Another Civil War Looming in the Horn of Africa

The US and other donor countries have been largely silent about the brutal killing of over 500 peaceful protesters, presumably in part due to the Ethiopian government’s strategic relationships on security and peacekeeping. But these strategic relations can be better served by a stable and democratic government rather than a fragile and autocratic regime, which is most likely to fall soon under the weight of people’s insurrection.

By Dawit Giorgis,











If civil war begins in Ethiopia it will be unprecedented catastrophe the likes of which has not been seen in Africa. It will also create an opportunity for extremist like al-Shabaab to flourish in next-door Ethiopia, which has a 40% Muslim population.






68 thoughts on “Another Civil War Looming in the Horn of Africa

  1. I have never believed in the possibility of civil war in Ethiopia; but after what their information minister has to say; it is very real thing. i am hoping things will come down and they talk to solve their problems. You know, we live under the hoover dam and nothing is good can come out when the dam to come lose. If Ethiopia to explode, Eritrea will pay the price of TPLF’s stupidity. there is one way out; TPLF must go or else, we are all in trouble.

    1. They need to strike with one voice (refuse to go to work for a couple months) the whole country economy will shutdown with in two weeks the government will collapse.

      1. I don’t understand why the author of this article thinks the USA cares about Africans? Does he think the USA is God? The USA does not see the horn of Africa as significant economically, diplomatically, or in terms of its (USA) security. The people of the horn of Africa need to rise up and demand of their rights. No none is going to give African people their rights. African people need to obtain their rights and defend it themselves.

        1. Exactly my thoughts, well said. The US will hang on and support woyane as long as they can because he’s the best kedami they can find. But when the point of no return is reached by Ethiopians, US will not only drop woyane but start demonizing it too.

  2. “ካብ ተማህ ጐረቤት
    ካብ እሾኽ ምንድርቤት

    እዝን ከምዝን ዝኣመሰለ ኣበሃህላ ወለድና ኣብ ማዓልታዊ ሂወቶም ክድቅሱን ክትሱኡን ናብ ኣምልኾም ኣዘውቲሮም ዘዕርግዎ ጸሎት እዩ። ኮይኑ ግን ሂወት ብእትምነዮን እትደልዮን ኩሉ ግዜ ኣይትጓዓዝን እያ። ብዙሕ ተጻባኢ ዕንቅፋት የጋጥማ። ስለዝኾነ ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ድሕሪ’ቲ ነዊሕን መሪርን ብረታዊ ቃልሱ ብነጻነት ምኽታሙ ብሰላምን ቅሳነተን ክነብር ዕድል ኣይገበረን። ጸሎቶም ኣይሰመረን::

    ወያነን ለኣኽቱን ቅሳነት ኣይሃቡናን። ኲናት ከፊቶሙልና። ኢኮኖምያዊ ማዕቀብ ገረሙልና። ኮታ ኣሎ ዝበልዎ ሸርሕታት ኣሊሞሙልና። እዚ ስስዐ ፡ ቅንኢ : ዕብለላ ዘንቀሎ ሃተምተም ክንዮ ዕንወትን ዕንቅፋትን ድልየቶም ከዐውት ኣይከኣልን። ።

    እንተስ ተዓዲልና ርኸብዎ ኢሉና
    ኣይዓረገን ጸሎት ወለድና
    እቲ ሓሳድ ኮይኑ ጐረቤትና

    ንሕናስ ኣይደሓናን ኣይቀሰንና
    ምስ ወያነ ኣይተረኽበን ኣማን
    ሰላም ከሊኡና ከሳሲ ሓያላን

    ቁንጪ ህዝቢ ናይ ጥፍኣት ኣላሚ
    ከምቶም ኣቦታቱ ዓማጺ ራሳዪ
    ልኡኽ ባዕዲ ናይ ዞባና ጎርቢ

    ብዋጋና ክነግስ ክጉብልል
    ዓባይ ትግራይ ኢትዮጵያ ክትውክል
    ወያነ ተሊሙ ኤርትራ ክወርር
    ሓገዝ ኣመሪካ ኣሚኑ ክስዕር

    ሕልምን ትልምን ኩሉ ተሓምሽሹ
    ወያንያዊ ስርዓት ሓደጋ ወዲቑ
    ህዝቢ ኢትዮጵያ ይ ይኣኽለኒ ኣስሚዑ

    1. Raee,

      I always enjoyed your poems very much!

      One question I have is, I always thought that “kab hesum gorebet, kab eshok medibet Yedhenena “ is my grand mother used to say. Does “temah” mean “hesum”?

