Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #fed

Most recents (24)

#US #IndustrialProduction numbers were released yesterday for Apr-end. The picture isn't pretty. Showing below how bad it was in the last 2 months in actual numbers. (comparing Feb-end with Apr-end; Grey areas show previous recessions). The index itself declined 15.3% (1)
PART1: Industries underperforming the IP Index

1. #MotorVehicles & Parts - down 80% in 2 months. It's the LOWEST since 1972. (2)
2. #DurableConsumerGoods - down 47% in 2 months (3)
Read 17 tweets
Merryn obviously doesn’t see the irony of holding up 1930s America as providing examples of government programmes (whether under Hoover or Roosevelt) which worked, swiftly, fairly, and with few malign consequences.

But, no, debt is NOT the answer.

The state arbitrarily (possibly, illegally) shut businesses down: to demand repayment is like extracting a kidnap ransom by instalment.

So, what to do? 2/x
Debt should firstly commuted to a tax credit. Moves from liability to asset side of balance sheet which addresses the leverage (and hence creditworthiness) problem.

Most immediately rewards firms which most rapidly return to profitability once free to operate. 3/x
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.@WarrenBuffet on
Why he's not buying stocks in size: sensitivity to tail events and the '08 reminder "we don't see all the problems the first day."
On whether others should buy now: Only if you expect to hold for a long time and are financially and psychologically ready to do so
@warrenbuffet .@WarrenBuffett repeated what Charlie Munger told the @WSJ earlier on why #BerkshireHathaway didn't repeat the 2008-09 experience of lending to stressed companies:
"We haven't seen anything attractive," especially after the #Fed quickly opened the #markets for companies to borrow
@warrenbuffet @WarrenBuffett @WSJ In continuing to express relative caution overall, @WarrenBuffett stresses that, when it comes to the impact of the #CoronaVirus shock;

- "You can't rule out any possibility" and

- #BerkshireHathaway wants to be prepared for many possible scenerios.

#markets #economy #COVID19
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World Vs India !!!
Our handling of Corona was good Vs rest of world. The positive cases, death rates, recovery rates all good. The treatment to the real damage is still unanswered. Remember the world was in lock down and we were also under lock down and now the real test is...
How well we are going to handle economic damage due to this lock down..? The real recovery in the mkt and economy would be purely based on it only. Some eg:-
~ US has recorded 33 mil job losses so far which is approx equal to 10 yr job creation what they have.
~ Their stimulus..
So far is approx 2.7 trillion which is almost equal to India GDP nos.
~ US is printing dollar and may increase it based on the necessity. #Fed has already shown their willingness to inject more liquidity if needed.
~ US will have to bail out more firms in events of failure..
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Another canard currently doing the rounds is this whole, "Yields are low ergo public debt is no burden - and yields must STAY low or it WOULD quickly become one, far too heavy to bear" schtick.

#UST #Treasury #Fed #deficit 1/x
Clearly no-one understands the difference between real costs and virtual, financial ones.

The State's gross mishandling of the #coronavirus crisis has destroyed or impaired tremendous amounts of productive #capital - a loss which should neither be understated nor camouflaged 2/x
The fact that the gazillion new IOUs #UST has issued as a partial (and temporary) recompense for this will come with artificially low interest rates is absolutely NO cause for cheer: in fact, quite the converse. 3/x
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So, would Sunday be a good day for another attempt to explain the fragility of the global #economy?

Thought so. 😉

So, here goes. A thread explaining, why our economies are so fragile and what should be done.

A natural starting point is this. 👇 1/
I consider the above to be the most important figure of the 2010s, in addition to the global CB balance sheet.

What the figure implies is that the global productivity growth stagnated in 2012.

This is something that should not happen outside economic crises, so what gives? 2/
Long-term economic growth is driven by technical innovations, like the spinning-jenny, which improve the productivity, that is, the efficiency of production.

Effectively, they increase the productivity of a human worker, which increases his wage and makes products cheaper. 3/
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Many seem to be unwilling or unable to grasp the dire economic consequences of the #COVID19 pandemic.

