Risk and Decision-Making in Military Incident and Accident

Risk and Decision-Making in Military Incident
and Accident Reporting Systems
C.W. Johnson
Department of Computing Science, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 9QQ, Scotland.
[email protected]
Keywords: Human error, incident analysis, causation, root cause analysis.
Incident and accident reporting systems can be used to identify patterns of operator behavior in the
causes and mitigation of adverse events. Most attention in this area has, however, focused on the
civilian process, healthcare and transportation industries. In contrast, this paper focuses on human
factors issues in military incident reporting. We identify important differences both in the incidents
that are reported and in attitudes towards human ‘error’. For instance, military systems contain far
more training related mishaps than might be expected in civilian systems. These incidents often stem
from tensions between the need to prepare staff for operational situations and the need to control the
hazards that form a necessary part of complex, military training scenarios. Further differences stem
from the need for military personnel to make complex risk assessments in uncertain environments in
strictly limited time periods. For example, leaders may have to choose between a short exposure to a
relatively high-risk situation and prolonged exposure to a lesser risk. One consequence of this is
that military reporting systems often focus more on the risk-decision making process than they do on
the immediate actions that lead to an adverse event. It is also possible to identify a strong form of
hindsight bias in which individuals may be blamed irrespective of the risk exposure that they accept.
1. Introduction
Incident reporting systems provide an important means of learning from failure in many safety-critical
applications. For instance, British Airways operate their confidential BASIS reporting system
(http://www.basishelp.com). The NASA Safety Reporting System gathers mishap information from
across their diverse operations (http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/codeq/narsindx.htm). In the medical
domain, the Australian Patient Safety Foundation (http://www.apsf.net.au), the US National Patient
Safety Foundation (http://www.npsf.org) and the UK National Patient Safety Agency
(http://www.npsa.org.uk) all either operate or are establishing national incident reporting systems.
These systems share many a number of common problems. For example, it can be difficult to elicit
information about ‘near miss’ events when individuals are concerned that this might initiate
disciplinary action. Similarly, once mishaps have been reported, there are few guarantees that
different investigators will identify similar causal factors for similar incidents.
In previous papers, I have described techniques that can be used to support the development of mishap
reporting applications in the civilian healthcare, transportation and process industries (Johnson,
2002a). Military incident reporting systems face a number of additional problems. For example, the
command structure can make it difficult to sustain promises of confidential, blame-free reporting.
This is a significant barrier because other systems have identified such assurances as a prerequisite for
the development of trust in any reporting application (Johnson, 2002). Such concerns can have an
important impact on the range of human factors issues that are elicited by military reporting systems
(US Army, 1998). There are further differences. For instance, military organizations recruit young
people and place them in what are often high-risk situations. These individuals are expected to make
highly complex decisions, often involving a range of different technologies. They are, typically,
expected to work in teams and to coordinate their activities with those of their colleagues who may be
collocated or who may be hundreds of miles away. They face physiological and cognitive stresses
that are seldom seen in any other domain. Equally, however, military personnel must often face
hours of inactivity or of repetitious training that induces fatigue, boredom and inattention.
Much can be gained from studying the diverse incidents that are elicited by military reporting
systems. As we shall see, many of these incidents reveal the limited support that existing models of
human ‘error’ provide for the investigation of these complex, multi-party incidents (Johnson, 1999).
Some models focus on performance shaping factors. These approaches neglect the ways in which
environmental factors change rapidly from moment to moment as systems fail and colleagues
improvise temporary solutions and coping strategies.
Other more recent approaches focus on
organizational factors. These underemphasize the role that individual responsibility, autonomy and
local decision-making must play in situations that cannot easily be predicted.
2. An Overview of Military Incident Reporting
It is impossible in a single paper to adequately cover the range of reporting systems that support land,
sea and air forces. This paper, therefore, focuses on army reporting systems. The interested reader
is directed to Johnson (2002) for an analysis of other military systems. Table 1 illustrates the
importance of military incident reporting systems by presenting the US Army’s casualty statistics for
recent military operations. As can be seen, accidents continue to represent a significant cause of
injury to military personnel. Questions can be raised about the reliability of such statistics. They
were released with the specific intention of reducing accident-related injuries. However, it is
important to recognize the US Army’s concern that the proportion of accident related casualties might
rise because of the increasing use of complex, highly integrated technological systems. Table 1 also
illustrates the disparity between accident related casualties and what are termed ‘friendly fire’
incidents. This is important because the 1% of casualties that stem from these incidents receive a
disproportionate amount of public and military attention compared to the more mundane occupational
injuries that represent the bulk of incidents and accidents.
Friendly Fire
Enemy Actions
World War II
Desert Storm &
Desert Shield
Table 1: Percentage of Reported Casualties (US Army, 1998)
Incident reporting systems form part of a wider risk management process. For instance, the US
Army’s (1998) Technical Field Manual FM100-14 identifies five stages in risk management: 1.
