



As ABC News notes, experts says that Japan has a long history of nuclear cover-ups.

The New York Times points out:



BBC reports (scroll down on left side):


Indeed, Goto said:





And Haarertz notes:


How Bad?

How bad is Japan’s nuclear crisis?

It’s hard to tell.

There are currently 3 Japanese nuclear reactors experiencing meltdown (and all 3 have exploded), and at least 3 more are in trouble.

The “Hail Mary” efforts to use seawater to cool the reactors has failed.

And even the Japanese government is now talking about damage to core containment structures. As MSN notes:


“But we have not recorded any sudden jump in radiation indicators,” Edano said without elaborating.

If confirmed, it will be the first direct damage to the reactor since a massive earthquake and tsunami battered Japan’s northeast coast on Friday, knocking out nuclear plants in Fukushima, north of Tokyo.

Kyodo News is reporting higher radiation levels North of Tokyo after the blast at reactor number 2.

In addition, the Christian Science Monitor notes that peculiar design of the Fukushima reactors may mean that spent fuel rods release far more radiation than the reactors themselves:





“The inventory numbers I’ve seen for the spent-fuel pool [that was losing coolant] is well below capacity,” said Edwin Lyman, a physicist with UCS, which describes itself as neither pro- nor anti-nuclear power, but which says nuclear safeguards today are not adequate. “That could limit the damage.”

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory is forecasting a magnitude 8.0 aftershock, which could completely destroy the damaged reactors at the Fukushima facility:

(Aerial view after Fukushima numbers 1 and 3 exploded; click for larger image.)

And the limited radiation readings which are available are rather worrisome.

The Jet Stream

The jet stream passes right over Japan on its way to the West coast of the United States.

As I noted Saturday:

The jet stream passes right over Japan. The jet stream was noticed in the 1920’s by a Japanese meteorologist near Mount Fuji, and the Japanese launched balloon bombs into the jetstream to attack America during WWII.

If a meltdown caused radioactivity to be thrown high enough, or if the radioactivity got blown by surface winds up into the jet stream, it could spread widely.

Here’s how the jet stream looks today:

Here is an artist’s impression of how the jet stream could spread radiation in the future:

And here’s a forecast for the next couple of days.

Accuweather notes the following times for radiation – in a worst-case scenario – to reach the West Coast:


Anchorage 3,457 7
Honolulu 3,847 8
Seattle 4,792 10
Los Angeles 5,477 11

But Accuweather meterologists argue that the winds will likely shift in different directions on a frequent basis, making it less likely that the radiation would be blown all of the way to the U.S.

As Haarertz notes:

Hebrew University Professor Menachem Luria, an expert on air quality and poisoning, told Channel 2 on Saturday …. “Once there is an uncontrollable heating up, the nuclear fuel undergoes a metamorphosis into the gaseous phase. Since we are talking about metals and solid items, they turn into particles that are capable of traveling great distances. They can wander thousands of kilometers.”

If these gases are indeed emitted into the atmosphere in large quantities, the wind regime could carry them all the way to China, South Korea, and eastern Russia, or in the other direction, toward Hawaii and the west coast of the United States. The likelihood of this happening, though, is not high.

As CNN Meterologist Ivan Cabrera says:

If radioactive material gets into the jet stream then… we share that with the world.


However, Cabrera points out that the Jet Stream is at 30,000-50,000 feet in altitude. 30,000 feet is 5.7 miles up. So that’s a long way up above the Japanese nuclear reactors, which are essentially at sea level.

Unless the radiation from the Japanese nuclear power plants is carried aloft that high, it will probably not make it into the jet stream.

So far, there is no indication of any kind that radiation has been carried into the jet stream. However, a U.S. aircraft carrier around 100 miles from the nuclear power plants have been exposed to radiation. 100 miles is obviously greater than 5.7 miles, but that is horizontal distance, and does not necessarily mean that radiation has risen high into the air. Obviously, if the wind is blowing off-shore at ground level, then that will move the radiation more or less horizontally. That is very different from blowing the radiation upwards.

As all of the experts agree, if a truly huge meltdown occurs, then the odds of radiation reaching the jet stream increase dramatically.

As national security expert Joe Cirincione told Fox News’ Chris Wallace:


But a more difficult question is whether low-level radioactive release spread over many weeks or months could spread into the jet stream and then the Western United States.

As the New York Times notes:


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