonebox?
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Deconstructing the "Pro Trade-in Argument"

The pro game trading argument goes like this: "Trading is good because it allows players with less money to buy new games on release. Without trading, new games sales would be lower". Most game resellers, like GAME in the UK or Gamestop in the US, use this argument to defend their trade-in policy.

Scenario: 10 people buy the latest game on release. 5 people trade in that game every 7 days. 10 more people buy the game each week; repeat for 3 weeks. Assume that 80% of buyers will purchase the cheapest game (either new or used); the game costs 50, and the trade-in value is 25 and resale 45.

Week 1: New sales = 500; Trade in = 0; Trade Sales = 0

Week 2: New sales = 250; Trade in = 125; Trade Sales = 225

Week 3: New Sales = 100; Trade in = 125; Trade Sales = 360

Week 4: New Sales = 100; Trade in = 125; Trade Sales = 360

New Game Sales = 950 (19)

Trade Sales = 940 (21)

So basically, as the new game gets traded-in the volume of new games sales decrease. As traded in games can be resold more than once the new sales trail off dramatically after 2 or 3 weeks. So whilst the sales in week 1 are strong, more than 50% of the potential sales have been lost to slightly discounted used-game stock within 4 weeks. Publishers therefore have to make most of their money in the first 1 or 2 weeks.

 Example distribution of a game that could be completed and traded within 7 days.

This model doesn't always fit: for games that are less likely to be traded, such as popular online games like Modern Warfare 2, the new sales are preserved by the lack of resale stock.

So, whilst it is almost certainly true that trading games reduces the overall purchase cost, it doesn't necessarily boost demand for the retail copy; in fact, if anything, it fuels purchases of the resold copies of the game as much as it does the new retail ones. A quick look at any game sales chart shows these trends: games often come in high on the chart and then dramatically drop down after 2 weeks unless there is a reason to boost the retail copy (i.e. lack of used stock).

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Bioshock was this generation's pivotal moment.


For many years, video games have been seen as a childish pursuit, something the the “mainstream” looks down on as being immature and unworthy. It all feeds into the debate about whether a video game can be judged as an art form. This point of view upsets me and degrades our hobby. We are constantly tarnished with accusations that all games involve killing and violence. Alright, so does Bioshock, but it is balanced with emotion and alternative play mechanics. We all know this perception that we are all immature and blood thirsty morons is wrong. I’m pleased, in some small way, that consoles like the Wii & DS are starting to dispel this myth.



Bioshock completely re-writes the rule book. Rather than follow the established convention it has actually defined a new form of “interactive story telling” which no movie, game, book or comic has previously achieved. Bioshock has a genuine claim to present video games as a new art form.





L'Angleterre est une nation de boutiquiers

(Written 22/07/2009)  

 "A nation of  Shopkeepers" ("L'Angleterre est une nation de boutiquiers") is how Napoleon once famously described our fair isle (although it was probably first coined by Adam Smith). There are two topics of conversation that all British people are obsessed with: the weather, and “the price of fish”. Well, not just fish, anything and everything!

We have a culture that is always skewed towards cheapness over quality: from badly placed government IT contracts and infrastructure projects, to supermarket produce and hooky DVDs down the pub. This obsession also skews our retailers and high-streets.

Walk into any shop and 60-80% of the stock is “on-sale”, “on offer”, or “buy one get one free”. It’s like no one will buy anything unless they think they are getting a deal. But of course, the retailer has to make money, so products now must routinely carry a higher recommended retail price to make margin so that it can then be artificially discounted.

Listen to many UK-based gaming podcasts and you’d be forgiven for thinking that the only thing that matters is the price. With the exception of often sound consumer advice on FrugalGaming, I have become increasingly annoyed at complaints about the price of video games, in particular those on Xbox Live and the iPhone.

I think a lot of gamers fail to appreciate just how much it costs to create a game, even a fairly small one. The average Xbox 360 and Playstation 3 game costs £5-15m to create. That is a considerable investment for any company to make. Only half of all games made actually break even. In the beginning of Xbox Live Arcade titles were small ports of PC games that were produced for less than £100k and came in under 50MB. Today, Xbox Live Arcade games can be anything up to 500MB and costs between £100k and £1m to make: for example Braid is reported to have cost $200k.

Given the dramatic increase in the quality, size, value and cost of an Xbox Live Arcade titles isn’t it inevitable that the retail cost must increase. Given the 200-1000% increase in production costs, it would not be unexpected to see a similar increase in the purchase price? However, most games are today are either 800 or 1200 Microsoft Points: that a miserly increase of 50%, or just £3.40. Are we really trying to say that we are not prepared to pay an extra £3 for games that have the quality and production values of Battlefield 1943 or Braid, or would we rather stick to playing cheap thrill ports like Wik?

