Sunday, April 02, 2006

US Fertilty and Growth, A Research Agenda

by Edward Hugh






S.M. Stirling said...

The important thing to note with the US is not that it's "maintaining" replacement-level fertility, but that it has a long-term _increase_ in its fertility level.

European and American fertility rates tracked each other fairly closely up until the late 1970's or early 1980's, though American rates were usually a bit higher.

However, since then the American population (apart from the minority groups) has shown consistent, if slow, increases in TFR.

Janet Baker said...

I wonder where SM Stirling is getting those figures on fertility level. The US Census bureau site says that the US Growth Rate is projected to slow very significantly between 2030 and 2050. The population increase in this comment must refer to total number of population, which is expected to grow. Could someone comment on first, the definition of fertility level constrasted to growth level? If they are the same, would Stirling care to comment on the discrepancy between his figures here, and the US census bureau?