A Retrospective Look at Quarterback Prospects (Continued)

Earlier, I took a look back at 10 pre-2013 quarterback prospects (2013 was my first “scouting” year, hence why that was the cut-off). In that piece, over half were from 2011 and 2012, making it a rather recent glance backwards, for the most part. 

In this installment of the same series, quarterbacks from the mid-2000’s and earlier will be under the microscope, ranging from 1998 to 2007. Just as before, some will be prospects who turned into stars and others will be prospects who lost a number of people their jobs. 

Peyton Manning, Tennessee, 1998 (1st overall, Indianapolis Colts)

Somewhat reminiscent of what we saw in 2012, the top pick in the 1998 draft came down to one very polished passer (Peyton Manning) and a raw, moldable quarterback (Ryan Leaf). Manning, who ultimately became the first pick, did too many things well and at an advanced level for the Colts to pass him up (all sounds familiar, huh?).

As good as Manning was as a prospect, his ball placement was more deviated that I had assumed it would be. That is not to say he was an inaccurate passer, he wasn’t, but quite a few passes got away from the 2nd generation quarterback, missing high more often than anything. Though, some of his passes were indefensible. The cornerback could be glued to the receiver, but Manning could dart a throw into the most perfect spot for the receiver to snag the pass. Back then, he had quite a bit more zip to make those intermediate throws than we see from him now.

Manning’s most glaring strength was his command and readiness, just as it is now. Of course he threw some interceptions, but on every play, Manning seemed to know more about what the defense was doing than the defenders themselves did. Getting to and completing pass to his 2nd/3rd read appeared easy for Manning, and he had no qualm with checking down and taking the easy yards. Simply, he was every bit of the brilliant, meticulous quarterback that he was advertised to be and still is.

This also showed in his footwork. To a point, one could say Manning was finicky because, well, he was, but it was not to a fault. Manning was constantly resetting his feet and keeping them under him, which was crucial considering how often he went to second and third reads. From a mechanical and fundamental standpoint, everything about Manning was refined and ready for the pro level.

In the pocket, Manning was not a jaw-dropper in regards to pocket movement, but it was certainly a plus and something he continued to work on until he was damn near unsackable. That said, it never seemed like the pressure was too much for Manning. Part of this relates back to his preparation and knowing where his bail out options are, but Manning kept his cool when forced to handle pressures flying at him.

Based on his draft slot and Hall of Fame career, I was not surprised by who Peyton Manning was a young college player. Then again, to entirely predict what he became would have been a tough sell for me at the time, but without a doubt, Manning appeared to be a player who could be a top 10 current quarterback very quickly. Now, 17 years later, he is one of the top ten quarterbacks in history.

Tom Brady, Michigan, 2000 (199th overall, New England Patriots)

Seeing as he is one of the best pro quarterbacks to ever play the game, I assumed that the entire NFL was simply missing something with Tom Brady as a prospect. While him falling to 6th round was harsh and unwarranted, he wasn’t a first round caliber player, maybe not even second round.

If not anything else, Brady was accurate. His placement all over the field, except maybe when throwing farther than 20 yards, was superb. Not only did he fit tight windows, but he allowed receivers in open space to get as many yards after the catch as possible. While some of that can be credited to natural talent, Brady was conscious of keeping his feet ready to make the throw. To that note, Michigan’s offense made that rather easy for him to do.

Michigan’s passing offense was not very intricate and did not ask much from Brady from a mental standpoint. A lot of what Brady did was first-read, which can still be productive when you can throw with the timing and accuracy that Brady did. But from a prospective perspective, it was a bit concerning to see, especially because he displayed some levels of hesitation when the first read was blanketed or when he was pressured to early to hit a long-developing route. I don’t mean he was Gabbert, but to some extent, he looked a bit unnatural in those situations.

To add to the concern, Brady was sort of skinny for his 6’4″-plus frame. Weighing in at just 211 pounds at that height, Brady was 3 pounds lighter than Teddy Bridgewater, who was knocked for being skinny, yet Brady was two inches taller, making him appear even thinner. Considering he wasn’t reckless to any capacity, Brady’s density wasn’t all that concerning for me, but I could see how it would have been for many “by-the-book” type scouts.

