November 19th 2018

ASEAN summit held amid rising China-US tensions


On November 13th-15th Singapore hosted the 33rd Summit of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and related meetings with senior officials from China, Japan, Russia and the US. Thailand assumed the chair of the bloc at the end of the summit.


Geopolitics was a key theme at the ASEAN summit this year. Issues such as growing global protectionism, the persecution of the Rohingya ethnic minority in Myanmar and the situation in the Korean peninsula were discussed. However, prime importance was given to the rising tensions between the US and China. During meetings with South-east Asian leaders, the Chinese premier, Li Keqiang, sought to emphasise China's expanding economic and military footprint across the region, and said that China shared their concern about rising global trade protectionism.

The US vice-president, Mike Pence, took several veiled swipes at China, saying that there was no place for "empire and aggression" in Asia. He also spoke of the need "to respect the sovereignty of our nations and the international rules of order", a reference to concerns over China's growing influence and militarisation of islands in the disputed South China Sea. His comments foreshadowed a more aggressive speech targeting Chinese policy designs for the region, delivered at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) leaders' summit in Papua New Guinea on November 17th-18th, and followed a speech in October, in which Mr Pence signalled a tougher American stance towards China.

The ASEAN summit meetings showed the extent to which South-east Asia is rapidly becoming the subject of intensifying strategic competition between China—keen to reclaim its historic position as the predominant power in Asia—and the US, which is determined to limit China's influence. Across the ASEAN region, attitudes towards the two superpowers differ. Singapore tends to take the middle ground; Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos heavily favour China; Thailand and the Philippines have recently become more pro-China, as they hope to court investment; while Malaysia has moved in the other direction, taking a more favourable stance towards the US. 

Impact on the forecast

Our view that the increasing US-China tensions will pose significant geopolitical risks in the ASEAN region in the short term does not need reviewing in light of developments at the summit. 


Featured analysis

Politics | July 4th 2019

ASEAN countries forced to navigate US-China tensions

Politics | January 22nd 2019

Prospects of concluding the RCEP look dim

Economy | November 28th 2018

ASEAN 4.0: a region in transition

See all