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US stocks finally mad: fear of rising thousands of points

2018-12-27 10:25:17 102 ℃

The last madness of US stocks: fear of rising thousands of points

——The crisis is the opportunity: the historical opportunity of China’s A-shares

A decade ago, the US subprime mortgage crisis triggered a global financial crisis that plagued the world. However, in the second half of 2009, as the center of the world financial crisis (storm eye), the United States passed the crisis to Europe and other countries. Instead, it took the lead in starting a strong economic recovery journey, and the US stocks embarked on a long journey. Year of the slow cattle journey!

The current round of US stock bull market for 10 years, the Dow Jones index and the NASDAQ index both soared N times!

First, the Dow’s ten-year-old slow cow has ended

In March 2009, the Dow’s lowest point was 6469 points;

In September 2009, the Dow exceeded 10,000 points;

In March 2013, the Dow first refreshed its historical record and placed the highest point of the bull market in September 2007 (14198 points) at its feet;

In April 2013, the Dow first captured 15,000 points;

In October 2013, the Dow first captured 16,000 points;

June 2014, The Dow first conquered 17,000 points;

In October 2014, the Dow first captured 18,000 points;

In October 2016, the Dow first captured 19000 points;

< p> 18000 points should be the best destination for this round of US stock bull market, but "Trump Quotes" makes American stocks go crazy!

In January 2017, the Dow first captured the 20,000 mark!

In March 2017, the Dow first captured 21,000 points;

In July 2017, the Dow first captured 22,000 points;

September 2017, The Dow first captured 23,000 points;

In October 2017, the Dow first captured 24,000 points;

In January 2018, the Dow continued to capture 25,000 points and 26,000 points, the highest attack. To 26,616 points (this is the left head of M head);

In March 2018, the Dow plunged to 23,344 points, down 3,272 from the highest point in January 2018. point!

There is a rebound later:

In August 2018, the Dow reached a new high;

In September 2018, the Dow surpassed the history of 26,951. The highest record (this is the right head of M head);

Then open the bear market plunging mode: Cheng also Trump, defeat also Trump!

On December 24, 2018, the Dow fell to a minimum of 21,792 points, a total of 5,159 points from the highest point of the current bull market! The cumulative decline is over 23%!

But the next day: December 26, 2018, the Dow suddenly surged 1086 points, up 4.98% daily!

This is the last dinner of the US stock market? Or the last madness of US stocks?

Second, NASDAQ's ten-year crazy journey re-enacts the 1999 bubble

In March 2009, NASDAQ reached a minimum of 1265 points,

In July 2009, NASDAQ returned to 2000 points;

In February 2012, NASDAQ captured 3000 points;

In November 2013, NASDAQ captured 4000 points;

In March 2015, NASDAQ captured 5000 points. From the last 5000 points lost to 5,000 points, NASDAQ spent 17 years! In the past 17 years, 5000 points have been the pain that NASDAQ can't afford!

In June 2015, NASDAQ stepped on the shame of 5,132 points for the first time and refreshed its history for the first time;

After a year and a half, until the beginning of 2017, NASDAQ has been frustrated. At 6,000 points;

In April 2017, NASDAQ conquered 6000 points for the first time, and the market was ecstatic and excited;

In December 2017, NASDAQ rushed to overcome 7,000 points;

In July 2018, NASDAQ broke the 8000 mark and set the highest point of the bull market at 8133. At this point, the NASDAQ index has risen by 543% in 9 years, and the average annual increase rate in the past 9 years is as high as 23%! This is a long "slow cow" and a very crazy "tech cow"!

The bear market plunging mode was subsequently opened:

On December 24, 2018, NASDAQ plunged to a minimum of 6192 points, a decrease of 1941 compared with the highest point of the current bull market in July 2018. Point, the cumulative decline is more than 30%!

But the next day, NASDAQ broke through 361 points, and the daily increase was 5.84%!

Obviously, this is the last roar of the US technology stock bubble!

III. Conclusions

Inferred from American practice and historical experience:

(1) Once the US dollar enters the interest rate channel, The Fed can raise interest rates as often as 13 to 15 times!

(2) In the past 30 years, each round of US stock market ended, the lowest point of the bear market can fall below 50% of the highest point of the bull market (using the Dow)!

(3) Conclusion: This round of US stock market riots has kicked off, the most optimistic forecast that the Dow can fall below 15,000 points!

(4) A-share opportunities: When US stocks are at the top of the big bull market, China’s A-shares are at the bottom of history, in QFII, RQFII, Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, and soon to Shanghai Under the two-way opening, under the call of MSCI, international capital will be withdrawn from the United States and into China, and A shares will become their safest safe haven or best choice.