Sunday, 6 December 2015

Nullsec: The Great Reset

I'd like to explore the political and military implications of a reset within The Imperium, Eve's utterly dominant nullsec alliance. I won't explore the process by which such a reset might happen other than to say it will happen if Goon leadership (I'm pretty sure the lesser partners can't unilaterally secede) want it to happen and that I believe it is one option among many that they are thinking about.

Currently the Imperium comprises 42,738 players which is 43.19% of the population of players in nullsec coalitions. This proportion is growing, I remember it being 41% when I looked a few weeks ago. The next biggest is Stainwagon coalition at 13%.

If the 16,209 Goonswarm Federation, the Goon alliance, split off they would comprise about 16% of nullsec players, still larger than any non-Imperium coalition and would be surrounded by their former partners, comprising about 27% of nullsec players.

They could choose to retain some alliances in a much smaller coalition, effectively they can pick a size between 16% and 43% and be that size since it's unlikely any alliance spared the reset would then independently decide to leave. |They'd instead be grateful that they dodged a bullet.

A reset would not necessarily need to be a messy reset. Removal of the reset alliances from blue standings and from integration within Goon services doesn't preclude there being loose arrangements in case of some massive PL led bogeyman coalition, doesn't preclude infrastructure non-aggression deals. The status of former coalition partners could vary, eg Goons could have friendly neutrality with SMA with conflict limited to roaming fleets while persecuting FCON in Branch and burning them out of their space.

Any reset would have to consider recruitment. With no recruitment controls it's likely that everyone in a reset alliance would simply jump ship and join Karmafleet or some other easy way in to The Imperium. However it would be very useful to poach certain high performing individuals and the SIG system could be used to identify people who are worth picking up.

So early warning signs of a reset might include notable non-Goon players in Imperium sigs like Reavers and Eurogoons being encouraged to join a Goon alliance. Or lifelines could be thrown out to these selected people by SIG leaders like Asher and Mr Vee at the moment that Order 66 is issued.

Here's a list of Imperium alliance in order from the most likely to be purged to the least likely.

FCON - long has had an uneasy relationship with Goons including a principled stance against high sec ganking. Largely non-English speaking Europeans so perhaps not TMC readers.

Executive Outcomes - small almost dead alliance.

RAZOR alliance - one of the old leaders of the NC, the coalition that used to own the space before Goons. Have never been entirely comfortable in the CFC and often get assigned shitty border duty jobs - in the 2013 Fountain War they were assigned to stay home in Tenal.

The Initiative - highly independent alliance driven into the CFC by default due to the breakup of the HBC. They've always seemed to be keeping one foot out of the door anyway. For much of this year they have lived on the other side of the universe from the rest of the Coalition.

Space Monkeys Alliance - once had a well deserved reputation for being pvp averse carebears they were turned around and now are pretty effective and developing an ability to operate independently. They were fighting PH and Waffles and Brave with J4LP before the rest of the coalition dogpiled in and holding their own. Recruited massively this year to become one of the largest alliances in the game (maybe preparing in case they have to live independently?)

Circle of Two - Serbian led alliance with a reputation for being ballsy. Not very integrated into the Goon mythology. Would make excellent opponents, the ability to attack people like this is why they might do a reset.

Lawn - laid back alliance with a reputation for being nice fluffy people. Probably would not handle being thrown to the wolves well.

TNT - small alliance heavily co-dependent on Goons. They've been integrated for so long they don't seem to have done anything as an alliance for years.

The Bastion - set up as a way to collect refugees from collapsing CFC alliances when Li3 and Gents collapsed. The Mittani is alliance exec and controls their assets, Sion directs their broad policy. This could form the equivalent of Tribe to Goon's Test, an alliance that is kept around after a reset.

Resetting some or all of these alliances would give Goons an immediate and challenging sov war as well as potentially a huge influx of members (even with recruitment closed people would use vouches or contacts to try to join Goons). Some of these alliances might be able to hold their space (perhaps SMA), some are likely to simply relocate (eg INIT). We would then see a Goon war of conquest taking much of the same space that the Imperium owns now but exclusively as Goon space.

How would the reset campaign go?

First priority I think would be securing the route to high sec through Fade and Pure Blind. This means conquering space currently held by SMA as well as shoring up space currently used by Section 8 renters.

Next I think they'd burn FCON out of Branch. It's too dangerous to leave an independent and hostile FCON at the back of Deklein and it's premier space. Plus I really don't think Goons like FCON much and vice versa.

Tribute Vale and Tenal could be left to former partners and to serve as nearby frenemys to raid and spar with. These regions could see wars of their own which Goons could third party or join in late.

Would it be fun?

Burning FCON out of Branch, spectacularly revealing in grand speeches evidence of plots and treason and of course the chance for the rest of us to poke around in the resulting mess and blow up spaceships.

And the Goons would still be unbeatably secure with their enormous super fleet, their unsurpassed diplomatic espionage and organisational skills and well developed defensive set up.

And best of all we'd see genuine titan battles as regular events as the titan revamp comes in.

I really do think it's the adventure nullsec is waiting for.


