Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Leaving recession, in Malaysia




Anonymous said...

Yes, Malaysia’s economy may have emerged from its first recession in a decade, but what about inflation, and the jobless environment? Coming out of recession does not mean, you are set for a boom, rather you could just fall back into the stagnation viper pitt

ChengHo said...

green technology business; that the way to go ,avoiding competition with China and India

Bleacher said...

I hope there won't be major celebrations during and after this announcement.

Economic historians and observers would likely to say the current Global Economic crisis is still not out of the wood yet. Furthermore economic crisis maybe taking a breather like HiNI. There likely be another economic/financial Tsunami in the making. We just do not know when, what form and how will it impact Malaysia. Like H1N1, the new crisis has tendency to have devastating impact than its predecessor.

Like in war Malaysian Government must be vigilant. It just ain't worst it to announce it just to gain some political mileage. It has back-fired before.

skilganon1066 said...

Sorry, lah - I think the "little red dot" beat you to it! Coming out of recession, that is.

See reports on the Singapore FY2010 Budget which projects a deficit of around 1.1 per cent of GDP (www.businesstimes.com.sg). Which is pretty damn good.

Even big abang Indonesia is projecting a budget deficit of less than 3 per cent of GDP.

Now, what do you think will be Malaysia's budget deficit for 2009? 7.6 per cent of GDP or less? More subsidies on the horizon? International rating agencies sharpening their pencils?

Greece ran up a budget deficit of 12.7 per cent of GDP last year and the Euro got hammered as a result. The spread on Greek sovereign bonds over their German counterparts is horrendous.

Of course, one can't expect the resident intellectuals at Perkasa or Umno Youth to be able to debate such abstruse matters now, could you? It is far, far easier to parade in the streets and shout.

Heck, maybe KJ should put his expensive Oxford education to the test and draft out an economic manifesto for Malaysia. Now that would be something worth reading!

Anonymous said...


While the anti-UMNO cybertroopers were busy criticising Najib, he was busy being the CEO of Malaysia Inc.

And there ARE results to show.

Er..hhmm, any from the pakatan besides the road shows, eh?

cough cough ...

Old Fart said...

Let the plundering begin!!

Anonymous said...

So what if it really out?

Fact is, these are all silly shiok sendiri stunt.

Day by days our purchasing power are raped by our leaders, what I know is our quality of life did not improve for the past 5 years.
be it in recession or not.

Hopeless Jack

Anonymous said...

Will the Statistical Summary compared to 1995,,,,sama or much much lower,,kalu better PM bole mendabik dada else,,,,,pergi JAHANAM.

Lihat saja di JPJ berapa ekor orang daftar Kereta,,compared to those days,,!!!!

Dulu sembang di kedai kopi jam 6 petang everybody cakap pasal KLSE,,counter to goreng keesokkan hari,,BUT today,,,anak anak Muda tidak tahu langsung pasal STOCK MARKET...!!!!

Kita tengok macam mana dia tackle three recessions in the past decade,,,!!!!!


Anonymous said...


Muhyiddin Yassin hari ini meminta Pihak Berkuasa Tempatan (PBT) mengambil tindakan tegas terhadap rakyat asing yang didapati menjalankan perniagaan.

Beliau turut memberi amaran akan mengenakan tindakan terhadap peniaga tempatan yang memajak atau menyewa lesen perniagaan mereka kepada rakyat asing kerana tindakan itu akan menjejaskan sumber pendapatan peniaga tempatan lain.

“Ini kerana ada maklumat yang diterima mengatakan rakyat asing mengambil tempat perniagaan rakyat tempatan di pasar malam, di pasar seperti di Chow Kit dan tempat-tempat lain di seluruh negara.


woit.... BIAR BETUL CAKAP SEMBAB NI.... kah kah kah..

woit... KALAU BETUL INI SUDAH BAIK.... kah kah kah..


kah kah kah.... INI SERUAN NASIONALIS....kah kah kah..

woit... INI TUNTUTAN DARI JIWA RAKYAT.... kah kah kah..







woit... BILA NAK HALAU LA BODEGA DARI BANGSAR... kah kah ka...













china doll okay ke kalau
jual lendir kah kah kah

Anonymous said...


how is that possible? Baru balik dari govt ministry yang LHDN sibuk collecting backdated tax...Jangan main main tahu....LHDN boleh back date sampai 12 tahun walhal statue limitation pun maximum 6 tahun.


Keturunan Jebat

Anonymous said...

Some ppl will say that the figures r lies and won't believe them

Anonymous said...

Hi Dato,

Najib must ensure that the economy is running well for the next few months as his 1 year anniversary is coming up.

The old dinosaurs (kit siang and ku li) are trying to steal the limelight and make 1 last try to fulfil their ambitions.


Anonymous said...

Yes with the key states Selangor and Penang in the hand of PR our economy is heading out of recession. Thank you Khalid and LGE.

Jati Diri said...


A negative person will always be negative. They will always find ways and reason to pain negativity to any positive news. Even before the full the full announcement. Anon 2.41 is one classic example.

However I am glad that we have a postive minded PM.

Jati Diri

Anonymous said...

Anwar fired his first salvo abt najib's impending announcement tomorrow. Criticising Najib about the economy.


What does Anwar know about economy anyway? Where is his framework of economic transformation for Malaysia?

He never has one. The closest we have was his New Malaysian Economic Agenda. But that was just rhetorical without any specific mechanisms brought forth.

Basically, he appears to be like a mute trying to explain to his son how does a song sounds like.

Anwar kaki auta - dulu, kini, selamanya...

Tun Perak

Adi Rahim said...

I work for an Investment Bank (its an international one with HQ in Paris and large research team in KL and Singapore) - and I am very surprised with PM's statement as our figures do not tally with what PM is announcing.
For 4 quarters straight we have seen:
1. Nett Outflow of capital - of which the figure doubled in last quarter alone. Capital flight for Malaysia has been at its highest ever in 2009. Whereas Capital inflows is at its lowest. We do not think the figure will rise for next 3 years as we believe most Malaysian corporates with international investments will not repatriate the profits but will reinvest in new international ventures.
2. Oil & Gas revenue declined by 50 % in 2009 compared to 2008. - which had effect of halving government revenue.
3. 2009 saw Domestic Investment overtake FDI - with even DDI figure almost 35% lower than previous year.
4. Calculated 10% real inflation rate based on basket of 20 most staple items.
5. Although last quarter saw an increase in demand for electronic manufactured goods from orders in US - the rise was still 58% lower than figure for corresponding year.
6. The real employment uptake of graduates is stll lower than 2008 and 2007 figures.
7. The KLSE has been relatively stable for the last year - but this is due to lack of major IPOs (except Maxis) and lack of interest amongst consumers.

Thus I cannot see how the government figures add up - as on the ground sentiment is quite the opposite.
I know many Investors and Researchers will be scrutinizing the details being announced tomorrow as we need to get some clarity on this.

Anonymous said...

sigh! its has always been Najis's bluff, UMNO's bluff...REMEMBER, Electricity charges will be expensive soon...I understand they have just raised the charges last year...now AGAIN!!! ..then Petrol Prices pu-lak....I thought we have PETRONAS...!!!!!!! ALL the money take to FEED those corrupted UMNO family members...Damn!!!!


