Bush surges ahead in swing states

By Julian Borger

September 15, 2004

Supporters reach out to President Bush at a campaign rally in Battle Creek, Michigan.

US presidential contender John Kerry has fallen behind in the three biggest swing states - Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio - which pollsters from both parties believe will be the key to the US presidential election.

Polling figures suggest that President George Bush's surge in support after the Republican convention has settled into a significant lead, confronting Senator Kerry with difficult tactical choices as he battles to regain the initiative.

A poll by Time magazine showed the President on 52 per cent, with the Democratic challenger on 41 per cent. This is as wide a lead as Mr Bush enjoyed in the immediate aftermath of the New York convention. Newsweek magazine, however, found the Bush margin had diminished to six percentage points in the past week.

As the trend moved against him, Senator Kerry launched a broadside at Mr Bush for letting a ban on assault weapons expire. Under a 10-year prohibition that expired on Monday, certain powerful military-style assault weapons, including Uzi submachine-guns and AK47s, were outlawed, as were high-capacity ammunition magazines holding more than 10 rounds.

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"For the first time in 10 years," Senator Kerry said, "when a killer walks into a gun shop, when a terrorist goes to a gun show somewhere in America, when they want to purchase an AK47 or some other military assault weapon, they're going to hear one word: 'Sure'." But Senator Kerry, who said he was a lifelong hunter and has portrayed himself as an avid outdoorsman to appeal to more conservative voters, pledged to uphold the constitution's second amendment, which allows Americans to bear arms.

The common theme in the latest polls is that Mr Bush's advantage has outlasted the hoopla of the Republican rally. The conventional wisdom among pollsters in both camps has been that whoever wins two states out of Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio will win the election. Senator Kerry is behind in all three: Ohio by 8 percentage points, Florida by 4 points, and Pennsylvania by 1 point.

"It's clear this is more than a 'bounce'," said Andrew Kohut, the head of the Pew Research Centre, an independent polling organisation in Washington.

"Kerry has clearly underperformed. He's lost the first round, but the question becomes, how stable is the Bush lead - and we don't know that yet. There are still a lot of variables, like what happens in Iraq and the candidates' performance in the debates, so there are still opportunities for Kerry."

However, over the past two weeks, there has been a shift in voter perceptions of both candidates. More than half of the US electorate now has a favourable opinion of Mr Bush, according to the Newsweek survey.

Senator Kerry's favourable ratings, at 48 per cent, have yet to recover from the battering he suffered from Republican speakers at the convention.

The polling results have also shown that the Republican convention rearranged the election agenda, at least for now. Terrorism has become the top issue for voters, displacing concerns about the economy and health care.

For Democrats, the persistently hopeful sign to emerge from all the polling data is that the US remains a disgruntled country. In the Newsweek survey, 53 per cent of voters said they were dissatisfied with "the way things are going" in the US. Only 39 per cent said they were satisfied.

Faced with that widespread discontent, both candidates are marketing themselves as agents of change, which is a normal strategy for a challenger but a harder task for an incumbent with four years in office behind him.

- Reuters, Guardian