A report detailing what the Government believes is likely to happen in the event of a no-deal Brexit has finally been released.

The Operation Yellowhammer document was previously being kept under wraps as it sets out a 'reasonable' estimation of what Brexit will do to the UK.

According to the Government's own analysis, the UK could experience massive delays at channel ports, electricity price rises and delays to medicine imports, reports NorthWalesLive .

The Operation Yellowhammer report, which the government previously refused to release, is a synopsis of the "reasonable worst case planning assumptions" as a result of Brexit.

The five-page document, some of which had previously been leaked to the Sunday Times newspaper, was released after MPs voted for it to be revealed.

It states that from the end of October, all rights and reciprocal arrangements with the EU will end, with relationships with other member states "unsympathetic" as a whole.

It describes how authorities could have to deal with civil obedience, delays, price rises and travel disruption.

Sections also warn of months of delays at borders, impacts on medicines for animals and some food shortages.

The government was warned of a rise in civil disorder as a result of no-deal Brexit.

The document said: "Protests and counter-protests will take place across the UK and may absorb significant amounts of police resource.

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"There may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions."

Channel ports

The government added that France will impose EU mandatory controls on UK goods "on day one [of] no deal" and have built infrastructure and IT systems to manage and process customs declarations and support a risk-based control regime.

The document said that from day one of "no-deal", "between 50-85% of HGVs travelling via the short Channel Straits may not be ready for French customs.

"The lack of trader readiness combined with limited space in French ports to hold 'unready' HGVs could reduce the flow rate to 40-60% of current levels within one day as unready HGVs will fill the ports and block flow", it adds.

"The worst disruption to the short Channel Straits might last for up to 3 months before it improves by a significant level to around 50-70% (due to more traders getting prepared), although there could continue to be some disruption for significantly longer.

"Disruption to flow across the short Channel Straits would also cause significant queues in Kent and delays to HGVs attempting to use the routes to travel to France.

"In a reasonable worst-case scenario, HGVs could face maximum delays of 1.5-2.5 days before being able to cross the border."


It adds that there could be impacts on the supplies of medicine and medical supplies if disruption is left unmitigated for a long period of time.

The document said: "The reliance of medicines and medical products' supply chains on short straits crossing make them particularly vulnerable to severe extended delays; three quarters of medicines come via the short straits.

"Supply chains are also highly regulated and require transportation that meets strict Good Distribution Practices.

"This can include limits on time of transit, or mean product must be transported under temperature controlled conditions.

"Whilst some products can be stockpiled, others cannot due to short shelf lives - it will also not be practical to stockpile products to cover expected delays of up to six months.

"The Department for Health and Social Care is developing a multi-layered approach to mitigate these risks."

It adds that disruption to medicines for animals would "reduce our ability to prevent and control disease outbreaks, with potential detrimental impacts for animal health and welfare, the environment and wider food safety/availability and zoonotic diseases which can directly impact human health".


The document says UK citizens travelling to and from the EU "may be subject to increased immigration checks at EU border posts".

It warns: "This may lead to passenger delays at St Pancras, Cheriton (Channel Tunnel) and Dover where juxtaposed controls are in place.

"Dependent on the plans EU member states put in place to cope with these increased immigration checks, it is likely that delays will occur for UK arrivals and departures at EU airports and ports.

"This could cause some disruption on transport services. Travellers may decide to use alternative routes to complete their journey."

Food and drink

On food, it warns that some fresh supplies will decrease and that "critical dependencies for the food chain" such as key ingredients "may be in shorter supply".

It says these factors would not lead to overall food shortages "but will reduce the availability and choice of products and will increase price, which could impact vulnerable groups".

They added that there was a risk that "panic buying" will cause or exacerbate food supply distribution".

The risk to water supplies is low, it says, with water companies "well prepared for any disruption".

They said the biggest risk would be a failure in the "chemical supply chain", but the likelihood of this taking place is low.

The document added: "Low-income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel.

Other risks

The document adds that there will be "disruption in law enforcement data sharing between the UK and EU" and that the adult social care sector could be "significantly impacted".

They also warn that EU fishing vessels could enter UK waters illegally, which could lead to clashes with members of the UK fishing sector.

The document adds: "There are likely to be significant electricity (price) increases for consumers"

It does state that this would be over months or years rather than immediate, and will be no disruption to electricity or gas supplies.

The document said: "UK nationals will lose their EU citizenship and, as a result, can expect to lose associated rights and access to services over time, or be required to access them on a different basis to now."