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Thursday, January 10, 2013


Howard "has shown no deficiencies"

That phrase has me worried - they're not using words like "fully recovered" or "healthy." No deficiencies compared to what? Does that mean he's no worse than last year, when he ran like he had a cement block at the end of his left leg?

Seeing is believing...

April 1, 2013

From the last thread - No, I don't think Hamels needs a scope. But it might be prudent to get an exam on a very expensive player, signed to a longterm contract, experiencing shoulder symptoms.

Seems like a very easy thing to do.

A certain amount of soreness in pitching arms is expected. But Hamels was concerned enough to call the trainer. So, it may have seemed a bit more than usual to him. Shutting him down for a little while is fine. But a simple exam by the doctor can tell a whole lot. Just seems prudent.

Maybe Cole's chiropractor is on vacation.

Hamels seems to go through a "sore-arm" period in pretty much every season, so I'll hold off my worrying until I hear that it's something more significant than that. When it comes to Phillies-related worries, my plate is already pretty full.

Hey now, who started a new thread?

Biggio probably hurt people's impressions of him as a HOF by staying around a good 2 seasons after he was toast just to reach 3000 hits.

But he wasn't toast in his 3rd and 4th last seasons (age 38/39), garnering 105 and 104 OPS+ years. Granted he was a pretty bad defensive second baseman by then, but he had been seesawing between marginal and good since age 34. But that 3000 hit target was there and Houston apparently had nothing better. In his age 40 season, Biggio's 84 OPS+ was 3rd best on the team!

“I’m eager to see our young guys get an opportunity to steal some jobs. They should understand the urgency, too. We’re playing to win. It’s not just about getting jobs. We want to see the urgency to win out of them, too. If we don’t, they won’t be on the club.”

I interpret this as, "If Dom Brown doesn't have a good spring, he'll be an Iron Pig in 2013."

if howard was 60-70% at the end of last summer, which he appeared to be -- I have to presume with a full off-season of recuperation and preparation that he will be significantly better, in the 75-85% range. I would hope at least

Cole throws 35 innings and exits in May for season ending rotator cuff surgery. Bank it.

Does any team ever up-play the injuries of their players?

Col. Tom : no deficiencies means Howard is now able to hit lefthanders, no longer tops triple digits in K's, and is resolved not to make the final out in the phillies.playoff run this year.

ColonelTom - It probably just means that at his wedding in Dec. that Howard was able to do several numerous stupid dances including the Funky Chicken without any limp I bet.

Scotch Man - That would be the day that you see a ton of people post "Season=Over" which I would post too.

I really hope it doesn't come since Hamels is going to be one of the few reasons I bet that is team is really worth watching in '14 and '15.

Howard simply is showing no calorie deficiencies.

"Does any team ever up-play the injuries of their players?"

Just the Mets, but that's usually to explain why they p8ssed away their season, AFTER the fact, rather than before it.

I have been watching Ryan Howard a lot this offseason on the Subway commercials. He looks fine and should be 100% by Spring Training.

Jayson Stark tweets:

#Phillies have scouted Javy Vazquez in Puerto Rico, but Ruben Amaro Jr. says they haven't really gotten involved

Amaro on Vazquez: "We're flying at about 5,000 feet, just to see what's going on." Won't get involved "until we know what his plan is."


Vazquez last pitched for Florida in 2011. Here's some more:

Here is the most important statement in that article to me:
According to Amaro, Hamels “got aggressive” with his throwing program sometime in October. The pitcher, according to Amaro, “had some soreness” and contacted [head athletic trainer] Scott Sheridan.
In October this happened and he is back to throwing again. I think this is a non-issue and was something to fill up an article.

Phils scouted Javy Vasquez, not Amaro says their interest is only at a "5,000ft level" until Vasquez makes it known what his plans are.

The way I read it is that Hamels just underwent TJ surgery on both arms at the same time.

I wonder what the disconnect is there?

Hamels shoulder issue

Phils scouting Vazquez

Nice timing.

I wonder what the disconnect is there?

The ulna and humerus bones.

It would appear the Phillies are attempting to field the first team in MLB history made up entirely of players who've been declared legally dead. This should be a thrilling season.

GTown Dave - Impromptu 'Zombie Night' gimmick in Sept to move some extra tickets?


limoguy, allow me to amend:

"If Dom Brown, Darin Ruf and John Mayberry, Jr. don't have a good spring, they'll be Iron Pigs in 2013."

