Northern Tier Energy (NTI) 4Q12 Distribution Estimate

The new class of variable rate MLPs that contain refining assets are having an excellent run of things since their IPOs. Their distributions are entirely dependent upon their effective crack spreads for the quarter so trying to put together a solid estimate is difficult.

Difficult shouldn’t stop anyone from trying, so below please find my attempt for Northern Tier Energy but keep in mind that the margin of error is rather substantial (ok really  huge) and all the inputs used are just “estimates.” Some of the inputs are based on the guidance the company provided in late December and some are based on U.S. Energy Information Administration data.

The lowest estimate of $1.29 (shown in the footnote) feels like it is the safer more reasonable estimate and would still be an excellent performance for the quarter. The LOW estimate in the table of $1.53 is based on a slightly different method for estimating the hedging impact. The HIGH estimate of $2.11 is the moonshot number that might make the market down right ecstatic. Their actual crack spread is the key driver and will be the big wild card until they report their numbers, here’s the analysis:

NTI 4Q12 Dist Estimate

Disclosure: Long NTI, Short NTI Put options, Long NTI call options

About Philip Trinder


3 Responses to Northern Tier Energy (NTI) 4Q12 Distribution Estimate

  1. John Slice says:

    The combo is buying calls and selling puts (on the same strike). Usually thats done against selling stock. If you buy stock, sell calls, and buy puts, thats called the conversion. Its delta neutral, and its a good way to bet on a dividend being higher than the options imply.

  2. John,

    Thanks for reading and commenting. I think if by Combo you mean Covered Combo (long stock/units, short calls, short puts) that doesn’t describe my positions. I’m long NTI units, short NTI Puts and long NTI Calls. It’s actually a variety of option positions I’ve put on over time, including In the Money Puts I started selling back in August of last year (that are now Out of the Money).


  3. John Slice says:

    Why would you be long both the stock and the combo? If the implied dividend in the options was too low you should have just done the combo, and if too high then only buy the stock. The reversal/conversion on the March 30 line was only -.80, so converting would have been a big win.

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