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Tesla Factory Germany Update, Federal EV Tax Rebate, First Chinese Built Model 3s


hi so finally it’s time to talk about
electric cars again because as we all know the future is electric okay some
still don’t want to accept this truth and are still in denial but in the 2020s
they will certainly accept the fact that the future is freaking electric so the
EV tax rebate for Tesla are running out soon and we want to analyze will
Tesla sales therefore get a massive hit next year and then the Tesla stock keeps
pumping and pumping with all the positive developments in China and Gigafactory 3 and we also want to take a look and analyze what’s going on over
there in China then we have the official EPA rating of the Porsche Taycan and
it’s quite disappointing and we also have a sighting of the cybertruck on road and the possibility of a smaller cybertruck in the future then a bit on
Gigafactory 4 in Germany Model 3 being Edmunds’ top rated EV for 2020
and Tesla really seems to be on the way to complete full self-driving and lastly we want to analyze if Germany will become the largest electric car market in Europe in
the near future so stay tuned for these highly
interesting developments in the world of electric cars so now that the US federal EV tax
credit will run out for all Tesla cars basically by the end of the month what
will this mean for the future sales of Tesla in the US will they take a massive
hit now that the EV Tax Credit runs out tax credits for Teslas were already
down to 1875 dollars now the cheapest
Tesla you can buy right now is the Model 3 standard range plus at just shy of 40,000 okay you can also in theory buy the $35,000 standard range model if you
would directly call Tesla which probably almost no one does anyway and the
highest you can go is a fully specced out Model X at 127.5 K now considering that the majority of Tesla sales are Model 3s around 73% to be exact and that the Model 3 average prices in
the high 50Ks so around 59K as this survey has found the impact of the
$1,875 tax rebate running out soon will in our opinion not be very dramatic as
this is only 3.6% of the average buying price of a Model 3 3.6% that is not a lot and keep in mind battery costs are dropping and dropping
more and more therefore we think that Tesla will be fully capable of reducing
the average Model 3 price in America by exactly those three point six percent
next year to make up for this price difference should they see that vehicle
sales are tanking now for Model S’s and Xs of course the impact will be even
more minimal which Tesla can make up for really fast by just decreasing the
average Model S and X price by only about two percent on Tesla’s investors
battery and drivetrain day in early 2020 we expect some major battery breakthrough announcements and we also expect the price per kilowatt hour to come down to
the region of hundred dollars per kilowatt hour in late 2020 according to
this graph by CleanTechnica based on the data from BNEF research the same way Tesla surprised everyone with the extremely low entry
price for the cybertruck at $40,000 if they see their sales tank they will just
lower the price for the Model 3s by 3.6% and the price of the Model S
and the Model Xs by 2% making up for the price difference and because the
battery prices will have dropped even more by then they can do this even
without loss hence we believe Tesla will sell even more cars in the US in
2020 for this year we will see at least 360,000 worldwide sold cars an incredible 50% more than 2018 in 2020 however
we will see quite more than five hundred thousand cars being sold with
gigafactory three going online right now maybe again a 50% increase over
2019 and this expectation is now of course leading to some very nice gains
for the Tesla stock it’s really not far away any more from the all-time high at
$389 and we actually are pretty sure that the Tesla stock will make new
all-time highs in the not-too-distant future this by the way is not investment
advice this is just our opinion as always don’t go all in Tesla stock or
take huge loans you know or sell your house your wife your kids and go all in
Tesla stock please don’t do that thank you very much now this is of course in
large part also fueled by the completion of the gigafactory three the first china
produced Model 3s already are rolling off the assembly lines with
thousand cars expected to be produced by the end of this year and the ramp up
to three thousand model threes per week in early 2020 with a target of 150,000
cars to be produced annually at some point in the next few years in the
gigafactory 3 150,000 per year oh yeah and gigafactory 4 near Berlin is
actually expected to produce 500,000 vehicles annually at some point in the
next years after the ramp-up is complete so probably in 2022 2023 we will see
500k Teslas being built at the gigafactory 4 in Berlin so Tesla will
produce far more than 1 million cars per year in the not-too-distant future so
their market share will grow even more further solidifying their position as
the the number one electric car manufacturer for the next like very very
long time there will be a large empty gap between Tesla and the number-two
largest electric car manufacturer a large gap and this gap will probably get
larger even more in the next years oh yeah and talking about the competition
what are the so-called Tesla killers doing meanwhile let’s let’s take a look
at the so-called Tesla killers shall we so the so-called Tesla killer now got
its official EPA range and it’s well not as high as expected 201 miles not quite
Tesla Killer-y range right that basically means that with a 95 kilowatt hour
battery the Taycan has by far the lowest efficiency of any EV and the
Porsche Taycan is a car that starts at 105k Euros the same ballpark as the
highest specced Teslas well next time we will certainly see a real Tesla Killer
next time in other news we could see a cybertruck drive on the road at night
it looks really awesome in this shots and it’s rumored that Elon himself was
driving that beast we can see the brutal acceleration here which would even put
gasoline sports cars to shame speaking of cybertruck it’s rumored
that we will see a smaller version of the cybertruck in the future not only
to make it fit better into garages but also because of course here in Europe
the roads are more narrow you know we don’t have so much space here in Europe
everything is so cramped you don’t ever find a freaking parking spot
anywhere oh yes cybertruck of course it would be
super nice if we can have a smaller version of the cybertruck for Europe
but it will probably still be larger than 80% of the cars here in Germany
now speaking of Germany a recent report by Bloomberg revealed that Germany
actually surpassed Norway for the first time in total electric vehicle
registrations like for the first time ever in history and this trend will
likely continue so that Germany will probably become the largest electric
vehicle market in Europe now of course this is the total number of vehicles and
not per capita I mean we have to see it in context per capita Norway is so
extremely far ahead because it has like only a population of five point
something million and sells as many electric cars as Germany does with a
population 15 times higher so yeah Germany still has a very long way to go
but still these are baby steps Germany is taking and we always made fun of
Germany I mean we live in Germany and we are always annoyed by how late Germany
actually is in the electric car game and how they were lagging behind the
other European nations they were lagging behind the Netherlands behind France
they were always last ones and now slowly slowly they are starting to warm
up to electric cars and this will become even stronger now in the next years
because now the German government has introduced a 6000 euro electric car
vehicle rebate and next year also the VW ID.3 will come out which is said to be
around 30,000 maximum 35,000 euros so with this 6000 euro rebate you could get
an electric a very good electric car in the 25000 euro range
so then electric cars will actually really become quite price competitive
compared to gasoline or diesel cars so this will probably then be the tipping
point where the electric car adoption will finally finally also start taking
off in Germany and it’s really about time because we were so annoyed by this
this way we might not even be so embarrassed to live in Germany
anymore regarding electric vehicle adoption and with Gigafactory 4 being
built in the Berlin area by the way some reports suggest that construction might
even already start next month which is just insanely soon and then the planned CATL battery factory near Erfurt and now even the German car makers are
waking up on EVs we think that Germany might even have a bright
future with respect to electric cars and as always we will do our best to promote
EVs here in the Munich area hopefully in the future with a cybertruck just to
see the funny expressions of the conservative Bavarian people here when
overtaken by that beast then Model 3 was nominated as the EV of the year 2020
by Edmunds unsurprisingly as this car is probably really the best electric car you can buy right now nowhere else will you get the same combination of features and
range for a still quite reasonable price and we also have the news that Tesla
seems to be on track to release full self-driving by the end of 2020 as
planned because in the latest update 2019.40.2 that some owners have received adjacent lane speed adjustments and stop sign
detection are now available as part of an early access program these
features now will be tested so that we might really see full self-driving of
course still with supervision sooner than most thought possible end of 2020 or
early 2021 so do you agree with us that the EV rebates falling away for Tesla
cars beginning of next year probably won’t have such a dramatic impact on
Tesla sales in the US or do you think like Tesla sales will plummet down to
zero and do you think that Germany will become the leader for electric cars in
Europe in the near future like in two years that would be quite amazing right
I mean us living in Germany finally we would be more proud of Germany maybe
even and we would be very happy if you would subscribe to our channel of course
because we regularly upload two videos per week
giving you our honest opinions on spaceflight and electric cars and don’t
forget to turn on the notification bell right so see you next time see you


