Thursday, June 16, 2011










More importantly, look at his weaknesses:


























Is that the sign of a team that takes winning seriously?




Timothy said...

Just a point you missed.
Betemit pre-Moose had a good chance of being a Type B free agent when the season ended.
Betemit post-Moose will not be.
That fact alone has likely done more to hurt Betemit's trade value this month than any skid could.

Eric said...

Concerning the inter-league play: It happens that the Royals have three games at St. Louis this weekend, then they play 6 games at home, which they can treat like regular AL games, before heading to Colorado and San Diego for the last 6 NL games.. So, if they think they can go the first 3 games without an extra hitter, they might try it this week. Then, after the home stand, if they think they need to make a change, bring up somebody for the last 6 inter-league games.

Nathan said...

Rany, I love reading your blog, but I'm listening to your Rany on the Radio podcast right now, and I'm pretty horrified. RBIs? Really? Whoever you were talking to for the first 20 minutes needs to take a step back and realize that he's talking to a crowd of people who think the RBI stat is one of the least useful and interesting stats in baseball, on par, perhaps, with pitcher wins.

Wow. Alright, anyway, time to listen to Bubba talk.

mister hernandez said...

"But it feels like the Royals are so committed to their youth movement that anyone who's not a part of it is treated like an afterthought."

Were that the case, why haven't we seen Cain, Lough, Montgomery and Giavotella, too? I think the more likely reason Moore promoted Moustakas sooner rather than later is that Royals fans were growing even more restless with "The Process." I don't think it's coincidental that Moustakas' call-up came on the heels of the Royals' recent home-stand, which included a four-game sweep by the Twins.

Nathan said...
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kcghost said...

I am a big believer in evidence as opposed to conversation and the evidence is pretty clear that GMDM & Company have no clue as to how to construct a major league roster.

And it sure looks like to me, with the exception of Hosmer, all the guys who were looking like stud prospects last year are really struggling this year.

Ryan said...

Rany, I'm so jealous of your rare ability to work the word "sacrosanct" into any article. Nice work

Brett said...

I like the idea of bringing up an extra hitter for interleague. I'd love it if it were Clint Robinson. Unfortunately, that would probably look something like 1 plate appearance per game AT BEST. And with only 9 interleague road games coming up, that's not much PT. But I think he deserves a promotion, just to taste the majors.

By the way, did we just lose 6 of 7 to the two worst teams in the AL? Yikes. And now we're only a game up on the Twins, who generally look like they can't play out of a paper bag.

Brian said...

I wouldn't even say Wilson Betemit is a sub-par defender. Rany, you say that range factor is the greatest indicator of defensive ability. Well, Betemit is ranked 14th this season of all 3B with at least 10 starts. That is the upper third of the league if you void out some of the spot starts and abnormal defense from a handful of players (After all, Pujols has a range factor of 3.86 in 4 in point). I think he has defensive value along with his potential offensive production, especially for teams like the Rockies (Ty Wiggington) or Brewers (Casey McGehee). Good article, though

RA said...

Good to see range factor being used by a saber writer.

When it comes to Betemit, I think Rany is dramatically overestimating his trade value as he did with DeJesus and Callespo.

Betemit is still seen by MLB exactly the way the Royals view him, as a borderline major league player. He may well be more than that but that is not going to change the perception. He will not bring much more than a bag of rocks in a trade. After all, any team could have had him in the offseason.

wizscape said...

Betemit had one year of production. I would imagine everyone was expecting him to regress this year. There are teams out there who have injuries and/or players who haven't played up to expectations. I would think the Royals will get a few real offers if they don't just bury him on the bench for the rest of the trading period.

Kenneth said...

draft recap ?

