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Author: leaderoftheback Three stars, 500 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 328  
Subject: If you believe in charting Date: 12/7/2012 8:18 AM
Recommendations: 2
The EBIX technical charts are really more like chicken guts at this point, but they at least suggest a certain reality. I'll put it out there now; the next technical stop on the down-side is actually in the $8s. That means there is a real possibility of EBIX going there, barring the only obvious positive catalyst; explanation. If it falls through the $8s, the next stop is in the $5s...about where it started.

Consider what has been going on with this company; good news and rumor. It has to shake out eventually. If Raina was not truthful (or if he was truthful to the best of his understanding) and there is to be a re-statement of past performance, it was so long ago that it barely reflects on current performance. Think that will matter to the market that moves the stock appreciably? EBIX will be hammered. It will require extraordinary patience, but there is real opportunity in that scenario.

In the meantime, let's assume the SEC says "no investigation" or "investigation closed"; the stock will soar...maybe 25% in a day. The question is, where is the starting point of that 25% burst? From yesterdays intraday low of $15.55, that would take it to 19.37; well below its 52 week high. Opportunity.

Let me reiterate that the chart does not currently conform to anything "normal." This is entirely due to the uncertainty of investigation or no investigation. That means we can't really guess where it will end up, but having discerned the "why," we can make better judgments going forward. On the other hand, every day that goes by will see the share price conform to typical charting. In other words, in the absence of any news, the share price will likely continue on its current trajectory. It's anybody's guess where it will stop.

prepared to buy a third in the 13s, a 3rd in the 8s and a third in the 5s...and more than a third if there is clarity and opportunity to buy in around the $18.65 where I got out...all good bets.
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