Madeleine: The sinister and innocent explanations of the police's DNA evidence


Last updated at 17:32 12 September 2007

New forensic "evidence" against the McCanns is apparently emerging on a daily basis.

But with Portuguese police and the Forensic Science Service laboratory in Birmingham refusing to comment on media reports, nobody knows exactly what samples have been found or, crucially, how important they might be.

In Madeleine's case, both her parents and twin brother and sister share some identical DNA characteristics, which could cloud any evidence.

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McCann hire car

There is also the danger of "secondary transfer", where the sample could have been passed on from Madeleine via a member of her family or a toy or item of clothing.

If forensic scientists have discovered body fluids, not blood, they might have a better chance of accurately predicting whether they came from a living person.

Material released from a decomposing body has its own forensic signature.

The key to the tragic puzzle is Madeleine, and if Portuguese police find her body in fresh searches around Praia da Luz, many of the questions dogging the case will immediately disappear.

Alan Baker, of the independent forensic science organisation Bericon, said: "At the moment the police are flummoxed because there is no body.

"Once a body has been found a lot of questions are answered - the cause of death, time of death, circumstances of the death - all the unknowns."

Here we examine the two sets of alleged DNA "evidence" - and the sinister and innocent possible explanations.

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Madeleine McCann


Despite flying home, the McCanns kept their hire car on extended lease in Portugal.

It is believed they wanted to ask an independent forensic scientist to conduct tests in the face of police claims to have found evidence of Madeleine in the vehicle - which, astonishingly, the couple were allowed to continue to drive.

They hired the Scenic on May 28, more than three weeks after Madeleine disappeared on May 3.

They have had the car ever since - save for 48 hours a month ago, when samples were taken which have led to the reports of crucial forensic evidence.

Its present whereabouts are unclear. Police refuse to say whether they have investigated who hired the car in the 25 days between Madeleine's disappearance and when the McCanns collected the vehicle from the hire company.


Two separate sources have said blood was found in the boot of the car, but yesterday it was reported that the significant find was bodily fluid.

According to one source, it was actually beneath the upholstery. Another sample was reportedly found within the vehicle but it is unclear where.

Sinister explanation:

Madeleine's body was hidden in the boot and dried blood from a wound could have fallen off into the boot.

Or her body was never in the car, but a sheet or blanket used to wrap her body was.

Blood or some other bodily fluid on the blanket or sheet would then rub off into the hire car - slightly more plausible than the extraordinary suggestion that the McCanns somehow drove around with Madeleine dead in the boot with the full glare of the world's media upon them.

Innocent explanation:

Madeleine hurt her leg when she tripped while climbing the steps of the holiday plane, a moment captured on a mobile phone video and cherished by her family as the last moving pictures of her.

She bled on her shoe, which was put in the hire car when the McCanns moved from the Ocean Club to their rented villa in early July.

As the car bumped along the Portuguese roads, a dried fleck of blood could have dropped off the shoe into the car.

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Kate McCann


A "substantial" amount of Madeleine's hair is said to have been found in the boot of the car.

Sinister explanation:

Detectives say there was so much that it could not be from DNA "secondary transfer" - only from Madeleine's body being in the boot.

Innocent explanation:

Madeleine's blonde hairs are bound to have been all over her clothing after naturally falling out during brushing.

Items of her clothing were moved along with the rest of the McCanns' belongings and could easily be found in the boot.



A "full" match of Madeleine's DNA has allegedly been found on a window sill.

If it was her hair or a flake of skin, it is hard to see why there would be the slightest significance in this, given that Madeleine could obviously have come into contact with the sill.

A British source said it was Madeleine's blood on the sill. Not only that, but the source added that a "spatter" pattern of blood specks was found there.

Sinister explanation:

Madeleine was slapped or hit with such force that her blood spattered there.

Innocent explanation:

She accidentally cut or scratched herself while playing. Perhaps she cried and threw her arms in the air, the movement sending drops of blood flying to the window sill.


Police told Gerry McCann they found a trace of Madeleine's blood on the floor under the sofa in the apartment.

Sinister explanation:

Her body was hidden under the sofa and later moved.

Innocent explanation:

After accidentally cutting herself, Madeleine crawled under the sofa while playing.

Alternatively, perhaps she took off a piece of clothing with blood on it and stuffed it out of the way under the furniture.

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Gerry McCann


A source said the police had found one "full" and one "partial" match of Madeleine's DNA in the car, and one 'full' match in the apartment - but did not identify what it was.

Various media reports have described "matches" as anywhere between 78.75 per cent and 99 per cent - although Alan Baker says that British forensic reports do not talk in terms of percentages - instead they express a match in phrases such as "limited", "moderately good", or "very strong".

Alipio Ribeiro, national director of the Policia Judicaria, has played down reports of a perfect match in the Madeleine case.

He said: "We can't say with certainty whether it was the blood of Person A or Person B."


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