Saturday, August 8, 2020

Making Value Betting a Reality

Consistently successful bettors handicap literally dozens of factors, including performance data from hundreds of past races. Although one might be able to handicap the races by hand, it is a very time-consuming and error-prone task. Now that personal computers are widely available, much of the tedium can be removed from the handicapping process. All you need, in addition to the raw performance data, are strong computer programming skills and a thoroughly tested model of race horse performance.

Does that sound intimidating? It should. Dr. Dave Johnson and Dr. Jerry Kenley have combined a lifelong study of economics and statistics with an enduring passion for thoroughbred horse racing. Through thousands of hours of painstaking research, experimentation, and refinement, they have created a very strong model of race horse performance. They then recruited a team of experienced programmers to develop powerful computer software that uses their model to determine a horse's true chance of winning.

Based on each horse's win probability, an odds line is created. This odds line gives you power at the track by helping you determine which horses offer the best value.

Some professional handicappers give you a narrative discussion of a horse's strengths and weaknesses. Others give you snappy key words ("out winging," "fires when fresh," or "flying late"). But when, and how, should you actually bet on a horse?

The Thoroughbred Valuline is the answer. Each day, for every race, for every win contender, it gives you the odds which reflect a horse's true chance of winning the race. If the actual tote odds are above the Valuline odds, the horse is a good value and can be bet, with the assurance the odds are in your favor.

Value betting is the key to making profits at the track. And the Thoroughbred Valuline is the key to discovering the value bets.

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