The last time that the Preakness was run without the Kentucky Derby winner was 1996, when Grindstone was retired because of knee issues. The last time none of the top four Derby finishers went to the middle jewel of racing's Triple Crown season was 1951, because none of them were nominated in time.

All that changes on Saturday.

Derby winner Country House is sick and not at the Preakness. Maximum Security, the horse that crossed the line first and was then disqualified, isn't at the Preakness. Derby runner-up Code of Honor is being pointed to the Dwyer Stakes in July. Derby third-place finisher Tacitus is likely to return in three weeks at the Belmont.

That's all good and bad news for the Preakness.

The bad news: There's no Triple Crown winner this year, and intrigue takes an obvious hit without the Derby principals in the field.


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Some of the newcomers, they just seem out of place.


Market King needed five tries to break his maiden and hasn't won since, though attention should be paid whenever the legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas has a horse in the Preakness. Signalman is decent, but wouldn't seem Preakness-worthy.


If it sounds like there's no clear-cut favorite, that's because there isn't.

There just seems to be a lot of horses with similar running styles and similar abilities. It's very even. There's 13 horses, not 20 like in the Derby, so there's less chance for chaos as well. And although some say the inside post isn't favorable at Pimlico, the run to the first turn is so long that the rail wouldn't seem to be much of a deterrent. For that matter, being on the outside isn't such a bad thing either.

So that means the race probably comes down to which jockey executes the best trip.

And that would point us to Mike Smith.

Big Money Mike, as he's now called, takes his turn Saturday aboard Improbable — who'll have his fourth jockey in as many starts. Smith and seven-time Preakness winning trainer Bob Baffert are a lethal combination. Improbable will be bet down big-time, probably going off no better than 3-1, maybe even lower. There won't be any value there.

He's the safe play.

But is Improbable the best closer? Probably not. In this race, where plenty of horses are going to expend probably more energy than they should to get near the front early on, the right play is to go with the best finishing kick.

Bourbon War is that horse.

He wins over Improbable, Alwaysmining and Market King.