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Is proxy war going to happen in the East China Sea?

Is proxy war going to happen in the East China SeaAuthor : M Arief Pranoto , Research Associate Global Future Institute (GFI)

Some documents of the Global Future Institute (GFI), Jakarta, in 2012 predicted there will be a geopolitical shift in the global conflict, from the Silk Road (the Middle East, Central Asia and North Africa) towards Asia -Pacific, even its “central point “, or the location of the conflict will take place in the South China Sea as predicted by the GFI. apparently, the process is now under way.

Furthermore, the principal reason why the shift is going to happen, has been explained by the GFI’s associate researchers on its website www.theglobal – and several books published by GFI, especially the Second Journal titled: “Tearing the Silk Road pouncing Southeast Asia” (January 2, 2013). The writer will not repeat the discussion except to add additional statement in the paragraphs. This article will focus on a phenomenon in regard with its “central point” change. In other words, it tries to breakdown the anatomy of “spirit “, or the main cause why the geopolitical shift will likely move to the East China Sea, apart from the GFI previous predictions. Here’s the review.

In the perspective of asymmetric warfare, the geopolitical shift will bring logical consequences to the change of political superstructure driving elements and stages. The elements or stages in this case are are issue , themes and schemes. At the level of  preliminary issues for example, the pattern of colonialism in the China Sea is now no longer related to the leadership of tyranny, nor Issues concerning genocide, corruption, democratization, nuclear, and others. Instead, the only issue is now about the “border dispute”. That is currently growing in the China Sea.

Still in the asymmetric corridor, typically the “theme” of colonialism that will be fired after spreading issues is open conflict both in the intrastate level (internal conflict in the country) and the interstate one (interstate conflict). This pattern is repeated, except the issue is countered directly by the ‘targeted’ and targeting parties. While the “scheme” of colonialism as I often say in various writings, has almost never changed throughout the ages, namely the economic domination and the annexation of natural resources in the lands of the colony.

Both the economic domination and the annexation of natural resources have often run simultaneously with different intensity, or often just “one breath” (simultaneously) on a colonization through the change of power–by changing a kind of ‘puppet’ like (the Arab Spring) which was in the process but was out of control on the Silk Road (Please read: What and how does Asymmetric Warfare take place, on, and others.

The document released by the Pentagon’s Project for the New American Century and Its Implication, 2004 (PNAC), clearly implies, that one of the Uncle Sam “mission” is to stem the pace of China’s growing influence. It is inevitable. The NATO raid into Mali and its military invasion to some minor African countries under the pretext of terrorism, Islamic radicalism, etc. are actual portrait related to Western efforts to stem the influence of China in Africa. The question is simple: will Mali be invaded by NATO when it is just a cassava producing country? So understanding what lies beneath the surface and strategic studies by Deep Stoat ‘if you would understand world geopolitic today, follow the oil’ may be the answer to (any) West military aggression to various countries. Oil, gold and natural gas. It’s just a cursory overview, there are many other similar examples.

Why is the South China Sea?

The key issue about border disputes in the South China Sea is about two islands, the Spratly Islands and Paracel Islands. This is the conflict mapping of countries claiming the two islands: (1) the Spratly Islands. Yes , in addition to causing the conflict between China versus several countries such as Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei, etc. even among fellow members of ASEAN itself, there are deposits of a dispute over the Spratly, for each claiming its ownership. That’s the real fact; Second (2) the Paracel Islands. In this context, the Paracels dispute involves China, Vietnam and Taiwan. And China was, still at loggerheads with the Philippines related to the Scarborough Coral, resulting in escalating tense in the 2012s.

In regard with the mapping of dispute, the Spratly Islands conflict is perhaps most interesting, because it involves a number of Southeast Asian countries as detailed above. Why should it be contested by many countries, there is a destiny of leverage over geopolitical and geoposition thereof. That means, in addition to its strategic location on international waterways, the Spratly Islands is also the most important natural resource potential in the form of oil and natural gas which are abundant in the region. Its geostrategic aspect is clear, whoever controls the Spratly is identical to control shipping lanes for vessels moving between the Pacific Ocean – Indian Ocean. That’s the geopolitical leverage contested by the world superpower. Inevitably, its “fate” was similar to Syria, although it was not an oil-rich country as Libya, Iraq, Iran, etc. Syria was also contested by the Eastern and Western superpowers because of its geopolitics of pipelines and geostrategy position on the Silk Road (Read: Looking for the Main Motive of Western Military Attacks against Syria, on www.theglobal -review).

Oil reserves in Spartly are around 10 billion tons (International Herald Tribune, June 3, 1995), but The Geology and Mineral Resources Ministry of the People’s Republic of China estimates that its oil and natural gas reserves amounted to 17.7 billion tons. Still confusing, but if referring to the China’s geological institute, these data place the Spratly as the fourth largest oil reserves-rich country in the world. Amazing. Of course, from the perspective of hegemony which is now being woven by the Bamboo Curtain country, mastering the islands is identical to either reduce dependency on imported oil from Africa, Middle East, and Central Asia, and others.

While in regard with the leverage of Paracel Islands. For the Bamboo Curtain, in addition to just conflicting with Vietnam and Taiwan–its former province–the urgency of China against the island is no less important than the Spratly Islands. Because of the geo-strategy, controlling the Paracel Islands could oversee the movement of navigation in the northern part of the South China Sea, in spite of the natural resources, it is full of rock piles. However  the Paracel Islands also contains abundant oil and natural gas reserves.

Geopolitically, controlling the two islands will automatically take control of international waters, controlling its natural resources wealth potential, in addition to using it as a “stepping stone” for any future for desiring to attack the mainland of Asia. To the last leverage, perhaps it just the writer’s extreme viewpoint. Ignore it!

Be continued…


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