J.R. Smith (left), Carmelo Anthony (center) and Jason Kidd during the Knicks' loss to the Miami Heat on Sunday. European Pressphoto Agency

Although they let a winnable game against the Miami Heat slip away from them Sunday, the Knicks were probably able to draw some positives from that game. If nothing else, the Knicks, who have essentially been playing .500 basketball since mid-December, proved they can still at least hang with, if not beat, a red-hot, marquee team in a blockbuster game.

But the one argument the Knicks and their fans are undoubtedly clinging to—that they'd match up well with the defending champions in a playoff series—is becoming less true by the day.

The long-standing perception of the Heat is that they're a team that efficiently uses small ball, but struggles with gruff, physical opponents who pride themselves on rebounding. The weakness was on full display last season—particularly in the playoffs, when the Heat had their hands full with the Pacers before being pushed to the brink of elimination by the Celtics. They posted a lackluster 7-13 record in games where they got out-rebounded by five boards or more.

But perception is no longer reality. The Heat aren't better at rebounding (they're actually worse in terms of rebounding rates), but Miami has learned how to win without owning the rebounding advantage. They've gone 8-4 so far when losing the battle of the boards by five or more.

The Knicks—who are without Rasheed Wallace, their third-best rebounder by percentage—haven't shown a discernible advantage on the glass against the Heat, out-rebounding Miami by a grand total of just two boards over three games. Additionally, the Heat flexed their muscles by owning a 42-32 scoring advantage in the paint Sunday.

If there's one vulnerability Miami has shown, it's fading when the opposition gets hot from deep. Eight of the Heat's 14 losses have occurred when an opposing team shoots 40% from three. In Miami's 43 wins, opposing teams have shot just 33% against the Heat from the arc—a steep drop-off from the 43% teams connect on when they defeat Miami.

At this point, the Knicks understand the Heat defense, which is an aggressive unit that traps more than twice as much as any other team. Miami typically leaves the paint covered while two other players attack whoever has the ball at the top of the key. That forces the opponent to swing the ball away from the pressure, either bleeding the shot clock or inducing a long shot. (Miami has forced opponents to shoot with less than four seconds on the shot clock a league-high 14% of the time, according to Synergy Sports; it gets in the passing lanes and holds the fifth-best defensive turnover rate in the NBA.)

"You get a lot of open looks [against Miami] because of how they defend the screen and roll," Raymond Felton said. "They make sure Tyson [Chandler] gets nothing at the basket. So there's a [Knick player] in back open for the three, and [hitting the shot is] a big key."

On the surface, having open three-point looks isn't a problem for the Knicks, who are on pace to break the NBA record for three-point attempts anyway. During their blowout wins over Miami in November and December, the Knicks capitalized on Miami's gambling by knocking down a surplus of open perimeter shots. But there's diminishing reason to believe the Knicks can string together a hot-enough streak in a potential seven-game series with the Heat.

Before Monday's game in Cleveland, when they hit exactly 40% of their long-distance shots, the Knicks had gone a month without hitting 40% of their threes in a single game. Since November, when they shot 41.6% from the arc, each month has been progressively worse—37% in December, 35.9% in January and 33.6% in February.

Sunday, when the Knicks shot 8-for-29 (28%) despite having wide-open looks, was just about the worst yet.

"They were just giving us the three today," said Carmelo Anthony, who saw a steady diet of double-teams and premier defender LeBron James after a dominating, 24-point first half. "They were daring us to shoot it, but we just didn't knock them down today."

The Heat have given every indication that they'll dare the Knicks to shoot again. The question is whether the Knicks will be able to capitalize enough when that time comes.