Anonymous said...

Actually darling, anon 2:41 pm, cynicism ain't cool. Getting the economy out of recession, now that's cool ...

umar said...

Did Nor Yackob, Badawi or Mustafa Muhamad or EPU or Bank negara ever said we were in recession in the first place ? Now that out of the blue , we are out of recession!Great .All these years of denial suddenly dismissed by this recovery story. MIER never said a word of recession . They keep telling Ringgit would strenghten to 3.00 to USD since 2006 ! Hence all those experts in BNM, MIER , EPU, MIDA, MITI should be shown the door for their elegant silence.

Anonymous said...


I think Anwar Ibrahim doesn't deserve to be in your blog's pole position vis-a-vis Saiful and other blogs.

His blog is already listed in the politicians category anyway.

I know you have a good intention. But the thing is Saiful only writes, once in a while, primarily on sodomy. Anwar, beig a chameleon that he is (or his communications chap), writes on all and sundry at every conceivable opportunity.

In the end he strategically gains more due to your kindness.

At any rate your blog has had a good following on your own merit. You don't need to "tumpang" his to attract traffic. (perhaps when the court is in session?)



Anonymous said...


Kerajaan mahu mengurangkan kos pembinaan hospital di negara ini sehingga satu pertiga tanpa mengabaikan kualiti dan kemudahan yang disediakan, kata Koh Tsu Koon.


woit... INI BERITA AMAT PELIK.... kah kah kah...

woit... INI BERITA BAHAYA... kah kah kah...


woit... KALI INI BELANJA AKAN DI KURANGKAN....kah kah kah..

kah kah kah.... KURANGKAN SIMIN... KURANGKAN BESI... kah kah kah

kah kah kah... UNTUK SAVE BUJET PAKAI ATAP SEBELAH SAHAJA... kah kah kah..

kah kah kah...UNTUK SAVE BAJET DIBUAT KATIL DUA TINGKAT?... kah kah kah..


kah kah kah ... INILAH NAMANYA MALAYSIA BOOOOOLEH... kah kah kah..


ingat buat hospital ini
mintak pada lampu aladin ke?
kah kah kah

Berita Harian

SUNGAI PETANI: Kira-kira 20 keping siling di Hospital Sultan Abdul Halim (HSAH), di sini, runtuh dalam dua kejadian berasingan kelmarin dan semalam masing-masing di Wad Pembedahan Lelaki dan pantri Unit Rawatan Rapi Bayi (NICU).

Kejadian pertama berlaku jam 1.45 petang kelmarin apabila 12 keping siling setiap satu bersaiz 0.6 meter lebar dan 1.2 meter panjang di Wad Pembedahan Lelaki, runtuh tiba-tiba.

Bagaimanapun, siling yang runtuh itu tidak menimpa pesakit di wad berkenaan, yang dijadikan lokasi transit menempatkan mereka yang menunggu untuk dibedah atau dipindahkan selepas pembedahan.

Anonymous said...


Isu pelantikan menteri besar Perlis selepas pilihan raya umum 2008 belum berakhir. Terkini, tersebar di Internet mengenai dakwaan wujudnya 'persefahaman' antara puak yang bertelagah di Perlis mengenai penggiliran jawatan tersebut.

Mengikut 'persefahaman' tersebut - bulan depan tiba giliran Shahidan Kassim pula untuk menjadi menteri besar Perlis yang kini disandang oleh Md Isa Sabu.

Bekas ketua penerangan Umno Perlis,Hashim Suboh yang merupakan penyokong kuat Shahidan, mendakwa wujudnya persefahaman mengenai penggiliran jawatan menteri besar Perlis.

Ketika dihubungi Malaysiakini minggu lalu, beliau mendakwa, persafahaman itu dicapai pada pertemuan pada 21 dan 22 Februari 2008 - sehari sebelum penamaan calon.






anak mat sabu tak kan senyap aje
lawanlaaa. satu Malaysia sudah lama
tak dengar sandiwara gaduh. di ganu
pun senyap juga. gaduhlah baru
satu Malaysia terhibur kah kah kah

Anonymous said...














ingat buat hospital ini
mintak pada lampu aladin ke?
kah kah kah

Berita Harian




antubiul said...

Sorry dude, the worst yet to come. People up there will talk sweet for people down there to realised the sweet cost is too high.Economy contract, recession or not we cant buy trebor sweet 3 pcs for 10 cents anymore, even though its made in Malaysia.

andrew f said...

Technically most Asean countries are out of recession. However in the recently concluded Singapore Budget Paper a lot of red flags were raised by their Finance Minister - which should be a warning to Malaysia.
The key warnings was that China is overheating and US demand was still at low levels with no spikes for some years yet.
If you look at last Econonmist report Malaysia is still trapped in a low wage economy cycle. Malaysia's inflation rate is raising quite drastically but wages have remained stagnent. Thus the middle class and rural and urban poor are going to see a large drop in their ability to spend and therefore will not benefit in the techical rebound. With the necessary ending of subsidies and introduction of GST - the suffering will worsen.
I would be interested in bloggers here to feedback and whether their economic situation has improved or worsened.

hamdan said...

ekonomi dikatakan meleset jika gdp 3 suku negetif berturut2.

mungkin ekonomi perlahan tapi tak meleset..ada beza tu.

Anonymous said...

At the end of the day these statistics are meaningless... Its what everyday people are going through that determines whether we the rakyat know if we are going through good times or bad.
All I know is that my salary has only gone up annually by 3% each year since 2006. However my cost of living in KL has gone up at least 3 times that each year:
Petrol prices are up; Basic food items cost have gone up by about 11%; electricity and water and phone charges have risen. My house payments are rising. Even after making drastic changes to my family's lifestyle I am saving 70% less now than I did 3 years ago and my nett income loss has widened.
I would consider myself a middle class Malay household with 2 kids with link house in KL and one car family.
I would be interested to know whether I am a typical case or an exception? Maybe the rest of you are seeing dramatic improvements in your incomes and lifestyle?
Please tll us more...

Rahmat; Ampang

Anonymous said...

Pelakon dan pengacara popular Maya Karin 31, mengaku rumah tangganya yang dibina lebih setahun lalu kini berdepan dengan krisis.


hishamh said...

Actually, if we base the GDP growth calculation on international standards, which is quarter on previous quarter using seasonally adjusted annualised data, then Malaysia left recession in 2Q 2009. Using the American methodology (NBER business cycle committee), then Malaysia left recession in approximately Feb/Mar 2009.

But in Malaysia we always use unadjusted data, the reporting quarter on the same quarter last year. Since q4 2008 was so traumatic, nobody should be surprised we will be reporting a good figure for q4 2009.

Today's announcement is frankly a non-event - as far as I'm concerned, we've already left the recovery phase.

@Adi Rahim

I'm interested in your data, but I have some queries/comments:

1. Is this portfolio capital (no direct effect on GDP) or corporate capital? Sounds like the latter, but most of the 30%+ gross national savings is actually corporate savings, hence no big surprise much of it is leaving in search of returns.

2. Increase in the net deficit is net positive for GDP, irrespective of source. I'm surprised you're listing this at all.

