

How Bets Among Employees Can Guide a Company’-s Future –- Internal prediction markets enable colleagues to wager on the fate of crucial projects and the success of products in the pipeline. –- Technology Review

If prediction markets are such a powerful tool, then why arent we able to use them to solve [INSERT YOUR FAVORITE WORLD PROBLEM HERE]?

Justin Wolfers is asked the question, but I would have a different answer than his.

The reason prediction markets are not widely used in business is that their many boosters (Robin Hanson, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, etc.) have exaggerated their usefulness. Just because they are objective in their wisdom does not mean that they are very useful.

Objectivity is over-rated. This is a painful lesson for the handful of young startups who swallowed the prediction market myth. Next step: the dead pool.

John Stossel – Gambling in America – [VIDEO]

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Part 4 is about prediction markets and InTrade.

Part 4 is about InTrade’-s prediction markets:

Robin Hanson bores his students with Futarchy. -> He is asked to apply his concept to Himself.

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A commenter on his blog (Bill):

Why not experiment at GMU?


You can even start on a smaller scale, a class.

Report back on your experiment.