Identify Hazards; 2. Assess Hazards; 3. Develop controls & make risk decisions; 4. Implement
controls; 5. Supervise and evaluate. Incident reporting helps all of these activities. For instance,
accounts of previous adverse events or near miss incidents can directly inform the identification of
potential hazards. For example, the US Army recently released a safety notification when its
reporting system showed that drowning and water-related mishap were occurring at almost twice the
anticipated rate during the Summer of 2002. An analysis of the incidents revealed that most of the
incidents stemmed from the incorrect handling of small boats. This triggered an analysis of the
previous decade’s incident statistics. Over this period there were 141 reported incidents, some
involving more than one fatality. Only 1 death occurred at a swimming pool with Army lifeguards.
Most incidents occurred in open water or near the shoreline. Lake and river recreation produced 41%
of the drowning incidents. Ocean swimming fatalities accounted for a further 16%. Military training
operations accounted for 11% of the drownings. 9% drowned after vehicle accidents (US Army
Safety Center, 2002).
Incident reporting can also support the third stage in the US Army’s risk management process because
accounts of previous mishaps often describe ways in which barriers failed. This enables safety
officers to refine the measures that are intended to prevent the causes or mitigate the consequences of
adverse events. For instance, a recent incident report described how a soldier fell while attempting to
negotiate an ‘inverted’ rope descent. Previous training related incidents had led to the development
of US Army standard FM 21-20. This requires that the obstacle should include a platform at the top
of the tower for the instructor and the student. A safety net should also be provided. This standard
also requires that the obstacle should be constructed to reflect the Corps of Engineers drawing 28-1395. Unfortunately, this diagram did not include a safety net or a platform. The incident investigators,
therefore, concluded that ‘confusion exists concerning the proper design and construction of this
obstacle' and the diagram was revised to remove any potential inconsistency. The incident not only
helped to reinforce the need for the physical protection of the safety net, it also helped to clarify the
procedures and guidance that were intended to ensure that a net had been provided in the first place
(US Army Safety Center, 2001).
Figure 1 shows two military incident reporting systems. The image on the left is the opening screen
to the US Army’s Center for Army Lessons Learned (http://call.army.mil/). This illustrates the way
in which many safety-related reporting systems are also used to elicit more general operational
This should not be surprising given that more operational failures in a military
environment will have safety-related consequences. US Army personnel can exploit this lessons
learned system to find a host of more detailed safety-related publications and information sites, for
instance covering engineering incidents.
The figure on the left is the Canadian Defense Force’s
Safety Digest (http://www.vcds.dnd.ca/dsafeg/digest/intro_e.asp).
This illustrates how military
reporting systems provide feedback about adverse events. Each edition identifies a number of
general safety concerns from the individual incidents and accidents that have been identified over the
previous months. The intention behind the bulletin is not to provide statistical information. The
problems of under-reporting make it difficult to derive reliable incident frequencies. In contrast, the
intention is to remind staff of the importance of safety concerns and also to inform them of changes in
operating procedures or acquisition policy that have been triggered by previous adverse events.
Figure 1: Military Incident Reporting Systems and Lessons Learned Applications
The US Army’s Picatinny Arsenal reporting system illustrates the human factors and other operational
insights that can be gained by these applications (US Army, Product Manager, Paladin/FAASV,
2000). The Arsenal maintains a lessons learned system for technicians working on the 155mm
M109A6 self-propelled howitzer, known as the Paladin.
A series of problems stemmed from
situations in which the driver’s hatch was opened with ‘extreme’ force. This caused the pin that
secures the drivers hatch-stop to break. This defect could have rendered the vehicle inoperable
according to the Paladin Operators Manual (TM 9-2350-314-10). Rather than follow this procedure
or order new parts, many technicians applied ad hoc ‘field solutions’ using poorly fitted cotter pins,
nails, and similar devices. These fixes resulted in more sustained damage to the expensive hatch stop
assembly, which in extreme cases became totally inoperable. The Army’s analysis of previous
incidents, therefore, advocated that each unit hold a small number of spare Grooved Pins at a cost of
$1.78 each. This simple measure was intended to reduce the need for ad hoc maintenance procedure
and thereby avoid the safety risks associated with damaged hatch assemblies.
The (Un)usual Suspects
Military reporting systems remind personnel of the hazards that can arise in a range of different
contexts. For example, the Canadian Defense Force Digest recently described an electrocution
incident. Co-workers exposed themselves to considerable risk in trying to rescue their injured
colleague. The editors of the digest concluded by reminding staff that electrical canes can help to
reduce the risks involved in isolating electrocution victims. This incident not only shows that role
that reporting systems can play in reminding staff of hazards and counter-measures, it also illustrates
the way in which they help to open dialogues across an organization. Engineering staff criticized the
recommendations made by the editor of the Defense Force Digest. Canadian national rules require
that trained personnel should be no closer than 0.9 meters from the victim during incidents involving
425V to 12,000V. This would prohibit the use of electrical canes. The correspondent argued that
the focus should have been less on rescuing the injured person and more on the prevention of such
incidents; “unless management creates a safety culture based on risk management and unless
supervisors instill this workplace ethos in their workers… and then enforces this view consistently,
we will never break the chain and accidents will continue to occur'' (Canadian Department of National
Defense, 1999).
