Media and the Market

"Every day, the news media deliver forecasts without reporting, or even asking, how good the forecasters who made the forecasts really are" Philip Tetlock

“Ignoring the maelstrom of the media – perhaps nothing is more preposterous than the explanations commentators give for price movements on Wall Street on any given day – makes it easier to focus on what is important” Leon Levy 

"Because bad news sells, the media has a pessimistic bias. Over many years, a large percentage of the severe problems predicted by the media never materialised, or proved to be far less severe than predicted" Ed Wachenheim

"Media outlets are quick to present us with one crisis after another, along with constant economic and political worries. With the help of the Internet and many television stations, bad news circles the planet in no time. With the right twist, plain old bad news begins to look more and more like an imminent catastrophe and for many investors, the perfect reason to sell their stocks! Good news, on the other hand, remains largely unnoticed since it seems to represent a less valuable source for ratings and clicks." Francois Rochon 

"The media has an interest in translating the improbable into the believable. There is a difference between the real risk and the risk that sells papers. A catastrophe like a plane crash makes a compelling news story. Highly emotional events make headlines but are not an indicator of frequency. Consider instead all the times nothing happens” Peter Bevelin 

“The idea that people affiliated with Wall Street know something. My mother is a classic example. She watches “Wall Street Week” and she takes everything they say with almost a religious fervour. I would bet that you could probably fade ‘Wall Street Week’” Paul Tudor Jones

"Whenever something is really pounded or when something is skyrocketing and it is on the front page of the New York Times, no matter how much you agree with it in the long term, you have to reverse yourself for a while.  The dollar for instance, was on the front page of the New York Times three or four time recently.  I am terribly bearish on the dollar, as you have heard, but I have enough sense to know that when it is in the popular press, I should not be selling dollars"  Jim Rogers

“I’d suggest you not read the newspaper [headlines].” William Browne

"Financial crisis are like thunder storms - you hear stomach-jolting thunder after lightening has struck; rarely do the media and masses telegraph financial catastrophes in advance" Allan Mecham

“The rest of the print and TV business press are notorious pilers on. A classic case was during 1979 and 1981 as oil prices and inflation surged. Numerous books were published by experts forecasting hyperinflation, depression, and a collapse of the dollar. At one point, 7 of the top 10 books on the bestseller list were about inflation and how to survive it. Even wise investors like John Templeton gave speeches saying 7% to 8% inflation was inevitable. Of course, decades of disinflation, not inflation, were about to occur, during which both stocks and bonds would soar” Barton Biggs

“Markets often do things that defy logical explanation – but people keep explaining them anyway. Why don’t we ever hear, “The market rose today, but no-one knows why?” Howard Marks

“It’s a rare day when a journalist says, “The market rose today for any one of a hundred different reasons, or a mix of them, so know one knows” Philip Tetlock

"So much of what happens in the market, in the short run, is just random, but this is seldom acknowledged. There has to be a reason the market went up or down yesterday, so the Wall Street Journal and the other papers call up analysts and money managers and ask them why. What you usually read in the paper is simply a logical fallacy" Ralph Wanger

"One of my greatest complaints about forecasters is that they seem to ignore their own records. The amazing thing to me is that these people will go on making predictions with a straight face, and the media will continue to carry them" Howard Marks

"When I hear TV commentators glibly opine on what the market will do next, I am reminded of Mickey Mantle's scathing comment: "You don't know how easy this game is until you get into that broadcasting booth." Warren Buffett

"You should read the newspaper every day, but approach it - and all media, for that matter - with a healthy sense of scepticism" Jim Rogers