

Don't fear China reprisals, US think-tank says

Andrew Tillett
Andrew TillettPolitical Correspondent

Australia should not be afraid to stand up to Beijing because China's own economic reliance on Australian minerals and resources limits its ability to retaliate, a former top US defence official says.

Dr Thomas Mahnken and his colleague Toshi Yoshihara are also urging the Morrison government to take a regional leadership role by pushing back against China when necessary to set an example to countries that may lack strength to resist Chinese coercion.

Thomas Mahnken and Toshi Yoshihara say countries like Australia need to push back against China's "political warfare" campaign. Alex Ellinghausen

Amid fresh tensions in the relationship between Canberra and Beijing over the arrest of Australian writer Yang Hengjun on spying charges, Dr Mahnken rejected arguments by sections of the business community that Australian trade was vulnerable if China was overly provoked.

"I think that dependency goes both ways," said Dr Mahnken, a former deputy assistant secretary for defence in George W Bush's administration.

"Australia derives economic benefit from its relations with China. China is also highly dependent on Australia.


"I think it would be too bad if Australians underestimated just how much leverage Australia has over the Chinese economy and Chinese decision making."

While there was speculation that recent hold ups of exports of wine and coal at the border were a case of China "punishing" Australia, Dr Mahnken argued the muted economic impact proved his point.

"I'd ask the question, what adverse consequences has Australia faced since freezing Huawei out of 5G networks? Australia took a bold and well-needed measure to protect the security of its information networks and it hasn't been under embargo," he said.

Dr Yoshihara, a former lecturer at the prestigious US Naval War College, said policymakers had for too long fallen for "false narratives" that the US and the West were too dependent on China and it was too risky to confront Beijing.

Risk tolerance

"It turns out that when we push back, not just economically but on Taiwan, we have also learned that the Chinese too are risk averse," he said.

"We have to push back in order to understand the degree of their risk tolerance because if we continue to fall for these false narratives, the end state would be inaction on our part."

Dr Mahnken and Dr Yoshihara are president and a senior fellow respectively of US think tank the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, and are in Australia for meetings with MPs and senior security officials, particularly on China's embrace of "political warfare", such as cyber operations, intellectual property theft, interference in other countries' governments and influence of Chinese diasporas.


Dr Mahnken said more and more countries had become concerned about China's behaviour and were looking for leadership.

"US efforts, Australian efforts, Japanese efforts are really key to providing the ability for countries to push back," he said.

Dr Yoshihara said the Trump administration had given a lead to other countries by doing things once considered unthinkable, such as unleashing the trade war.

"The trade war really isn't about just reducing the trade deficit, it is as much about  taking away a source of long-term Chinese power. It's designed in some ways to slow down China's momentum," he said.

"One of the things we collectively need to recognise, we are in a long-term peace competition and we're really in the opening moves, frankly."

The pair's  comments coincide with Australia's ambassadors and high commissioners gathering in Canberra for the annual global heads of mission meeting on Tuesday, where China was a major theme.

Opposition foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong used her speech to call on the government to allow agencies to brief MPs more regularly on China so they could better understand points of convergence and difference.

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Andrew Tillett

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