Huffle, puffle . . . reshuffle

By David Broadbent
State Politics

June 19, 2005

When our itchy-footed Premier, Steve Bracks, flew out of Tullamarine on Friday to begin another overseas tour - this time to the United States, Spain and Japan, the last thing on his mind would have been the need to reshuffle his cabinet.

But with his Government struggling to generate momentum and break free from the branch-stacking scandal and the perception that it can't deliver infrastructure projects, a small but significant number of his colleagues are wondering whether a rejuvenation of the ministry is just what is needed. There is already speculation about the timing, and more important, who will win and who will lose.

Strategists close to Bracks deny there is a push for change in the short-term. It's a mere six months since the last shake-up, which saw Andre Haermeyer dumped as police minister and Mary Delahunty reduced to arts and women's affairs.

Tim Holding has made a flying start as Police Minister but Rob Hulls has barely had time to make any impact as Planning Minister.

It's the sort of speculation that infuriates the Premier. In the past he's been so determined to show everybody that he is in charge, and not driven by media pundits or ambitious backbenchers, that he's postponed inevitable changes until there is a moment of clear air.

When he announced the latest reshuffle in January, he asked reporters to believe he decided on the widely and accurately predicted changes during his summer holidays.

Even allowing for the Premier's need for an official element of surprise, everyone in Government, and the party machine, knows that the current crop of ministers is not the team Bracks will take to next year's election, nor can it be sold as the outfit hand-picked to provide visionary leadership over the next four - undoubtedly testing - years.

This is not the team Bracks will take to year's election."

Community Services Minister Sherryl Garbutt will almost certainly be retiring at the end of this term and there is a question mark over the future of Delahunty .

By his own admission, Energy Minister Theo Theophanous could face a tough preselection battle and Manufacturing and Export Minister Andre Haermeyer is unlikely to be named in the post-2006 cabinet.

In a similar situation, Prime Minister John Howard recognised that voters needed to know who they were getting after the election, and handled his reshuffle brilliantly.

Some state Liberals still say former premier Jeff Kennett made a mistake in not replacing six retiring ministers before he went to the polls - a mistake Bracks should be able to avoid.

The current cabinet is not especially old, but even the Opposition agrees the inclusion of Tim Holding, 32, and Jacinta Allan, 31, in 2002 rejuvenated the team and changed the political dynamic and there are plenty of younger and ambitious backbenchers who could hold their place in the team.

Reshuffles force oppositions to refocus their attacks and often render years of work on vulnerable ministers a waste of time.

Richard Wynne (Richmond) Rob Hudson (Bentleigh) Steve Herbert (Eltham) and former ALP state secretary Daniel Andrews (Mulgrave) are all considered talented enough to be promoted. Upper House member for Melbourne West, Kaye Darveniza, is also considered to be potential ministerial talent and there is speculation that when the new electoral boundaries are finalised she could switch seats to contest a country province that includes her original home town in the Goulburn Valley.

Despite the speculation there can be no changes until preselections are settled around November, but once the dust has settled, the Premier will want to move swiftly.

The next election is not due until November next year, but the campaign will begin on March 25, the day after the Commonwealth Games closing ceremony.

The new team needs to be bedded down long before then.

David Broadbent is Channel Nine's state politics reporter.