      1. Thank you so much Haben.! I am glad you got the time to read the poem/s, and valued it. It is a great deal and encouraging for me.

        Cane Libero is right. Also ተማህ ማለት ሩጉም/ሓሳድ ሰብ ኮይኑ ንኻልእ ሰብ ሕማቕ/ኩፉእ ዕድል ዝምነን ዝሓስብን ባዕሉ ክፍጽሞን ክገብሮን ዝኽእልን እዩ።

        1. Raee,

          No, thank you for all those great poems!! Please keep them coming.

          I learned a wonderful word tonight and I thank you for it. I’m sure other have learned too!

        2. Raee,
          You taught me a word (ተማህ) I never heard, I was thinking stingy or cheap … I think it is exactly what cane libero and Halhal were thinking. — cane libero & Halhal, Correct me if I am wrong.

  3. Truly until the final stage i don’t expect the big institutions (UN, EU, AU, us etc) will act in favor of the oppressed Ethiopian Masses, just looking the past 4 decades around the world, tells everything, rather People as started united need to synchronize and organize their effort knowing they could do more, i was listening the discussion in ESAT (Amsterdam release) some tips people could do..I agree People can kneel the system within a short time, it needs coordination and organization. For sure i can’t wish nor imagine a sort of total social chaos, thus could be havoc to everyone the consequence.

  4. “…of human rights violations in Ethiopia; as a result Genocide Watch is classifying the situation as a genocide alert.” As Amhara and Ormo are coordinating efforts it’s clear who would the target be. Should TPLF should Tegaru to leave Ethiopia before it’s late?

  5. Lets start with one fact, the writter of the article happens to be dergu maj who sold his country for money. Next fact, EPRDF doesnt have amhara or oromo protesting but few idiots that claim to represent 70% of the population working against peace. They love the idea of civil war on tegaru but forgot to mention, EPRDF is never been a one group party, per the people of Ethiopia. No amount of twitter trash talking can bring us down. We will let them talk as we clean out our own house and pick them of one by one. It was in fact written by the one and only Meles.

    1. Well, the author happens to be smart enough to see the writing on the wall for Derg and abandoned the regime before anyone else. Some might say his intutions have served him well. I just don’t want see genocide in my next-door neighbor. I think it is wise to closely follow his recommendations, the major players are.

      I couldn’t believe my eyes, and thought Meles was resurrected, when I saw that clip appear on one of the websites. The background work of that clip was something too. I still can’t understand the reason why one would bring him from death, except to prove that TPLF is ruling even from the grave. I may say that this has infuriated quite a few Ethiopians.

      You said cleaning the house? Soon, we shall see who will end up in the dustbin.

      Appears that your Gen. Tsadkan is in cahoots with the major!

      1. More like, the Maj is married to some shabo chick and lost his danm mind. He might be smart with military tactics but never a leader material much less to advice policy. The reason we brought up our jegna is to let Amharu an Oromo people know there isnt TPLF but EPRDF. Second, we wouldnt want them to think the gov is working against them but for them. Twitter freedom fighters would want them to belive there is this so called amahar, oromo protest but its more like, shabo agents dying behind thier laptops for civil unrest. Last, we want to them know how this whole thing has been cooked up by diaspora idiots and no such thing is wolkiyte issue or Oromo land grab. Once we educate few crazies, we will go finish what Meles started and most importantly, we might have to load few people again and send them back to Asmera. We shall see what Getachew Aseffa report indicate next week. Stay tuned.

        1. You appear to know more than me about the personal life of the major. Nevertheless, the point now is not his personal life but what is looming for Ethiopia. TPLF should follow his recommendation to the word and spirit of the article, some already have!!

          Typical of the TPLF, I think you still believe that Amhar and Oromo are so demented to the point that they don’t even know when they are taken for a ride. don’t you? Well, this is 2016 and there is a new breed on the seen and you better watch out!

          It is a known fact, what TPLF is capable of doing best— terrorizing, bulling and deporting innocent mother, children, elderly. If there was Olympics for it— hands down, you got the gold medals on all the categories!!

          Getachew Assefa the idiot! I’m sure Kinfe is turing his grave!

          What about your Gen. Tsadkan? Appears that Tekelhaimanot is following suit too?

          1. Those people that came out were not the were mislead and not the rep of Amhara or Oromo. If that was the fact, EPRDF wouldnt have lasted. Those that came out were in fact irrational or as you puy it, demented indeed. Maj Dawit is a sick bastard that has hate for tegaru. If he didnt say one word when we were being killed, red terror or mom crying cuz forced national service as your leader is doing, what right does he have to tell us anything? He should roll over and die. Getachew however, is the real deal. Even CIA dont know what to do with him, he is that smart and lover of mama Ethiopia. The same guy that brought us the number 2 gim7 leader from Yemen. Imagin that for a second. Gen. Tsadekan has his own views like a private citizen but we can also see why Meles kicked him out now. We will drink Raya beer for his love of country but thats where we draw the line and tell him like the Americans, thank you for your service.

