Sunday, May 16, 2021

US-Russia Relations: Will the US Beat Russia in Gas Exports by 2050?

US-Russia competition never seems to end. Both nations are always competing in many ways, be it military, security, political or trade. EurAsian Times analyses US-Russia competition in-terms of Energy Export Performances. Can the US overtake Russia to become a leading gas exporter by 2050?

Firstly, below is the list of Top 10 Gas Exporting Countries in the World

  1. Russia
  2. Qatar
  3. Norway
  4. Canada
  5. Netherlands
  6. Turkmenistan
  7. United States
  8. Algeria
  9. Malaysia
  10. Indonesia

The US is moving forward with the vision to be the net exporter of energy by 2020-22 and the larger goal is to maximise the US energy sales abroad by the year 2050. However, the EIA predicts differently. According to the Energy Information Admin. Even if the US enjoys the best of conditions, even in the coming thirty-two years the US will not be able to surpass Russia’s export performance. This is evaluated, keeping in mind Russia’s performance over the next few years.

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The EIA stated that for the US to achieve it’s 2020 vision it will need to focus on High Oil Prices to generate more production of oil and natural gas. But in that case, US will also be faced with higher prices and lower consumption for petroleum products leading to a decline in imports for net petroleum.

Why US-Russia 2050 Energy Performance Does not favour the US

According to the Energy Ministry of US, a rise in the gas exports is expected by 2050, which under increased prices for oil will generate 236 billion cubic meters. With lower priced oil, however, it will amount to 174 billion cubic meters as predicted by the EIA. The forecasted numbers add up favourably for Russia.

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While predictions don’t always come true, it has already been seen that an increase in oil prices have led oil and gas companies in the US to opt out of the OPEC freeze deal. These companies are also maximising output and lowering prices on their own. While the US could surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia in terms of production, the EIA states that this would lead to a disrupted supply and demand balance in the world; also lowering the oil prices.

What do the Experts have to say about the US-Russia 2050 vision?

According to the Deputy Director of ACRA, the logic for the US is higher prices means more extraction and vice versa. Another Sr. Analyst from NESF says that even in the Asian-pacific region the demand will not grow as per the surging production in the US at high prices for the raw material required for production. The EIA forecast is especially valuable for investors who may be considering investing in the oil and gas industry. Currently, US stands at number 7 amongst the gas exporting countries of the world.

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