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If Trump Fires Mueller, Will He Reap the Whirlwind?

A constitutional crisis or just another Teflon Don moment? Ten political pundits weigh in.

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Donald Trump sure seems ready to fire special counsel Robert Mueller—even if White House lawyers insists it’s the furthest thing from his mind. “The Mueller probe should never have been started in that there was no collusion and there was no crime,” Trump tweeted on Saturday. “It was based on fraudulent activities and a Fake Dossier paid for by Crooked Hillary and the DNC, and improperly used in FISA COURT for surveillance of my campaign. WITCH HUNT!” A day later: “Why does the Mueller team have 13 hardened Democrats, some big Crooked Hillary supporters, and Zero Republicans? Another Dem recently added ... does anyone think this is fair? And yet, there is NO COLLUSION!”

Republicans took to the Sunday shows apparently concerned about where that tweetstorm could be headed. “I mean, talking to my colleagues all along it was, you know, once he goes after Mueller, then we'll take action,” Sen. Jeff Flake said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” Sen. Lindsey Graham said Trump firing Mueller would “be the beginning of the end of his presidency.”

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But would he really do it? And what political consequences would he face if he did? We rounded up a handful of political experts to answer that question, and they’re just as confused as we are. Republicans and Democrats, Trump friend and Trump foe alike all agree, more or less, that firing Mueller should be a red line—but they’re not so sure it would be. Here’s what they told us:


‘Republicans will make some initial noise, but ultimately, do nothing.’
Ana Navarro is a Republican strategist and commentator.

Republicans have become the boys that cried wolf. Time and time again they have remained in complicit silence as Trump attacks American institutions, cyberbullies the special counsel and law enforcement and one by one has fired the people standing in between him and Mueller.

The warnings on Sunday against such a move, from congressional Republicans including House Speaker Paul Ryan and Sen. Jeff Flake, ring hollow because the same congressional Republicans haven’t acted on legislation that might actually protect the American people from obstruction of justice by their own president. These lawmakers would be a lot better off protecting the country and themselves from such an action by passing the Graham-Booker legislation, which would check the executive branch’s ability to remove a special counsel and give an added layer of protection to a possible politically motivated, self-interested firing of Mueller.

But Congress hasn’t acted on it. Even the bill’s co-author, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, said in January that while he would “be glad to pass it right now,” he also didn’t think it was necessary. This inaction tells us all we need to know about what the GOP will do if Trump fires Mueller—make some initial noise, but ultimately, do nothing.

‘A House more willing to impeach, but a Senate less willing to convict.’
Bill Scher is a contributing editor to POLITICO Magazine, and co-host of the Bloggingheads.tv show “The DMZ.”

There’s little reason to believe Republicans would abandon Trump if Mueller was fired. Trump and his allies have been disparaging the investigation as a political witch hunt from the start, which has successfully sullied Mueller’s reputation among Republican base voters. In both the POLITICO/Morning Consult and the USA Today/Suffolk University poll, a strong plurality of Republicans distrust and disapprove of Mueller. These base voters won’t flinch if Trump whacks Mueller, but they would punish any Republican officeholder open to impeachment and conviction.

Firing Mueller would also supercharge the Democratic base; Democratic voters would not only be fired up for the election, they would be fired up for impeachment. But that’s not all bad news for Trump: Several Democratic congresspeople up for reelection represent states and districts Trump won, including 10 senators and nine House members (including newly elected Conor Lamb). They and some other Democrats don’t want the midterms to be a referendum on impeachment; they want to emphasize pocketbook issues. But impeachment talk could crowd everything else out. Perhaps that wouldn’t stop a “Blue Wave” giving Democrats the House, but it could hamper the already uphill battle for Democrats to claim the Senate.

The net result could be a House more willing to impeach, but a Senate less willing to convict.

‘I haven’t seen Republicans in Congress, as a whole, standing up to the president.’
Katie Packer Beeson is a commentator and the founder of Burning Glass Consulting. She has managed several campaigns, from state legislative to presidential, and was deputy campaign manager for the Mitt Romney campaign in 2012.

If Trump fires Mueller, I think most reasonable people would consider it to be obstruction of justice. And I hope that Republican leaders and members of Congress would see that as a red line and get serious about their own investigation.

That said, I haven’t seen Republicans in Congress, as a whole, standing up to the president and his bullying, self-interested behavior in a way that gives him any pause. So I would be pleasantly surprised to see that happen.

If Congress abdicates its role in our system of checks and balances and acts only with partisan interest, then we may as well kiss our Constitution goodbye. I hope we’re not there yet, but if Trump does fire Mueller, the political aftermath might tell us if we are.

‘Another FBI firing would make an obstruction of justice case more clear-cut than it was in Watergate.’
Douglas Schoen is a political analyst and former adviser to President Bill Clinton.

