Science —

Congratulations, America. Here were some of your dumbest hurricane ideas

Liars, rubberneckers, 10-day track sharers, and Ann Coulter—the worst of Irma.

Coast Guard and Air Force personnel remove supplies and gear from an Air Force HC-130 aircraft in Opalocka, Florida, on September 9. They risk their lives to save yours.

I've spent the better part of the last month forecasting and writing about hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and between my work for Ars and a Houston-based forecasting site, I have probably written about 40,000 words on weather. So I have thought a lot about these storms. I have read a lot about them. And I despair for some of my fellow humans.

Hurricanes are rightly called natural disasters. Essentially, they are the planet's way of transferring heat from the tropics toward the polar regions of the planet. Unfortunately, human nature (and the behavior of some humans in particular) makes these disasters worse.

During a hurricane, residents in the projected path of the storm feel incredibly vulnerable. And why not? A supermassive, unpredictable tropical system is coming to take their home and their lives. Potential hurricane victims are hungry for information. (Where is the storm going?) They have questions. (Should I evacuate?) Unfortunately, although there are few certainties at these times, bad actors are ready to fill the vacuum with dumb ideas and actions.

“Hurricanes are fake news” guy

Rush Limbaugh deservedly took a lot of heat for his comments on Hurricane Irma last week when he essentially accused the media of hyping up the storm as "fake news." That's not to say the conservative talk host was entirely wrong. He was correct that it is in the media's interest to sell hurricanes as huge, whopping threats (be honest, do you watch The Weather Channel at any other time than during a tropical cyclone landfall?). But "the media" doesn't do this because of some global warming conspiracy theory, Rush; they do it for ratings and clicks.

At other times during his Irma rant, Limbaugh was absolutely full of gibberish. For example, he actually said this:

I've lived here since 1997, and I have developed a system that I trust; my own analysis of the data. And I'm not a meteorologist. I'm not gonna tell you what mine is because I don't want to be misinterpreted as giving you a forecast. Well, I'm tempted to, though, because I've been exactly right since last Friday.

Yes, you've got a system all right. Meanwhile, the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center put their forecasts out for the world to see, every six hours, and then they meticulously grade them after hurricane season. This is how science is done, and hurricane forecasting improves. Instead of this, however, Limbaugh chooses to breed further distrust of science, official sources, and "experts." By the way, after mocking the severity of Irma, Limbaugh evacuated from West Palm Beach, Florida this weekend.

“Hurricane rubbernecker” guy

One of my more gruesome occupations on Saturday was to watch the Key West webcam showing gawkers at the "southernmost point" of Florida. (Unsurprisingly, it is presently offline.) Hours later, Hurricane Irma moved its 130-mph winds over the Florida Keys. The situation in the Keys grew grim, and one local editor reporting from a shelter of last resort wrote, "Everything is underwater; I mean everything."

A screenshot from the Southernmost Point webcam on Saturday evening.
Enlarge / A screenshot from the Southernmost Point webcam on Saturday evening.

I don't know how many people traveled specially to the Florida Keys to ride out the storm for grins, but at a minimum, they tied up search-and-rescue resources, limited gasoline supplies, and clogged roads after the storm while residents and first responders tried to reach devastated areas after the fact. At worst, they died—or someone died trying to save them.

“Ten-day forecast” guy

Among the most frustrating things during the lead-up to Hurricane Irma's landfall were the newfound "experts" who seized upon the widespread anxiety to promote the next big threat. During this time, Hurricane Jose represented such a threat. I can't count how many times I saw someone on social media share a 10-day model forecast for Jose that looped around the Atlantic Ocean before striking the US East Coast. I'm going to pick on Justin Miller below because the national editor of The Daily Beast ought to know better.

It is true that the operational run of the European model on Saturday (12z) did show a looping Jose returning to near the East Coast around September 20. And yet... this was a single-track forecast at 10 days, when the average error can often be measured in thousands of kilometers. Moreover, there was little support for a US landfall in the ensemble forecast of the same run (this is the 50 or so additional runs of a model, with slightly different initial conditions, at a lower resolution than the operational model).

This is important because, whereas forecasters use the operational model for five-day forecasts, ensembles become more useful after that time due to increasing uncertainty. In the image below, you can see almost no ensemble members bringing Jose to shore. The operational model, therefore, was a huge outlier to be discounted.

Saturday 12z European model ensemble forecast for Hurricane Jose.
Enlarge / Saturday 12z European model ensemble forecast for Hurricane Jose.
Weather Bell)

The problem with "10-day forecast" guy is that he or she doesn't have any real interest in being correct. The primary motivation is "look at me." Having lived through Harvey and writing for shellshocked people in Houston, I can tell you that their greatest fear is that another storm is coming soon, when they are most vulnerable. Constantly, I got questions about Irma—what if it doesn't turn and comes to Texas? This kind of irresponsible social sharing plays on those fears. Jose may ultimately come to the United States, but there is no truth to be found from "10-day forecast" guy.

“It wasn’t that bad” guy

Oh, Ann Coulter. Why must you be so horrible? Coulter, who lives in Palm Beach, Florida, tweeted on Sunday morning at about the time that Irma was covering the Florida Keys in water and bearing down on the southwestern coast of Florida.


First of all, conditions were pretty grim in Miami on Sunday. Secondly, by Friday evening, it was clear that Irma was going to move further west than expected and, instead of hitting southeastern Florida—including the Miami area—it was going to strike the southwestern part of the state. But instead of being inwardly grateful about being spared by Irma or having some empathy for her fellow Floridians, Coulter went full Coulter.

Track forecast interlude

So why did Irma miss Miami? About 48 hours before Irma made landfall along the southwestern Florida coast near Marco Island, hurricane forecasts began closing in on that track. At that time frame before landfall, the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has an average error of about 70 miles.

Along the track Irma was following, the storm was going to come at Florida from the south, and with that angle of incidence, any track error was going to be magnified. Florida is only about 100 miles wide. The entire southern coast (plus the nearshore waters) was still a plausible landfall location 48 hours before landfall. And finally, the official five-day track for the storm was pretty darn good. You can see for yourself in the animation below, compiled by reddit user u/savagedata:

Dumb idea guy

Anyone who writes or reports about hurricanes receives scads of dumb ideas about how best to deal with them. (My favorite, which comes up again and again, is to nuke hurricanes. Not even kidding. As if dropping a nuclear bomb into a system perfectly designed to spread nuclear fallout is somehow a great idea.)

There was no shortage of such ideas and suggestions during Harvey and Irma, but probably the dumbest was the "Shoot at Hurricane Irma" Facebook group. I think the general idea was to show Mother Nature who was boss, and Floridians should shoot first and ask questions later. Or something.

Anyway, the effort garnered enough attention that local law enforcement officials in Florida felt compelled to urge residents not to shoot into Irma. "You won't make it turn around, and it will have very dangerous side effects," police officials advised. Like a bullet returning and hitting someone.

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