26 June, 2011

Revisionist Predicting (Wimbledon's Sweet 16 - WTA)

I consider myself a pretty savvy tennis fan.  I watch tournaments, go to tournaments, read the press and generally keep up with the sport on a daily basis.  By the time I get to a major there's usually a player or two whom I've heard of, but need to see play.  I can't remember the last time we made it to the fourth round of a Wimbledon and two players are in the mix who I not only couldn't pick out of a lineup, but have frankly never heard of before.

I'm also a pretty honest guy, after the men's preview, I'm tired, so forgive me Billie Jean King and Stacey Allaster, here's a slightly truncated (but no less accurate) Wimbledon women's round of 16 preview.

Top Half

(1) Caroline Wozniacki vs. (24) Dominika Cibulkova

When Wozniacki isn't under extreme pressure to win she does so rather regularly.  No, she still hasn't won a major, but she's simply a league above Cibulkova and should move on with ease.

Prediction: Wozniacki in straight sets

(5) Maria Sharapova vs. (20) Shuai Peng

How long's that serve going to hold up for Masha?  I think she'll get through this round, but not without some pressure from the Chinese player and not without a lapse at some point that pushes this match to extra time.

Prediction: Sharapova in three sets

Sabine Lisicki vs. Petra Cetkovska

OK, let's start here.  Who the hell is Petra Cetkovska?  I'm told she was briefly in the Top 50.  She's 26 years old, made it to the fourth round of the French Open in 2008, but hadn't won a match at a major since until this Wimbledon.  She won a minor doubles tournament in Prague back in 2007 and has played mostly minor league (ITF) tournaments over most of her career, winning twenty, but never one on the big girl's tour.  Cetkovska's already dismissed top 20 seeds Agnieszka Radwanska and Ana Ivanovic.  Sabine Lisicki is a former top 20 player from Germany, she made the quarters in 2009 and has been making a long comeback from injury playing some of those same ITF tournaments as Cetkovska to get her ranking back high enough for big moments.  Long story short, I have to predict the player I've heard of will win.

Prediction:  Lisicki in three sets

(7) Serena Williams vs. (9) Marion Bartoli ***POPCORN MATCH***

Having only seen a bit of Serena Williams' play in Eastbourne when making my initial predictions, I didn't pick her to get past the two-fisted forehand of the Frenchwoman.  Since then Serena has consistently improved, making veritable mincemeat out of 26 seed Maria Kirilenko in the third round only dropping 5 games.  This post is called revisionist predictions for a reason.  Specifically that I should probably rethink some of the things I said before the tournament began.  Well, Kirilenko's good, but Bartoli's better.  World No. 9, a player who's had some major success and showed some necessary grit in getting past Flavia Panetta in the last round.  Here's my logic, a) I hate having to making a public about-face and 2) No one remembers the guy who picked Serena Williams to win, I'll be the outlier here.

Prediction: Bartoli in three (tight) sets

Bottom Half

Tamira Paszek vs. Ksenia Pervak

The 20 year old Russian is the other player I'd never heard of.  She's near her career high ranking of 83 (currently No. 89), she hadn't won a main draw match at a major until now.  Her biggest claim to fame to date, the junior title at the Australian Open.  So what an opportunity to play the rebounding Austrian, Paszek, for the quarterfinals at Wimbledon instead of say, a Williams sister or Sharapova.  This is a nice result for both players, but Paszek will be the one with the opportunity to improve upon it.

Prediction: Paszek in straight sets

(4) Victoria Azarenka vs. Nadia Petrova

I'm going to assume Azarenka finishes the match.  That may be foolish.  Azarenka has retired from matches nine times in the last 18 months.  I'll never question an athlete's injury, but if I were in Vegas, I'd never put money down on her no matter how big a favorite she is.  That said, Azarenka's playing well right now.  On the other side of the net, the veteran Petrova, who narrowly missed being seeded, has been spotty of late.

Prediction: Azarenka in straight sets

(8) Petra Kvitova vs. (19) Yanina Wickmayer

Kvitova was my pre-tournament favorite to win it all.  I like what I've seen from her and don't think the "other" Belgian can get it done against her.

Prediction: Kvitova in straight sets

(23) Venus Williams vs. (32) Tsvetana Pironkova

Venus wants a little revenge on Pironkova who beat her here last year and benefited from her injury-induced withdrawal in Australia, with the way she's been playing of late, I'd bet she's gonna get it in this match.

Prediction: Williams in straight sets

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