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Strategic interests determine US-Russia ties

The US President, Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin had a close interaction at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. The range of discussions spanned from subjects like trade to disarmament and world peace. Putin reiterated that Russia would do all it could to promote relations with the US. The Russian President left the oars of bilateral relations to Washington to decide how best to forge ties between the two superpowers.

The US during last couple of years has come up with aggressive moves like the imposition of sanctions against Russia as punishment for latter’s actions in Crimea and Ukraine, that has pushed bilateral relations over a bumpy road. Washington hoped that Russia will cave in under pressure but that has not happened. Rather, Russia fought back valiantly through its highly successful Syrian venture to up its international mojo.

Moscow is trying to improve relations with the former Cold War foe but without any matching reciprocation from the US. Hence, the attempts to improve ties have not made much progress as Russia perceives that the US is not determined enough to mend fences.

When memories of Ukraine were gradually receding to the back ground, the US elections brought the enmity back to the centre stage once again. The US democrats alleged Russian interference in the US election in Trump’s favour, more popularly known as ‘Russiagate’.

Trump shared personal admiration for Putin and promised during the 2016 election campaign to boost Washington’s ties with Moscow. When Trump took the Presidential Office, the US public in general and Russia in particular expected better US-Russian ties.

However, because of domestic constraints Trump could not fulfil his campaign promise. The influence of ‘Russiagate’ was too overpowering for Trump to attempt improving ties with Russia.

The Washington-Moscow ties are hampered by structural contradictions and the divergence in fundamental interests on Ukraine. This difference in strategic interests is hard to overcome in the short run.

Both countries have realized the need to boost bilateral ties. However, Russia-US relations appear to be at crossroads as political opinion in the US ratchet up pressure on Russia to extract further concessions from Moscow especially on Ukraine.

Trump’s Russia policy is facing domestic criticism. Discussing Trump’s diplomacy at the G20 summit, the US publication ‘Politico’ commented, “Trump’s bonhomie toward Putin has continued into the G20 summit. As he left for the event, Trump blasted host country Japan and India on trade but said nothing about Russia.”

Barriers exist between Washington and Moscow which, if not properly addressed, could keep the US-Russia relations in a limbo. Ties have never been smooth since the end of the Cold War. China is too keen that Russia must break out of what it says “Western shackles”, where their fundamental interests clash if the Putin administration plans to make Russia stronger. Both Russia and the US have their own compulsions, and none is willing to make concessions in key domains such as Crimea and Syria, that makes it tough to break the deadlock.

During their G20 meeting, Putin invited Trump to attend the May 9 Victory Day commemorative events in Moscow in 2020. Will Trump accede to Putin’s request and visit Moscow next year? It is still hard to predict given the fluid international situation, mercurial behaviour of Trump, ensuing the US Presidential Election campaign in 2020 and Trump’s rapport with the establishment.

If domestic opposition continues to be strong against Trump and the public remains critical of ‘Russiagate’, Trump may play truant in improving ties with Russia.

The White House may, if need be, even try to further rein in Moscow in order to please voters to render bilateral relations hostage to the US domestic opinion. But the fundamental interests of the two major powers are the main determinants of foreign policy. No matter who becomes the US President, American interests will be paramount. So will be Russia’s interests.

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