Decision time nears for pro prospects

Sun | Sports

Williamses huddle

Marvin Williams, the 6-foot-9 freshman from Bremerton who helped North Carolina win its first national title since 1993, was scheduled to sit down and talk with coach Roy Williams about his future today in Chapel Hill, N.C.

Williams has publicly indicated that he would like to return to North Carolina, although NBA draft experts have speculated he would likely be one of the top five picks if he opted to declare himself eligible for the draft.

• Return to college or go pro? Players who have been through the process say it's not an easy time.

By John DeLong

Winston-Salem Journal

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — It's a no-lose proposition, really. It's like winning the lottery and having to decide whether to take the lump sum or the annuity.

Let's face it. The decision that Wake Forest's Chris Paul, North Carolina's Raymond Felton and Marvin Williams and others are struggling with right now as they ponder their basketball futures is not exactly like having to pick between Vietnam or Canada.

If they choose to enter this year's NBA Draft, they become guaranteed millionaires and realize their lifelong dreams of playing at basketball's highest level. If they resist the temptation and return to their schools, they will continue to be Big Men on Campus, with the comfort of knowing that the money should still be there a year from now.

But that doesn't make the choice easy.

Those who have gone through the process remember the sleepless nights and the churning inside their stomachs, and they have empathy for Paul and the others.

"It's a real confusing time, very nerve-wracking," Chris Bosh, Toronto's second-year forward who left Georgia Tech after his freshman year, said recently. "You have the thought in your head, 'Maybe I should go back to school, but if I go back I might not be as good as this year, and if I go, I might not do well. So like, you're thinking in a double-negative all the time."

Even after making the decision, doubts linger.

"I changed my mind so many times, it was unbelievable," said Luol Deng, a rookie with Chicago who left Duke after his freshman season. "Even now, I don't know if I made the right decision or not."

Players have until May 14 to decide whether to make themselves eligible for this year's NBA Draft, which is scheduled for June 28. They can withdraw their names up to June 21, as long as they do not hire an agent. The NBA Draft lottery is scheduled for May 24, meaning in theory that a player can size up what team will likely draft him, and then pull out if he's not satisfied.

Washington's Nate Robinson is one of 10 underclassmen who have already declared for the draft, and North Carolina's Rashad McCants has told reporters that he will.

The pay scale for this year's picks has yet to be determined, but the money will be substantial.

Orlando's Dwight Howard, the No. 1 selection in last year's draft, got a three-year guaranteed deal worth $13.479 million, with options pushing the total to $27.42 million over five years. Charlotte's Emeka Okafor, the No. 2 pick, got a three-year guaranteed deal worth $12.06 million with options pushing the total to $24.57 million over five years. Chicago's Ben Gordon, the third pick, got $10.83 million guaranteed over three years with options totaling $22.117 million over five years.

All 31 first-round picks get three-year guaranteed deals, with options for the fourth and fifth years.

"The most-important thing to remember is that getting to the NBA is only half the battle," Okafor said. "Staying there is the other half. Some players are just trying to get to the NBA. They think when they get drafted they've accomplished what they set out to do. They figure they've got three years to develop, which is true. But if you're not really ready to play in the NBA, you're going to spend three years on the bench, and you're not going to develop the way you should."

Deng's and Bosh's situations are typical of what Paul and the rest are facing.

Deng was the ACC's rookie of the year in 2003-04, helping Duke make it to the Final Four. His options: return for a second season at Duke and continue to develop under Coach Mike Krzyzewski, with the lure of a possible national championship playing alongside J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams, or go pro, where he was projected to go between third and seventh in the draft.

Deng chose the draft. He was taken by Phoenix with the seventh pick, then traded to Chicago on draft night. As the seventh pick of the 2004 draft, Deng got a three-year guaranteed deal worth $7.33 million, with options raising the potential numbers to $15.1 million over five years.

"It was a very, very tough decision for me because I was in love with the place I was at," Deng said. "I was totally comfortable at Duke. I loved everything that was going on. I loved my coaches, we just went to the Final Four, and everything was great. Now, the guys who don't like college or don't like the situations they're in, it's easy for them. It's automatic. So in a lot of ways it's really about how much you love your school."

Deng said that his over-under for making a decision was the lottery — or being in the top 14.

"It came down to, my whole life, since being a youngster, I always wanted to go to the NBA," Deng said. "When it came time to make the decision the year before (out of high school) I said no, but the year after I felt like I was being selfish to my family, and I could help them out in so many ways. After I sat down with the coaches, they made it easier for me because they just said, 'Follow your heart.' My heart was really in the NBA at the time."

Bosh could have returned for his sophomore season at Tech and been part of a talent-laden team that lost to Okafor's Huskies in the national finals. He was projected to go anywhere from fourth to ninth in 2004 mock drafts and wound up with his best-case scenario — fourth.

"You feel like you're being pulled in different directions," Bosh said. "It kinda messed with my mind a little bit. Some people said, 'You're not ready, you need more time.' Some people said, 'You are ready.' And some people said, 'It doesn't matter because they're drafting people on potential.' So it basically comes down to, you have to follow your heart. The way I looked at it, eventually you have to prove you can play, no matter what. So I decided to go ahead and go."

Deng and Bosh were emphatic that their college coaches were supportive and were looking out for their best interests, and not necessarily stacking the deck to try to persuade them to return to college.

Okafor, Bosh and Deng agree that each player's situation is different, and there is no pat answer as to who should return to college and who should go pro. But there is a pat answer for how to act once the decision has been made.

"No matter what decision you make, whether it's staying or leaving, you have to promise yourself you will never look back," Deng said. "If you look back, you will just make it harder on yourself. There's nothing you can do after you make the decision. You've just got to jump in with both feet and make the best of whatever decision you make."