Keith Jersey said...

what is your evidence that DM doesn't know how to construct a major league roster? The bullpen this year is a real strength. Alex Gordon is doing well in left. They traded for a CF in Cain who needed more seasoning at AAA, but will likely be up later this year. RF they had no prospects ready so Francoeur can hold the spot for awhile. Moose and Hoz at the corners, a SS who is all world defensively and is still learning to hit. So your beef is with the 2b, C and starting pitchers right? How many teams have a big bat at catcher? Exactly 1 high profile free agent pitcher, Gil Meche, has been willing to come to the royals. They are trying to develop from within and catch lightning with low risk veterans like Chen and Francis. What more can they do? OBP is up this year, they have a handful of guys who could wind up with 20+ HR is they stay in KC all summer (compared to none last year). I can go on and on.

I hear this complaint all the time and its tiresome. The Royals entire system was barren when DM took over. Think of all the moves you wanted him to make over the years, would any of them have led to the Royals making the playoffs? He is doing exactly what he needed to.

I would have liked a college pitcher this year in the 1st round but the 4 worth picking went 1-4 for the first time in history if I have read correctly.

Antonio. said...

Keith..? None of that has anything to do with roster construction.

Roster construction is about 13 pitchers, middle infielders starting in the outfield, left fielders at first, COF in center, catchers at third, no back ups for MI...

Adrian said...

I think the Royals brought Moose up when they did so he could make his Major League debut in his home town, in front of friends and family.

I do not think Betemit's trade value is seriously affected. For one, scouts can still scout before the game. They see his work in the cage. They can check his body language, monitor work habits, and ask around about him—as they also check out Melky and Frenchy, et al. Also, it's not like they're wondering if he's going to become a .340 hitter or turn into an above average defender if he got more work. In all likelihood, any team trading for him would use him like the Royals are now—for spot starts. National league teams might think to use him as a pinch hitter.

How many more wins are the Royals going to squeeze out if they started to pinch hit aggressively for Escobar (or Getz) in the late innings of tied or losing games with runners in scoring position? My hypothesis is this: Not many.

It seems like you’re nitpicking.

Antonio. said...

Developing + winning trumps development plus losing

steak said...

Chris Getz has the same OBP as Jeff Francour (.311).

This says a lot... about both players.

Keith Jersey said...

Except for 13 pitchers (which I agree with as a short term solution to overworking the 6 rookie relievers), all the rest of your points are managerial decisions, not general managerial decisions. Besides, what middle infielder is starting in the of? What cathcer is playing 3b? What left fielder is playing 1st? What are you talking about?

Willie said...

Draft Recap, please :-)

Antonio. said...

Those were just examples. And they're not managerial decisions. Moore makes the decision who is on the roster and who isn't. Hillman/Ned had to play Bloomquist in the OF because their bench was short. LaRue played 3rd due to being short on the bench and unexpected injuries. Overworking rookie relievers? They have options for a reason. Send them down. Tell the bonehead you hired not to run Collins out there every inning...tell him that relievers can go more than one inning per outing...these are managerial moves. But the defensive/offensive moves? They're from having the incorrect personnel on the bench and that's all on the GM. And this isn't the first time we've seen 13 pitchers, so you can't blame it on having so many rookies in the pen. Moore is very bad at roster construction.

Keith Jersey said...

Well they aren't very good examples and that is my point. People just spout off about his skills in roster construction but there isn't much actual evidence. The team has stunk for years. DM's entire job has been to get some talent on the major league team. Now for the first time in a decade that appears to be the case and you are agitated that he is carrying 13 pitchers for a month? Its a little ridiculous is all. Why don't we criticize him for things that matter, not how many times Larue was forced into emergency duty as a 3b

Antonio. said...

They are great examples, superstar. Alcides slides into third tomorrow and breaks his leg in the third inning. Who is playing short? It has nothing to do with where the team is or where the team was.


He's terrible at roster construction. And what does rebuilding the farm system have to do with it? No one in this conversation is ranking neither his ability to build a farm system NOR his ability as a GM overall. They're pointing out one of his flaws and it's a BIG flaw.

Nathan said...

Antonio, I would suggest that if that's all roster construction is, roster construction isn't all that important. If Escobar gets hurt, Betemit plays short for six innings, no problem. Aviles would be called up the next day. Worst-case scenario--and this seems rather unlikely--you lose one game. Is there anything about the current roster construction that substantially hampers the team's chance to win?