Incidentally, £3.40 buys you:

A pint of beer and some peanuts

A fish pie ready meal

A copy of the TV Times

A Venti Skinny Latte

The iPhone has revolutionised handheld gaming, and has created a new wave of “bedroom” indie games developers. The App Store provides an opportunity for games developers to produce small, cheap games that can be enjoyed by the masses. Prices range from 59p to £5.99, with most games selling for between £1 and £3. Considering the more expensive studio games, such as Tiger Woods, it still seems incredible value when compared to the cost of the same game on a Nintendo DS or Sony PSP (£25+). Yet, I still hear complaints about the pricing!

So what is the underlying problem here? Is it because these games have no physical media, and so therefore our perceived value of the product is less, even if the game may be identical to a physical version of greater cost? Probably.

Maybe it is the method of pricing that is the issue? 1200 sounds like a lot of money compared to 800. But £10.20 doesn’t sound like a huge amount of money; after all it’s the price of the average movie DVD?

Activision recently announced that their premium titles would carry and premium price. Not totally unexpected. Modern Warfare 2 is likely to be the best selling game of the year, but also one of the most expensive games ever produced. The publisher’s margins will also have been squeezed by the dramatic increase in the popularity of game rentals and trading that become a feature of this generation.

Whilst the timing of this price increase seems opportunistic, I have felt for some time that the impact of game trading and rental, on the scale we are seeing today, can only ever result in forcing prices up. A similar thing occurred in the early 90s when rampant piracy on the Commodore Amiga saw the price of games increase twofold in a couple of years. Video Games cost a lot of money to make, and the main means of returning a profit is to sell disks. If the disk is being resold or rented then you aren’t making money on that.

The issue of retail price is further exaggerated in the UK by our obsession with “getting a deal”. I can’t remember the last time I actually paid RRP (recommended retail price) for a game, even on pre-order. There is almost an unwritten rule that all games bought online or on the high-street carry a 20% discount!

I have a feeling we are heading towards a very uncomfortable future. Retail copies of games are likely to continue to increase in price in an effort to claw back revenue lost to trading and rental. The publishers are keen to get their games distributed online, but that carries the burden of massive IT infrastructure; discrimination against those gamers who are not online; or who can only “trade purchase”; and the aforementioned perception that download games are overpriced or lower value.

Microsoft are due to launch their own On-Demand service soon. It is the future, but I can already hear the complaints from British podcasters; I might just have to take a 3 month holiday when it arrives!


Big Daddy – Bioshock (my entry to the Hi-Score Top Ten Bad Guys)

The Big Daddy is the iconic image of the 2007 critical hit Bioshock. Whenever you think about your experiences of playing Bioshock, two images spring to mind: the creepy yet charming Little Sisters, and her ever present gargantuan guardian, the Big Daddy. Dressed in an armoured diving suite, with either a giant drill or grenade launcher grafted on to its body, the Big Daddy presents a formidable presence of size, strength and brutality. 

The Big Daddy is, however, an unlikely “bad guy” because he isn’t all bad. His paternal nature means that he will completely ignore you -posing no threat- seemingly happy to lumber around escorting his Little Sister. Ultimately the Little Sisters are in the way of your goal in Rapture, and they carry the precious Adam that you must somehow obtain. Thus, reluctantly, you know you must take on and defeat the hulking brutes. 

Regardless of the difficulty level played, the Big Daddy always offers a significant challenge. Each Big Daddy encounter is normally premised with fear and indecision. Taking down the armour plated guardian requires more than a little cunning to succeed. Big Daddy battles are often savage, violent and prolonged. Bioshock successfully makes you feel every punch, drill and thump from the Big Daddy – often sending you dramatically flying off your feet, or stunned on the spot. In defeat the Big Daddy continues to toy with your emotions. The morally good player is confronted with feelings of guilt and repentance; made worse by the cries of grief from the Little Sister for her now lost “Mr Bubbles”. 

There have not been many games that have established such an iconic bad guy. Even fewer have established a character class so strong that, in itself, it is a metaphor for the game and world in which it is set. The Big Daddy is Bioshock. Plastered over the front of the game cover; shipped as an ornament in the special edition; and taking centre stage in the gruesome promotion video for Bioshock’s initial release. Bioshock 2 looks to be building its entire story with a Big Daddy as its central heroic character. I wait with bated breath to see if a promised Big Sister can match her paternal inspiration. 

To read the other entries in the top 10, visit Hi-Score.co.uk...

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