Many of the incidents reported to military systems are similar to those that are elicited by civil
applications. The previous incident could have been reported in the process industries or in power
generation. There are, however, some important differences. In particular, the age profile of the
personnel involved in military operations tends to be much younger than that for civilian occupations.
Military reporting systems also often reflect an extended ‘duty of care’ that is not present in other
domains. For instance, many army systems analyze road traffic accidents involving their personnel
even when they are off duty.
In most commercial systems, these incidents would be left to the
This additional level of involvement not only reflects the duty of care that military
organizations extend to their personel; it also reflects an appreciation of the particular demands that
are created by life in the forces. For instance, the geographical distribution and rotation policies
employed by armies often leads individuals to travel enormous distances to meet family and friends.
A US Air Force commander recently described how one of their staff attempted to drive 2,000 miles
for a weekend reunion.
The particular characteristics of military life not only affect the circumstances that surround more
familiar adverse events, such as road traffic accidents. They also affect the recommendations that are
made in the aftermath of an adverse event. For example, a recent report on road traffic accidents
involving military personnel pointed out that the fatality rate for car passengers increased by 1.1% for
every 100lb decrease in the weight of the car. Occupants of a lightweight car are, therefore, four
times as likely to die in a collision with a Sport Utility Vehicle (SUV) than the occupants of the SUV.
The recommendations made from this investigation caused one correspondent to question the
underlying argument. He responded, “…by this logic, our family car should be a multi-wheeled
armored fighting vehicle” (Canadian Department of National Defense, 2000).
The superficial differences between military and civilian incidents can also hide deeper similarities.
For example, the US Army Safety Center recently investigated an incident in which a seventy-ton
Abrahams tank (M1A1) was overturned.
The outcome was exacerbated because some of the
occupants were not in safely secured within the vehicle. The report has strong similarities with many
recent investigations into the lack of seatbelts in civilian road traffic accidents; “once again, human
error became a contributing factor in the loss of a soldier. Leaders must ensure that they and their
crewmembers are positioned correctly in their vehicles and are taking advantage of all safety features.
The nametag defilade position increases your ability to lower yourself safely inside the vehicle and
prevents excessive exposure of body parts to the elements outside'' (US Army Safety Center, 2001a).
Unfortunately, incidents involving incorrect positioning within military vehicles are almost as
common as incidents in which drivers did not wear their seatbelts. The following month, the US Army
Safety Center received a report of another incident in which a soldier was crushed by an M551A1.
This overturned after being accidentally driven into an excavated fighting position. The injured
soldier was standing in the hatch above the nametag defilade position.
Human factors techniques can be used to analyze these military variants of civilian accidents. For
instance, it might be argued that they represent an extreme form of risk homeostasis. The overengineering of vehicles such as the M1A1 and the M551A1 provides soldiers with an impression of
safety that they then trade against performance. They will perform more dangerous maneuvers and
expose themselves to greater risk because they are confident that the vehicle will protect them against
the adverse consequences of any hazard. The two previous incidents illustrate the dangers of such a
view. Unfortunately, the human factors analysis of risk homeostasis provides few insights that can
be used to avoid future incidents. Without these insights we are as likely to eliminate crush injuries
from nametag defilade incidents, as we are to persuade everyone to wear seatbelts. I would also
argue that this analysis misses important characteristics of military incidents. The soldiers were
performing maneuvers that the vehicles had been designed to execute. They had been informed of
the correct seating positions and yet still exposed themselves to the risk. Such incidents illustrate the
tension at the heart of military incident investigations.
To what degree should we attribute
responsibility to individual operators? To what degree should we attribute responsibility to those that
manage the personnel involved? If we focus on the individual operator then we may miss the wider
systemic factors that influenced their behavior. Equally, the focus on management responsibility
often makes unrealistic assumptions about military organizations’ ability to ensure personnel follow
‘safe operating procedures’ in the face of dynamic demands and complex problem solving situations.
The need to balance systemic factors and individual responsibility does not absolve the military
command structure from responsibility in adverse events. Many mishaps stem from the same flawed
‘safety culture’ that affects civilian organizations. For example, the US General Accounting Office
(1997) monitored the implementation of recommendations following a series of Army Ranger training
incidents. They identified problems not simply in the implementation of those recommendations but
also in the way in which they were drafted in the first place. For example, one recommendation
required that the Army develop ‘safety cells’ at each of the three Ranger training bases. These were
to include individuals who had served long enough to develop experience in each geographic training
area so that they understood the potential impact of weather and other local factors on training safety.
However, the National Defense Authorization Act that embodied these provisions did not establish
specific criteria on the makeup of a safety cell. The General Accounting Office concluded that the
approach chosen by the Army ‘represents little change from the safety oversight practice that was in
place’ at the time of the incidents. They also found problems in the conduct of annual site safety
inspections. Those inspections that took place often-focused on ‘checklists of procedural matters’
such as ‘whether files of safety regulations and risk assessments are maintained’ rather than on
monitoring the effectiveness of recommendations after incidents have been analyzed.
