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Crashes are rare. Many are called and few happen. We already had one last year. So follow these calls at your own risk. ------------- Yelnick, good disclaimer. Much as I hope there will be a crash to burst the asset bubbles so the economy can have a real recovery, there just is not enough evidence for a crash yet. On the other hand, there are some positives: 1. Copper experienced an upside breakout and made new highs. And we know copper is known to be a leading indicator of the economy. 2. Emerging Markets recently broke out from a rising wedge formation. So don't put much hope on the rising wedge also found on the DJI and S&P to lead to a crash. 3. U.S. Economy: Leading Index Climbs More Than Forecast ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan further says: "WLI growth remains close to the previous week’s record high, suggesting that the U.S. economic recovery will continue to gain strength through the New Year" We can be skeptical of the index and what Lakshman Achuthan is saying, but it is good also not to view everything with skeptism. Folks who have been skeptical of the rally from Mar really have nothing to gain. 4. BDI, another leading indicator, keeps rising, and rising. 5. The bullish Dow theory trend change that occurred in association with the advance out of the March 2009 low still remains intact. 6. And more, if you would look at different aspects, than just hold a negative bias.
The top is so elusive. Since May whenever a top is called dow hears it and responds by going up. This time round instead of going down dow is up more than 100 pts. We've seen so many articles on gloom and doom.. let's see also some articles on bloom and boom. U.S. Economy: Leading Index Climbs More Than Forecast BDI keeps rising
Toggle Commented Oct 23, 2009 on We May Have Just Topped at Planet Yelnick
Technicals aside, there doesn't seem to be any fundamentals that will cause a top/crash, at least in the near term. Increasing unemployment, foreclosures, tightening credit - I don't think these can cause people to sell. More like the market and the economy slog through, while the Fed keeps interest rates low and continues to depreciate the dollar.
Here's someone using EW that says the USD is going down much more. If that is so, dow is going up. What do you guys think? -------------------------------------------- Sumitomo Mitsui's strategist Daisuke Uno apparently correctly predicted that the dollar would fall below 100 yen post-Lehman. Now he's predicted that the greenback will almost halve to 50 Yen next year from near 90 today. What's his logic? Bloomberg: The greenback is heading for the trough of a super-cycle that started in August 1971, Uno said, referring to the Elliot Wave theory, which holds that market swings follow a predictable five-stage pattern of three steps forward, two steps back. The dollar is now at wave five of the 40-year cycle, Uno said. It dropped to 92 yen during wave one that ended in March 1973. The dollar will target 50 yen during the current wave, based on multiplying 92 with 0.764, a number in the Fibonacci sequence, and subtracting from the 123.17 yen level seen in the second quarter of 2007, according to Uno.
There's "buying frenzy" according to calculated risk:
Toggle Commented Oct 15, 2009 on Real Estate Strikes Back at Planet Yelnick
Let me say that I respect Precther's work, but his call that the market peaked in Sept is obviously wrong. Same with his calls in the 1990s, 200s, 2003..
Once again I see that all of the "P3 Cheerleaders" are out in full force. EW bloggers like Kenny, Daneric, and Binve. These guys obviously don't TRADE for a living because there's no possible way that they could actually make money being bearish and trying to pick the top in the S&P for the last 150 handles! These guys have been WRONG for a tremendous amount of time. The fact that they can continue to post charts and so-called ANALysis as if they actually still have some credibility left is downright funny! Are they updating their blogs in between their "paper-trades" and college classes at The U??? They better keep their day job. They have no idea what their doing. Buyer ( of their ANALysis ) beware. Huge CONTRARY indicators for sure! :) ---------------------------------- I used to read the analysis of the EWers.. but they have been wrong most of the time. Calling the top since May till now. Still calling.. while the market continues upwards.. :(