3. Be careful of the base effect. I'm inclined to classify all 2008 data as outliers because of the commodity boom/bust and the pullback in fuel subsidies. Try looking at the trend/regression from 2007 and back.

4. Food items are notoriously volatile. Clothing and communications prices for instance have been in long term decline.

5. Again, be careful of the base effect. I also consider production of E&E in total as being essentially flat since 2005-2006 and production of electrical (not electronics) goods is now practically non-existent. You can probably forget about future growth. Our current account surplus is now being driven by commodities.

6. Employment always lags recovery in economic activity. No biggie.

7. Not very relevant to GDP. I've tried quite a few model specifications, but I've yet to find a statistically solid relationship between the stock market and GDP.

Anonymous said...

Another load of spins and shioooks to divert the real truth!
Who really cares when this government is all mouth and lieS! Trust your instincts not the government of the day!


Anonymous said...

Bro, our economy contracted, albeit less than the previous quarter. So how can that mean we're out of the recession. The economy needs to GROW, before we can claim such.
This is like saying "alah, kita cuma kalah 1-0 saja, dulu kalah 3-0; jadi kira kita menang lah".

Anonymous said...


apasal susah sangat nak masuk blog lu lately

Anonymous said...

Rocky, next topic please.....!!!!

"Malaysian Circus goes to Washington"

UMNO selalu cakap USA tu jahat, apa pasal hantar pulak 'UMNO Clown' ke Washington ??

UMNO lah cakap tak serupa bikin !!

Goh Wei Lang

laymen said...


That's about Macro Economic.

How about the micro part ????

PS some commenter talk shit

Serigala Sigaraga said...

Nope. The figures are misleading.

Read this, Dato' Rocky.

Straight from the Wall St. Journal:


An institutional overhaul is long overdue in Kuala Lumpur.

Kuala Lumpur | The Wall Street Journal

“The Leopard,” Giuseppe di Lampedusa’s celebrated novel about the crumbling feudal order in 19th century Sicily, made famous the line, “If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change.” That pretty much sums up the predicament of Malaysia’s ruling elite today.

The sodomy trial of Anwar Ibrahim drags on in Kuala Lumpur, with the opposition leader’s freedom and political career hanging in the balance. But the true significance of this anachronistic case does not depend on the outcome in the courtroom. The political assassination of Mr. Anwar aside, Malaysia is witnessing the death throes of a political machine that has run the country for over five decades. Mr. Anwar is a skilled politician who holds together an unlikely alliance of opposition parties—his conviction would certainly be a blow for the prospect of real political pluralism in Malaysia. But he also serves as a vessel for wider social forces and a disenchantment with the country’s leadership. Another figure would surely take his place at the head of the reform movement.

The ruling coalition was founded on the principle that the three main races—Malays, Chinese and Indians—participate in politics through their own parties. Coupled with an elaborate system of affirmative action, this has allowed the United Malays National Organization to maintain a lock on power by protecting Malays from the winds of competition. After the opposition made unprecedented gains in the March 2008 elections, desperate tactics were called for, hence a rather tired repeat of the homosexuality charge first brought against Mr. Anwar a decade ago, now dubbed “Sodomy II” by a skeptical public. The government has denied that the trial is politically motivated.

That the political system and patronage network are under increasing stress is clear, but the prognosis is not yet apparent to all. Some in UMNO, like Prime Minister Najib Razak, think they can maintain the old system by merely tinkering around the edges. Mr. Najib has gestured toward loosening long-standing affirmative-action policies, but any good intentions are obstructed by entrenched interests in UMNO’s conservative wing—to date the repeals have been cosmetic at best. Others are coming to a different realization—Malaysian society has matured and even Malays now recognize that outdated and discriminatory policies must give way to a more transparent and accountable system.

Serigala Sigaraga said...


One such leader is Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, a former finance minister of royal blood. Mr. Razaleigh has re-emerged as an outspoken critic of the government in recent weeks, though he strongly denies any intention of switching to the opposition. The 73-year-old party veteran has a history of challenging the leadership; in 1988 he left UMNO and formed a rival Malay party before returning to the fold in 1996.

Sitting in his Kuala Lumpur home—a remarkably exact replica of the White House’s Oval Office—Mr. Razaleigh argues that UMNO politicians have not been responsive to calls for reform. “The young want to see a really multiracial organization, fighting on egalitarian issues, without having to fall back on race,” he explains. “Unless the party system and the political system are reformed exhaustively, I think we are going to be pulled back into the same boat we have been in for the last 50 years.”

Mr. Razaleigh believes that Malaysians want to move beyond identity politics, but UMNO is unable to break away from its Malay nationalist roots. Most recently, the government appealed a court ruling that allowed the use of the word “Allah” by non-Muslims. Though UMNO called for calm, the prime minister’s statement that he couldn’t stop protestors from expressing their opinions only served to fan the flames. The ruling was followed by a spate of desecration and arson attacks on churches and mosques. Mr. Najib further undermined the government’s response to the crisis when he flew across the world for a 10-day tour of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and India, taking key cabinet ministers and senior officials with him.

By contrast, in a milestone decision, the opposition Islamic party PAS—which only 10 years ago campaigned to create a theocratic state with Sharia law—took a more moderate stance, urging Malaysians to respect the court ruling. The irony is that while UMNO continues to play race politics to out-Islam its opponents, PAS is appealing to a more progressive voter base.

Part of the reason for the electorate’s change of heart is the realization that Malaysia risks being left behind economically if it doesn’t climb out of its middle-income trap and eliminate the inefficiencies inherent in racial policies. These policies were formulated in the 1970s, when Malaysia was a tiger economy. Now its growth lags behind Southeast Asian neighbors like Indonesia—the new “i” in BRIC—and China and India increasingly pose competitive challenges.

The country has suffered from an acute brain drain over the last decade, as individuals seek education and employment in countries where talent is better rewarded. Now it faces capital flight, too, with foreign direct investment dropping to $2.7 billion in 2009 from $8.1 billion the previous year, according to United Nations Conference on Trade and Development estimates. One reason is the fear that UMNO will continue to play the race card and stir up tensions to keep itself in power. Another is the government’s failure to undertake much-needed institutional reforms and address issues such as corruption, civil liberties and judicial independence. Malaysia’s risk index, as calculated by Hong Kong-based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy, rose to 5.4 in January from 5.24 in December on a 10-point scale.

If there is a silver lining here, it is that even as UMNO has stoked tensions, by and large Malaysians have refused to be provoked—a stark contrast to the May 13 Incident in 1969, when rumors of ethnic slights quickly snowballed into massive riots and emergency rule. And that is one more indication that leaders like Mr. Anwar and Mr. Razaleigh are right that Malaysian society is ripe for change. If the current UMNO elite is to stand any chance of remaining in power, it needs to focus on remedying the very real challenges on its doorstep, rather than felling the opposition. Societal reform based on equality of opportunity is a change that is long overdue.

Ms. Lloyd George is a Princeton in Asia fellow at The Wall Street Journal Asia.

Wali Kota said...

Bro Rocky:

News, news, news!!!

Tengku Razaleigh and Lim Kit Siang twitter with each other about the future of Malaysia!

Read it all here.

Anonymous said...

