The Housing Chronicles Blog: Why it's still so hard to find buyers for homes

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Why it's still so hard to find buyers for homes

Home prices are down, affordability is up. So why is it still so hard to find buyers to close the deal? A story on explains:

...while the median price for an existing house has tumbled 8% from $230,100 to $212,400 since its peak in 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors, many potential buyers still see asking prices as expensive.

And they're not wrong. That $212,400 house, after all, costs 39% more than it did back in pre-boom 2001 when it sold for about $153,100. Prices in red-hot markets such as Miami became even more inflated during the boom and are still up about twice as high as they were in 2001.

So while homes are selling at a discount, they're not on clearance - not yet anyway. Peak to trough, the median-priced home nationwide is projected to fall as much as 20%, bottoming out around $185,000 by late 2009, according to a July report from Wachovia.

"Houses may be more affordable, but they will probably be even more affordable next year," says Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight, an economic forecasting firm. "So why buy now?"...

According to the Federal Reserve Board, about 85% of lenders, worried about falling prices and rising foreclosures, have stiffened requirements for borrowers in the past three months. Those with a credit score of 600 or lower cannot get loans at all, says Keith Gumbinger of HSH Associates, a mortgage information publisher.

The upshot: 21 million, or 13% of those who have credit records, many of whom would have qualified for mortgages during the bubble, can no longer do so.

Those whose credit scores are high enough to qualify for a mortgage will likely pay more. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which set the lending criteria for most loans, in November will require a 740 score, up from 680 for buyers to escape a surcharge that ultimately increases their interest rate.

As a result, the 33 million Americans whose scores fall between 680 and 740 (roughly 20% of adults with credit histories) may have to pay half a percentage point more to borrow. On a $300,000, 30-year loan, that would add about $100 to a buyer's monthly payment..

Buyers also face higher interest rates, which allow them to borrow less. In mid-2004 a borrower with good credit could have qualified for a rate of 5.87% on a 30-year fixed $300,000 loan. That translates to a monthly payment of $1,774. Now, with the rate for the same loan at 6.57%, the same monthly payment could support a loan of just $278,500.

Back in the day, option ARMs and other exotic mortgages with low teaser rates helped struggling purchasers stretch to buy houses that they could not otherwise afford. Those deals have largely disappeared...

And while banks once allowed a homeowner's monthly principal, interest, taxes and insurance (PITI) to make up as much as 45% of a family's before-tax income, now buyers are restricted to using only 32% for a house payment. If PITI rises beyond that limit, banks consider the loan unaffordable and the family cannot receive a mortgage...

If you live in an area dominated by financial companies or car makers, two sectors shedding jobs in the current downturn, you may encounter even less appetite to buy.

If the economic turmoil continues, vacation destinations like Las Vegas or Orlando could suffer a drop-off in business that would leave prospective buyers with less in their pockets...

"Nearly a quarter of potential buyers are on the sidelines waiting for some form of encouragement," says Walter Molony, spokesman for the National Association of Realtors. Maybe they're looking for some sign that houses have truly become more affordable. The price declines haven't done that yet.

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