34 thoughts on “Tesla Factory Germany Update, Federal EV Tax Rebate, First Chinese Built Model 3s

  1. As always, thanks a lot for watching, we are so happy to have so many smart and awesome viewers 🙂 So what do you think, now it looks as if the EV tax credit will run out after all in January. Do you think this will strongly affect Tesla's sales? And do you agree with us that Tesla will grow even more powerful in the coming years with all the new gigafactories? It will be insane!

  2. Finally I bought my first EV. Friday I will get a 2013 Nissan Leaf. I hope my TSLA shares will let me get a Tesla in 3-4 years. 🙂 Keep up your great work!

  3. I live in Norway, and its alot of benefit of buying a EV here, but that will not last for long, maybe another 2 year (but this is not set yet) and then they will tax it like other cars. But its like this hype here to have a EV and the county is doing everything they can to look great for the world, so they will invest in chargers around Norway, so if the government do stay with the plan of low tax on the EV i think Noway, and the do what they plan to make city`s around here ban diesel and fuel cars, it will force the population to buy EV and become the leading country in the world of EV.

  4. Hey, how did you get that picture of me with my head in the sand? From my cold dead hands you'll take my internal combustion engine.

  5. lol I am not selling my daughter to invest in Tesla, just my son. I really don't get why germany is lagging on EV adoption??

  6. The Tesla Daily Podcast interviewed a market analyst who had lived in China and says that many luxury car sales are influenced by the need to impress potential female mates and their families. The preferred brands are BMW, Daimler and Audi ie. "BDA" and it remains to be seen if Tesla is perceived as a comparable luxury brand.
    I'd like to know what you think.

