France: Socialist sunrise

In a Europe that has turned en bloc to the right, France is living up to its role as a land apart

As things stand, and the elections are a year away, a socialist is set to become the next president of France. Barring a dramatic comeback by Nicolas Sarkozy, and barring another midair explosion of the sort that knocked Dominique Strauss-Kahn out of the skies, a France disillusioned with the quixotic and divisive leadership of the incumbent will turn to the centre-left for a calmer head and a safer pair of hands. If anything, the disaster which befell Lionel Jospin, the socialist candidate in 2002 who was knocked out in the first round by the far-right Jean-Marie Le Pen, is more likely to recur on the right, as Mr Sarkozy suffers at the hands of Le Pen's cleverly rebranded daughter Marine. The big if in all this is whether the left can unite around a candidate with the ability to broadcast over the full bandwidth of politics.

The two frontrunners for the socialist nomination are the former party leader François Hollande – now thinner, less pally with journalists and more presidential – and his successor Martine Aubry, who launched her bid to become France's first woman president yesterday. There are differences between the two. Mr Hollande is more likely to attract votes from the centre-right. Indeed, the 78-year-old former president Jacques Chirac sent a Taser electroshock through the nervous system of the Élysée Palace by saying he would vote for Mr Hollande next year. Mr Hollande brushed it off as a joke. Mr Sarkozy did not. The incident showed how vulnerable he is from both flanks, the far and centre-right.

Ms Aubry, on the other hand, has greater appeal to the left as a whole. In 2008 she inherited the leadership of a party that was profoundly divided. She has since managed to knit together a party of polar opposites, the leftwing partisans of Laurent Fabius and those of Mr Strauss-Kahn. So that today she counts among her supporters not only key figures of the left but Strauss-Kahnians like Jean-Christophe Cambadélis. She and Mr Hollande also differ on France's nuclear future. Ms Aubry has followed Germany's lead on this issue and is more likely to appeal to the greens.

Both candidates are vulnerable to attack. A former labour minister best known for creating the 35-hour week, Ms Aubry has her work cut out convincing those who run small businesses that France's future lies in more control, not less of it. Nothing will stop Ségolène Royal, Hollande's former wife, from entertaining the illusion that she can succeed in 2012 where she failed in 2007, and she may split the centre-left still further. In a Europe that has turned en bloc to the right, France is living up to its role as a land apart. The presidential contest of 2012 will not disappoint.