Peru's Leader Is Struggling As Popularity Falls Sharply

Published: July 28, 2002

About a year ago, when the newly elected president, Alejandro Toledo, visited this hard-bitten southern town after it was stricken by an earthquake, the visit was like an answer to people's prayers.

There was the new president, concern etched on his face, touring their earthquake-damaged high school, inspecting collapsed walls and promising to rebuild.

But today the school is in the same badly damaged state, and there is only one promise that the town's mayor, Simón Balbuena, wants to hear from the president now.

''The promise Toledo should make is not to lie,'' he said bitterly. ''We are still waiting for help from the central government.''

That sense of resentment is shared by many Peruvians who once held high expectations for Mr. Toledo. His approval rating after a year in office, just over 18 percent, is one of the lowest among leaders in Latin America, a region filled with struggling governments.

Analysts and even those within the president's own party, Peru Possible, attribute the steep decline in Mr. Toledo's popularity to a first year in office characterized by unfulfilled pledges and indecision that has left people disappointed and his government in disarray.

''He was better prepared than most presidents, going to Stanford, working at the World Bank,'' said Augusto Álvarez, a political analyst in Lima. ''But his indecisions and his lack of direction have hurt.''

Members of Mr. Toledo's party are often openly rebellious. Protests against the government, many against economic reforms that Peruvians say have deepened their hardships, are a constant headache. Right now, the opposition is expected to swamp Mr. Toledo's allies in regional and municipal elections scheduled for November.

Hoping to regain some footing, Mr. Toledo shuffled his cabinet, replacing nearly half of his ministers, most notably an economy minister, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, whose adherence to fiscal austerity and pro-market reforms had become unpopular.

Mr. Toledo himself continues to be dogged by a paternity suit that has become a recurring tabloid drama. The case, which was an issue during his presidential campaign, was back on the front pages in June after a judge ordered the president to undergo a DNA test to determine if he is the father of a teenage girl.

The Supreme Court later delayed the order, saying it needed to study the case, but the damage was done.

Though Mr. Toledo's campaign was haunted by accusations of improper behavior, many voters saw him as a fresh start for a country that had endured corruption and repression under the 10-year reign of Alberto K. Fujimori, who left the country in 2000 for exile in Japan.

Mr. Toledo began his presidency with an approval rating approaching 60 percent. In his year in office, the country has shown clear improvements in many areas. Economic growth is the highest in South America, at 4 percent. The government is more accountable. It has investigated past human rights abuses and is working to improve crucial functions like tax collection.

But even officials close to the president acknowledge Mr. Toledo's tendency toward indecision and making promises that he cannot keep and his government cannot afford.

In his frequent tours of the Peruvian outback, Mr. Toledo has told villagers he will build roads and bridges, dams and universities, and has promised government officials he will increase their pay.

''He's very intelligent, a highly trained economist, but he's too eager to promise,'' said a top-ranking government official who has worked closely with Mr. Toledo. ''I think that has been the problem.''