Index > Interview
Tuesday, January 14, 2020
How does ANBOUND predict that the U.S. Dow will break the 30,000-point mark?

Question: At the time of the most intense trade friction between the United States and China, many people would not believe that three years after President Donald Trump was elected, the Dow would rise by 11,000 points, which is about to exceed 29,000. This in effect sets its fastest growth rate in the last three years. However, on September 26, 2019, ANBOUND's chief researcher Chan Kung boldly predicted that the U.S. stock index would eventually break through the 30,000-point mark. Is the reality now getting closer and closer to the forecast?

Chan Kung: What we see in news reports are all opinions. Among them, some are logical analysis, and some are ordinary comments without logical background. The same is true for the prediction of the U.S. stock index. The key issue is the judgment of the background of the U.S. economic growth. First of all, as I have previously pointed out in the past, the U.S.-China trade war will definitely reach a phased agreement because neither side can afford the full consequences of trade decoupling. Then, there is the stabilization of oil prices. Comprehensive assessment of global energy prices shows that there will not be much fluctuation in 2020, and the price level in 2019 will be roughly maintained, as long as the United States does not make serious systematic mistake, it is expected that the U.S. stock market will break through 30,000 points. In the then pessimistic time, I was optimistic about the prospects of the U.S. economy three months ago, and this is the fundamental reason for making such predictions. However, this forecast does not represent a longer-term trend. I think that after 30,000 points, which is the highest level of U.S. stocks in recent years, there will be a lot of struggles.



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