          2. Only TPLP supports would believe that the EPRDF exists. The vast majority of Ethiopians think that there is no EPRDF, but TPLF. Even Adissu Legese believes that let along Demeke the sheep!

            “The major is sick and hates Tegaru”, really? Do I need to remind you what he has done when ordering Nechi Lebash (Tigraru melisha) in Eritrea? He loved you all then, what happened now?? We know our history well!!

            “National service as in Eritrea”, you must be kidding? Sawa is what left you Eta-major-shum crying for all to see after Tserona. Remember your kelfe serawit 20?? All history!

            If you are proud of Getachew Assefa, you must be at the bottom of the barrel. No one else you got who can deal with the present reality in the country? Like I said, he is an idiot and a liability. Are you guys down to him?

            I’m sure you know what people in Gondar are drinking? Raya is in and Dashin beer is out. Now, they are working on Col. Demeke beer!

            By the way, doesn’t Raya belong to Wello? Amhara are claiming it.

        2. I think you are sick, People are tired of woyane. No matter what the consequences, most people want TPLF gone. That is the bitter truth. TPLF myth without TPLF, Ethiopia is gone. Now people are saying be it. What more would you like to hear? You have spilled blood everywhere. Peoples’ anger is passing the boiling point. I’m seriously worried, the next round of volcano will decimate your Tigray. No one will stop it!!!

      2. Well said Haben but Suntuk thinks by closing his eyes and presenting the most stupidest excuses to will save woy-ane, nope things are approaching OROMIA time!!!!

      3. Selamat Haben;
        I ain’t trying to divert you from the topic, however when you said the author happens to be smart enough to see the writing on the wall of Derg and abandoned the regime before anyone else, you pressed me forward to shed light on this murderer ex-derg Major (shaleqa) Dawit Weldegiorgis. In 80s Major Dawit
        murdered so many Eritreans. He was surrounded by sell-outs Eritreans like EPLF wedo geba Tedros, Issac Tsegay and another Eritrean I withheld his identity because his kids are active members of YPFDJ. At the end, some Eritreans might think I discredited his analysis but the truth is I’m trying to inform you the true color of the monster Shaleqa Dawit Weldegiorgis.

        1. Hi Yacob,

          I’m well aware of the Major’s actions in Eritrea, trust me. It all started with “neche lebash” and then graduated with huletefna abeyotawi serawit. I was just highlighting to Sentek as to why he should give some weight to the article.

          1. Habenye, lets face it. If the devil himself came down to tell shabo camp how bad and evil woyani is, you guys will take it seriously enough to accuse us. Truth to be told, EPRDF is the best thing that ever happened to Ethiopia and the horn. We have managed to connect Sudan, both of them, Somalia holding election, kenya to Djibouti are connected economically, its not even possible to seprate us. As for this sorry Maj who sold his own people for money, no logical person will give his take on anything he has to say any weight except the exterem toxic diaspora and well, you people. If anything, he has managed to take away any credibility left in the so called opposition. But rest assured, we will silence them all when we get any chance. Promise.

          2. I don’t think you believe what you just wrote. You can’t be comfortable about the direction Ethiopia is heading, unless…. I just don’t want see genocide in my doorsteps. Let alone the peace and unity of East Africa, you guys have trouble holding your own.

            I hear that your dreadful General escorted Machar all the way to DRC.

          3. The direction is as it was before, just wonderful. Whats missing for sure is Meles and the new PM has a big shoe to fill. But, civil war in Ethiopia? Really? Its not even remotly close. I am actually tired of being called crazy when i call home yo ask if all is good? The response? Why wouldnt we be? When i ask about protesters, they heard people screaming but between the consistruction work and club goers, they cant even hear what he hell they are screaming about, only in diaspora. Sudan on the other hand, in few weeks you will see why they call us Axumawites.

          4. Not only the majority of Ethiopians but also other horn countries disagree with TPLF on the direction of the country. I thought civil war was already undergoing? Genocide might be following. Heck, TPLF’s ethnic identification cards will come handy then.

            I got few weeks to see what “Axumawites” would do in S. Sudan. I’m afraid it will be more of the same, fiasco!

            By the way, Axum and TPLF mean the same to you???

