A science blog with Eric Berger

Hurricane Irene: A significant threat to the U.S. East Coast


It’s time for the U.S. East Coast, from Florida to the Carolinas to New England, to take Hurricane Irene seriously.

Irene has continued to organize this afternoon, and as the following NOAA image shows it was already a large system earlier today.

Irene, earlier today, north of Puerto Rico. (NOAA)

Forecasters have steadily upped their intensity estimates for Irene (now expected to be a major hurricane with 115-mph winds in five days) because it has followed a more northerly track than expected, keeping its center largely offshore.

The system is now not expected to be substantially affected by Hispaniola or Cuba.

This means Irene will have a largely unchecked path toward the east coast. Here’s a look at some of the latest track models runs, which continue to favor a landfall along the Carolinas or points northward.

Hurricane Irene 12z track models. (NCAR)

The National Hurricane Center’s official forecast is consistent with these models, bringing a major hurricane toward the Carolinas or Virginia by Saturday morning.

On the current track, assuming Irene’s center remains to the north of Hispaniola, the system could become the most intense hurricane to strike the U.S. East Coast since 1989′s Hurricane Hugo. That assumes it does indeed come ashore and not bend more strongly to the northeast, remaining over the Atlantic.

Named storms that have passed just to the north of Puerto Rico and gone on to strike the United States, including Hugo, have typically been very damaging.

A search using the iCat Damage Estimator finds seven named storms passing within 50 miles of Irene’s present position on the hurricane record, causing an average of $11.9 billion in damages (present-day dollars).

It’s far from clear where Irene will ultimately go, because there’s considerable error in four- and five-day tracks.

But what is clear at this point is that the system is a significant threat to the United States, and there’s no reason to be confident  it will be like Hurricane Earl last year, which menaced the coast but remained offshore.

In fact the greater likelihood is a serious hurricane striking the East Coast this weekend.

Categories: Hurricanes
Eric Berger

35 Responses

  1. Jrod says:

    Hurricane Hugo was in 89, not 99

    • Eric Berger says:

      But if Hugo happened in ’99 there’s a chance I can be 28 years old instead of 38. Thanks.

    • Brian says:

      I was living in Charlotte in 1989 when Hugo struck Charleston. Hugo traveled roughly 200 miles inland and hit Charlotte as a category 1 hurricane with 88 mph winds. It was a terrific calamity. In its aftermath, much of the city smelled like Christmas trees, since so many large trees were felled by the storm. And parts of the city did not regain electricity for more than a month.

  2. Suzanne says:

    Did you mean 1989 for Hurrican Hugo?

  3. James Scott says:

    On weather underground blog, there is some speculation (as there always is) that Irene has stalled and perhaps a more westward motion of the more recent models. Also heard Jim Cantore was in a car heading west. Should people in Katy begin evacuating?

    Sorry, I could have resisted but opted not to.

    Seriously, I was living in Katy back when Alicia hit and it was awesome yet horrible sight. My brother and I were walking along highway 6 out by Bear Creek park the evening of the approaching hurricane and transformers where sparking. It was a very dangerous situation and in retrospect we should have stayed in doors. We did get inside before trees started falling. So even though some of us still find at least a little humor in the Katy evacuation issue, even that far inland there are dangerous conditions from a large hurricane.

    Also, I would evacuate if I saw Jim Cantore in my neighborhood. Of course, I live in Kemah, now.

    • Eric Berger says:

      Cantore tweeted that he hasn’t been assigned a location yet, but he’s betting on Charleston to the Outer Banks.

    • StanleyS says:

      Is Cantore one of those people who deliberately try to position themselves at the point of most severe landfall?

    • Eric Berger says:

      Yes. And he’s somewhat of a legend in the sense that if he show’s up in your area, you’re going to get tagged badly.

    • Bill says:

      That’s true James…Katy was wiped off the map by a hurricane once. I remember Alicia too. That was the pits; no power for about 3 weeks and before the mass availability of generators.

    • roadchick says:

      TWC has a great commercial where they show Cantore trying to take a vacation, but everywhere he shows up, people run away screaming, thinking he’s there to work. LMAO!

  4. KaliGhoulish says:

    What’s up with that/ Irene is going to threatened the East /Coast..and they have already had flooding… Why can’t we get some rain? What did we do wrong?

    • Brian says:

      Actually, the area that Irene is currently expected to hit (Carolinas/Virginia) is experiencing a moderate drought right now. Lightning sparked a wildfire in early August in the Dismal Swamp in eastern VA/NC that is burning out of control. The fire is responsible for some awful air quality. Saturday, for example, was a Code Purple day for people living in Suffolk and the Hampton Roads areas of Virginia. So a hurricane like Irene would be very welcome to snuff out this fire.

