Four Reasons Why Losing the Courtenay/Comox Recount Might Help the N.D.P.


If the BC(neo)Libs overturn the result in Courtenay /Comox, the parliament seat count would be 44- 40- 3.

That looks like a majority, but another election would soon result, as the BC(neo)Libs have few policies even close to palatable to the Greens or the NDP and their vote lead would be so scant. But regardless of the outcome of the recount there will be another election soon.

Although the recount result might have little legislative significance, it could have considerable political significance that could ultimately help the N.D.P.


1) It may keep Christy Clark as B.C.(neo)Lib Leader
Looking past Christy Clark is not something the B.C. voter is used to, but it’s not difficult to see the vultures gathering.

Kevin Falcon and perhaps even James Moore are circling the carrion of her BC(neo)Lib leadership. Either of them could resurrect BC(neo)Libs ,with Ms.Clark’s myriad controversies and missteps purged by her downfall.

If Ms. Clark can claim “A majority government”, she can hang on to the Premiership and party leadership for the brief period it will take for the government to collapse. If she leads the government into the next election, the electoral message may likely be “perhaps you didn’t hear us on May 9th
2) It would make the Greens position even more stark.

Were the seat count 44- 40 -3, once a speaker was appointed, the voting MLA count would effectively be 43-40-3 – a deadlock should the Greens vote with the N.D.P. True, the speaker can vote in a “tie” situation, but repeated tie breaking votes would soon rob the speaker of any appearance of parliamentary objectivity.
With a virtual tie in the house, the government could pass any legislation not voted against by all three Green MLAs. making Greens appear responsible for the passage of any regressive legislation, even if it’s a trade off situation.

While N.D.P. opposition is expected, the Greens would only have the power to allow passage of bills or force a tie breaking vote, a weaker and more stark position than the balance of power situation they are currently in.

3)It would likely strengthen John Horgan’s Leadership

Were a minority B.C.(neo)Lib government to limp along, John Horgan would get media coverage that he didn’t get during the election. The more people see of John Horgan the more they like him. A Christy Clark “majority” government would give him more media exposure and more opportunity to explain his party’s platform.

The N.D.P. would be expected to oppose the BC(neo)Lib legislation and would not be blamed for their imminent downfall – the three Greens would wear that,as the party that could prop up the government but didn’t.
Mr.Horgan would be able to both court and criticize the Green Party for dithering or vacillating on marginally acceptable legislation.


4) It would likely reinforce the anger of the B.C. electorate towards Christy Clark.

The overwhelming message of the May 9th election was “we’ve had it with Christy Clark, her dishonesty, her scandals, and her pay for play government.”

If she can limp along with a “majority” government, an angry electorate will speak even more loudly in the next election, likely identifying the N.D.P as the real opposition to smiling Christy ,especially given that Weaver has been courting the B.C.(neo)Libs so openly of late.




Of course this is all speculation. We’ll have to wait to see what happens in the imminent recounts. Yes, yes, it will “be interesting”.

But one thing is sure. For the N.D.P, facing a B.C. (neo) Lib. Party led by Christy Clark is politically and strategically a better option  than having a minority government fall in weeks and facing a B.C.(neo)Lib party purged of all sins by dumping Christy Clark for the people’s saviour, Kevin Falcon or James Moore.


About jimnelson806

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