Election 2016: 10 things Vote Compass reveals about voters' views on immigration

Updated June 09, 2016 11:52:23

You don't need to see the data to know the issue of asylum seekers and refugees is one of the most contentious in the Australian electorate.

But just where does the public stand on the questions of turning back asylum boats, holding asylum seekers in offshore detention centres while their claims are processed, and the nation's overall refugee intake?

Vote Compass provides some answers.

And here's what we learned.

1. Turning back asylum seeker boats remains divisive

But Vote Compass suggests a slight shift towards more people supporting it.

"The partisan breaks here are huge: 75 per cent of Liberal-National supporters agree that boats should be turned back but only 28 per cent of ALP supporters agree with that," said Dr Aaron Martin, a lecturer in political science research methods at the University of Melbourne and a member of the Vote Compass steering committee.

He said the issue was one of the most polarising of the election campaign.

Former Howard government immigration minister Amanda Vanstone said those opposed to turning boats back were in denial about drownings at sea.

"If we don't control our border, if we don't turn the boats back, people who can afford to pay a people smuggler, people who can afford to use criminals to get here, take up places in the refugee program," she said.

"That means people waiting in camps who haven't got a brass razoo and can't afford a people smuggler stay in the camp."

2. Offshore detention is also highly polarising

So much so, there's no majority on either side of the debate around whether to hold asylum seekers offshore, according to the data.

"There's clearly divisions among the public as to whether this is an appropriate thing to do," Dr Martin said.

It's an issue that can be divided along generational lines, with younger voters generally less keen on the policy.

"I think people are definitely getting a deeper understanding of the impacts of offshore detention," Refugee Council of Australia chief executive Paul Power said.

"But I think they're also realising that neither of the major parties actually has an exit strategy."

3. But a majority of voters want Australia to increase its overall refugee intake

Dr Martin said this represented a disconnect in the public's thinking, one that may be related to the way the issue of asylum seekers is politicised.

"A substantial chunk want boats turned back but then there is also quite substantial support for accepting more refugees," he said.

"I think the party rhetoric around illegal immigrants has created that perception that people arriving by boat are not necessarily genuine refugees."

He said the public was heavily conditioned by politicians' rhetoric on asylum seekers and the way the story was covered in the media.

"Because people don't have a personalised view of this policy area — it's not like health and education or the economy, where there's some objective indicators."

Ms Vanstone said the key to having a nation that treated refugees with respect was to focus on maintaining a level acceptable to the community.

"If you are really a fan of immigration then you will keep the levels at such where the refugees we bring into the community, who go to schools and go to shopping centres, have an easier life of it and don't have any antagonism towards them," she said.

"If you push the numbers up too high that will happen."

For Mr Power, the public's views were a response to what is happening in Europe and elsewhere.

"I think that's due to the fact that there is so much news on a daily basis for so long about the needs of refugees around the world that people are thinking, 'well, maybe Australia can do more than it's currently doing'."

4. Asylum seeker issues split Labor

A majority of ALP voters don't back their party's policies on boat turnbacks and offshore detention.

"The Labor Party has really struggled with how to respond to this [issue]," Dr Martin said.

"I think the parties have really struggled just with the sheer complexity of the issue."

The split may also be an indication of how Labor has changed over time, Dr Martin said, "from a working-class base to a group who have quite progressive social views as well".

For Ms Vanstone, the answer is simple: "This is an uncomfortable area for Labor voters. They know their government messed it up last time and they don't really want to talk about it."

Mr Power said it was an example of the political parties being out of touch.

"The two major parties need to take notice of the fact that they're now at the point where turning back the boats and offshore detention no longer have majority of public support and there is a shift in the mood of the Australian public," he said.

5. There's a clear generation gap in views

Young people are more opposed to boat turnbacks and offshore detention, and more supportive of an increase in Australia's refugee intake.

"Young people overall tend to have a more cosmopolitan view of the world," Dr Martin said.

"That's obviously a pretty sweeping statement but I think having travelled more, having lived in a more diverse country ... that explains the age differences there."

ABC election analyst Antony Green agreed.