          5. Habenye, you are smarter than that. If it wasnt for horn countries didnt back us, Abay wouldnt have started. Djibouti leader wouldnt live in Addis, Kenya wouldnt sight oil pipline two weeks ago, Somalia wouldnt hold an election, Bashir wouldnt have backed Abay and S. Sudan wouldnt call us for help. The only one left is our own Wolo born stepbrother and his goons. Last, TPLF is used by your crowd to suggest tegaru is ruling Ethiopia, which is not true. Back in those days, the same crowd used to say Amharu to suggest, they were ruling Ethiopia, another lie. Shabo and its agents has a hard time accepting the fact, TPLF is one part of EPRDF, as there are Amharu, Oromo, South with equal say in gov. Axum is the last glory that came to Ethiopia with success that made white people nervous. EPRDF is following that same route, thats why Meles became King Ezana.

          6. Unless you give up on EPRDF and believe that TPLF is on the steering wheel and on the switch and everyone else is in the backseat and dark, you will never be able to see what is going on in Ethiopia. Equal you say??? Give me a break! By the way, the Amharas and the Oromos in the EPRDF you talking about were our POWs. Do I need to say more? You welcome!

            East Africa on board with the TPLF government, all fantasy! What does Abay got to do with Djibouti, Somalia, or even the Sudans? Are they buying bonds too??

            I think, by now, the whole world understands how your historians script(ed) history. I’m sure the present day tale about TPLF and Meles will be pushed in schools as history to your next generation. Remember, TPLF’s documentary “Terara yanketekete tewlede”? Really?? which terara? Shere-endaselasie? We all know what happened there. You must be daydreaming about akranat Sahel, when you documented teraras, because there was none for TPLF in Ethiopia. So, please don’t get carried away when documenting your own history.

            Ezana and Meles….. I’m sure you making few enemies by putting the two in the same sentence.

          7. Habenye, wedi afom has been misleadibg his own for a personal gain. I know for fact, there is no back seat or baby seat, only EPRDF. For the record, POW’s arent serving currently but willing to learn if you have facts or even names. This is exactly why we are making circles on shabo, basic facts are needed before acting or talking. If you look into basin countries intitives, it will give you better insight on where Ethopia is heading, to the top and thats due to Meles.

          8. Don’t waste your precious time to argue with Sintuq, the home grown agame. One of the more lethal and dangerous beliefs a demented wey’ane and her cronies hold is God is on their side whcich is why they are killing the demonestrators in a daily basis because the Oromo and Amhara are wrong and the wey’ane are right. Suntuq is enjoying all the insults he receives because “leiba leiba entebluwos luwa luwa zibeluwo yimeslo.

    2. Listen to this you Woyane beggar. Your Wayne beggar and western pimp calling Ethiopians “safari” in their own country and homes, in this case the Amhara people:))
      You beggars, spilled too much shit in the public domains and it is all out there for everyone to hear it for themsleves.

      1. And let me guess, as an Eritrean, you care so much for Amharu or Oromo to speak up for them? I wish you worry that much for your own youth and fix that land of yours before its too late.

          1. She is hilarious LOL 🙂 I didn’t know the whale was invited to be displayed yet again. I bet it was unbearable to watch.

    3. I have no interests to get involved in your country internal affairs but you can’t deny the fact that the Oromos and others are protesting and rather then listening to their grievance your government is shooting them dead, TPLF have fallen way out of line man, serving the Americans to brutality its own people ,stealing elections, looting poor farmers from their land, shooting dead innocent protesters etc, as consequence of this stark TPLF objective and its brutality against its own people and the TPLF using the name of Tigray, millions of innocent Tigrayans will pay for the crimes committed by TPLF against the non Tigrayans, it’s like Somalia all over again, in 1991 after the overthrow of Mohamed siad barre a genocide took place in Mogadishu, the Darood tribes of Mohamed siad barre were slaughtered, men hanged from trees, woman raped, properties looted by the rival hawiya tribe they were funded and armed by Mengistu (btw I’m from the Darood tribe I fled Mogadishu with my family, we Darood’s live in Puntland, Jubaland and the Ogaden region of Ethiopia).

      Most of the properties in Mogadishu are owned by Darood people from Puntland.

      If a Somali can kill another Somali just because of a stupid tribe, I’m sure an Oromo, Amhara or any other non Tigrayan can easly kill another innocent Tigrayan because of TPLF stupidly, obviously it wouldn’t reach this far but we Africans are animals sometimes and anger takes over and we end up doing horrible things to fellow human beings.