Jakim guna laman web perjelas hukuman rotan wanita

PUTRAJAYA, 24 Feb — Jabatan Kemajuan Islam Malaysia (Jakim) menyediakan maklumat berhubung pelaksanaan hukuman sebat terhadap wanita Islam menerusi laman webnya bagi membolehkan masyarakat mendapat penjelasan berhubung perkara itu.

Ketua Pengarah Jakim Datuk Wan Mohamad Sheikh Abdul Aziz berkata di peringkat negeri, pihak berkuasa negeri mampu mengendalikan program penjelasan seperti yang telah diarahkan oleh Timbalan Perdana Menteri Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

50 tahun pegang tampuk kuasa, asyik hentam PAS pasal hudud dan qisas. Guna MIC dan MCA hentam PAS kaw2 punya. Tak pernah ada kerjasama dalam menyelesaikan dan menegakkan tuntutan Islam. Tak pernah ada inisatif untuk explain pasal hukum islam. Islam dikaca mata UMNO hanyalah Bank Islam dan Kolej Islam, Masjid Kristal dan Perarakan Maulidur Rasul

Laa nie dah terantuk, baru nak tengadah....

too late bro.. we want hudud and qisas so that khir toyo fella can explain where he got the money to build his 24M mansion.

tak boleh bayang dia jalan tanpa kedua2 tangan!

Anonymous said...

Dear Rocky

As an analyst attached with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)on a brief stint in Kuala Lumpur and as an avid follower of this blog, allow me to make a few observations regarding some of the comments forwarded by your readers:

1. IMF conducts a yearly consultation with the respective countries and generates a Country Report and Public Information Notification (PIN) (an abridged version of the Country Report). Both these documents are available electronically from the IMF's official portal. The last review on Malaysia was conducted on August 14 2009 and we found a generally resilient economy going through what everyone elsewhere were experiencing but faring much better. Given that Malaysia is an export-based economy, any slowdown remains perfectly understandable. We undertsand there are legitamate concerns regarding the budget deficit vis-a-vis GDP but in no circumstance whatsoever can Malaysia be bracketed with Greece or for that matter, the so-called PIGS, to use a Euro-coined acronym for Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain.It should be noted that Greece while mired in red ink, is also saddled with a public debt to GDP burden of almost 98% compared to Malaysia's 50%.

2. While Malaysia's deficit appears large, it is our estimation that with the uptick in exports, cost cutting measures and the increases in petroleum revenue, higher inflows of FDI plus the impending rollback in subsidies and the institution of the GST, the deficit will eventually be scaled back to the less onerous levels of 3.5% by 2012.

3. Equity prices are, in general, imprecise indicators of economic health. As such, the lack of action in the local bourse should not be miscontrued in a negative light. In fact, during my periodic visits here, I have noted a perceptible shift in investment patterns away from equities into other assets classes in search of better yields and reflective of the current "risk aversion" scenario gripping global financial markets.

4. Capital outflow is normal during times of economic stress especially in the more advanced capital markets. There has been a dearth of new investments, reinvestments etc due to the global credit crunch and the generally tepid global demand for goods and services. This situation has been further exacerbated by the winding down of investments in Malaysia by foreign principals who have repatriated sizeable amounts of capital as they deleverage and repair balance sheets. With more Malaysian companies investing or expanding their investments overseas, the sudden upsurge in outflows in capital is perfectly normal.Based on our prognostics and ongoing improvements in the global investment climate, we expect normal FDI inflows into emerging markets like Malaysia to resume in the 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2010 amd to rapidly accelerate in 2011.Hence, the Capital Account should show a surplus, latest by mid-2011. It should be borne in mind that politics play a significant role in the inflow and outflow of investments. For instance, our estimates show that since March 2008 to March 2009 (1stQ/2009)total outflows amounted to 121.5b outstripping the inflows of 57b since 2006 to March 2008. This shows a lack of confidence in the policies of certain emergent political coalitions arising from the loss of BN hegemony as well as the perception that Malaysia is bound to undergo a period of political turmoil for the forseeable future due to a weak central government and an politically and ideologically inchoate opposition front, a fact that Malaysians should ponder about.

Economicss, at best, is an inexact science. Hence to sound alarmist based on subjective observations and minimalist data is a puerile exercise and belies a lack of knowledge as to the intricacies and complexities of fiscal and monetary policy as well the inner workings of the global financial architecture.

Richard. M. Greycross
Regional Analyst for East Asia and Far East
International Monetary Fund

skilgannon1066 said...

Oh, yah - while we are patting ourselves on the back for a job well done, can someone explain just why the Singapore dollar is worth RM2.40 and the US dollar is worth RM3.39?

How can this be when Uncle Sam is running a trillion dollar deficit and happily printing money?

Is the government deliberately holding down the ringgit so as to gain export competitiveness, much as China is doing with the yuan?

Or is the Malaysian economy so uncompetitive that the ringgit cannot hope to reach par with the Singapore dollar or reach a level against the greenback pre-1996 crisis levels?

Anyone looked recently at Malaysia's productivity figures? They are horrendous!

Yet the NEAC and the brains behind the GTP have said nothing about the need to increase productivity in order to increase real wages for Malaysians.

Neither has the trade union movement that has been agitating for a minimum wage.

Let's ask Muhyiddin to talk about productivity and competitiveness, shall we? And see what pearls of wisdom emerge from his mouth.

zainal abidin awang kechik said...

mengapa KWSP tidak melabur untuk projek KERAJAAN MALAYSIA sebanyak 100billion.

mengapa Kerajaan Malaysia benarkan genting berhad melabur di Singapura.^6 billion SingDollar untuk Casino .

KWSP perlu melabur di BANK PEMBANGUNAN 100 billion,Bank Pembangun memberi pinjaman kpd syarikat tempat untuk projek sekolah,pengankutan,dalam lain lain untuk rakyat.

100 ribu juta mampu melonjak 1'25 pertumbuhan lagi..

sa;am tok

Anonymous said...

Hishamudin-talk-cock-Melayu-Penangis-Rais masih dok berkeliaran di blog ini. KAH KAH KAH KAHAK. Nape tak balik mampus kat Rusia.

EngHui said...

well you can start celebrating our economy now and happily embracing the impending electricity increase, toll increase, and gst and removal of petrol subsidy....

or you would say... 'WAIT' this doesn't sound right... then hear what the experts are saying

But with this positive news from the PM, i am sure that the BN supporters will be contented and be positive on things from now onwards. And they should be generous towards the non-malays (don't complain about contract / quota etc) and please return oil royalty to the rightful states, because the negative ppl in those states are so negatives that nothing could cheer them up.....

Anonymous said...

The figures do add up - the UMNO way. 1 + 1 = 3 and if you don't believe it, you can sue me and the courts will determine that UMNO is right.


Ainor said...

dear rocky-

i'm going completely off-tangent here. RPK recently posted a commentary on a seminar held in the us where dato' seri nazri and dato' seri jj was in attendance. i'm not interested with the content as rpk is a lying so and so anyway. but what was of interest is that rpk's report seemed to indicate that he was actually in the room with them!

again...either rpk is lying (nothing new) or he's actually there and dato' seri naxri didn't bother to have him arrested! which is which....

your comments, sir

Old Fart said...

