Oldham byelection may give all three main parties a kick

With Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dems all nervous, keep an eye on Nick The Brick and the Bus Pass Elvis party
Ed Miliband speaking in Oldham today, with Debbie Abrahams, Labour's candidate
Ed Miliband speaking in Oldham today, with Debbie Abrahams, Labour's candidate for the Oldham East and Saddleworth. Photograph: Martin Rickett/PA

Things are getting edgy in Oldham. And not just because Nick "The Flying Brick" Delves and the Bus Pass Elvis party are making their presence felt. There's a reason all three party leaders have started the new year nervously scouring the canvas returns from Crompton, Alexandra and St James & Waterhead.

The problem is the voters are misbehaving. According to the byelection script the Conservatives were meant to stand diplomatically aside while Labour and the Lib Dems settled their differences once and for all. Debbie Abrahams versus Elwyn Watkins in a good, clean, fight; a clear line drawn under all that Phil Woolas unpleasantness.

Neat. Too neat.

"People are getting a little nervous," confessed one Labour insider. "We're not getting overexcited, but it's going quite well," said a Tory activist. "Don't ask," said a Lib Dem.

All byelections are complex and unique events. Traditionally, they are used by the electorate as a protest or a wake-up call. The problem in Oldham East & Saddleworth is that everyone appears to be protesting against, or trying to wake up, everyone else.

There are people still infuriated by Labour's general election campaign. There are people infuriated the result was overturned by the judiciary. There are people who want to protest against the Lib Dems' student betrayal; against the savagery of Tory cuts; against Labour's treatment of Woolas. Oldham East has become a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.

This much we do know. The Lib Dem vote is collapsing; "imploding", according to one Labour campaigner.

What no one knows is which way disillusioned Lib Dem supporters are turning. The initial perception was that fury at Nick Clegg's tuition fee U-turn, and Vince Cable's Viennese Waltz, would open the door for Labour. Now some people are speculating about a wipeout so comprehensive it could even pave the way for the Conservatives.

Labour insiders point to a number of warning signs. The Tory candidate, Kashif Ali, performed well in the general election, and is said to be picking up strong support among the constituency's Asian voters. There are also doubts about the extent to which Ed Miliband's brand of "Islington Liberalism" will prove attractive to northern Lib Dems. "What people like Ed don't understand is that the Lib Dems aren't a homogenous block," said one local activist. "Northern Lib Dems are hard as nails on issues like crime, immigration and welfare reform." Some also fear a "plague on both your houses" mind-set after the fallout from the court case.

Labour's growing trepidation is balanced by the Tories' optimistic pragmatism. "We're doing well, and we might come second, but we're not going to win it," said one Central Office source.

Such views are part realism, part diplomacy. David Cameron has bent over backwards to give his coalition partners a fair run at a seat they feel was stolen from them in May, although there have recently been signs that after weeks of soft peddling the Tory campaign is starting to step up the pace. Just before Christmas, Conservative cabinet ministers received instructions that each would be required to make a visit to the constituency, while over the weekend it emerged that a new wave of Tory activists was being deployed for the final 10 days of the campaign.

The Lib Dems, meanwhile, have become a case study in being wary of what you wish for. Having campaigned across every court in the land for a re-run of May's election, a close second would now be beyond their wildest private dreams. Even their neat trick of breaking with parliamentary convention and moving the byelection writ themselves, thereby ensuring the local student population was absent for the bulk of the campaign, seems destined for failure.

The clever money still points to a Labour victory, with the Tories possibly beating the Lib Dems into third place. But that opens the door to another intriguing scenario; one in which Oldham and Saddleworth becomes the first byelection in history in which every party leader loses.

If the Lib Dem vote does flat-line, it will raise further questions over Clegg's tattered leadership. A good performance for the Tories, particularly if they were to run Labour a close second, would, paradoxically, herald a furious response from Tory backbenchers angered that the niceties of coalition politics had robbed them of a red-blooded byelection triumph. Similarly, anything other than a comfortable victory for Miliband, at a time when the streets are burning, VAT is soaring and the cuts are biting, would lead to further muttering about his own leadership, and his courtship of the Lib Dems in particular.

My advice is keep an eye on Nick The Brick and Elvis. Come next Friday they may be the only candidates in Oldham with something to celebrate.