

Under the modelled no deal scenario, the UK and EU a

This analysis does not consider any potential impact of the UK aligning with the EU as it changes its rules in the future. The future direction of EU policy is uncertain, and could have both positive and negative impacts on the UK economy. This analysis looks only at the long-term economic impacts, and for this purpose the long term can be interpreted as around 15 years after the UK’s new relationship with the EU comes into effect. It is focused only on the specific changes triggered by EU exit and as such is not an overall economic forecast. The analysis does not consider short-term operational or wider economic effects, including where there is potential for short-term effects to sustain in the long run. Economic impacts It is expected that in all scenarios considered in this publication, the economy will continue to grow in the long run. The estimates show the relative impacts of different trading arrangements. The analysis shows that higher barriers to UK-EU trade would be expected to result in greater economic costs. The analysis compares the long-term economic impact of each of the modelled scenarios against today’s arrangements, first considering trade effects only (migration effects are considered separately and described below). It also compares the central estimates of the modelled White Paper and modelled average FTA scenarios to the modelled no deal scenario over the long run, by again considering trade effects only. Table E.1: Summary of trade only impacts on GDP compared to the modelled no deal scenario. 45 Compared to modelled no deal (percentage point difference) Modelled White Paper Modelled average FTA Modelled White Paper Modelled White Paper with 50 per cent NTB sensitivity5 GDP +6.9 +5.4 +2.7 No migration or regulation effects. Central estimates only.6 Comparisons to modelled no deal are calculated as the difference between the scenario and modelled no deal, expressed in percentage points of today’s arrangements