One single weak disturbance close to beaching in Central America

Disturbance seventy is in the western Caribbean today, moving west towards central America at 12 knots where it is expected to run ashore and dissipate tonight.

Some computer modellers are still predicting a weak and broad low pressure area over the central Caribbean this weekend but I can only see this being a weak depression at best. This low is expected to track north into the south western Atlantic and merge with a cold front. No modellers – not even those who I can normally rely on to give a gloomy outlook - are predicting tropical cyclone development.

There is still some thunderstorm activity across the Atlantic convergence zone, heavier over the Windward and leeward Islands and in the far east, close to the Cape Verde Islands, but only isolated patches and nothing that is likely to organise or excite.

Stand easy.