      Why do you even have Article 39? I’m sure article 39 of the Ethiopian Constitution stands to grant all peoples of Ethiopia the right to self- determination, so why dnt you let OLF and ONLF conduct a referendum in Oromia and Ogaden through peaceful means? Or even maybe have a proper federalism like the one in Somalia, Mogadishu doesn’t interfere the affairs of the ferderal member states, it’s shares funds and resources.

      Ps I dnt like the G7 I have no idea who do they represent, I thing they are the left overs of Mengistu foot soliders and I think they are bad news but the OLF and ONLF and the other armed rebels should be brought from the bush, after all they were once part of transitional federal government of Ethiopia in 1991 to 1995.

      1. I just want to ask you one question or you. You don’t have to answer, if you do I appreciate it. Is Ogaden part of greater Somalia ?

        1. My friend Greater Somalia is long dead, it die with Mohamed siad barre so in this century there’s no such thing called Greater Somalia.

          Ogaden doesn’t wanna join Somalia and why would they? since the entire Somalia and Djibouti both agreed to elevate the level of their partnership with Ethiopia to enhance economic integration, regional cooperation and share resources of the three sisterly nations.

          We are working to create a free zone, an economic zone in the horn of Aftican just like the east african community a free movement of goods, people, labour, services etc.
          We are moving together, hand in hand, towards the same common destiny which will benefits us and serve as a strong foundation for our economic integration.

          1. Well, don’t ever count Eritrea out then! We are ready to do our part to the peaceful and prosperous Horn for all to enjoy then!

            Imagine that you can sail from Massawa and have lunch at Assab, branch in Djibouti and dinner in Mogadishu or vise versa! Imagine the Rad Sea of Eritrea and the Indian Ocean coast of Somalia to sail and vacation on all over the Islands. I see the future if we stamp-out the spoilers!!

            I think if we all work together, we can do it sooner than later!

          2. That’s nice but what about Isaias? He pushed Eritrea way too deep into Arabs hands, the arabs are using Eritrea for all kinds of evils things.

      2. First sir, TPLF is one part of the gov, its EPRDF. In Oromia, there are corrupt officals like any other region but TPLF is not the one looting, its their own beast. Again, TPLF is used to suggest, only tgaru is leading the entire nation and that came directly from shabi camp. Second, the terrorist you mentioned were part of the group that agreed on the consistution, including article 39. However, if you read it, it has an amendements that goes along with it, its not black and white. Not to mention, 95% oromo never denied being Ethiopians as well as ogaden. At this point, its way too late too bring them cuz Ethiopians as well as West knows, they are not for peace or for the groups they claim to rep. They would rather sit in the West and ask US, Euro not to support as instead of talking to the people they want to lead. Finally, please go back an loom at 2005 election and protests that came after it. This one mini compare to the last one, let alone a civil war, we wont even give an inch to shabo agents. Somalia is not Ethiopia brother.

        1. I kno EPRDF consists of four political parties aka the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Oromo Peoples’ Democratic Organization (OPDO), the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM) and the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM) etc, but EPRDF is a cover for TPLF to maitain its domination over Ethiopia because most of these political ethnic parties have no control neither do they have any influence whatsoever in their respective regions, infact TPLF was the one which created the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO) after OLF left the coalition.

          What can of federalism does Ethiopia practice?

        2. Sentekuwaqo, yes as you, 95% Oromos never denied being Ethiopians, but they are hating Woyane to the death. By the way, Woyane is on the brink of grave, it is better for you join the tide which is pushing Woyane out than being buried with Woyane.

  6. Addis prepares for a protest rally joining nationwide uprising that calls for an end to tyranny

    Residents of Addis Ababa will take to the streets on Sunday calling for an end to the tyrannical regime joining the nationwide uprising in all directions of the country despite brutal and deadly crackdown by TPLF regime forces.







    In Robe, Bale, Oromo region, security forces on Wednesday shot indiscriminately at the thousands of protesters killing at least one (pictured). Video shared on the social media show security forces shooting at protesters who were peacefully marching down a street.



  7. US intelligence agency STRATFOR argues,

    “….result of their uprising will be. A change of leadership could bring greater political freedoms, such as allowing outlawed opposition groups to take part in free and fair elections. On the other hand, it could also lead to prolonged conflict and instability. If the resistance against the government reaches critical levels, Desalegn could decide against an armed struggle and instead take political measures to liberalize or transfer power. Regardless of how this situation develops, Ethiopia’s Tigray-dominated government may not be able to sustain its hold on power for much longer. And though the current protests may be Desalegn’s first major challenge, they will likely not be his last.”

    1. You can call me Agame, but give an answer to this question.

      What will happen if the poor people of Eritrea rises to protest peacefully against the one man dictatorship to claim equality, justice, freedom, and release of political prisoners?

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