

Sunday is the 70th anniversary of the 1948 founding of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, as the North is officially known, three years after Moscow and Washington divided the peninsula between them in the closing days of the Second World War.

Such set-piece dates are a mainstay of the North's political calendar, particularly when round numbers are involved, and have traditionally been occasions for showing off its latest hardware.

"Anniversaries are important in the DPRK, and this one is particularly so," said Evans Revere of the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington. "These celebrations are also occasions for the leader to demonstrate accomplishments and national power, and to take credit for them."

Looking for clues




Too militaristic a display could risk upsetting the diplomatic dalliance on the peninsula, after Kim's Singapore meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in June and his third summit with the South's President Moon Jae-in due in Pyongyang later this month.

'Slap in the face'

"If they show off ICBMs it will be a massive provocation and it will be a slap in the face for the United States," said Andrei Lankov of Korea Risk Group.

He did not expect the North to do so, particularly because it would put the visiting Chinese delegation in the difficult position of appearing to endorse the weapons programs that have resulted in Pyongyang's being subjected to multiple international sanctions.

Beijing is its neighbor's key diplomatic protector and trade partner, and after years in the deep freeze over the North's missile and nuclear tests, their ties have warmed rapidly this year, with Kim visiting China three times to meet President Xi Jinping.


Instead, Xi will be represented by Li Zhanshu, the head of China's parliament and a member of the Communist Party's politburo standing committee, the most powerful body in the country.




Kickoff concert



In April, Kim declared that the North's development of nuclear weapons had been completed and "socialist economic construction" would be the new strategic priority.

"It'll be interesting to see if Kim Jong Un does try to change the symbolism, change the message to essentially diminish the militaristic message and enhance the economic message," Delury said. "That's what I'm watching for, anyway."

Source: Voice of America