  1. You mention poaching by GSF, which unfortunately is already an issue. One of the downsides for anybody outside of GSF is the fact that they have a habit of luring successful FCs away from their allies. Stripped of this talent, a number of alliances would just fold up shop due to nobody being able to lead a defense. (Being on TNT coms, I don't think things are as bad as you say, but they aren't good. We might be able to hold two regions in Tribute that were close enough to low sec to get us supplies, until the money ran out. Unfortunately, the money would run out quickly enough.)

    The other problem is that each alliance holds about as much territory... a little bit more in many cases... as they can actually live in. None of them, aside from SMA it seems, is clamoring for more space. So there is no driver to, say, drive FCON out of Branch, as GSF doesn't want the region. They just want somebody safe to keep it from being held by a hostile power. There is no motivation to kill each other. A break up would likely end up being series of semi-aligned states with territorial non-aggression pacts that would otherwise farm each other for fights.

    1. 16000 people ratting in one region seems horribly overcrowded to me. (Pure Blind being a Goon region but reserved for renters I believe).

      Plus there's the money moons.

      But of course the main reason GSF would do such a thing is because they felt it made the game more exciting for Goons. Conflict, genuine existential threats, reasons to use their spies and agents, extortion opportunities, much shorter travel time to fights, titan fights.

      If I were in leadership in one of the minor alliances I'd at least be preparing just in case. SMA clearly is, and INIT has always been capable of dropping the coalition at a moment's notice.

    2. PS another economic aspect - the other alliances produce the same products as GSF and flood the market. Cheap Rattlesnake BPCs, low moon tower reaction profits, huge isk generation from the anoms causing general lowering of prices (because money is over-supplied).

      It's hugely in their economic interests to strangle your competing production.

    3. Karma Fleet and the Section 8 pseudo-renter corps are all in GSF, so all 121 systems they hold count. And there aren't 16K people in GSF, just 16K accounts. At this point I would be surprised if that added up to more than 6,000 active individual players. That is still more than anybody else, but not so much spread over their space.

      Goons do like to do things to keep the game interesting, but they also want to hold on to the power to let them be able to choose what they want to do. Immolating The Imperium and weakens their power.

      Meanwhile, the economic aspect wouldn't change, markets wouldn't be altered if the alliances were separated relative to today. I don't think squashing any of the alliances after a divorce would change the market sufficiently to make that worthwhile. And, as I said, nobody seems to be clamoring for more sov to hold, so you if squash one alliance, somebody else is going to show up. Better to keep friendlies close to hand.

      And, finally, there is the uncertainty of the future. With Citadels coming and Seagulls vague references to a future and building star gates and more space some day, there is very much a "wait and see" vibe in some parts of the coalition just in case being big and powerful will yet be an advantage going forward.

      Basically, I cannot see any big move coming in 2016, barring any drastic change made by CCP that might encourage it.

  2. Your numbers count pilots, not players. This is a major distinction as each pilot may belong to a player already in other parts of the Imperium or even outside of the Imperium. The current system of anonymous alts make it impossible to assess player's true loyalties, as we can all be both Doc Jekyll and Mr Hyde if we so chose.
    So a player could have an alt in goons to make money ratting, and fight goons with another alt to have challenging and fun fights.

    Until the game system pushes each player toward showing their true loyalties by linking all their alts publicly, there is not much ground for any emerging power or splinter group to rise to the level it needs to be to truly challenge them.

  3. "And the Goons would still be unbeatably secure with their enormous super fleet, their unsurpassed diplomatic espionage and organisational skills and well developed defensive set up."

    Your comment right there explains while even if this reset happened, it would not help pull Eve out this death spiral of ennui. If goons cannot be defeated, even if they only represent 16% of nullsec chars or subs (I don't care which), then why fight?

    If a game is rigged, or a war's outcome pre-ordained, why fight it? The bulk of the remaining Eve player base know that goons have won Eve, and CCP is letting them suckle at the RMT teat.

    The only way Eve survives is if CCP steps in and wipes out CCP, by at the very least cutting them off at the knees by randomizing null sec wealth generation. That, and of course, resetting the entire capital ship doctrine and mechanics by turning every ship above cruiser class into a pile of minerals and overhauling every ship BPO overnight.

    Until CCP recognizes the only way to save the game is to kill off the goons by direct intervention in the game (I dunno, Drifter supercap fleets popping up and wiping out every goon structure), the game is doomed.

  4. I'm curious to hear your reasons behind why you feel this might actually happen. GSF has definitely absorbed some of the better corps and individuals from its allies, under the auspices of, "It's better that we take them than someone else does." Has this led to widespread frustration? I've not had visibility into that.

    But I'm intrigued that you came to this conclusion. I've experienced the pressure a line member is experiencing (no content, boredom, unsubbing), and I see the reasons why ally leadership might not want to stay in the Imperium. I came to the conclusion, though, that the short-term downsides of leaving were frightening them into ignoring the long-term downsides of staying.

  5. The short answer is that I don't think it's high probability.

    I think the Imperium is run by very clever people who always give themselves a range of options. This is one of the options. There's clear evidence for this, the poaching, taking the exec position in one of the subsidiary alliances, the fact that Goons did reset their blues in 2010.

    However it's currently one of the less likely options.

    I'll do a blog post soon.