Rangers get a likely bargain in new Ian Kinsler deal

CORPUS CHRISTI - The Texas Rangers took another step towards a bright future yesterday when they agreed to terms on lengthy contract extension with second baseman Ian Kinsler. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram reported the deal as a five-year contract worth $75 million that begins next season. There is also a team option for a sixth season at $10 million ($12 million with vesting options with a $5 million buyout). The terms of this contract as well as the timing of it (there was no pressure on the Rangers to lock-up Kinsler now) are good signs that the Nolan Ryan (and humongous TV contract) era in Texas is going to very successful.

This is the most expensive deal for a second baseman in the history of baseball but once you get past the shock value of that statement and really analyze the figures this is an extremely friendly deal for the Rangers. Had the Rangers allowed Kinsler to hit the open market he most likely would have commanded a $100 million contract because he plays a prime position (very well, too) and has demonstrated a terrific reputation at the plate.

To be honest, Kinsler probably shouldn't have accepted this deal. Outside of whatever feelings he has about playing in Texas, which could have swayed him towards taking a hometown discount, the only other reason I can think of for Kinsler signing this extension is to ensure that an injury doesn't prevent him from getting his big payday. Kinsler has played over 100 games in everyone of his seasons in the majors but the nagging injuries he has had combined with having to play what is perhaps the most physically demanding position in baseball provides a bit of an injury concern.

That said, because the Rangers got him at such a relative discount, as long as he doesn't suffer any major injuries, he will most definitely give the Rangers their money's worth over the course of this deal.

The average cost of a win on the open market right now is around $5 million. A $75 million contract calls for Kinsler to produce 15 wins above replacement value (WAR) over the course of five seasons, which averages out to around three WAR a season. To put that in perspective, based on FanGraph's WAR scale, a three WAR player is a solid to good player. Well, Kinsler is much better than good. Last season Kinsler produced 7.7 WAR, which ranked sixth in baseball. The five players above him: Jacoby Ellsbury (third place in AL MVP voting), Matt Kemp (NL MVP runner-up), Jose Bautista (AL MVP runner-up), Dustin Pedroia (who will likely get more than Kinsler did from the Red Sox) and Ryan Braun (NL MVP*).

Kinsler didn't get as much attention as any of those guys in terms of both MVP consideration and overall praise. It's easy to lose sight of Kinsler's incredible contributions in a line-up like the Rangers but his 32-homer season at the leadoff spot and top of the line defense (only former Corpus Christi Hook Ben Zobrist saved more runs with his glove at second base last season) is something you won't find in many players. I'm not expecting Kinsler to have many more seasons at 7.7 WAR, but even four seasons at half that mark will give the Rangers bang for their buck. Considering Kinsler has already produced .3 WAR this season in five games, it's fair to say that Kinsler will likely have another MVP caliber (6 WAR) year and because he's just 29 years old, there shouldn't be an immediate decline when the 2013 season begins and his new contract kicks in.

It shouldn't even take the full five years for Kinsler to produce what the Rangers paid for. Once Kinsler gets in the third year of his contract it's logical to assume a dip in production (most notably defensively) as he begins to leave his prime age window but even then the only scenario in which Kinsler fails to live up to the deal is if a major injury costs him a season and takes away from his abilities. More likely, Kinsler will end up producing 20 WAR over his five-year deal, saving the Rangers about $25 million extra that Kinsler will have earned.

The only lingering question in my mind is whether or not Kinsler will still be a second baseman by the time his deal comes to an end. Second base is an incredibly tough position to play everyday and the Rangers may decide they'd be better off preserving his body by putting him in a corner outfield spot. Texas has one of the best farm systems in baseball but one thing they don't have in the minors is a clear cut major league player playing a corner outfield spot. Their best position player prospect is Jurickson Profar, a shortstop. Rather than attempting to trade Elvis Andrus to clear a path for him, the Rangers could opt to move Andrus or Profar to second and then put Kinsler in left field in a few years. Such a move would have a negative impact on Kinsler's value as left field is far from a premium position, so the deal would look a bit worse in the final years. Whether this happens or not remains to be seen. This purely speculation on something that may impact Kinsler's value in the future.

General Manager Jon Daniels did very well to lock up Kinsler before he even had a chance to hear offers on the open market, where he most definitely would have gotten more lucrative offers. The Rangers have come into a lot of surplus cash thanks to their mega TV deal with Fox Sports Southwest, which has allowed them to enter into Yankee-Red Sox territory in terms of spending. But even with a substantial piles of cash to throw around, the Rangers have maintained their place as one of the smartest organizations in baseball. Whereas Brian Cashman would prefer to break the bank to keep his stars around, Daniels and Ryan have managed to spend like a small market team when necessary. And that will undoubtedly pay off in the long run.

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