Edition: U.S. / Global

The Executive Computer; One Day, Laptops Could Rule the World

By Peter H. Lewis
Published: March 31, 1991

Several of the newest laptop computers, including an eight-pound model introduced by the International Business Machines Corporation last week, have the potential to replace desktop computers in the executive office. The new laptops, and even some new notebook-size computers, come closer than ever to matching the power and features of desktop machines.

"This is the beginning of the end for desktop computers," said Bill Lempesis, editor and publisher of the Lempesis Report on Personal Computers. "More and more people will begin to use notebooks as their sole computer." He said he expected portables to capture 50 percent of the personal computer market by 1995.

There remain some obvious benefits to staying with a desktop system. For one thing, desktop computers are less expensive than comparably powered portables, although the gap is narrowing. And then there is the keyboard. With the exception of the new I.B.M. PS/2 L40SX laptop, battery-powered portables have keyboards inferior to those on full-size systems.

Beyond that, the color displays on portables are not only very small but very expensive. Some notebook computers feature 60-megabyte hard drives, which is impressive, but desktop systems offer far more. And unlike the portables, desktop machines have expansion slots that allow easy connection to office networks for sharing files and printers.

Even so, the trend is clear. Mike Webb, director of marketing for PC products at Advanced Micro Devices Inc., of Sunnyvale, Calif., pointed to a previous transformation. "There was a time when everyone had an adding machine or calculator on their desk," he said. "All those things have disappeared into the user's pocket or briefcase as portable devices. The same thing is going to happen with PC's. You might have a monitor on your desk, but you won't need much of anything else."

Others say that while the desktop machine is not a dodo, destined for extinction, the modern office will increasingly rely on mobile information systems, including portable computers, to complement desktop systems. "It's not an issue of replacement as much as it is of better integration of new technologies like notebooks into the desktop environment," said Mike O'Dell, vice president of systems development for the Dell Computer Corporation of Austin, Tex.

The trend to laptop and notebook PC's is being fueled by advances in several areas of technology, with implications for desktop computers and a forthcoming generation of pen-based notebook computers. The net effect is that while a customer must still make some compromises in choosing a portable, the compromises sting less.

Microprocessors are becoming more powerful while using less power, which is important for battery-powered systems. Hard disk drives are storing more data in smaller spaces. Advances in packaging technologies and integration are allowing circuit boards to be shrunk. Displays are becoming brighter, easier to read and capable of displaying high-resolution graphics.

The most powerful chip in today's battery-powered notebooks is the Intel Corporation's 386SX chip, which processes information in data chunks of 32 bits but which transfers those data to other system components 16 bits at a time.

The Intel 386DX chip used in larger desktop PC's receives and sends its data to the rest of the system 32 bits at a time, producing higher performance. The 386DX has not been seen in battery-powered computers because it sucks nearly an amp of power, and the nickel-cadmium batteries used in notebook computers today would lose power quickly.

The next generation of microprocessors, expected to be included in computers later this year, will leap beyond the power of the 386SX chips while drawing less from the machine's battery.

Intel last year announced plans to produce the 386SL, a full 32-bit 386 chip that puts minimal demands on a laptop battery. It operates at 20 megahertz, the same speed as current 386SX chips, and will not be a heavy drain on the battery.

Advanced Micro upped the ante last week when it introduced the AM386 DXL-40 microprocessor, a 40-megahertz, 32-bit chip that is now the fastest PC chip in production. The AM386 DXL-40 is fully compatible with Intel's 386 chips, and is better suited for battery-powered portables.

In practical terms, said Mr. Webb of Advanced Micro, the full 32-bit chips offer about 30 percent higher performance than a 32-16 SX chip running at the same speed. The next versions of the Windows and OS/2 operating systems will be able to take advantage of 32-bit chips, which will make the brawnier chips more attractive.

And while hard disk capacities are soaring, the drives are being miniaturized to fit into notebook PC's. The 60-megabyte drives record the data on spinning magnetic platters 2.5 inches in diameter. Several companies are working on drives that are said to store 80MB on a platter 1.8 inches wide.

The significance of such large capacity is that it is equal to or greater than that on the hard drives found in most desktop personal computers -- and that will permit an executive to take an entire information base on the road, rather than just selected files.

Many new machines have built-in ports that connect easily to a desktop color monitor, a mouse and a full-size keyboard. Those are the only items that really count in terms of user control of the system, with the infrequent exception of a floppy disk drive, which many notebooks now have.

Using a laptop as a main system has other important advantages. It takes up less space, which is always nice, and it can be locked in a desk drawer at night for increased data security. To facilitate the use of portables on the desktop, some new notebook systems also have optional desktop "docking stations" that indirectly provide slots for the same peripheral boards, network cards and even the larger storage devices used with desktop PC's.

"The extent to which laptops will replace desktop PC's is based on the infrastructure that will support them," said William M. Bluestein, an analyst with Forrester Research Inc. of Cambridge, Mass. "It's what I call the mother ship connection. You have to make that mother ship connection between the laptop and the LAN," referring to a local area network. He added, "That's the whole concept of the docking stations."

Several companies are reporting that they cannot keep up with demand for their 386SX-based notebook computers. AST Research's Premium Exec 386SX/20, which costs $3,395 with a 40MB hard drive, is in short supply. The Compaq Computer Corporation's LTE 386s/20, which costs a steep $6,499 with a 30MB drive, is also scarce, and "customers are screaming for the 60MB drive," a spokesman said. Dell recently introduced the Dell 320N, which costs $3,399 with a 30MB drive.