The tension between identifying systemic causes and punishing individual violations can be seen in
the relationship between reporting systems and the mechanisms of military justice. For instance, the
US Army's (2000) Accident Investigation and Reporting Procedures Handbook states that
recommendations should not “address an individual’s failure in a particular case” but should instead
be “directed at the level of command/leadership having proponency for and is best capable of
implementing the actions contained in the recommendation”. However, this more enlightened view
can be contrasted with the legal provisions that govern military courts. For instance, Chief Justice
Lamer of the Supreme Court of Canada explained in R. v. Généreux in 1992 that “Breaches of
Discipline to allow it to meet its particular disciplinary needs. In addition, special service tribunals,
rather than the ordinary courts, have been given jurisdiction to punish breaches of the Code of Service
Discipline. Recourse to the ordinary criminal courts would, as a general rule, be inadequate to serve
the particular disciplinary needs of the military. There is thus a need for separate tribunals to enforce
special disciplinary standards in the military”.
4. Factors that Complicate Military Incident Reporting
The previous section has argued that there are many similarities between military and civilian
reporting systems. The majority of adverse events reported to armed forces are slight variations on
the occupational injuries, the slips, trips and falls that many human factors practitioners will be
familiar with. In contrast, the following paragraphs describe a number of factors that complicate and
characterize military reporting systems.
4.1. Achieving Safety AND Mission Success?
Individuals must be able to decide whether or not a particular incident ought to be reported for further
investigation. Some organizations provide guidance by listing the types of adverse event that should
be reported to their systems. The obvious limitation of this approach is that some safety-related
incidents may not be listed.
Other organizations identify a reporting threshold in terms of
consequential loss. A report may be required if particular items of equipment are damaged or if the
repair costs of any damage exceed a particular threshold value. The task of making such assessments
is complicated if the costs of an incident are taken to include environmental impact.
Similarly, it
can be difficult to account for injuries and diseases or psychological adverse effects using such
financial thresholds. Most organizations, therefore, define additional reporting criteria to explicitly
list the types of physical harm that should trigger an incident report. The following excerpt from the
US Army’s Countermeasure illustrates the most clear-cut triggering condition; a fatality initiates
attempts to learn lessons about the safety of particular military operations. “The unit was engaged in a
river crossing operation when the decision was made to float downstream. Even though current
readings had not taken place, a safety boat was not on standby and an exercise participant was not
wearing a flotation device, the squad decided to proceed with the mission. The rivers current was
strong enough that it pulled all the team’s elements under an anchored barge. Some of the team
members survived, but two of them did not. Leaders must re-emphasize when encountering an
unsafe situation, the mission must now become safety” (US Army Safety Center, 2001b).
Ideally, however, we would like to identify potentially hazardous operations before a fatality occurs.
We must, therefore, identify the lesser consequences that should also trigger an investigation. This
creates problems because if we set the criteria too low we can be swamped by reported and may lack
the resources to conduct a proper investigation into adverse events. Conversely, if the criteria are set
too high then we may lose valuable opportunities to learn before a fatality occurs. There are further
complications. Outcome measures cannot be directly used to assess the criticality of near-miss
incidents. The fact that an adverse event was avoided forces investigators to make crude estimates of
the ‘worst plausible outcome’. Similarly, there may be certain types of adverse event that should be
investigated even though they resulted in outcomes that would not normally be serious enough to
warrant an investigation. For instance, public anxiety over previous injuries to recruits or conscripts
during initial training has persuaded many armies to devote additional resources to the investigation
and analysis of these mishaps. It is for this reason that some military organizations hold review
boards to discuss the circumstances surrounding an adverse event or near miss before deciding
whether or not it should be analyzed in greater detail. This approach creates problems when
inconsistent decisions are made to investigate some mishaps but to ignore other similar events. Most
military systems rely upon a compromise approach that publishes a list of ‘typical incidents’ but also
allows considerable scope for individual discretion (Johnson, 2002).
The task of identifying an adverse event is, however, more complicated in military systems. Many
operations carry an intrinsically high level of risk. One consequence of this is that military incident
reporting systems often elicit information about hazards that were well understood before the incident
occurred. In many cases, it is impossible to entirely eliminate the potential hazard from occurring
again without also sacrificing military objectives. For instance, the risk of drowning in river crossing
exercises is well understood but most armies cannot avoid these operations. Steps can be taken to
reduce the risks involved in such operations but they are unlikely to entirely eliminate the risks
(Johnson 2002, Perrow 1999). The focus of military reporting is, therefore, often directed towards the
particular decision making processes that led to a risk being accepted rather than to the individual
actions that immediately led to an adverse outcome. For example, if soldiers choose not to accept a
risk then they must often seek alternative means of achieving their objectives. This creates complex
situations in which it might be preferable to accept a short-term safety hazard than adopt an
alternative strategy that might involve prolonged exposure to a series of lesser hazards. It might be
‘safer’ to cross a river and take the risk of drowning than lead a team on a longer route through
mountainous terrain. Sadly, however, individual blame is often assigned if the hazard is realized
irrespective of the decision that was made. Hindsight bias is a familiar aspect of military incident
reporting systems.
