Analysis: Dynamics at play during state primary election

An election day guide to understanding primary election returns in governor’s race

Published  5:08 PM EDT Sep 11, 2012
Political Scoop

The Republican and Democratic primaries for governor have been surprisingly understated, given that it is the most wide-open race for the state’s corner office in 16 years.

In 1996, Ovide Lamontagne, R-Manchester, was able to clinch the Republican nomination for governor against a sitting congressman. However, in the general election he lost the open seat to democrat Jeanne Shaheen.

Now, Lamontagne is back and taking a shot at another Republican nomination. He faces an upstart in former state representative and conservative activist Kevin Smith, R-Litchfield, who is playing the role of the “new Ovide,” trying to knock off the party’s established frontrunner like in 1996.

For Democrats, the broader question is, once again, on establishing an income tax.

It’s a debate that bubbles up every 10 years. In 1992, Democrats nominated a person for governor who refused to take "the pledge" against a statewide income or sales tax. In 2002, Democrats did it again.

Former State Sen. Jackie Cilley, D-Barrington, hopes that history repeats itself in 2012.

Cilley said those who take the decades old pledge, “are zombies.”

Cilley’s opponent, Maggie Hassan, D-Exeter, said she isn’t a zombie, though she is taking the pledge.

A third candidate, Bill Kennedy, D-Danbury, has been running basically a small-scale campaign aimed at getting media coverage. However, the last financial report showed that only nine people, including Kennedy, donated to his campaign.

While the Republican race is expected to go to Lamontagne, the Democratic Primary race is simply too close to call. Hassan, with her money and organization, should win, but Cilley appeared to overtake Hassan last week. For her part, Hassan is finishing with a strong "get out the vote" effort that Cilley simply doesn’t have.

Here are some of the dynamics to watch for as the election returns Tuesday night.

1. Will Kennedy be a spoiler?

A potential surprise tonight could be Kennedy. He has a campaign office and basically no organization whatsoever, but he had a better than expected performance during the WMUR/Union Leader televised debate last week -- the most important night of the campaign. Kennedy is interesting in this race for three reasons: he is the only man in the primary; he is the only one calling for an income tax; and he is only one running who is against expanded gambling. OK, I’ll throw in the obvious fourth reason: his last name is Kennedy, and he is running in a Democratic primary where voters don’t know the candidates.

Even Kennedy said he doesn’t expect to win, but if he somehow gets over four percentage points, he may well have more votes than the margin of victory. It is unclear if Kennedy would take more votes from Hassan or Cilley, though the conventional wisdom is that he would take more from Cilley, given that he is against the tax pledge also.

2. White, working class men in the Democratic primary

One absolutely fascinating group to watch in the hotly contested Democratic primary is white, working class men. In particular, think about men who are middle aged, who tend to be political moderates, and who are blue collar and live in former mill cities like Rochester, Somersworth, Manchester, Nashua, Berlin or Franklin.

You could make a case for this group casting votes for all three candidates. In Hassan they could like a style of more moderate politics. In Cilley they can like her blue-collar background. In Kennedy they can relate to a guy just like them. This is also a group that has been hit the hardest in the recent recession, and it might be that they either get really involved in politics or say, "to heck with all of it," and not vote at all. In this election most people aren’t voting.

3. The periphery versus the interior of the state

Take a look at the state of New Hampshire. If you were to put your finger on the border and trace the outline of the state you will basically get a pretty good handle on the areas that Jackie Cilley must do very well in, excluding the southern stretch from Hampton to Hollis. Meanwhile, Hassan must absolutely own the interior areas of Rockingham and Hillsborough Counties up through the Merrimack Valley. There are a ton of votes in this area for Hassan to grab, and if she is struggling in Derry or Salem or Bow, then she will lose.

On the flipside, Cilley must do well in those areas along border like the Seacoast, Strafford, Coos, Grafton and Cheshire Counties. If she doesn’t do that, she will likely not win.

4. Can Lamontagne win the small towns?

Two years ago, Lamontagne came close to beating Kelly Ayotte in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate. While the campaigns could focus on this city or that one, the reality is that Ayotte won the election in the hundreds of little small towns around the state. Lamontange has dominated this Republican Party from the beginning, but it will be interesting to see if he can turn these small towns now that he is the party’s frontrunner. If not, he may have a lot of problems in the general election.

5. Hassan’s internal get out the vote operation vs Cilley’s external factors

Anyone paying attention to this race will know that Hassan has spent the most money and has the superior organization. Hassan’s campaign has some of the brightest names formally helping her on the campaign and informally helping her as advisers and her advocates.

Hassan's people know how to get out the vote and have a strong finish. Yet the wind is blowing their face. The odd thing is that Cilley’s surge has actually very little to do with Cilley. Yes, her campaign did execute a clever ad and Cilley even personally loaned money to keep that ad on the air. But in a low turnout election, a get-out-the-vote organization is everything.

Here, Cilley hasn’t to rely on her allies. Luckily, she is backed by the large State Employees Association and the state firefighters' union. Those groups have statewide large organizations that can man poll areas and drive people where they need to go.

The biggest factor for Cilley, though, has nothing to do with any of the candidates. It is the low turnout nature of the primary itself. Cilley’s voters are the kind that always vote.

Hassan wants a larger turnout. 

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