GDP growth: 1.2%
GDP per head: $45,680 (PPP: $37,430)
Inflation: -0.1%
Budget balance: (% GDP) -8.2
Population: 125.7m

With the mini-boom of post-tsunami reconstruction fading, the country will return to the low-growth, deflationary environment of the pre-disaster years. Early elections will be held, the result of a deal struck by the prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, with the opposition Liberal Democratic Party to push through a law doubling the consumption tax by 2015. Jaded voters will favour the LDP over the unpopular incumbent, the Democratic Party of Japan, but neither will win a majority. Over time the tax increase will help to tame the fiscal deficit, which is expected to be 8.2% of GDP in 2013.

To watch: Osaka restoration. The Osaka Restoration Association, the vehicle of Toru Hashimoto, the second city’s charismatic mayor, could emerge as kingmaker in a close-fought election.