Wednesday, 23 July 2014

Did the Buffalo Sabres Blot Out Their Chances of Drafting Connor McDavid?

Did the Buffalo Sabres blot out their chances of drafting Connor McDavid by inking Matt Moulson, Brian Gionta, Cody McCormick, and Andrej Meszaros during Free Agent Frenzy? Did their July 1st acquisition of Josh Gorges further dim their chances of taking the presumptive first overall selection at the 2015 NHL Draft?

Those are the questions posed by Jason Kay of The Hockey News after Buffalo--a team that is aggressively rebuilding--surprised commentators by stocking up on veterans with offensive upside.

While those moves may seem counterproductive, they were arguably part of (not a divergence from) the overarching plan to draft high in 2015.

Presumptive first-overall pick is as likely to end up in Buffalo as he ever was. (picture source)

Murray and co. have essentially signed players up for an impending fire sale. Why else would Murray re-sign a player that he acquired solely as trade once already? Did he have a change of heart after trading Matt Moulson?

That's doubtful. I suspect that he re-signed Moulson just to trade him again down the line. When Moulson ratchets up goals next season, he'll attract attention from teams that could end up in the standings anywhere between a wildcard spot in the playoffs or a seat on TSN during the draft lottery. Hoping for the latter outcome, Buffalo will gladly deal Moulson to that team in exchange for picks.

Buffalo's management, I argue, sees these new signings not as permanent fixtures but a crop of talent that will ripen into high draft picks for the organization. Come the 2015 trade deadline, Murray will put away his modest suit, put on a pimp hat, and tell Moulson et al. to go make him some money.

In the meantime, the players can enjoy the downtime between the start of the season and the trade deadline, when they will be acquired by teams who are pressing for playoff berths. Sure, Buffalo's impermanent additions will need to show up on the box scores enough to garner trade interest. None of them can perform a disappearing act like Thomas Vanek in the 2014 NHL playoffs. But there is no pressure for them to make the team successful. They are strictly auditioning for roles on playoff-hopefuls.

After shipping the talent to other markets, Murray can focus on calling up prospects in order to give them some NHL seasoning. They will, at times, look as hilariously helpless on the ice as Bambi, but the extended cameos in the major league will provide them with an inside track in their development.

Pictured: Rasmus Ristolainen works on shot blocking after being called up to join the Sabres. 

In other markets, putting prospects in losing situations might hinder their development. But in Buffalo, no one will expect them to carry the team. Indeed, there will be plenty of coaches, trainers, and managers to reassure them that failure is expected (for the time being), so they should focus on learning instead of winning. With any and all aspirations of a playoff appearance removed, the prospects will be sheltered from expectations that seem to have crushed other young players who were thrown into NHL action to soon (for examples see Oilers, Edmonton).  

The only wrinkle in this plan is the salary cap floor, but the Sabres will be able to resolve this issue easily. As Murray has noted, it's easy to spend money in the NHL. One quick solution would involve retaining money on the contracts that he's eagerly offloading.

Cup contenders will have problems squeezing potential difference makers into their overcrowded salary caps. Buffalo, however, can offer discounts (for the small fee of a first-round pick). Sure, they can't take this approach with every new acquisition. They won't likely retain a portion of Moulson's salary over the next five seasons, but they could definitely absorb half of Meszaros' 1-year contract and make him highly attractive as a discounted rental.

Moreover, Murray can charge premiums for teams who buy up some of his abundant cap space. The Calgary Flames attempted this scheme when they offered to take on Mike Ribeiro's and Cam Ward's undesirable contracts in exchange for first-round picks from the Phoenix Coyotes and Washington Capitals respectively.

The Flames likely failed because they attempted this ploy right before the draft, when hockey clubs have nothing to do but daydream about the potential of future prospects. Around the trade deadline, when teams are desperate to make the playoffs and the draft is a distant memory, GMs will have a better appetite for throwing in a high pick just to attain cap relief. And no team will be more ready, able, and eager to take on the other teams' millstones than the Buffalo Sabres.

So here's my prediction for the Buffalo in 2014-15: they will be a middling-to-poor team until the trade deadline, when management will decorate its war room to resemble the set from SNL's "Pimp Chat."  

Artist's rendering of Tim Murray receiving the "Pimp of Da Month" award for his work during the 2015 NHL Trade Deadline.

Monday, 21 July 2014

Forbesing Ahead:Why Everyone Wants the Leafs to Win (even you)






















Thursday, 10 July 2014

Tre Maple: Celebrating the Swedish Invasion of Toronto

Earlier this year, Brendan Shanahan suggested that the Toronto Maple Leafs lacked a team identity. It seems that Dave Nonis has responded by changing the team's nationality all together.

