BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 CALSCALE:GREGORIAN METHOD:REQUEST BEGIN:VEVENT UID:5e25a7cf17542 DTSTART:20191127T180000Z DTEND:-00011130T000000Z DTSTAMP:20191127T180000Z ORGANIZER; CREATED:20200120T131455Z DESCRIPTION:The historical record of earthquakes is a crucial data resource for seismic hazard analysis. In every region\, the largest events are rare\, and difficult to parameterize. Where such events are associated with the ruptures of mapped faults\, defining the extent of possible fault ruptures is an important task which is guided by historical precedent. Traditionally\, in seismic hazard analysis\, if a particular rupture geometry had not been observed\, it was not included in a seismic source model. Seeing is believing is an empirical principle which fails to recognize the fundamental stochasticity of earthquake occurrence. A fault rupture that happened in the past is just one of numerous ways in which seismic energy might have been dynamically released. There are important lessons to be learned for risk assessment by reimagining earthquake history. A number of salient examples from around the world are given of this counterfactual risk perspective. LAST-MODIFIED:20191127T180000Z LOCATION:Institution of Civil Engineers SUMMARY:Reimagining earthquake history: lessons for risk assessment SEQUENCE:0 TRANSP:OPAQUE END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR