The advent of a long-awaited El Niño climate event could have a calming impact on the balance of winter in the Rochester-Finger Lakes region.

Whether it makes any difference in the spring is up in the air.

Government experts announced last Thursday that an El Niño had begun. That's the term of a periodic warming in the eastern Pacific Ocean that can alter weather patterns over North America.

As the Democrat and Chronicle reported last fall when talk had begun of a looming El Niño, the phenomenon often brings this part of upstate New York lighter-than-normal snowfall and higher-than-usual temperatures.

Even though the El Niño didn't officially begin, that's exactly what we've had to date.

Though we've had our share of big snowfalls, total snow since Dec. 1 is down about 10 inches, or 16 percent, compared to the long-term average.

And while the mercury has dipped below zero a few times, the average temperature since Dec. 1 is about 2 degrees, or 8 percent, above the long-term average.

The impact of El Niño isn't ironclad; as we reported last fall, some of our most foul winters were associated with El Niño events.

But the smart money would say the rest of this winter is more likely to be relatively mild and light on snow than not. Various forecasts suggest the Rochester region will experience above-average temperatures at least through the end of the month, though early March could be chilly.

The impact of El Niño on springtime weather is less clear. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration cited research several years ago that shows a strong correlation between El Niño and springtime precipitation in some parts of the country.

The mountain states and the upper Great Lakes states tend to get less spring rain than normal while the South gets more.

But in this part of upstate New York, the research found no such no correlation exists.


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