

Viscount Monckton gives a presentation during the 2007 Conference on Climate Change
"Considerable presence" of skeptics

Updated 7/17/2008









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RE: Wrong again ...
By Brian H on 7/19/2008 4:06:01 AM , Rating: 2
The entire "science" consensus is an attempt to make invalid modeling and forecasting acceptable.

It is a PRIME ERROR to use "fit" to adjust a working model. The ONLY valid use for that technique, which is fundamental to what IPCC claims to have done, is to suggest possible relationships and hypotheses for inclusion in a coherent model. It is DEATH to use anything but explicit Popper-disprovable hypotheses and mathematical relationships in a predictive model. At most it becomes a disguised elaboration of the opinions of the "composer". At worst, an algebraic tautology.

The reason is that the process of "fitting" radically narrows the scope of the model to extant cases with their inherent limitations on significant digits of measurement. Attempts to extrapolate will spiral into more and more "by-hand" fittings until you are left with a Rube Goldberg contraption of weakly descriptive constraints with zero predictive power.

Which is the condition reached some time ago by the IPCC models. The egregious "sensitivity" plugs, and the reversed sign on the high-level albedo effect, are just two risible but deadly symptoms.

