Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning has thrown for 31 touchdowns and 4,016 yards and his 103.5 passer rating would be his third-highest in 15 seasons. Reuters

Here's the book on Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning this season: The guy has no zip on the ball. After multiple neck surgeries caused him to miss all of last season, he's heroically making do with his smarts and grit rather than his rusty arm. His team's 11-3 record is a minor miracle.


"I wouldn't say that I'm all the way back, no," he said.

Objectively, Manning is having a pretty incredible season. He's thrown for 31 touchdowns and 4,016 yards—which is high even by his lofty standards. That he's doing it with an entirely new team is pretty remarkable, too. If it holds up, his 103.5 passer rating would be his third-highest in 15 seasons.

Perhaps Manning is just being modest. He does have a habit of understating his own role. But an analysis of a month's worth of game tapes and statistics suggests Manning may have an ulterior motive in saying he's not 100% fit. In the NFL, when a defense believes it's dealing with a weakened quarterback, there's usually one Pavlovian response: They send as many blitzes as they can in an attempt to knock the tuna fish out of him.

If the pressure is getting to Manning this year, he's doing a nice job of faking it. Getty Images

And so far, that's exactly what's happening: Defenses are blitzing Manning 26% more often that they did in the season before his surgeries. This season, teams are sending five or more defenders after him on 31.6% of all occasions when he drops back to pass. That makes poor gimpy Peyton the No. 8 most-blitzed quarterback in the league. In 2010, he was third to last.

But here's the thing about Manning: one of the reasons he's an elite quarterback is that he's always found ways to punish teams that blitz him. Even with a tribe of giants coming at him, he's been able to think—and work—quickly enough to find the receivers who have been left uncovered in the onslaught.

If the pressure is getting to Manning this year, he's doing a nice job of faking it. His quarterback rating when being blitzed is an impressive 99.9, 12% higher than his mark in 2010 and the sixth best among qualifying NFL quarterbacks this season.

It's fair to say that much of Manning's success is just the residue of his previously well-honed instincts. But he also seems to be enjoying the fact that defensive coordinators around the league continue to buy his sob story.

"The neck surgeries are one thing," said Raiders star lineman Richard Seymour, "but that doesn't stop him knowing what to do." When it comes to picking up blitzes, Seymour said, "he's still the best in the league."

On one third-and-10 early in the first quarter against Baltimore, the Ravens (who like blitzing like reindeer like carrots) sent a gang of players to the line, suggesting a blitz was coming. Manning, who is known for barking out orders at the line, blurted out some directions about which players to block. Then, after the snap, he hung back in the pocket rather bravely while five Ravens tried to claw their way to him—and a sixth hovered nearby looking for an opening. With a famously efficient throwing motion that shaves fractions of seconds from that of a typical quarterback, Manning threw a high dart to wide receiver Brandon Stokely for a 14-yard reception and a first down. The drive ultimately produced a field goal.

As the day wore on, the Ravens decided to test Manning more. With 12:07 left in the second quarter on a second down, they sent five rushers at Manning, who promptly threw a quick 15-yard touchdown.

These weren't garden-variety blitzes, either. On the day, seven Ravens rushed the quarterback that weren't playing one of the normal rushing positions—all to no avail. "You can blitz him all you want," said Broncos defensive lineman Justin Bannan, who has played against Manning and said that his famous "quick release" is still there. "Teams don't care if it 'seems on the surface' that he's fragile, he's definitely not fragile. He's put that theory to rest, he's taken hard hits."

The numbers clearly show that Manning is nearly the same or better in most categories. His average completion travels 6.91 yards in the air, up from 6.26 in 2010. His average pass travels 8.44 yards, down a hair from the 8.7 he posted in his last season. While he's attempted passes that travel more than 20 yards at a slightly lower rate (10.1% of his attempts through Week 14 this year compared to 11.3% in 2010), he has had much more success when he goes deep.

Manning has averaged 14.7 yards per attempt on these long passes, compared with 9.8 in 2010, and he's completing 44.9% of them compared with 26% in 2010. The idea that he'd be a "dink-and-dunk" passer has been officially put to rest, since 68.5% of his passes through 14 games were thrown within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, close to his career average.

As long as Manning keeps up the rhetoric (maybe he could add a sling and crutches to the act?) teams will continue to ramp up the blitzing. But some teams are wising up. Running back Ronnie Hillman said that while defenses are consistently confounded, some teams treat him like the old Manning out of pure fear. "If you see what he's done," Hillman said. "He'd scare you, too."

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