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The Polish power generation system is based mostly on coal-fired power plants. Therefore, the coal mining sector is strongly sensitive to changes in the energy sector, of which decarbonization is the crucial one. The EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS) requires power generating companies to purchase European Emission Allowances (EUAs), whose prices have recently soared. They have a direct impact on the cost efficiency of hard coal-fired power generation, hence influence the consumption of hard coal on the power sector. In this context, the objective of this paper is to estimate the hard coal consumption in various regions of Poland under selected forecasts of the EUA price. To investigate this question, two models are employed:

 - the PolPower_LR model that simulates the Polish power generation system,

 - the FSM _LR model that optimizes hard coal supplies.

Three scenarios differentiated by the EUA price are designed for this study. In the first one, the average EUA price from 2014–2017 is assumed. In the second and third, the EUA prices are assumed accordingly to the NPS and the SDS scenario of the World Energy Outlook. In this study we consider only existing, modernized, under construction and announced coal-fired power generation units. The results of the study indicate that regardless of the scenario, a drop in hard coal consumption by power generation units is observed in the entire period of analysis. However, the dynamics of these changes differ. The results of this analysis prove that the volume of hard coal consumption may differ by even 136 million Mg (in total) depending on the EUA prices development scenario. The highest cumulated volume of hard coal consumption is observed in the Opolski, Radomski and Sosnowiecki region, regardless of the considered scenario.

JO - Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi - Mineral Resources Management L1 - http://www.czasopisma.pan.pl/Content/112133/PDF/kaszy%C5%84ski-i-inni.pdf L2 - http://www.czasopisma.pan.pl/Content/112133 IS - No 4 EP - 134 KW - fuel and energy sector KW - hard coal KW - EU ETS impact KW - EUA price KW - hard coal mining industry ER - A1 - Kaszyński, Przemysław A1 - Komorowska, Aleksandra A1 - Kamiński, Jacek PB - Komitet Zrównoważonej Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi PAN PB - Instytut Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi i Energią PAN VL - vol. 35 JF - Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi - Mineral Resources Management SP - 113 T1 - Regional distribution of hard coal consumption in the power sector under selected forecasts of EUA prices UR - http://www.czasopisma.pan.pl/dlibra/docmetadata?id=112133 DOI - 10.24425/gsm.2019.128538