How many teams from the SEC have a realistic shot to make the College Football Playoff? While it could be argued that 13 schools (sorry Ole Miss) in the league could do it provided they go undefeated in the coming season, ESPN claims only four teams have a shot of making it into the Playoff in 2018.

How did they arrive at that number? ESPN has now come up with an analytic device for measuring how likely a team is to make and win the College Football Playoff. They are calling the metric — ESPN Analytics: Playoff Predictor.

To come up with their findings, ESPN Analytics identified five key factors that determine each team’s chance to reach the playoff: Strength of Record, FPI, Number of losses, Conference championships and Independent status.

Based on this criteria, only four SEC teams rank in the top 20 of ESPN’s Playoff Predictor analytics. According to ESPN, Clemson has the best chance to make the Playoff at 67% and winning the title at 24%.

Here are the percentages provided for each SEC team:


  • Playoff appearance: 47%
  • National Championship: 14%


  • Playoff appearance: 46%
  • National Championship: 13% 


  • Playoff appearance: 17%
  • National Championship: 3% 

Mississippi State

  • Playoff appearance: 3%
  • National Championship: Less than 1% 

Sidenote for Auburn, according to ESPN’s research, the Tigers have a 25 percent chance to advance to the College Football Playoff with a win in the season opener against Washington in Atlanta. If the Tigers drop that game, Auburn has only a 9 percent chance of reaching the Playoff.