Wednesday, 4 January 2017

Sir Ivan Rogers is right on all counts

So 2017 and off we go with the endless, remoaning festival of whining. This may last some time.

However, the reaction to the loss of our esteemed EU negotiator does rather split as usual on Remain (he was god, we are now lost) and Leave (EUSSR traitor, best rid of him).

So perhaps the key part that is unnoticed but of the most import, as I often repeat here, is that what Sir Ivan says is indeed truth.

The EU are not about to offer us a goldilocks deal but negotiate an exit treaty, then we will need to negotiate a future trade deal - AFTER Brexit. This trade deal maybe in stages but could take some time. I think 10 years is pushing it, but certainly 5 or more must be on the cards.

It can only be a 'Hard' Brexit on the terms of Article 50 and there is no will in the EU to make it otherwise for the traditional reasons - pour encourager les autres.

Plus with all the elections in the EU this year, not much is going to really happen - hence my despair at the hot air created for of all of this. First the EU will make some outrageous claims to negotiate with in the exit treaty (EU pensions payments for 50 years etc). This will keep the diplomats busy for 18 months. Then once this is agreed the Article 50 time-limit is nearly over and the UK is out (or free, rather).

The only possible change to this is if there are major changes in the French and German Governments - but even then little Luxembourg and Wallonia can have their say. This after all is the false democracy of the EU where the power of the few outweighs the will of the many.

So, I am in complete agreement with the Leavers that Sir Ivan was right to go to be replaced by someone whose heart was in it. But also that his resignation letter was not really meant for the Prime Minister but for everyone else as it contains a fair assessment of the situation - Utopia is nearly upon us!


Sackerson said...

But, not the behaviour of a diplomat.

Jan said...

The key word is negotiate. This morning's Today programme had Jonathan Powell going on about knowing what the objectives of the leaving process are as if they are fixed and immutable. The whole point of negotiations is surely to be flexible and to reach as close to a "win win" outcome as possible. We can still get on perfectly well with our European neighbours if everyone acts reasonably.

Many of the remainers seem to still be in a state of apoplexy and unable to see any advantages to life without their blessed EU.

Jackart said...

This blog, once interesting is just worthless sub UKIP Brexit-o-twattery. There are no upsides to this idiocy.

Blue Eyes said...

Some well-argued points there Jackart.

E-K said...

Surely an EU flag, Jackart ?

CityUnslicker said...

The next stages are bargaining then acceptance Jackart, although you seem in the anger stage to me - at least you are through denial.

Timbo614 said...

I thought he acted exactly like all polititians/heads of enquirys/services etc: When the going gets tough - take the money and run.

Nothing suprises me anymore.

Anonymous said...

I found it rather refreshing. Obviously Number 10 had been on manoeuvres, and he pulled the rug in response.

The government isn't giving a very competent impression at the moment, being quite meek as though not to piss off those wanting a soft Brexit. Well, how pissed off do they think they'll be when cold reality is flung in their faces? Has May forgotten how well Clegg's reality-based U-turn went for him?

We need a bit of clarity, and truth, and without it the nation remains divided between Remoaners grasping for hope and the Brexiters starting to get wary of a stitch-up.

Labour's ill-fortunes won't last forever, and right now the Conservatives are looking fools on the main story of the year.

So, yes, glad he resigned in the way he did. May compel some actual honesty about what's going on.

Anonymous said...

He was there to do a job, and he's legged it cos he doesn't like what people voted for, but to be fair he's merely following in Cameron's seedy footsteps.

Blue Eyes said...

There was a brilliant blog post seen on Twitter where an LSE politics professor argued that the UK had not actually voted to Leave...

Dick the Prick said...

Politics is war by other means. Economics is a function of politics. English is a function of grunts. We adapt. Some of us do it well.


Anonymous said...

Exactly, previous Anon.

Like Cameron, as CU says, whose heart was not in it, Rogers would probably subconsciously sabotage the process just to prove himself right

Blue Eyes said...

Meanwhile UK PMI is up. Construction PMI is up. Manufacturing PMI is up. No upsides, only downsides.

andrew said...

Anon @8pm

"The government isn't giving a very competent impression at the moment"


They only need to be less incompetent than the other side.