GTown, LOL!

Who's more important? Utley or Howard?

Dickson-- 50+ HR

Cole you're a pu$$y. Just pitch through the pain.

Dickson, that's tough, but I gotta go with Howard. When he's on he's an imposing presence in the lineup that affects how teams pitch other players.

RGIII, I may be a pu$$y, but I'm not dumb and arrogant like you, b8tch!

Lookout, catfight!!!

So Manny Ramirez was on my flight from Philly to Punta Cana today. As we were leaving the plane I told him the Phils need a left fielder and he just smiled...


What was Manny doing in Philly?

And I saw Bigfoot hanging out with Amish mafia after I was leaving gym. I said hey philles need an OF they all just smiled.......

I was getting a breast reduction.


I'd prefer that, rather than LV, they were dealt for someone who, you know, could actually do the jobs they'd be vacating...

All three of them in LV, awh? What outfielders are on the roster then other than Revere and Nix?

Howard "has shown no deficiencies"

Does that also mean he will be able to make a throw to either 2'nd or 3'rd base without it appearing to be a scene from The Bad News Bears?

Unless he goes on the DL and needs a brief rehab stint, I have difficulty imagining a scenario where Mayberry is an Iron Pig in 2013. He does enough things well, and is enough of a known entity, that he's certain to stick as a bench player. Plus we need a backup centerfielder.

cue Mini Mart...

Cole has always been treated like a royal heir to the throne. For his part, and unlike some guys, he reports all twitches, aches, and hiccups. If there was a real problem, Amaro wouldn't discuss it; however, I like the notion of a major deception plan, some strategic lying possibly connected to Vazquez. But what would he be trying to achieve? Aside from driving up JV's price, would it be to get another team to bite unnecessarily?

'42' looks interesting although I am curious to see how Harrison Ford can pull off playing Branch Rickey.

I was interested to see who they cast as the 'Reading Rifle' (Carl Furillo) since he was a distant family relative (cousin my grandfather)

MG: One of my biggest regrets was not going to Furillo's funeral. Especially when I saw the paper the next day, and saw who showed up. All pitchers, led by Koufax. Shows how much they appreciated his arm.

Howard is down to 295 now and spring training is still weeks away.

clout, sounds like he's on pace to show up in the best shape of his life.

Johnny Knight will play Carl Furillo and his IMDB page has no picture or info.

I was just a kid and only ever meet him once or twice. He had estranged relations with most of his immediate family which was kind of sad.

A ton of his former teammates and current Dodgers at the time did turn out though. Remember my grandfather was surprised at how big a reception it was including Peter O'Malley, Lasorda, and others showing up.

This thread header has done one thing: gotten me really excited to watch a Cole Hamels start this season. Nothing better than watching a starting pitcher who has his changeup working, and that's Hamels bread and butter. Can't wait.

The speculation that Hamels hurt his shoulder clearing debris from Hurricane Sandy is irresponsible!

That was me!

Roy: Is your ass sore from driving your tractor all the way from Texas?


limoguy, I didn't mean collectively, I meant individually. That is, any one of the three could wind up there.

Sorry if I wasn't clear.

Arizona has apparently gone beyond rumor trading Justin Upton to trading him to teams on his 4 team no-trade list.

J-Upton rejected a trade to Seattle.

Even worse here, and this is something I've had a sick feeling about for a while, is that he would prefer a trade to Atlanta. I have a hunch that the Upton brothers on the same team would elevate both their games.

With the other young talent on that team, adding a guy like Upton would just be stacking the deck. I'd be as scared of the Braves now as Jack was in 2010.

MG- Thanks for the link.
42 looks like it might be worth a view when it comes our.

Was reading an article on the HoF voting on Schilling , and they noted that his % vote was 38, same as his uniform number most seasons.
Probably old news to all but me, but it's an odd coincidence.

Good article by schmenkman. My one complaint is the breakdown of time periods without stating why those date ranges were used. It didn't end up mattering too much to his overall point, but you almost feel like you're being suckered as soon as you see 3 date range samples of 16, 37, and 34 being anayzled next to each other.

God, I hate the winter offseason. Everything is speculation based on sketchy information. Add a dose of BL pessimism and BL sarcasm and we are left with a lot of really worthless posts, just like this one.

Lake Fred: We welcome Heidi's take on Cole's sore arm.