"beyond our expectations" -What it means:

Its like you're on the Titanic. But instead of two hours after the crash into the iceberg as originally expected, its now going to take 5 hours, maybe because a crew has managed to plug a leak or something! But sink, The Titanic most definitely will.

Expectations, are just that. Expectations!!

Anonymous said...


I love this quote by Gerald Celente which is so appropriate in this case.

"I am not trying to push pessimism porn but I also refuse to push optimism opium which is being done outstandingly by the mainstream media" and in this case our politicians....

Lets get real bro and lets get down to creating real wealth not stock and financial or statistic manipulation.

Keturunan Jebat

Anonymous said...

Electricity will be charge more to rakyat. I hope we not forgeting this issue.. increase of electricty tariff. TNB just increased the price and why the CEO must burden us further with the current higher price of all goods. Something is wrong here. If economy got better, this should not rise... or find other people to manage TNB.. our PM should think about Kuasa Rakyat..

Anonymous said...

Digress a bit ah.

It has emerged that the wife of the Indonesian-born taxi driver charged with murdering Malaysian consulate driver Mohd Shah Saemin had worked together with the victim and were described as “close”, the Sydney Morning Herald reported today.

So, you still say the Aussies cannot be trusted?


hishamh said...

@andrew f 9:42

No question there's been an improvement. The problem with looking at aggregated data such as GDP is really where and for whom. The numbers indicate that the external sector did far better, but domestic demand flatlined in 4Q.

For GST and abolishment of subsidies, those moves are necessary, but regressive (i.e. the effect will be felt most by the middle class and the poor). A minimum wage won't help, but transfers from the government in some form (a social safety net) are probably called for.

As for Singapore, they are in dire danger of a double dip in their economy. The main difference with Malaysia is that our exports are much more diversified than theirs, as we have a large commodity component.

@Rahmat 10:45

You're not the exception, and its going to get worse before it gets better. From the empirical data, high-income economies also have high price levels (i.e. everything gets more expensive). That's a problem I haven't see the government addressing yet.

@Mus 12:09

According to the published report, Q4 GDP is now higher than it was before the recession began. So we have grown - the problem is only some parts of the economy have felt the benefits.

@Richard Greycross 5:00
Thanks for dropping by. I've read the country report, and it makes interesting reading. Something everyone here should have a look at before commenting on the Malaysian economy (sorry bro Rocky if direct links are not allowed):


If I can comment, I have to agree with the Malaysian authorities rebuttal regarding exchange rate undervaluation. I've taken a stab at a reduced form model for MYR, and I find little evidence of it although I did find significant differences between my calculated REER indices and the IMF's. I think there's a problem with the weighting scheme the IMF is using - the US trade share with Malaysia has fallen significantly over the course of this decade, while China's has risen. The IMF weight for ASEAN is also far lower than the actual trade share. If the index isn't accurate, then no surprise if models based on it will be off too.


1. Exchange rates are relative prices not absolute ones. Don't get hung up on any particular level.

2. The reason why the USD is holding its value so well (and the SGD is continuously rising against MYR) are complex, but I'll be happy to try to explain if you don't mind a highly technical explanation.

3. By my assessment, BNM is only smoothing volatility, not targeting a level. The IMF country report I linked to above also has a statistical study on BNM intervention post-2005 (pg 21), with the same conclusion.

4. Exchange rate parity is a nice hypothesis, but there's little empirical evidence it holds. Using historical exchange rate levels as a basis for comparing economies across time is not a good idea.

Anonymous said...

such a boring malaysian circus..

It was a strange scene at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington on Wednesday morning. When the seminar on Governance & Rule of Law in Malaysia began, only one of the speakers came into the room, Nazri Abdul Aziz.

Attorney-General Gani Patail and former Chief Justice Abdul Hamid Mohamed were somehow nowhere to be seen.

And in good Malaysian fashion, the seminar started 10 minutes late.

The seminar's chairman, Ernest Bower, looked tired and nervous, saying that he had received a number of e-mails expressing concern that the seminar would not be balanced. He said that he wants a dialogue on important issues. Therefore he also has invited the opposition to speak at CSIS. He hopes they will accept.

Ernest Bower then shocked the audience of about 40 people by saying that the session was 'off the record'. The flyer announcing the seminar never said it was an off the record session.

It doesn't matter though. The session was so boring there is very little to report anyway.

Malaysian Ambassador to the US, Jamaluddin Jarjis a.k.a. JJ, spoke for two minutes. He just said that he is working very hard to improve relations with the US (whenever he happens to be in town, that is). He made no mention, though, whether the new US$150,000 Porsche he just bought is paid for by the Malaysian taxpayers or by him personally.

Nazri said that it was just a coincidence that he, Gani and Abdul Hamid happen to be in Washington at the same time. (Sure. If you believe that then I have half a bridge to Singapore to sell you.) He said he didn't know where the two missing persons were.

He then introduced the "four members of my delegation," all MPs. (Talk about wasting the taxpayers’ money!) Two of them were PKR turncoats, including the infamous Zahrin Mohamed Hashim.

In a tribute to Malaysia Today, Nazri held up an Internet printout and referred to Martin Jalleh's article, Malaysian Circus goes to Washington. He claimed that he had been planning the trip to Washington for nine months because he and the PM believe it is important to strengthen ties with the US.

Nazri then started his formal speech and spoke for 30 minutes. It was a very academic and therefore a very boring speech. There was no real substance to it and the audience quickly grew bored. Even JJ got so bored as he sat next to Nazri on the podium.

But what shocked the audience was to watch JJ's antics at such an "important meeting" at such a "prestigious think tank."

The whole while Nazri was speaking, JJ was sending and receiving messages on his Blackberry and mobile phone. He never turned off the ringer. When he tapped out a message, one could hear the "click, click, click" of the keys. He even called his aide up to the podium twice to have conversations. He also got up and left the room and then came back.

And here is a first for Washington.

Then, as Nazri was still speaking, JJ picked up the Washington Post and started to read it -- not once, but twice.

mahyuddin said...

Yo bro,
Something is wrong here. IF Malaysia is out of the Global Economic Crisis, then the whole world should listen to our Najib or his Ministers on how Malaysia do it, rite??!!!

Well, my dotter still complain the nasi lemak at her school still expensive.

Anonymous said...

Kelantan strikes back over KL’s oil ads


apsal BN tak nak siar kenyataan balas Kerajaan Negeri kelantan?



Anonymous said...

Plain simple, BN/UMNO is out to it their oppositions by denying them any possible financial gains. BN is thieve, robber, and conman all in one.

If you want your rights restored (be it oil royalty, citizen's rights, rights to reasonable infrastructure services, rights to a just justice system, rights to a clean governments - states and federal), you must take down the BN/UMNO federal government, to break their corrupt and high handed policies.

ONG said...

Salam Datuk,

Rasanya sekarang adalah masa yang terbaik untuk kerajaan memandang ke luar untuk meluaskan keupayaan ekonomi negara kita. Memandangkan ekonomi-ekonomi negara maju sedang goyah, M'sia sepatutnya mengambil peluang yang jarang ditemui ini untuk mengulang kembali kejayaan membentuk ekonomi seperti zaman Tun Mahathir dahulu.