"Young voters grew up in a more multi-ethnic society than older Australians," he said.

6. The issues split men and women too

Men are more inclined to support turnbacks and offshore detention.

"I think men by and large tend to take a harder line on a lot of issues," Dr Martin said.

"And you do see huge splits here: 60 per cent of men think boats should be turned back, whereas 40 per cent of women do, so that's a massive difference. And offshore detention, you see the same gender split there as well."

7. Migrants and people born in Australia broadly agree

There's no real difference between immigrants and people born in Australia.

That's not particularly to surprising to Dr Shanthi Robertson, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Culture and Society at Western Sydney University.

"The vast majority of people who are born overseas are not from a refugee background, they are from a skilled migrant background," she said.

"Sometimes older generations of settled migrants don't necessarily have positive views of refugees arriving today."

She said that someone who arrived in Australia from Britain or Europe in the middle of the last century may not have much in common with someone fleeing a current conflict.

"They see their own migration stories as radically different."

Of course, it depends on where those foreign-born respondents come from. A settled migrant from Syria, for example, may view those seeking asylum more favourably.

8. Undecided voters are less supportive of turning back boats

And of offshore detention.

"People are who undecided are most likely to have low political interest," Green said.

"There are a lot of people who think that boats should be turned back who have very strong views on the subject, that's why they are all decided."

9. Queensland most firmly supports status quo

"It's a particular thing with the Queensland regional [areas]," Green said of the fact Queenslanders were most supportive of boat turnbacks and offshore detention.

"It's also high in the south-east [of Queensland], but very high in Queensland regional [areas]. And of course the proportion of Queenslanders who are in a regional area is much higher than the other states."

10. These questions are particularly polarising for people who are highly politically engaged

People who don't care about politics aren't as inclined to take a "strong" position on these issues.

"It's a real motivating issue for people who are politically interested, on both sides of the question," Green said.

Dr Martin said it was an area of public policy where it was difficult to have a reasoned debate.

"There was almost this bipartisan agreement not to politicise the issue for a very long time, and some would argue that's a better way to approach this," he said.

Green said it was interesting that issues of immigration had "retained their political potency" at this election.

"Between 2001 and 2007, the importance of asylum seeker boats had diminished politically," he said.

"It hasn't between 2013 and 2016; it's still there ... I think it's tied to the fact the asylum seekers stopped, they started again under Labor and they've stopped again under the Coalition. So it has become an issue at play in party politics."

These results are based on 291,342 respondents who participated in Vote Compass from May 8 to June 6, 2016. The data has been weighted to ensure the sample reflects the Australian population. [ Read the Vote Compass data FAQ ]

Election 2016 in charts

  1. Turnbull leads Shorten on question of who voters trust

    Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten both say the election is about answering the question "who do you trust?", and Vote Compass data suggests Mr Turnbull has the advantage over his opponent.

  2. Vote Compass: Australians support return to carbon pricing

    Former Liberal leader John Hewson has cast doubt on the political truism that Tony Abbott's campaign to "axe" the carbon tax won him the last election, as new figures show a significant majority of Australians now support putting a price on carbon emissions.

  3. Australians want a federal corruption watchdog, even though major parties don't

    A large majority of Australians want a federal corruption watchdog similar to the NSW ICAC, though the Coalition and Labor are opposed to it.

  4. 10 things Vote Compass reveals about Australians' views on asylum seekers

    Where does the public stand on the questions of turning back boats, offshore detention, boat arrivals and refugee intake?

  5. Vote Compass: Australians have no regrets about Tony Abbott's removal

    Australians remain relaxed and comfortable about the Liberal Party's decision to change prime ministers from Tony Abbott to Malcolm Turnbull, Vote Compass data shows.

  6. Vote Compass: The top election issues in your state

    More than 250,000 people have now filled in ABC's Vote Compass, and the first data out reveals what voters in each state and territory think are the most important issues of the 2016 election.

Topics: government-and-politics, political-parties, social-policy, federal-elections, refugees, immigration, australia

First posted June 09, 2016 06:03:27