  7. TBH, I´m still sceptical about the set dates for GF4. There is a huge host of regulations to be followed and lots of paperwork to be done and bureaucratic procedures to be completed…and all of this takes a lot of time.

  8. Wonderful video Jixuan&Sebastian the content was spot on good. Truly EV cars they the are the future. I picture Tesla creating electric flying cyber car🐳🐳🐳

  9. Nice job. I'm glad for you, to be proud of your governments adoption of EV friendly policies. Maybe Tesla will make a truck better fitted for Europe. I wander how often you see Teslas on the autobaun? Love you guys.

  10. I'm happy to see this Porsche and the Ford Mustang EVs. They're not in my wheelhouse (a self-drivingish Cybertruck's my next vehicle), but I know many people who are brand loyalists of each. These are good developments, seeing their favorite brands capitulate. I wish these companies success, and hope for many more, especially since it's unlikely to come at Tesla's expense. There's a lot to be said for non-Tesla money pouring into everything from basic research to design to testing to political lobbying, and seeing that money ultimately being laid out by fossil customers of fossil fuels.

  11. Tesla is building in Germany because you two are there. They want to make it easier for you to report on Tesla. Are you close to the site?

  12. 4:38 What about my organs, heart, liver etc???
    Maybe selling underwear (Elon joke) could finance more Tesla stock.

  13. I’m not buying a model Y and a Cybertruck for the tax incentives, I’m buying them because it’s the right thing to do.

  14. 6:45 … That basically means that Tesla has to do it all by themselves. I mean the transfer to a sustainable future. I REALLY wish the competition could come up with better EVs. – So sad.

  15. Love your show

    The future of Germany 🇩🇪 is electric ⚡️

    Sadly Mercedes BMW VAG do not have much of a future in Germany

    Porsche Taycan a $6B Tesla killer is double the cost, 1/2 the range, no rear seating, no supercharger FSD AI or OTA updates
    Shows the flop it is

    Playing Tesla catch up just means you sink slower compared to the others who will sink faster by not playing EV catch up

  16. More great news ,detailed and beautifully presented ,,keep up the great work, nicely passed the 4k sub's, be 10 soon ,then the stars

  17. The only place worse then Germany for building cars is France. No idea why Elon picked Germany. ???

    The car manufacturers aren't waking up they are being forced by the European governments.

    Tax rebates don't really matter any more in the US. In fact they really didn't matter because the Tesla buying crowd would buy them whether there was a rebate or not. How long do you think S and X sales will hold up without an expensive style update?

    I do have to say Tesla is getting their act together and may be able to continue to pull a small profit going forward. They are a money losing company that has a ridiculous valuation. People say it's a tech company blah blah blah. Go check out the valuations of all the other auto makers and compare their stock price and every metric Tesla has. Tesla should be trading at $40 a share as a growing company at best. Right now I'm long Tesla but I will buy Puts before the next earnings, sell the long and puts will be paid for with a profit for me. Bet I get those puts, I'll be out 2 or 3 months and close to in the money. If you know what that means? I could sell covered calls but that doesn't have the same profit margin if I'm right.

    Good luck happy trading.

  18. I gotta get some of that Tesla stock!
    The company has great potential! They are diversifying into energy storage and solar city which could be very lucrative in the future.
    I just hope they can stay top of electric car market!

  19. Yeah, I heard a rumor that Giga 3 will start delivering to customers starting on the Chinese New Year, January 25. The paved parking lot is almost full of new Tesla cars already, and there are construction crews extending the paved area.
    The Tycan comes nowhere near a Tesla in most stats, of course, but it is a remarkable achievement; one could only wish the other car companies had taken Tesla's challenge as seriously as Porsche did. And I don't say "VW"; I say Porsche; because even if it is owned by VW now, the culture of perfectionism is Porsche's culture; NOT VW's. VW's culture is one of cheating. Porsche is a different company. To have gone from not having a single electron moving around, to producing a car like the Tycan is heroic. But no question, they will have to make yet another heroic leap to reach Tesla's upcoming Roadster. The Tycan is neck and neck with model 3; but the new Roadster is going to be a monster. I mean, what's its 0-60 going to be? 2 seconds? Because the top model S is 2.3 seconds, already! That's more than 1 G, I think … Let me do a quick calculation… Okay, by 60 miles they mean 100 km. 100km/h = 100,000 m / 3600 seconds, right? Calculator… That's 27.7777777… m/s. Divide by 2.3 and we get 12.0773 m/s^2. 1 G is 9.8 m/s^2; so 12.0773/9.8 = 1.232377 G !!!!! So the next Roadster might accelerate at 1.3 or 1.4 G's?

  20. Guys you live in Germany and are not fu%*#ng proud? 😳 there is a reason why people say GERMAN ENGINEERING! There is just no place on Earth engineering is done like it is by the Germans. Compare your car brands with just about any other brands on Earth and you will quickly see… it's only Elon that has changed that perception, though if you look at it, he is Germanic by origin, so yahh German rules engineering period.

  21. Still boggles my mind that all the traditional automakers just insist on going their own way instead of taking advantage of coop offer from Tesla.

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