@techreport{NBERw19339, title = "Global Imbalances and Structural Change in the United States", author = "Timothy J. Kehoe and Kim J. Ruhl and Joseph B. Steinberg", institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research", type = "Working Paper", series = "Working Paper Series", number = "19339", year = "2013", month = "August", doi = {10.3386/w19339}, URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w19339", abstract = {Since the early 1990s, as the United States has borrowed from the rest of the world, employment in U.S. goods-producing sectors has fallen. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we find that rapid productivity growth in goods production, not U.S. borrowing, has been the most important driver of the decline in goods-sector employment. As the United States repays its debt, its trade balance will reverse, but goods-sector employment will continue to fall. A sudden stop in foreign lending in 2015–2016 would cause a sharp trade balance reversal and painful reallocation across sectors, but would not affect long-term structural change.}, }