Friday, July 23, 2010

Bonnie is a GONER!

Tropical Storm Bonnie made landfall in Cutler Bay, FL, which was basically right in the middle of my Homestead to Miami Beach landfall forecast... Honestly, Bonnie was a dud! The highest wind gust I saw was 56 mph, 8 miles SSE of Key Biscayne at 10m elevation... There was just too much wind shear, as the upper level low never got far enough away from Bonnie to intensify... It barely was able to hold on to tropical storm status as it made landfall around 11am EDT... This wasn't much of a surprise though, as I thought it "could" maybe make it up to 50 mph tops!

Bonnie is now a tropical depression, but the NHC is forecasting it to regain tropical storm strength before landfall in Eastern Louisiana... I don't have a problem with the track, but I personally highly doubt Bonnie ever gets back to tropical storm strength! It's getting sheared to pieces by the same upper low... Plus, Bonnie traveling over the mainland of Florida didn't help matters either! Bonnie is a GONER in my eyes, as it will continue to be sheared to pieces! 50 knots of shear + dry air is NOT conducive for strengthening! I suspect the NHC will lower their intensity forecast soon! Tomorrow, I'll have my Tropical Storm Bonnie grades out! Stay tuned for that...


  1. I'm really not trying to flatter you, no reason to, but your forecast amaze me. I have been keeping up with them for over a year now, and you are really good.

  2. Thank you so much! I really appreciate the support! I still have a LONG WAY to go! I LOVE forecasting, and I just try to learn something new everyday!