4.2. Tensions Between Training and Operations
One of the most significant differences between military and civilian incidents is that troops are often
deliberately exposed to hazards in training exercises so that they can acquire necessary operational
skills. Military training exercises are carefully designed so that any exposure occurs under controlled
circumstances. Initial exercises using simulated munitions are mixed with ‘live fire’ exercises.
These simulated operations are choreographed; the position of every participant and every system is
often predetermined down to the last second.
Unfortunately, training mishaps still occur even under carefully controlled conditions. This can be
illustrated by an explosives incident that took place during a US Army nighttime training exercise.
The intention was that two platoons would lead engineers across the line of departure. They would
then be followed by a third maneuver platoon. The two lead platoons were to occupy ‘support-by-fire
positions’. The engineers and the third maneuver platoon were then to occupy hide positions before
attempting to breach a triple-strand, concertina wire barricade. Such nighttime maneuvers require
considerable preparation and the exercise was rehearsed several times. A daylight walkthrough was
conducted without weapons, munitions or explosives. This was followed by a ‘dry fire' exercise with
weapons but without munitions or explosives. The detailed breaching plan involved a team leader
and two team members. The supporting members were to deploy 1.5-meter sections of M1A2
Bangalore torpedo into the concertina obstacle. The team leader would then pass elements of the
initiation system to the team members who were to tie in the torpedoes to the detonating cords. The
initiation system ‘consisted of a ring main (detonating cord about 1 meter formed into a loop) with
two M14 firing systems (approximately 1 meter of time fuse with blasting cap affixed to one end)
taped to the ring main' (US Army Technical Center for Explosives Safety, 2000). At the opposite end
of the M14 firing systems was an M81 fuse igniter that had been attached before the start of the
operation. The team leader was to give each team member one of the M81 fuse igniters. On his
command, they were then to pull their M81 and initiate the charge. The breaching team was then to
retreat to their original hiding place. The detonation was to act as a signal for a marking team to use
chemical lights to help the following platoons locate the breach.
The incident began when the breaching team approached the concertina objective. The two-team
members successfully placed their Bangalore torpedoes on either side of a potential breach site. The
leader then handed the initiation system to them so that they could tie-in the Bangalore detonating
cord lines. The team leader then handed one of the two M81 igniters to the team member on the left
side of the breach. The team leader departed from the original plan when he placed the second M81
on the ground between the two-team members. Instead, he handed a bag containing approximately
eight meters of detonating cord and an extra M14 initiation system to the team member on the righthand side of the intended breach. The team leader then radioed the platoon leader to inform them of
his intention to fire the charges. The left-side team member picked up the M81 fuse igniter that had
been left on the ground. He also had the original M81 that had been given to him by the team leader.
The right-hand team member held the two M81s from the bag. The team members pulled the M81
fuse igniters on the leader's order ‘three, two, one, PULL’. A Battalion S3 (operations, planning, and
training officer) observed the burning fuses and the added charge in the bag, which had been placed to
the right of the Bangalore torpedoes. He asked about the additional charge but did not receive any
reply. The demolition team and the S3 then moved back approximately twenty-five meters to separate
hiding locations. As intended, the detonation acted as a signal for the marking team and a security
team to rush towards the intended site of the breach. A second, larger, detonation occurred some 3-5
seconds after the first. Both of the approaching teams were caught by the resulting blast. The initial
detonation had been caused by the additional charge in the bag that had been handed to the team
member on the left of the breach. The second explosion was caused by the Bangalore torpedoes.
Johnson (2002) provides a more complete analysis of the causes of this incident. The key point here
is to stress the human factors challenges that are created by the safe conduct of nighttime military
exercises involving multiple teams coordinating the use of sophisticated and potentially hazardous
munitions. The complexity of such exercises makes it difficult to both predict and control all of the
potential hazards that arise. The additional charge moved the training exercise beyond the carefully
choreographed scenarios that had been practiced before the event. Subsequent investigations argued
that the individuals involved should not have had access to the extra detonating cord and M14
initiation system. The excess munitions should have been relinquished before this phase of the
exercise. However, it can also be argued that the ability to deal safely with such unexpected
conditions is an intrinsic part of military training.
