The fitness of a racehorse, as we all know, is of paramount importance when it comes to determining how it might run in a given race. Fit horses win races, goes the old saying.

When I lived in America, I was constantly trying new methods of establishing fitness. I read everything I could on the subject and found that everyone seemed to have different opinions.

Now I've found someone else with an opinion, and this man, Barry Blakemore, from Nambour on Queensland's Sunshine Coast, has packed his research, seven years of it, into a 56-page booklet. It makes absorbing reading, and the statistics are eye-openers.

Blakemore's studies dwell a great deal on a horse's length of time between races. He has, he says, discerned notable 'lines' of winning form from his seven years of statistical research. A bit like the old '7-Year Itch' I suppose!

Blakemore says: "A horse's fitness is very rarely static; it is either improving or declining. A young horse may improve dramatically over a short period of time and conversely an older horse may suddenly lose interest in racing.

While a (race club) handicapper has some power in penalising a horse that wins before the race he has already allocated weights for, it is generally not enough to compensate. Some trainers wisely avoid racing an improving horse in races that will attract penalties and, therefore, in effect beat the handicapper.

"It will also help to remember that a horse that finishes 2nd or 3rd, close to the winner, cannot be penalised for its next start. A classic example is the Bart Cummings-trained Kingston Rule, who ran 2nd prior to winning the '90 Melbourne Cup.

"Another thing to watch for is that handicappers can be heavy-handed towards the older horses who have won or been placed consistently in the past, but are now in decline. In general, a young horse will be well weighted; an older horse poorly weighted."

But, adds Blakemore, a horse's general level of fitness at the time of the race is more important than weight.

On Class, he has some useful information to impart, especially in his analysis of the various types of races. Some of his comments are as follows:

These races are a better type contested by restricted horses as they make their way through the restricted class races. Young, improving horses usually win two or three races in succession until they become jaded and need to spell. Beware of the horse that has won two or three in a row and is then backed up too quickly in other races (7 days apart). The owners/trainer are often trying to obtain another win without giving the horse a chance to recover from its last run.

Such races are unreliable. Usually they are for fillies and mares who find it hard to win in other class races, and are kept to race against their own sex. If the filly or mare can win mixed class races they are usually weighted out of the restricted fillies and mares races very quickly. Only the really good ones go on to win good races with the rest becoming also-rans or retired to stud. In general, the older a mare gets the more unreliable she becomes.

Generally for the poorer type of Open class horses that find it difficult to win in Open company. Usually reliable as to the fitness patterns. Watch for the quality horse with top weight or a young, improving horse on a low weight.

Much of Blakemore's booklet is split into distance-by-distance sections, starting with races between 1000m and 1100m. In each section he provides the results of his research into the winners of these races.

In the case of the 1000m-1100m races, he says the statistics reveal that horses first-up from a spell win 32 per cent of all the races, an "incredibly high figure but one which has consistently held up over the past seven years."

He adds: "The reason is that the pace is on all the way and that suits horses kept fresh (not over-raced) as against those that have had several runs in preparation for a longer distance... Another important pattern to discover is that horses that race 1 to 9 days from their previous start fare very badly.

"Also of extreme importance is that horses who have had three runs in 31 days are the poorest bets of all, producing only four winners in 150 races.

Blakemore's statistics carry right through to races between 2100m and 3200m, and there are graphs to show the analysis breakdown.

He is a keen fan of on-course betting, and the booklet includes a chapter on betting angles. He makes this interesting observation: "One thing most punters don't realise is, the more punters on a racecourse, the better the prices given by the bookmakers.

"Bookmakers will freely give better prices as there is more money in circulation. This explains why at big race venues, the overall odds with the bookmaker are more generous. It also helps to explain why on smaller country tracks, bookies frequently operate on margins of 130 to 150 per cent or more. To make a profit from the little money available, their profit margin must be higher to compensate.

"As bookmakers move into the computer age, the on-course punter can expect more variety and better prices from each bookmaker."

**'Fitness, The Key To Winning' by Barry Blakemore (published by Barrymore Publications, P.O. Box 566, Nambour, Queensland 4560).

By Des Green