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Old December 13 2012, 07:14 AM   #2
Lieutenant Commander
Re: Global Trends 2030, US government site

We've become so jaded that the idea that by 2030 the West could be usurped by East Asia elicits yawns.

Yet if this happens by then - or if it happens ten or twenty years thereafter - it would be the first time the West had been overtaken in centuries.

I actually think it's a pessimistic outcome in some ways. The fact that East Asian tigers, Gulf petro-states, Eastern European post-communist states, as well as some nations in South America have made progress so rapidly is testimony to the fact that the technological frontier is not moving forward rapidly enough.

In a sense, we have today a situation akin to World War I. In the First World War, railways could deploy troops to the front rapidly but the front barely moved. I fear we could end up in a similar situation in regards to technological development.

We have to reject the notion that there is even such a thing as "developed nation". We're all developing, or at least we should be. Specifically, we need to be more focused upon biotech, nanotech, 3D printing, driverless cars, reusable rockets, thorium energy etc. than we are on the next tablet, smartphone, mobile app, hedge fund, or government regulatory agency.
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