Nathan said...

Also, let us take two things as given: (i) Dayton Moore is an intelligent man, and (ii) he's been around baseball for a long time. Now, it's been said that "GMDM & Company have no clue as to how to construct a major league roster." Examples of having "no clue" include going without a reserve MI and carrying 13 pitchers, among others. But which seems more likely: that Moore has no clue, or that he has the same clues we have, but has rejected them for reasons of his own?

All this criticism presumes that there is no good reason to carry 13 pitchers, or to go without certain backup bench players, etc.. But do we really know that? A GM's job is to be smarter than the conventional (or even sabermetric) wisdom. All 29 other teams already know everything that is public knowledge. To win you need an edge. A GM who always did things that make sense to smart fans would fail for lack of one.

That's why all the criticism of GMDM's roster management seems overwrought to me. First, even if the critics are right, it might add up to a win or two over a whole season. Second, the critics may not be right. When our GM does something contrary to common sense, we should try to figure out why it might still be a good idea, instead of suggesting that he has no clue. He obviously has a clue, and he might have more than we do.

Lance said...

Pitching, pitching, pitching. Starting pitching. The two best potential starting pitchers are working as set-up man and closer. Crow and Soria have a chance to be legitimate #2 and #3 starters. I still think Hoch can be a #5. If Duffy (or even Teaford)can somehow be a #4 that only leaves a #1. Re-sign Greinke after next year and things are set in the rotation.

Eric Huffman said...

Draft recap, Rany!

KCDennis said...

It is risky not to have a true backup middle infielder on the roster--Betemit could stand in the spot, but I can't believe he'd be real effective at either. My theory is that they're shopping Betemit while Aviles works on his stroke at Omaha, and he gets called up to back up 2B, SS, and 3B when Betemit is moved.

Antonio. said...

Handcuffing your manager is the edge we all should hope to have in life.

John said...

I'm guessing the Royals haven't had a number of serious offers for Betemit, else he'd be gone. Maybe they're keeping him up to make sure that Moose isn't overmatched in the first few weeks. In theory, I think that a good move would be to trade Betemit for whatever he's worth, go ahead and bring up Giavotella, and then you have Chris Getz as a backup IF. Getz hasn't played any SS in the majors, but played both SS/2B in the minors, so I'm sure it's something he could handle, especially since Escobar's not likely to be sitting, ever.

John said...

And it's really hard to watch Getz and Escobar coming up in the 9th, although Billy Butler will likely hit for the pitcher.

Adrian said...

I'll bet you Mike Aviles is closer to Wilson Betemit as a "SS" than he is to Alcides Escobar. I'll bet the same holds true for Getz.

gsmith601 said...

Still looking for a draft review?

Michael said...

To be fair, though, Adrian, just about every other SS in the majors is closer to Wilson Betemit than Alcides Escobar. He's that good (in my opinion).

Adrian said...

By the way, for his career, Willie Bloomquist has played more games in the OF than he has at 2B and SS combined.

Cheech and Silly Mike said...
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pjbronco said...

Give me a reason to be encouraged about Duffy. The dude can't be averaging 4 innings per outing and is almost always over 90 pitches in those few innings. Doesn't seem to get people out, even on the occasions when he doesn't just get smoked. I think the young guys coming up will hit. Should we believe that the upcoming young pitchers will pitch? Ugh.

Michael said...

PJ, young pitchers always take more time to acclimate to the majors than young hitters. Especially true for starting pitchers. Very few starting pitchers come up and pitch even average right off the bat.

Kenneth said...

Not that it's a comparison but Max Scherzer was traded from Arizona because he didn't do well out of the gate. I think he's doing okay in Detroit. Tommy Hanson had struggles coming up for Atlanta. A lot of pitchers struggle is all I'm saying. If I remember right Jered & Jeff Weaver were pitching at the same time and Jeff was the better pitcher for the Angles. Patience.

pjbronco said...

Can't confirm this, but heard a rumor that Connie Mack was hired to manage the A's. Pretty sure that makes him the second oldest active manager in the majors at the moment.