Should Tom Brady have gone in the first or even second round? No, probably not. Conversely, should he have gone in the sixth round? No. Brady appeared to be a guy that, if you got the most out of him, he could be a an Eli Manning level quarterback (a solid, respectable starter). Brady is a testament to getting into the right situation and working your ass off to be the best because he did not look destined for greatness coming out of Ann Arbor.

Michael Vick, Virginia Tech, 2001 (1st overall, Atlanta Falcons)

By now, I’ve seen a handful of impressive athletes at the quarterback position, but none quite like Michael Vick. His build wasn’t ideal and maybe his small hands lead to some throwing issues, but his blend of lateral burst, linear speed and fluidity is unrivaled. I’ve never seen a quarterback, maybe any player, move like he did. I am not convinced that Vick reached his full potential, but him being drafted where he was should not be surprising.

Whether it was in the pocket or out, Vick’s movement was stunning. Within the confines of the pocket, the young Hokie looked like Houdini. He dodged would-be tacklers so often and so quickly that it almost seemed like he was playing 6-vs-11 and making it work. Though, Vick abused his power and instigated the chaos. He thrived in it. Vick loved to wait for a rusher, use him as an excuse to “break” the play and create something outside of the structure of the offense. That works like a charm for gifted athletes at the college level {look at Johnny}, but going forward, it can be problematic {continue to look at Johnny}.

Vick’s legs were his best asset, but he also had a laser arm. His lightning quick throwing motion let the ball fly out of his hand. Vick could throw to any level of the field from just about any platform and find a way to fit the throw. Now, that is not to say Vick was a very accurate passer, but there were flashes of ball placement that would keep you wanting more. But that’s the catch: it always seemed like there was something more to be seen out of him.

Aside from more consistent accuracy, Vick’s mental prowess was underwhelming. As hinted at before, Vick did not like functioning within the fabrics of the offense. More often than not, he’d tear the seams and do his own thing. Vick did not do much to suggest that he got anything out of operating in a pro-style system.

In the college circuit, Michael Vick was a stunning player and he was absolutely electric. He had the arm and raw athleticism that could easily convince a team to take him high, like Manziel to a larger extent. As fun as he was to watch, there were definitely hindering flaws that Vick could never seem to work past in the NFL like he’d have needed to. There was a time when Michael Vick was a respectable quarterback, but taking him at No.1 overall should have been a very understood risk.

Philip Rivers, North Carolina State, 2004 (4th overall, New York Giants [traded to San Diego Chargers shortly after being selected])

In all honesty, there is a good chance that I would have missed on Philip Rivers. I can not recall a more maddeningly inconsistent quarterback prospect than him. Granted, my library is small, but still. He was such a mixed bag, as well as the ugliest mechanical passer that I have seen.

One play, Rivers would be perfectly composed and make a stunning throw, but then throw the most mind-numbing interception on the next drive. In his entirety, Rivers was incredibly efficient, but also made egregious decisions. More so than any other quarterback that I can recall, Rivers is the best example of the good being able to outweigh the bad.

Rivers was an aware, heads-up kind of player. He showed the ability to identify a defense pre-snap and make the correct adjustment, as well as understand when he had to make a throw to make it work, especially in critical situations. For the most part, Rivers seemed to know where he needed to go with ball before the ball was snapped.

His sense of pressure was impressive and allowed him to escape a number of sacks behind a bad NC State offensive line. When doing so, Rivers knew he was taking linebackers out of coverage and had the prowess to find where the vacancy was and expose it.

As aware as he was, Rivers proved to be stubborn, too. He may have identified a rusher or known that he was being flushed out of the pocket with no open receivers, but he would make the clearly wrong decision out of what seemed to be a sense of necessity to make a play. Rivers needed to play more relaxed and understand when a play was dead instead of trying to be a hero, which is what has lead to the downfall of a handful of other high-profile quarterback prospects.