The previous incident illustrates the consequences of exposing personnel to hazards, such as the
additional explosive, that were not intended to form part of the training exercise. Conversely,
reporting systems can also document operational problems when training does not adequately expose
personnel to particular hazards. For instance, the Canadian army’s review of their participation in the
NATO Implementation and Stabilization Force in Bosnia-Herzegovina found that: “Many units stated
first aid training packages lack realism and should be oriented to injuries sustained in combat. IV
and morphine training were essential... During 6 months in theatre, no soldier gave artificial
respiration, treated a fracture or did a Heimlich maneuver. However, they did treat 17 bullet-wound
cases, 3 shrapnel-wound cases and 7 minefield cases (foot or leg amputated). As the threat level
dropped for latter rotations, unit comments on the need for IV and morphine training waned, there
seems to be much debate on the usefulness and dangers of teaching this subject. All unit medical staff
strongly recommended that it not be completed because of the inherent dangers that administering IVs
or morphine entails…” (Canadian Army Lessons Learned Center, 1999). These comments illustrate
the complex problems that military systems pose for human factors specialists. Simulations can be
exploited to determine whether units can be trained to safely exploit these techniques under combat
conditions. Such exercises cannot, however, provide guarantees that future mishaps will not occur.
The troop’s perceived operational need for IV and morphine training cannot easily be balanced
against the potential dangers of inappropriate use during subsequent operations.
4.3. The Politics of Acceptable Risk
Military organizations must often focus finite investigation resources on those adverse events that the
public and politicians perceived to be of greatest importance. Incidents involving recruits provide
one example. Heat related injuries during acclimatization training are another. For instance, a series
of incidents involving the Singaporean military led to the development of detailed heat exposure
regulations (Singapore Army Safety Organization, 2001). For the first 2 days of exposure, personnel
should only perform light duties. For the next 2-3 days, the intensity of exercise can gradually be 1-2
weeks if exercise is limited to 2-3 hours in the heat. If the expose is less than 90 minutes then a
carbohydrate-electrolyte beverage should be offered with no more than 8%, or 2 tablespoons of sugar
per liter. If the exposure is greater than 240 minutes then this should be supplement with 1teaspoon
of salt per liter.
As a result, the frequency of heat-related injuries in the Singaporean army has
declined since 1987. However, these recommendations have not eliminated the problem. In 2000,
the Singaporean army’s reporting systems found that there were still approximately 3.5 cases of heat
related injury per 1,000 soldiers in service. In spite of the changes that have been made, the reporting
systems continue to reveal an uneven distribution of cases. The majority occurs in training schools
that prepare National Service recruits for military life. Cases are still clustered around the periods of
physical activity that are allowed in the morning and the afternoon when the heat is less severe.
The Singaporean army faces particular problems in address heat-related injury because of the climate
in which it operates and the diverse pool of recruits that it receives from the National Service intake.
Similar adverse events are mentioned in every military reporting system that I have reviewed over the
last decade. For example, a US General Accounting Office (1994) report highlighted a case in which
a Marine’s death in training was classified as being due to ‘natural causes’ even though he had just
completed 5 pull-ups, 80 sit-ups, and a 3-mile run. Perrow (1999) has argued that we will never
entirely eliminate accidents because of the desire to introduce increasingly complex and tightly
coupled technologies. In contrast, I would argue that the stubborn nature of heat-related military
injuries points to a less sophisticated form of ‘normal accidents’. These do not stem from the
economic pressures for technological innovation. They stem from the organizational pressures that
enable individuals to escape the lessons of the past. Operational and training procedures continue to
depend upon a physiological mismatch between the environments in which a recruit must operate and
their own physical resources. If we remove this mismatch, for example, by introducing more
stringent exposure controls then incidents can be reduced. The point of the exercise may be lost,
however, if individuals are left unprepared for their operational environment when training finishes.
This again illustrates the tension between the need to avoid adverse events and yet provide individuals
with experience in controlling or avoiding the hazards that arise in operational contexts.
As we have seen, military forces have allocated considerable resources to understand and combat the
causes of heat related injuries. The importance of learning from these incidents has increased in
recent years partly as a result of political and public concern, especially over incidents involving new
recruits or conscript and national service units. It is difficult to underestimate the impact of such
influences on military operations. In democratic countries, armies must account for any adverse
events to the politicians and public who employ their services. It, therefore, follows that operational
concerns or training priorities cannot solely be used to determine what is an acceptable military risk.
This is at least in part a political decision. The US and UK forces have recently felt these influences
following apparent clusters of suicides within particular units. Given the diversity of military
operations, however, it is impossible for politicians and the public to provide detailed guidance about
every possible hazard that soldiers might be exposed to. There is an assumption that operations will
be conducted in a ‘safe’ manner. In consequence, single incidents will often act as a trigger for
political and public interest in hazards that have not previous attracted widespread attention. This
can be illustrated by the findings of a Board of Enquiry into the drowning of an Australian cadet.
