Monday, August 10, 2009

2010 shaping up well for outsiders

Newsweek's Daniel Stone asks the question: are any politicians more popular than they were six months ago?

Not any that we've found, and I think that points to something interesting that could happen in next year's Senate races.

I think it could shape up not as a Democratic year or a Republican year, but as a 'the less association you have with Washington DC the better' year.

I would not be shocked to see a scenario where across the board folks who can run as DC outsiders win, regardless of their party. That would mean victories for Robin Carnahan over Roy Blunt in Missouri, Lee Fisher/Jennifer Brunner over Rob Portman in Ohio, and a Democrat to be named later over Richard Burr in North Carolina. At the same time it could mean Chris Dodd losing to Rob Simmons, Blanche Lincoln losing to whoever in Arkansas. and maybe even a surprise loss for Harry Reid in Nevada if the GOP could ever drum up a respectable candidate. Kelly Ayotte would hold for the Republicans over Paul Hodes in New Hampshire but Alexi Giannoulias would do the same for the Democrats against Mark Kirk in Illinois. Colorado, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania could all go either way with neither side really having an inherent edge on the outsider front.

It's too early to say what's going to happen but with voters fed up across the board it could end up just being bipartisan incumbent carnage.


Jeff said...

Do any election cycles like that come to mind for you or will this be unprecedented?

Anonymous said...

Can you give us a clue as to how it looks for Obama and his healthcare plan?

Bad is what I'm guessing.

Hagan is going to feel the heat don't you think? It's a little too early to be branded as a left-winger with five years to go before re-election.

Anonymous said...

I'm sure Hagan is shaking in her boots about that re-election campaign FIVE years from now.

Anonymous said...

Tom, what about primary challengers? Do you think the principle applies to intra-party congressional contests? Specifically rumors of McCrory vs Myrick or anybody vs McHenry on the Republican side?

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