COMMENTATORS will soon be offering guidance for the year ahead.

In general, such pieces have a positive bias: optimism sells.

Facing an array of largely geopolitical challenges all year, I’ve indeed been optimistic – on global economic growth, equity markets (the US in particular) and the US dollar.

On balance, this has been a good call, albeit I had hoped for more than 3.7 per cent from US stocks. Still, the US dollar has also risen 5.5%.

With the US economy pulling the global economy up, the new year outlook should then be for more of the same? Perhaps.

With the Brexit countdown nearly ended, recent events demonstrate the folly of fortune-telling a week ahead, never mind a year.

Given that the establishment didn’t want Brexit and, from the start, the EU wishes to discourage others from embarking on a similar course, it is perhaps no surprise that we are where we are.

Looking ahead, we’ve heard much of Brexit red lines; the markets’ red line is to avoid a Corbyn government.

Given the policy changes already voiced by the Labour Party and the threat that the current maelstrom will lead unavoidably to a general election, investment nimbyism seems sensible.

UK equities, however, have already taken a beating and stand on valuations nearly 20% below their 20-year average (based on prospective earnings).

The UK Government is ending the fiscal headwind that has taken nearly 1.5% off UK GDP in the past two years.

With parliament seen as failing the people, the people, having started this, probably need to end it.

If markets get a whiff of a second referendum, there could be substantial upside to sterling.

Abandoning UK assets here is not a no-brainer. But if go you must, then where?

Europe? This looks like the frying pan/fire choice: a messy Brexit will leave a deep footprint on an already lack-lustre European economy.

Japan? Possibly, the underlying strength of the Japanese economy is better than the latest, natural disaster-induced data would suggest.

Better near-term gains look on offer in badly beaten up emerging markets.

Turkey, Brazil and Mexico have all staged powerful rallies after a savage sell-off – is this something China could emulate?

Having acted to let some pressure out of their bloated credit markets, the Chinese authorities found their actions compounded by those of Trump and their domestic economy has shown more weakness than they would like (as they transition away from an export-led model).

They have reacted strongly. In an echo of Mario Draghi’s promise to do whatever it takes (in 2012 to preserve the euro), Chinese policymakers have turned on a sixpence and now are easing both fiscal and monetary policies.

There is always the US. The latest measures of growth in the US economy suggest some moderation, but at 2.9% the rate still shames other developed economies.

This year, soaring corporate confidence drove tax-cut-fuelled consumption and investment, creating an economic boom.

While corporate profits have ballooned and are projected to grow at a double-digit rate next year, the forward valuation is just below the 20-year average.

History suggests that almost always after the US mid-term elections, US equities have generated positive returns in the subsequent nine months.

Also, after large de-ratings, the market has averaged 16% returns in the subsequent year.

With both these scenarios just behind us, solid returns look possible over the winter months.

A final thought on the UK. Brexit will inevitably generate considerable volatility in the market, which will in turn create some good entry points.

Catching a falling knife may be tricky but, echoing the emerging markets mentioned, handsome gains can result.

Just keep an eye on your fingers.

Stephen Jones is chief investment officer at Kames Capital.