The Chief of Staff of Headquarters Training Command found that: “I accept the Board of Inquiry
finding that Cadet S drowned as a result of the amount of weed in the water, the depth of water, the
wearing of GP boots and Disruptive Pattern Camouflage Uniform clothing whilst in the water and the
absence of safety devices and inadequate safety precautions for the swimming activity. These factors
contributed to Cadet S's drowning. A swimming activity undertaken by cadets as young as 13 years
with unknown fitness levels and unknown medical conditions in the circumstances existing on 18 Nov
00 at the Bjelke Peterson Dam, was inherently dangerous…I do not accept the finding of the Board of
Inquiry that Corporal X was not fully qualified as an instructor of cadets in the Army Cadet Corps in
accordance with the Army Cadet Corps Policy Manual. Corporal X had completed the Instructor of
Cadets Course and First Aid Course in compliance with the Army Cadet Corps Policy Manual and
was qualified as an Instructor of Cadets'' (Australian Army, Brigadier Chief of Staff, 2001). As we
have seen, however, incidents involving new recruits and cadets often trigger greater concern than
those involving more experienced soldiers. The political and public reaction to this incident went
well beyond the immediate events surrounding the drowning. It motivated a more sustained review
of Cadet activities that questioned the Chief of Staff’s assessment of the competency of the
individuals concerned. For instance, the Australian Minister for Veterans Affairs contradicted parts
of the previous statement when he argued that “the swimming activity was not authorized by (the)
Army and that there was inadequate supervision or monitoring of the Army Cadet Corps activity''
(Scott and Nelson, 2001). In consequence, he suspended all cadet-swimming activities conducted in
areas other than supervised swimming pools until there was a more systematic analysis of the risks
involved in their training.
4.4. Issues of Scale
It is important to emphasize the considerable differences that exist between military incident reporting
systems. Many of these differences stem from variations in the types and scale of operations that are
conducted by the armies of different nations. Some perform relatively limited, ceremonial duties
within their own borders. Others are simultaneously engaged in offensive military operations,
policing and peacekeeping missions throughout the globe. The diversity of such operations and the
geographical distribution of people and material makes for pathological problems.
recommendations that are made following an investigation have to be communicated across huge
distances to potentially very remote locations. They must also be acted on before any recurrence
could happen. It is for this reason that many of the larger military organizations impose tight timing
constraints on their investigation processes. The US Army’s (2000) Accident Investigation and
Reporting Procedures Handbook states that the responsible Department of the Army-level
organization has 60 calendar days to provide an initial response to the US Army Safety Center
describing any corrective actions. Interim and follow-up reports are required every 90 days after this
initial response until the actions are closed.
If the responsible command does not accept the
recommendations then a report must be filed with the Commander of the US Army Safety Center,
with a supporting rationale within 60 days of the initial notification.
Such procedures are necessary because of the extreme complexity of military systems and the
organizational structures that support them. It is extremely easy for safety lessons to be lost amongst
a mass of other operational updates. For example, the US Army issued at least eight revision
requests for the M9 Armored Combat Earthmover manuals in a single month in 2000: TM5-2350-26210, TM5-2350-262-10HR, LO5-2350-262-12, TM5-2350-262-20-1 & 2, TM5-2350-262-20-3, TM52350-262-34, TM5-2350-262-24P, TM5-2815-240-34 & P (US Army Safety Center, 2001c). In
addition to these sources, Armored Combat Earthmover operators also had to monitor two additional
web sites (http://ncc.navfac.navy.mil and http://www.tacom.army.mil/dsa/) that contained further
information about modifications and revised operating procedures for their vehicles. In consequence,
US Army engineers did not always receive necessary technical information. The US General
Accounting Office (1997a) describes how division personnel did not receive revisions to the manual
describing the fuel subsystem on Apache attack helicopters. The aircraft were then grounded and the
maintenance teams wasted many hours troubleshooting because the old manual did not provide
necessary information about how to fit new fuel transfer valves. The lack of an adequate monitoring
system created further logistical problems. It was difficult for engineers to coordinate the
implementation of multiple modifications to individual pieces of equipment. In consequence, the
same item might be repeatedly removed from service while multiple modification orders were
completed. Some items of equipment did not always work together after modifications. This loss of
integration further delayed other maintenance procedures and reduced operational capability. For
instance, modified parts were removed from Huey utility helicopters. Non-modified parts were then
reinstalled because there were no modified parts in stock when the new parts broke.
The US Army’s Modification Work Order (MWO) program was intended to address many of the
problems described above. This intention was to ensure that ‘any identified operational and safety
problems’ were consistently implemented across the US Army (US General Accounting Office,
1997a). A centralized database was developed to record the progress of different maintenance
recommendations. Army headquarters officials and Army Materiel Command officers could issue
queries to check whether individual units met the timescales and objectives that were recommended in
safety notices. Unfortunately, the database was discontinued following a structural reorganization in
1990. Control over modification installation funding was transferred from the headquarters level to
the individual program sponsors who are responsible for major weapon systems, such as the Abrams
tank, or for product centers that support particular pieces of equipment, such as the Squad Automatic
Weapon. The result of this decentralization was that ‘Army headquarters and Army Materiel
Command officials do not have an adequate overview of the status of equipment modifications across
the force, funding requirements, logistical support requirements, and information needed for
deployment decisions' (US Army Safety Center, 2001d).