Mari kita perhatikan industri automotif US yang hanya tunggu masa untuk rebah. Syarikat GM terpaksa memecahkan operasi mereka dan menjual anak-anak syarikat mereka dengan harga yang boleh dikatakan murah.. Sila rujuk link ini http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a89A2vcAkjuY&pos=3.

Kalau dahulu Tun Mahathir melihat Lotus dan MV Agusta sebagai pemangkin sector automotif negara, syarikat kenderaan seperti Hummer ini juga tidak kurang nilai sebagai penambah nilai untuk negara kita sekiranya diambil alih oleh Proton atau pun Naza.

Hummer mempunyai teknologi dan pasaran yang sangat luas diseluruh negara. Kekuatan syarikat ini sudah semestinya boleh dieksplotasi oleh syarikat automotif negara untuk masa yang akan datang. Peluang seperti ini amat jarang-jarang datang.

Harap Datuk boleh bawa perkara ini ke perhatian pimpinan negara.

Anonymous said...


Intresting comment from skilganon1066...


Haha that is the PKR forte and skills la or more precise Anwar.., UMNO just learned from them


anuar said...


now how about doing something about this. Tell the big guys its a waste hyping about numbers when your countryman is starving.




sick&tired said...

what a load of crap! bloody propaganda brought to you by the biggest ball licker! If its from Rocky, 100% cock story.

Anonymous said...

This year should be better especially if our asking India and China for more of their FDI to come here, should actualise.


Anonymous said...

i am kelantanese and a professional, with friends who are lawyers and academics. we have analysed the situation and concluded : kito cayo ku li. kito tau moideen belawok; and we all agree that umno is cheating the rakyat of kelantan, 95% malay, of their rights.

please explain, dpm, if kelantan were not part of malaysia, would petronas be entitled to a share of production revenues in the joint development area? if the answer is yes, then kelantan rakyat is not entitled but you are one big liar. if the answer is no, then do the right and decent thing and let the people of kelantan receive their share of petronas revenue through the government they elected. the proud kelantanese do not desire to be paid charity money through people whom they have rejected at the polls.

Anonymous said...

ooi orang Kelantan dan orang Malaysia, kamu boleh tengok macam mana UMNO boleh puta-belet undang2 kerana pasal duit, tamak and kuasa. Haram kalau UMNO ambil hak Kelantan and Terengganu. Kenapa masih nak sokong dan undi BN? Ajar sikit pada mereka bila nak undi nanti.

Anonymous said...

This DPM is the worst we have had. No class. Do not discriminate the poor folks as you ahve been doing over the last 20 years! This will be umno's waterloo!

Anonymous said...

As I said so many times, when Muhyiddin speaks, I have to cover my face. Embarrassment personified!
Lets see some of his statements:
"This is not political but the constitutional and legal way of whatever Act enacted by Parliament,”
"decision made by the government and party leadership."
"We have given explanations based on facts. "
"compassionate payments instead of oil royalties was in accordance with the law."
Unlike Ku Li's explanantion, every statement he made is hollow, void of any supporting evidence. Words like "whatever" shows he knows nothing, "facts" - what facts" "in accordance to law" what law?
Explain this simple fact, "The advertisement fails to point out that almost all the oil found in Malaysia is located more than three nautical miles offshore"

Anonymous said...

All arguments put forward by UMNO are weak. The other states are paid and by extension, Kelanatan should be paid, even if the law says otherwise because the law should not discriminate.

UMNO discriminate against Kelanatan and impoverish the malays in Kelantan, there is no doubt about that.

Wang Ehsan is wang kepala otak UMNO.

Then, there is the federal agreement. Has UMNO been keeping its part of the bargain? Definitely not, in the case of Penang, which has been discriminated upon since the time of Mahatir. That says why Penang is in such deplorable state because of the lack of development fund due to Penang by the federal government.

Anonymous said...

Please exlain the FACT of terminating the royalty payment to Trengannu when BN lost the state. Please then explain the fact of re-instating the Oil royalty payment to Trengannu after BN took back the state. All these, in accordance to the law. Whose law may I ask? Did the law say - No royalty to be paid to Non BN ruled state. Royalty only applicable to BN run state.

Such low class mentality! At least make an effort to be logical or sensible or both. Complet nonchalant, indifference and condesention of the worst kind. I guess we deserve what we voted for!

Anonymous said...

Dear Richard. M. Greycross
Regional Analyst for East Asia and Far East,International Monetary Fund.

You may be analytical and clinical. You are also an outsider.

What you failed to understand is that we Malaysian's have little confidence in our govt in telling us the truth. Time and again, the govt controls the information and play politics. It lacks transparency and accountability.

Anonymous said...

Ainor, you just got 'Punk-ed' by RPK !!


Adi R said...

Correct - I was looking at the Capital Outflow figure.
And most figures quoted would not have an affect on GDP figures.
From the reports I can see how the govt figures were derived and most seem to come from the implementation of the stimuli packages.
Overall one can't disagree - and it would seem figures were in positive territory by Q3.
I think the bigger concern is how Malaysia is going to change its economic model as inflation pressures will rise and without rise in wages - the public will not feel the real effects of recovery.
As said by another blogger - economics is an inexact science and statistics are meaningless to the average wage or non wage earner.

Anonymous said...

Berita malam nie kata ada 11,000 banduan asing yang menyebabkan penjara sesak. Celaka betul. Membazir duit kerajaan. Kalau perbelanjaan mereka RM3.00 seorang/hari, maka kita belanja RM33,000 sehari, RM990,000 sebulan. Itu belum lagi banduan-banduan tempatan. CELAKA betul. Baik mampus lagi baik.

Anonymous said...

a question for the old fart... why the Titanic?

just because you are living the titanic lie called PKR doesn't mean everyone will be sinking with you.

another thing is... you don't have to reply every time Rocky post something in his blog.

keep your pessimism to yourself... although it is obvious that you are just one lonely SOB who's got no real friends... and, it's of no wonder because wherever you go, you bring your dark clouds with you...

sheesh, what a loser!

p/s might I suggest the old fart, donplaypuks and nstman team up and share a blog... this way the blog might get more than 1 hit per day, at least... and we pray that the 3 of you will depress each other to the point of suicide.

"all the lonely people, where do they all come from"

Anonymous said...

Utk Brother Rahmat of Ampang..

Kalau ingin lebih megetahui kenapa yourlifestyle sebagai Middle Class Malay is being threatened tolong baca kat website ni mengenai neoliberalism www.futurefastforward.com bawah artikel debt dynamite dominoes

Keturunan Jebat

Bunnies said...

You and I know that this is not true.....

Anonymous said...

This feedback is for Mr. Greycross of IMF.

You work for an organization called by IMF that is back up by the biggest counterfeiting country in the world, America.

My question to you is, how does America intent to pay back the trillion of dollars of Treasury bills that has been sold?

As far as I am concern IMF have no moral right to tell other countries how to manage our economy because you are funded by the same country (America) that condemned us (Malaysia) for bailing our corporates and banks when we did that during the 1997/1998 currency crisis and is doing bloody hell the same thing what we did for their own crisis.