  5. StanleyS says:

    It’s too bad that the “Damage Estimator” chart above doesn’t give the names or years for the storm. The only one that I can recognize just by the track shape is hurricane Jeanne in 2004, which did the funny “loop-de-loop” in the Atlantic before zeroing in on Florida from the east.

    ” … the system could become the most intense hurricane to strike the U.S. East Coast since 1989′s Hurricane Hugo.”

    Not to be a nitpicker (oh heck, you know that by saying that I actually intend the exact opposite), but doesn’t the south Florida strike by Andrew in 1992 count as an East Coast strike? And Andrew was somewhat more intense at landfall than Hugo.

    But, if Irene continues on its present most-likely track, it will almost certainly become South Carolina’s worst storm since Hugo.

    What’s interesting is that in just a little more than one day the forecast has changed from a tropical storm strike on the U.S. to a category 3 strike on the U.S. The reason for this dramatic change in expected outcome is: the big mountainous islands Hispaniola and Cuba. When the models were tracking the storm right along the lengthwise island spine, of course the storm could not strengthen much because the mountains would be constantly tearing it apart. But a shift of, say, 100 miles either north or south of the islands puts it over warm open water and suddenly changes the forecast to “monster storm.”

    The thing for the public to remember from the present situation is this: don’t look at the intensity forecast in and of itself. Always consider the intensity and track forecasts together. Depending on the exact land mass geometry along or near the forecast track, small track changes can mean huge intensity changes.

  6. olivia says:

    Hispaniola? I need more information for this one, please.

  7. Sandra says:

    Personally, I prefer a TS for Texas vs a cat 3 hurricane. :)

    • SuzieQ says:

      Good heavens, yes! Up until 3:00 today when they reinstated the burn ban, we were still burning Rita trees. Ike’s winds were not so impressive when compared to Rita’s, but it is horrifying to imagine that Rita’s were not so much compared to Katrina and especially Camile.

      Now, with the drought on the heels of Ike and Rita, our pine trees (the ones left) are infected with pine beetles. I never thought I would be researching logging companies because we never intended to ever use one. We aren’t the only ones with the little darlings. There seems to be an epidemic in extreme southeast Texas.

    • Zilch says:

      With all the dead trees from the drought a high wind could cause a lot of downed power lines.

  8. Julia Hatcher says:

    I’m vacationing up in Charlotte, N.C. What are the chances that it will come this far inland as HUGO did?

  9. KC says:

    I lived in far western SC when Hugo hit, most of my family still lives there. For us, it was mostly a wind event, very little rain (we were on the “clean” side of the storm). Charleston, one of my favorite cities in the world, was left in shambles. Irene looks like it is/will be a big one, hope it steers out to sea.

  10. JohnD says:

    If Irene is that far east, is is still likely to raise our temperature without bringing us any rain?

  11. Eric Berger says:

    Holy cow, the latest GFS model run has Irene striking the Outer Banks and then New York City.

    This is going to be big news tomorrow morning.

  12. SW-Mark says:

    It’s been upgraded to Category 2 now.. I bet it’s going to go to Cat 4 at some point.

  13. Jimmy Phillips says:

    Why do people have to continually make jokes and wisecracks about something as devastating as this could be? This is not a drill!!! It wiil take lives and/or alter lives for a period of time!!! I am sick and tired of the evacuation jokes!!!

  14. [...] then New YorkThe Weather SpaceIrene is becoming a major hurricane nowSarasota Herald-Tribune (blog)Hurricane Irene: A significant threat to the U.S. East CoastHouston Chronicle (blog)Middle East North Africa Financial Network -ABC NEWS 4 -Alaska [...]

  15. Hope says:

    I lived in Lancaster SC in 89 when Hugo hit. thats about 160 miles from the coast and 45 minutes from Charlotte nc. we had major damage there. My home had over 30,000 in damage and My brothers home was almost leveled( total loss). I do not want to live through another one. I hope to get my Husband to take our kids and go west but I will have to stay here because I am a Paramedic and Saturday is my regular shift….GOD knows I dont want to stay here!

  16. Mike Walters says:

    I’ve been in Hatteras, NC twice when Cantore and the weather channel were there in anticipation of a storm. Both times the storm fizzled out or headed out to sea, only brushing the coast. That guy is in the mainstream media for a reason, he’s a great actor! Hurricanes are harder to predict than snowfall amounts, which also vary greatly!

  17. Rachel says:

    I hope Jim Cantore makes a visit to North Carolina, maybe Wilmington It is true where ever he shows up destrution is close behind. Its been years since Wilmington has seen a hurricane wish everyone luck as Irene;s near:s close to the East Coast. Tornados, earthquake and now a hurricane,all in one week welcome to North Carolina.

  18. Stacey says:

    I live in Western Massachusetts. Inland. How big of a threat is this for inland residents? :/