Ten weeks to go

Here are this week’s polls.



Scottish, London and Constituency polls




Week 8





375 Responses to “Ten weeks to go”

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  1. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/01/another-tory-mp-could-defect-to-ukip-nigel-farage-suggests

    Any suggestions on who this might be? In fact, do we even believe dear Nigel that this ‘conversation’ is even taking place? Even Farage himself concedes that a possible defection is not really ‘relevant’ at this point. Begs the question as to why he is bringing up (feeling the pressure I think).

  2. @ (Prof) Howard

    The Scottish situation seems rather important…

    I think we can all agree about the importance of any battleground in which there are tens of seats in play.

    However, fluidity must surely also be a factor. Developments are worth watching closely when we see changes from week to week that might affect the outcome of the election. But on my own calculations all the Scottish VIs have been statistically flat for at least ten weeks (picked as it is the time left before the election). If anyone can present any evidence to the contrary then I’d be keen to look at what they have to offer.

    Given the current Scottish polldrums, I can’t see much case for anticipating any further change of fortunes (beyond the radical upsets brought about by the referendum). If Scottish voters have made up their minds, then to my mind this particular sub-drama moves away from centre stage.

    I am aware the some see May 7 as a milestone on the way to the 2016 Holyrood election and that will move debates in different directions. But isn’t it true that we already more or less know how scotland will vote in the General Election?

  3. Prof Howard here.

    Does anyone know why the NI seats have not been opened for discussion this time round on UK Polling Report? I have an interest in them and would like to be able to discuss. Last election(s) it was possible to comment on them.

    It is the anniversary of the 1979 Referenda in Scotland and Wales.

    Northern Ireland may prove to be key to power in the House of Commons.

  5. @ John B

    More locally I find my own occasional conversations with Amber run along similar lines – and I am probably more guilty than she in this matter…..

    The ‘is’ after she is optional, so this version is grammatically correct & more elegant prose, in my opinion anyway. And thank you for a very gracious comment, it’s appreciated.

  6. Howard


    I suspect it’s no more than that Anthony hasn’t had the time to do it. It’s probably that he needs to set up the seats, including all the information from the NI Census maybe in a differing format.

    It might be worth pointing out to the monstrous regiment of Howards that you can change how your name appears on UKPR, so as to prevent all the explanatory notes. Just go to your profile, amend your Nickname and then select the revised form from the drop-down list below. Obviously you need to be logged in for this.

  7. @ Roger Mexico

    It might be worth pointing out to the monstrous regiment of Howards…

    As far as I’m aware, none of UKPR’s many Howards are women. Or are you attempting to ‘reclaim’ the term “monstrous regiment”?

  8. Tristan he is clearly in full wind up mode -there wouldnt be a mention of something was really going on.

  9. @Roll a hard six

    SNP have never described themselves and do not pretend to be socialists. They describe themselves as Social Democrats.

    So I again refer you to Barney’s posts regarding online behaviour.

  10. @Unicorn

    I hope you are right

  11. Couper,

    Social democracy is a major part of the socialist tradition. Plenty of people describe themselves as both.

  12. Looking at the Scottish polls and the relative positioning of the parties on the left-right spectrum. There is a possibility that over the next few elections (GE, Hollywood, Council) that the Tory’s will replace Labour as the main opposition in Scotland.

  13. @Mr Nameless

    Yes social democracy is socialism without the revolution. I probably would describe myself as both, but the SNP never say they are socialists, just a point to counter the ‘national socialist’ description

  14. Just to note that I am the one that many of you remember when colours were allowed. My thanks to Roger Mexico for his suggestion.

    May I suggest to my namesake that he does what TOH I and I (just) did. It only takes a few seconds and will solve the issue if we get a fourth Howard joining us.

    I must admit I am astonished that the system allows more than one user to have the same username.

    .. .

    When Herbert Morrison was asked to define socialism, he replied: Socialism is whatever a Labour Government does.

  16. @MrNameless

    “Social democracy is a major part of the socialist tradition. Plenty of people describe themselves as both.”

    I think you’re right and while there was an attempt by the Gang of Four to fracture the broad Labour church in the early 80s by creating an avowedly Social Democratic Party (Owen’s SDP), many who remained and toughed it out in Labour, people like Healey, Hattersley, Cunningham, Hewitt and Gould, to name but a few, were broadly social democrats rather than socialists in the Marxist sense.

    Ironically, Owen’s SDP contained a variety of political characters, some of whom returned to the Blairite Labour Party many years later, some who went on to found the Liberal Democrat party and others who drifted into Tory politics like Grayling and Lansley. If ever there was a party made up of an exotic pot-pourri of political views, it was the SDP! Their common ground was disillusionment with Michael Foots Labour Party.

    Up to the 70s, countries like France and Italy had separate Socialist and Communist parties who fought each other in national elections. The British Communist Party was electorally insignificant at the time and, accordingly, the Labour Party, certainly up the 80s, contained just about every left-wing strand from a very centrist version of social democracy to Marxism.

    What’s in a name, really? Crosland’s “Future of Socialism”, written in the 50s, is a treatise on social democracy in essence.

  17. http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    Electoral calculus gives some food for thought this month.

    It is often dismissed, because of swingback, but we only have two months left. There will only be 2 more electoral calculus “current predictions”, as the website calls them.

    Currently, it is predicting

    Lab 301
    Con 265
    LD 15
    UKIP 1
    Green 1
    SNP 46
    PC 3
    NI 18

    Obviously, most projections have labour lower and conservative higher, and lib dem higher…but the electoral calculus prediction does highlight the problem the tories are in, given how little time there is left.

  18. How does EC get the Tories so low and Labour so high?

    If the SNP are on 46 it’s predicting ~30 Scottish Labour losses, and if the Lib Dems are on 15 it’s predicting ~20 Tory gains from them in England and Wales.

    So Labour must be gaining, what, 60 Tory seats in England and Wales? Is that actually what UNS predicts on the current swing?

  19. Nevermind, Anthony’s advanced swing calculator says it is.

    Welp. That is quite an English mountain for the Tories to climb.

  20. Prof Howard here. Will change username shortly.

    When does swingback usually start? Maybe we can soon see if it is happening to the extent expected.

  21. Test Message,

  22. Amber Star


    Did I say they were? #EverydaySexism

    (Though trying to reclaim things from John Knox is probably always a good idea).

  23. @ Roger


  24. New Thread.

  25. Labour MP suggests grand coalition: http://labourlist.org/2015/03/labour-mp-says-party-shouldnt-rule-out-a-grand-coalition-with-the-tories/
    Well, why not? Many would consider that they have already converged in their general policies on austerity and the economy. In Lambeth the Labour council is behaving just like a Tory one, for a start.

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