Just to share, one week before America invaded Iraq, I was in NZ and was condemned for being a Muslim and I retaliated back saying that America has no sovereign, legal or moral right to go into Iraq because it is none of their bloody business to be in Iraq. Here we are today....where is the weapon of mass destruction? All crap so that America can churn their economy based on military industry because America has nothing else of value to offer besides being morally bankrupt and right now financially too.

What say you?

Keturunan Jebat

Anonymous said...

Let's light up a cigar and be suckers!

PM gv goods news (con job) and then raise electrcity tariffs and toll. We can afford what! We so bloody well to do now that we have dig ourselves out from the abyss.



Andrew F said...

Malaysia has serious issues to ponder and resolve if it wants to move out of its current economic vicious circle.
Malaysia is falling behind in FDI as well as in Domestic Investment compared to most of its ASEAN neighbours. This can be rectified through some key institutional reform:
1. Improvement in efficiency and consolidation of its public services and economic delivery system. There are too many Ministries and agencies at State and Federal level that in the end actually discourage investment.
There has to be complete de-politicization of the Civil Service.
A good example is the Thai Civil Service that virtually operates independently of its executive. Despite Thailand's worse political intrigue than that of Malaysia - it managed far greater FDI and DDI as investors do not deal with politicians but with an independent public delivery system. I won't go on too much about Singapore - but anyone who has done business in Singapore knows the drill there.
2. Corruption.....Corruption....Corruption! Linked to point 1 Malaysia's ranking in this regard has worsened over the last 3 years. Too much wastage of funds and poor allocation of resources increases costs and encourages inefficiency.
Malaysia has shown a lack of political will to deal with this as too many 'big fish' walk away quite happily.
3. An educated, inventive and innovative workforce. This is so lacking it has become a serious economic issue. Your best brains have left the country and are not coming back. The education system locally is not filling them with the same skill sets. The country is still stuck in a low wage cycle.
From everything seen so far - nothing has been done to tackle this issue.

Anonymous said...

ainor sez:


Yep, you got that right. In there he was.


Now now... the Americans have something called First Amendment. Look it up.

- AMsianonNationalMall

Anak Permatang Pauh said...

skilganon1066 said...

Oh, the Little Red Dot also had been going thru a recession? I thought with meritocracy, transparency, corruption-free, the Little Red Dot should be trouble-free...KAH KAH KAH...KAHAK!

Anonymous said...


No, I don't think he was there. But there are many people who would supply the info (most of them are lies, actually) to him (RPK) for him to post in his blog as if he was present at that place. These people who provide him the pointers for him to write, because they themselve are scared that their IPs can be traced and tracked. So, the `safest' way is to use RPK since this guy would post anything anyway.

My advice is just ignore him. Even PAS followers who once seem to believe whatever he posted, now have deserted his portal. Only a few blind and brain-dead followers of PR still get gratification from all his lies.

Anonymous said...

You must be a stupid (nothing new) malakie donkie inbreed. They were in US of A. What kind of authority or power do nazri and jj have to arrest rpk even if he was there?
"You are off tangent"!! With your malakie brain and bodohland education, you will always be off, bodoh!!!

warrior 123

Loken PaL-aNi-SaM-y said...

The imf analyst reply is interesting. I think the political turmoil is good for Malaysia, in the long term. A strong 2 party system is finally emerging.

Even if PKR wins, BN can make a strong comeback, all cleaned up!!....lol

donplaypuks® said...


Really? M2day doesn't have a bigger readership than NST and Dr.M? And what exactly is your opinion on M2days hits or loss of, based on? There's no stats counter at M2day. So, where are you shooting from? Heh, heh, heh!

And IF RPK is lying and losing support what are you worried about, for the truth shall prevail in M'sia, surely?

We are all of 1 race, the Human Race

Anonymous said...

dpp we are worried when someone who claims to fight for justice is actually someone who RAN away to hide

dare not face the music (whatever genre), most people want to know if he has the guts to face trial

see, for someone who claims loudly to be fearless in demanding transparency and truth, he appears to be chicken-hearted


Anonymous said...

how can we be having a better 4th quarter whence 80% of the companies listed in Bursa Saham Malaysia is having one of their worst performance out of the 4 quarters in a year ?

hishamh said...

QoQ seasonally adjusted government spending fell in 4Q2009, so I think fiscal stimulus was counterbalanced by spending cuts elsewhere (no civil service bonus remember).

Hummers have had no market since oil prices broke above USD30 per barrel.

@Keturunan Jebat
The IMF issued a mea culpa in 2002 (IIRC) on the issue of Malaysia's policies in 1998 - of course you had to have been paying very close attention to what they were saying to figure that one out. But they've been leaning away from free market fundamentalism and cookie-cutter policies for some time now (as has the World Bank).

@anon 12:41
As I said before, I can't find a statistically solid relationship between Malaysia's stock market and the economy. Which means that you might as well treat them as largely independent of each other.

Anonymous said...

It is indeed gratifying that my comment drew a variety responses which were both constructive and sarcastic in nature. Before I proceed further, it would behove on me to aver that my role here is merely to clarify certain misconceptions arising from erroneous perceptions. I would also avoid delving into the polemics originating from the bitter partisanship currently gripping the local political scene.

1. Reporting integrity and the transparent provision of data is an important pre-requisite that will ensure a country’s continued viability as an investment destination. As far as IMF is concerned, the Malaysian authorities have been beyond reproach on this score.. It might be that domestic political polemics and affiliations might colour personal or collective interpretations of information put out for public consumption. However, it would inimical to a nation’s international financial reputation to provide fudged data as capital, being an ideologically neutral construct, would only seek pastures wherein return can be maximised at minimal costs. Malaysia’s international standing ( as is the case of many others) as an investment destination has been predicated on this principle and I don’t see any reason for the government to compromise its credibility and sacrifice its reputation amongst the international financial community merely for self-destructive short-term gains that will have irreparable long term repurcussions.

2.Contrary to popular perception, Malaysia’s recent eclipse as a preferred FDI choice is due to factors totally unrelated to declines in international indices of perception. Rather, informal feedback gleaned from the main players reveal that 2 factors played a major role in the current outflow. Firstly, the global credit crunch and systemic shock it initially engendered kindled the fears of many principals who responded by repatriating their money back home to repair damaged balance sheets, deleverage or shore up capital adequacy provisions, etc and Malaysia was not spared in this regard. In fact, country specific factors pertaining to fiscal or monetary policies had minimal impact in stanching outflows as this paper by my colleagues attests: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2009/wp09133.pdf

Secondly and more pertinently, informal discussions many principals frankly expressed that worsening disequilibrium in the local political sphere contributed significantly to their decision to redirect their investments home or elsewhere. In this regard, the notion that a two-party system is good for economic well-being is highly debatable given negative effects observable elsewhere. In addition, the notion that contemporary stakeholders, especially the opposition in the Malaysian political process, are “clean” - is highly questionable, given this paper published by my colleagues and also available at the IMF portal: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=18922.0 wherein the full text is informative in more ways than one.

I should qualify my observation that while the IMF is all for the development of democracy, free markets etc, recent history suggest that an evolutionary approach is more effective especially in societies where civil society norms are currently wholly inadequate for the institutionalisation and nurturing of democratic norms.

Richard M.Greycross
Regional Analyst for South East Asia and the Far East
International Monetary Fund

Anonymous said...