The US General Accounting Office has triggered the development of several new military information
systems that represent the ‘state of the art’ in incident and accident reporting. Few civil systems have
the capacity to monitor the implementation of recommendations across distributed and diverse
operations. Experience in the military domain has, however, shown that they cannot be regarded as a
panacea. This is illustrated by an incident involving one of the US Army’s M939A2 wheeled vehicles
on a public road (US Army Safety Center, 2001e). Weather and road conditions were good and the
vehicle obeyed the planned convoy speed of 50 miles per hour. In spite of this, the driver of an
M939A2 failed to prevent the trailer that he was towing from ‘fish-tailing’ as he started to descend a
steep hill. One of the tires on the trailer blew and the truck rolled off the road. The subsequent
investigation determined that the tires were well-maintained and showed no defects. Witness
statements and expert testimony confirmed that the vehicle was not exceeding the approved speed
limit. The investigation board’s maintenance expert asked if the unit was aware of any Safety-of-UseMessages or Ground Precautionary Messages on the vehicle. At first, unit personnel said no. They
had only recently received their first two M939A2 trucks as replacements for older models. However,
when the investigation board checked the Army Electronic Product Support Bulletin Board via the
Internet website http://aeps.ria.army.mil/, they discovered two safety messages restricting the
maximum allowable speed for M939A2 trucks to 45 mph until antilock brakes and radial tires were
Further interviews with maintenance personnel determined that they had seen the
messages when they came out. Since the unit did not have any M939A2 trucks at that time, they did
not inform the chain of command.
5. Conclusion
We must learn from incidents in order to reduce the likelihood and mitigate the consequences of
future accidents. Mishap reporting systems provide the feedback that is necessary to avoid recurrences
of adverse events. Most previous work in this area has focused on the development of civilian
systems. In contrast, this paper has examined the ways in which military reporting systems can help
us to understand the causes of technical failure, of managerial problems and of human ‘error’. There
are some similarities between military and civil systems. For instance, both encourage investigators
to look beyond the immediate or catalytic causes of human failure. Similarly, they are both faced
with a tension between attributing blame to individual violations and the need to identify the systemic
causes of accidents and incidents. We have also identified important differences. For instance,
military reporting systems must make recommendations that protect personnel in peacetime training
missions but which also leave them prepared for the demands that they may face in future operations.
Military incident reporting is further complicated by the need to determine whether or not individuals
were justified in reaching particular decisions about the complex risks that they must face.
This paper has used our analysis to identify fundamental differences between the nature of human
‘error’ in military and civil systems. Soldiers are often forced to make complex, real-time decisions
about the risks that their personnel are exposed to. For instance, we have considered river-crossing
operations where a brief exposure to hazards with high levels of risk might be preferable to prolonged
exposure to lesser risks. There are, of course, civil parallels where individuals must optimize
performance against risk. I would argue, however, that civil systems seldom provide the prolonged
and explicit training that soldiers receive in making trade-offs between operational risks and
performance gains. This is a repeated theme in the training scenarios that dominate military life.
Further differences can be found in the way in which military personnel are punished when their
gambles fail. A form of hindsight bias often ‘informs’ punitive actions by military tribunerals.
Lessons learned systems and confidential reporting mechanisms provide valuable alternatives that
reflect the growing appreciation of systemic causes in the failure of civilian systems.
Many military reporting systems contain incidents that reflect the wider tension between ensuring that
training is ‘safe’ whilst still providing personnel with the necessary skills that help to ensure
operational efficiency. Soldiers are often exposed to hazards in order to prepare them for the
pressure of operational tasks. As we have seen, considerable efforts are made to sure that these
hazards are controlled during training operations. Dry fire rehearsals are conducted. The movements
and actions of each participant and their supporting systems are choreographed. Even so, mishaps
continue to occur. We have argued that these accidents are ‘normal’.
Not because they are
acceptable but because they continue to occur in every army throughout the globe. They stem from
the complexity and interconnection of military operations. Many mishaps also have ‘wicked’ causes
that cannot easily be predicted or controlled before the event. For instance, it would have been
difficult to alter the plan behind the Bangalore torpedo incident to explicitly include a plan of what to
do should additional munitions be available during the exercise. Only in hindsight can we identify
this as a potential hazard for the personnel involved in the operation. Given that the material was
available, it is similarly difficult to argue that planning staff should have considered the possibility of
a preliminary explosion triggering the arrival of the breeching units before the torpedo exploded. The
difficulty of predicting all of the possible ways in which mishaps might occur is further complicated
by the ‘risky’ nature of many military operations.
The Canadian Lessons Learned in NATO
peacekeeping operations illustrated this point. Injuries from mines led soldiers to explicitly request
training in the use of IV lines and morphine. This creates potential risk if these techniques are used
inappropriately. The catch-22 of military safety management is that there is also a risk that lives can
be risked if soldiers do not have these skills.
6. Acknowledgments
UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Council grant (EPSRC GR/M98302) has provided support for
the work that is described in this paper.
This work was also supported by a NASA/ICASE
fellowship, funded under NASA contract NAS1-97046, Task 212.
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