Analysis: O’Brien would be atypical Congressional candidate, with the typical challenges

By James Pindell, Political Director
Published On: Mar 11 2013 03:42:43 PM EDT
Updated On: Mar 11 2013 04:14:15 PM EDT

Former Republican state House Speaker Bill O’Brien’s disclosure on WMUR’s CloseUP program that he paid for a poll testing a potential congressional run against freshman Democrat Annie Kuster makes him the most aggressive Republican in the state, so far, pursuing major office.

During his single term as speaker, O’Brien relished the role of ideological lightning rod, a role it is possible he would not have played if he hadn't had an ideological supermajority behind him on most of the issues.

His positions and his leadership style made him both the most well-known House speaker in state history as well as the one who caused out the single largest State House protest demonstration in decades.

In December, O’Brien handed over the speaker’s gavel to Democrats, who now hold the majority. He even stepped aside from leading his House Republican colleagues. Still, O’Brien is driving a political conversation in Concord -- as evidenced last week on the debate over increasing the state’s gas tax -- even as he curiously eyes Washington.

If O’Brien were to run, he would be an atypical candidate for higher office in the state. He would begin with a number of advantages. He would have more name recognition and a larger political organization than any other Republican even thinking remotely about a Congressional run against Kuster.

In fact, in a low-turnout primary O’Brien would be almost impossible to beat, unless he delivered some self-inflicted wound on his campaign. Ideologically, he is both known and beloved by the Republican base and his quick rise to becoming speaker shows his has good political instincts and is disciplined enough to implement a campaign plan.

O’Brien would also be unique as a first-time major candidate in that he would need to rebrand himself from day one. Most first-time candidates spend most of the campaign just explaining who they are, where they are from and what they believe. With the primary in the bag, O’Brien would be smart to go away for a bit, raise some money, and reintroduce himself as “O’Brien 2.0,” with a few moderate stances on a few issues that could help him with independent voters in the general election.

While O’Brien as a candidate would be atypical, his campaign would face the rather typical problems that any challenger to an incumbent would have.

The first challenge is in raising money. O’Brien has never needed to raise the million or two he would need in a congressional race. Given that Kuster raised $3.1 million to win last year, O’Brien is correct to suggest on CloseUP that anyone who wants to challenge her should get in the race soon and begin raising money.

The second challenge is getting any major players in Washington -- and the state’s voters -- to care about the race. Typically, members of Congress are only vulnerable in their first and second re-elections. After that period, the power of incumbency begins to be a bigger factor. Since Kuster is in her first term, she could be vulnerable. The fact she raises a lot of money makes her less vulnerable. Her Democratic Party affiliation also helps Kuster, given that she represents a district that votes more Democratic than Republican.

In 2014, New Hampshire voters could have a very exciting governor’s race, a U.S. Senate contest and an interesting congressional race on the other side of the state. O’Brien would need to find a way to attract attention to the campaign with the factors listed working against him.


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