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Dick Spotswood

I RECENTLY SPOKE to the Marin Association of Realtors about the realities of this year's presidential race and the Electoral College. From the audience came a pointed question: "Since you say that the Obama-Romney race will be determined by eight swing states, and that California is guaranteed to go for Barack Obama and Joe Biden, why does it matter if I vote?"

The only honest reply was, "You're right. As far as the presidency is concerned, your vote doesn't matter."

That's a painful thing for someone who has been involved in elections his entire adult life to say, but it's true. Not only it doesn't matter who the questioner votes for, it doesn't matter who any particular individual in 42 states and the District of Columbia votes for.

In all of those jurisdictions — among them, California, the most populous state — the outcome is easily predictable. Like it or not, on election night Obama will easily carry the Golden State.

Part of this is due to what's called the Great Reshuffle. People relocate and then remain in those states and regions whose politics and culture are most comfortable to them.

People in the North Bay overwhelming identify with the Democrats. The majority fully embrace progressive social norms. Newcomers know this and self-select this area as a new home, happy to live among people they mostly agree with.

The result is reenforcement of Marin and Sonoma's leftward orientation.

The same thing is happening is the Deep South.

Folks who tend to be politically conservative with traditional social values find the politics and communities in that part of the country conducive to their outlook and beliefs. The South's innate conservative trend is not only reinforced, it's strengthened.

My brother-in-law lives in Savannah, Ga. Given that state's conservative orientation, he's considered a liberal Democrat. Does his vote for president matter? Not in the slightest. Georgia's popular and electoral votes will assuredly go to the Romney-Ryan ticket no matter what happens between now and Nov. 6.

Of course, there is a logical reason to cast ballots even in the 42 states, including California, where the race for the presidency is effectively over and done.

In Marin and Sonoma, we have a contest for a new member of Congress, two Democrats running against each other for the state Assembly and a smattering of local ballot issues. Casting what is in effect a symbolic vote for president happily results in voters participating in a range of important down ballot races and measures.

In Sausalito, voters face highly contested City Council races where every vote very much does matter.

What's amazing is that so many Marinites still cast ballots despite this reality. In the 2008 Obama-McCain contest, an astounding 90.8 percent of Marin's registered voters went to the polls.

Unfortunately, the race for the presidency has become a spectator sport for Californians. That's certainty a result the Founders would never have envisioned.

At best, the Electoral College was a compromise necessary to make the deal that procured the end of the Articles of Confederation and resulted in adoption of the Constitution. What we have today wasn't entirely unexpected. The Founders expected that elements of sectionalism would have an impact, but never to the unfortunate extent we now witness.

As the fascinating website "270 To Win" proclaims, "This isn't a popularity contest." Al Gore can testify to that fact.

Will the system ever change? Unlikely, though I suspect Mr. Gore might develop some GOP allies in favor of changing the electoral scheme if Mitt Romney wins the popular vote but President Obama carries the Electoral College.
