Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Charles Krauthammer: The Shifting Middle East: What's Next

We are at the end of a historic era. Post colonial phase
Self delusion in the West regarding the Muslim Brotherhood.
It was only a question of time before they learned how to use the mechanisms of power and democracy to control Egypt and turn it into an Islamic state.
The coup shows that clearly Islam is not the answer. It brings dictatorship and totalitarian rule and in the end it cannot succeed. Where else was there to go in Egypt?
The great thinking was that Islam would liberate the Arab from economic and cultural despair.

Two kinds of Islamic rule.
a, Iran
b. Turkey
They have different features. But CK thinks that after the coup it is not clear that the people think that Islam is the answer for the future of the Middle East and the post colonial age.
CK thinks that the brotherhood had a shine of being out of power. But if you perform like Morsi without any interest in democracy, and the people saw with disdain his performance to undermine democracy. he has no regret what the military did. They may have saved democracy.
He criticizes the US administration. The military of Egypt is in the same light as the military in Turkey as the guarantor of stability, secularism and democracy.
He does not believe that there is a necessary trajectory of leading the Arab world and Egypt into confrontation with Israel. More of a rosier view of the future.
More renewed cooperation between Egypt and Israel militaries. A good sign for the future.

Syria- likened to the Spanish Civil War in the 1930s. Big powers using their proxies.
the arc is Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. 
this is why the gulf states are terrified of Iran.
Assad's fall would be in our interest and would be a blow to Hezbollah and defeat for Iran. Passivity of US administration has been tragic.
If Syria falls who inherits it. No one! it will fall apart. a weak failed state which is still preferable to a Syria run by Assad or by the jihadists.
US administration should be trying to bring down Iraq.
Iran is the elephant in the room.
The reason Netanyahu agreed to the peace process is all about Iran. Everything is about Iran. The peace process is going nowhere. Netanyahu will do anything to appease the US in order to deal with Iran.
CK believes that there is ambiguity about Iran. All he has wanted to do is get out of the Middle East.
The US is not serious about stopping Iran. Will the US give Israel the green light to go after Iran?
CK speculates that maybe the Israelis can't do bomb Iran effectively. Maybe that is the real issue why they have not launched an attack yet.
Yet Ck questions why the US administration is even engaging in the peace process. The Palestinians will not recognize the final line which is to say "We accept you." Abbas will not say it. It is a waste of political capital. it tells him the administration is doing this as a diversion from all the issues they cannot and should be doing in the MIddle East.
He really believes that there will be a confrontation with Iran and that is why Israel will appease the administration to get it to act on Iran.

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