Saturday, December 31, 2011

Quick Iowa Poll Notes







  1. My guess is that Paul will over-perform his numbers, particularly if the poll is of registered Republicans. Much of his support comes from folk who aren't registered as Republican, but will turn out and register to participate Tuesday.

    Going on from Iowa, I don't think there's much chance of Santorum doing well in NH; and I suspect Gingrich's chances there are fading fast. Huntsmen might gain traction, but I doubt it. Perry/Bachmann? I don't think so; they seem like Santorum; to foreign to NE sensibilities.

    I think it's going to be a Romney/Paul race to the nomination.

  2. Very interesting stuff. If Bachmann is likely to be hurt by strategic voting (an assumption or interpretation with which I don't disagree), wouldn't Romney also stand to possibly disproportionately *gain* from second-ballot votes, assuming that there's a kind of 'bridesmaid' factor with him, and that social/Christian conservatives who've been shopping for another flavor are keeping him in their back pocket as a kind of impassive compromise choice?



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