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Cost and Impact of Interventions on Future Projections of Diarrhea Burden

The goal of this project is to provide clear and comparable evidence on the benefit of diarrhea prevention and treatment measures in different countries and different contexts over time. IHME will leverage its knowledge of the global burden of diarrhea, related risk factors, and long-term health and health-related outcomes to rigorously quantify the impact of diarrhea interventions on future health outcomes around the world.

The project will undertake five linked but separate objectives:

1. Undertake a comprehensive assessment of available information on the cost, efficacy, and cost effectiveness of existing interventions

2. Review available information on in-development interventions to characterize their probability of scientific and regulatory success, the probability distribution of time to success, expected efficacy, and the likely production costs of new products

3. Develop baseline forecasts of general and pathogen-specific diarrhea burden 25 years into the future that reflect key drivers and their interrelationships

4. Generate a range of alternative future scenarios of burden and cost as a function of faster scale-up of existing interventions, roll-out of new interventions, and alternative trajectories of key diarrhea drivers

5. Create a data visualization that allows users to easily see