As expected, Rivers displayed stunning accuracy at NC State. It is probably fair to say he was a bit less consistent with it as a young passer, but Rivers had the timing and arm talent to make the harder throws, namely over the middle of the field.

Philip Rivers was an inconsistent player, but he went on to allow his positive traits to overcome his negative ones. Rivers at No.4 would have been a bit of a tough sell for me, mostly because I would have weighed his inconsistency too heavily and over-speculated his mechanics. Seeing as he had the poise, accuracy and a mental advantage necessary to thrive in the NFL, that would have been foolish of me and I believe Rivers taught me a bit of a lesson.

Jason White, Oklahoma, 2005 (Undrafted, Tennessee Titans)

In 2003, Jason White won the Heisman trophy. Less than 18 months later, he went undrafted and never cracked the Titans 53-man roster. A lot of Heisman winners do not turn out in the NFL, but at the least, most of the others were selected in the draft and got some sort of chance at the next level. While injuries plagued White’s career, he would not have been a successful pro quarterback regardless.

White has a “spot” thrower, not a “touch” passer. He would get the ball in the vicinity of his receivers, but in most cases, the ball was placed poorly and the receiver was forced to make more of a play than they should have had to. As a result, White restricted a lot of yards after the catch and missed a number of open receivers because he could not lead them correctly and “throw them open.”

In relation to his questionable touch, White did not possess vision and timing. He was very much a “see it” thrower, but he did not have the arm to make up for that like other successful “see it” throwers do. Over the middle, White struggled to see poaching defenders and understand where the open lane was. As a passer, White needed the field to look ideal and have wide open receivers to succeed.

He struggled as a passer, but at the least, White was somewhat athletic. He was not Robert Griffin, but he had some movement skills that helped him evade defenders, extend plays and let someone find open field. That was where White looked at his best because his receivers tended to have more space, but having to rely on that type of unsustainable success so heavily was worrisome.

For all the hardware Jason White picked up in college, his game did not translate well in most every area. He was a fun, serviceable college player who was able to put up gaudy stats, but the process of his success was a mess that would not transition well into the NFL. Him going undrafted was easily understandable.

Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt, 2006 (11th overall, Denver Broncos)

To say the least, Jay Cutler has had an odd career. He was drafted to the Broncos, but eventually ran himself out of Denver and into Chicago, where he has looked like a top 12 quarterback one year then a total train wreck the next. But to digress, the No.11 selection may have been a little sweet, hindsight bias aside.

Cutler’s collegiate pocket presence was odd. His awareness and alertness left a lot to be desired, but at the same time, Cutler was very composed and nimble when he did identify pressure early enough. It didn’t seem like the rushers alone did much to phase Cutler. Though, after having to reset, Cutler’s elongated throwing motion often gave him trouble as that extra split second was too often enough to allow the pursuing rusher to pop him before he made a clean throw.

Conversely, it was Cutler’s throwing motion that helped him get the most of his arm. More so than any other quarterback I’ve seen, Cutler’s arm was like a crossbow. He loaded back, seemed to almost hold it there for a moment, then the ball came out flying like an arrow. Then again, Cutler understood when he needed to touch pass and he displayed that he could do so, though he seemed to much rather gun the ball in as hard as he could. In short, Cutler had shown that there wasn’t a window or a throw on the route tree that he couldn’t hit.

Cutler’s biggest downfall was letting pressure situations get to him. When his team needed him most, he seemed to crumble and get off throws just to get the ball out instead of doing what was best. The gravity of pressure situations seemed to be too much for him and he got much antsier, leading to a number of late game interceptions that could have been avoided.

Just as is the case now, young Jay Cutler was reliant on his arm to a fault sometimes and didn’t seem to be the most brilliant player, but he had strokes of genius that could have been argued as enough to take him where he went. For me, the top of the first round was rich for Cutler, but I don’t think I’d have argued it much, had I had a voice back then.

Vince Young, Texas, 2006 (3rd overall, Tennessee Titans)

I won’t BS my way around it: I had a hard time pinpointing what it is that would have made Vince Young fail based solely on his college film. He possessed relatively controlled athleticism, sufficient accuracy and overall arm talent, composure and the ability to not falter in pressure situations. Sure, overall was no doubt a reach and he should not have been a superstar, but after looking back at Young’s college days, I’m somewhat taken aback that he completely fizzled out like he did.

