The Opponents Of Nuclear Weapons Tests Use A Little Judo

August 09, 1988|By Gwynne Dyer.

There`s a man named Jerry Johnson who used to supervise nuclear weapons tests in the United States. He`s probably seen more nuclear weapons explode than anyone else in the world, and a couple of years ago he told me a story.

Under the Kennedy administration Johnson ran nuclear weapons programs, and one day in 1962 the founder of the Strategic Air Command, Gen. Curtis LeMay, came into Johnson`s office looking for a new bomb. Johnson seized the opportunity to remonstrate with LeMay about the policy of loading B-52s with three, four or even five nuclear weapons.

It was a terrible waste of bombs, Johnson told LeMay. The bomber crews had never seen one of those things explode, and their imaginations simply could not encompass it. But after they dropped their first bomb, they would know-and they would be so horrified that they might jettison the rest.

But there are now no Americans under the age of 45 who have seen a nuclear weapon explode-and no Russians or British either. In August, 1963, the nuclear powers of the time signed the Partial Test Ban Treaty, banning all nuclear explosions in the atmosphere, in space and even underwater.

It was, however, only a ``partial`` test ban. The great powers were responding to public alarm about their tests fouling the atmosphere, so they just moved them underground. Nuclear tests have never subsequently generated the same public anguish, although there have been over 1,000 underground nuclear explosions since the treaty was signed.

Yet there is still cause for alarm, because underground testing is how all the new weapons are developed and the nuclear arms race is sustained.

So four years ago, a man named Aaron Tovish had an idea. Governments are more sensitive to arguments about the evils of underground tests than the average citizen. Why not try to mobilize a majority of governments against underground testing?

Tovish is executive director of Parliamentarians Global Action, a loose association of congressmen, members of parliament, deputies and other elected legislators from several dozen democratic countries. So he had access to governments by the back door, so to speak; what he needed was a strategy.

What if some country submitted an amendment to change the treaty so that it banned underground tests? If enough governments could be rounded up to support it, the great powers were treaty-bound to call a conference to consider it.

The treaty has been signed by 113 non-nuclear countries; only 39 must support the amendment, and the conference must be held. The first six nations activated the amendment procedure in Geneva Aug. 5. Forty are expected to have backed them up by September-enough to make a conference obligatory.

Clearly a large majority of countries favor a comprehensive ban on all nuclear testing. But each of the ``Original Members``-the nuclear powers-has a veto. And the Reagan administration opposes a comprehensive ban tooth and nail: If you can`t go on testing warheads, you can`t develop the technology for the Star Wars boondoggle.

Timing is everything in politics, however, and the organizers of this initiative were not just picking a handy anniversary when they chose to launch it in August, 1988. It means that the conference will probably be convened in early 1989, just after the new administration takes office in Washington. It would be an ideal international venue for President Dukakis (or even President Bush) to show that things are going to be different now.

It could work-and the most striking thing is that the initiative has come not from the great powers, but from a small organization and minor powers. It`s a kind of judo: There is a lot more cunning than brawn to politics.