PM handover to Costello worries voters

PM handover to Costello worries voters

The leadership issue is set to hurt the Federal Government in the coming election, with a new Herald Poll finding almost half of all voters believe John Howard will not serve his full term if re-elected and have not yet warmed to Peter Costello.

The poll reveals that 47 per cent of voters believe the Prime Minister will retire during the next term and that 41 per cent would be less likely to vote for the Coalition at the election late this year if they thought that Mr Costello, as is widely expected, would be his successor.

This "anti-Costello" effect includes more than one in five current Coalition supporters - although 36 per cent of Greens supporters say they would be more inclined to vote for the Coalition if Mr Costello was certain to take over after the election.


Mr Howard warned a partyroom meeting that the Coalition faced "the fight of its life" and that the odds were against it winning the coming election - after the Herald Poll published yesterday showed Labor had a two-party-preferred vote of 56 per cent to 44 per cent.

The Prime Minister also appeared to end speculation of an August election, hinting instead that it would be held later rather than earlier, after the poll revealed a sudden drop of 3 percentage points in the Coalition's primary vote.

He also acknowledged for the first time that Iraq was an electoral negative for the Coalition and that the connection with the United States could be dragging down Australia. The Herald Poll showed a 12 percentage point increase in voters who believe the war in Iraq was not justified.

One backbencher quoted Mr Howard saying: "The images coming out of Iraq are a negative. Let's face it, they reflect on the United States, to a lesser extent on the United Kingdom and because we are part of the Coalition, on us."

Iraqi police believe Australia's mission in Baghdad was the target of a car bomb attack that rocked a nearby hotel yesterday. Mr Howard said it was unclear if it as a target, but this was "obviously a concern" and that it "drives home the point that this is very dangerous and it's likely that there will be increased attempts in the week ahead, in the lead-up to the transfer of power . . . to kill and injure and maim in order to stop a transition to a peaceful, democratic Iraq."

Another backbencher said after yesterday's meeting, "Iraq is hurting us more than we would like."

But Mr Howard told the party meeting and Parliament that the Government had no intention of changing its position on Iraq.

"We did not enter the coalition [of the willing] on the basis of opinion polls last year and we have absolutely no intention on the basis of opinion polls of altering our position at the present time," he said.

A number of MPs at the party meeting offered suggestions for turning around the Coalition's fortunes, including calling for a greater emphasis on the Government's "vision", better selling of the budget's advantages for voters and targeting of specific groups such as self-funded retirees.

Mr Howard promised them he would have more to say about Australia's long-term future. He asked his MPs to assess everything they do and say in the light of the difficulty of winning the election.

And he urged them to come forward with any problems any of their colleagues might have so they could be dealt with as soon as possible. This was interpreted by those at the meeting as a reference to the damage to the Government by MPs' travel scandals.

In another embarrassment, Darwin Country Liberal David Tollner yesterday denied reports that he had slapped a fellow MP and contravened safety rules while on a flight to Canberra on Sunday but apologised to Parliament for his behaviour.

At Labor's caucus meeting yesterday, the Opposition Leader, Mark Latham, warned against complacency after the Herald Poll results.

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