In this thread I try, based on the evolution of our thinking, to explain, why we are heading to a deep and prolonged depression.

First, an intro and a reminder. 👇1/17
The situation in the world #economy would not be so alarming without this. 👇

We have lived in unprecedented economic expansion with stagnated productivity growth!

I cannot stress enough, how strange and troubling this is. 2/
We analyzed its implications thoroughly in the March 2019 issue of our Q-Review.

"Because zombie companies can fail at any time, ..., they create a huge risk for both private investors and the global asset markets." 3/…
Read 17 tweets
@VOLG_DE_DATA @wmiddelkoop 1) This is a very hard question to answer. US #gold has not been audited since the 1950's and there are rumours that much of the gold in Fort Knox has been replaced by fakes. Rob Kirby claims to "know folks who have copies of the original shipping docs".…
@VOLG_DE_DATA @wmiddelkoop 2) Hence the question to Q, with his interesting replay that the #US has the #gold and that it shall destroy the #FED.

What we know is that currently the #FED is printing dollars #Weimar style, which can be expected to result in #hyperinflation.
@VOLG_DE_DATA @wmiddelkoop 3) Alan Greenspan warned about this a while ago and talked about returning to the #gold standard. Remarkably, he mentioned the time before 1913, when the #FED was established:…
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Proposition: #Banks won't rally because rates -long & short- are too low; #Japan is our marker, banks there falling while US/#EZ rose pre-#GFC, not gaining afterward; Also v-a-v EZ peers, #US bank returns were anomalous, ergo can't be repeated. 1/x
Response: Banks make money by increasing charges in the absence of NIM
NB: When long rates are artificially suppressed & flattened to/thru 0%, opportunity cost vanishes and demand for money -as a savings medium, not a transactional tool - RISES 2/x
It wasn’t low rates per se that held #Japan banks back, post 1989, but scattered failures and an heroic amount of write-offs and restructurings of their toxic, bubble-era legacy - something which helped the country’s eventual, creditable real per capita GDP recovery. 3/x
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People trying to draw analogies with the #GreatDepression, wartime, or 70s stagflation are missing the point IMHO 1/x
GD was a ‘sudden-stop’ shock which ended the credit-boom lending to Weimar as the Young Plan looked in jeopardy. Made worse by politics (war debts, etc), #protectionism (Smoot-Hawley), Hoover call to maintain wage-rates, #FX chaos (esp. when Brits left #gold standard) 2/x
The initial slump & ‘secondary (financial vicious cycle) depression’ then perpetuated by #NewDeal boondoggle vote-buying, #FDR capriciousness, & Brain Trust cranks. This was much more a post-#GFC parallel than today’s #ContaminoBay #lockdown 3/x
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💠Game Theory

🔷 Each player considers situation and strives for objectives

🔷 Opposing objectives at dual (game) time

🔷 #PatriotsInControl have everything, know opponents playbook

🔷 #CabalTakedown Cabal has no alternative but to proceed existing #NWO plan

Black Hats
operation to
1) DESTROY re-election of #Trump
2) continue Plan for #NWO control by micro-chipping / forced vaccination

White Hats
timing to
3) Remove Globalist control via #rothschilds central banking system
4) Re-boot global system outside Cabal control
#COV19 – Cabal

1) DESTROY #Trump prevent re-election

🆘 Use Fear to drive #narratives
🚷 Use Crisis to adjust election laws
🆘 Protect Biden
📛 Hinder #VoterID
❌ Smash #Trump economy
💯 Chaos, mayhem, panic
Read 7 tweets
1/. Stock markets are surging on “Corona news is better than modelled”.

The amount of deaths is irrelevant to a pricing system, only the perceived economic impact.
2/. This “Hope” that we can get back to normal sooner will likely last a while longer, as we are still early in the Cycle. (Recent March lows marked new cycle).
3/. Going further out though, recurrences of #coronavirus popping up in the US and throughout the world will lead to rather shutdowns and slowdowns. The cumulative disruptions will cause a real drag on economies and therefore, earnings.
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This is something I've planned to do for a long time. There are wide-spread misconceptions on #centralbanks that need to be set straight.