The biggest news coming out of the Leafs' 2014 prospect camp is the number of Swedish skaters in attendance. William Nylander, Viktor Loov, Tom Nilsson, Andreas Johnson, and Pierre Engvall represent the 5 Swedes at the camp. Combined, Sweden is contributing roughly 1/6 of the young talent gathered for seminars, drills, and scrimmages at the Mastercard Centre in Toronto this week.

The MSM have commented extensively on Sweden's strong showing in Toronto. The topic has become part of Paul Hendrick's interviews with prospect attendees, and Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News has even suggested that the team has newly developed "an infatuation with Swedes." 

And is there any wonder given Nylander's "come forecheck" stare?

Meanwhile, fervent Ontario patriot and anti-European partisan Don Cherry is probably already writing the epitaph for the blue-and-white following this Swedish invasion. I, for one, think that we should welcome our new Nordic overlords. And so I've put together some jersey prototypes that embrace the Leafs' new Scandinavian identity.

Here's the new home jersey.

Here's the new away jersey.

And, in case you're not familiar with Sweden's iconic "Tre Kronor" jerseys, here are the models for prototype 1 and 2.

What do you think of the Scandinavian conquest of Toronto?

Wednesday, 2 July 2014

The Bolland era ends as a costly cameo

Imagine this: you work for a struggling company. In order to stay sustain itself in an increasingly competitive field of business, your company courts a marginal contributor from a successful competitor. Almost immediately after being hired, the new employee must go on sick leave for an extended period of time. During her or his absence, the company's struggles worsen to such an extent that it actually performs worse than it did before the new hire arrived. Right after the unwell employee returns to work, she or he demands an exorbitant raise or threatens to walk away from the foundering business.

That scenario is basically what went down between the Toronto Maple Leafs and their former forward, Dave Bolland, who left Toronto after spending more time on crutches than skates at the Air Canada Centre.

At the 2013 NHL draft, the Leafs gave up three draft picks in order to acquire Bolland, who played a mere 23 games in blue and white. Basically, Toronto gave up three potential NHL players for a guy who played less than one third of a single season. The Leafs essentially gave up significant (or at least not completely insignificant) assets for Bolland to make an extended guest appearance on their roster.

Bolland is to the Leafs what Leonardo DiCaprio was to the cast of Growing Pains.

Instead of taking a pay cut to make up for his disappointing debut in blue and white, Bolland relied on a fiction to boost his value and bargaining power. The story goes that had Bolland's ankle not been severed by Zack Kassian last November, the Leafs would have fared much better in the 2013-14 NHL standings.

That's right: an NHL player actually used a version of himself from an alternate universe as a bargaining chip.

Maybe that's a fair approach. Perhaps Bolland used his extensive knowledge of theoretical physics to prove that there is, in fact, a bizarro-world Bolland in a universe wherein--on the strength of his Conn Smythe winning efforts alone--he led the Leafs to their first Stanley Cup championship since 1967, and then celebrated in the off-season by discovering the secret to nuclear fusion and a bacon-flavoured cure for the common cold.

Such a player would certainly command the same salary cap hit as John Tavares.

Some of you might think that an NHL player is entitled to ask for whatever he wants when he becomes a UFA. You're right, in the sense that no crimes were committed yesterday when free agents asked to be absurdly overcompensated in terms of salary and contract length. However, being able to do something doesn't justify doing it. For example, there's no law prohibiting me from accusing squirrels of being Nazi sympathizers, but that circumstance does not justify my attempts to have Rocket J. Squirrel tried for war crimes.

I maintain that Rocky's full name is "V-2 Rocket J. Squirrel."

Ultimately, Bolland's contract demands are a testament to how disastrously Toronto misjudged their asset. The Leafs acquired Bolland as a character guy--in the sense that character means exemplary qualities of leadership, determination, and excellence. Instead, they got a character in the mold of a Dickensian dastard.

If Bolland had any interest in showing character (in the nobler sense of the word), he would have taken a one-year contract at around his former cap hit. That gesture of good faith would have shown a willingness to make up for the lost time. More importantly, it would afford the Leafs an opportunity to verify that Bolland can still play before signing him to a long-term, lucrative deal. Instead, Bolland eloped with the first team that was willing to take a gamble on his uncertain future.

Bolland's own parting words emphasize that he joined the Panthers purely for mercenary reasons. In explaining his reasons for joining the Panthers, Bolland remarked, "Florida was there with the money and Toronto wasn't." And so, after all the pageantry of the earnest, down-to-earth Mimico boy returning to his homeland last season, Bolland heads to Sunshine, Florida looking like a gold digger.

For Leafs fans, schadenfreude is perhaps the only consolation after #63's unceremonious departure: Bolland's ankle may very well become the Achilles' heel of the Florida Panthers' salary cap.