Here,. I will address a few issues raised by the other commentators.

@hishamh : While our models may have certain shortcomings, they are sufficiently robust enough to generate approximate scenarios as can be seen from our recent prognosis of the Malaysian and world economies (including growth figures). Nevertheless, we welcome positive feedback that will further enhance the reliability of our existing frameworks. I wholly second your other observation and am just curious you did not raise China in support of your currency arguments.

@keturunan Jebat: Yes, I agree Dr Mahathi handled the situation well compared to Anwar Ibrahim. I am not privy to what transpired in 1997/98 as I joined the IMF in 2004. Nevertheless, the same period also witnessed an ideological battle of sorts between the ideologue Camdessus and the maverick, Stiglitz. It is interesting that what Dr Mahathir ( a Keynesian prescription) did was eventually seconded by luminaries like Krugman and later Stiglitz . I am of the personal view that had we not been rigid and ideological in our approach, we would have gained more valuable insights into the global financial architecture and probably prevented the Crunch of 2008. While we now understand the intricacies of local socio-economic conditions require that we do not adopt a “one fit-for all” policy, we caution the US from pursuing its current policy (despite its success in avoiding a catastrophe) of quantitative easing and bailouts as it is essentially propping up the culprits while the extant of the crisis (terminally damaged balance sheets) remains obscured , an eerie recapitulation of 90s Japan’s mistake. Dr M bailed out viable companies; Obama bails out the financially ischemic and therein lies the rub, I suppose.

Finally, this my last comment on the matter and wish to thank the blogmaster Mr Rocky Bru .

Richard M.Greycross
Regional Analyst for South East Asia and the Far East
International Monetary Fund

hishamh said...


I'm not questioning the IMF's methodologies or models - I have and continue to learn a great deal through the IMF's openness and willingness to put your research and credibility out there for public scrutiny. But data can always be improved, so thanks for listening.

With reference to China, the average Malaysian tends to measure the "value" of the MYR first against the USD, then the SGD.

While China's purchases of US treasuries is a strong source of USD support over the past few years, the decline in the MYRSGD crossrate predates China's international trade emergence by over a decade (in fact, it began in 1987).

MYR-SGD, IMHO, really needs to be viewed through the lens of a Balassa-Samuelson framework (SG began following a services based strategy much earlier than we did), as well as a demographic one (demographic dividend as well as faster population aging in SG relative to MY). There was also an exchange rate/monetary policy change at BNM that coincided with the beginning of the decline.

China doesn't factor into this equation until fairly recently, and even then only indirectly.

Anonymous said...

hahahahahaha........... it was fun to watch the pigarsefucking sowcuntlicking chingkie pariah spore cocksuckler Skillganon aka Skillmoron being pwned by the likes of hishamh. But then I knew all along that this worthless, moronic, condescending Spore cocksuckler was gonna get pwned real bad given his zilch knowledge of all things economics. Pathetic shitheaded Chingkie whose only raison d’etre in these parts was to crow of Spore’s achievements and spread the lie it was due to chingkie élan when we know better how the gwailohs played the pivotal role in making Spore what it is today NOT some farthog, arsegrub munching Hairy Lee. What racist bigot and stupid fellatist, Skilly was!!!wasted sperm of a runaway Pendatang pig. .

Hishamh, pointless to engage a skullhead like skilmoron as IT is incapable of understanding anything let alone thoughtful exchange. Sooner or later, IT will accuse you of cut n pastelah, engaging in sophistrylah and all the other cheapskate baggage only a chingkie pig will trundle out when confronted by intelligent sons of soil like us, the Melayu bermaruah. The pendatang shithead is nothing more than a stupid interloper with a travelling midget shitswamped brain to befit his nomadic nature and his barbaric lifestyle when combined with defective whore genes will yield us chingkie fuckheads and unwashed arsescums like Skilmoron et al.

Let IT gag on this Dick as this sums up IT succintly:

"Hence to sound alarmist based on subjective observations and minimalist data is a puerile exercise and belies a lack of knowledge as to the intricacies and complexities of fiscal and monetary........" (Greycross).

Now pick a fight with the gwailoh or hishamh and show us whether if you have the intellectual nous for abtruse issues.Pigshit chingkieboy. But you cunt and you wont as u have no nous but are more of moose on the loose in search of a noose..hahahaha!.

My instant solution to ouflow: expropriate all local chingkie ILLGOTTEN wealth and leave them to scrounge around like pigs in the same vein their penniless, shirtless scum ancestors did when they first arrived like tongkang rats to ransack OUR beloved Tanah Melayu in cahoots with the White Pig.Wsated Chingkie sperm!!!

p/s : IT refers to its pig self for no honourable human would diss a genial host who had given him generously from his (the indigenous host’s) largesse.

Warrior 231

Anonymous said...

Hey Malakie donkie, self professed soldier turned farmer, built like a pugilist, but actually a skinny inbreedie, resultie of unholie liasonie betwie mumie and grankie.
Another round of familial screwing huh! Always screwing your mumie and thats the bravest thing you skinny inbreed dare to do. Put you money where your mouth is lah. Go and expropriate the chinkie money, start another may 13 to cleanse bodohland off chinkies. you hee haw , hee haw, hee haw, hiding behind the internet, pretending to be built like a pugilist, and yet you have no fucking guts to do what you say. you useless malakie donkies dominate the bodohland gomen and with all your so called arfirmitive polices(40years), you still lack behind the chinkie economically, intellectually. You inbreed still pretend to be "intelligent sons of soil like us, the Melayu bermaruah" hahahha.
Do something lah , idiot, do not just screw your mumie and produce more inbreed.

warrior 123

Anonymous said...

Skilmoron should start doing house cleaning for Hishamh and Richard by licking their toilet bowl squicking clean for its dream to become a cyber economic expert..

All those self-potray & self-proclaim economic expert stunt like what it did all this while really make this pigbrain look worst that any pigshit pariah..but it always OK for it, babi mana ada maruah..so, expect it to come back again recycle eating its own shit stuff just like what pig do..

Skilmoron a stupid chingkie pig?? Yes IT is..see the result, proven!

:D muhahahaha
-anti hindraf & ultra chingkies-

Anonymous said...


warrior 123

A classic example of Chingkie imbecility. The pig cannot even spell right, coining words like some whore piss drunk arsewhore.

To top it, he shits the sum of his vernacular education in apiece littered with grammatical errors, interspersed with grunting from a constipated donkey. As I said elsewhere, whoregirls will only produce, brain damaged syphilis infested scumbags like this one whose only raison d' etre in life is to spew badly constructed and misspelt shit for other like-minded pigs to savour.

The final icing is to counterfeit my moniker and strut around like a brain dead but arsehungry moron. What a chingkie moron!!

Chingkie boy, exproporiation is coming and soon an army knife will be gliding across your fucking throat.So fellate for all you want and dont forget to lick arses for good measure.

Warrior 231

Anonymous said...


warrior 123'

My answer for you, scumbag w123;

Do something lah, idiot, do not screw up my Tanah Melayu, go back to your Motherland, Fatherland or Chinkieland and breed your pig DNA so-called human species....whatever..

- JohnSleepyButAwakenDoe