So, a (long) thread on why Central bankers are not "superheroes".

Let's start with a cheerful poll. 😊 1/26
#Fed #ECB #economics
It seems that majority of my followers are both insightful and wise 👍.

The results also lead to the conclusion, which I now try to elaborate a bit more. 2/
@Amdalleq @CNBCJulianna @KellyCNBC @DiMartinoBooth @KatriKulmuni @bondstrategist @BradHuston
First, few words on QE.

The purchases of assets in QE-programs are done through commercial banks.

Banks buy the securities from other banks, investors and households and the central bank credits the reserve balances to the accounts of banks to balance their balance sheet. 3/
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Largely because (a) the injections functioned differently last time as it was primarily a financial seizure, not a real one; (c) the real assets which did deflate -RE- are the very ones which have since most risen in price (“inflated”); (d) intl division of labour then undamaged
Somewhat risible to say no fiscal response last time, even if this one is shaping up to dwarf it. That’s just #Keynesian dinosaurs trying to say only their Master’s nostrums can work.
Worry is, we redo the 30s: lacklustre growth as too big a Boondoggle state exploiting its edge.
The state runs only the softest of soft budgets, is the most wasteful, least productive, most monolithic, least innovative of spenders. Backed up by a compliant #centralbank -monetary ‘authority’ is now a joke!- that implies lots of (misdirected) demand for not much extra supply
Read 7 tweets
I prepared a few notes for the guys @SquawkBoxEurope

Happy to share them here with you:-

Even before #coronvairus struck, there were signs taht the bloom was off the rose:-
Exposures were high going in and - in some cases - have only gone up amid the turmoil:-
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🌎 It's now time to create a new tweetstorm more focused on 2Q impact.

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Ok #Patriots let’s think about this..numbers for #Covid_19 are low in our #Hospitals . What would we #Quarantine and clear out hospitals for ? Especially in a #shutdown ? If all “legit” business operations will get #stimulus then what happens to the “non-legit”?...
...well they are in suspense! Running low on drugs and money. #mercy and #comfort are what would be needed to help #withdrawal victims. Right ? Why else send them to the largest #drug areas in the #USA ? Where else would the most unfortunate section of humanity...
...go? What if all drugs (illegal) run out ? Because the plan is to hold out on them. Then not stimulate anything that can’t be verified through the #Fed ? #TrustThePlan #Q has told us #WWG1WGA . #Addicts are part of us all and we know they have been sunk into darkness...
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What is the Federal Reserve?

What is Private Central Banking?

Who controls the money supply?

Please help me by posting:

All for the purpose of exposing and understanding the FED

Comment your breadcrumbs and RT!

I highly recommend watching this 3 hour video.

It explains the foundations of Central Banking for the last 1000 years

And how the Federal Reserve is our 6th! Central Bank!

Read 11 tweets

What Is the Federal Reserve System?
The Federal Reserve System (FRS) is the central bank of the United States. The 'Fed,' as it is commonly known, regulates the US🇺🇸monetary & financial system. #Money
@realDonaldTrump @GenFlynn…

Watch this excellent historical video that will clarify & answer this question! #MoneyForThePeople #FederalReserveSystem #banks

ThanQ 🙌 ColdFusion >UTube
@realDonaldTrump @GenFlynn

Note u're choice. Are u in agreement? Why / why not?
Read 11 tweets
Though it hardly needs to be said, there are few historical precedents for us to look to that are truly comparable to recent #Fed policy moves. The 2008/09 #GFC is an obvious analogue, but the pace and extent of #policy moves is even eclipsing that.
Another potential point of reference is the Second World War when, following Pearl Harbor, the @federalreserve pledged that it would be: “prepared to use its powers to assure at all times an ample supply of funds for financing the war effort.”
That stance, in effect, left the @federalreserve’s System Open Market Account’s (#SOMA) size at the mercy of #Congress and the Administration, which is a clear example of the #Fed doing “whatever it takes” to prevent unwanted increases in #yields to fund #fiscal crisis response.
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#QAnon #TheStormIsHere #Q

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