Year 2000 Computer Problems May Get an Alibi

Published: December 14, 1999

In the first few days of next year, hundreds of thousands of Americans are likely to discover they cannot get cash from a teller machine. Others will suddenly lose power or be greeted with silence when they pick up their telephones.

There will be neighborhood pharmacies asking customers to pay in full for medicines because insurers' computers do not recognize their names. And thousands of business and home computers are likely to be penetrated by vandals or thieves.

Year 2000 computer problems? Though many who encounter such technology potholes will assume so, they may be wrong.

''If we watched the world tomorrow as closely as we will watch Jan. 1, we'd see a whole set of things not working,'' said John A. Koskinen, chairman of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion.

To gain perspective on potential Year 2000 problems -- and perhaps head off sensationalized coverage and panic -- Mr. Koskinen and industry representatives have tried to pin down just how messy normal life can be. Yesterday, the council made its first attempt to publicize failure rates for activities in a wide range of industries and government services.

The report cited everything from irritations (up to 10 percent of the 907 million automated teller transactions each year fail on their first attempt, usually because of customer errors) to safety concerns (telephone network glitches disrupt 911 service somewhere about once a week). It also touched on transportation accidents and energy reliability: for example, nearly every year since 1994, tens of thousands of Americans or Canadians have lost power in late December or early January.

Some are skeptical such data will alter anyone's suspicions or behavior when problems arise. ''There will be very little they can say to counteract the belief that it's a Y2K problem,'' said Lisa Aspinwall, a University of Maryland professor studying public perceptions about Year 2000 technology concerns.

But Mr. Koskinen expects the baselines to provide major benefits even if they have little effect on perceptions: they may help identify serious Y2K problems more quickly.

For instance, utility grids may experience problems that are handled well enough by backup systems to keep the power on. The benchmarks could point to a high incidence of malfunctions that drastically increases the risks of blackouts several weeks down the road, particularly in developing countries.

''We don't want to focus on the first things that go wrong if it looks like things that could develop later are more important,'' Mr. Koskinen said.

The potential value of failure data was reinforced yesterday when the Y2K International Cooperation Center, an information clearinghouse set up by the United Nations, issued a global preparedness overview.

It concluded that though computer risks remained relatively high in some countries in lagging sectors like health care, ''most critical infrastructures will function about as well as they normally do in the first days of the new year.'' But the report suggested that a closer look might reveal accumulating errors in some power systems or other crucial areas that could lead to deteriorating service or worse if left unaddressed.

Mr. Koskinen said the government would continue gathering failure data but some industry experts question how many useful baselines can be established. For instance, power reliability during the winter is overwhelmingly a function of weather.

''We might have 20 customers out on a typical quiet evening with a somewhat higher level on New Year's Eve because you have more cars crashing into poles,'' said Steven Kley, director of distribution assets for Public Service Electric and Gas in New Jersey.