Friday, July 26, 2002

Invasion Update

A recent article from UPI says we will use seven divisions to invade Iraq. With 101st Airborne withdrawing from Afghanistan, that portion of the invasion force is getting ready. Since 82nd Airborne is replacing the 101st, that division will be unavailable for Iraq. Since we are using minimal force in Afghanistan, having that elite parachute division there will work just fine. Two divisions of Marines will provide a good infantry capability for urban fighting and of course can use helicopters to insert infantry and artillery behind the Iraqis (which the 101st will do as well). The UPI article says the Marines will use amphibious assault but that makes no sense. Why go over the beach on the small Iraqi coastline when the Army will sweep past it on the first day? Still, Marines will be a welcome addition. With an extra division than what I thought we'd need to win (two heavy, one air assault, one light, one Marine, and one airborne in reserve), we have plenty margin for error. I'm assuming three heavy divisions, one air assault, one light, and two Marines now) Sending so many divisions to Iraq, plus Afghanistan (and Bosnia, Kosovo, Korea, and the smaller packets elsewhere) means National Guard combat units will have to be mobilized as a strategic reserve, and not just the reserves combat support and combat service support units (which must be mobilized for anything bigger than a Grenada-sized operation).

Plus, looks like we'll have a British brigade or so, plus special forces from a bunch of allies.

My bet is we start moving in November and strike in January.