US attempt to drive wedge between China and other countries over COC won’t succeed

Source:Global Times Published: 2019/11/25 21:53:40

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

US Defense Secretary Mark Esper visited South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam during his recent trip to Asia from November 13 to 21. As Esper sought to strengthen US relations with these countries, he also tried to drive a wedge between China and its regional neighbors.

Vietnam was Esper's last stop during the tour. Recently, Vietnam has taken a tough stance toward China on the South China Sea row. The country canceled Chinese action superstar Jackie Chan's planned visit to Vietnam on November 10 following the actor's public support for China's historic justification of its territorial claims in the South China Sea. 

Vietnam has been conducting unilateral oil and gas drilling in China's Wan'an Tan waters since May, which infringes on Chinese rights and interests. In this context, Esper's visit may draw the US and Vietnam somewhat closer and increase the Southeast Asian country's distance with China. 

However, the US and Vietnam are only using each other. Vietnam should be aware of these facts: First, China and Vietnam have common interests in maintaining socialism, while promoting "peaceful evolution" of socialist countries to capitalist ones has been a constant US policy; Second, although China and Vietnam have intense disputes over sovereignty issues, the two countries understand the importance of peaceful resolution. Since it is unlikely that an armed conflict will break out between China and Vietnam, the US only plays a limited role in stirring up trouble between the two neighbors. Hence, Esper's visit to Vietnam would not create a huge impact on the latter's relations with China. 

Esper has also been trying to drive a wedge between China and other Asian countries. During the ASEAN-US ministerial meeting of the annual ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting-Plus on November 17, Esper warned bloc members not to allow the guidelines of the Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea "to be manipulated" by China. In the Philippines, Esper said that the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty applies to the South China Sea. 

Washington aims to obstruct the signing of the COC. Yet countries in the South China Sea, especially Vietnam and the Philippines, are clear about their interests. Neither Vietnamese President Nguyen Phu Trong nor Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte would blindly follow US orders. They are vigilant toward the US. However, the two leaders may still try to use the US to contain China.

Randall Schriver, US assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, said before Esper's trip that the number of countries that join the US in presence operation, joint patrols in the South China Sea and "transits through the Taiwan Strait" is "on the rise." Although some countries are willing to cooperate with the US, such as in military exchanges, most of them with stakes in the South China Sea issue do not want to take sides. 

A minority of these countries might join hands with the US to oppose China. If they politically cooperate with Washington, Beijing will retaliate politically; if they unite in military terms, China will counteract in military terms. Although the US may give these countries some political, diplomatic and military incentives, it is impossible that the US will act as a protective shield. 

Facing US provocation, China should keep maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea together with countries in the region, especially seeking to speed up COC negotiations. If the US and some other countries directly provoke China, China must take necessary or reciprocal measures to increase the cost of opposing China. Beijing should also make it rewarding for regional countries which cooperate with China, which could help them act more rationally. 

The article was compiled by Global Times reporter Li Qingqing based on an interview with Li Kaisheng, a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

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