Where Young was faulty was in his field vision when standing in the pocket. Young liked to bypass reads for the deep fade, and, in most cases, there was an open receiver somewhere else in the assumed progression. Also in most cases, the deep fade option was not open to any degree. Underneath, a few throws got away from Young as he didn’t correctly read the linebacker or stared down the receiver to allow the linebacker to make an easy play.

But at the same time, Young never seemed to panic. You watch him and it appears as if he has things under control. He handled rushers well, he was comfortable throwing outside the pocket and he seldom made horrendous decisions by way of panic. Instead of forcing a bad throw, Young would make use of his legs, but fortunately, Young understood not to abuse that power and give up a ton of opportunities for easy passing yards. Simply, Young looked composed and as if the game was not too much for him to handle.

Outstanding touch and accuracy was not exactly a strong suit of Young’s, but he made a good number of tough throws and made the easy ones look as easy as they were. There were flashes of accuracy that made me think that he could have cleaned up his throwing mechanics (namely, throwing off his back hip) and thrown more consistently.

If anything, it was Vince Young‘s lack of superb accuracy and questionable IQ/vision that lead to his demise. He simply could not develop those traits and it put him out of a job. It is a shame because he showed the pocket presence, stability, athleticism and raw arm talent to be a good quarterback. Like I said to begin with, I won’t lie: I’d have bit on the Young hype and got burned.

(Side Note: Vince Young reminded me a lot of Marcus Mariota. Mariota is smarter and more proven with his vision, but watching Young looked eerily similar to what I’ve been seeing with Mariota. That’s not to say I’m knocking Mariota for this directly, but it’s given me perspective.)

Jamarcus Russell, LSU, 2007 (1st overall, Oakland Raiders)

To a point, Jamarcus Russell was an exciting college player with big play ability and a couple of physical traits that translated really well to the professional level, but he didn’t play quarterback it a way that could sustain success. Russell thrived off of letting a play break, directing a deep receiver and throwing in his vicinity. That works when you are playing for a national championship caliber team, but when you can’t make the easy throws and make quick-twitch decisions, that play style will get you cut.

Russell had one of the most baffling arms that I have ever seen. While he showed he could launch the ball down field with ease and velocity, his shorter and intermediate throws, especially to the boundary, flew flat. Often, they would fall short of their target. This can be partially blamed for his lack of proper lower body drive, but even then, it was clear that Russell should have had the arm to make these throws, yet he didn’t.

On a tangent, Russell was just not that accurate in general. He seldom showed that he could make throws without breaking the play. People said that about Johnny Manziel (and exaggerated it), but with Russell, it was much more of a legitimate issue. Russell struggled to make too many of the basic throws that successful quarterbacks can hit with a blindfold on.

At the least, Russell did show that he wouldn’t crumble under pressure, either from rushers or the game itself. He was not outstanding there, but he showed enough poise to keep plays alive and not derail a drive with a terrible turnover because of pressure.

I couldn’t tell you what more there was to like about Jamarcus Russell than there was to like about Logan Thomas. Really, Thomas appeared more refined. Russell had all the physical traits, but I learned the hard way that there is so much more to look for than physical traits (*pours one out for Zac Dysert*). Russell looked the part, but he couldn’t play the role well at all. He was a massive project that could not develop in the (many) areas that he needed to.


As you may have already picked up on, Philip Rivers and Vince Young were the two that taught me the most and gave me a better perspective. Sometimes, certain traits, for better or worse, will outweigh others. Projecting the quarterback position to the NFL goes beyond physical traits and your eyes can deceive you (a la Rivers’ horrifying mechanics). 

I still have to keep narrowing down which traits can outweigh which and what are the best indicators of pro success based on their on-field aspect, but this project has helped. It has given me perspective and an understanding of the history of prospects prior to me starting to “internet scout.” 

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High school senior. Quarterbacks are my self-proclaimed expertise.


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