Although I don't necessarily think the second half can be used as instructive for this year's team, I don't believe you can just outright dismiss it as meaningless. The 2012 Philles were capable, over an ~80 game stretch, of going 44-31. That's a playoff pace. So for those that said it's completely impossible for this team to win 90+, they're just wrong. Look what they did with The Gimp at 1B, Mayberry in CF, Tyler Cloyd, Kevin Frandsen, and Roy Hallablanton.

That's why I'm so anxious to see this team on the field. While little has changed on paper, there are so many variables that could swing either way, it's tough to predict what we're going to see. But they certainly have the capability, as last year's post ASB skeleton squad showed.

Ice, no one (should) doubt the capability. They're certainly able.

It's a question of whether they're likely to. I'm still a bit skeptical on that front, but of course the health of the big three is the biggest variable there.

I like seeing the Seattle names in the Upton deal. A choice of 1 top 50 prospect (they have 3 pitchers in/around the top 50), along with another well rated middle INF prospect and then two other young power arms. Thats a pretty fair deal in my mind. A lot of prospect heads are saying its too much, but when you have 3 top 50 arms, giving up 1 for a few years of Upton is worth it in my opinion.

Altho someone made a good point about Upton on a trade review I read:

Home: .307/.389/.548
Away: .250/.325/.406

Seattle is an extremely hard place to hit for power too.

Iceman - It's almost impossible to predict how this team will do until at least a few weeks into spring training. Need to see how healthy several guys are and how things are shaping up.

I do think it is absolutely critical for this team to get out the gate strong in April and be at least 3 or 4 game above .500 by the end of April after their first 27 games. Say a minimum of 15-12.

There are a ton of players on this team who historically do play better later in the year but I don't think they are capable of putting a dominant 2nd half run like they did in year's past.

Lorecore: I guess Heidi's dog spent more time on one side of Cole's toy dog backpack, causing Cole to have some soreness in his shoulder on that side. That has to be it!

"Oh man, awh is going to hate this article:"

Fatti, why would I hate that article? It's OK, and schmenkman lays the stats out, some of which I've posted here as well.

He also throuroughly supports what I've been posting here for weeks (in my running battle with DPat and others):

It's the pitching, stupid!

So, again, just why would I hate that article?

lorecore, good point about teh time periods schmenkman uses.

I have been criticized here for using what others call "arbitrary time periods".

Seems you thing schmenkman is doing the same thing?

Lastly, while schmenkman does a great job laying out the pitching performances Post-ASB 2012, I don't really see what Lee's 13.6 K/BB ratio (which I agree is likely to be unrepeatable) has to do with the end result - wins and losses. The Phils were 8 - 8 in Lee's 16 Post-ASB starts, and Lee had a 2.45 ERA, which is outstanding.

But Lee has put up similar and better ERAs over similar stretches, with K/BB ratios that are no where near 13.6.

So, while his K/BB ratio in the second half of last season was certainly illustrative of an outstanding individual performance, it is not in any way predictive of what Lee can do going forward - even with K/BB ratios that are far less impressive.

It is a really difficult argument to make that, even if Lee 'regresses,' his luck and the overall end results of his starts will be any worse than last year.

He had one of the most unlucky seasons by a pitcher I think I have ever seen.

I'd be really interested to see an examination of last year from a "team luck" standpoint. The perception, at the time and now, is definitely that bad luck pervaded the season, but you wonder how true that is quantitatively. I think the Pythagorean W/L was right at .500, for example, which belies the idea that losing close games was a major factor.

Lee was unlcuky in terms of his W-L record. His actual ERA/FIP/etc. seemed to be in alignment for the most part.

lore: his BABIP was elevated a bit and his HR/FB went up significantly. I think those stats, put into context to the rest of his career, point to being a little bit unlucky.

As far as W-L, it's no contest. Tough to compare 2009 to this year when he had 4 more starts, but I think he pitched pretty close to his 2009-2010 numbers when he had 8 more wins (in 4 fewer starts) and 6 more wins respectively.

Phils were 6-9 in his no-decisions last year, also. 12-18 overall in Lee's starts (.400).

Anyone think that won't improve this year?


lorecore, then the team was "unlucky" too, no?

As Iceman points out, despite pitching 211 innings to a 3.16 ERA on the season, the team was 12 - 18 in his starts.

YO, new thread!

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