AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, June 11, 2020
The majority of today’s trade will focus on the monthly supply and demand data from the USDA. For the most part, trade is expecting few changes from the May data. With planting still taking place it will be hard to see much change, although a favorable start to the growing season from the weather side may cause slight increases to yield estimates. That said, any change to acres could easily negate any of this potential support. When it comes to acres the most interest may be on last year’s crops as acres in North Dakota have been resurveyed for this release. Last month we had a 29 million bu reduction to the 2019/20 crop from lost acres in other states. It would not be surprising to see a similar decrease this month. Ending stocks are expected to be little changed on old crop contracts, and slight increases are being predicted for new crop corn and soybeans. Chinese demand will be key in these numbers, especially on soybeans. While soybean exports have perked up recently, they still trail the amount needed to reach our current projections. A few projections are floating around we could see old crop soybean demand cut another 100 million bu. While possible, this seems a little aggressive given the time we have left to make sales. From the global side, very few changes are expected to ending stocks across the board. Once this data is released, trade will be quick to turn its attention back to daily export demand and crop reports. We will also start to see more attention shift towards the USDA reports that will be released at the end of the month, those being the quarterly stocks and revised plantings estimates. 

* WASDE Report at 11:00 AM CT
* Rumors of Chinese business not confirmed
* Safrinha harvest not pressuring corn market 
* US dollar continues to decline
* Concerns remain over US economy stability
* US consumer prices decline for 3rd straight month
* US ethanol production rebounding
* 2020 Farm Income to decline 15% from 2019
* 2021 Farm income to decline even further
* Economists predict 7.4% decline in Ag product values next quarter
* Weather remains favorable

* Yield est 178.3 bpa, crop size 15.9 bbu
* 19/20 carryout est 2.16 bbu; +65 mbu
* 20/21 carryout est 3.35 bbu; +38 mbu
* World carryout est 340 mmt
* Brazil crop 99.5 mmt, Argentina 49.8 mmt

* US yield est 49.9 bpa, crop size 4.14 bbu
* 19/20 carryout 578 mbu
* 20/21 carryout est 429 mbu
* World carryout est 98.7 mmt
* Argentine crop 50.7 mmt, Brazil 123 mmt

* US crop 1.85 bbu
* 19/20 carryout 980 mbu
* 20/21 carryout 909 mbu
* World carryout est 308 mt
* Harvest making rapid progress

* Wholesale values continue to decline   
* Pork values lowest since March
* Slaughter numbers continue to climb
* Cash sales remain limited
* Cash livestock remain at a premium to futures
