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Everything posted by Djdazzle

  1. Well at least it can’t get worse than this. The 12z will be better, only for that reason. These charts make 2007 look pleasant.
  2. Just catching up. I saw Tamara’s post earlier - is the gist of it that we should pretty much ignore the operationals?
  3. Finally, after days of dross, the ECM provides some promise!
  4. If it was winter, you just know that the uppers would be rubbish and it would still be rain.
  5. Totally not supported by the anomalies though. They are strongly indicating high pressure in the medium term.
  6. I’m fast getting to the point where I’m not even looking at ECM.
  7. The UKMO has been little better. Atrocious consistency!
  8. As long as one of the big three show unsettled, that will be the outcome. It always seems to happen like that. The UKMO has showed some more settled solutions over recent days, but not supported by other models.
  9. I wouldn't - it's happened loads of times. The last 5 days have been the most sunless that I can remember in June. This June is rapidly descending into one of the worst second halves I can remember. Another test of the models vs anomalies for the weekend. A trough parked over the UK was certainly not a favoured outcome. If that happens, we really are one of the unluckiest places.
  10. The trend away from trough domination from midweek onwards seems to be continuing.
  11. Glad it’s hot in Iberia. When we do get our plume, it will be a hot one!
  12. I do love your positivity, even if it’s a bit “glass half full!” @Alderc is a bit more “glass half empty”, but he has a point that the next few days are crud for summer. Need a good ECM - this morning’s op was vile!
  13. I wouldn’t trust UKMO much more than ICON at the moment. The last couple of times when it’s put out a half-decent 144 chart, it’s disappeared on the next run and not supported by any other model.
  14. Well at least it can’t get worse than the last couple of days and the next few!
  15. Not really - just saying that in that run, it’s a perfect storm in that everything aligns perfectly badly to produce it. Therefore, the chance of it verifying is very low.
  16. Don’t fret about 144 onwards. The changing from run to run is ridiculous.
  17. On Monday, the UKMO 144 was showing 23C uppers for Sunday! Hoping UKMO is correct this time, but I’d like to see some support from the other models.
  18. There was no anomaly support for what we are experiencing now. They are useful, but not as infallible as some lead us to believe.
  19. Nothing overly worrying IMO. There are some good background signals. The problem with the NWP models is that they sniff a pattern and go hell for leather to continue it.
  20. Well it is the model thread! But it’s a bit hard to rely on them at the moment as they are all over the place. My gut feeling is that we won’t be stuck in a westerly pattern for too long.
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