Experts Warn Government of Massive Recession, Martial Law, Food Stamp – Massive Riots, Huge Crime Waves Expected in Many US cities

The Coming Crash & The Recession That Never Ended

Some experts say the partial government shutdown could send the economy into a recession if it continues. Tax refunds might be delayed and vital benefits like food stamps may not arrive, taking billions of dollars out of circulation. Washington Post economic policy reporter Damian Paletta joins CBSN with more.





As with all forms of gambling, derivatives trading carries a certain amount of risk.
The scary part is that we are all exposed to the enormous derivative risks that the biggest U.S. banks have become entangled in, despite assurances to the contrary:
“Overall, the biggest U.S. banks collectively have more than 247 trillion dollars of exposure to derivatives contracts. That is an amount of money that is more than 13 times the size of the U.S. national debt, and it is a ticking time bomb that could set off financial Armageddon at any moment. Globally, the notional value of all outstanding derivatives contracts is a staggering 552.9 trillion dollars according to the Bank for International Settlements. The bankers assure us that these financial instruments are far less risky than they sound, and that they have spread the risk around enough so that there is no way they could bring the entire system down.”

The first question almost everyone always asks about the economy is whether or not we’re headed for a recession. The second question: will the next recession be a bad one, like the Great Recession, or will it be relatively mild by comparison? This column answers both questions, analyzing economic growth data to see where the world is headed and how rough it might be for business.

What is a recession?
A recession is generally considered a slowdown of economic activity as measured by GDP (gross domestic product) lasting two consecutive quarters or longer. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has a more expansive definition of recession:


The NBER measures economic activity as more than just GDP and doesn’t require two straight quarters of decline to mark the beginning of a recession. The Great Recession offers an interesting example of why this matters. According to the NBER, GDP declined in December of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008 but grew in the second quarter before declining again in the third and fourth quarters of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009.

This may seem like a distinction without a difference, particularly since it’s often used after the fact to identify periods of recession and recovery. To some extent, that’s true; these measures don’t do much good to address a recession that’s already happened. On the other hand, the research into recessions and the various measures that can identify when the economy is slowing or is at risk of recession can help economists and policy makers more quickly and effectively address future recessions.

Historically, recessions have lasted about a year and a half on average, but more recently, they have tended to be shorter. Since 1945, the average recession in the U.S. has lasted less than one year.

“Economic recessions are caused by a loss of business and consumer confidence,” WorldMoneyWatch president and U.S. economy expert Kimberly Amadeo explained in a post for The Balance. “As confidence recedes, so does demand. A recession is a tipping point in the business cycle. It’s where the peak, accompanied by irrational exuberance, moves into contraction.”

But when will the next economic recession take place? “Calling the precise time of the next global economic recession is notoriously difficult,” wrote Desmond Lachman, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and a former deputy director at the International Monetary Fund, in a recent article for Seeking Alpha. Moreover, nobody’s really sure how bad of a decline it will be when a recession eventually hits.

Recessions can be total and catastrophic, but most tend to be rolling – moving from sector to sector, leaving people in one sector to pick up the pieces and move on even as another is entering into the maw of the storm itself.

Recessions are also by definition deflationary. They reduce demand by reducing available purchasing power and credit, and supply (and actual price) then follows. It’s rare for a distributor to reduce the direct asking price for a product. Instead, you see larger and larger discounts. A $350 television set gets discounted to $250, then $150, then $99 because the distributor wants to move excess inventory. The notional “price’” of the television set remains the same, but once an item begins its slide into discount territory, it almost never makes it back to its base manufacture suggested retail price.

With people out of work, there are comparatively few mechanisms available for getting money back into their hands. Tax relief can work, but in general such tax relief generally puts most of the money back into the hands of the wealthiest, rather than to those who have lost their jobs and hence are paying comparatively little taxes (or none at all). Unemployment “benefits” are taxes levied on companies precisely to handle the scenario of workers being let go, but quite frequently the payment out of this fund gets political quickly, and as often as not it is intended only to supplement, not replace, lost income.

It has been said that recovering from a recession comes down to re-establishing trust. While that’s true, it’s also somewhat simplistic. A recession resets values, and stress tests businesses, and in many respects the next recession will be one of the most rigorous stress tests that most business have faced in the last 100 years.

Recessions are an economic reality. They’re also difficult to predict with any precision; they typically start before anyone even knows they’re happening and end before economists have enough data to know they’re done. Moreover, they’re also usually pretty short. Since the end of the Great Depression, there have been 13 recessions in the U.S., and 9 of those were less than one year in duration.

But the individual impacts of a recession can be much bigger and longer lasting, causing permanent financial damage to those who aren’t prepared to ride out the short-term implications and quickly get back on their feet. Millions of Americans still haven’t recovered from the Great Recession (2008-2009). Many never will.




1. Taxes must be raised.

2. Government spending will have to be drastically cut.

3. Deficit spending will dramatically increase.



Pentagon resources and U.S. troops may be used if needed to quell protests and bank runs during an economic crisis, the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Institute reported.

“Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security,” the War College study states.


A “strategic shock” could require the nation to use “military force against hostile groups inside the United States.”

“Social unrest may happen in many countries – including advanced economies” if the economic crises are not properly dealt with, Strauss-Kahn said.

“He added that violent protests could break out in countries worldwide if the financial system was not restructured to benefit everyone rather than a small elite,” London’s Guardian reported.

In a recession where consumer spending is plummeting, foreclosures are rampant, workers are losing jobs, credit is tight and markets are strained, some are warning about a worst-case scenario.









And now it will be even lower.















The conditions for a “perfect storm” are already here.

All we need is a spark.




Get ready while you still can.

Self-Reliance Is Key

The biggest hurdle of the Great Depression was a simple one: lives changed drastically – and they changed fast. Americans went from the lavish roaring twenties, where elegance and jazzy splendor perfused the nation, to scrubbing out a meager existence.

Those who survived it were never the same. They stockpiled more. They reused more and shopped for bargains, not luxuries. They fully understood that a trip to the grocery store may be the last for a very long time.

That’s the biggest lesson learned from surviving the Great Depression: Self-Reliance skills are essential to get you through the harsh times. The survival skills that our modern world has since lost.

It’s time we discover them again.










1 Comment

  1. Richard

    What few understand is that during a recession depression, the govt needs to end all taxes that are derived from the individual from the individuals work. The Income Taxes need to be eliminates. Taxes from purchases, taxes that are immediate, are the only taxes that can be obtained by a weak government.
    The citizens need their money to live off of. and stealing it in income taxes, land taxes, are just out right theft.
    We need to change from elections to lottery selections. We need a lottery system, that is how our leaders need to be selected. Define the job in terms of education, experience, work history, etc, and then pay a vetting fee and then if the person meets the criteria, their name is put into the hat and come selection day, a name will be selected for that term.

    As far as government staff, 6 years maximum. An individual can work in a government job for a total of 6 years. No More. The deep state was created by allowing career government staffers. This opens the door for corruption and evil.

    1. Lottery, not elections
    2. 6 year maximum government staff work limit.


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