Firing Mueller would almost certainly lead to the impeachment of President Trump and a trial in the Senate where the chance of removal from office would be very real, because another FBI firing would make an obstruction of justice case more clear-cut than it was in Watergate.

The firing of Mueller would cross a red line for legislators of both parties, and I believe the consequences would be even direr than they were for former President Nixon when he fired special prosecutor Archibald Cox in October 1973, which prompted the resignations of the attorney general and deputy attorney general. A week after those resignations, a plurality of Americans favored impeachment, and soon afterward, a number of impeachment resolutions were introduced in Congress.

It would mean a 1974-style blow in the 2018 midterm elections for the Republicans, and it would severely weaken President Trump’s 2020 campaign, should he somehow stay in office until then.

‘I’m sure there are plenty of historians around the president who will remind him of the consequences.’
Frank Luntz is a Republican pollster.

We saw what firing the special prosecutor and the attorney general did to Richard Nixon. I’m sure there are plenty of historians around the president who will remind him of the consequences.

‘The tidal wave of leaks from the FBI and intelligence community would be astounding.’
Rick Wilson is a GOP operative.

It’s not a matter of if, but when, Trump fires Mueller, triggers the constitutional crisis that stains his presidential legacy forever and brings down the Republican majority.

Here’s what would happen immediately: nothing. The GOP would go into “Furrowed Brows and Deep Concern” mode, and pretend it didn’t happen. Republicans fear Trump’s tweets, Fox News and his base more than they revere the oath they swore to uphold the Constitution. I’ve said this before, and the joke is less of a joke and more of a caution at this point, but Trump could kill and eat a live baby on the South Lawn of the White House and the GOP caucus would shrug and say, “Well, he’s new at this. He’s not a traditional politician.”

I think it would almost certainly make the 2018 election a referendum on the GOP’s support of Trump. We’d see a replay of the “scandal turnover” elections where one party was marked by political corruption and blown out of office.

In 1973, Republicans were screaming about fake news and witch hunts. In 1974, many of those same people were looking for jobs: The Republicans lost 48 House and eight Senate seats that year, and Democrats made large gains in state legislatures. Twenty years later, in 1994, Democrats lost in a landslide in midterm races dominated by the issue of corruption. The GOP took that ride in 2006 in the wake of the Mark Foley congressional page scandal and the Jack Abramoff Indian lobbying scandal.

What happens after the firing? Mueller is smart, and I presume he has a lot of the process set to continue on autopilot in the event that he gets taken off of it himself unexpectedly. Most of the FBI’s work will continue regardless of whom the president fires.

Oh, and one thing Trump might not be anticipating as he considers the possibility of firing Mueller: The tidal wave of leaks from the FBI and intelligence community would be astounding.

‘It will be a lot like 1974—even without a presidential resignation.’
Michael Kazin is the editor of Dissent.

Since taking office, Trump’s repeated attacks on anyone who alleges that the Russians may have helped him win the presidency—or even that they tried—have failed to dent his popularity among the large majority of Americans who voted for him. And hardly any Republican politicians (and no Fox hosts) have broken with him over his charges.

Why would this change if he fired Mueller? Unless the special counsel presents unimpeachable evidence of collusion, which seems doubtful, his firing may actually fire up Trump’s core voters more than it alienates them. Most already think he is being hounded unfairly and like it when he fights back.

On the other hand, the controversy over the firing (depending when it occurs) will likely dominate politics until the midterm elections and make it impossible to pass any legislation of significance in the Senate if not the House. And because of it, Republicans will lose the House and quite a few governorships in the fall. It will be a lot like 1974—even without a presidential resignation.

‘All of this would only hurt GOP chances in the midterms.’

If Trump fired Mueller, vindication from the charges of Russian collusion in the court of public opinion would be almost inconceivable regardless of the truth. His opponents would cry obstruction, corruption and cover-up while doing everything they could to paint those aligned with Trump as accomplices. Headlines, which could otherwise reflect the positive results of the Trump agenda, would be replaced with a sensationalized focus on the Russia investigation.

All of this would only hurt GOP chances in the midterms. Those who did survive would be too bruised or bitter to come to Trump’s defense after 2018.

Trump would do himself, the GOP and the country more of a favor by keeping Mueller but setting a reasonable time limit for the investigation to be completed.

‘We are already in a constitutional crisis.’
Sophia Nelson is author of E Pluribus One: Reclaiming Our Founders’ Vision for a United America.

We are already in a constitutional crisis. The red line was crossed long ago.

If Trump fires Mueller, Congress will have no choice but to act and start impeachment proceedings. The president of the United States does not have unlimited power. We have a system of checks and balances that have worked for over 240 years. I hope that the Republican majority understands that it and it alone is the only thing that stands between “we the people” and tyranny.

‘Firing Mueller should come with serious consequences.’

All these attacks on special counsel Mueller are leading to something. Firing Mueller before this investigation is over should come with serious consequences.

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