Friday, October 08, 2010

Arab League Preparing To Back Abbas Decision To Leave Direct Talks

The 'Palestinian' Authority's unelected President Mahmoud Abbas has arrived in Libya to seek Arab League backing for his decision to quit direct talks with Israel over Israel's decision at least thus far not to extend the unilateral incentive they gave to Abbas and the Palestinians 10 months ago of freezing construction in Judea and Samaria.

Abbas had gone into the talks vowing not to 'give a single concession to Israel' and had made several threats to walk out.

As I've mentioned before, Abbas and Fatah were aware from the first that the Israeli freeze was a one time special offer available for a limited time only, so it's quite obvious that they planned this kabuki crisis in advance in an effort to get President Obama to put more pressure on Israel for further concessions.

Israeli PM Binyamin Netanyahu made a public statement outlining Israel's position and urging the Palestinians to stay in the talks.





This is a direct reference to some vague carrot and stick proposals offered to Israel by Obama in exchange for an extension of the freeze for 60 or 90 days, something that was confirmed by Israel's Ambassador to the US Michael Oren.

According to my sources, the stick part included a threat that Obama would have the US adopt as a policy that a 'Palestinian' state is to be set up along all of the pre-1967 borders, including half of Jerusalem...and that the US would back a UN resolution creating it. The carrot part included a few military sales, along with Barack Obama apparently agreeing to veto any UN Security Council resolutions concerning Israel and a 'Palestinian' state for a period of one year.

Obama reportedly also pledged to accept an IDF presence in the Jordan Valley to prevent the smuggling of rockets, mortars, arms, and the infiltration of terrorists into Israel.

The problem with Obama's proposal is that the 'Palestinians' would never sign off on the carrot part of it, even if the Israelis did. And with the Israeli public and Netanyahu's cabinet solidly opposed, it's unlikely the Israel will sign on either.

Palestinian sources are insisting that Abbas and his team told the US they would only accept the American proposal if the US administration gave the Palestinians a guarantee that an agreement on the borders of a future Palestinian state would be reached within the two- or three-month time period of the new moratorium.

Since the Palestinians have said from the first that they are not willing to make any concessions and insist on the pre-1967 lines in their entirety, what that amounts to is an ultimatum to Obama to 'deliver' Israel.While I'm sure Obama would love to do so, he simply doesn't have the leverage over Israel just now.

The entire building freeze issue is nonsense anyway.It was never an issue for either side as far as negotiations went until Obama insisted on making it one. As things are now, even if the 'Palestinians' wanted to continue the talks - and there's little incentive for them to do so anyway- Obama has essentially made it difficult for them to appear less Catholic than the Pope and adopt a more moderate position than the one Obama originally took.

Another issue for the Israelis is that at his point, they have very good reasons not to trust any of Barack Hussein Obama's assurances.

The Arab league meetings in Libya are going to continue for several days while the back channel diplomacy ramps up.

Barring a surprise development, I think the talks are essentially over for now.

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Anonymous said...

The Palestinian leaders and Hamas do not want peace they only want all the Jews gone. The Palestinian people are nothing but pawns. They are taught from birth that this is theirhighest and best utility in life; i.e. being a martyr for the cause (the cause being hatred of the jews). They are willing to live their lives in poverty so that their assets and work can be used to defeat the Jews. They are willing to give up their childrens lives and futures for that goal. The ONLY question here is why does Israel let themselves get pulled into this waste of time and effort?

B.Poster said...

This is completely nuts. Israelis would be absolutely insane to agree to the carrot/stick proposal that seems to be discussed in this post. The Palestinians are also nuts, as well. How is the US going to "guarantee" any thing on the borders of a Palestinian State. The Israelis would have something to say about that. Is the US going to go to war with Israel? If so, the military is a little busy right now in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere in the world. As such, there simply aren't the available troops or military hardware or other items to support another military operation. Even the necessary military assets were available, the American public want even support military actions against Iran, more aggressive actions against the Taliban, standing up to Russia, or much any other threat to the United States right now. As such, how do the Palestinians expect the American people to react to actual or implied military actions against a nation who hasn't harmed us in any way?

Perhaps the Palestinians aren't nuts at all. I've been told that if you really don't want to negotiate about something and want to save face, sometimes a good approach is to make an impossible demand of the other parties involved be it the Israelis or the Americans. Perhaps that is what is at play here. It is clearly impossible for the United States to make any guarantees about the future borders of a Palestinian state.

Clearly the Americans are the nuttiest of all participants in this process. America faces MASSIVE problems right now. Even if you could reach assist the Israelis and the Palestinians to reach peaceful accomodations with one another, this does NOTHING to solve the problems that America faces. Not only does it do nothing to address any of the issues America currently faces, America has very little influence over either the Palestinians or the Israelis right now.

Basiclly what the American government, especially the Obama Administration, is doing is spending resources to solve a problem that is literally a world away. Even if this problem is satisfactorilly resolved to the mutual benefit of the Israelis and the Palestinians, it does absolutely nothing to solve the problems America faces. In addtion, America lacks sufficient leverage over either the Palestinians or the Israelis to actually do any thing.

It makes absolutely no sense as to why the Mr. Obama, his team, and the American government would be spending time on this issue right now. At the very least, this indicates incredibly bad judgement on the part of Mr. Obama, his team, and the American Government. As such, I think it is no wonder Mr. Obama is wildly unpopular right now.

Is there any way Congress can put a stop to this nonsense? Can we defund the state department or something? In any event we have GOT TO UTILIZE our precious resources in such a way as to solve the problems plaguing every day Americans. We cannot afford to stay off on things like this that only serve to distract us from dealing with what we need to be dealing with.